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Apr 17, 2024
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i think the market figured it as jay powell had said. it doesn't make sense the june cut given where inflation is right now. >> right now we see two sectors, utilities and also real estate. in your mind, what does that signal? it feels like days ago. i was a couple of weeks ago. everybody is talking about this broadening of the market and now we're seeing contraction. >> two sectors are real estate and utilities. you've got inflation, you've got a fed that can't be cutting interest rate sensitivity. that's not what you want on your equity exposure. you want companies participating the growth, and real estate and utilities don't do that. >> again, your w.e.x. word of the day is "premonetary," waiting for something bad to happen. you seem to be a boxing fan. you gave us notes, an old mike tyson quote. everybody is surprised until they get punched in the mouth. it had to be a bit of a surprise. what do you advise clients to do? >> i think you've got to have a plan to stuck to when you do get that pup. in the mouth. that's when it's difficul
i think the market figured it as jay powell had said. it doesn't make sense the june cut given where inflation is right now. >> right now we see two sectors, utilities and also real estate. in your mind, what does that signal? it feels like days ago. i was a couple of weeks ago. everybody is talking about this broadening of the market and now we're seeing contraction. >> two sectors are real estate and utilities. you've got inflation, you've got a fed that can't be cutting interest...
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Apr 29, 2024
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how does jay powell process these two reports? obviously, the markets and the economy are two different things. >> i think jay powell made a good comment about talking about numbers. u.s. is a large economy. it doesn't mean it is a hot economy, it is just a large economy. the estimates are startlistartl. two years ago, they said was 941,000. now 3.3 million. that is clearly having an impact on the demand. you see supply is catching up, but when you have increased demand, supply has to catch up i still think that we are going to have a cut this year. >> you are saying it is not reliable >> it does give you reliable you saw the number insurance is going up. one goes up and the other goes down you have to look at the composed number if you are sitting down and thinking is inflation at 3.5 no do we go to the shop every day there is a measure and there is a measure. i think jay powell has to sit back and take notice he looked through the price increases on the good side and increased rates much higher. he will look again and do it late
how does jay powell process these two reports? obviously, the markets and the economy are two different things. >> i think jay powell made a good comment about talking about numbers. u.s. is a large economy. it doesn't mean it is a hot economy, it is just a large economy. the estimates are startlistartl. two years ago, they said was 941,000. now 3.3 million. that is clearly having an impact on the demand. you see supply is catching up, but when you have increased demand, supply has to...
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Apr 11, 2024
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why don't we start first with the fed chief, jay powell? here's a i go who doesn't get any credit for anything. he is the rodney dangerfield of central bankers. he's constantly being second-guessed, like he's clueless. that's just plain moronic. powell's a pragmatic individual who doesn't surrender to politics or orthodoxy. he's the least promotional public figure in america today. he had to deal with a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic which caused elected leaders to spend money like crazy. he accepted it. he never bemoaned it. when he realized the pandemic was under control he raised rates 11 times to stamp out inflation. each time inflation snapped back so he had to keep tightening. he realized there could be negative consequences if he didn't stop. that's right. we're now in a situation where inflation has cooled, cooled dramatically, even if it's still too high, and we also have an aband absurdly strong job market. it's just too strong to justify cutting rates. so it's time for powell to stand pap pat and see what happens. there's nothing wr
why don't we start first with the fed chief, jay powell? here's a i go who doesn't get any credit for anything. he is the rodney dangerfield of central bankers. he's constantly being second-guessed, like he's clueless. that's just plain moronic. powell's a pragmatic individual who doesn't surrender to politics or orthodoxy. he's the least promotional public figure in america today. he had to deal with a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic which caused elected leaders to spend money like crazy. he...
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Apr 25, 2024
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>> you know, it is jay powell who has preempted what is coming he set the stage for higher for longer the fed funds futures have adjusted what has not adjusted is the broad multiple across the stock market and that is why you are seeing quite a bit of blood in the streets at moment. >> gina, thank you colorful language. blood that streets a lot of people are scratching their heads. gina, thank you. for more on what is driving the markets and trading day ahead, head to cnbc pro at cnbc.com/pro >>> coming up on "worldwide exchange," throw out the $50,000 price tags because at the beijing auto show, we very broad appeal that's where we find our eunice yoon >> reporter: thank you, frank. elon musk elonhoped to revisit e idea of the affordable ev. he is not the only one more in a few minutes. with gold and copper prices pushing towards all-time highs, u.s. gold corp is advancing its environmentally friendly gold and copper mining project and creating american jobs in mining friendly wyoming. with a proven management team and board, a tight share structure, and a solid cash balance, u.s. go
>> you know, it is jay powell who has preempted what is coming he set the stage for higher for longer the fed funds futures have adjusted what has not adjusted is the broad multiple across the stock market and that is why you are seeing quite a bit of blood in the streets at moment. >> gina, thank you colorful language. blood that streets a lot of people are scratching their heads. gina, thank you. for more on what is driving the markets and trading day ahead, head to cnbc pro at...
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Apr 29, 2024
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what does jay powell and the fed members are looking at here? >> they are seeing the service sector inflation is hanging out at 4% and has been since december and hasn't budged a lot of that is housing, we understand, but also underlinin the shortage of skilled labor. that is what the fed is talking about that may be alleviated if not alleviated, they will bring in rates with the tie supply the fed will not expect so much spending power with all of the job creation in the job market the market is focused on the payroll survey on friday which averaged $290,000 jobs per month. if you get the survey and the job creation is averaging 90,00 since january. the spending power generated by the job market may not be as strong in the past and not be as inflationary as people are afraid of here >> i want to stick with the job market for a minute. we looked at the downward revisions with the numbers we get the initial number and get revisions. i want to talk about services. up 4% year over year goods have not changed back in the pandemic, bill, goods inflat
what does jay powell and the fed members are looking at here? >> they are seeing the service sector inflation is hanging out at 4% and has been since december and hasn't budged a lot of that is housing, we understand, but also underlinin the shortage of skilled labor. that is what the fed is talking about that may be alleviated if not alleviated, they will bring in rates with the tie supply the fed will not expect so much spending power with all of the job creation in the job market the...
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Apr 30, 2024
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if we see a dovish jay powell, that means it will decline. why do you want to invest in t.i.f.s right now? >> it is not that i think the rate of inflation is going to come down. we are stuck in the new normal of 3%. the fed cut the 2% mandate. the reason i like t.i.f.s, it is a risk in the economy. we are seeing a ton of metrics that the bite is working. they are defaulting on auto and credit cards and recently housing. higher rates are working. there's always the risk that if the fed continues, the consumer continues strong and the bite of higher inflation erodes the value of treasuries. >> okay. the fed has a big influence on the global investing environment. you say when it comes to equities, you like international stocks over u.s. names. is there a certain region you like? >> it is more about the moat of underlining economy. we see a belief the consumer in the u.s. continues to be resilient. if you look international, starting valuations are more interesting as well as dividends. it pays to pay a risk. you are paid to take risks. >> all r
if we see a dovish jay powell, that means it will decline. why do you want to invest in t.i.f.s right now? >> it is not that i think the rate of inflation is going to come down. we are stuck in the new normal of 3%. the fed cut the 2% mandate. the reason i like t.i.f.s, it is a risk in the economy. we are seeing a ton of metrics that the bite is working. they are defaulting on auto and credit cards and recently housing. higher rates are working. there's always the risk that if the fed...
