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>> he still needs to be paul volcker. we have not licked inflation and inflation hits everybody. as you were saying earlier you raise interest rates it hits borrowers and certain segments of borrowers, they're subject to variable rates. inflation hits everybody. main street is hurting. they need to stay focused on taming it. i hope he can reequates himself to paul volcker side of his personality. charles: i hope so too. sheila, you're fantastic. thank you very much appreciate it. >> thanks for having me. charles: we're only minutes away from the jay powell presser. i want to bring back danielle dimartino booth and introduce main street asset management erin gibbs. erin, get your comment on sheila bair's comments. if we allow rates to go higher, forget about zero interest rates stuff, it would be better for society. would wall street go nuts with the notion of no free money? >> i think we're finally coming to grips with that. there is still a lot of projections say the risk-free rate, the normal rate should be 2 1/2, 2.7, fed is for 5.25 to 5.5. i think getting to the idea maybe t
>> he still needs to be paul volcker. we have not licked inflation and inflation hits everybody. as you were saying earlier you raise interest rates it hits borrowers and certain segments of borrowers, they're subject to variable rates. inflation hits everybody. main street is hurting. they need to stay focused on taming it. i hope he can reequates himself to paul volcker side of his personality. charles: i hope so too. sheila, you're fantastic. thank you very much appreciate it. >>...
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May 5, 2024
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paul volcker, the chairman of the federal reserve board, has been implementing policies that are exactly opposite in basic thrust from what you recommend. he has been squeezing the productive sector of the economy in favor of the speculative sector. now, i mean, frankly, mr. president, there are important sections of the american economy that are about to go under and won't even have an opportunity to benefit from the programs that you're putting forward, because of the federal reserve's policy. i have a two part question. first of all, do you think that objective economic conditions justify the interest rate levels that we now have? and i don't mean for your answer to imply criticism of the fed. it's just objective question. and the second question is, are you concerned that there might be a sabotage, so to speak, of your policies by programs that the federal reserve might be putting forward? no, i'm not concerned that there would be sabotage. i've met with mr. volcker and not with the intention of trying to dictate, because it is an independent agency, and i respect that. but i think t
paul volcker, the chairman of the federal reserve board, has been implementing policies that are exactly opposite in basic thrust from what you recommend. he has been squeezing the productive sector of the economy in favor of the speculative sector. now, i mean, frankly, mr. president, there are important sections of the american economy that are about to go under and won't even have an opportunity to benefit from the programs that you're putting forward, because of the federal reserve's...
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May 28, 2024
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it was the tail end of this long process of disinflation that started with paul volcker. it may be we are going back to a more normal period with real rates that are positive. i will be good in some ways. it will reduce the risks of these speculative bubbles. that will cause some major readjustments because people have largely been investing on the assumption we are going to go back to zero real rates. right now we just don't know. once everybody -- the inflation is done, we are going to be steady as you go, we don't know what fed fund rate minus the inflation rate, we don't know whether that number is going to be. annabelle: i suppose that goes to the longer-term structural nature of what these price pressures look like. do you think there is a sense as long as the fed stays higher for longer they are sucking capital away from other markets, from emerging markets? paul: i think that is probably not the right way to think about it. the fed -- the thing they need to be most clear about they have not been clear about is how fast do we want inflation to come down. if we stip
it was the tail end of this long process of disinflation that started with paul volcker. it may be we are going back to a more normal period with real rates that are positive. i will be good in some ways. it will reduce the risks of these speculative bubbles. that will cause some major readjustments because people have largely been investing on the assumption we are going to go back to zero real rates. right now we just don't know. once everybody -- the inflation is done, we are going to be...
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he brought out his inner paul volcker. he is determined it looks like. don't look know, reddit, reddit may save the ipo market. my take how unfair things have been, finally how you have run out of money. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪. charles: you can still feel the anxiety in the air, i know you can, right? this is the thing. this is the pandemic index, panic index, rather. this is the month of april. it erupted right? because listen we were down for the first time in a little while, like since last october. first time a lot of investors have faired any adversity, a lot of people headed for the hills. here's the then though. we have come down very dramatically since then but still, you can testimony again, there is a fair amount, let's call it fear. the fear and greed gauge. this thing has been stuck in fear for a long time. even after we had the big strong days, right? we had four or five days up pretty nicely. we've been in the fear gauge for sometime now. you got to wonder what is going on here. i don't necessarily think it is fear
he brought out his inner paul volcker. he is determined it looks like. don't look know, reddit, reddit may save the ipo market. my take how unfair things have been, finally how you have run out of money. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪. charles: you can still feel the anxiety in the air, i know you can, right? this is the thing. this is the pandemic index, panic index, rather. this is the month of april. it erupted right? because listen we were down for the first time...
