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Apr 4, 2024
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let's get back to the fed chair jay powell. yesterday signaling that policymakers will need clearer information of lower inflation before cutting interest rates. but he says the bump in prices recently hasn't altered the feds broader trajectory. >> let's bring in mark cranfield from bloomberg's mliv team now. mark, we saw treasury yields going through a bit of a round-trip yesterday. the hawkish comments from bostic sent yields higher. then you had powell a little dovish, sending front end yields lower, you also had the economic data feeding into the story. what market reaction could we see from the jobs data we have yet to come? >> if there is any big changes, we will see it in the foreign-exchange world. we are in a pretty interesting situation for the u.s. dollar. positioning-wise, traders are pretty long u.s. dollars, they have been for a few weeks, which is not surprising. we had a strong set of u.s. data. we have also had a fairly hawkish speakers from the federal reserve pushing back against early rate cuts. the jobs dat
let's get back to the fed chair jay powell. yesterday signaling that policymakers will need clearer information of lower inflation before cutting interest rates. but he says the bump in prices recently hasn't altered the feds broader trajectory. >> let's bring in mark cranfield from bloomberg's mliv team now. mark, we saw treasury yields going through a bit of a round-trip yesterday. the hawkish comments from bostic sent yields higher. then you had powell a little dovish, sending front...
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Apr 3, 2024
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at 5:10 p.m., we will hear from fed chair jay powell. coming up, president biden says israel is not doing enough to protect civilians in gaza after seven aid workers were killed in israeli airstrikes. more on that, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ lizzy: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." we will get the latest on the geopolitical situation in the middle east. the human toll is the focus, the death of aid workers in gaza. has to be said the geopolitical risk is feeding into the oil price. we have seen immense action in the oil space. wti crude hitting $85 a barrel for the first time since october. currently trading at $85.18. brent at $89 a barrel as well. questions are flying as to whether this is because of geopolitical risk and china optimism, or whether it might be about falling inventories. i got a note yesterday from sab's commodities team pointing out not a single drop of oil has been lost to recent events in the middle east, except for some rerouting around africa. what you have is a tight market and a steadfast opec-plus.
at 5:10 p.m., we will hear from fed chair jay powell. coming up, president biden says israel is not doing enough to protect civilians in gaza after seven aid workers were killed in israeli airstrikes. more on that, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ lizzy: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." we will get the latest on the geopolitical situation in the middle east. the human toll is the focus, the death of aid workers in gaza. has to be said the geopolitical risk is feeding into the...
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Apr 16, 2024
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it was the story of jay powell. we have spoken about the last mile of disinflation, whether it will take longer for the final stretch to get price pressures down to the target for the fed. not enough progress has been made. that is reflected through bond yields. we see them at year to date highs across the curve. the focus is on powell, speaking at a panel discussion alongside the bank of canada governor in washington. here is what he is saying about how much more patience is needed. >> we have said we will need greater confidence inflation is moving sustainably toward 2% before it would be appropriate to ease policy. we took that cautious approach and sought greater confidence to not overreact to the low inflation in the second half of last year. annabelle: for more, let's bring in sylvia jablonski, ceo / cio / co-founder, defiance etfs. sylvia: perhaps a little change of tune in the messaging from powell, but does it come as any surprise to you? i don't think his message is super different. the numbers came in une
it was the story of jay powell. we have spoken about the last mile of disinflation, whether it will take longer for the final stretch to get price pressures down to the target for the fed. not enough progress has been made. that is reflected through bond yields. we see them at year to date highs across the curve. the focus is on powell, speaking at a panel discussion alongside the bank of canada governor in washington. here is what he is saying about how much more patience is needed. >>...
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Apr 17, 2024
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we did hear jay powell reiterating the need for patients overnight. caution on the outlook for rate cuts as well given that the last mile of disinflation is proving to be very sticky to bring down. haidi: as long as needed was the wording that we had from jay powell. take a look at how u.s. futures are coming into the session. seeing a little bit of muted upside, about .1%. this is seen potentially as a shift in his message following a third straight month in which we saw the key measuring of inflation beating analyst forecasts. it also paints a picture of a fed that sees very little urgency to cut rates. any reductions could come relatively late in the year if at all. there are still some analysts seeing two to three rate cuts. coming up in the next hour, here why they believe chinese equity markets can trend higher even with its blemished economy. our markets coverage continues. the is next. ♪ >> more recent data shows solid growth in the labor market and a lack of further progress so far and returning to a 2% inflation goal.
we did hear jay powell reiterating the need for patients overnight. caution on the outlook for rate cuts as well given that the last mile of disinflation is proving to be very sticky to bring down. haidi: as long as needed was the wording that we had from jay powell. take a look at how u.s. futures are coming into the session. seeing a little bit of muted upside, about .1%. this is seen potentially as a shift in his message following a third straight month in which we saw the key measuring of...
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Apr 17, 2024
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talk to us about the market reaction we had been hearing from jay powell. >> yes. you might wonder whether the market reaction had been a little more violent in the u.s. session. we did see higher bond yields. nothing too profound considering this is the fed chair shifting slightly his view. i think because so many of the fed policymakers have already put that same idea out there, it is not really a surprise to see that eventually. even looking at what the market is factoring in. as well as the relative calm in the u.s. markets, it has moved over the past 10 days, we have those much higher tertiary yields. it is the best of the world that is bearing the brunt of this in some ways. as some girls are talking about with the fx market in asia under pressure in recent days from the strength of the dollar. it is our currency your problem once again. >> the hammer blow of the strong u.s. dollar being felt across the u.s. market. how is the fx base holding up? >> holding up better with white a lot out there. i did think it was significant, this comment from south korea tha
talk to us about the market reaction we had been hearing from jay powell. >> yes. you might wonder whether the market reaction had been a little more violent in the u.s. session. we did see higher bond yields. nothing too profound considering this is the fed chair shifting slightly his view. i think because so many of the fed policymakers have already put that same idea out there, it is not really a surprise to see that eventually. even looking at what the market is factoring in. as well...
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Apr 4, 2024
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we've got a lot of fed speak coming up that will add to what jay powell has said. we have seven fed speakers today. we have six more tomorrow. if you don't know what the open market committee is thinking, you should by tomorrow night or have a good idea of where we are going. i would imagine it will echo the jay powell who says we are not ready yet but maybe later this year. they will talk about the employment numbers and the inflation rates and we get a lot of that between now and the june meeting with may be the first rate cut if things go their way. we've got three made just labor market reports and three cpi reports into pce report so keep an eye on the data and we will have to see what ends up happening. caroline: whether we listen to the rap file bostick's or get more dovish from some of the other players. i'm interested in what's happening more broadly with the economic perspective of the u.s. economy when we look at the jobs number coming out tomorrow. how much do we think that might be a risk on/risk off moment? mike: probably not huge risk off unless we g
we've got a lot of fed speak coming up that will add to what jay powell has said. we have seven fed speakers today. we have six more tomorrow. if you don't know what the open market committee is thinking, you should by tomorrow night or have a good idea of where we are going. i would imagine it will echo the jay powell who says we are not ready yet but maybe later this year. they will talk about the employment numbers and the inflation rates and we get a lot of that between now and the june...
