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powell and the fomc were making very dovish signals. the markets boomed because everybody thought interest rates will go down. yaw, take down interest rates on safe assets, move into higher risk assets the bread and butter of wall street, they would like to see all the money taken out of the safe government money market funds and put them in the stock market, crypto, whatever crazy thing. i'm describing, i'm not judging. charles: sure. >> that's what's going on. that's the dynamic. yeah, the right monetary policy, accommodative monetary policy is much more beneficial to wall street than it is to main street. charles: everyone is licking their chops where that six trillion dollars is going to go. we know jay powell is his own man over the last couple years he has been compared to arthur burns, been compared to paul volcker, been compared to alan greenspan and been compared to ben bern knee. which persona might work best as inflation is sticky and stubborn? if you had to use one of these playbooks which one would it be? >> he still needs
powell and the fomc were making very dovish signals. the markets boomed because everybody thought interest rates will go down. yaw, take down interest rates on safe assets, move into higher risk assets the bread and butter of wall street, they would like to see all the money taken out of the safe government money market funds and put them in the stock market, crypto, whatever crazy thing. i'm describing, i'm not judging. charles: sure. >> that's what's going on. that's the dynamic. yeah,...
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May 2, 2024
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what risks does a period of more sustainable trajectories present for the fomc? chair powell: i think that may happen. we all serve domestic mandates, so i think the difference between the united states under other countries that are now considering rate cuts is they are just not having the kind of growth that we are having. there were inflation is performing about like ours or may be better, but they are not experiencing the kind of growth that we are experiencing, so we actually have the luxury of having strong labor market, low unemployment, high job creation and all of that, and we can be patient and will be careful and cautious as we approach the decision to cut rates. in terms of the implications, i think market see it coming. it is priced in noun -- in now, so markets and economies can adapt to it. in emerging markets we have not seen the kind of turmoil that was more frequent 20 years ago, 30 years ago, and that is partly because emerging market countries have much more credibility on inflation, so they are navigating it pretty well this time. reporter: t
what risks does a period of more sustainable trajectories present for the fomc? chair powell: i think that may happen. we all serve domestic mandates, so i think the difference between the united states under other countries that are now considering rate cuts is they are just not having the kind of growth that we are having. there were inflation is performing about like ours or may be better, but they are not experiencing the kind of growth that we are experiencing, so we actually have the...
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right now the post-fomc rally continues but something feels odd, right? earnings beats are often greeted with big-time selling. just take a look at disney today. the street still sees fewer rate cuts than the dot plot. historic rates are above average. we kick it off with alli mccartney and darius dale. americans are unhappy with joe biden and jay powell. many have given up hope. maybe giant government is not a good thing after all. brian wesbury will give his take. darrell caulk kins why the jobs report hit the jack bottom. my take on not giving up on your pursuit of happiness. all that and so much more on "making money". ♪. charles: all right, so we opened under some pressure after the best three days for the markets since last november. now interestingly over that same period as the market was coming up pessimism was moving in the wrong direction. almost all the different pessimists and gauges we see moved further toward pessimism, everything. even the average here. so it really is kind of interesting. a lot of folks were feeling more pessimistic, ev
right now the post-fomc rally continues but something feels odd, right? earnings beats are often greeted with big-time selling. just take a look at disney today. the street still sees fewer rate cuts than the dot plot. historic rates are above average. we kick it off with alli mccartney and darius dale. americans are unhappy with joe biden and jay powell. many have given up hope. maybe giant government is not a good thing after all. brian wesbury will give his take. darrell caulk kins why the...
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May 2, 2024
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i we are perceiving it to be based on camino casing from fomc -- communication from lisa: lisa: fomc? your confusion reflects that of quantitative easing on the market. people have been trying to make this mystery makes sense but it is the reason why you haven't seen liquidity draining from the system. it hasn't shrunk consistently enough. jonathan: we will get a ton of fed speak for the next two days. do you think that chairman powell represents consensus on the committee, or do you expect to see differences in the days to come? kristina: we have seen a lot more divergence in fed speak and powell has positioned himself as one of the more dovish members. even yesterday you were talking a lot about looking for a hawkish fed. but we already moved that way. we had taken it out and there was nothing hawkish about the message. saying that this was the day for mark to market and i think that the speak we get going forward from other members will be a little bit more hawkish than that. jonathan: kristina, thank you. they are from invesco. hawkish relative to what? from the last meeting? kind
i we are perceiving it to be based on camino casing from fomc -- communication from lisa: lisa: fomc? your confusion reflects that of quantitative easing on the market. people have been trying to make this mystery makes sense but it is the reason why you haven't seen liquidity draining from the system. it hasn't shrunk consistently enough. jonathan: we will get a ton of fed speak for the next two days. do you think that chairman powell represents consensus on the committee, or do you expect to...
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May 2, 2024
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that's what we got clarity on at this fomc meeting. powell was very clear that they see the data still as being comfortable and collaborating with their view. it is just taking a little bit longer. at j.p. morgan still have the first cut coming in july and we have cuts thereafter into 2025. so from a bond yield perspective, yes, we do think it will drift higher depending on the fed view a little bit. if you look into 2024 and into 2025, we do see room for bond yields to decline as well. bringing us to the equity market . the way we try to figure this out is try to understand from market pricing what sort of scenarios the market is entertaining and pricing in. and since the pivot in november, we have seen significant goldilocks pricing from november all the way until march. and since then we have seen two scenarios emerge simultaneously. those are firstly, a higher for longer -- a reemergence of higher for longer. and secondly is the increasing probability of some sort of an ai bubble. these two things are somewhat inconsistent with eac
that's what we got clarity on at this fomc meeting. powell was very clear that they see the data still as being comfortable and collaborating with their view. it is just taking a little bit longer. at j.p. morgan still have the first cut coming in july and we have cuts thereafter into 2025. so from a bond yield perspective, yes, we do think it will drift higher depending on the fed view a little bit. if you look into 2024 and into 2025, we do see room for bond yields to decline as well....
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May 23, 2024
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there was a concern from investors at the relative hawkishness around the fomc minutes. the point that many officials apparently had been questioning whether or not rates were in restrictive territory to get to the 2% target. u.s. tenure at four 42 after yields on the front end, the two year edge higher. down in focus, volatility coming through from the pound. there's also the factor on the boe and great expectations being pushed back on that higher than expected cpi print yesterday. brent, $81 a barrel. oil down. copper also taking a hit for the third day in a row down 10,000 330. let's get to u.k. politics. that surprise summer general election being called for the u.k. rishi sunak making the announcement on downing street in hopes that voters will give him credit for what is a relatively right economy. a full six months earlier is then officially required. the global business columnist for bloomberg opinion who has been writing about this. adrian, your take on this decision by rishi sunak to go with july the fourth, rather than waiting. >> a very surprising decision.
there was a concern from investors at the relative hawkishness around the fomc minutes. the point that many officials apparently had been questioning whether or not rates were in restrictive territory to get to the 2% target. u.s. tenure at four 42 after yields on the front end, the two year edge higher. down in focus, volatility coming through from the pound. there's also the factor on the boe and great expectations being pushed back on that higher than expected cpi print yesterday. brent, $81...