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Apr 26, 2024
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it felt like jay powell in april should t shut the door on that. >> there is still a small chance it could happen. the market pricing is suggests it will be later it comes at 2.8% and we perhaps get a july cut >> i want to talk about the magnificent seven mega cap tech. we got reports from microsoft and alphabet a lot of concentration in the m market with the risk of the burst. investors have confidence in the companies. going forward, do you see the magnificent seven trade being something that continues to power the market or are we going to see rotation? >> a good question of course, it is not a bubble if it is underpinned by the fundamentals our philosophy is the area is another trigger catalyst for the direction of the equity market moving forward our view and models with pricing for eps has been suggesting that the u.s. market and especially big tech and growth companies have been priced for perfection. that means the bar to satisfy the markets is quite high. in terms of europe, the market is more fairly priced. if reports come in line with the analysts, it is okay for the u.s.,
it felt like jay powell in april should t shut the door on that. >> there is still a small chance it could happen. the market pricing is suggests it will be later it comes at 2.8% and we perhaps get a july cut >> i want to talk about the magnificent seven mega cap tech. we got reports from microsoft and alphabet a lot of concentration in the m market with the risk of the burst. investors have confidence in the companies. going forward, do you see the magnificent seven trade being...
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Apr 4, 2024
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we also had the chance to hear from the chair of the federal reserve jay powell. he said more data is needed for the fed to decide to cut interest rates. citing higher than expected readings on jobs gains and inflation. powell said the inflation has not changed his view if inflation is moving to the 2% par target. we heard from a slew of fed policymakers yesterday as investors remain split on whether the central bank will cut rates at the june meeting. one of the fmoc's hawkish members, atlanta fed president raphael bostic said he now expects a single rate cut this year. >> if the economy evolving as i expect and it will be continued gdp robustness and employment and slow decline of inflation through the year, it will be appropriate for us to move down at the end of the year in the fourth quarter. >> i want to take you to the market action this morning. equities have been trading for about an hour. at this stage, the narrative seems to be where do we go from here? how do we price in all of the comments from the central bankers and more particularly, whether we wil
we also had the chance to hear from the chair of the federal reserve jay powell. he said more data is needed for the fed to decide to cut interest rates. citing higher than expected readings on jobs gains and inflation. powell said the inflation has not changed his view if inflation is moving to the 2% par target. we heard from a slew of fed policymakers yesterday as investors remain split on whether the central bank will cut rates at the june meeting. one of the fmoc's hawkish members, atlanta...
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Apr 16, 2024
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yielding 4.63 it is worth knowing we will hear from the chairman of the fed reserve jay powell later today we are monitoring a diversion with the u.s. bond yields and european bond yields we are seeing a bit of divergence there it is is worth keeping in mind e expectations for the fed and the ecb which are different at this stage. when it comes to other u.s. futures, i wanted to take a quick look at what is happening there. they are pointing to a mixed open on wall street and worth remembering that retail sales data yesterday have put some pressure on the equity space we saw all of the major indices st stateside in the red, frank. >> futures are a bit mixed after a selloff in the u.s one factor is u.s. retail sales were above expectations in march. it jumped 0.7% from the month previous february's monthly growth figure was revised higher to 0.9% which was up from 0.6% a 50% increase right there the chief u.s. economist at jpmorgan chase said the data has not changed the lender's house view and when the fed will begin cuts. >> we still have them cutting in july, but if it is tough and
yielding 4.63 it is worth knowing we will hear from the chairman of the fed reserve jay powell later today we are monitoring a diversion with the u.s. bond yields and european bond yields we are seeing a bit of divergence there it is is worth keeping in mind e expectations for the fed and the ecb which are different at this stage. when it comes to other u.s. futures, i wanted to take a quick look at what is happening there. they are pointing to a mixed open on wall street and worth remembering...
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Apr 30, 2024
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not expecting a decision, but jay powell's comments are watched closely. we hear european leaders say it is time for a diffivergence wit the fed. thank you, silvia. >>> take a look at shares of hsbc up over 2%. we are getting news that noel quinn is retiring. that is a surprise departure and said the formal process to find a successor is already under way. quinn took over at hsbc in march of 2020 steering the bank through the pandemic and rise in interest rates. hsbc posted a pre-tax profit of $12.7 billion. shares up 2%. the profit in the first three months of the year was ahead of estimates, but slightly down on the year. >>> santander saw net interest income grow by 18% on the year to the highest level at 11.98 billion euro. charlotte has more on the earnings report. >> thank you, frank. you were saying the result was below expectations for santander. they are on track to meet the 2024 target with the single digit growth revenue this year and return of tangible equity up 16%. it is 14.9% in the first quarter. looking at the different parts with the geog
not expecting a decision, but jay powell's comments are watched closely. we hear european leaders say it is time for a diffivergence wit the fed. thank you, silvia. >>> take a look at shares of hsbc up over 2%. we are getting news that noel quinn is retiring. that is a surprise departure and said the formal process to find a successor is already under way. quinn took over at hsbc in march of 2020 steering the bank through the pandemic and rise in interest rates. hsbc posted a pre-tax...
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this as we prepare to hear from fed chair jay powell and we'll bring you headlines as to where to find opportunities across stocks, bonds, and commodities. plus, office vacancy rates hitting a new 20-year high. we'll look at the reits setup and the potential winners and losers into earnings, this aztec layoffs continue to pressure that sector. >>> housing starts posting the biggest drop in four years, but there is one name better insulated and better positioned to reap the benefits once rates start dropping, according to jefferies. the analyst behind that call is here to make his case. but we begin with dom chu with the numbers. >> trying to recover from that selloff over the course of the last few days, shorter term. right now, we're just about unchanged in the market. the broader s&p 500 is at 5060. it's down about one to two points, so flat on the session right now. at the highs, up a modest eight points on the s&p and down 21 points at the lows. so, again, the middle of that trading range. a level that we were watching before still remains around 5116, 5115. on the upside, that is
this as we prepare to hear from fed chair jay powell and we'll bring you headlines as to where to find opportunities across stocks, bonds, and commodities. plus, office vacancy rates hitting a new 20-year high. we'll look at the reits setup and the potential winners and losers into earnings, this aztec layoffs continue to pressure that sector. >>> housing starts posting the biggest drop in four years, but there is one name better insulated and better positioned to reap the benefits...
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Apr 26, 2024
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now, he picked more of establishment figures like randy corals and jay powell. this time, if you look who he was nominated end of his first term you had different, more choices like judy shelton, herman cain. this time around he won't have vak al vacancies unless they leave. seats filled nobody steps down it's a year before he gets one vacancy. >> you talked to someone, you're right, i don't know who's in charge he's got other things going on that probably not as cohesive a campaign when you're, you know, due somewhere else every single day. to your point. be very clear if it doesn't come directly from the strategy and say don't take it seriously. they said that, didn't they? >> they absolutely did say that, but donald trump is talking to people right now about the fed he's interested in different views. he's thinking about this he cares about the fed a lot he thinks a lot about interest rates and knows what 25 basis point increases interest rates will do. the second part i was going to make is -- >> and go along with it. you quote people in the article. two or
now, he picked more of establishment figures like randy corals and jay powell. this time, if you look who he was nominated end of his first term you had different, more choices like judy shelton, herman cain. this time around he won't have vak al vacancies unless they leave. seats filled nobody steps down it's a year before he gets one vacancy. >> you talked to someone, you're right, i don't know who's in charge he's got other things going on that probably not as cohesive a campaign when...