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Apr 29, 2024
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it's the korean won which has been sensitive to the actions of jay powell. were getting commentary from the likes of ocbc, jeffrey saying upside in dollar trade, count down to around 1335 per dollar by december. better demand, that is improving and also they start of the easing cycle adding to appeal. for equity markets it will be trade or read through from big tech earnings. we had microsoft, alphabet really impressing because the takeaway was they are spending on ai and cloud, that's paying off. best week for u.s. stocks in 2024. still farmer. haidi: of course potential expectation of a hawkish pivot and how that plays into asian central banks and economies. in the last leg of the cycle, the open, a couple of minutes into cash trading coming online in a staggered open. upside when it comes to sydney stocks. watching treasuries as well, expecting dollar and yields to get a lift higher. ozzie bonds following that trajectory. dollar is holding. against the backdrop of dollar strength, most other asian currencies, brent crude is holding the decline, u.s. stepp
it's the korean won which has been sensitive to the actions of jay powell. were getting commentary from the likes of ocbc, jeffrey saying upside in dollar trade, count down to around 1335 per dollar by december. better demand, that is improving and also they start of the easing cycle adding to appeal. for equity markets it will be trade or read through from big tech earnings. we had microsoft, alphabet really impressing because the takeaway was they are spending on ai and cloud, that's paying...
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Apr 17, 2024
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jonathan: the quote for me yesterday did not come from jay powell. it came from the vice chair, philip jefferson. i will share it with you now, the base outlook is that inflation will decline further with the policy rate hub steady at its current level. at the current level. our old friend pk would say extending the x-axis. on time and taking longer. lisa: and what you have now in markets, it's time. remember yesterday, what if the fed chair came out and said he was hopeful and not confident? that's the subtext, they are hopeful and not confident, the reason they are holding it higher for longer and right now the market is trying to come to terms with that. annmarie: i got that sense as well, that we are expecting the confidence to come with more data. john, you mentioned the timeline, that makes me think this is political. if they need more time, there's only a certain number of meetings and data points left before it becomes unfathomable. jonathan: let's talk about the politics. joe biden calling for higher tariffs on chinese steel. this from lael
jonathan: the quote for me yesterday did not come from jay powell. it came from the vice chair, philip jefferson. i will share it with you now, the base outlook is that inflation will decline further with the policy rate hub steady at its current level. at the current level. our old friend pk would say extending the x-axis. on time and taking longer. lisa: and what you have now in markets, it's time. remember yesterday, what if the fed chair came out and said he was hopeful and not confident?...
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Apr 3, 2024
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jay powell's q&a following his remarks. we'll get to that in a moment they have aussie $a bit of a bep fishery from rare u.s. dollar weakness, 65.66 at the moment. let's take a look at how we're doing for japan. futures right now a little bit negative territory. not really by much. the yen didn't weak p much as a result of dollar strength. that's still hovering around the 151-152 level. a little weakness in new zealand in the early going. crude prices in focus. we did have -- crude prices rising at the moment. opec didn't make any change to output curves, that was very much as expected. of course middle east tension and ukraine attacks all keeping those oil prices. haidi: let's look at u.s. futures at the moment we had the reaction to what we heard from fed chair powell. futures looking optimistic, in positive territory at the moment when it comes to small growth related names on the nasdaq 100 in futures trading. it was a volatile last hour of trading on wall street. eventually regaining their footing to go higher. paul me
jay powell's q&a following his remarks. we'll get to that in a moment they have aussie $a bit of a bep fishery from rare u.s. dollar weakness, 65.66 at the moment. let's take a look at how we're doing for japan. futures right now a little bit negative territory. not really by much. the yen didn't weak p much as a result of dollar strength. that's still hovering around the 151-152 level. a little weakness in new zealand in the early going. crude prices in focus. we did have -- crude prices...
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Apr 28, 2024
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bloomberg economics expects jay powell to dampen help of a cut. the job reports will show payroll growth slowing to do hundred thousand this month after surging by over 300,000 in march. in asia, april pmi's they're probably edged lower after surges in march and japan will release a slew of eco data after the boj left rates unchanged. looking at the results from all four chinese megabanks of this monday. bloomberg's intelligence is earnings persisting there even if the banks avoid a part. hsbc, standard charter releasing results this week. we are also waiting for earnings from the magnificent seven stocks, apple, amazon reporting after mixed results last week from their peers. samsung's results to out after preliminary numbers showed a sharp profit rebound in the first quarter, and vanke will be reporting. that is your week ahead. annabelle: a lot for investors to be digesting over the coming days, but let's get golf with one of the key events on the calendar, and that is the fed meeting wrapping this week and bring in andrew tilton. he joins us n
bloomberg economics expects jay powell to dampen help of a cut. the job reports will show payroll growth slowing to do hundred thousand this month after surging by over 300,000 in march. in asia, april pmi's they're probably edged lower after surges in march and japan will release a slew of eco data after the boj left rates unchanged. looking at the results from all four chinese megabanks of this monday. bloomberg's intelligence is earnings persisting there even if the banks avoid a part. hsbc,...
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Apr 4, 2024
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jon: fed chair jay powell signaling patients as the central bank awaits more data. jobless claims setting the stage for tomorrow's main event, the payroll event. "the jobs report will hold the most sway, particularly as the labor market looks to be gaining momentum once again." another solid pace of hiring looking to rise payrolls. the bloomberg survey calling for slightly lower print of 213. we are going to now for more. jennifer, that's get into the labor market data on friday. are you expecting that come with hotter inflation, hotter wage growth? jennifer: thank you for having me on. that will probably be the most critical piece of data we will be looking for in that report the average hourly wages. especially last friday with the wages and salaries, the personal spending report that was up .8% which was a shocker to yours truly. we will see how that pans out with the earnings numbers and the jobs report. obviously, if looking for something with a bit of a hotter number, that is going to put more fed dovish into play. lisa: do you put more weight on the 10% figur
jon: fed chair jay powell signaling patients as the central bank awaits more data. jobless claims setting the stage for tomorrow's main event, the payroll event. "the jobs report will hold the most sway, particularly as the labor market looks to be gaining momentum once again." another solid pace of hiring looking to rise payrolls. the bloomberg survey calling for slightly lower print of 213. we are going to now for more. jennifer, that's get into the labor market data on friday. are...
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Apr 3, 2024
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i would love to hear that from jay powell. jonathan: are you willing to trade financial stability for price stability? is that the question? lisa: that could be one of them. are you willing to trade blowing out pockets of the population and reducing their chances for employment and wealth and prosperity in order to target a certain inflation target? i don't know the answer but this is a socially conscious issue and that is weighing on them at a time when it seems like things are being pretty positive and we seem to be talking leaving the rates where they are. jonathan: equity futures are negative by 0.25% on the s&p 500. here is your bloomberg brief. >> inflation in europe is inching toward 2%, firming up prospects of a june rate cut at the ecb. consumer prices rising 2.4% in march, lower rate than analysts forecast and down from 2.6% in february. cpi also eased at a faster rate than expected. the ecb president christine lagarde has signaled a first rate cut in june with much of the central bank's governing council on board wi
i would love to hear that from jay powell. jonathan: are you willing to trade financial stability for price stability? is that the question? lisa: that could be one of them. are you willing to trade blowing out pockets of the population and reducing their chances for employment and wealth and prosperity in order to target a certain inflation target? i don't know the answer but this is a socially conscious issue and that is weighing on them at a time when it seems like things are being pretty...
