stocks take a dip... how traders are reacting to a slide in this market. in today's cover story....checking out a blockbuster ipo with a very famous name... plus.... a new investigation is launched into health care dot gov... and.... hollywood sets up to surprise this weekend first business starts now! you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. good morning! it's thursday, december 12th. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: stocks struggle ahead of the fed meeting next week...as traders worry it's almost taper time.. the dow took a hit falling 129 points, the nasdaq dropped 56 and the s&p lost 21 points ending the session below 1,800. gold was lower by 8 dollars and oil off by $1.10. a

federal judge rules general motors is not required to pay $450 million to cover medical benefits for its retirees. the car company had a contract to make the payment 2 years before gm went bankrupt. it is considered a defeat for the autoworkers union. and, fidelity is allowing investors to place bitcoins in their iras. it's the largest investment firm to go the virtual route-- so far. no one loves a selloff more than todd horwitz of average joe options. good morning dr. doom and gloom. how are you today? > >good morning angie. how are you doing? > >i'm doing well. stocks were dropping yesterday. did that play right into your hands? > >really, i'm watching a couple of levels. i think that you gotta look for 1770 on the downside of the s &p. 1790 was my first level and i think you look at 1810. but really until

next wednesday when the fed actually announces i think we're actually just going to trade in these ranges but i did think that we were going to work our way lower but it is quiet. > >it is quiet and people are concerned about that fed meeting next week. what's going on with interest rates. what are we likely to see from the treasury market? > >i think the interest rate market is saying we're big enough to handle the $85 billion a month and we want interest rates to go higher. so the treasuries have been selling off. although we had a rally on monday and tuesday the treasuries are selling off and interest rates are going higher. however i do no believe the fed is going to taper. i do not believe they will be able to taper for at least 6 months. > >we have some interesting ipo's including the hilton ipo happening. what's your thought on the market for ipo's? > >when you start getting all of these ipo's coming into the market again means that people are getting a little greedy. it means that there is a lot of money around. and it means that we're probably near the top of the market which is another

sign that i look at that the markets are peaking. ipo's and overextension of ipo's is always a problem in my opinion. > >thank you todd. > >thank you. diane moca joins us this morning... more on the debut of hilton's new stock. good morning diane. good morning angie! hilton stock priced at 20 dollars per share! analysts call it perfect time for the ipo -- with the hotel market riding a wave of rising demand. but is the right time for investors to check-in? that depends on who you ask. "it's an ipo that's a strong buy for me." trader chris gersch of altimus capitol says he'll be picking up hilton stock for his kids' personal portfolio... and adds that today's ipo should "not" be compared to other highly- anticipated ipos that fell flat.. namely-- facebook. "a name such as hilton is so revered, there will always be demand." parent company blackstone group took the hotel chain private in 2008. though it's returning to public trading today under the ticker symbol "hlt" on the new york stock exchange... blackstone will retain about 76 percent of the company. chad

mollman of morningstar offers this warning to every day investors... "we think the stock is overvalued at 20%. this would have to pull back to $10 a share." josef schuster also recommends investors hold off. his company tracks ipo performance through its ipox 100 index... and says ipo average is up around 41 percent year to date. "i think hilton will really have the best upside in two or three years. i don't think it will have an immediate upside." he blames the "number" of shares blackstone is offering... which is 117 million... double the original amount according to morningstar. "i think it's a big red flag that the size of the offering was increased."

schuster says the best value for investors will be after blackstone releases more shares in a few years. "it's a very large deal, a debt deal, no proceeds go to grow the company. it's just a deal for private equity to turn around and liquidate some of the holdings." the hilton ipo was originally scheduled for friday... but analysts say high demand bumped it up a day. it's expected to close on december 17th. it's the second day of trading for valero energy partners. shares of the oil pipeline climbed 22 percent to 27.98 in its first day as a publicly traded company. a vote could happen tonight on the new budget out of washington. budget chairs-- republican paul ryan and democrat patty murray have the framework for a deal. it calls for $85 billion dollars in spending cuts-- such as reduced pensions for government workers and revenue from new fees-- including higher airline service charges. there's

