come all as that are in order to bear down the enemy, a bank on the mobilization of the nation. and the alliance with russia, which acted as a united front with turkish patriots. at the end of august 1922, the third's army won a decisive victory over the invaders in the battle of doom. libby not and within a month liberated all asia minor from them. the impressive success of the circus army force the west to make concessions. in 1923, the loss on these treaty was signed turkey. one of the 1st countries in asia manage to defeat the colonial empires and defend its independence. becoming an example for millions of via press on the planet. the hello, i'm manila chan. you're tuned into modus operandi. 2 years into the conflict in

ukraine. demographers are reading the alarms about the dwindling population numbers in the country. you might think this is all due to the war, but actually the details of the real causes might shock you. but we'll break it all down for you next. all right, let's get into the m o. the, it's a grim future for ukraine is hundreds of thousands of men have died along the front . but that's actually just one small factor in the dwindling population of the country once labeled. europe's most corrupt. a year prior to february 2022. the un issued a report about a population bussed in ukraine due to things like poverty, unhealthy lifestyles, emigration, and in fatality. in short,

even prior to the conflict, ukraine was already suffering from an agent population on one end, and not enough young people on the other to properly sustain and develop their country ad in the front line depths, and survivors who will frequently continue to live out the rest of their lives with severe disabilities. the grim 2021 you one report is actually now best case scenario. joining us to way in is mark sl boda. he is an international relations and security analyst. he's a former u. s. navy nuclear, engineer and host of the real politic with marks the border which you can find on youtube, sub stack and telegram mark, great to see you. so 1st mark, we saw this pre war un 2021 report summary about ukraine's population dynamics. they certainly painted a grim future for ukraine. i'm paraphrasing here,

but in a fact, they say ukraine was already among the fastest shrinking populations on earth pre war. and that their numbers would hit this unsustainable 35000000 by the year 2050 . but again, this was a full year before the russian special military operation. there are a ton of factors that play, of course, for population dynamics. but how do you think the war itself will re shape ukraine's numbers as well? the war is going to have a lot of effects in a lot of different ways. none of them that are good for ukraine's demographics and you cranes. demographics are bad, probably the worst in the world because they couple a um, high emigration from the country with a high mortality rate because of the conflict with an

already existing western or 1st world phenomenon of a shrinking population. uh, because of, of, you know, the standard modern, a fax of birth controls women working and everything else combined with the economic depression effect on population that was almost universal across the post soviet space. so uh, in 1991, the ukraine had a population of about 52000000. that population has, at, by the start of the conflict that had shrunk to about 34000000 in just 2 decades. just over to that, what's the cost the $3.00 decades? because of all of these events before the conflict and now on top of the conflict,

which really started in 2014, with some 20 percent of formerly ukranian territory. now, part of russia, they cried me uh the don boss and uh, most of arizona is up a rosa. that is a huge of course, further population laws. now there hasn't been an official census in ukraine since 2001. so a lot of it is, is due to unofficial research, but the real population of ukraine in area controlled by the key of government now may be somewhere between 20 and 25000000, which is the say less than half the population that it started out. it's in 1991, so the current conflict, more territory almost certainly is going to end the conflict in

as part of russia then exists now, so that that would be the 1st effect. emigration from the country continues not quite as high, is at the start of the conflict, but it is very high. and i think that only a very small minority of ukrainians living either who have, you know, taken essentially refugee status in europe or in russia. and it's important, it's often neglected in the western media that there are some 5000000 ukrainians. alright. the meaning, you know, people from ukraine who areas that are still not considered part of russia that are in russia. right. that are living working, or you know, it's some type of refugee status in russia. most of those will not return. i,

likewise, i am quite sure whatever they may say to the contrary. uh, the ukranian refugees and displaced in europe and then battlefield, that's uh and uh, battlefield, that's our of course everyone tacitly acknowledges a much, much higher uh, even currently uh then then what the, every game officially puts out. and the western press acknowledges. you hear comments about all the time in the western media from the actual ukranian troops fighting for the average him on the battlefield about how high their, their casualties are. but it doesn't kind of treat the narrative. um, so as the conflict is very likely to continue for years into the future. so it is entirely possible that ukraine will and this conflict in whatever

territory is still an independent state of ukraine if it still exists. at the end of this conflict with less than a $20000000.00 population. yeah, for perspective i'm from los angeles. as you know, l. a county alone has roughly 10000000 people, so it sounds like ukraine is, is very sparsely populated to begin with. so let's talk for a moment about the, the millions of ukrainian workers. you are really touched on this little bit, who according to the one, they say that at any given time, roughly around 3000000 people are, are working abroad. these are mostly what one of us would call working age people. so you might say between ages 18 and 55. then they say half of those people. so around 1500000 are considered low skilled occupation or laborers and the sort

