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jay powell. no, this guy is the worst. so the notion he can pull this off, looks like everyone is starting to become a believer and it is not just main street, folks. take a look at this. these are professional newsletter writers. this is the bullishness. this is rocketing high. at a level typically associated with the market coming down. these are the experts. they get paid a lot of money on their newsletters. they're extremely bullish. retail sentiment investors, 51% bullish, that is extraordinarily high. i will say this, i know the wall street loves to the diss the retail investors they have been spot on last couple years more so than the pros. everyone on the same page. that kind of makes us a little bit nervous. i want to say one thing about the retail investor and i want you to pay attention to this. we always wonder where is the buying going to come from? three years ago, 3 trillion-dollars in margin this is how much money they borrow to buy more stock. the more they borrow at some point y
jay powell. no, this guy is the worst. so the notion he can pull this off, looks like everyone is starting to become a believer and it is not just main street, folks. take a look at this. these are professional newsletter writers. this is the bullishness. this is rocketing high. at a level typically associated with the market coming down. these are the experts. they get paid a lot of money on their newsletters. they're extremely bullish. retail sentiment investors, 51% bullish, that is...
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Mar 21, 2024
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we think about jay powell promising to be volcker 2.0. i have to be honest he feels more like burns. the reason burns is burns he blamed congress, he cannot do the right thing because congress kept browbeating him. do you think there is some sort of pressure? we heard from elizabeth warren, bernie sanders and maybe pressure from the white house on jay powell as well? >> we say on the podcast all the time, everybody has a plan until they get punched in the space. particularly fed chairman, they see any sort of stress they jump. a year ago in ma when svb headline came out, all of sudden opened up the bank lending program. that told the market they're quick to react in response to anything that is relatively negative. he is not paul volcker. paul volcker was willing to with stand it. people are saying how well jay powell is threing the needle. by a six month time period he missed the whole transitory thing when inflation was obviously not transitory. he got us to where we are right now. not ready to pat him on the back. he has a tough job pa
we think about jay powell promising to be volcker 2.0. i have to be honest he feels more like burns. the reason burns is burns he blamed congress, he cannot do the right thing because congress kept browbeating him. do you think there is some sort of pressure? we heard from elizabeth warren, bernie sanders and maybe pressure from the white house on jay powell as well? >> we say on the podcast all the time, everybody has a plan until they get punched in the space. particularly fed chairman,...
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Mar 20, 2024
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jay powell has a lot to answer for right now. in addition to that you will get what we always get on fed day the emotional moves, it is really money following money. it doesn't seem to have any rhyme or reason. we get a chance to sleep on it. a lot of times the next day is the exact opposite move. i have to tell you folks, that is when it gets really worrisome. here is the good news we'll bring back qi research, ceo, danielle dimartino booth, economist, strategist, frances donald. i will apologize for jim, i almost always call you mcdonald every time. >> if jim grant saying it no worry. charles: he can call me hey if he wants to. i'm good with that. >> me too. charles: this is point brought up a lot, danielle i will ask you, the veracity of the data fed uses to make decisions particularly government surveys. we have a table we'll share with the audience. no one is filling out the survey. so from the, even before if everyone filled it out there would be questions but with 1/3, some of these surveys how do you make decisions on an
jay powell has a lot to answer for right now. in addition to that you will get what we always get on fed day the emotional moves, it is really money following money. it doesn't seem to have any rhyme or reason. we get a chance to sleep on it. a lot of times the next day is the exact opposite move. i have to tell you folks, that is when it gets really worrisome. here is the good news we'll bring back qi research, ceo, danielle dimartino booth, economist, strategist, frances donald. i will...