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May 8, 2024
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i get the impression from various fomc members they think it is more like 3%. i guess what we have in our projections is the idea that policy will need to stay relatively restrictive. i think this is what you might hear from all central banks. you could hear something like that from the bank of england. the idea rates could be cut a little bit and still be restrictive. if we are still at 4% fed funds which we are by the end of 2025, arguably that is still restrictive to ensure an ongoing disinflationary process. we do not have core pce at 2% by the end of 2025. jonathan: appreciate the clarity as always. janet henry of hsbc. 2025 is such an interesting year. how difficult it is to have a view on next year without any clarity on the expiration of tax cuts, what will happen with tariffs if president trump gets another term in the white house. all of these things will have big implications for what happens with the broader economy. lisa: which is the reason i find it interesting. a lot of people are just -- lori calvasina -- the blinding white light of the sun. jo
i get the impression from various fomc members they think it is more like 3%. i guess what we have in our projections is the idea that policy will need to stay relatively restrictive. i think this is what you might hear from all central banks. you could hear something like that from the bank of england. the idea rates could be cut a little bit and still be restrictive. if we are still at 4% fed funds which we are by the end of 2025, arguably that is still restrictive to ensure an ongoing...
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May 14, 2024
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taking advantage of the fomc meeting, slightly dovish tone by the fomc, and japan sold more dollars. so, japan has done this intervention, now it is a question of credibility. if it doesn't slow the pace of depreciation of the yen, it will be much more difficult for japan to counter it. japan knows very well, the policymakers, that fundamentally it has two tighten policy to counter the weakening yen. that is the message it will be sending. the next step is quantitative tightening, in terms of after so much bond buying, reversing some of that would send signals to the market which are even more sure about yen strength than just intervention. paul: and we are seeing a multi year high in touching distance for a number of japanese treasuries. rajeev de mello, thanks so much for your insights there. still to come, janet yellen admits china may retaliate against the biden administration's planned tariff increases. our exclusive interview with the u.s. treasury secretary. this is bloomberg. ♪ paul: treasury secretary janet yellen says china could retaliate against steps the u.s. takes to
taking advantage of the fomc meeting, slightly dovish tone by the fomc, and japan sold more dollars. so, japan has done this intervention, now it is a question of credibility. if it doesn't slow the pace of depreciation of the yen, it will be much more difficult for japan to counter it. japan knows very well, the policymakers, that fundamentally it has two tighten policy to counter the weakening yen. that is the message it will be sending. the next step is quantitative tightening, in terms of...
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May 2, 2024
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they have the fundamentals on their side, it's about the yield after the fomc today. tom: thank you very much indeed. jerome powell keeping hopes alive for a rate cut this year indeed, but inflation has reduced confidence that price pressures are ebbing. >> it would not be appropriate to reduce the target range until we have gained weight or confidence that inflation is moving toward 2%. so far the data have not given us greater confidence, in particular readings on inflation have come in above expectations. gaining confidence will take longer than expected. tom: let's bring in mark cranfield. if this was a pivot it was at the dovish end of the spectrum. is this the fed with an easing bias? mark: mr. powell would like to lower interest rates. in december he kicked off the idea of rate cuts, he was excited inflation was coming down and dater showed we had a key reading at 1.9% below the key threshold. a lot has happened, several prints have been higher. a lot of backtracking and here we are, it is difficult to see them manage one rate cut but he's keeping the door open
they have the fundamentals on their side, it's about the yield after the fomc today. tom: thank you very much indeed. jerome powell keeping hopes alive for a rate cut this year indeed, but inflation has reduced confidence that price pressures are ebbing. >> it would not be appropriate to reduce the target range until we have gained weight or confidence that inflation is moving toward 2%. so far the data have not given us greater confidence, in particular readings on inflation have come in...
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May 1, 2024
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and of course as we turn our attention to the fomc that is really keeping traders on their toes. tom: 157.86 on dollar-yen. thank you for the check on the asian markets with a focus on the nikkei in the currency around the. the fed is poised to keep interest rates on hold for a sixth consecutive meeting. officials are expected to signal delays in future cuts could come amid sticky inflation. let's get more with ven ram. set us up for we can expect from the fed. a statement in any potential changes to the language and then what we will hear from jay powell. ven: yes, we're not going to get any summary of economic projections this time around, nor a dot plot. it will all be left to the statement and pilot signaling. he is likely to be hawkish. he has to be hawkish because he has no choice. the fed penciled in inflation rate of 2.6% for the year and that was already upward. now this year corsi -- core pce has averaged 3% which means the inflation script has not gone according to their tastes. which means the fed has no choice but to be hawkish. much of that is already in the treasur
and of course as we turn our attention to the fomc that is really keeping traders on their toes. tom: 157.86 on dollar-yen. thank you for the check on the asian markets with a focus on the nikkei in the currency around the. the fed is poised to keep interest rates on hold for a sixth consecutive meeting. officials are expected to signal delays in future cuts could come amid sticky inflation. let's get more with ven ram. set us up for we can expect from the fed. a statement in any potential...
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May 29, 2024
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than there is within the fomc. i think from the fomc's point of view they've been talking for some time now about the conditions under which they may lower rates and if those conditions are met, if, for example, governor waller's pre-conditions of several more months of good inflation data showing that inflation is moving back to target on a sustainable basis, if those are met, then i think the fomc would be inclined to go ahead with what it otherwise normally would do. secondly, if there were to be some sort of at this point unanticipated shock to the economy or unanticipated significant developments in the labor market i don't think the fomc would hesitate to lower rates. >> you think -- we had a debate about this the other day. do you think the transparency the fed has created has now created its own problem? do you think this is a good strategy, bad strategy to tell us what they're about to do? >> well, there's no question that transparency can be an important tool of monetary policy. i don't think anybody want
than there is within the fomc. i think from the fomc's point of view they've been talking for some time now about the conditions under which they may lower rates and if those conditions are met, if, for example, governor waller's pre-conditions of several more months of good inflation data showing that inflation is moving back to target on a sustainable basis, if those are met, then i think the fomc would be inclined to go ahead with what it otherwise normally would do. secondly, if there were...
