tavis: good evening. from los angeles, i am tavis smiley. first up, a look at this state of the florida race for the white house. polls show mitt romney with a lead over his chief rival, newt gingrich at the moment. a win in florida would be his biggest yet as he tries to secure a republican nomination. also, a conversation with the filmmaker who made take home the oscar top prize next month for "the artist." it is an acclaimed a silent black-and-white project. we have a look at the artist coming up right now. >> every community has a martin luther king boulevard. it's the cornerstone we all know. it's not just a street or boulevard, but a place where walmart stands together with better.

>> and by contributions from your pbs station -- to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. [captioning made possible by kcet public television] tavis: ron brown skin is a two- time -- ron brownstein is a two- time award winning journalist. he has been covering this race. good to have you back on the program. >> good to be back. tavis: you just got back from florida. these numbers referenced suggest that mitt romney is going to pull this off. do you believe that? >> inouye gingrich has had a

difficult week. -- a new to gingrich has had a did a good week. he has been kind of lethargic on the stump. this has been arguably the most unsettled primary race for either party in the modern era. in 2011, there were more people had in the voting in the national polls than any previous at a year's election. we have never had a race where different people one of iowa, new hampshire, and south carolina in the republican race. this could reestablish mitt romney as the front runner if he wins, but it does not feel like the last act of this play. tavis: if i say to you that mitt romney is going to win and you say, so what, newt gingrich has already said he is going to win. if mitt romney wins in florida, what of it?

>> money and organization do matter. they have pulverized gingrich in florida on television, outspend -- outspending him in some instances of 5 to 1. what has really been a pretty miserable for gingrich is that there is an action and reaction foundation in the party. you have seen more establishment republicans like john mccain and bob dole rally around romney. you are seeing the populist wing and the vanguard conservative wing of the party, whether it is rush limbaugh or sale apparent -- sarah palin or herman cain at rallying around him. tavis: why would anybody believe that mitt romney could actually beat barack obama.

and i'm not suggesting that he cannot, but i'm asking why anybody believes that he can given that he has had difficulty rallying his face behind him? >> in some ways, the most important thing happening for republicans in the past few weeks is seen the limitations for mitt romney as a candidate. he has struggled to answer the questions about his background, his personal wealth, his ability to relate to average americans, which are somewhat muted in a republican primary much more so than in a general election. on the other hand, there is one solid bandage to romney as a general election candidate, which is a lot of the upper middle class, socially moderate, slightly right of center and voters who have been so important since 1992, it suggests they see him as a plausible manager of the economy. that white and blue

disaffection of obama is true and very real. mitt romney starts off the race as a plausible candidates to, certainly much more so than gingrich. his actual performance, i think, has to raise concern about his attacks in the republican primary. the >> bill clinton -- tavis: bill clinton has said that every election is about the future rather than the past. it does not matter what the polls say. and what matters is the turnout on election day. here is my thesis. make what you want of it. mr. obama definitely has an enthusiasm gap on the left. mr. romney, his speech was more aspiration of and anything else. mr. obama clearly has an enthusiasm gap on the left.

and mr. romney has and enthusiasm back on the right. they both have an enthusiasm back on both sides. what gives? how is that going to play out? >> i think you are basically right. you could add one more point to it, which is that groups at the core of the modern coalition, what i called the coalition of the desceant, minorities, young people, ana college educated whites, they are among those being hit absolutely hardest by the recession. obama and need to those groups should turn out that have suffered in the last few years. as you point out, the most conservative elements of the republican party are dubious of romney. generally speaking, both campaigns are relying heavily on the concern about the party to generate a a turnout.