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it is money of jay powell's business how many doritos are in a bag of chips. it is none of joe biden's business what uber and lyft charge at 5:00 versus 6:00. you know who cares? the consumer paying it. you know who cares in the producer either getting it or not getting it. westernty's shouldn't say they were horsing around, they should say we were trying economic calculation. sometimes you get things right, sometimes you get things wrong. is ask the new coke in the 1980s. you try things. if they don't work, you move on to the something different. the state intervening hurts the process of consumers and producers working together. charles: so i thought about you last night because now there's a proposal to take the pax tax -- tax buybacks, right now it's 1%, make it 4%. corporations reward share holders through buybacks and dividends. if biden were to get reelected and we had a 4% buyback tax, could that bolster to pay out some dividends? >> it would. and i want to be very clear that i don't want hem to do it just because it would help my book and the way we g
it is money of jay powell's business how many doritos are in a bag of chips. it is none of joe biden's business what uber and lyft charge at 5:00 versus 6:00. you know who cares? the consumer paying it. you know who cares in the producer either getting it or not getting it. westernty's shouldn't say they were horsing around, they should say we were trying economic calculation. sometimes you get things right, sometimes you get things wrong. is ask the new coke in the 1980s. you try things. if...
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charles: before i let you go, jay powell confident about a soft landing although we know there will not be six rate cuts. is this a good thing? i know you talked about in december these rate cuts being good for small caps so on that notion, small caps are making a stealth rally, should you wait for the cuts to happen or should we start nibbling there? >> small caps are totally tied to the economy. so your bet has to be the fed is going to cut rates and we're not going to have a significant slow down in the economy, right? small cap, mid-cap stocks are very sensitive to changes in economic demand. so the hope here is, that you know, for the russell 2000 to continue that rally, that, you have to have fairly strong economic growth continue. if you do, that really doesn't auger for a lot of rate cuts for the fed because of the inflationary pressure. i think this will be a real balancing act for the fed and i would be a little bit cautious. i wouldn't overweight small cap here. it is okay to be in it. i wouldn't overweight it here because of that risk. charles: i got you. lance, good stuff a
charles: before i let you go, jay powell confident about a soft landing although we know there will not be six rate cuts. is this a good thing? i know you talked about in december these rate cuts being good for small caps so on that notion, small caps are making a stealth rally, should you wait for the cuts to happen or should we start nibbling there? >> small caps are totally tied to the economy. so your bet has to be the fed is going to cut rates and we're not going to have a...
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Mar 18, 2024
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jay powell said i will not be arthur burns. i which not cut prematurely. >> yes. charles: therefore the insinuation i would rather stay high for too long than to cut prematurely. >> even if they cut-rates three times for sole of 75 basis points, as their dot plot suggests interest rates will be at 17-year high. interest rates will be higher for longer. hopefully not as high as they are. that will push a overleveraged u.s. consumer into default situations. that will slow down the economy further and we start talking about recessions. >> still given their druthers, two equal sets of risk, cutting too soon, remaining too high, they will stick with remaining too high. >> until at least july. they have to see two consecutive quarters of slowdown before getting interest rates. i still think we will get three interest rate cuts this year. charles: we look at some of your investment ideas. everyone is kind of familiar with microsoft. lily is big time with the weight-loss drug. what is rythym. >> this is the another area to play the obesity drug euphoria. $2.4 billion micr
jay powell said i will not be arthur burns. i which not cut prematurely. >> yes. charles: therefore the insinuation i would rather stay high for too long than to cut prematurely. >> even if they cut-rates three times for sole of 75 basis points, as their dot plot suggests interest rates will be at 17-year high. interest rates will be higher for longer. hopefully not as high as they are. that will push a overleveraged u.s. consumer into default situations. that will slow down the...