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May 22, 2024
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when they hinted at it about a week ago, it was a key point of discussion among fomc investors. >> i want to talk about opportunities you're seeing in the global market. a lot of people think it's a big frothy. i want to ask you about a few different ones. i was in london as you may or may not know. i saw the ftse up, 8%, 8.5% year to date. is this more on what you're talking about? >> you've got a discount to the 10-year average. this morning we got the april uk cpi number. it plunged to 2 pnlts 3%. that was disappointing. it was supposed to come down to 3 2.1%. if you've got a combination of a recovery, that could lift valuations. >> we're one of the first guests to talk about japan. the nikkei up 15%. it's not valuation, right? it's a (d) story. i was calling it cardboard box recession. japan was recovering from that. it's outpaced the quarter. you combine that with fair valuations and you get a backdrop for continuing equities. >> we'll have to wait to see whether we get an intervention on the yen. great to see you. >>> one more quick look at the futures. they've been moving low.
when they hinted at it about a week ago, it was a key point of discussion among fomc investors. >> i want to talk about opportunities you're seeing in the global market. a lot of people think it's a big frothy. i want to ask you about a few different ones. i was in london as you may or may not know. i saw the ftse up, 8%, 8.5% year to date. is this more on what you're talking about? >> you've got a discount to the 10-year average. this morning we got the april uk cpi number. it...
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May 29, 2024
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but it's worth pointing out when it comes to kashkari is the most notable hawk on the fomc. perhaps those comments around rate cuts are rate hikes are on the table. still, it's the broader flavor we have seen come across markets that impact higher for longer fed policies. let's get more on that and bring in the head of emerging-market economics citigroup global markets who joins us today from singapore, at the sidelines of the city macro pan asia investment conflicts. there's a lot of different ways to slice and dice the impact of the fed saying higher for longer but what are the ways you are looking at it? quick sitting here in asia, the higher for longer fed is pretty much top of mine in a lot of investors and it's particularly challenging for asia because most central banks in asia, outside of a few like indonesia, asia and philippines, everyone's policy rates are lower than the fed. if you have boj in the negative rate differential by the fed. as market continues to reprice where they think fed action will be in terms of cutting less, than there's a huge debate about whe
but it's worth pointing out when it comes to kashkari is the most notable hawk on the fomc. perhaps those comments around rate cuts are rate hikes are on the table. still, it's the broader flavor we have seen come across markets that impact higher for longer fed policies. let's get more on that and bring in the head of emerging-market economics citigroup global markets who joins us today from singapore, at the sidelines of the city macro pan asia investment conflicts. there's a lot of different...
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May 1, 2024
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that's what i'd like for we say it's not what the fomc statement says what it says that's differ from the last one. >> right nuance looking for nuance everywhere. professor, thank you -- >> a red line, basically. >> red lining. basically run it through the machine learning quickly, show us the changes professor, thank you. >> sure thing, becky. >>> coming up, new york's, columbia university, calling in police finally to help with protesters upset over israel's military actions in gaza after the break, speak with an attorney who filed a class action lawsuit against the school blasting it for allegedly becoming too dangerous for jewish students. >>> "squawk box" will be right back. onic bra ur community. today is all about you. (♪♪) (♪♪) at corient, wealth management begins and ends with you. we believe the more personal the solution, the more powerful the result. we treat your goals as our own. we never lose focus on the life you want to build. and our experienced advisors design custom built strategies to help you get there. it's time for a wealth management experience as soph
that's what i'd like for we say it's not what the fomc statement says what it says that's differ from the last one. >> right nuance looking for nuance everywhere. professor, thank you -- >> a red line, basically. >> red lining. basically run it through the machine learning quickly, show us the changes professor, thank you. >> sure thing, becky. >>> coming up, new york's, columbia university, calling in police finally to help with protesters upset over israel's...
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now, you know, listen, in the fomc meeting jay powell just completely said there is no stag, there is no-flation. hard to suggest that maybe it is lingering out there the possibility, right? >> like i said maybe that is the new transitory because it could be that doth protest too much but we're seeing all the signs of it, particularly as we've gone through this earnings seals season with the projections going forward the bottom line is being impacted by rising costs and less demand for their particular products. so there you go. that's proof right there. charles: all right, so let's say we're in that environment or something very close to it. you say the biggest sector to watch this week will be the transportation index. there is a lot of ways watching it. you happen to like the i-shares transportation. iyt is the symbol. between 50 and 200-day moving average, sort of in a no-man's land. what are you looking for, what are the signals you're looking for here? >> first of all it is underperforming the rest of the market if you're looking at the overall indices for one. for two, it hasn'
now, you know, listen, in the fomc meeting jay powell just completely said there is no stag, there is no-flation. hard to suggest that maybe it is lingering out there the possibility, right? >> like i said maybe that is the new transitory because it could be that doth protest too much but we're seeing all the signs of it, particularly as we've gone through this earnings seals season with the projections going forward the bottom line is being impacted by rising costs and less demand for...
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May 18, 2024
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because we have strayed up to get on the rate cut narrative which makes no sense to me considering every fomc member is trying to tell everybody walk back from the edge, were not cutting rates anytime soon. we had five fed officials on thursday alone saying just that, singing the same song at this point, let's look ahead to next week we have nvidia earnings out on wednesday and a lot of retail coming out in another window into the consumer after we heard from walmart this past week the first big tech, nvidia would you buy the stock ahead of the numbers on wednesday? >> i'm not buying it ahead of the numbers because we already own it so i'm not buying anymore ahead of the number, it's going to be the number next week it's a crowded trade but everybody's going to be watching what he says when he comes out with the numbers, i think there is a shot at 545, the range goes from 495-2565, consensus is right around 545, revenue at 24.8 billion up odd% year-over-year, it's almost once again priced imperfection, if there's any sense of the slightest ms. the new could see anything you can see them hit t
because we have strayed up to get on the rate cut narrative which makes no sense to me considering every fomc member is trying to tell everybody walk back from the edge, were not cutting rates anytime soon. we had five fed officials on thursday alone saying just that, singing the same song at this point, let's look ahead to next week we have nvidia earnings out on wednesday and a lot of retail coming out in another window into the consumer after we heard from walmart this past week the first...