plenty of controversy already. the ceo of delta is concerned about how the airline fees will effect potential passengers, tea party members argue the budget is not pro-growth. and jp morgan ceo jamie dimon is thanking congress for pounding out an agreement rather than shutting down the government. the senate is expected to vote next week. president obama plans to sign off on the deal. new enrollment numbers reveal more activity on health care dot gov. "now as more americans give health care dot gov a second look they are finding the experience is night and day compared to where we were back in october. and they are responding by shopping for plans and enrolling in greater numbers." that is health and human services secretary kathleen sebelius, who was on capitol hill yesterday for another round of testimony on the government health exchanges. she says a total of 364 thousand people have enrolled on the federal health exchange website as of the end of november. 227 thousand have signed up on state run websites in 14 states, and 137 thousand on healthcare-dot-gov.

the numbers are less than the administration's expectations, but are higher since the website outages that required a technical fix. sebelius says she has ordered an internal review of the health care website. the captain of asiana flight 214 tells nvestigators the situation was "very stressful" just before the boeing jet slammed into the runway at san francisco internaitonal airport. the national transportation safety board listened to the testimony yesterday at a one day hearing in dc. including comments from the a former chief pilot of the boeing triple seven and the final moments of approach recorded onboard. about 11 seconds pior to impact an audible alert consistent with the low speed caution was recorded.-- and a verbal call to go around but the action was too late and the main gear and underside of fuselage struck the seawall. the pilot has the final authority in the operation we try not to put in design element that can override the pilot. lee kang kuk the jet's pilot expressed regret for the 3 people killed and other injured in the crash. he also mentioned he was not confident about operating the 777's automated flight system

prior to the landing. it's decision time for boeing. the jet maker is now sifting through proposals from states attempting to bid for the contract to build its new 7-7- 7-x jet. deadline day was tuesday. at least six states outside of washington reportedly submitted proposals. production was uprooted from washington, where boeing and its union clashed. boeing will make a decision by the end of the year. also, reports say polish airline "lot" will receive 32 million dollars in payback from boeing for costs related to its flawed 787 dreamliner jets. the fda is moving toward phasing out antibiotics given to animals processed for meat. cattle, hog and poultry farmers give animals antibiotics regularly to ensure the animals are healthy. however, the use can can spur drug-resistant illnesses in humans. the agency is now asking pharmaceutical companies to voluntarily stop labeling drugs used for treating human infection as acceptable for animals. monsanto is digging into a growing market. the company is working with a danish biotech company to create an organism

that assists in crop growth. monsanto has made a name for itself by selling genetically modified crop seeds that some critics argue pose long-term health effects. health officials contend the crops are safe. now -- monsanto is tapping into the growing market for the organisms.. called "microbes".. which are added to soil to help plants easily absorb nutrients. sales of the organisms are expected to grow this year by over 14%. the future is looking brighter for the solar panel industry. solar panel installations on homes and businesses are up 20% this year. and the solar energy industries assocation expectes growth of around 30% next year. investors are benefiting from the rise in sales -- solar city stock is up 335% year to date. sunpower shares have rallied more than 400%. profits are building at home depot as more americans fix up their houses. home depot expects to meet its financial goals a year early. the retailer was targeting a 24% return of invested capital by 2015. instead it will happen by the end of the 2014 fiscal year. the company...popular with the

do-it-yourself crowd...also plans to open 8 new stores next year. it's not a pretty picture at avon. the cosmetics company will lay off 650 employees, and end a computerized management system. the technology makeover, launched in 2009, was meant to help sales reps better connect with the company. however, glitches led to a drop in sales in canada. avon shares fell more than 4% yesterday. turning now to retail earnings...costco delivered a miss in its first quarter earnings report, as sales took a hit, and the chain cited higher operating expenses. the stock tumbled over one percent on wall street yesterday. at mens warehouse, sales picked up, but the suit maker says profits are down. its currently the takeover target of rival joseph a bank. the stock fell nearly two percent...closing above 50 dollars.

