please. kick. start. the clock. low in welcome to crossfire i'm peter all about paradoxes contradictions and the iran is the drumbeat towards war now inevitable as the chattering classes the skies the possible date of an israeli attack on the around the u.s. military and intelligence community says iran is not developing nuclear weapons and has not demonstrated any intention to do so is this rapidly turning into another dumb war of choice. and the story. across the complex situation

surrounding iran i'm joined by patrick clawson in montreal he is the director for research at the washington institute for near east policy and senior editor of middle east quarterly and in washington we have got i got he is a professor of political science at the national defense university and in brussels we crossed to gilbert doctorow he's an independent scholar and author of great post cold war american thinkers on international relations are i gentleman this is cross talk to me and you can jump in anytime you want gilbert if i go to you first in brussels and you explain something to me the american military establishment and intelligence community says iran is not developing a nuclear weapon has no intention of doing it and then you changed or in the same page on the washington post new york times everyone's discussing when the attack is going to happen what is going on this seems to be an amazingly paradoxical situation. well i don't have a direct answer to that question but yes there is a lot of cross talk within the united states and within the foreign policy

community so i'm not particularly surprised that. the personalities or interests within the pentagon would be inconsistent in their public position now with. of the foreign journalists who have taken all the airtime till now all right ok patrick if i go to you can you do resolve this i can you square the circle for me. it's certainly ok the united states several years to get the material to make a nuclear weapon to actually make a nuclear weapon the united states only a few weeks some indications are going to the united states of the week actually making the bomb is the easy part hard part is getting the curial with which to make a bomb and iran is spend billions of dollars and twenty years now getting the material to actually make a bomb so we don't want to wait until that last week well i don't think there's

anything here but if we have the director of national intelligence james clapper says in front of congress if there is no evidence that iran is building a nuclear weapon that's the head of national intelligence i feel weeks to build a new kind of it takes a few weeks to build a nuclear weapon they don't have to make that decision until the last minute they add however spent billions of dollars building huge priscilla trees with which to make the materials that will let them make that decision when they want to make it they haven't done it yet but what they have done is violated their safeguard agreements with the i.a.e.a. ok good now do you want to jump in there go right ahead if i if i may i believe that there is no way to judge any country by intention there is no way to norwalk anybody's intentions are we have to judge visible on facts not the intentions and the facts as they have been stated wise. is that till now. has not the only kid it's organisations who are. nonproliferation seventy

i.e. port last night reports last report set out a lot twenty pages of violations by iran that's the reason why the i.a.e.a. board has repeatedly censored iran that's the reason the security council has repeatedly voted for sanctions on iran is to say that iran has to demonstrate its purely peaceful intentions that's the wording in this existence or is that it was there always i am relieved that he told them i didn't. go ahead get out because i reported by as i reported by the i.e.e.e. a good not and has not said that it enters making this up form the i.e.e.e. said you know you say you have violations it has meant it has many violations the question of violations is not making the car the question of violations is it safeguards agreement the whole point of the. dangerous things.

only if you if you are absolutely transparent and open and a iran has not been well you ransome going to let it go back to gilbert if i go back to gilbert in brussels iran's nuclear program is the most inspected program in the history of the i.a.e.a. what do you think about all of this here if i can say with you in brussels i mean if this if there's a drumbeat to worry respective of what the i.a.e.a. i i e a has to say about anything because most people say the last report was just a recycled one of the one before go ahead. so i think this is the fourth off the mark the issue has moved on the issue of relations with iran has moved on considerably from the strict strict starting point of its nuclear ambitions. you know what were side issues have become the central issue that is the economic warfare being being entered into against the. the ratcheting up of sanctions which is a certain word a certain point the quantitative element becomes

