here are headlines for us the births of all the strings on the syrian conflict for possibly arming the rebels the rocket mendota privately no chance before in across the street until the. spanish police laid into teachers and students and the result there is no heat in their classrooms thing stops early cuts and a major credit rating agency downgrades rican debt again saying i default is all but unavoidable. and iran's nuclear program must be targeted with a military strike at least that's the reported view of israeli intelligence following a un inspection the failed to result the deadlock. will rising pressure on iran finally explode into a military attack that's the question peter lavelle puts to his guests today in today's cross talk that's up next on our team.

well the british science. market why not. find out what's really happening to the global economy in the cause of a large minority. welcome to crossfire by mutual paradoxes contradictions and irrational is the drumbeat towards war now inevitable as the chattering classes discuss the possible dangers of israeli attack on iran the us military and intelligence community says iran is not developing if you will weapons has not demonstrated any intention to do so is this rapidly turning into another dumb war of choice.

across the complex situation surrounding iran i'm joined by patrick clawson in montreal he is the director for research at the washington institute for near east policy and senior editor of middle east quarterly and in washington we have got out by god he is a professor of political science at the national defense university and in brussels we crossed to gilbert doctorow he's an independent scholar and author of great post cold war american thinkers on international relations all right gentlemen this is cross talk means you can jump in anytime you want gilbert if i go to you first in brussels can you explain something to me the american military establishment and intelligence community says iran is not developing a nuclear weapon has no intention of doing it and then changed or in the same page in the washington post new york times everyone's discussing when the attack is going to happen what is going on this seems to be an amazingly paradoxical situation. well i don't have a direct answer to that question but yes there is

a lot of crosstalk within the united states and within the foreign policy community so i'm not particularly surprised that. the personalities or interests within the pentagon would be inconsistent in their public position now with. the positions of the foreign policy analysts who have taken all the airtime till now all right ok patrick if i can go to you can you do resolve this so i can you square the circle for me. it's certainly ok the united states several years to get the material to make a nuclear weapon to actually make a nuclear weapon the united states only a few weeks some indications are only united states week actually making a bomb is the easy part the hard part is getting material with which to make a bomb and iran has spent billions of dollars and twenty years now getting the

material to actually make a bomb so we don't want to wait until that last week well we say i don't think there's anything here but if we have the director of national intelligence james clapper says in front of congress if there is no evidence that iran is building a nuclear weapon that's the head of national intelligence a few weeks to build a nuclear it takes a few weeks to build a nuclear weapon they don't have to make that decision until the last minute they have all ever spent billions of dollars building huge facilities with which to make the materials that will let them make that decision when they want to make it they haven't done it yet but what they have done is violated their safeguard agreements with the i.a.e.a. ok good now do you want to jump in there if i if i may. i believe there is no way to judge any country in my intention there is no way to norwalk anybody's intentions are we have to george because go on facts not the intentions and the facts as they have been stated wise. is that till now.

has not the only good it's organizations toward. nonproliferation so he i.e. the court last night reports last report said out twenty pages of violations by iran that's the reason why the i.a.e.a. board has repeatedly censored iran that's the reason the security council has repeatedly voted for sanctions on iran is to say that iran has to demonstrate its purely peaceful intentions that's the wording in this existence or as a result of that always i.e. really that horrible event. go ahead get out because i reported by the report by the i.e.e.e. a good not and has not said that it in his makings up on the i.e.e.e. said so you're saying he didn't say how violations it has meant it has many violations the question of violations is not making the bar the question of violations is it safeguards agreement the whole point of the. speech now do

dangerous things. only if you if you are absolutely transparent and open and a iran has not been well iran's and if you want to go back to gilberto if i go back to gilbert in brussels iran's nuclear program is the most inspected program in the history of the i.a.e.a. what do you think about all of this here gilbert if i can say with you in brussels i mean if this if there's a drumbeat to worry irrespective of what the i.e.e.e. i i a e a has to say about anything because most people say the last report was just a recycled one of the one before go ahead. but i think this is of off the mark the issue has moved on the issue of relations with iran has moved on considerably from this district starting point of its nuclear ambitions. you know what were side issues have become the central issue that is the economic warfare being being entered into against the iran the ratcheting up of sanctions which with