what i would mean for the environment, spending on social programs and health care -- what that would mean for the environment, spending on social programs, health care, should mean turn out. older voters are rolled lead going to be more motivated to show up and vote against president obama. -- older voters are probably going to be more motivated to shop and go against president obama. tavis: mr. gingrich has certainly run a blueprint for how to run against mr. romney. i want to talk about the president running against congress, but let's talk about specifically mr. romney. it will not work for the obama campaign? >> i think they are going to use it. we think about the focus on his

wealth and what lovain did in destroying -- whether he created or destroyed jobs. i think is going to be very difficult if you look at the 2008 and the 2010 results for them to make inroads into that working class community. it is not their coalition anymore. what do these up for middle- class suburbanites think about? how do they interpret the gain experience? if you look up polling that has been done in swing states like florida, pennsylvania, ohio, romney does well among college- educated whites who know about the economy. as a process this, do they see it as the class warfare as republicans wanted to see it? or do they see it as a wall street maneuvering that has hurt them? i think they are the key

audience. and i honestly do not know. how of voters in jabr that experience will be one of the two or three critical things for a romney race. tavis: why is it wise for the president to even utter the phrase "class warfare,"? he went after a pretty hard. you may call it class warfare. by kalla common sense. >> i think he has to respond to that. you noted the bill clinton statement that elections are always about the future. not entirely true with racism -- with a race for incumbent presidents. the question is, who do you think has a better chance of leading us to a broader tomorrow? he has to frame what he is doing to get the economy

started. you do not have enough purchasing power spread out among a enough hands. republicans want to argue that he is making an argument against success. you have to be careful with those upper middle-class voters. a lot of people making $150,000, even $250,000. there are more socially liberal and they are not as viscerally hostile to government as a lot of a working-class whites who feel the government is taking money from their pockets to give it to people who do not deserve it. if republicans successfully portray him as opposing a success, it will cut into the democrat votes he has had and will need. tavis: the occupy wall street movement in washington is up and kicking again. i have said many times that in

the spring, they will be back up and live and in living color. i think that is a good thing, but a conversation for another time. mr. rahm recalls that the politics of envy. might it just be the case that given how well the he is at this particular time with what has happened in the american economy, while we do not necessarily paid at folk who are rich, might it be the wrong time for -- not necessarily hate folks who are rich, might it be the wrong time for someone like him to run for office? >> priuquite possibly. you have a broad sense in the economy, not only in the minority community, which has suffered enormous losses of wild and as you have covered in the housing bubble. not only in the upper wide class community, bobby middle class. -- but also in and middle class.

there is a sense that wall street has behaved irresponsibly. everything that they have done to fix the economy since to dominate have disproportionately done what broke the economy before 2008. if the democrats can tighten romney to the idea of manipulating and pushing paper and getting rich -- i'm surprised that break santorum has not made more of that argument with his manufacturing focus. but that the bigger vulnerability than the sheer size of his bank account. tavis: if mr. romney as expected pulls off floor on tuesday night, can mr. gingrich hang on long enough past february to get to super tuesday were all of those southern states and his message to christian conservatives plays well? can he hang on long enough? and if he does, what happens

past february? >> that is the $64,000 question. the republican race is dividing the a. the sentimental -- right along the fundamental fault line in the party. the fundamental fault line ithee affluent, more secular part of the party that has rallied around from a. and a blue-collar, downscale, evangelical wing that isn't the teapot people -- the tea party populists -- that is the tea party populists of the party. gingrich has got to get three very difficult month of february where he may not win anything. historically, there have been few candidates i can go a long losing streaks and maintain viability. hillary clinton did it in 2008.

she lost about 10 to obama and came back. ronald reagan in 1976. walter mondale also did it. he has to increase his visibility long enough to see his coalition be the majority coalition. tavis: i was appreciated. thanks for running on. up next, a conversation about "the artist" with the film's writer and director. tavis: "the artist" as of 410 award nominations this week -- is up for 10 nominations this week. not bad when you consider he beat out a couple of guys named woody allen and martin scorsese's. here are a couple of scenes from

"the artist." ♪ ♪ [piano plays] ♪ ♪ [drums] ♪ [big band jazz music]

tavis: i leaned over to michel during necklet -- his wife is in the movie and i say, she is brilliant and you said -- ? >> yes, she is brilliant, but she is really brilliant in real life as well. tavis: that is not bad. [laughter] >> and no, it is not. she is a wonderful woman. i'm really lucky. tavis: you may have just answer the question. how did your wife and of being cast as the lead? how did you pick both of these lease? -- these leads? >> they really inspired the characters. i used them to write the script. tavis: what is making this thing

so resonate? before "the artist" came out, harvey weinstein -- we agreed he is a character. he was on the program telling me about this thing before it even came out. what is it that is making this work? he gave you all of the credit. he said he was not in it from the beginning. he found out later on. he gave you credit for this process. what is making it work? >> for the movie, i think the format is something that can be new for people. it is very speciaspatial. being silent, and leaves so much room for your imagination. i think people enjoy that also, i think it is a movie without cynicism and without sarcasm. and it is a of movie about hollywood and about america.