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Mar 12, 2024
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charles: of course coming into all of this, jay powell vowed he would not be arthur burns. he would be volcker 2.0. if he cuts too early, and mess this is up, forget it. one thing you've been emphasizing, you say, hey, forget about these overweight bets on themes. instead focus, drill down on value. one name you like is deere. you say it is best in class. you like it because of the cycle we're in and also strong fundamentals. tell us more. >> this is a really cyclical company and we're entering a low point in that cycle and if you extract the graph back on deere even further you will see it tends to outperform the s&p 500 over long periods of time. we like the low point of the cycle. we like the bad sentiment around deere today for an entry point into a name we believe is kind of entering that next leg. what i mean by that next leg, they have done really interesting work. the management team are visionaries and when you think about even the application of robotics they have ready and available for weed killing, and look at the investment they made into starlink, that change
charles: of course coming into all of this, jay powell vowed he would not be arthur burns. he would be volcker 2.0. if he cuts too early, and mess this is up, forget it. one thing you've been emphasizing, you say, hey, forget about these overweight bets on themes. instead focus, drill down on value. one name you like is deere. you say it is best in class. you like it because of the cycle we're in and also strong fundamentals. tell us more. >> this is a really cyclical company and we're...
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Mar 25, 2024
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this latest verse of jay powell has a lot of folks scratching their heads. meanwhile rotation and red flags. there is a lot going on beneath the surface. we have you covered. baseball scandal, chip wars, and president biden weighing in on real estate commissions. all that is for rob luna. past is prologue, welcome back judge roy bean and tom fitton on law fair in 2024. my latest on the casualties in the scorched earth climate change agenda. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪. charles: you know the old saying, follow the money? you can also say maybe follow the targets. so last week i pointed out wall street continues to stress their targets, right? and here's the thing they have been so tepid, they have been very, very tepid. coming into the year you can see i mean the numbers are really low. the street was looking on average 4891. we blew that past a long time ago. societe generale, 5200. this is what you will start seeing now. sort of like, if things are freight, this is what happens. it is really weird, if i jump off a pier i will get wet. o
this latest verse of jay powell has a lot of folks scratching their heads. meanwhile rotation and red flags. there is a lot going on beneath the surface. we have you covered. baseball scandal, chip wars, and president biden weighing in on real estate commissions. all that is for rob luna. past is prologue, welcome back judge roy bean and tom fitton on law fair in 2024. my latest on the casualties in the scorched earth climate change agenda. all that and so much more on "making money."...
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Mar 14, 2024
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we have fed watcher danielle dimartino booth jay powell, ha he has a tougher task than 24 hours ago. before you give up the hope of the american dream folks, katrina cam pens joins me. it is harder and harder but not i am possible. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪. charles: so this morning we saw what amounts to back-to-back economic data come in exactly the opposite of what wall street expected and what investors actually hoped for. i'm talking of course the ppi number, producer price index. that is on inflation. that was hotter than consensus. there were retail sales which increased less than expected. here is really what is interesting also. it was far less than expected if you factor in the prior month's revision. i will tell you about that in a moment. like the day before when the cpi number was hotter than expected equity futures initially declined, bond yields went up, what you expect happen but then opposite direction. we're going where we are supposed to now. some say this is the kind of stuff you see during market bubbles but maybe that is an even deeper exp
we have fed watcher danielle dimartino booth jay powell, ha he has a tougher task than 24 hours ago. before you give up the hope of the american dream folks, katrina cam pens joins me. it is harder and harder but not i am possible. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪. charles: so this morning we saw what amounts to back-to-back economic data come in exactly the opposite of what wall street expected and what investors actually hoped for. i'm talking of course the ppi...
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Mar 29, 2024
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daniel, you just heard from jay powell. do you think he might agree? >> well, thank you very much, lauren. i think that's the big mistake that we are seeing, is that the inflation reduction act has become the inflation perpetuating mistake. the decision of the government to massively increase spending and massively increase deficit which is, ultimately, printing money has made inflation worse. i am particularly concerned about the fact of the genuine reading has been revised up. the january reading. and the february reading when we rook at the tree months' trend and the six months' trend is actually very negative if because with it's accelerating. so what it's showing, basically, is that the government is unnecessarily hitting up the economy and -- heating up the economy and making americans poorer at the same time. the reality is that disposable income has fall opinion yet again. so i think it's a very dangerous situation for the fed to call the success of having beaten the inflation problem because it's not beating anywhere. remember that inflation i
daniel, you just heard from jay powell. do you think he might agree? >> well, thank you very much, lauren. i think that's the big mistake that we are seeing, is that the inflation reduction act has become the inflation perpetuating mistake. the decision of the government to massively increase spending and massively increase deficit which is, ultimately, printing money has made inflation worse. i am particularly concerned about the fact of the genuine reading has been revised up. the...