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Apr 17, 2024
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has jay powell, you think, consulted with him on this? >> highly unlikely. >>> meantime speaker mike johnson's former aid plan encountered resistance. the house caucus said they would not support it without offsets and concessions on geo security. if have voted to oust the speaker after mike gallagher steps down from the house on friday. it will take only two if all democrats vote against him. we'll bring you more on this story from washington later on in the show. >>> federal boeing engineer turned whistle-blower will testify before a congressional committee on the safety of the 787 dreamliner. he spoke to tom cause still le o in an exclusive interview. >> should boeing ground the 787 to check the gap sizes? >> i would say they need to. >> the entire fleet worldwide. >> the entire fleet worldwide needs attention. the attention needed is to check your gaps and make sure you don't have potential for premature failing. >> boeing told c kr newsu -- c news they're quite confident. they say the claims about the 787 are inaccurate. >>> meantime
has jay powell, you think, consulted with him on this? >> highly unlikely. >>> meantime speaker mike johnson's former aid plan encountered resistance. the house caucus said they would not support it without offsets and concessions on geo security. if have voted to oust the speaker after mike gallagher steps down from the house on friday. it will take only two if all democrats vote against him. we'll bring you more on this story from washington later on in the show. >>>...
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Apr 18, 2024
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have you changed with jay powell talking a few daysi ago >> we do think the strength you see in the u.s. inflation suggests that the timeline may be pushed back and the pace of rate cuts may be slower. importantly for investors, it is important to keep in mind that the next move does look like it will be lower. also importantly, the delay is going against the back drop of solid growth that prevesents two factors if you are having the delay against the strong growth back drop, it is still an opportunity to lend to high quality companies. coming back to that credit >> how many cuts >> we think the scope for three if the fed is able to deliver a cut in july. we have a couple of cpi prints and labor market reports big picture looks like it will be lower >> thank you very much for coming to the set. >> thank you >>> we turn our an tttention to developing story beijing this morning responding to the biden administration proposal of chinese made steel and aluminum with a threat of tariffs. we have eunice yoon with more on the story. >> reporter: thank you, frank. china called president biden's
have you changed with jay powell talking a few daysi ago >> we do think the strength you see in the u.s. inflation suggests that the timeline may be pushed back and the pace of rate cuts may be slower. importantly for investors, it is important to keep in mind that the next move does look like it will be lower. also importantly, the delay is going against the back drop of solid growth that prevesents two factors if you are having the delay against the strong growth back drop, it is still...
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Apr 16, 2024
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we will have jay powell speaking this afternoon. before that, don't miss our interview with ecb president christine lagarde at 9:00 a.m. >>> let's look at the trading day ahead and bring in david katz. david, good morning. i'll jump into it. looking at futures lower right now. what is your "wex" word of the day? >> unsettled. a number of uncertainties that the market is dealing with. whether israel and iran or interest earnings season. this causes the market to be uncomfortable. you have the downside over the short term. >> what do you expect from jay powell this afternoon? a lot of anticipation about the rate cut path. the market is sold off on the higher than expected retail number which gave investors a feeling the rate cuts were pushed further out. >> we don't think he will say anything that significant new. we think he will talk about the fed ultimately lowering rates, but not in a hurry and looking at data as it comes in. we feel it gets pushed out a little bit. that coupled with the good economy leaves us upbeat about the sto
we will have jay powell speaking this afternoon. before that, don't miss our interview with ecb president christine lagarde at 9:00 a.m. >>> let's look at the trading day ahead and bring in david katz. david, good morning. i'll jump into it. looking at futures lower right now. what is your "wex" word of the day? >> unsettled. a number of uncertainties that the market is dealing with. whether israel and iran or interest earnings season. this causes the market to be...
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Apr 4, 2024
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i guess we got to listen to jay powell, though we were at 6 for a while. i don't know if most people were. three to a lot of people now sounds probably unlikely. but they're sticking to it. that was kind of interesting. they don't want -- they don't care if the market goes higher, do they? they're not trying to disappoint investors. that's not why they're doing this. >> no. >> why are they doing it? >> no, i don't -- i don't -- well, first of all, joe, i will give you ten bucks for every time you can find anything the fed said that would have justified the market going to six. i think that's more of an interesting -- >> now they're endorsing three. the market could be -- people could be wrong about three, but they're kind of endorsing three, even though -- >> you know, joe, i said this repeatedly. the fed is a victim of its own transparency. i really like the dots. the dots tell me where the fed is going. but i don't know why that june probability is so low. i think that might be wrong there. should be 57%. anyway, what i'm seeing on my screen. in any even
i guess we got to listen to jay powell, though we were at 6 for a while. i don't know if most people were. three to a lot of people now sounds probably unlikely. but they're sticking to it. that was kind of interesting. they don't want -- they don't care if the market goes higher, do they? they're not trying to disappoint investors. that's not why they're doing this. >> no. >> why are they doing it? >> no, i don't -- i don't -- well, first of all, joe, i will give you ten...
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Apr 1, 2024
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one thing i disagree with jay powell. signaling cuts soon. there's nothing like that in the data to me. >> what about the letters behind you? distinctive signature. is that 45 sober? >> those are the, right here in my office. those are the notes that appointed me chair to council of economic advisor and member of the council advisor. >> signature on the right, right? very distinctive. that's not a letter asking you to be the next fed chief from -- from -- that's not what -- we can't see what it says. >> we'll see what happens. >> would you take that job? >> it's crazy to speculate about stuff right now. it's like the cart before the horse we don't really even have a horse yet. so i think the appropriate thing to do is talk about policy for a person like me and let people think about whether they think policy views are views of someone you agree with. >> fortunately, just gave every modern monetary theorist a -- get out of jail free a.i.'s goi our $34 billion built-up risk. >> we see it in productivity inflation going down. a.i. is real. it's
one thing i disagree with jay powell. signaling cuts soon. there's nothing like that in the data to me. >> what about the letters behind you? distinctive signature. is that 45 sober? >> those are the, right here in my office. those are the notes that appointed me chair to council of economic advisor and member of the council advisor. >> signature on the right, right? very distinctive. that's not a letter asking you to be the next fed chief from -- from -- that's not what -- we...
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Apr 1, 2024
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i don't think jay powell is in a rush to make any moves. they want to continue to trend in the right direction. so, the market can do well while the fed is on pause. i think we will see rate cuts happening this year. >> what's been working so far? is that mega cap tech trend broadening out? raeann, we are talking about the big names likes n nvidia. do you take profits or roll it over? >> we are taking profits after the run we have seen in the last year. we have seen that broadening out. we're happy to see that. that's largely that the market is saying the economy survived the rate hiking cycle and everything is looking good. we have been broadening out. we have been reallocating to areas outside of tech. we're keeping in tech. just not overweight. >> i know you are looking at alternatives. private equity especially. what about gold? would you move part of your portfolio? >> that is not an area we allocate. we do allocate across asset classes. we do prefer other areas of the private markets such as venture capital and private credit which ar
i don't think jay powell is in a rush to make any moves. they want to continue to trend in the right direction. so, the market can do well while the fed is on pause. i think we will see rate cuts happening this year. >> what's been working so far? is that mega cap tech trend broadening out? raeann, we are talking about the big names likes n nvidia. do you take profits or roll it over? >> we are taking profits after the run we have seen in the last year. we have seen that broadening...