many people are happy to see a naive movie about hollywood. i think maybe that works. and maybe, i don't know. maybe there is some kind of -- it is a new experiment. they think, it is silent, black- and-white, french. maybe it is going to be boring. tavis: [laughter] >> maybe they have a negative idea. the movie is easy to watch, so they are more happy. what may tavis: do think that this would work? -- tavis: what made you think this would work? and i ask it specifically because in france and around the world, because of technology and so many other things, our attention span is so short. what made you think that a silent film today would work?

>> i would never have expected that kind of response of the audience. the financing people, i told them that maybe with festivals and with the critics it could work. but i haven't a hunch that it was a good movie -- i had a hunch that it was a good movie to make. but my point was to make a good movie. as an audience, i really love to silent movies. and silent movie theaters. they stopped making these in the 1920's. to make a son of movie now, you have the benefit of 80 years of sophisticated -- to make a silent movie now, you have the benefit of 80 years of sophisticated action. but you never know how people

can connect. harvey weinstein did that wonderful job connected people with the movie in how he introduced the movie. tavis: you are 44. the >> yes. tavis: so you are a yawn -- a young guy. how did you get texposed to -- what makes a guy embrace an era that ended before he was even born? >> i don't know. people make movies about the roman empire. tavis: [laughter] fair enough. >> it is very synergen. -- synergetic. when i was speaking about the desire to make a silent movie, everybody was why, why?

my point was how, how long do you make a sign movie? -- how do you make a silent movie? it had to be in the 1920's. it was a way for me to control my love for hollywood and all of the classical movies from hollywood. >> for those who have not seen it, why don't you describe what the story line is? >> the story is a about a seventh actor, a male actor here in hollywood. at the same time, he made to a young arjuujenou and she as a yg actress and will become a star. the story is out their destinies

cross. tavis: there are a couple of moments in the film where we really do hear sound. >> yes. tavis: i do not want to give it away, but how did you decide those were the places where the sound needed to come through? >> in the movie, the antagonist is the sound. for the forced noisy sequence, because it is not talking -- the ecrst noisy sequence, because it is not talking, it is just noise, i wanted the antagonist. and i wanted it here because i wanted it to come early in the narration, because i wanted to say to people -- there will not be any big surprise. it is a very classical story. how the story is told is more important for me than the story itself. and i thought it was funny and cool to surprise people with

some very simple things. because the convention of the movie is to be silent. and then you have sound and it is really a shocking. and it is so normal for what we hear. tavis: how difficult was the undertaking? you get this brilliant idea. once you get the money and are into the filming, how much more difficult, if at all, was pulling this off than you had originally imagined? >> there is no easy movie to make. tavis: [laughter] >> the beginning was not easy. the first thing was that i had to convince myself that it was doable. before was 100% convinced, nothing moved.

and then things began to come together. the first producer siad, they smiled, but not a good smile. and then i began to work with the next producer and it became easy. and he promised he would do it. and the gap of money, he put his own money. it has been great. tavis: how difficult was it to sell this, number one? and what are investors it saying now? >> the investors are very happy. tavis: [laughter] >> and they are right to take the credit. that is right. and the once who said no, they are not happy. tavis: [laughter] >> at the meeting, they were very funny. when joerres -- when you are

meeting with someone who is supposed to finance the movie and you tell them it is a black- and-white silent movie, you see his face and you know he is going to say no. he started to laugh and we had some good moments. sometimes it is so sad that you start to laugh. tavis: michel toni until next time, keep the faith. >> for more information on today's show, visit tavis smiley at pbs. building healthir communities.

>> every community has a all know. it's not just a street or boulevard, but a place where walmart stands together with your community to make every day better. >> and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. [ captioning made possible by kcet public television] possible by kcet public television]