a qualitatively different relationship and becomes an exercise existential threat to iran and we're protein that point and the the the issue of its nuclear ambitions or how about has been proven has fallen from a subsidiary position and i can see that coming out in in a just peace between the the pentagon will be the top of defense and the state department because there is a significant. more significantly more. restrained pentagon under their present leadership under panetta as opposed to the war the who are you hawkish. position of the state department in the foreign policy community supporting the state department ok patrick if i go to you it seems to me that israel and iran are already at war it will just scratched. get up ok there's

news there's a problem of other. civilians are being killed scientists are being killed or diplomats are being attacked i mean this is we're going down this path right here and it seems like there is neither side really wants to step back from their brain care except for maybe obama doesn't know what to do but it is certainly a lot of other people seem of already decide on it continue down this path where we have. a blow out of one form or another hopefully not all out war because the regional implications would be immense and there are a lot of american interests in the region. as your guest in brussels was explaining why the united states and the european union and its allies have launching what is in effect an economic war against iraq saying to the iranian leadership look you can either have your nuclear weapon or you can stay in power you get the truth and the iranian leadership has to decide they can either keep their nuclear weapon or they can stay in power that's the choice that's before them and they have to make

that choice and we will see this year which of the world and i mean aren't you kind of jumping ahead here again i keep stressing here that there is no one has proven that iran is it has intentions even to build a nuclear weapon i mean i'm we're open to you know evidence here is that you know it's a pretty good idea because i mean it seems to me you're kind of railroading us down a certain path here let's keep in mind you know i'm going to be in the security council now scary council is good god if i can tell you what he wants to hear you say that i mean there is this drive to war i mean if evidence doesn't fit you know they destroy it out because war is the worst possible thing going to happen here. and this last war if wars in iraq and afghanistan taught us anything it is that it is much easier to start wars and ending and as you said it is true he said there is a law live in war going on between iran and israel and the united states president obama for is created he lives enter

a national community to pause is up office sanctions on your and it needs some time to see how it will work ok as it is nor it is very irrational toward talk of both war war. everybody will be very bad not only to an end not only to the middle east who work or oil prices are very high now because of this ok gilbert if i can go to you i think patrick kind of put it really out there very openly it's all about regime change that's what this is about it's not about the nuclear program this is the united states and its allies particularly israel want a regime change there for some reason they think it'll be better and easier barrow we don't really know i mean that changes the regime either you get the regime or the nuclear weapon you have a choice well read strange you say where are you going of your future i guess we don't have or some people have sovereignty some don't go but what do you think about this. well you summed up in the last sentence the word rational came up here and i just like to put it into

a context as to who is behaving more rationally in the sense of looking after their own interests yes america has interests in the middle east and i think kind of an attack on iran would jeopardize those interests so is america acting rationally by its very aggressive position. be iran today on the other hand we often are persuaded that the iranian leadership is irrational. and i am not persuaded to. believe that they are rational and if they are looking after their interests and only they could be only suicidal if in the context of the american positioning of troops in israel today they were to take any action that was and is an essential threat to israel. i believe the moderator has been a bit coy with respect to the reins the iranian intentions of building a nuclear device let's assume that they do ok they would be rather strange people in the context of what we've seen in iraq i would be i would absolutely agree with

you ok because if you're being threatened that's what you're going to do is to try to protect yourself patrick if i go to you i mean they had the element of rationality here i mean he's being rational and he's being irrational. well the russian government like the american government the french government and the governments of other countries in the security council are being very rational they are saying that the threat of political ration of nuclear weapons and of a nuclear arms race is such that we have to reinforce the nonproliferation treaty and its provisions which say that countries have to be fully transparent to the international atomic energy agency and when countries aren't fully transparent international atomic energy agency the security council says to that country suspend your activities until you can reassure your purely peaceful intentions we're not going to wait to the last minute we're going to reinforce the n.p.t. and then on to liberation tree by saying that i may be a international atomic energy agency safeguards have to be followed that's what the

international media said rational position worry about a nuclear arms race throughout the middle east and indeed throughout the world if countries can ignore it you know if you even hear we're getting i wish you a break and after a short break we'll continue our discussion on calls to war stay with our. world. science technology innovation all the developments around russia we've got the future coverage.