a certain word a certain point the quantitative elements becomes a qualitatively different relationship and becomes an exercise existential threat to iran and we're approaching that point and the the issue of its nuclear ambitions or how about has been proven has fallen into a subsidiary position i could see that coming out in in a just few days between the the pentagon will be and the proper defense and the state department because there is a significant. more significantly more. restrained pentagon under the present leadership and under panetta as opposed to the war the who are you hawkish. position in the state department and the foreign policy community supporting the state department ok patrick if i go to you it seems

to me that israel and iran are already at war it will just scratched. ok there's there's there's probably and other. civilians are being killed scientists are being killed or diplomats are being attacked i mean this is we're going down this path right here and it seems like there is neither side really wants to step back from the brain care except for maybe obama doesn't know what to do but it is certainly a lot of other people seem to of already decided that they want to continue down this path where we have a major blow out of one form or another hopefully not all out war because the regional implications would be immense and there are a lot of american interests in the region. well indeed as your guest in brussels was explaining the united states and the european union and its allies have launching what is in effect an economic war against iraq saying to the iranian leadership look you can either have your nuclear weapon or you can stay in power you get to choose and the iranian leadership has to decide they can either keep

their nuclear weapon or they can stay in power that's the choice that's before them and they have to make that choice and we will see this year which it was and i mean aren't you kind of jumping ahead here again i keep stressing here that there is there's no one has proven that iran is it has intentions even to build a nuclear weapon i mean i'm more open to you know evidence here is that you know it's a really good idea because i mean it seems to me you're kind of railroading us down a certain path here let's keep in mind you know i'm going to be in the security council you know security council is a good idea if i can tell you what he wants to hear you say that i mean there is this drive to war i mean if the evidence doesn't fit you know they just roll it out because i wore is the worst possible thing going to happen here. and this last war if as our wars in iraq and afghanistan taught us anything it is that it is much easier to start wars and ending and as you said it is true there is a law live in war going on between iran and israel and the united states president

obama for his created heel is international community to cause the path this sanctions on iran and they need some time to see how it will work ok and there is no it is very irrational toward the talk of old war war. everybody will be very bad not only to end not only to the middle east all who were or oil prices are pretty high now because of the us ok gilbert if i can go to you i think patrick kind of put it really out there very openly it's all about regime change that's what this is about it's not about the nuclear program the united states and its allies particularly israel want a regime change there for some reason they think you'll know you'll be able to interact with the better we are you know i mean that changes the regime you get the regime or the nuclear weapon you have a choice well it's really strange you say well you go over to your picture i guess we don't have or some people have sovereignty from don't go but what do you think

about this. well you summed up in the last sentence the word rational came up here and i'd like to put it into a context as to who is behaving more rationally in the sense of looking after their own interests yes america has interests in the middle east and i think i'm a commie ron would jeopardize those interests so is america acting rationally by its very aggressive position these are the wrong today on the other hand we often are persuaded that the iranian leadership is irrational. and i am not persuaded to . believe that they are rational and they are looking after their interests and only they could be only suicidal if in the context of the american positioning of troops in israel today they were to take any action that was and an essential threat to israel. believe the moderator has been a bit coy with respect to the reins the iranian intentions of building a nuclear device let's assume that they do ok they would be rather strange people

in the context of what we've seen in iraq i would be i would absolutely agree with you ok because if you're being threatened that's what you're going to do is to try to protect yourself patrick i know to you i mean the as the element of rationality here i mean he's being rational and he's being irrational well the russian government like the american government the french government and the governments of other countries in the security council are being very rational they are saying that the threat of political ration of nuclear weapons and of a nuclear arms race is such that we have to reinforce the nonproliferation treaty and its provisions which say that countries have to be fully transparent to the international atomic energy agency and when countries aren't fully transparent international atomic energy agency the security council says to back country suspend your activities until you can reassure your purely peaceful intentions we're not going to wait to the last minute we're going to reinforce the n.p.t. the nonproliferation treaty by saying. i am