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Apr 26, 2024
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obviously he had no love for jay powell when he was in office. it is plausible. but the idea the president should participate in any kind of monetary policymaking would really upset wall street. because then you bring in the idea of politics. you look at what happened in turkey, when erdogan decided where interest rates should go. it is probably a nonstarter. but as with just about anything donald trump, you cannot be sure. sonali: thank you for keeping an eye on the possibilities on what is ahead. we will talk more about the inflation data. wells fargo's senior economist joins me now. if you look at what we got this morning, did anything make you think differently of how you think the bond market can progress from here? >> i think what we learned today is may be inflation in the first quarter was not quite as bad as feared, in terms of momentum picking up in march. we saw in terms of why the q1 numbers came in so much hotter yesterday. it was really more a function of january inflation being revised higher. there is good news, we did not see a big pickup and mom
obviously he had no love for jay powell when he was in office. it is plausible. but the idea the president should participate in any kind of monetary policymaking would really upset wall street. because then you bring in the idea of politics. you look at what happened in turkey, when erdogan decided where interest rates should go. it is probably a nonstarter. but as with just about anything donald trump, you cannot be sure. sonali: thank you for keeping an eye on the possibilities on what is...
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Apr 3, 2024
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what got your attention in terms of newsmaking headlines today from jay powell? enda: he is saying we are not totally sold inflation is back where it should be. he did not hand they will cut rates anytime soon. as kaylee was saying, he made the point that when you look back now a lot of inflation was because there was such a shortage of everything. you could not get semiconductors or workers. he is making the point that that is being unwound now and helping things. there is a political debate. a lot of people say the current administration is spending too much money. joe: you are that every day. enda: those concerns might resurface overtime. there is nothing new from rates on a homeowners listing but more expensive thinking about a broader economy. kailey: on the supply side he was questions about whether the fed's monetary policy tool of using interest rates to influence the economy was working to the same extent considering the growth we have seen. he brought that baptism five. he said -- rot that back to supply trade he said monetary policy is broadly working
what got your attention in terms of newsmaking headlines today from jay powell? enda: he is saying we are not totally sold inflation is back where it should be. he did not hand they will cut rates anytime soon. as kaylee was saying, he made the point that when you look back now a lot of inflation was because there was such a shortage of everything. you could not get semiconductors or workers. he is making the point that that is being unwound now and helping things. there is a political debate....
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Apr 8, 2024
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jay powell has firmly anchored his view that there will be interest rate cuts. more than likely it is a projection, not a promise. it also means they don't have to rush. rapid hikes that -- don't seem to have slowed growth down that much. let's not forget we have been with inflation. pce. the inflation measure that the fed bases its supercenter target on has come down dramatically from where we were in 2022. at one point in 2022, pce was about 7%. it is now 2.5%. you're also probably going to hear a lot of talk about the last one being the hardest and so forth. we just need to see a continuation of numbers. we don't have to necessarily be better. it is an average of 2% over time. >> all right. it seems clear at least that the u.s. is not in a rush to cut rates. and yet for the ecb, this looks but emotion out onto many at this point. so with this diversions, what about the weaker euro feeding into the european inflation story. >> what is transpiring is much more clear. munication has been much less vague. even the austrians are typically like hard money recognize
jay powell has firmly anchored his view that there will be interest rate cuts. more than likely it is a projection, not a promise. it also means they don't have to rush. rapid hikes that -- don't seem to have slowed growth down that much. let's not forget we have been with inflation. pce. the inflation measure that the fed bases its supercenter target on has come down dramatically from where we were in 2022. at one point in 2022, pce was about 7%. it is now 2.5%. you're also probably going to...
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Apr 4, 2024
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here are the top stories, asian stocks ride -- rise with fed chair jay powell reaffirming his view that rate cuts are still likely this year despite strength in the u.s. economy. oil extends its rally with opec-plus, also ahead, we're live to taipei for an update on earthquake recovery efforts as crucial chipmakers resume production. and we have some great guests weighing in this hour and the outlook for india's active markets. asia tracking gains in the u.s., traders taking some comfort from jay powell saying that perhaps those direct cuts are coming this year. he also said that recent inflation data has not distorted the picture. all eyes on the jobs data coming out of the u.s., for greater clarity, s&p futures also heading up by .2%. we are keeping an eye on the dollar, weakening on the back of what powell said. then he kate leading the pack higher for investors who have been eager to buy japanese stocks. boosting profits for the likes of toyota and high taxi. -- hitachi. china is on holiday along with hong kong and taiwan. all three markets on holiday, tomorrow hong kong will be com
here are the top stories, asian stocks ride -- rise with fed chair jay powell reaffirming his view that rate cuts are still likely this year despite strength in the u.s. economy. oil extends its rally with opec-plus, also ahead, we're live to taipei for an update on earthquake recovery efforts as crucial chipmakers resume production. and we have some great guests weighing in this hour and the outlook for india's active markets. asia tracking gains in the u.s., traders taking some comfort from...
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Apr 30, 2024
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jay powell tried to be as boring as possible tomorrow. jonathan: that's the promo for our special fed covers tomorrow afternoon. euro-dollar and dollar-yen, the euro at the moment is about unchanged at $1.07 and the data out of europe is better. they are doing better than expected in the euro is still in and around 107 -- $1.07. if i told you one dollar 57 cents a week ago, you might say it problematic. it's still a problem for the boj. how much of a problem it is i don't know. the ministry of finance has been very vocal about this and the boj's been very quiet and it seemed to be satisfied based on its communication with where policy is and where markets are. lisa: this is the reason why the market is not really believing they will intervene with any kind of conviction. that's the reason why people are willing to fight the foreign minister in the ministry of foreign exchange in japan because they haven't a strong connection and we haven't seen that from the bank of japan. is it a victory for the yen to trade around $1.55 versus the $1.70
jay powell tried to be as boring as possible tomorrow. jonathan: that's the promo for our special fed covers tomorrow afternoon. euro-dollar and dollar-yen, the euro at the moment is about unchanged at $1.07 and the data out of europe is better. they are doing better than expected in the euro is still in and around 107 -- $1.07. if i told you one dollar 57 cents a week ago, you might say it problematic. it's still a problem for the boj. how much of a problem it is i don't know. the ministry of...
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Apr 16, 2024
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it little bit in down as we await jay powell speaking later. all important for the bond market which saw a selloff earlier. nevertheless, we see money going back into big tech. msci all country under pressure. bitcoin off by one point 3% as the u.s. dollar marches higher. what will we hear on inflationary pressure? move over, have a look at some of the names. i said europe was under pressure. why is basically sending many -- money abroad. revenue up 24% for this particular fintech darling. it was not as much as much as the market wanted to see. tesla off by more than 2%, as they see executives leave and as much as 20% in head cuts. netflix outperforming today. upgrades to the price targets coming from various analysts today. what are you looking at in other earnings areas? ed: banks are big this tuesday. ai has been changing the game. listen to a soundbite from pnc earlier today. >> technology now is allowing us to move data to the cloud and then to do things with artificial intelligence that we never could do before. it now is being used by ou
it little bit in down as we await jay powell speaking later. all important for the bond market which saw a selloff earlier. nevertheless, we see money going back into big tech. msci all country under pressure. bitcoin off by one point 3% as the u.s. dollar marches higher. what will we hear on inflationary pressure? move over, have a look at some of the names. i said europe was under pressure. why is basically sending many -- money abroad. revenue up 24% for this particular fintech darling. it...
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Apr 1, 2024
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jay powell talked about that friday. they don't have to get started right away with cutting interest rates. katie: catch us up about what we learned friday. we had pce and we heard from jay powell himself. a lot of us were working so what did we hear? mike: basically, we saw the pce inflation numbers going down still. the speed of the decline was falling off. what howell was saying is we see that and we see the strength of the economy and we are not convinced yet that we are going to be completely on the path to the 2% target. because the economy is strong and we will get friday is jobs report friday, they can wait because they don't need to stimulate the economy is his view. with today's data, that reinforces that. katie: thank you so much and you can see the reaction in the bond market. 10 year treasury yields are currently higher by about zero point 10%. we've a great guest to delve into this. nancytengler is with us. let me start with valuations. it feels like after several months of stocks going straight up, when yo
jay powell talked about that friday. they don't have to get started right away with cutting interest rates. katie: catch us up about what we learned friday. we had pce and we heard from jay powell himself. a lot of us were working so what did we hear? mike: basically, we saw the pce inflation numbers going down still. the speed of the decline was falling off. what howell was saying is we see that and we see the strength of the economy and we are not convinced yet that we are going to be...