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Apr 4, 2024
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fed chair jay powell says there's still room for rate cuts this year. stock futures pointing to gains. >>> disney prevailing in the proxy battle with nelson peltz. we will tell you what comes next for the media and entertainment giant. >>> apple reportedly working on a home robot that would follow you around the house. it's thursday, april 24th, 2024. "squawk box" begins right now. >>> good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. everybody's here in the studio. >> good to see you. >> well rested. >> of course. >> happy. >> as joe mentioned, u.s. equity futures are higher. dow is up 130. nasdaq up 95. the s&p up 18. this comes after you were looking at the dow down for three days in a row. it was a mixed session for stocks yesterday. the dow was down 43 points. the third straight session of declines. the s&p was inching higher. up .10%. the nasdaq up .20%. treasury yields you did see higher yields across
fed chair jay powell says there's still room for rate cuts this year. stock futures pointing to gains. >>> disney prevailing in the proxy battle with nelson peltz. we will tell you what comes next for the media and entertainment giant. >>> apple reportedly working on a home robot that would follow you around the house. it's thursday, april 24th, 2024. "squawk box" begins right now. >>> good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live...
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Apr 25, 2024
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the fed has, as of last week, jay powell said we'll stay higher and the markets, particularly the stock market, now is in the adjustment period to that. i think, courtney, it might have been naive for any of us to say after monday's rally, or maybe it was tuesday's rally, we're all in the clear that was a little bit naive. on the other hand, folks, i don't think you'll get the full 10% pullback of a correction the reason i say that, this economy really is strong let alone -- put aside the 1.6% gdp, the initial jobless claims, the continuing jobless claims. the labor market is healthy and will generate profit growth for stocks to hang on to >> can i just add -- >> please. >> i want to amplify what jim said the economy remains strong, so, albeit we got a bit of a weaker print here the underlying data is point to go growth in the economy and i think that the challenge with chair powell's statements last week, every data point is important to them, the market is digesting every minute point as ill illustrative this is all backwards looking. i think the important thing is as we go through th
the fed has, as of last week, jay powell said we'll stay higher and the markets, particularly the stock market, now is in the adjustment period to that. i think, courtney, it might have been naive for any of us to say after monday's rally, or maybe it was tuesday's rally, we're all in the clear that was a little bit naive. on the other hand, folks, i don't think you'll get the full 10% pullback of a correction the reason i say that, this economy really is strong let alone -- put aside the 1.6%...
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Apr 2, 2024
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this includes jay powell on wednesday. let's look at we can expect at the implied open. the dow can be down 150 points. for the european markmarkets, l look at the picture. they were off yesterday and they did not do anything except digest the easter eggs. ftse 100 is up po.70%. great start to the week for the ftse 100. cac 40 issing moving higher by .40%. dax has been scaling new heights. the smi and ftse mib is sitting below the line. let's look at the european sectors and flip over the big board and look at what is going on. oil and gas up 2%. we have been watching oil. it is sitting at five-month highs after we got the good manufacturing data in the u.s. and the better numbers coming out of china as well. we saw manufacturing and non-manufacturing bouncing in china. that is giving hope on the demand side.have basic resource up. a bounce from copper and iron ore. technology is up 1.5%. on the bottom end of the scale, real estate is down .8%. maybe not a great start to the week there. let's take a look at some other assets. >>> crypto heis a fascinating story. bitcoin
this includes jay powell on wednesday. let's look at we can expect at the implied open. the dow can be down 150 points. for the european markmarkets, l look at the picture. they were off yesterday and they did not do anything except digest the easter eggs. ftse 100 is up po.70%. great start to the week for the ftse 100. cac 40 issing moving higher by .40%. dax has been scaling new heights. the smi and ftse mib is sitting below the line. let's look at the european sectors and flip over the big...
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Apr 18, 2024
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we heard from jay powell here in washington, d.c. he confirmed we know the data points from retail sales to cpi and jobs are hotter than expected if there is policy divergence and we see and witness a strength in the u.s. dollar, how does that hamstring the ecb ability to cut rates >> typically, the fed cuts first and for good reason. it is the gorilla in the room and it has a major impact. what we know from research, our policies are less effective. that is the reason why we are ca careful. >> meanwhile, portugal's central bank governor argued the case for the june rate cut. >> we need to look at the data and take all data on board certainly, we achieve numbers for inflation that are in my opinion which are close to 2% which we will get. there is the risk of all this process becoming an austerity flavor because at some point policy may become cyclical that is the risk and the error that we have in europe with austerity policies we need to keep aware of that. >> karen is set to have another busy day in washington speaking to policyma
we heard from jay powell here in washington, d.c. he confirmed we know the data points from retail sales to cpi and jobs are hotter than expected if there is policy divergence and we see and witness a strength in the u.s. dollar, how does that hamstring the ecb ability to cut rates >> typically, the fed cuts first and for good reason. it is the gorilla in the room and it has a major impact. what we know from research, our policies are less effective. that is the reason why we are ca...
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Apr 18, 2024
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powell can start cutting rates before there are big layoffs and bankruptcies however, this time the chain of pain simply didn't happen. no one's gone belly up we can't see any major players filing for bankruptcy. we haven't seen any orders canceled we can't see the price cuts down the line to move product so do we finally have the beginning of the long-awaited slowdown in prologis and j.b. hunt was march that bad at least i can say there are some brown shoots somewhere. you about the bottom line is it's not enough to cause the fed to reconsider what they were saying just a couple of days ago. "mad money's" back after the break. >> announcer: coming up, hit us with your best shot. an electrified fast-fire "lightning round" is next. >>> it is time time for the "lightning ound"! buy buy buy, sell sell sell -- play until this sound and then the "lightning round" is over. are you ready skee-daddy time for the "lightning round" on cramer's "mad money." i'm going to start with doug in new jersey doug >> caller: big boo-yah from point pleasant at the jersey shore. >> jenkinson's beckoning l
powell can start cutting rates before there are big layoffs and bankruptcies however, this time the chain of pain simply didn't happen. no one's gone belly up we can't see any major players filing for bankruptcy. we haven't seen any orders canceled we can't see the price cuts down the line to move product so do we finally have the beginning of the long-awaited slowdown in prologis and j.b. hunt was march that bad at least i can say there are some brown shoots somewhere. you about the bottom...
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Apr 4, 2024
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because we have jay powell, he's the fed chief. he's really the only guy who matters and we should just pay attention to him once a month. i think the whole idea of trying to read the tea leaves of the fed has kept people out of this market for a very long time. i have written and railed about this forever. the people obsessed with the fed are the people who don't make any money. i think it's my job to hem you make money, not do nothing. sorry, that's how i see it. and i'm sticking by it. joseph in new york. joseph. >> caller: yeah. just wanted to see if cramer could make -- i own some shares of procter & gamble. >> okay. >> caller: i wonder if he could just look into it. >> joseph, listen, procter & gamble's terrific. we bought some yesterday. we sold some procter when it burst into the 16s. and now we're trying to rebuild the position. we bought some yesterday and i'm looking to buy more. why? because procter & gamble's what you buy. it's a steady eddie company. whenever it's had a break i've always reached for it and it's been r
because we have jay powell, he's the fed chief. he's really the only guy who matters and we should just pay attention to him once a month. i think the whole idea of trying to read the tea leaves of the fed has kept people out of this market for a very long time. i have written and railed about this forever. the people obsessed with the fed are the people who don't make any money. i think it's my job to hem you make money, not do nothing. sorry, that's how i see it. and i'm sticking by it....