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someone said he sounded like the reincarnation of paul volcker. neel kashkari. >> neel kashkari. >> i'm out of here man, see you later. charles: he swings, it is really hard, at some point it feels like we cannot necessarily ignore that because coming into this rate hiking cycle jay powell more or less said i'm not going to be arthur burns. which not only means i will not cut too soon but i will not fall asleep at the wheel, if inflation is there we will seize it, we will attack it. >> jay powell is being arthur burns right now. there is no ifs, ands or you buts. inflation remained above trend. think about leading indicators of inflation, labor costs are moving in deleterious manner when it comes to inflation outlook. charles: policy? >> policy is getting very interesting. for most of this bull run we've seen since late october we've seen monetary and fiscal policy rowing the boat in the same direction. we now have monetary policy continuing to go down the awkward dovish path, ignoring all the inflation data. treasury financing policy. gotten more
someone said he sounded like the reincarnation of paul volcker. neel kashkari. >> neel kashkari. >> i'm out of here man, see you later. charles: he swings, it is really hard, at some point it feels like we cannot necessarily ignore that because coming into this rate hiking cycle jay powell more or less said i'm not going to be arthur burns. which not only means i will not cut too soon but i will not fall asleep at the wheel, if inflation is there we will seize it, we will attack it....
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May 6, 2024
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that would be abandoning, you know, all the, you know, we've canonized paul volcker and what happened back then. they want two. they're not -- steve, would they go to 2.5? i don't even think they'd go to 2.5. >> you mean in terms of their target? >> yeah. goal post moving. >> i don't think so. but i want to speak on the other side of this, which i look at the numbers and where the fed is, joe, and i have very -- it's very hard for me to believe the fed is not restrictive and that these rates are going to pull down inflation, either it works or the whole thing doesn't work at all, and i think it does work, and i think if you came into this with a -- you know, i don't know what you think the neutral rate is, 2% or whatever, and i think the fed believes that. i think powell believes that, and i think that the issue is one of -- more of time than level. if you think about it, the fed only hit the peak funds rate around july, so give it a year. coming up this summer -- and i do think there is some -- as i just reported, a little incipient weakness in the data that bears watching here that
that would be abandoning, you know, all the, you know, we've canonized paul volcker and what happened back then. they want two. they're not -- steve, would they go to 2.5? i don't even think they'd go to 2.5. >> you mean in terms of their target? >> yeah. goal post moving. >> i don't think so. but i want to speak on the other side of this, which i look at the numbers and where the fed is, joe, and i have very -- it's very hard for me to believe the fed is not restrictive and...
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May 3, 2024
05/24
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even carter, who is thought to have had a failed presidency, nominated paul volcker at the fed. treasury secretary's have generally been people who are peers and can advise presidents. this president has staff, literally. a lot of the former staff are now in positions of serious authority. this means that you don't have anyone to give you a bs detector, and bs detectors are very important in politics and in business. biden right now doesn't have that, never has had. jonathan: next time we will talk to you before we talk to ken, i promise. terry haines. priya, you touched on this. some people believe we cannot cut in september. september 2012 before an election, why can't we cut in september? priya: they have a mandate trying to keep the soft landing going which is why they're telling us that hikes are off the table. before september i think that a few things have to happen. wages have to decelerate, you have to have the next couple of cpi prints becoming weaker than the last three, and signs that growth is slowing. at that point, he said 4.23 on the unemployment rate. the fed lo
even carter, who is thought to have had a failed presidency, nominated paul volcker at the fed. treasury secretary's have generally been people who are peers and can advise presidents. this president has staff, literally. a lot of the former staff are now in positions of serious authority. this means that you don't have anyone to give you a bs detector, and bs detectors are very important in politics and in business. biden right now doesn't have that, never has had. jonathan: next time we will...