jp morgan chase reportedly filed for a patent on a computertized payment system that is similar to the bitcoin. the financial times reports...the bank is attempting to capitalize on the quickly expanding area of mobile and online payments. jp morgan's system of virtual cash resembles the bitcoin system with an online wallet. mail delivery is on its way out in canada. canada's post office will phase out door to door mail service in urban areas over the next five years. eight thousand postal employees will lose their jobs in the transition. "super mailboxes" will act as community mailboxes. the cost of canadian stamps is also getting steep at a dollar a piece, starting at the end of march. discovery communications is rumored to be doing some "channel surfing" shares of scripps networks rallied 5 dollar yesterday... on a report by variety that discovery is exploring a bid for scrips which own hg-tv and the food network. it would give discovery which own the animal planet and tlc a market cap of $34 billion

dollar. spotify has inked a deal with legendary rock and roll group led zeppelin. spotify...which competes directly with pandora -- is the first music streaming company to ever nab the rights to the band's music. competition is getting fierce for music subscription services. apple recently launched its own online streaming service... and one from youtube is reportedly on the way. still to come: could a stock split send mastercard shares soaring? plus.... star studded investment... is now a good time to throw your money into movies? but first....tracking credit card use. why it's signaling something larger about the global economy. that's next with bill moller.

the world runs on credit. so, with the economy improving on most fronts, what does credit in its various forms look like in 2014? the credit management and reporting bureau transunion just today released its consumer credit forecast. steve chaouki is a group vice president in transunion's financial services business unit. so out there in the misty future, what does transunion see for credit? > >things look generally positive. if you look at credit cards, we expect credit card delinquencies to remain near all time lows, where they have been for the last 2 years. and mortgage delinquencies continue to drop well off their highs but still well above historic averages. > >let's talk about credit cards. what is the average

debt? have you calculated that? > >so, we expect the average debt this year---credit card debt---at just under 5400 dollars per consumer. which is still over $400 below historic highs. and a very manageable number in our opinion. > >when we talk about improvement in fewer delinquencies and more manageable debt levels, is it simply because of the economy improving? > >a lot of it in credit cards is because the economy has improved, the unemployment rate has come down. but you also have tighter underwriting through the recession. so there are fewer subprime borrowers getting credit cards today than there were back in 2007 for example. > >also i think that consumers have learned from their past bad habits and they're managing their own money with more prudence. > >that's right. when we talk about credit card balances coming down, a lot of that is by consumer choice. many of the

consumers are choosing to pay down their credit cards or have chosen to pay down their credit cards over the recession cycle and are now in a position of lower overall credit card debt as a result. > >on the mortgage side, there's improvement there as well. what does that say about the housing industry? > >i think the housing market is generally recovering. you can see that across a variety of metrics. delinquency is one of them. we expect delinquency to end up around 3.75% at the end of this nect year. while that's well above the 1.75% which is a historic norm, it's way off the high of almost 7%. > >not too many years ago. > >yes, just a few years ago. > >more evidence that the economy is in fact improving. steve, thanks so much. > >thank you. thank you bill! coming up in chart talk...should you buy mastercard stock before or after the split find in chart talk. and next our critic's take on a recent hollywood tragedy, that's next in movies and money.

we have much to get to in today's movies and money... there's an ipo from a movie theater , a new installment of the hobbit, and tyler perry is back in a frock for christmas. our movie man covers it all in this movies and money segment. good to have you back on the show. > >thank you. > >well, coming out this weekend tyler perry has his new movie, a madea christmas. and the new hobbit the desolation of

smaug also coming out.what do you think? will tyler perry be a contender here? > >i don't think he's going to approach the numbers that the hobbit is going to put up this weekend but at the same time i think this could be tyler perry's highest grossing movie. we've seen in the past if we put him in a dress that his grosses go up. and it's holiday time, it's christmas. we saw that the best man holiday just had a healthy time at the box office. i think this is going to be his most successful film to date. it might even hit $100 million > >disney has been doing very nicely at the box office. here's what happened last week. frozen coming in at number 1 followed by the hunger games, out of the furnace, thor: the dark world, and delivery man. so what do you think about this frozen phenomenon? > >apparently it's really connecting with young girls. everything i hear from people that have children they say that their daughters love the film. i'm a little so-so on it but i'm not a little girl. it's at $200 million dollars worldwide now. it's going to continue to do very well. disney's had one heck of a year.