welcome back to crossfire computable remind you we're talking about whether they'll be a strike against iraq. is. still . ok get out i go back to you in washington you know before i go i went into television and journalism i was an academic historian and over modern european history and i can remember reading because i wasn't alive at the time of the hysteria that the united states had about the soviet union acquiring a nuclear weapon i remember the hysteria of the united states when when china was acquiring a nuclear weapon and you know what they've never gone to war with each other deterrence works ok so again i was all agree with bill but what if you know iran were to acquire a nuclear weapon it certainly being threatened by the west right now would it to use it. but i am very glad you is this point because i believe it is very

reassessed who says that the only western powers can decide who is a national and who is. it is true that there the un has not started a new war for at least a hundred and fifty years and is there any ns like anybody else they are not crazy they will. seal what is in their best interest and try to do it and if you end migs are warm and this is not proven in any way they are not likely to use it because one or two ones will not be this the top is that are you lot of tonight are states is the e.u. has more than two hundred nuclear weapons as a iranians nor as their limits and they iranians will not that their israel all saw the foreign minister of britain talk about if you had an example

egypt turkey saudi arabia and other countries might try to do is assume this is also on because egypt is in no position to make more mel after arab spring saudi arabia does not have the infrastructure so or is it is a lot of misunderstanding misleading statements about it n. and if you don't mix up are ok give or what do you think when we are overlooking the going to run in brussels go ahead but nobody has heard of word about israel and those requests remarkable that. we're speaking of bricks from the reasonably about the dangers of proliferation without mentioning the fact of the nuclear file i have in front of me. the lesson is true of foreign affairs magazine which has a title which speaks for itself this is time to attack iran. coming from the single most authoritative. journal of the us foreign policy community that sums

up the overwhelming position of the community and here the same time in the online edition of foreign affairs we do see heterodox country views which dispute that which suggests. that even a nuclear iran could be acceptable and could be worked with the issue that i want to bring out is a debate in the united states foreign policy community is a long one line only and that is can we do it it is based on efficacy it has north totally the question of should we do it or what would the consequences be of doing it in place to take out a nuclear capability of iran do you think about that patrick i mean you know one of the thing so you know we have seen we have a disaster in iraq we have a quagmire in afghanistan and libya is a mess i mean how when he signaled the law of unintended consequences going to be taken into consideration ok stryker rand what are the implications are going to be cleaning easy what do you think. well

what we have seen is the israelis been using covert assassinations and cyber war against iran and it slowed down iran's nuclear program so we'd like to remind you and i'd like to remind my viewers on saturday i'd like to remind my viewers that iran has the right to develop nuclear power for civilian use it has a right to a nuclear program i mean every so we have said there was no memory go ahead has its right rights come with obligations that has rights and responsibilities it only can exercise those rights within the framework of its responsibilities under the international treaties it's signed and it's precisely that's the problem is iran wants to have the rights without the responsibilities of being open and transparent to the international atomic energy agency inspectors that's why the international community including the russian government every people who voted for sanctions on iraq rights come with responsibilities and because the wrong has been irrational about not living up to its responsibilities there is concern that iran will be

irrational again if it gets to have nuclear weapons and that's why there is a lot of concern about what would happen if you're wrong these nuclear weapons the unintended consequences of a nuclear armed iran are in many people's minds much worse than the unintended consequences that could come from attacking iran if it refuses to have a diplomatic compromise but ok. ok get out i was the guy was going to go to you because you know actually iran certainly not a threat to the united states ok it's israel that wants the attack here so if if if the united states and israel are involved in attacking around how does that serve american foreign policy interests it's geopolitical interests and i see only downside ok go ahead. yes this will not serve the american interest and that is a great concern among the american office shows that israel will start war specially before the elections when this administration can do very little and then