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Apr 1, 2024
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jonathan: jay powell sent to speak wednesday at of the jobs report friday. he said the fed is in no hurry to cut rates after hotter than expected prints to start the year. randy, great to catch up with you. fantastic to get your thoughts on a major issue. the conversation we have been having is whether the federal reserve is beginning to drift towards accepting a higher inflation rate. is that your sense of things or do you push that? randy: i do not think that is even likely or consistent with the fed communication. just before disinflationary surge started, the fed went through a comprehensive review of its monetary policy framework. meetings all over the country. it took a year. as part of the process, the fed reaffirmed the 2% inflation target as part of the framework. it would be [indiscernible] jonathan: i believe we might have lost our connection to randy quarles. peter, your thoughts? this is a big debate. it seems to be split. the early indication from randy is he did not agree. why are you closer to 3% when they are sticking to 2%? peter: they seem
jonathan: jay powell sent to speak wednesday at of the jobs report friday. he said the fed is in no hurry to cut rates after hotter than expected prints to start the year. randy, great to catch up with you. fantastic to get your thoughts on a major issue. the conversation we have been having is whether the federal reserve is beginning to drift towards accepting a higher inflation rate. is that your sense of things or do you push that? randy: i do not think that is even likely or consistent with...
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Apr 17, 2024
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powell. that is probably the biggest driver of equities over the past week, and probably over the coming quarter. whereby inflation has been stubbornly sticky so far this year, and as a result you had chairman powell talk about they have the patience to maybe wait a while before they cut rates. and as a result you've seen the markets start this year expecting six or seven rate cuts, and now they are pricing in one or two at best. the good news is that the markets have done a pretty good job, notwithstanding the last few days, of really digesting and handling this. when one considers that stocks are still up from where they were last fall when interest rates were about the same level. equities have done well, corporate earnings have been fairly strong. despite the fact this rate tightening cycle begin a couple of years ago, there is a lab to that -- a lag to that, the economy has done pretty well. when one considers the unemployment rate in the u.s. has been below 4% for over two years, actual
powell. that is probably the biggest driver of equities over the past week, and probably over the coming quarter. whereby inflation has been stubbornly sticky so far this year, and as a result you had chairman powell talk about they have the patience to maybe wait a while before they cut rates. and as a result you've seen the markets start this year expecting six or seven rate cuts, and now they are pricing in one or two at best. the good news is that the markets have done a pretty good job,...
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Apr 4, 2024
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fed chair jay powell sing the recent data has materially change the overall picture. chris saying we see reduced odds of recession and rate cuts converging towards a goldilocks backdrop. markets are strong with q1 returns driven by -- there was some rotation in march which should continue in a soft landing. chris, let's start there. why can this rotation continue. >> if you believe we're in for a soft landing it sure doesn't feel like goldilocks but the data seems to indicate it is. the small-cap stocks are going to do relatively better and stop hiding out in the mega cap tech expecting higher rates. jonathan: are they to be the winners in the next quarter? >> a little bit idiosyncratic because you're worried about credit issues and real estate obviously. small-cap industrials which do well at the end of last year we expected it to continue to do well for the rest of the year. >> one of your ways of thinking about the world is to select a small number of stocks you invested into a lot of research on. we talk about the macro picture. how much of the macro picture has c
fed chair jay powell sing the recent data has materially change the overall picture. chris saying we see reduced odds of recession and rate cuts converging towards a goldilocks backdrop. markets are strong with q1 returns driven by -- there was some rotation in march which should continue in a soft landing. chris, let's start there. why can this rotation continue. >> if you believe we're in for a soft landing it sure doesn't feel like goldilocks but the data seems to indicate it is. the...
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Apr 5, 2024
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we take some reassurance from jay powell's comments. he stood behind the three cuts in the dot plot. that is something he reiterated. i believe in the footage that the labor market is becoming important. there are other factors they are considering and not just broader market liquidity. while some of these statistics look good there are others that would support the idea of because. sonali: what do you think about what it means in perspective of the data we will see next week with inflation given we have already seen hints of heat when it comes to wages? >> we are seeing a cyclical pickup in the economy and growth expectations higher. does it translate into upper moment of inflation? the argument for rate cuts continues to weaken. learning from last year high growth, healthy labor market can exist with volume inflation and we will be putting that to the test. sonali: do you find these as buying opportunities or do you wait before stepping and further? ed: cost average in something like this you have to be slow giving the momentum in the
we take some reassurance from jay powell's comments. he stood behind the three cuts in the dot plot. that is something he reiterated. i believe in the footage that the labor market is becoming important. there are other factors they are considering and not just broader market liquidity. while some of these statistics look good there are others that would support the idea of because. sonali: what do you think about what it means in perspective of the data we will see next week with inflation...
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Apr 16, 2024
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jay powell delivery remarks later this afternoon and earlier this afternoon mohamed el-erian commented on the move. >> authorities are frozen on the world on how do you react to generalized dollar strengthening. how do you react to increasing interest rates in the u.s. and unfortunately in the past those two things go too far they bring something else with them. sonali: we will discuss this with bloomberg fx reporter anya andrianova. if you think about the relationship between interest rates and what you're seeing in the dollar how do you describe what is going on best? >> sometimes they can work step in step and sometimes the correlation is not always as the rates go high the dollar does get support. today it is not only the rates. today we have geopolitical risks. that is also increasing the dollars. with that together, it is a pretty good season for the dollar. sonali: how do you think about what happens next? your point about the dollar as a safe haven currency plus what is happening with interest rates, have been a lot of concerns for a long time the dollar has been flying too hig
jay powell delivery remarks later this afternoon and earlier this afternoon mohamed el-erian commented on the move. >> authorities are frozen on the world on how do you react to generalized dollar strengthening. how do you react to increasing interest rates in the u.s. and unfortunately in the past those two things go too far they bring something else with them. sonali: we will discuss this with bloomberg fx reporter anya andrianova. if you think about the relationship between interest...
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Apr 29, 2024
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i agree with what we heard in the drop that jay powell have to come into the meeting swinging so he can help depressed financial conditions so that there can be more traction of monetary policy in the real economy. >> what kind of language does that mean exactly? >> he has some flexibility and i think we could hear something like -- monetary policy clearly has more work to do. yes, some of the inflationary results we've seen have been troubling. we did think they could have been a temporary blip to start the year it is proving to be more persistent. he could even say something like consensus on the committee is shifting towards fewer rate cuts. we don't get the next summary until june identity sort of indication like that would be a hawkish move. >> the other thing you explored in the story was the reasons for higher rates and the reasons for the growth we are seeing. what is the most likely scenario here? is this a more confidence in year in a more sustained growth rate that would also lead to a greater neutral right as well? at what point do we see that kind of discussion more comfort
i agree with what we heard in the drop that jay powell have to come into the meeting swinging so he can help depressed financial conditions so that there can be more traction of monetary policy in the real economy. >> what kind of language does that mean exactly? >> he has some flexibility and i think we could hear something like -- monetary policy clearly has more work to do. yes, some of the inflationary results we've seen have been troubling. we did think they could have been a...