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Apr 16, 2024
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later today, fed chair jay powell is speaking at the forum in washington at 1:15 p.m. a lot of folks speaking. jay powell is the one where you will hang on every word. >> how many rate cuts should we expect it? when? >> will he tell you anything? i argue he should top telling you anything. >> mary daly said no rush to cut rates at this point. certainly the data states that. >>> house speaker mike johnson plans to split the aid package for israel and ukraine to respond quickly on the attack over the weekend. marjorie taylor greene has threatened to force a vote on deposing the speaker if it has any ukraine aid. she has not decided to proceed with the ouster vote. speaker johnson anticipates the house will vote on the aid bills on friday. >>> the first day of jury selection in the donald trump criminal trial concluded without any jurors seated. trump walked out of the courtroom and calling the trial a scam and criticizing the judge for refusing him to attend supreme court arguments next week reellated to the immunity argument. meantime, shares of trump media closing 18%
later today, fed chair jay powell is speaking at the forum in washington at 1:15 p.m. a lot of folks speaking. jay powell is the one where you will hang on every word. >> how many rate cuts should we expect it? when? >> will he tell you anything? i argue he should top telling you anything. >> mary daly said no rush to cut rates at this point. certainly the data states that. >>> house speaker mike johnson plans to split the aid package for israel and ukraine to respond...
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Apr 29, 2024
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i think i know jay powell very well as a friend he could care less. it's kind of nice to have symmetrical beating up right? >> it is both sides then left with the foibles of, i mean, love jay powell or -- he is having gut feelings about what to do, which aren't always right. >> not just jay powell it's entire committee. >> the entire committee. >> remember, plotting their dots saying we might have three cuts. remember, every time powell has spoken about this he's says -- >> last time he said not ready but really close were we really close at that point? >> i think we're getting closer. >> able to cut why? >> it's not there yet. >> why are we getting closer the last mile seems harder >> it is hard and going to be really hard to get there and they're not going to deter -- no central banker in the world wants to get out of the 2% targets. because it undermines confidence you saet a hard rule and wiggle on it? not going to work. >> i don't know if you saw professor stiglitz last week did you understand the inflation argument and why he said 4, 5%, really
i think i know jay powell very well as a friend he could care less. it's kind of nice to have symmetrical beating up right? >> it is both sides then left with the foibles of, i mean, love jay powell or -- he is having gut feelings about what to do, which aren't always right. >> not just jay powell it's entire committee. >> the entire committee. >> remember, plotting their dots saying we might have three cuts. remember, every time powell has spoken about this he's says --...
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Apr 11, 2024
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. >>> flipping the script for the federal reserve for jay powell's first interest rate cut since the historic hiking cycle begam in. >>> and we are looking to see if the first quarter results are enough to keep digging into equities. >>> and later, not just the fed, but other central banks are is the set to release their decisions today. it's thursday, april 11th, 2024. you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc. ♪ >>> good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange." coming to you live from cnbc london. thank you for being with us. let's get you ready for the trading day after the hotter than expected cpi report. we kickoff the hour with the u.s. futures after the rough day for stocks. the dow closed down 1%. following that hotter than expected march inflation print. the dow would open up 100 points lower. 120 lower. taking a dip lower while i'm talking. s&p and nasdaq down .25%. it was worse for the small caps and transports coming off 2% losses. yesterday's headline cpi read may have been a shock, but more attention this morning on the super core number stripping ou
. >>> flipping the script for the federal reserve for jay powell's first interest rate cut since the historic hiking cycle begam in. >>> and we are looking to see if the first quarter results are enough to keep digging into equities. >>> and later, not just the fed, but other central banks are is the set to release their decisions today. it's thursday, april 11th, 2024. you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc. ♪ >>> good morning...
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powell at the meeting next week, i wouldn't be surprised to be a dampener on the market. >> is that what you think? a change in tone or language >> i think you've already had it we're going to bring in -- >> the meeting starts tomorrow. >> sure, sure, but it will be hard for him to say, as he had been arguing, the date was going to gift in a way to give them confidence when he has the press conference on wednesday, and i think my expectation and everyone's expectation, he'll make a dissloor com what sounded to us like we want to cut by the summer to something interpreted as we just don't have enough data >> let's bring in our expert, steve liesman. how about that are we expecting a changes in language from chair powell >> yeah, i think he has to skew more hawkish about the current data, but i got to throw something back the thing i'm interested in here, scott is -- this maybe sound sect derivative, but powell have the confident he will get the confidence? in other words, did she is forecasts remain that inflation will come down in the future that's the forecast of the fomc. do they
powell at the meeting next week, i wouldn't be surprised to be a dampener on the market. >> is that what you think? a change in tone or language >> i think you've already had it we're going to bring in -- >> the meeting starts tomorrow. >> sure, sure, but it will be hard for him to say, as he had been arguing, the date was going to gift in a way to give them confidence when he has the press conference on wednesday, and i think my expectation and everyone's expectation,...
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amongst attendees are jay powell and masa son and apple's tim cook and shawn fain, jamie dimon and larry fink. john gray and ibm's arvin kris hak krishna. the guests were entertained by paul simon. >> becky, can i make a quick point? to me, one of the most salient or fascinating facts about the dinner. jamie dimon at the dinner. i raise it because there is a lot of conjecture since we did that interview with jamie in davos about his comments about politics and president biden. specifically president trump. a lot of people took the clips he said on air as if he was a supporter of president trump's. i thought that was misconstrued by the public and not his intention to suggest he was backing president trump, but saying you have to respect a group of people who want to support him. by democrata, godemaging him ma for society. every person that the default, is a supper of sorts of president biden. >> his comments at davos were not just respect people who voted for president trump, but his point was there is a reason they are voting for him because of the policies he thought were better from
amongst attendees are jay powell and masa son and apple's tim cook and shawn fain, jamie dimon and larry fink. john gray and ibm's arvin kris hak krishna. the guests were entertained by paul simon. >> becky, can i make a quick point? to me, one of the most salient or fascinating facts about the dinner. jamie dimon at the dinner. i raise it because there is a lot of conjecture since we did that interview with jamie in davos about his comments about politics and president biden....
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let's just hope jay powell agrees with me. small caps are under pressure, but we'll identify five names in the consumer discretionary space, ones i think could be worth watching. it's the growth stocks that marched the averages higher. could that leadership be in danger or could growth be a strong corner of the market worth buying and being patient? i'm going off the charts for answers. >>> as a spokesperson for the american migraine foundation, i'm passionate about those working with diseases impacting the brain. so i'm looking at how mind bend is disrupting the space with the ceo. stay with cramer. >> don't miss a second of "mad money." follow@jimcramer on x. send jim an email or call us at 1-800- 743-cnbc. miss something? head to madmoney.cnbc.com. norman, bad news... i never graduated from med school. what? but the good news is... xfinity mobile just got even better! now, you can automatically connect to wifi speeds up to a gig on the go. plus, buy one unlimited line and get one free for a year. i gotta get this deal... th
let's just hope jay powell agrees with me. small caps are under pressure, but we'll identify five names in the consumer discretionary space, ones i think could be worth watching. it's the growth stocks that marched the averages higher. could that leadership be in danger or could growth be a strong corner of the market worth buying and being patient? i'm going off the charts for answers. >>> as a spokesperson for the american migraine foundation, i'm passionate about those working with...