and the other half are the young college educated professionals. the estimate is that one 3rd of them are under the age of $35.00. it seems that that last cohort cohort, they seldom returned to the motherland because they wanted a cushy jobs abroad. you know, started building lives for themselves somewhere else. most of them being meals. the boys never come home because there's a dearth of opportunity for them in their careers. could we explain or attribute some of ukraine's lagging birth rates to this whole labor issue to working abroad? there's also constriction. there's also direction to the military that no uh, really same made. busy ukrainian wants to return to because they face immediately being conscripted and arriving in a trench in the front end of day of the or uh,

you know, of the flanks of back move often within 2 to 3 weeks of returning to the country. as we just touched upon in that last question, with so many men working abroad, never to return the loan number of males in ukraine is exacerbated by this forced conscription that floated mirror zalinski implemented boys as young as 15. 2 men as old as 60 are going to the front. if they manage to survive, as we've seen thus far, already, hundreds of thousands are now permanently disabled. i mean, a whole, whole generation of ukrainian males are disabled. what do you make of that prospect who, who's gonna care for them and how? yeah there, there are no good answers to that question. there, there is no, uh, answer to it. um, nope, no pleasant answer anyway. um there is that is going to be a huge burden the disabled of the population because many,

many of those disabled are amputees, right? the majority of that, as a result of the type of conflict in, in nutrition war flop very largely with our tillery and um, the cambridge him having a significant problem, getting their casualties back from the battlefield to a safe medical facilities leads to that. the most often result of such types of injuries, according to the western media, according to you know, doctors reporting to them from the hospitals is, is often amputation. so that's, that's going to be particularly tragic and no one has an answer to that. at this point, no one but very coverage him supposedly has a 1000000 men under arms. that is what the president of the regime zalinski says.

of course, that's not counting any casualties from the beginning of the conflict, which according to the russian ministry of defense, are over $300000.00 men and some estimates put them significantly higher than that . it. um, right now the cambridge team is finalizing a new mobilization bill through the ride out through their, their parliamentary body. they're having political difficulties doing with it because they're calling for the further conscription of 452500000 more. and no one wants to take political responsibility for that, but it interesting. no, is the age of the military up the front right now the average age is in the mid fourties around $44.00, which is should be shocking. a while uh the average team takes in recruits

volunteers younger than $25.00. it doesn't actually can script men younger than 25 yet. and that might surprise a lot of people until you understand the demographic and narrowing. that is an existential threat to the future of you great. such that in the late ninety's in early 2, thousands because of the very bad economic conditions, corruption, the people weren't having children there still or now of course, but there was a very particular narrowing then, which means that there are 4 times the, the population from say, 35 to 55 is or times larger than the population of 18 to 25. right?

i mean the, it's, it's a huge generic. so there has been an attempt to spare the younger generation of ukrainians from conscription, so that there is some one to carry on and have children ukraine, which is why they've been recruiting so many older men who are now dying in the trenches. so, but of course, those young men are also in prime economic activity to their being taken away from the economic activity of the country. right. a 1000000 under arms currently asking for another 452500000 more and considering how many have already emigrated either to, to the west, to europe or to, to the east, to russia, the 1000000. so that leaves of very, very small working pool,

particularly when we're talking skilled fields. and right now, what economy still exists in ukraine, which isn't much businesses are suffering from incredible shortages of labor and in particular skilled labor. all right, coming up next, modern western societies are seeing a lowered birth rate. much of this due to infertility, is that why ukrainian women are finding surrogacy as a major source of income. we'll discuss it when we return with marx to load a said type m, o will be right back the, to take a fresh look around as a life kaleidoscopic. isn't just a shifted reality. distortion by power to division with no real live indians.

fixtures, design to simplify, it will confuse who really wants a better world. and is it just as a chosen few fractured images presented as 1st? can you see through their illusion going underground? can the triple play studio 3 when you cpd with the story? ok, school level, the use of solutions, stuff that you see the shift going. it's because she couldn't. miller will collect, look stupid to photocopy slip to discuss the dizzy on this before they have to do is to make sure that you create excuse. but our name is which historical stories of disposable cleaning, some of the, with the doors and not say that the point it's done. it's conflicting the,

let's say, by pushing of centuries ago, your 4 bears name this country ukraine or frontier because you're steps blank, europe and asia, the ukrainians, that become frontiersman of another story. these people will be able to sing the songs which i like most of them, there's always, you know, going to jump to the most goals. it would have been that much. a lot of the headlights maybe which is cool. man joe, point on the post. co pays gift to suck you the crazy stuff on the the,