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Apr 29, 2024
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. >> there is a little bit of jay powell waiting for the fed. we get closer to that meeting. look at how your futures are setting up. nasdaq 100 futures looking just modestly to the upside. we are seeing that set up a positive year in asia. the urgency season kicking off in a pretty good note. the company is continuing to show leadership there. this is a picture cross u.s. bonds. yields have been trending lower. we are just waiting for the fed. we are potentially watching the rba. now that the cba have pushed back at first rate cut to november. we are watching through looking pretty flat. the big story has been currency. trainers warning that governments may need to ask repeatedly. that's of the surge fuels speculation of intervention. paul joins us now. the question is still out if it really matters in that sense. what are the expectations in terms of where the momentum and trade goes from here? question morning heidi. i think the signs in the oven is .2 strong suspicions that the doj and the mof were in the market. they have done so given the pressure that the committee has
. >> there is a little bit of jay powell waiting for the fed. we get closer to that meeting. look at how your futures are setting up. nasdaq 100 futures looking just modestly to the upside. we are seeing that set up a positive year in asia. the urgency season kicking off in a pretty good note. the company is continuing to show leadership there. this is a picture cross u.s. bonds. yields have been trending lower. we are just waiting for the fed. we are potentially watching the rba. now...
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Apr 29, 2024
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jay powell is expected to hold steady. u.s. data continues to run hot and we will run down payrolls friday. looking ahead to big events around the table. let's start with payrolls and skip the fed. 250 is an estimate so are you looking for a punchy number? >> we are but we are looking for a number which is arguably more important. a supply-side story. jonathan: how much weakening are begetting? >> if you look at the cbo numbers where they were a year ago, it's about 2 million more people per year than they previously expected. this is why we are talking about 200 50 type numbers and we are not that scared. sarah: we are looking for higher inflation and people are spending money but are the wages going up because we've got an influx of people? that's where it's a tough thing from an economic standpoint because wages cannot move up as fast if i plenty of labor supply. people are getting hired but are they dealing with the fact that goods have gone up in terms of pricing in the levels haven't come down? >> when you look at the sta
jay powell is expected to hold steady. u.s. data continues to run hot and we will run down payrolls friday. looking ahead to big events around the table. let's start with payrolls and skip the fed. 250 is an estimate so are you looking for a punchy number? >> we are but we are looking for a number which is arguably more important. a supply-side story. jonathan: how much weakening are begetting? >> if you look at the cbo numbers where they were a year ago, it's about 2 million more...
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Apr 5, 2024
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jay powell has told us that is what they are looking at. the strength of the labor market, if it starts to get weaker, they would consider cutting sooner. that could be reflected in the unemployment rate. we are seeing all these people coming into the labor force, which affects the unemployment rate more than it affects the headline numbers. jonathan: which are rather be here or in lake como with the mohamed el-erian? where would you rather be? mike: if i were to be honest, i would go to the lake because i could get on the internet and watch the bloomberg numbers. jonathan: this is basically me lobbing to take us to the forum next year. and mean, seriously. lisa: mohamed a el-erian saying it is rough for him because he is there with all the cameras. jonathan: shocking. coming up very shortly, mohamed a el-erian in lake como to break down the jobs report. and jeff rosenberg slumming it at blackrock hq. catch up with them in just a moment. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ ok y'all we got 10 orders coming in... big orders! starting a
jay powell has told us that is what they are looking at. the strength of the labor market, if it starts to get weaker, they would consider cutting sooner. that could be reflected in the unemployment rate. we are seeing all these people coming into the labor force, which affects the unemployment rate more than it affects the headline numbers. jonathan: which are rather be here or in lake como with the mohamed el-erian? where would you rather be? mike: if i were to be honest, i would go to the...
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Apr 29, 2024
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., across the treasury curve, how much sensitivity is there to a jay powell does to cement in a private -- pivot toward a more hawkish fed? because that would be a reaction in the treasury market. traders have not given up on the idea the federal reserve will cut at least once probably in the fourth quarter. they've already scaled back a long way. they have not completely ruled out the possibility the fed will be able to do that. if jerome powell leans a bit more hawkish than people are expecting, you certainly have some reasons to do that because inflation data just last week was a little bit harder than he would have wanted to see. employment situation -- the data is not supporting the case for the federal reserve to cut rates at all. we have this overhang here still talking about three cuts. there will need to tweak that when they meet in june. here we are with time not on his side. he will have to be realistic about it. he may even have to give a hint that i don't see any reason for us to move. he can take his time. taking his time might be good until 2025. if the bond market here i
., across the treasury curve, how much sensitivity is there to a jay powell does to cement in a private -- pivot toward a more hawkish fed? because that would be a reaction in the treasury market. traders have not given up on the idea the federal reserve will cut at least once probably in the fourth quarter. they've already scaled back a long way. they have not completely ruled out the possibility the fed will be able to do that. if jerome powell leans a bit more hawkish than people are...
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Apr 1, 2024
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jonathan: up next, a patient jay powell. >> growth under 2% this year is roughly what this year looks like. we are not in a hurry to cut. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: live from new york city, equities bouncing back. adding some weight to the present rally of more than 10%. let's check in on byd unit sales. up 46% year on year. the growth is nominal. this is where the competition is right now in a major way. annmarie: it is why you see the u.s. potentially adding more and not allowing china's vehicles to come in. they want to make sure that they can have their own automakers competitive. but jonathan, look at these numbers happening in china. you are seeing them cut prices just remain competitive. jonathan: under surveillance this morning, a patient chair powell. >> the economy is strong. we saw growth over 3%. many see forecasters -- that means we do not need to be in a hurry to cut. can rate and become more confident that inflation is coming down on a sustainable basis. jonathan: reinforcing bets the central bank will cut rates later this year. we will hear from him lat
jonathan: up next, a patient jay powell. >> growth under 2% this year is roughly what this year looks like. we are not in a hurry to cut. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: live from new york city, equities bouncing back. adding some weight to the present rally of more than 10%. let's check in on byd unit sales. up 46% year on year. the growth is nominal. this is where the competition is right now in a major way. annmarie: it is why you see the u.s. potentially adding more and not...
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Apr 22, 2024
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economy and there is no need for justification for jay powell to reduce the benchmark so that is playing into the dynamic on the japanese yen holding close to 155 but certainly as well the big impact on emergency -- emerging currencies and the finance secretary of the philippines is talking about of rate cut if the peso gets weaker and he told us the delay should not affect the government's growth goal. >> for the last 20 years we have had a relatively stable currency , more or less around 55 cents 2004, 55 peso to the u.s. dollar. >> are you worried about it weakening to the 59 arena? 57 was the line in the stand and i think it is pushed to for -- and i feel like it is pushed to 59 now. >> it is a possibility. >> if the peso gets weaker passed 59 potentially you will have to hold off on interest rate reduction? >> that is right. >> that is a big statement. >> potentially. >> starting where we started with janet yellen meeting with her counterparts from south korea japan do you think because the u.s. need south korea and japan and the philippines as partners against china you almost have
economy and there is no need for justification for jay powell to reduce the benchmark so that is playing into the dynamic on the japanese yen holding close to 155 but certainly as well the big impact on emergency -- emerging currencies and the finance secretary of the philippines is talking about of rate cut if the peso gets weaker and he told us the delay should not affect the government's growth goal. >> for the last 20 years we have had a relatively stable currency , more or less...