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May 29, 2024
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if you are the fomc, whether the the chairman or member of the fomc, and you're not seeing economic weakness, then cutting rates has a risk of stoking inflation. and if they cut rates before the economy weakens or when the economy's still strong, they run a risk of having to reverse course. i think whether it's for what's right for the economy or what's right for their legacy, they're not going to take that risk. >> so your view is it's bad to be early, the fed can never be early. they have to be late. >> i mean, if you put it in context, carl, the biggest mistake they made in a period when they've played a blinder in many, many ways, if the world looks at the u.s., is they waited too long to raise rates. and i think getting themselves in that position, i think they're going to be cautious. so they're going to want to see economic weakness before they cut rates. >> there's also -- >> 25 basis points doesn't matter in the scheme of things. so you know, maybe there's a 25 there for signaling reasons. but i don't see -- i don't see the fed, the fomc, taking the risk of stoking inflation rights
if you are the fomc, whether the the chairman or member of the fomc, and you're not seeing economic weakness, then cutting rates has a risk of stoking inflation. and if they cut rates before the economy weakens or when the economy's still strong, they run a risk of having to reverse course. i think whether it's for what's right for the economy or what's right for their legacy, they're not going to take that risk. >> so your view is it's bad to be early, the fed can never be early. they...
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May 1, 2024
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one on the topic of the fomc today is u.s. inflation. i think in terms of inking about the backdrop, you should also think about european inflation there is a very wide consensus that european disinflation is on track. growth has not been particularly strong. so, the picture makes complete sense. i would caution with narrative that -- the narrative that u.s. inflation is sticky because growth is stronger. if you measure inflation in the u.s. the way we measure inflation in europe, u.s. inflation is running lower. it fell earlier. jonathan: gre you are saying -- jonathan: you are saying it is a measurement issue? bankim: european inflation, which is on track, is actually catching down to u.s. inflation. and u.s. inflation, measured by the cpi or pce is obviously running much higher. what is the main reason for that? it is rent, i would argue, is the primary and key difference. and nobody pays that, it is an imputed price. jonathan: it is going to have consequences either way. given that europe or the u.s., which equity market do you want
one on the topic of the fomc today is u.s. inflation. i think in terms of inking about the backdrop, you should also think about european inflation there is a very wide consensus that european disinflation is on track. growth has not been particularly strong. so, the picture makes complete sense. i would caution with narrative that -- the narrative that u.s. inflation is sticky because growth is stronger. if you measure inflation in the u.s. the way we measure inflation in europe, u.s....
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May 2, 2024
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fomc stalling for time, wells fargo. i mean, i think that i like the idea that what he's really doing is saying, listen, i'll stall for time, things will go my way. he's confident he was not trapped, by the way, into saying something stupid, like, yeah, i know, i shouldn't have said what i said. david, there's a gotcha element to the media, but jay powell has been around for a long time, and he kind of knows how to speak without being trapped. >> yeah, he's done enough of these that you would think he kind of knows how to navigate them >> yeah. >> we talk often, though, about at least what are these mixed pictures that we see in terms of the performance of the consumer, particularly medium to lower-end. >> yeah. >> reflected in any number of the earnings that we've been going over lately. i just continue to wonder how that's play for him and what and how he addressed that during the call, during the conference call >> i'm glad you mentioned it, because we just keep hearing the same thing strapped, strapped, strapped cons
fomc stalling for time, wells fargo. i mean, i think that i like the idea that what he's really doing is saying, listen, i'll stall for time, things will go my way. he's confident he was not trapped, by the way, into saying something stupid, like, yeah, i know, i shouldn't have said what i said. david, there's a gotcha element to the media, but jay powell has been around for a long time, and he kind of knows how to speak without being trapped. >> yeah, he's done enough of these that you...
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May 23, 2024
05/24
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we saw how the fomc minutes came in more hawkish perhaps more than powell led on during his speech and that is bringing a resurgence in the dollar and putting pressure on asian currencies, particularly on the chinese yen. pboc seems to be leaning in. they said that six at the weakest level since january, allowing declines. we see the korean won under pressure no thanks to the strengthen the dollar but it mostly held steady after the bok kept rates unchanged as expected . yen has been moving up towards 156.9 earlier the session, i want to highlight what we see in chinese equities, it declines on a day where other counterparts are gaining. there also concerns about geopolitical tensions. hang seng leading declines dragging the index down. csi three hundred, material stocks but as you say it is about nvidia and about how even though there was a high bar, it really delivered on what we hear from the ceo, it sounds like more is to come. >> companies and countries are partnering with nvidia to shift the installed base of traditional data savers -- data centers to consolidated computing and b
we saw how the fomc minutes came in more hawkish perhaps more than powell led on during his speech and that is bringing a resurgence in the dollar and putting pressure on asian currencies, particularly on the chinese yen. pboc seems to be leaning in. they said that six at the weakest level since january, allowing declines. we see the korean won under pressure no thanks to the strengthen the dollar but it mostly held steady after the bok kept rates unchanged as expected . yen has been moving up...
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May 21, 2024
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claudia: jay powell is the fed chair speaking for the fomc. they clearly have some disagreements, it's healthy to have disagreements at this point, but he will reflect, the minutes will reflect what he said at the last press conference, reflecting connecting the dots of the last few days. it will kind of look a little bit more update -- upbeat then the media, but powell is the fed chair. he cannot row, here. he's communicating for the fomc and it's clear that he thinks we are headed toward 2%. not confident, but that's the direction. i don't expect the minutes to sound any different than the fed speak we are getting right now. yet the tone is probably going to be a bit darker than it would be if, you know, the meeting were after the last ppi. jonathan: claudia, appreciate your time there. breaking down numbers from macy's, dropping in right now but the outlook for the four year adjusted cps, with a previous range of 245 to 285. lisa: i find it interesting that the full-year net sales projected higher than or with earnings coming in higher than
claudia: jay powell is the fed chair speaking for the fomc. they clearly have some disagreements, it's healthy to have disagreements at this point, but he will reflect, the minutes will reflect what he said at the last press conference, reflecting connecting the dots of the last few days. it will kind of look a little bit more update -- upbeat then the media, but powell is the fed chair. he cannot row, here. he's communicating for the fomc and it's clear that he thinks we are headed toward 2%....
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May 13, 2024
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the chorus of voices from the fomc suggesting they are comfortable sitting higher for longer on rates out of the u.s., given what's been happening with inflation. does that change that narrative on the back of the inflation data that we expected? cpi this wednesday, did it just that narrative? here is what transpired the last three months when it comes to u.s. super court inflation, and beans acceleration, the white line is cpi's looting and energy, and u.s. cpi and services excluding energy and housing. as you can see from the start of this year, those lines have started to take up, on an aggregated basis in the first three months of the year, you have seen core inflation coming in at around 4.5% from 3.3% in q4, so that move up is what has led to the concerns. are we going to get a restart of the disinflation narrative with that inflation data out of the u.s. this week? let's have a look at what's been happening in china because the credit impulse fell off a cliff for the most recent data for april. aggregate financing out of china contracted for the first time in almost 20 years, a
the chorus of voices from the fomc suggesting they are comfortable sitting higher for longer on rates out of the u.s., given what's been happening with inflation. does that change that narrative on the back of the inflation data that we expected? cpi this wednesday, did it just that narrative? here is what transpired the last three months when it comes to u.s. super court inflation, and beans acceleration, the white line is cpi's looting and energy, and u.s. cpi and services excluding energy...