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Mar 11, 2024
03/24
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i don't know if jay powell took a shot after he saw that or not? >> i think long-term the fiscal deficit is baked into the cake. regardless of election outcomes, regardless of a lot of things, a lot is demographic driven. a lot has built up over a long period of time. that is constant multitrillion dollar deficit which is a background stimulus for certain parts of the economy that are receiving it but also structurally inflationary and the tight monetary policy can restrict some areas of the economy, particularly the interest interest rate sensitive areas, commercial real estate all the usual names. the problem when the public debt is so high relative to the size of the economy like it is right now, the higher interest rate also blows out the deficit significantly and so the overall monetary policy becomes somewhat less effective at cooling down the economy or cooling down inflation than it would if there was a lower debt environment. so one of the reasons i'm bullish on assets like bitcoin or gold or say energy stocks, for example, is because i th
i don't know if jay powell took a shot after he saw that or not? >> i think long-term the fiscal deficit is baked into the cake. regardless of election outcomes, regardless of a lot of things, a lot is demographic driven. a lot has built up over a long period of time. that is constant multitrillion dollar deficit which is a background stimulus for certain parts of the economy that are receiving it but also structurally inflationary and the tight monetary policy can restrict some areas of...
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Mar 19, 2024
03/24
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jay powell has worked hard to temper excite amendment over potential fed rate cut after his own pivot last october sparked a freeding frenzy on wall street, assumption of six or seven rate cuts this year. for tomorrow that's not what we're expecting. the stock rally that happened after that, that is something to behold, that important piece, main street, they have been left out in the cold through all of this. even though the fed is supposed to be separate, make no mistake there is a ton of pressure on powell and co to bring rates down. most of it unseen but some of it absolutely in your face like elizabeth warren and other democrats. they're push being the fed to cut-rates for clean energy. this coming out today. and then last month we also saw a push from different members of government, senators asking for them to cut-rates to help address affordable housing. but the question that we have here is are they looking at things beyond that? because when it comes to high rates, we know that there is a lot of issues when it comes to interest. congress would be pressuring the fed to cut fo
jay powell has worked hard to temper excite amendment over potential fed rate cut after his own pivot last october sparked a freeding frenzy on wall street, assumption of six or seven rate cuts this year. for tomorrow that's not what we're expecting. the stock rally that happened after that, that is something to behold, that important piece, main street, they have been left out in the cold through all of this. even though the fed is supposed to be separate, make no mistake there is a ton of...
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Mar 27, 2024
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that explains why jay powell keeps insisting he wants to keep cutting rates because he thinks he has a long way to go. but the market isn't so sure he has as far to go as he thinks. >> you're no so sure as well, right? >> no. i think it is probably closer to 4%. that is why these high rates everybody talked about hasn't restrained the economy. i heard a lot of people over the last several months the economy can't handle these high rates. yes it can. they're not as far away from the neutral rate as people think. charles: wow. good stuff, we always learn from you. again congratulates. i tell you put something out there that was completely against the grain. you stuck to your guns, and now everyone is joining your camp. we'll talk to you real soon. >> thank you. charles: my next guest head lonely positions when it comes to the economy particularly with her call on the short-lived recession. i'm not sure if anyone is jumping on that bandwagon yet. i will tell you, that the data is moving in her direction. natwest markets head michelle gerard. i want to show you the atlanta fed tracker. i
that explains why jay powell keeps insisting he wants to keep cutting rates because he thinks he has a long way to go. but the market isn't so sure he has as far to go as he thinks. >> you're no so sure as well, right? >> no. i think it is probably closer to 4%. that is why these high rates everybody talked about hasn't restrained the economy. i heard a lot of people over the last several months the economy can't handle these high rates. yes it can. they're not as far away from the...