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Apr 3, 2024
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the markets will be paying close attention to a speech by feds chair jay powell at stanford university later on this afternoon. joining me no break this down is the lead equity analyst at lansdowne. is there an expectation that the fed could, could be a little bit more on the fence about this than we thought previously? >> hi, there. good morning. funda fundamentally, yes, i do. i think this remains the biggest risk at the moment to evaluations as in march, things are moving in the right direction. we've heard a little bit of language loosen slightly around the optimism and the potential for cuts, but, frankly, the market's behaving in a way that is certain, and we're simply not there yet and i don't think that is going to change any time soon. >> if you feel that's the case, the markets should be acting to the you up side kind of like they've done the last couple of days. to we feel there's still a downside risk to the market based on what we saw in yesterday's session? >> i think there is potentially some, absolutely. i've said this before really. i think that actually the phase that
the markets will be paying close attention to a speech by feds chair jay powell at stanford university later on this afternoon. joining me no break this down is the lead equity analyst at lansdowne. is there an expectation that the fed could, could be a little bit more on the fence about this than we thought previously? >> hi, there. good morning. funda fundamentally, yes, i do. i think this remains the biggest risk at the moment to evaluations as in march, things are moving in the right...
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powell. because he's other officials will not keep their trap shut, we get this guessing gamer we try to figure out what the fed is going to do even though their comments don't really give us much insight at all. but here's what you need to know, investing is not -- i repeat not -- a game. first of all, pallet is all that matters but when it comes to cuts, as wrong as the rate cuts are in front of us, they come around. it does not matter when or how many cuts. all that matters is the fed wants to be our friend. at this point, nobody knows how many rate cuts we are going to get and that includes fed chief j. powell. the period before the first cut is nirvana for the stock market. this is the ideal one where the economy is chugging along just fine. >> all aboard. >> and we know we are going to get some leaf from the fed eventually. but it starts slowing down and that is not good for our portfolio. some people seem to think that the market cannot go higher without rate cuts. that is pulse. the w
powell. because he's other officials will not keep their trap shut, we get this guessing gamer we try to figure out what the fed is going to do even though their comments don't really give us much insight at all. but here's what you need to know, investing is not -- i repeat not -- a game. first of all, pallet is all that matters but when it comes to cuts, as wrong as the rate cuts are in front of us, they come around. it does not matter when or how many cuts. all that matters is the fed wants...
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powell on tuesday. there is a lot on the table here, frank, but looking at the futures at hthis point, it does suggest a positive start to the wall street. >> we are seeing how they digest the comments from israel and iran. in the past few minutes, olof scholz warned iran about another attack and warning it needs to contribute to the deescalation of tensions. he said iran has brought the region to the brink of the abyss. this comes after the members condemned the iran strikes and reaffirming the commitment to israel. the u.n. secretary-general said now is the time for maximum restraint. the u.s. urging restraint with antony blinken talking with counterparts in jordan and saudi arabia and urkey. president biden calling prime minister benjamin netanyahu directly. the spokesperson, john kirby, spoke out on "meet the press." >> it was clearly we stand with you and your defense. that was the message the president delivered to the prime minister. he congratulated the prime minister and idf for the extraordina
powell on tuesday. there is a lot on the table here, frank, but looking at the futures at hthis point, it does suggest a positive start to the wall street. >> we are seeing how they digest the comments from israel and iran. in the past few minutes, olof scholz warned iran about another attack and warning it needs to contribute to the deescalation of tensions. he said iran has brought the region to the brink of the abyss. this comes after the members condemned the iran strikes and...
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jay powell, actually used the second one. he squeezed availability of reserves. banks didn't have much reserves. they scrambled and the federal funds rate went to 22% and killed the economy and finflatin and in that order. this time around, chairman powell doesn't have that option because of the reserves in the banking system. the reserves is more than 1,700 times larger than before the lee lehman crisis. here you try to tighten with this tool and you have to rehe m move the 3.2 trillion first. before you have the grip on the situation. you cannot do that overnight. that means all of the efforts on monetary tightening were on interest rates because you cannot use the other tool. >> we hear a lot of words on cnbc. it goes with the territory. listen to what richard koo just said. the amount of excess u.s. banking reserves is 1,700 times larger than it was pre-hlehman. if nothing else, take nothing away from morning programming today than that fact, that shows you why central banks in the united states and the fmoc and federal reserve has struggled to have the same
jay powell, actually used the second one. he squeezed availability of reserves. banks didn't have much reserves. they scrambled and the federal funds rate went to 22% and killed the economy and finflatin and in that order. this time around, chairman powell doesn't have that option because of the reserves in the banking system. the reserves is more than 1,700 times larger than before the lee lehman crisis. here you try to tighten with this tool and you have to rehe m move the 3.2 trillion first....
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if i was jay powell, i would say, come on, what a head jake this is, this is just making my job harder. >> the key to what's happening with wage inflation because if you think about, you know, in a service economy, service-driven economy, the biggest cost is wages. so that's what we should be looking at. if i were any central bank, i would be looking at wage inflation, saying what's happening to wage inflation? is it going down to where it needs to be for 2% price inflation? and i think the problem is not so much wage inflation is going up. it's stabilizing at much too high a level. that to me is the bigger problem. and they've said the bigger risk is not that inflation goes up again. it's just that it stabilizes at a higher level. 3% unfortunately is not job done. you need to be at 2%. and that last mile is going to be very, very tough in my opinion. >> no declaration of victory just yet rchlt you surprised by how strong the labor market has remained? especially when you look at job openings are up and quitters are up, which shows there's a level of confidence out there that you can q
if i was jay powell, i would say, come on, what a head jake this is, this is just making my job harder. >> the key to what's happening with wage inflation because if you think about, you know, in a service economy, service-driven economy, the biggest cost is wages. so that's what we should be looking at. if i were any central bank, i would be looking at wage inflation, saying what's happening to wage inflation? is it going down to where it needs to be for 2% price inflation? and i think...
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this as we prepare to hear from fed chair jay powell and we'll bring you headlines as to where to find opportunities across stocks, bonds, and commodities. plus, office vacancy rates hitting a new 20-year high. we'll look at the reits setup and the potential winners and losers into earnings, this aztec layoffs continue to pressure that sector. >>> housing starts posting the
this as we prepare to hear from fed chair jay powell and we'll bring you headlines as to where to find opportunities across stocks, bonds, and commodities. plus, office vacancy rates hitting a new 20-year high. we'll look at the reits setup and the potential winners and losers into earnings, this aztec layoffs continue to pressure that sector. >>> housing starts posting the
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jay powell can't do anything about the price of anyone's car insurance. so you want to fight inflation, don't worry. i'm going to bring down your allstate >> ppi was better, was more controlled there's more components that go from the ppi into the pce versus the cpi. losing a lot of viewers here, right? my point being, i think the number will be fine. i think 2.7, 2.8 and the market would be fine with that. it's still not 2%. >> as long as it's below 3 it can be digested. >>> let's move on. apparently this show doesn't have commercial breaks what next? >> how about that streaming company that took out blockbuster video. i'm not happy with them. >> you're talking about our "chart of the day" >> let's do it >> shares aren't happy investors aren't happy joe terranova is not happy why are you not happy? >> i stuck my neck out yesterday on "closing bell" and said they would deliver on margins, deliver on the profitability you'll see one of the strongest quarters since 2020. i pointed out it was 13% below its all-time high. plenty of room for upside potential.
jay powell can't do anything about the price of anyone's car insurance. so you want to fight inflation, don't worry. i'm going to bring down your allstate >> ppi was better, was more controlled there's more components that go from the ppi into the pce versus the cpi. losing a lot of viewers here, right? my point being, i think the number will be fine. i think 2.7, 2.8 and the market would be fine with that. it's still not 2%. >> as long as it's below 3 it can be digested....