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May 8, 2024
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points on the course of this david over the last few days, we have had yields in after the most recent fomc meeting so a little bit of a switch there. we have the yen against the dollar and of course, the boj is signaling they could possibly make a surprise move but again investors are not taking that to seriously and oil has been flip-flopping. it was sharply lower earlier and we had the report out that showed there was a greater drawdown than expected so off the lows but down about 0.4%. the s&p 500 is hitting an interesting level of resistance. that's essentially 5200. it has been a line in the sand for the s&p 500 briefly making it above that level but not with any conviction. 5200 is holding right now and we watch this level to see whether or not we will see the s&p 500 breakout or potentially go back into what could be a range. as through its weighing on the index today, lots of big names, trip advisor plunging 30%, the worst day since 2011, since they went public and it's unlikely they will be taken private or there will be m&a action. uber is down slightly, tesla down 2% on a renewe
points on the course of this david over the last few days, we have had yields in after the most recent fomc meeting so a little bit of a switch there. we have the yen against the dollar and of course, the boj is signaling they could possibly make a surprise move but again investors are not taking that to seriously and oil has been flip-flopping. it was sharply lower earlier and we had the report out that showed there was a greater drawdown than expected so off the lows but down about 0.4%. the...
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May 30, 2024
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if the june fomc doesn't provide any hint of a fast cut early on in the second half of the year, probably that could be a trigger back to 160. it will be interesting to see what the bank of japan will do. >> i'm curious about your views on the idea that, let's take out the dollar component. the you think in the world where the fed turns lower, how does yen do? will it continue to suffer on the crosses against other asian currencies in a world where the fed is cutting rates? >> it is still a rate differential story. if you look at yen cross asset, japanese yields versus the rest of the world. yes, japan has stopped hiking rates. they might hike another 40 pips. in this world, it's basically so little. it depends on whether the other major currencies cut fast enough relative to the yen. if the ecb cuts in june and cuts further, probably the young perform better. they say the dollar, of course it is still going to be under pressure. haslinda: we keep waiting for the boj to do something about the yen. the thing is, it's getting more difficult for the boj to take action. yellen saying, that sh
if the june fomc doesn't provide any hint of a fast cut early on in the second half of the year, probably that could be a trigger back to 160. it will be interesting to see what the bank of japan will do. >> i'm curious about your views on the idea that, let's take out the dollar component. the you think in the world where the fed turns lower, how does yen do? will it continue to suffer on the crosses against other asian currencies in a world where the fed is cutting rates? >> it is...
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May 10, 2024
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they don't sit around the fomc table figuring out which candidate they want elected. they do not consider that. political they've noticed the calendar, the winds in washington. they've noticed where the reputation is and so that's what i mean by political they've noticed the july 31 meeting is right in the middle of the republican and democrat convention to give you one example. >> you will stick with us through the next 45 minutes or so. equity futures right now on the s&p positive on one third of 1%. let's get you an update on stories elsewhere. jim: -- sonali: plans to sell off the paramount lot. that's according to people with the matter. which already owns a tv production facility is said to be only interested for its ip's like the godfather trilogy, top gun films. sony also plans to sell paramount's tv stations and streaming service. there is a new investigation into the door panel blowout on boeing 737 max 9 plains in early january. the sec is scrutinizing the claims made about its safety practices and after the incident on the alaska airlines flight. the inves
they don't sit around the fomc table figuring out which candidate they want elected. they do not consider that. political they've noticed the calendar, the winds in washington. they've noticed where the reputation is and so that's what i mean by political they've noticed the july 31 meeting is right in the middle of the republican and democrat convention to give you one example. >> you will stick with us through the next 45 minutes or so. equity futures right now on the s&p positive...
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May 9, 2024
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the rates story switches to the boe of today and continuing to tied together the messaging from the fomc members and those within the fed suggesting higher for longer is where we should be on a rates. european futures, the unchanged, the ftse 100 looking to gains of close to point to a 1%. ftse looking at losses. nasdaq futures down .2 of 1%. megacap tech names disappointed in the session yesterday. let's look cross asset, the progress on the pound today. if we get a debit sense in terms of the rhetoric from andrew bailey and team and a shift on the mpc, that could impact the pound. we watched the open at 8:00 a.m. u.k. time. brent close to 84, a little bit of strength coming through for oil. iron ore in focus as well. one of the major cities, population in china getting the developments curbs edit restrictions around property purchases leading to expectations that could happen across the country and may be more demand for iron ore. we will check in on u.k. miners as well. ten year, 450. the 42 billion dollars auction was not well received by markets. avril hong standing by in singapore.
the rates story switches to the boe of today and continuing to tied together the messaging from the fomc members and those within the fed suggesting higher for longer is where we should be on a rates. european futures, the unchanged, the ftse 100 looking to gains of close to point to a 1%. ftse looking at losses. nasdaq futures down .2 of 1%. megacap tech names disappointed in the session yesterday. let's look cross asset, the progress on the pound today. if we get a debit sense in terms of the...
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May 6, 2024
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jerome powell already said during the fomc that he was not expecting higher rates, and that looks like the case is definitively now, after the u.s. jobs number, so treasury bonds heavy with it. equities are pleased because the u.s. economy is coming along nicely, jobs are being created but not too many, so it is not overheating. in terms of the u.s. dollar, because treasury yields came down slightly, that helps the u.s. dollar. all in all, it was a near perfect scenario. you see a continuation of the good mood going on in asia today. in terms of thinking this sets the stage for early rate cuts in america, people need to back off a bit from that. it really is not the case at all. there is a long way to go. and the inflation path of the story hasn't changed yet. we are still talking about 3.9% unemployed, which is a number which usually the fed would never lower interest rates in such a strong employment situation, so it needs the inflation date of the next three months to come down quite quickly, otherwise the fed will be looking at the fourth quarter for their first rate cut. tom: a wi
jerome powell already said during the fomc that he was not expecting higher rates, and that looks like the case is definitively now, after the u.s. jobs number, so treasury bonds heavy with it. equities are pleased because the u.s. economy is coming along nicely, jobs are being created but not too many, so it is not overheating. in terms of the u.s. dollar, because treasury yields came down slightly, that helps the u.s. dollar. all in all, it was a near perfect scenario. you see a continuation...