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Apr 3, 2024
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j pound -- jay powell has made it clear there is nothing to fear. he has set a couple of times we are well into restrictive territory. not just restrictive, but well into, which means policy can still be failing tight, even if they ease up a bit. haslinda: but this is a market that wants to keep believing that the rate cuts are coming. we've seen expectations go from seven to 32 perhaps even two now. and yet we are seeing others at a record high. >> you you -- look at the yield story. if you look around outside of the u.s., things look really soft at a moment. i think it's quite a logical conclusion, people will still be looking toward the dollar and the u.s. equity markets. that is as long as the fed sticks to its guns and says that rate cuts are coming. haslinda: what are you betting on, where are 10-year yield headed? >> we are looking for a steeper car. the 10-year yield is very much a reaction to where the real rates are. as you said, powell believes we are well into restrictive territory. it is still fairly restrictive, even if they lower the
j pound -- jay powell has made it clear there is nothing to fear. he has set a couple of times we are well into restrictive territory. not just restrictive, but well into, which means policy can still be failing tight, even if they ease up a bit. haslinda: but this is a market that wants to keep believing that the rate cuts are coming. we've seen expectations go from seven to 32 perhaps even two now. and yet we are seeing others at a record high. >> you you -- look at the yield story. if...
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Apr 2, 2024
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lizzy: so, fed chair jay powell speaking out. a key influence on the fed's thinking is going to be the u.s. jobs report on friday for march. this is really the key highlight of the week when it comes to economic data. if we just think back to the last report, you could see that the unemployment reading was at a two-year high. estimates offer a 3.8 percent reading this time. if you flip the port over, the last print saw the biggest revision to the month before in over a year. so really, we need to keep an eye on volatility here. if we flip the board again, you can see job status surprises has been relatively strong. so, this could be a very interesting day for markets. on friday we will have full coverage -- full coverage for you here on bloomberg tv. you've already seen fed rate cut bets being pushed back. such a dramatic change from the start of the year. we had the factory data yesterday showing this resilience in the economy again. more resilient than economists had expected. inflation falling more slowly as well than economis
lizzy: so, fed chair jay powell speaking out. a key influence on the fed's thinking is going to be the u.s. jobs report on friday for march. this is really the key highlight of the week when it comes to economic data. if we just think back to the last report, you could see that the unemployment reading was at a two-year high. estimates offer a 3.8 percent reading this time. if you flip the port over, the last print saw the biggest revision to the month before in over a year. so really, we need...
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Apr 10, 2024
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jay powell presumably wants to achieve consensus. he's only had eight meetings at a 51 in which there's even been dissent, so he will try to convince the committee, but he cannot convince the committee of something it does not want to believe on average, so he's not going to be able to get consensus around a june rate cut. i don't know if he would even want to push one at this stage. unless there's something weird in this data, i would love to see what pushed this. it sounds high. it stefan lee moran play than the fed once. i still think they ought to normalize over time. >> it's too soon to say whether the recent readings represent more than a bump, said shery ahn powell -- said chairman powell. >> i think they are creating a problem for themselves in terms of the promises of rate cuts and inability to execute on them. forward guidance has locked them into something because they want to do something the data is not allowing. i think they want to change it. whether they will becomes an interesting question. i think there's enough dov
jay powell presumably wants to achieve consensus. he's only had eight meetings at a 51 in which there's even been dissent, so he will try to convince the committee, but he cannot convince the committee of something it does not want to believe on average, so he's not going to be able to get consensus around a june rate cut. i don't know if he would even want to push one at this stage. unless there's something weird in this data, i would love to see what pushed this. it sounds high. it stefan lee...
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Apr 26, 2024
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i think what jay powell is going to do is basically say he has lost a lot of confidence in the views in terms of where inflation is going, but they have not shifted those views in a material way. he's going to downplay what the acp in march was telling us, and he's going to look to june for the bigger shift in the fed. we will see that in the light of what we get in the next two sense of readings. jonathan: just got some reaction, this from inflation in site the title is, core pce, fugue. yesterday there was a risk of a big upside surprise, which is why we are saying in-line feels like a downside surprise. yesterday new highs for 2024. this morning pulling back, particularly on a 10 year. bruce, i'm thinking who else is saying few this morning. it is officially the ministry of finance in japan. if they are looking at dollar-yen staying up and approaching 1.57, the last thing they needed was an upside surprise. can we take this global? what are finance ministries around the world staring down the arrow of this resilient dollar? what are they going to do? bruce: the first point to make
i think what jay powell is going to do is basically say he has lost a lot of confidence in the views in terms of where inflation is going, but they have not shifted those views in a material way. he's going to downplay what the acp in march was telling us, and he's going to look to june for the bigger shift in the fed. we will see that in the light of what we get in the next two sense of readings. jonathan: just got some reaction, this from inflation in site the title is, core pce, fugue....
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Apr 30, 2024
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powell. elsewhere we are seeing the bloomberg dollar index holding pretty steady. we heard that no doubt from the bank of australia pushing back its rates. expectations for the rba from september now not expecting a cut until november. let's bring in garfield reynolds who leads our markets live coverage pretty let's start with the post-manic monday situation for the yen. it looks like they did probably intervene. commentary was still kind of ambiguous. if we assume that they did, they are not getting much bang for their buck. garfield: that is one of the things that have you wondering if they did, although from our point of view, if japan did intervene in the yen, they might have to some extent been forced into it. because you had thin liquidity, the yen almost went through the 160.20 dollar level that was the weakest since 1990. if you go past that, it is than back until the 1980's in terms of how weak the level is, what the scope of the climb is. to some extent it is the kind of territory w
powell. elsewhere we are seeing the bloomberg dollar index holding pretty steady. we heard that no doubt from the bank of australia pushing back its rates. expectations for the rba from september now not expecting a cut until november. let's bring in garfield reynolds who leads our markets live coverage pretty let's start with the post-manic monday situation for the yen. it looks like they did probably intervene. commentary was still kind of ambiguous. if we assume that they did, they are not...
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Apr 29, 2024
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it is hard for jay powell to hold to the market. it is hard to say that they think their current stance is not restricted sufficiently enough, so we think those are off the table for the moment. he just has to be this -- to be in this annoying market watching mode, but it does push things out further for longer. haslinda: we will have to leave it there. still ahead, startups in india have seen funding valuations fall. we speak to a vc who is bullish on the countries emerging businesses and the beauty and food sectors. we will be joined by them later this afternoon. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ haslinda: welcome back. elon musk is in china on an unannounced trip, seeking approval for driver assistance software that could help to raise tesla's revenue decline. we heard from the ceo in beijing. >> good to see electric vehicles making progress in china. haslinda: let's bring in our chief north asia correspondent in beijing. of course, the timing is interesting. he just delayed his trip to india. you feel like there is a
it is hard for jay powell to hold to the market. it is hard to say that they think their current stance is not restricted sufficiently enough, so we think those are off the table for the moment. he just has to be this -- to be in this annoying market watching mode, but it does push things out further for longer. haslinda: we will have to leave it there. still ahead, startups in india have seen funding valuations fall. we speak to a vc who is bullish on the countries emerging businesses and the...