the united states will be ends up with a shunt to enzo always have nor as an option but to ends a war united states does not want to or start another war with another muslim country in the middle east and then instead of talking about war there are other options engaging gear and accepting its limited lucian and the doing business with it and considering it and like any other country and just invests in it endlessly who is here and this probably will have better options than war ok goober what do you think about that because it it really does get down to the israeli angle here the israelis want to maintain their regional supremacy here and any country that challenges that is going to be deemed a threat to demonize the new hitler eccentric cetera. yes but the american involvement in

a rainy and agenda predates the nuclear issue by far we take this all the way back to the origins of the iranian revolution the united states was actively conducting economic warfare against iran in the one nine hundred ninety s. will before there was any end of the nuclear threat so what we're talking about today is an acute stage. of an issue that has a long chronic history behind it is this a rational policy is it i believe it's emblematic of us foreign policy in so far as it does not correspond to the interests of america as a country is it corresponds to the interests of the foreign policy community which is extremely self important ok do you think about that i mean i guess i mean why why is the united states so obsessed with with this with iran because the it goes back to the revolution doesn't it i mean we've had this we've seen the same reason

for not only since israel started pointed out to me i mean it was a united states was helping the development i'm trying to the power and. china has voted repeated me in favor of sanctions china and russia i voted repeated lee in favor of sanctions against iran at the united nations the times because nation you trying to they're not part of the game but they're not part of this discussion of attacking iran that's a very different a good heart a very dear friend or sasha to do they know they are it's a conversation about iran's nuclear program you're the one saying there's not a problem the russian and chinese government's disagree with you they think there's a problem. or is these two separate we know you've only ever at the united nations security council discussed are going you know games are just now if iran and the us once ever you talking about there's no problem with being a rainy and nuclear program the russian and chinese government see a problem there's a reason why the international community as a whole sees a problem with the arena. nuclear program it has to do with the interest of the

international community in stopping but at the same time they're not promoting a war agenda against iran that's a very different conversation for a primary operation we're going to go ahead and. we are talking about the end as an american citizen and i would feel. if iran has one then pakistan was appalled that pakistan is becoming very much ghost or feel this state is a good idea at least as our government is in charge and. again comparing it and pakistan in new credit and will be there it is then you cross back a step ok do you do you think that the double standards have an implied here when it comes to political ration because again we have a there is a country in the middle east that has up to two hundred nuclear warheads and that's israel and it's never been investigated inspected by the i.a.e.a. it doesn't even admit to having a program. the small change of diplomacy so i don't think it's particularly

shocking to see you talk recently here. yes there are double standards that's probably true ok patrick what do you think about that why don't we just have an eye i'm nuclear free middle east everybody signs up to it i'll countries. what a nuclear free world why doesn't want to start somewhere and let's start somewhere give up its nuclear weapons why not let's start with russia why not start with russia if you want to start with uniting slavery things are united states that's values to obama's address because that's why he's proposing buna lateral cuts in u.s. nuclear arsenals mr obama has been opposed to pollute for asian everywhere and he wants to move towards nuclear zero as it's called getting rid of nuclear weapons that's one of the reasons he's so opposed to proliferation is he would like to see the world move away from nuclear weapons and i agree there's a double standard eight countries have nuclear weapons and those countries have should move towards a new can do zero it's going to be a long slow process but let's move in that direction together as

a group meanwhile let's reinforce our efforts against proliferation that's why the focus on iran because the concern about proliferation ok good i'm going to give you the last word in this program what's next a cure i agree is that there is not it is racist to as you said this is that i.e. is that americans are great is the french are more rational than their plans they iranians israel will not be a secure unless it is accepted by its me it was more a new car weapons more arms are not the right way to make peace the right way is for people to. do business together at least together learn from each other and stop fighting stop autumn's that he says you know unfortunate looks like leave the drumbeat to war he still will continue many thanks to my guest today in washington montreal and in brussels and thanks our viewers for watching us here at the see you next time and remember just awful.

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