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May 20, 2024
05/24
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. >> macro calendar is pretty light this week we have fomc minutes, closely watched another thing tom lee mentioned late ici data investment institute saying cash balances on rise not just for consumers ordinary investors but institutions as well adding 11 billion dollars to cash four consecutive weeks selling rally retail added six billion to cash three weeks retail selling rally he likes that discrepancyism i know you do, too i want your take specifically on banks journal reporting fed two regulators moving to a plan to cut 20% mandate congressional, following by lobbying efforts, jamie dimon, banks higher this morning jamie mentioned to me in my interview in march with him where he said all of these new capital rules are putting u.s. banks at a disadvantage to international banks they don't have same capital rules. he is right we should take a look the fed taking a look at that we should i don't see how to walk that fine line where is protection? because, if you relax too much they talk about a potential another crisis that we don't have enough regulation in place if you over regul
. >> macro calendar is pretty light this week we have fomc minutes, closely watched another thing tom lee mentioned late ici data investment institute saying cash balances on rise not just for consumers ordinary investors but institutions as well adding 11 billion dollars to cash four consecutive weeks selling rally retail added six billion to cash three weeks retail selling rally he likes that discrepancyism i know you do, too i want your take specifically on banks journal reporting fed...
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May 2, 2024
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not a dovish outright statement, but it was a lot less hawkish than people had feared going into the fomc decision. the highlights, as you say, the fact that rate hikes are not really on the table. more importantly for the bond market especially, talk about the cutie, -- the talk about the qt, reducing the balance sheet run. it will be down from 60 billion a month, to 25 billion. that's a much bigger change than expected. it also comes in more quickly from june. they brought it forward. in a way, that's like kind of a stealth easing in itself because it takes a lot of pressure off the barn market. -- bond market. it's also for the equity market as well. from a portfolio point of view if you are an asset investor from the u.s., you have relative good news from the fed and good news from jerome powell. it's not saying interest rate cuts will start soon, but under the circumstances, it was a much better outcome than people had seen before the fed meeting. paul: perhaps not the news policymakers are trying to defend the yen in japan were looking for either. we saw another big news today, rais
not a dovish outright statement, but it was a lot less hawkish than people had feared going into the fomc decision. the highlights, as you say, the fact that rate hikes are not really on the table. more importantly for the bond market especially, talk about the cutie, -- the talk about the qt, reducing the balance sheet run. it will be down from 60 billion a month, to 25 billion. that's a much bigger change than expected. it also comes in more quickly from june. they brought it forward. in a...
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May 20, 2024
05/24
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we will get the june fomc where most likely the dot plots will have to change possibly to just one rate cut. wherever you look in the g10 space, there is a risk of too much exuberance as far as investors are concerned. tom: is there too much exuberance when it comes to equity markets? further gains today, a solid week last week, nvidia with earnings later on wednesday, how significant is goldman sachs describes this company is the most important in the world, what's your take on how significant nvidia will be? >> it is hard to argue that. there are very few single companies in the globe who can influence the macro markets. there are only one or two and nvidia is right up there. last time they did earnings was in february this year. since then, nvidia's stock is up more than 30%, it has driven significant gains across the tech really not just in the states but globally. when you think of a company with a couple of trillion dollars worth of market cap rising 30%, that is a significant amount of global money which has been sucked into just one company, into the whole tech and ai narrative.
we will get the june fomc where most likely the dot plots will have to change possibly to just one rate cut. wherever you look in the g10 space, there is a risk of too much exuberance as far as investors are concerned. tom: is there too much exuberance when it comes to equity markets? further gains today, a solid week last week, nvidia with earnings later on wednesday, how significant is goldman sachs describes this company is the most important in the world, what's your take on how significant...
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May 21, 2024
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it doesn't mean that the fed will continue to decline rates and affirm it after fomc. we have the election in the u.s. the calendar has indicated in november. the key question is, when, september. the second could be at the beginning of 2020 five. haslinda: the key question is also whether that cut in september that you are anticipating is enough to sustain the rally we see in the markets right now. >> it gives at least a good signal that the fed is pragmatic. the fed will not -- i mean, will not stay in the situation with no a to monetary policy. they are saying that if they see any, let's say, negative development on the labor market, on the economy, they will start to lower, to ease the financial conditions. which could be another thing for the equity market to end the year with a positive score. definitely, the fed could help. haslinda: does it also necessarily mean the dollar will weaken from september? >> yes and no. if the tone of the fed is extremely accommodative, it will weaken. however, we are not seeing anything amid the collapse of the u.s. economy, seeing
it doesn't mean that the fed will continue to decline rates and affirm it after fomc. we have the election in the u.s. the calendar has indicated in november. the key question is, when, september. the second could be at the beginning of 2020 five. haslinda: the key question is also whether that cut in september that you are anticipating is enough to sustain the rally we see in the markets right now. >> it gives at least a good signal that the fed is pragmatic. the fed will not -- i mean,...
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May 22, 2024
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today, i am surprised at the knee-jerk reaction to rearview mirror data, you have to remember the fomc meeting that ended on may 1st predated the weaker than expected jobs report for april as well as the cpi and ppi data. what was referenced in terms of the pickup of inflation that eased in data that came in since then. when you are at all-time highs, it's on the upside. not a surprise to see some profit-taking. liz: a spark plug but jolted people's entrance, something that again already happened weeks ago. there have been pieces of data that changed things. one thing they mentioned in the minutes was deteriorating household financial positions especially for lower income households might prove to be a bigger drag on activity than anticipated. with target and the power of the consumer to say i am done paying the price as we see disinflation. what do you expect happened here and how will that affect the markets? >> not just the lower end but lower income consumers when looking at their wages in real terms, not just seeing it in some other retail reports but in delinquencies in the subpr
today, i am surprised at the knee-jerk reaction to rearview mirror data, you have to remember the fomc meeting that ended on may 1st predated the weaker than expected jobs report for april as well as the cpi and ppi data. what was referenced in terms of the pickup of inflation that eased in data that came in since then. when you are at all-time highs, it's on the upside. not a surprise to see some profit-taking. liz: a spark plug but jolted people's entrance, something that again already...