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Apr 26, 2024
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. >> i thought after jay powell spoke on april 16th, that s settled the idea of higher for longer wit we see the weak gdp report and it seems odd pce is coming up a lot of eyes on inflation we will talk about that coming up i'm frank holland with silvia amaro. we'll be on "worldwide exchange" which is coming up after this break. what is cirkul? cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. cirkul is your frosted treat with a sweet kick of confidence. cirkul is the energy that gets you to the next level. cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. cirkul is your gateway back home. so what is cirkul? it's your water, your way. cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul.com. shipstation saves us so much time it makes it really easy and seamless pick an order print everything you need slap the label on ito the box and it's ready to go our cost for shipping, were cut in half just like that go to shipstation/tv and get 2 months free it's hard to run a business on your own. make it easier on yourself. with shopify, you have everything you need to sell online and in person.
. >> i thought after jay powell spoke on april 16th, that s settled the idea of higher for longer wit we see the weak gdp report and it seems odd pce is coming up a lot of eyes on inflation we will talk about that coming up i'm frank holland with silvia amaro. we'll be on "worldwide exchange" which is coming up after this break. what is cirkul? cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. cirkul is your frosted treat with a sweet kick of confidence. cirkul is the energy that gets...
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Apr 11, 2024
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. >>> flipping the script for the federal reserve for jay powell's first interest rate cut since the historic hiking cycle begam in
. >>> flipping the script for the federal reserve for jay powell's first interest rate cut since the historic hiking cycle begam in
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>> i think jay powell is doing a good job in sticking to his messaging. i like what they do in the official meetings. i don't really like a lot of the individual speeches they make between meetings because that is moving markets in a way that's probably not appropriate. i think it makes the job of frankly jay powell, very much wants to get to consensus and one thing will happen in june, a split vote, what's happening is the fed presidents are making speeches and feel like i have to stick with what i said, right. somebody is going to have to make a decision in june and i would rather have consensus and focus on the official communications after fomc meetings rather than speeches in between. >> really good point. thank you so much. >> any time. >> appreciate you being here. >> as we head to break, here's our road map for the hour. rough start to q2 as investors focus on the fed. goldman's chief economist joins us. >> communication services hitting those last seen in the dotcom area. one name powering that sector higher. >> the treasury secretary kicking off
>> i think jay powell is doing a good job in sticking to his messaging. i like what they do in the official meetings. i don't really like a lot of the individual speeches they make between meetings because that is moving markets in a way that's probably not appropriate. i think it makes the job of frankly jay powell, very much wants to get to consensus and one thing will happen in june, a split vote, what's happening is the fed presidents are making speeches and feel like i have to stick...
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Apr 16, 2024
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new comments from jay powell about a lack of progress on inflation is tripping up stocks in a bit. >>> the focus is back on earnings, the fed for today, the geopolitical tension is taut. israel has not yet responded to iran's missile attack. we're going to talk to the head of emerging risks for a global insurance brokerage about the threats to business and to the macro economy. first here is a check on the markets. the dow industrials in the green up .2% in spite of chair powell's comments about rates and where they need to be and the persistence of inflation. s&p 500 off by 1/16th% and nasdaq composite just barely in the red. earnings season really picking up. we have several more bank earnings this morning. let's get to leslie picker for a rundown on those results. leslie, hi. >> hey, contessa. bank of america trading lower at this hour after results came out. but, the call started, the firm reiterated rather than raise its net interest income guidance, that caused the stock to slide. executives on the call saying that they expect that loan-making metric to trough in q2 and grow aga
new comments from jay powell about a lack of progress on inflation is tripping up stocks in a bit. >>> the focus is back on earnings, the fed for today, the geopolitical tension is taut. israel has not yet responded to iran's missile attack. we're going to talk to the head of emerging risks for a global insurance brokerage about the threats to business and to the macro economy. first here is a check on the markets. the dow industrials in the green up .2% in spite of chair powell's...
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Apr 23, 2024
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. >> let me switch gears i read one of your notes you seem a little put out with jay powell >> don't tell him. >> i just did, i'm afraid. >> i am so tired of the flip-flopping. i've been at this over 40 years. i've never seen a more hapless, dissatisfactory fed chairman now we're in the mode where the market is not listening again and paying attention to earnings but we are starting to see a slowdown in some of the industrial names they're beating on earnings but lowering guidance. so i think they're going to cut this year, but i'm still drawing an analogy to the '90s where fed chairman greenspan cut three times, let it ride after aggressively raising rates in '94. >> i think of this moment, as in a very polite, measured version of jim cramer's famous rant, they know nothing! they know nothing! what are they thinking you remember well, i'm sure. >> i do. but what bothers me the most is their models don't work. and yet they keep repeating them, so there was an article in "the wall street journal" i referenced in my notes, i can't remember the title, where -- oh, "why is the fed always
. >> let me switch gears i read one of your notes you seem a little put out with jay powell >> don't tell him. >> i just did, i'm afraid. >> i am so tired of the flip-flopping. i've been at this over 40 years. i've never seen a more hapless, dissatisfactory fed chairman now we're in the mode where the market is not listening again and paying attention to earnings but we are starting to see a slowdown in some of the industrial names they're beating on earnings but...
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Apr 24, 2024
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jay powell has been in the camp of skeptical, but on "squawkbox" this morning, jason fuhrman summed up the middle ground. >> what we're seeing in the data is just noise and post pandemic gyration what we're seeing when we read about what's happening in ai, the developments and companies, and the developments of the technology, i think that's real, just not in the data yet >> for the fed, it means higher productivity could mean lower for longer it's like adding factories and workers without adding either. getting there could mean more for capital, so short-term that could mean higher rates until the productivity takes hold. >> i love when economists talk about gyrations. it gets me going let me ask you, just from a dumb point of view, what is productivity, how do you measure it, and what influences it or changes it for better or worse >> it's efficiency output hour for hour in a service sector economy, it's very difficult to measure >> i don't know how you would measure my productivity. >> say you were a journalist oh, i think that's a real example. let's say you used to write stories a
jay powell has been in the camp of skeptical, but on "squawkbox" this morning, jason fuhrman summed up the middle ground. >> what we're seeing in the data is just noise and post pandemic gyration what we're seeing when we read about what's happening in ai, the developments and companies, and the developments of the technology, i think that's real, just not in the data yet >> for the fed, it means higher productivity could mean lower for longer it's like adding factories...
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Apr 17, 2024
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powell did yesterday of saying we will just stay higher for longer and we'll have to wait a little longer before we ultimately get what we'll see what i believe at the moment, what we're seeing today is really a sugar high coming as a result of this boost from the stock market going up. again $10 trillion added to household balance sheets consumer spending in 2023 was about $19 trillion we've added in wealth roughly half of consumption last year. it has a significant tailwind to restaurant, hotels, airlines, concerts, sports events across the board. consumer spending continues to really look good when it comes to the next several quarters. >> i guess the question is how long do you think the sugar high lasts. it's a weird cycle if we stay with rates right here, maybe the sugar high can be sustained that sugar high will inevitably power rates to go higher which would then be a cap of equities and perhaps the reason for equities to turn lower >> exactly i do view that that sugar high here for the stock market going up, supporting consumption at the moment i do view that again through the le
powell did yesterday of saying we will just stay higher for longer and we'll have to wait a little longer before we ultimately get what we'll see what i believe at the moment, what we're seeing today is really a sugar high coming as a result of this boost from the stock market going up. again $10 trillion added to household balance sheets consumer spending in 2023 was about $19 trillion we've added in wealth roughly half of consumption last year. it has a significant tailwind to restaurant,...