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Apr 10, 2024
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david: chair jay powell has talked about specifically. are there aberrations you see in this data. you've some people saying this is really housing and auto insurance. there are a couple of outliers. is that right? >> you can always find particular indicators, that are up or down. when you are making up a story month after month that's a problem. when commodity prices are spiking and those are being taken as a market indicator of inflation expectations, when breakevens have risen, when the political economy of the country is heavily about inflation trying to dismiss it on an indicator by indicator basis, is it an up -- is an odd thing to do. a technical subject priced in for housing. i don't think there are many americans who feel like housing is becoming more affordable these days. we really don't. so to argue that somehow housing isn't a source of inflation psychology seems to me to be quite a surprising view to take. why are we thinking about rate cuts when the economy is below what the fed thinks is the normal unemployment rate. when the economy is growing faster above target a
david: chair jay powell has talked about specifically. are there aberrations you see in this data. you've some people saying this is really housing and auto insurance. there are a couple of outliers. is that right? >> you can always find particular indicators, that are up or down. when you are making up a story month after month that's a problem. when commodity prices are spiking and those are being taken as a market indicator of inflation expectations, when breakevens have risen, when...
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Apr 30, 2024
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but i think what the message, their key metrics and key point in the coming meeting is how jay powell could surprise the market, but not shock the market . as with a major task he has is to help the market navigates the revision of the record. in the latest meeting, they projected a rate cut at the end of this year, but now the market has downsized about one, or even nine. so they will not make a decision in this meeting, but they have to prepare for the next meeting and what they will tell the market about what they are thinking about inflation, whether it will keep pushing up or whether it could materially impact their projection for rate cuts. so that this state the market is ready for one rate cut. now it is even getting ready for it}. -- a rates rise. paul: we also have sluggish gdp figures out of the u.s. is stagflation something you are starting to think about and are you positioning for that? >> based on the market response in the past week, the perfect scenario that mike is approaching it is that the economy still stays above matter. they come to terms with the fact that infl
but i think what the message, their key metrics and key point in the coming meeting is how jay powell could surprise the market, but not shock the market . as with a major task he has is to help the market navigates the revision of the record. in the latest meeting, they projected a rate cut at the end of this year, but now the market has downsized about one, or even nine. so they will not make a decision in this meeting, but they have to prepare for the next meeting and what they will tell the...
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Apr 16, 2024
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coming up, looking ahead to fed chair jay powell's comments later this afternoon. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ (upbeat music) there's more to business than the business you're in. if you use data, that's the privacy business. manufacturing on demand? you're talking cloud business. got a few million hyper-connected customers? digital experience business. that was fast. that's where deloitte comes in. with the right combination of talent and technology to help advance and connect all that it takes to excel in business ... to the business i'm in. deloitte. jonathan: a shaky start to the weekend global markets. stocks are down. let's check it out, stocks down and yields up, a repeat of monday, just less aggressive. on the nasdaq, we are down 0.4. small caps down by 0.9. tech is outperforming, then it got hammered, i can't keep up. every industry group was a negative territory at the close yesterday. the two-euro, 4.9 five. up another 45 basis points on the 10-year to 4.64. the front end of the curve, on the 10-year up more than 40 basis points, a repricin
coming up, looking ahead to fed chair jay powell's comments later this afternoon. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ (upbeat music) there's more to business than the business you're in. if you use data, that's the privacy business. manufacturing on demand? you're talking cloud business. got a few million hyper-connected customers? digital experience business. that was fast. that's where deloitte comes in. with the right combination of talent and technology to help advance and connect...
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coming up, fed chair jay powell will speak next hour at a stanford business school event. watch out for those comments. this is bloomberg. ♪ ed: fintech company r.i.m. financial announcing $85 million series c funding rent on the back of strong revenue growth. the comey provides credit platform programs to banks and large enterprises and says it is rapidly increasing its market share. let's break it down with brim financial ceo rasha katabi. good morning to you from new york city. what are you going to use the money for? rasha: we are focusing on our expansion and the robustness of our credit card platforms. we are really excited about this. thank you for having me on. caroline: interesting, you are building the business in canada and penetration into the u.s. and you will be redefining the credit card payment infrastructure landscape. for those not steeped in the world of fintech, what does that look like? rasha: we are seeing a lot of changes in the market with just the capping of the fees that was just announced in the u.s., which we think is really positive all aroun
coming up, fed chair jay powell will speak next hour at a stanford business school event. watch out for those comments. this is bloomberg. ♪ ed: fintech company r.i.m. financial announcing $85 million series c funding rent on the back of strong revenue growth. the comey provides credit platform programs to banks and large enterprises and says it is rapidly increasing its market share. let's break it down with brim financial ceo rasha katabi. good morning to you from new york city. what are...
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Apr 22, 2024
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what we heard from jay powell, higher for longer seems to be the new mantra. being weighed up by these fx markets. let's bring in an fx analyst at commerce bank. i want to start with the topline view on the dollar. we heard them saying there was no option at this point but to buy the greenback. do you agree with that view? >> i totally agree with that. it's hard to find any reasons to bet against the dollar. we have seen over the last few weeks after the inflation -- and on top of that, we have a hawkish fed so it's hard to imagine any reasons. >> how vulnerable is the euro within that context? further upside for the greenback and we have heard from ecb officials reiterating that they expect to go to the first cut in june. does that leave the euro vulnerable and how does that percolate through the exchange? >> the u.s. is one of the most vulnerable right now because we have a very dovish ecb which actually wants to cut back to back right now so they are talking about a few more rate cuts this year. on top of that, we have a disinflationary contest which is mak
what we heard from jay powell, higher for longer seems to be the new mantra. being weighed up by these fx markets. let's bring in an fx analyst at commerce bank. i want to start with the topline view on the dollar. we heard them saying there was no option at this point but to buy the greenback. do you agree with that view? >> i totally agree with that. it's hard to find any reasons to bet against the dollar. we have seen over the last few weeks after the inflation -- and on top of that,...
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Apr 16, 2024
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powell coming at 1:15 p.m. eastern time. the dollar, however, having its best run in a year today on prospect of higher rates as well as ongoing middle east tensions. with respect to the middle east tensions, we're not seeing brent continue that rally. in fact, it's a second down day here trading at $89.64. finally, we're keeping an eye on the treasury market with yields rising just slightly today. flirting with that potential 5% level that we last reached in december. and to that end, we look at bond and market implied volatility, and sebastian boyd has a great writeup about this, our m-live reporter and it's nearly as highest it's been since december. actually, i think it was january 3 is where we are in the same level. and he says part of this reason may be some comments we got from the fed vice chair phillip jefferson who talked about data dependence and said, quote, if incoming data suggests inflation is more persistent, that may mean hold is appropriate. so sebastian writes, if you see more data dependenc
powell coming at 1:15 p.m. eastern time. the dollar, however, having its best run in a year today on prospect of higher rates as well as ongoing middle east tensions. with respect to the middle east tensions, we're not seeing brent continue that rally. in fact, it's a second down day here trading at $89.64. finally, we're keeping an eye on the treasury market with yields rising just slightly today. flirting with that potential 5% level that we last reached in december. and to that end, we look...
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Apr 16, 2024
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waiting for jay powell and other officials as well, coming off fields that had -- yields that have highs, but we are hearing from mary daly who had previously, the federal reserve bank of san francisco president mary daly, a lack of urgency when it comes to the adjustment of rates for she's now speaking in a moderated q&a at the moment and talking about the need to be confident that inflation is going to 2%. the were saying the fed can do now is to act urgently. mary daly also saying economic growth had been quite remarkable, painting a picture of no urgency to adjust rates before it is necessary. new york fed president john williams says it will happen this year. he also discussed the resilience in consumer spending and the economy in an exclusive conversation with bloomberg tv. john: consumer spending has been strong. i think it is driven by strong fundamentals. job growth has been solid. we have seen real wage gain. we are in a good economy with good growth. yes, it is part of that story, but, you know, i think what we are realizing is we are getting a nice tailwind from the supply si
waiting for jay powell and other officials as well, coming off fields that had -- yields that have highs, but we are hearing from mary daly who had previously, the federal reserve bank of san francisco president mary daly, a lack of urgency when it comes to the adjustment of rates for she's now speaking in a moderated q&a at the moment and talking about the need to be confident that inflation is going to 2%. the were saying the fed can do now is to act urgently. mary daly also saying...