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May 29, 2024
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kashkari is one of the more hawkish on the fomc. do you see that risk, though, of a possible hike the and very much overblown, or do you see rate cut expectations really being sustained through the end of the year? >> right now, i believe that we are actually somewhere stuck in the middle. because the inflation data, the latest one, has been slumming somewhat, but do not forget that over the previous few and most of the inflation data has been higher than expected. so right now, i believe we are probably looking at that castle between the zero to one rate cut at this moment in time. but depending on the data, it could swing the other way. therefore, you see the equity markets actually aren't able bit stuck right now after all the earnings have come out. we have a few quiet sessions. asia is not really getting a lot of cues from the u.s., and that is the reason why. people are deciding what to do at this moment in time after the earnings. haidi: one of the metrics they are looking at, what would be the next catalyst if earnings are i
kashkari is one of the more hawkish on the fomc. do you see that risk, though, of a possible hike the and very much overblown, or do you see rate cut expectations really being sustained through the end of the year? >> right now, i believe that we are actually somewhere stuck in the middle. because the inflation data, the latest one, has been slumming somewhat, but do not forget that over the previous few and most of the inflation data has been higher than expected. so right now, i believe...
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May 28, 2024
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we want to point out he is one of the most hawkish on the fomc. is this something that you have it all in your thinking as well? that we still have an outside chance of a rate hike. are we in a pattern where we stay higher for longer? saira: we are in a pattern for higher for longer. whether we get another hike will depend on whether inflation reacts seller's again. recent cpi and ppi data has come in in line so inflation is showing signs of no longer accelerating. with pce data later this week, that comes in line with consensus. that would be good news for the markets. portfolio management, given how the markets have riven -- risen. we need to wait for inflation to get to a more moderate level for a longer time before we see those first-rate cuts. there is a small chance that rate hikes could be back on the table if inflation rates re-accelerate again. haidi: one of the key questions out of that comic in the u.s. economy continued to grow when you have that inflationary environment? you've also got rate headwinds. saira: that's the main question
we want to point out he is one of the most hawkish on the fomc. is this something that you have it all in your thinking as well? that we still have an outside chance of a rate hike. are we in a pattern where we stay higher for longer? saira: we are in a pattern for higher for longer. whether we get another hike will depend on whether inflation reacts seller's again. recent cpi and ppi data has come in in line so inflation is showing signs of no longer accelerating. with pce data later this...
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wall street neithers uptick in unemployment rate jay powell made it clooer in a couple q&a answers at fomc, that, unemployment that is going to be trigger to start cutting rates listen everyone knows higher for longer in terms of inflation federal government, by the way, fiscal money raising monday boggling i go back to that mirror wild card government we know mined boggling check out aci report employment costs index shocking, not the private sector the private sector is free-fall, this government was up to 4.8% second highest last decade really truly monday boggling jolts report yesterday job option done except government 68,000 government hiring more people paying out outrageous money, how can you see local governments doing this part of american cares act that biden put through, 817 billion dollars is going to state and local governments so far pandemic oversight, where money is coming from, you know one hand, it is a form of manipulation the job numbers fantastic not forever, pay attention to the private sector, pay attention to jobs that are creating, you know real economic opportuni
wall street neithers uptick in unemployment rate jay powell made it clooer in a couple q&a answers at fomc, that, unemployment that is going to be trigger to start cutting rates listen everyone knows higher for longer in terms of inflation federal government, by the way, fiscal money raising monday boggling i go back to that mirror wild card government we know mined boggling check out aci report employment costs index shocking, not the private sector the private sector is free-fall, this...
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May 20, 2024
05/24
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there yet, i wonder if powell boxed himself into a corner and hear a bit about that on wednesday with fomc minutes not seeing rates going higher this year. they've not been so accurate. i'll be sensitive, they've not been so accurate with the predictions over the last 6, 9, 12 months or so and every turn when powell has come out and really made a stand, the market is kind of gone against him or the move in rates has gone against him. ashley: fascinating stuff. we're already out of time. you guys covered a lot of ground with your answers. scott sperling and scott bow bower -- bauer, appreciate your time. we're following developments around the deadly helicopter crash that killed iranian president ibram ragaini ham raisi and the foreign minister and bodies of six other passengers and crew were found early this morning after an overnight search in thick fog and rainy conditions. iran state media have shown images of the helicopter that slammed into the mountainside in iran's northwest. raisi returning from a official visit to the country's border with azerbaijan and they've released a stateme
there yet, i wonder if powell boxed himself into a corner and hear a bit about that on wednesday with fomc minutes not seeing rates going higher this year. they've not been so accurate. i'll be sensitive, they've not been so accurate with the predictions over the last 6, 9, 12 months or so and every turn when powell has come out and really made a stand, the market is kind of gone against him or the move in rates has gone against him. ashley: fascinating stuff. we're already out of time. you...
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May 10, 2024
05/24
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i think if i were -- especially one of the hawkish members on the fomc i would s been quite disappointed in chair powell's performance. it was kind of needless and set back their progress. maria: yeah. and in fact, you write that this is a failure of central planning and that jay powell and janet yellen have been reckless. in fact, they are putting politics in everything. i want to ask your take -- i want to get your take on this janet yellen speech in arizona the other day. but first, let me give you jim grant's opinion of where things are going. because he is in the camp that you are, saying this is all political. he says jay powell was political, calling inflation transitory and remains political. watch this. >> i believe that the fed itself regards a poe potential secondm for donald trump as a clear and present danger for the country. maria: that's why they'll be involved. >> the fed is very much you aligned with the democratic party. i think the fed without perhaps realizing it is doing something in the way of a political move, would be inclined to read the numbers in an interest ra
i think if i were -- especially one of the hawkish members on the fomc i would s been quite disappointed in chair powell's performance. it was kind of needless and set back their progress. maria: yeah. and in fact, you write that this is a failure of central planning and that jay powell and janet yellen have been reckless. in fact, they are putting politics in everything. i want to ask your take -- i want to get your take on this janet yellen speech in arizona the other day. but first, let me...
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May 22, 2024
05/24
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we will keep an eye on that for the week they big fomc meeting in a couple of weeks with a lot that could happen before then. what could happen between now and the valve? nvidia after the close. we will talk about the u.k. election earlier in the hour that was announced. for now, this is bloomberg. ♪ dangerous ladders. gutter muck. yuck. no wonder you hate cleaning your gutters. good thing there's leaffilter. our patented filter technology keeps leaves and debris out of your gutters forever. guaranteed. call 833- leaffilter to get started. and get the permanent gutter solution that ends clogs for good. they took the time to answer all of our questions. they really put us at ease. end clogged gutters for good. call 833.leaf.filter, or visit leaffilter.com today. her uncle's unhappy. end clogged gutters for good. call 833.leaf.filter, i'm sensing an underlying issue. it's t-mobile. it started when we tried to get him under a new plan. but they they unexpectedly unraveled their “price lock” guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the “un-carrier”. you si
we will keep an eye on that for the week they big fomc meeting in a couple of weeks with a lot that could happen before then. what could happen between now and the valve? nvidia after the close. we will talk about the u.k. election earlier in the hour that was announced. for now, this is bloomberg. ♪ dangerous ladders. gutter muck. yuck. no wonder you hate cleaning your gutters. good thing there's leaffilter. our patented filter technology keeps leaves and debris out of your gutters forever....