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but if he's just looking at what fed if chair jay powell is following, those are the headlines. there was a huge scandal that broke out yesterday because word leaked that the bureau of labor statistics had incorrectly calculated inflation and that it came out higher than it should have. so it was all over the bloomberg chat rooms and what have you, charles, but it's clear that a lot of the data simply if does not reflect reality. for the past six months, we've had about a 60,000 job cuts announced -- charles: right. >> but that's shot up. that shot up in january to more than 103,000. february, just 29 days, 80,000. and we've heard today bnsf if, laying off in four states, we've heard from moderna as well. the announcements keep coming, charles. charles: right. and, of course, you know, the it's -- the thing that always is start thing to me is that when these economists all get on the same page and things come out, the data comes out and it's completely opposite what they predicted, they circle the wagons. none of the members say, well, maybe we were wrong, mea culpa, no, it was
but if he's just looking at what fed if chair jay powell is following, those are the headlines. there was a huge scandal that broke out yesterday because word leaked that the bureau of labor statistics had incorrectly calculated inflation and that it came out higher than it should have. so it was all over the bloomberg chat rooms and what have you, charles, but it's clear that a lot of the data simply if does not reflect reality. for the past six months, we've had about a 60,000 job cuts...
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Mar 28, 2024
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charles: listening to what you just said, thinking about the last time we heard from jay powell, he is saying we may have a moment or moments like this. ultimately the economy is going where they think it will justify three rate cuts. do you think there will have to be a point sometime soon where the fed acknowledges what the markets are telling us? >> well, so, right now actually, in light of governor waller's comments last evening which were a bit more hawkish, you have seen in terms of fed fund futures markets less than three fed cuts expected. that is lower than so the so-called dot plot. powell says the dot plot does nothing have to do with the policy path. we have taken four rate cuts out of the mix since the beginning of the year and moved start point to june or july. that's a moving target which is is based on the data obviously why things like tomorrow's pce report and next week's jobs report remains key to those expectations. charles: i like for the last year, and we should have you will at answers tomorrow after we get xy, z, this or that and we have almost always more quest
charles: listening to what you just said, thinking about the last time we heard from jay powell, he is saying we may have a moment or moments like this. ultimately the economy is going where they think it will justify three rate cuts. do you think there will have to be a point sometime soon where the fed acknowledges what the markets are telling us? >> well, so, right now actually, in light of governor waller's comments last evening which were a bit more hawkish, you have seen in terms of...
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Mar 22, 2024
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then, of course, we're going to assess the madness of jay powell a couple of days after the fomc. judy e shelton and don luskin on that. and commodities are breaking out, so where are the best opportunitiesesome and lessons from jerry seinfeld on the need for several revenue streams, especially in the age of runaway prices. and by the way, why is america so unhappy? if our happiness is fading fast. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪ ♪ charles: all right, so this morning nike, actually after the bell yesterday, reported their numbers, right? but this morning they were competing with fedex to see which one of these would be the hottest stock in the market, right, this session. and then came the conference call. the company actually says, well, they see sales slowing down in north america. by the way, despite if what the media has tried to paint the mare ty. also -- narrative. also china sales are weakening as well, so management offered tepid growth expectations and they're going to focus on cutting $2 billion in costs over 3 years. that was around 31 minutes into th
then, of course, we're going to assess the madness of jay powell a couple of days after the fomc. judy e shelton and don luskin on that. and commodities are breaking out, so where are the best opportunitiesesome and lessons from jerry seinfeld on the need for several revenue streams, especially in the age of runaway prices. and by the way, why is america so unhappy? if our happiness is fading fast. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪ ♪ charles: all right, so this...