> >i also want to mention that saving mr. banks will be coming out in a very limited--- > >yes, like 13 theaters this weekend. it will be expanding natiowide starting next week. i think that's going to do very healthy at the box office for the adults in the audience. > >you've seen this one? > >i have and i like it very much. > >what do you like about it? > >well, i like the story. it's a little darker than i thought it was. i'm always interested in movies that are about the moviemaking, the creative process and this is all about the making of mary poppins and where that creativity came from---not just the movie but the original book. i think emma thompson and tom hanks are both very good in the movie. > >we're hearing a lot about ipo's these days and amc theaters is coming out and giving moviegoers a shot first at buying the stock. what do you think about this? > >i think you have to have their amc stubs, their reward program first. it's not my favorite reward program. you have to spend $100 to get a $10 reward. i prefer my local cinema, classic cinemas. you get better popcorn there anyway.

i don't know if moviegoers are really gonna be interested in buying a stock because they have the rewards program...but it's something. > >would you buy the stock? > >no. > >oh, ok. alright, there you have it on that one. we would be remiss if we didn't mention fast and furious and the unfortunate death of paul walker. what are you hearing about this eric? > >there are some interesting stories coming out. fox moved up their planet of the apes sequel to the date that fast and the furious 7 was scheduled to come out. it's kind of a premature gesture because universal said that they are delaying the production of it, rewriting some stuff hopefully to maybe give paul walker's character a more graceful exit from the series. but they haven't moved entirely off that date. so right now you have these two movies that are kind of sticking there and fox may be forced to actually move the planet of the apes sequel back because there is no guarantee that universal is not going to steam forward and make that production date. > >you'll keep us up to date. thank you erik. just ahead will a move to the s&p make more people like faceboook. chart talk is next.

it could be the end of the run to $1000 for mastercard. that stock is headed for a split. matt cavanaugh of cmz trading joins us. good morning matt. > >good morning. > >this stock is getting a lift from the split already. would you want to own this stock at this current level? > >i think the stock has had a great run. it's up about 60% for the year. they did a few other things, raising their dividend again and also annoucing a stock buyback. but i think a majority of the good news is out here. the fourth quarter is typically weak for them. earnings come out in january. so i think with all this good news maybe wait and see if we can get a bit of a selloff before we jump in. > >the split will bring the stock down to $80. would that be an entry point? > >i would like to see it selloff a little bit more. i think 65 would be about my entry point. like i said, a lot of the great headlines are out here. people like to see dividend increases. people like to see stock buybacks. but the

stock is a little bit pricey here and the dividend is still sub 1%. so like i said, a little bit of a selloff--great company, great brand. gotta buy it when it's on sale. > >we are also learning that facebook is set to join the s &p 500. would you buy this stock? > >that's a tricky one. it's had such a good run and people are really fickle with some of these technology stocks so i think that it has a little bit of support here now that you have fund managers waiting to buy it but personally on my account, i'm gonna wait until it sells off again. > >thank you matt and have a great trading day. > >thank you. that wraps up the show for today. coming up tomorrow... as the michigan state spartans take on standford at the rosebowl-- ticket prices are through the roof. is it because the spartans are so awesome or-- because wealth is on the rise? find out friday. from all of us at first business, have a great thursday!

>> the following is a paid presentation for supersmile, brought to you by guthy-renker. none of the testimonials or dentists in this show have been paid to share their opinions. >> a bright and healthy smile can be your biggest beauty asset. it's one of the first things people notice about you. but if you're embarrassed by your smile because of your stained, discolored, dull teeth, it's hard to feel good about yourself. now you can turn back the clock on your teeth and safely get a naturally whiter, brighter, sexier smile thanks to an astonishing new teeth whitening system. it's time to turn yomi