the welcome back to the m o i manila chan mark. so boda is back with us. mark, thanks for sticking around. so what are the factors for the the population of ukraine is below fatality along women? yet ukraine is also the western world baby factory. i mean, by that, i mean, renting a, well, many ukrainian women are so i guess because of the very lax laws around all of that . so those baby, so they're being born, but then they go somewhere else. any thoughts on that? yeah, this is a, it's a very hot button, political and cultural issue right now in you grand, there is, has been multiple proposed bills put forward to the every james

parliamentary body, the ronda asis, you know, asking for this sir. again see to be banned. it has not been as of yet as far as i know, but there is certainly the possibility of simply because it is rightly or wrongly seen as taking potential children away from ukraine and essentially giving them to the west. now, you know that, of course there's issues of choice and a woman's body, but the fertility rate is an incredible problem. point 7, right? uh, you know, an average woman of childbearing age now only has point 7 children that's far, far below replacement rate. it is now the lowest in the world and it is due to again, the number of factors, everything that is that societal economic problems. you know, 1st of all,

1st of all, the country with women and now having fewer children, thanks to birth control, abortions. uh and, uh, women in careers, that's a phenomenon being experienced across the 1st world. and now increasingly into the global south is as well. but that is compounded was the post soviet economic depression. a phenomenon experienced across most of the post soviet space rush will pull out of it in the 2, thousands. but ukraine has never emerged from the ninety's. and it's often a shock to see those numbers. but when you're facing an in the secure economic future where, you know the future looks even less bright than the present and the present doesn't look very good. people tend not to have children dramatically. uh, so uh,

and then the very high mortality rate in ukraine. the right now the average life expectancy of a man is between 57 and 58 years and you grant that is absolutely shocking. but even before the conflict, you know, um such factors as alcoholism, suicide, they all played very high rolls. and in bringing life expectancy down dramatically . once again, you can never emerged from the ninety's they've, they've been living in that shock. sarah p corrupt world ever since, and have never emerged from it. so, so that leaves to this incredibly low life expectancy, high mortality, high immigration, low fatality rate, a facility rate,

and then the conflict and large amounts of ukrainian land voting to get out of dodge and joining russia. it is a demographic death spiral, and it has to be said as well as surrogacy another. the problem that ukraine is experiencing is unfortunately this has been quietly reported on in the west, more academically than in rosalie. but the other thing that ukrainian women are selling that is of interest to the west, of course, is prostitution, which will almost certainly play in at some degree to the problems with the number of children being born as well. so according to professor brianna harris of the center for population change at the university of south hampton, u. k. she says this,

the population crisis in ukraine is multi pronged listed here. so it was declined. and because of this, what we call the triple burden, which was low for to the rates, high immigration, and relatively high mortality. all right, then you add in the war. some 7000000 people have fled, the country is refugees. population numbers are super low over a country that size if we exam and part of what she said about high mortality was actually super shop to find out that about one 3rd of ukrainians die. i mean, regardless of gender that they died before the age of 65, due to preventable causes, and that's all according to the 2021. you on report as well. why does so many ukrainians die off so young? the numbers are, of course, are skewed much higher towards men, then they are towards women. and there are, there are things multiple things that, that pay that a way into it. right?

and a lot of these phenomenon can be found and in western countries, you know, in, in europe, in the united states. but there to effect orally higher degree because of the parental, a bad economic and spiraling down social situation in ukraine since 1991. and it's expected, you know, um, alcoholism is probably the number one cause, but that plays in across multiple ways. and if you take it, such things is a automobile, fatalities, heart attacks, all of which are exacerbated by alcoholism. you, you, you know, there's definitely a connecting trend of that link. a lot that goes into this and the alcoholism is, is often directly or indirectly related to depression,

which is a function uh, quite often of the, you know, the economic well being of the country. it starts having synergistic affects just driving everything down a rush or experience this during the ninety's in the early 2, thousands. there were a mean. it was a regular phenomenon in western media and even academia to depict, to russia as a dying there. because of the for cast a, the birth rate problem, the demographic problems again with the life expectancy and everything, and russia pulled out of it. right. academic prosperity was restored, social order was restored. there were multiple programs to encourage people to have children. alcohol use went down dramatically in the country and in those smart part due to the government programs. but many people also suggest the vision of

a young, athletic, energetic presidents who drank rarely and, and responsibly if at all. so it is not impossible that ukraine could pull out of this demographic death spiral. it's not impossible, it was done, but the longer it stays in it, the much, much harder it is likely to pull out of it. i would not give them very good chances at this point, but it's not impossible. mark sambota, thank you for letting me pick your brain. mark is an international relations and security analyst, a former u. s. navy nuclear engineer and host of the real politics with marks the motor which you can find on youtube sub stack and telegram. thank you for that. thanks for having it. all right, that is going to do it for this episode of modus operandi the show that digs deep

into foreign policy and current affairs. i'm your host manila. chad. thank you for turning in. we'll see you again next time to figure out the m. o, the the

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