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Apr 4, 2024
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most importantly you see jay powell signaling they will standby rate cuts if we see this inflation pressure go back down to 2%. 10 reacts on the back of that. 4.34%. if -- copper is up .9%. i like what is happening with the commodities. this is the concern when it comes to inflation pressures. copper is powering higher and gold is at record highs. let's look at the world of crypto. we are managing to see risk on there. what have you got on the micro? ed: a lot of news to get through. apple we will do later in the show. the next big thing is a robot that follows you around the house. a lot of stories about alphabet. reuters reporting they've engaged their advisors to look at five spot which is interesting. a budget of salesforce stop -- a budget salesforce. caroline: that is disrespectful. a small business. ed: a small business version. engineers are working on a premium subscription based ai powered search. the stock is down 1%. there a lot of questions. meta is getting an upgrade. nvidia is up. things are looking better in taiwan. those are the single names we are watching. caroline: will
most importantly you see jay powell signaling they will standby rate cuts if we see this inflation pressure go back down to 2%. 10 reacts on the back of that. 4.34%. if -- copper is up .9%. i like what is happening with the commodities. this is the concern when it comes to inflation pressures. copper is powering higher and gold is at record highs. let's look at the world of crypto. we are managing to see risk on there. what have you got on the micro? ed: a lot of news to get through. apple we...
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Apr 5, 2024
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but what jay powell says for now is it is a bump in the disinflation path. while oil prices are, it is a little bit of a concern where inflation could go from here. my sense is that oil prices are a little bit of a less concern for the u.s. economy and they could obviously shift focus more towards core inflation to kind of ward off those risks. the real threat for the u.s. inflation is actually coming from the housing side. that's something that needs to be watched but i would not be concerned about not getting rate cuts this year as of now, because neel kashkari does not vote and he is a known uber hawk. haslinda: he has been wrong before. charu: the whole dot plot has been wrong before so it's hard to see where it leads to. but right now, the whole outcome of this disparity in commentary that's coming out of the fed is that there is really no consensus. it goes back down to the fact that data is all over the place. so we are just continuing to be data-dependent. haslinda: you are not concerned about oil prices. why not? bearing in mind it was oil prices th
but what jay powell says for now is it is a bump in the disinflation path. while oil prices are, it is a little bit of a concern where inflation could go from here. my sense is that oil prices are a little bit of a less concern for the u.s. economy and they could obviously shift focus more towards core inflation to kind of ward off those risks. the real threat for the u.s. inflation is actually coming from the housing side. that's something that needs to be watched but i would not be concerned...
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Apr 26, 2024
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michael: not much for the fed meeting except it will shape what jay powell says in his news conference as he tries to give the markets a picture of what they may do. it will basically be on hold at this point. we do know that the markets have now priced november back in. why? i don't know, but november is now seen as the first month for rate cuts. yesterday it went to december. the aspect of the thing is the political aspect. this is 2024, presidential election year. if people aren't feeling good about the economy, what is it mean for the election? that is a question we will be asking for some time. the white is democrats and the yellow is republicans. that just flips no matter whether republicans are in or democrats are in. if you like the party you will think the economy is good. the blue line is what matters, independents. how do they see the economy going forward? that is something we can keep an eye on with the michigan survey. katie: i'm sure we will be talking about it with you a lot leading up to november. mike mckee, thank you so much. let's check on big tech earnings. microso
michael: not much for the fed meeting except it will shape what jay powell says in his news conference as he tries to give the markets a picture of what they may do. it will basically be on hold at this point. we do know that the markets have now priced november back in. why? i don't know, but november is now seen as the first month for rate cuts. yesterday it went to december. the aspect of the thing is the political aspect. this is 2024, presidential election year. if people aren't feeling...
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Apr 3, 2024
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. >> do you expect anything from jay powell different today given we had an upside surprise in adp? there are smaller data points he could talk to that we did not have friday. >> they are in the labor area and he has not been concerned about the labor market. he's been talking about a stronger labor market is one of the reasons why the fed might stay on hold longer so this reinforces his message. the only thing he's said about the labor market is, if it collapses, we would consider cutting, but that does not appear to be likely at this point. >> mike mckee breaking down the economic data. yields creeping higher on the long end and front end of the curve. work your way further out along the curve, a 10 year maturity just short of 4.40%, yields higher by three or four basis points. the 30 year up by three or four basis points. steven wieting of citi still with us. let's talk about the jobs data we got and the data we got earlier this week. this is bringing up the right question. what data should we be dependent on and should not be? how much weight would you put on manufacturing? >> i
. >> do you expect anything from jay powell different today given we had an upside surprise in adp? there are smaller data points he could talk to that we did not have friday. >> they are in the labor area and he has not been concerned about the labor market. he's been talking about a stronger labor market is one of the reasons why the fed might stay on hold longer so this reinforces his message. the only thing he's said about the labor market is, if it collapses, we would consider...
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Apr 24, 2024
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they will be looking at jay powell. no one is expecting him to do anything new on policy. they will be looking at the news conference. everybody looked at december. a dovish stance. i'm not sure i see as much of that. now there is thinking that maybe they pivoted the other way. i'm not sure they will see it that way. jonathan: thank you. it is like staring at the sun. positive by one third of 1%. do not stare into the sun. as nowadays said? do not stare at the sunshine? lisa: i wanted to go over to the people wearing two pairs of sunglasses and say, no. jonathan: all the attention on the dollar-yen, briefly breaking. the dollar-yen. we have gone through so many numbers. why is this one anymore important? lisa: you are camping up the pressure and raising the question of come if they are not going to intervene here, than what is next? what do they worry about? that is really the question. at what point is it taken off the table? jonathan: maybe now is not the time? when the liquidity is low and you want more bang for your buck. go through those numbers. mike: seven point $5
they will be looking at jay powell. no one is expecting him to do anything new on policy. they will be looking at the news conference. everybody looked at december. a dovish stance. i'm not sure i see as much of that. now there is thinking that maybe they pivoted the other way. i'm not sure they will see it that way. jonathan: thank you. it is like staring at the sun. positive by one third of 1%. do not stare into the sun. as nowadays said? do not stare at the sunshine? lisa: i wanted to go...
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Apr 11, 2024
04/24
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jay powell wants to achieve consensus. it can convince the committee of something he doesn't do on average -- that they don't on average want to believe. i'd be happy enough if they started to cut rates in june but i think this means they will. >> bond yields soaring on the heels of another health cpi print with investors excepting the first rate cut to come in september. if the fed needs more convincing, running up against the optics of cutting rates and meet me after the presidential election. we are not willing to take a september 1 cut off the table but it would require a sharp rush to justify the pondering is september departure point. good morning to you. starting at 8:30 yesterday let's pretend this just dropped. if we were a few basis points around .4 prayed how different would our conversation be this morning. >> if we had seen a .3 print is that of a .4 we would be looking at the data and might be parsing through some of the details but we would be thinking the fed headed right to assume january was just a bump o
jay powell wants to achieve consensus. it can convince the committee of something he doesn't do on average -- that they don't on average want to believe. i'd be happy enough if they started to cut rates in june but i think this means they will. >> bond yields soaring on the heels of another health cpi print with investors excepting the first rate cut to come in september. if the fed needs more convincing, running up against the optics of cutting rates and meet me after the presidential...