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May 1, 2024
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. >>> coming up here on the show, markets cut rate expectations ahead of today's fomc decision. we'll break down when we might see that elusive first cut. stay with us. raising you was no bed of roses. are you getting me anything for mother's day? go to 1-800-flowers.com. oh my gosh! wow! gorgeous! i feel like royalty. thank you. 1-800-flowers.com. happy mother's day. happy mother's day! my name is ashley cortez and i'm the founder of the stay beautiful foundation when i started in 2016 i would go to the post office and literally fill out each person's name on a label and now with shipstation we are shipping 500 beauty boxes a month it takes less than 5 minutes for me to get all of my labels and get beauty in the hands of women who are battling cancer so much quicker shipstation the #1 choice of online sellers go to shipstation.com/tv and get 2 months free what is cirkul? cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. cirkul is your frosted treat with a sweet kick of confidence. cirkul is the energy that gets you to the next level. cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemon
. >>> coming up here on the show, markets cut rate expectations ahead of today's fomc decision. we'll break down when we might see that elusive first cut. stay with us. raising you was no bed of roses. are you getting me anything for mother's day? go to 1-800-flowers.com. oh my gosh! wow! gorgeous! i feel like royalty. thank you. 1-800-flowers.com. happy mother's day. happy mother's day! my name is ashley cortez and i'm the founder of the stay beautiful foundation when i started in...
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May 30, 2024
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another fomc meeting in about two weeks time. thank you so much for that update. coming up, a company pitching itself as a solution to un-affordability in the housing market, particularly vacation homes and second homes. we will have the ceo next. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. u.s. existing home sales tumbled to a four year low in april. pending home sales and contract signings dropped 7.7% since the beginning of the pandemic. the monthly decline was steeper than all estimates in the region. with this data in high mortgage rates, potential homeowners are looking for potential alternatives. picasso might be an option. it's a platform for buying and selling shares of luxury vacation homes. the ceo joins us now along with abigail doolittle. thank you so much for joining us. how is a picasso shared different from a timeshare? >> thank you so much for having me. i'm sitting in a picasso home today. it's called infinite road and it sits in napa valley and it's available for $1.4 million which is 1/8 of the whole home price. to answer your que
another fomc meeting in about two weeks time. thank you so much for that update. coming up, a company pitching itself as a solution to un-affordability in the housing market, particularly vacation homes and second homes. we will have the ceo next. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. u.s. existing home sales tumbled to a four year low in april. pending home sales and contract signings dropped 7.7% since the beginning of the pandemic. the monthly decline was steeper than all...
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May 2, 2024
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that treasury yields are coming down after powell's perceived relatively dovish performance at the fomc. unlike on monday, the yen is gaining. monday, in the onin-depth -- lead up to what end up provoking the yen intervention, we had the yen weakening at a time everything was strengthening against the u.s. dollar. that looked odd. probably a signal to the japanese authorities that they needed to step in to stop the situation from getting out of hand. now, if anything, the yen is leading gains against the dollar, yesterday and it did so today. makes it clear that at least for now, traders are treating this as a one-way street towards yen gains. so far, that means that the stop sign, as it were, that intervention has thrown up, is working. the big test for that will be jobs, if jobs come in strong, does that upset the apple cart as far as treasuries go? if yields jump back up? if yields go up, do people jump back into the yen bearish bets, or are they going to remain cautious because they are aware that the bank of japan could come back into the market at the ministry of finance's command
that treasury yields are coming down after powell's perceived relatively dovish performance at the fomc. unlike on monday, the yen is gaining. monday, in the onin-depth -- lead up to what end up provoking the yen intervention, we had the yen weakening at a time everything was strengthening against the u.s. dollar. that looked odd. probably a signal to the japanese authorities that they needed to step in to stop the situation from getting out of hand. now, if anything, the yen is leading gains...
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May 13, 2024
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since then volatility has totally eroded post fomc and as a geopolitical concerns have waned in terms of equity markets. vix should trade as a premium and realize it's been sneakily on the rise and we think the volatility risk is due for a moderate rise this week in the short term >> very interesting. i'll let meme take conclusions what they may. maxwell, we appreciate it. maxwell with ubs >>> coming up, don't look now, but gamestop shares are soaring and the move happens to coincide with an uptick in the short interest in the stock and there was and we'll take a look at that and the other names next. don't go anywhere. >> welcome back to "the exchange." the dow has given up its gain to turn lower s&p 5219, it's down three while the nasdaq is hanging on to a quarter percentin and increase here 4.475 ahead of cpi. check out shares of gamestop surging 60+ percent up 110% at session highs today after keith gill, aka, roaring kitty posted online for the first time in three years. gil showed a gamer taking the game seriously and this was enough to bring out the meme masses with the likes o
since then volatility has totally eroded post fomc and as a geopolitical concerns have waned in terms of equity markets. vix should trade as a premium and realize it's been sneakily on the rise and we think the volatility risk is due for a moderate rise this week in the short term >> very interesting. i'll let meme take conclusions what they may. maxwell, we appreciate it. maxwell with ubs >>> coming up, don't look now, but gamestop shares are soaring and the move happens to...
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May 22, 2024
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charles: jay powell went out of his way the last two fomc q&a periods, to mention labor. this is my theory, joe, i believe the fed will always 4.1, maybe 4.2 percent unemployment the excuse or reason to start cutting rates. >> they may, charles. it depends where inflation is. the three and six months rates of change have to be at least where they were last november when powell gave the decent pivot. on the labor market if it weakens, certainly that could bring the fed into play much sooner. i believe the labor market is soft but to danielle's point about layoffs, the bls data, third largest government adjustment creating jobs that may or may not exist in the history of net birth death adjustments. if the labor market is weaker than i think, i believe danielle thinks the same thing the payroll numbers will ultimately revised down. charles: these revisions after the fact never move the needle. >> no. they don't. as long as equity market thinks this is any vana, you create a lot of wealth, you keep the party going. >> to joseph's point who cares about the third quarter of 20
charles: jay powell went out of his way the last two fomc q&a periods, to mention labor. this is my theory, joe, i believe the fed will always 4.1, maybe 4.2 percent unemployment the excuse or reason to start cutting rates. >> they may, charles. it depends where inflation is. the three and six months rates of change have to be at least where they were last november when powell gave the decent pivot. on the labor market if it weakens, certainly that could bring the fed into play much...