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Apr 11, 2024
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i would be very nervous, not that this is going to happen, if jay powell came out and say, we've got to cut. i go yuh-oh, he sees something don't see. >> the fact that -- >> we have the wherewithal to be patient is a good thing. >> thank you very much both very much. appreciate it. >>> coming up, deidre bosa is sitting down with adam neumann as he unveils his newest venture aiming to "transform the residential experience," but is it disruptive or just another real estate play disguised aztec? >>> plus, wall street back at it again, according to bank of america, underestimating apple, despite its performance. the analyst on that call joins us next. "the exchange" is back after this. see you then. (grandpa) i'm the richest guy in the world. (man 1) i have time to give. (man 2) i have people i can count on. (grandma) and a million stories to share. (vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts. >>> welcome back to "the exchange," everybody. nearly five years after we works implosion, adam neumann is back now in the spotlight unveiling his newest venture, called flow, and it aims to
i would be very nervous, not that this is going to happen, if jay powell came out and say, we've got to cut. i go yuh-oh, he sees something don't see. >> the fact that -- >> we have the wherewithal to be patient is a good thing. >> thank you very much both very much. appreciate it. >>> coming up, deidre bosa is sitting down with adam neumann as he unveils his newest venture aiming to "transform the residential experience," but is it disruptive or just...
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Apr 16, 2024
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jay powell saying this afternoon in a conversation with the canadian central bank that the fed's restrictive policy needs further time to work. he went on to say, he noted a lack of further progress on inflation this year. he said the recent data has not given the fed greater confidence to cut. progress is taking longer than expected to achieve the confidence to cut. and the fed can maintain that restrictive rate as long as is needed. what powell didn't say maybe equality important, remember back in -- earlier this month, he said, if the economy evolves broadly as we expect, we see it as likely to be appropriate to begin lowering the policy rate at some point this year. that was not part of his remarks today. fed vice chair jefferson used that same language in late february, but he omitted them from prepared remarks today, as well. making the case that the base case may not be for cuts anymore. well, the market beginning to price all of this in here, 3% for may, you can write that off. june increasingly a long shot. july becoming less than an even money proposition for a cut. september is yo
jay powell saying this afternoon in a conversation with the canadian central bank that the fed's restrictive policy needs further time to work. he went on to say, he noted a lack of further progress on inflation this year. he said the recent data has not given the fed greater confidence to cut. progress is taking longer than expected to achieve the confidence to cut. and the fed can maintain that restrictive rate as long as is needed. what powell didn't say maybe equality important, remember...
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Apr 26, 2024
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when you drill down, if the fed decides that now when we hear from jay powell and now it's looking like, hey, we're not only not going to cut, but we're still thinking about raising, that's a different dynamic that i don't think the market has digested just yet, and obviously the more ai spend the better it is for nvidia. i still think i'd rather be buying nvidia than microsoft. >> did you hear that >> yeah. >> to karen's would you rather. >> could i add one little thing, monday we will get some important news, right? we're going to see the quarterly refunding right? and that has a potential to -- >> right spike further, right? >> then that could really royal the markets. >> this whole notion that things can keep chucking along just because we have the handful of stocks leading the entire market farther, you may think that's horrible you may think that's a fine thing, but for what it is right now, if ai spend is going to b lift instead calendar year 2024, which is what these giants have said, and there's some expectation that it could still have the momentum going to calendar year 2025,
when you drill down, if the fed decides that now when we hear from jay powell and now it's looking like, hey, we're not only not going to cut, but we're still thinking about raising, that's a different dynamic that i don't think the market has digested just yet, and obviously the more ai spend the better it is for nvidia. i still think i'd rather be buying nvidia than microsoft. >> did you hear that >> yeah. >> to karen's would you rather. >> could i add one little...
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Apr 17, 2024
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jay powell said, we got to have cooler numbers, so when we don't get cooler numbers and you have people still calling for three cuts, i mean, these are people who are saying, you know what, i've looked at the situation, and i really think that the eagles are going to win the super bowl against the chiefs. i mean, what the hell do you know? what do you know? >> the comment, jim, that maybe was a surprise was his forecast for year-end pce at 2.8%. b of a is saying, the base effects in for december, for example, aren't that favorable, and in their words, if we take him at his word, there's a real risk the fed may not cut until march 2025 at the earliest. >> oh, geez, like we have a mind meld here. i just yellowed that, because i said, well, that may be news, but again, please tell me, other than jb hunt, who is cutting price, who is in trouble and has to let things come down. i don't see that. we have a president who's calling for a tripling of the chinese tariff, one of the few things that's happened that's come down is steel. well, let's end that. >> we'll talk about that in a bit. >>> l
jay powell said, we got to have cooler numbers, so when we don't get cooler numbers and you have people still calling for three cuts, i mean, these are people who are saying, you know what, i've looked at the situation, and i really think that the eagles are going to win the super bowl against the chiefs. i mean, what the hell do you know? what do you know? >> the comment, jim, that maybe was a surprise was his forecast for year-end pce at 2.8%. b of a is saying, the base effects in for...
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Apr 19, 2024
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really confounding jay powell, who didn't see that coming >> goolsbee would argue it is the high rate that is infla inflationary itself. >> goolsbee is a very practical man. that's totally true. i think he looks at what the home bimuilders are doing, which is to say, i'm not going to build homes, i'm going to buy stock. first time ever. >> little bounce at the open dow is up almost the 2 hundred check bonds as well. i think goolsbee will be speaking today, but that's pretty much it in terms of fed speak and data >> thank heavens maybe they're doing that stuff where they don't work fridays. >> the fed is moving to a four-day week. >> great stuff with a uruguay movie. >> ten-year, 4.6%. ♪♪ the road to opportunity. is often the road overlooked. at enterprise mobility, we guide companies to unique solutions, from our team of mobility experts. because we believe the more ways we all have to move forward the further we all go. encore energy, america's clean energy company, now in production in south texas. energizing america with reliable and affordable uranium for nuclear energy fuel f
really confounding jay powell, who didn't see that coming >> goolsbee would argue it is the high rate that is infla inflationary itself. >> goolsbee is a very practical man. that's totally true. i think he looks at what the home bimuilders are doing, which is to say, i'm not going to build homes, i'm going to buy stock. first time ever. >> little bounce at the open dow is up almost the 2 hundred check bonds as well. i think goolsbee will be speaking today, but that's pretty...
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Apr 18, 2024
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powell saying, wait a second, things are not so hot that we are in a scorcher. and by the way, jb hunt, i think we're talking about cutting price. that's right cutting price that they charge that's what the fed wants. it isn't just a big mac that's got to go down a dollar. >> i think we have to keep an eye on sort of these, right now, somewhat anecdotal things. i'm hearing, as one-offs, restaurant -- you know, somebody i know runs a large group of restaurants, talking about rolling 12-month sales for liquor, down double digits, declines across hundreds of units, sales declines accelerating, and they believe the consumer is sort of back on their heels a little bit more. again, let's just keep an eye on it i'm glad you're mentioning it. we'll keep throwing things out there. it's unclear what it all means >> well, carl, you mentioned carmax, okay carvana is about to report carvana is a pretty good company. they've got the pulse of things. but if we go back, look at this. if we go back on carmax, they're the biggest. it was in '88 on march of this year $88. look at
powell saying, wait a second, things are not so hot that we are in a scorcher. and by the way, jb hunt, i think we're talking about cutting price. that's right cutting price that they charge that's what the fed wants. it isn't just a big mac that's got to go down a dollar. >> i think we have to keep an eye on sort of these, right now, somewhat anecdotal things. i'm hearing, as one-offs, restaurant -- you know, somebody i know runs a large group of restaurants, talking about rolling...