a international atomic energy agency safeguards have to be followed that's what the international media said russian position worry about a nuclear arms race throughout the middle east and indeed throughout the world if countries can ignore the jump in here with me i was short break after a short break we'll continue our discussion on the call so war state park. east so. please. please. the news. as the best seller

lists . subsists six. six. six. six. today collins says it's a game played out see. him in his cold. streets of canada past struggling. subsists.

see. the sun. looks. welcome back to. remind you we're talking about when there will be a strike against you at super. super. ok good night and i to go back to you in washington you know before i go into television and journalism i was an academic historian and of a modern european history and i can remember reading because i wasn't alive at the time of the hysteria that the united states had about the soviet union acquiring

a nuclear weapon and i remember the hysteria of the united states when when china was acquiring a nuclear weapon and you know what they have never gone to war with each other deterrence works ok so again i agree with gilbert what if you know iran were to acquire a nuclear weapon it's certainly being threatened by the west right now we need to use it. but i'm very glad you is this point because i believe it is very clear sis to say that the only western powers can decide who is a national and who is. it is true there iran has not started any war for at least a hundred and fifty years and is a iranians like anybody else they are not crazy they will. seal lot that is in their best interest and try to do it and if you have n. make the bomb and this is not proven in any way they are not likely to use it because one or two ones will not these poor is that are you or tonight are states

is the e.u. has more than two hundred nuclear weapons as a iranians nor there are limits and they only ns will not that their israel all saw the foreign minister of britain talk about if you know in the example egypt turkey saudi arabia and other countries might try to do is a c.m. this is also wrong because egypt is in no position to make more now after arab spring saudi arabia does not have the infrastructure so or is it is a lot of misunderstanding misleading statements about what you know n. and if you end makes up ok given what do you think when we are overlooking the golden corral here in brussels go ahead but nobody has said a word about israel and that's really quite remarkable the trick we're speaking of bricks really reasonably about the dangers of proliferation without mentioning the

fact of the road use of nuclear power in the region but i have in front of me the the worst issue of foreign affairs and i guess in which i was a total which speaks for itself and this is time to attack iran. coming from the single most authoritative. journal of the us foreign policy community that. sums up the overwhelming position of the community and here the same time in the online edition of foreign affairs we do see heterodox country views which dispute that and which suggests. that even a nuclear iran could be acceptable and could be worked with the issue that i want to bring out is the debate in the united states foreign policy community is a long one line only and that is can we do it it is based on efficacy it has north totally the question of should we do it or what would the consequences be of doing it place to take out a nuclear capability of iran do you think about that patrick i mean you know one of

the things that we have seen we have a disaster in iraq we have a quagmire in afghanistan and libya is a mess i mean how when is it going to the law of unintended consequences going to be taken into consideration ok strike iran what are the implications are going to be cleaning easy do you think. well what we have seen is the israelis been using covert assassinations and cyber war against iran and it slowed down iran's nuclear program so we have a reminder and i'd like to remind my viewers on saturday i'd like to remind my viewers that iran has the right to develop nuclear power for civilian use it has a right to a nuclear program i mean every so we have to remember this it would go ahead has its right rights come with obligations so it has rights and responsibilities it only can exercise those rights within the framework of its responsibilities under the international treaties it's signed and it's precisely that's the problem is

iran wants to have the rights without the responsibilities of being open and transparent to the international atomic energy agency inspectors that's why the international community including the russian government every people who voted for sanctions on iraq rights come with responsibilities and because iraq has been irrational about not living up to its responsibilities there is concern that iran will be irrational again if it gets to have nuclear weapons and that's why there is a lot of concern about what would happen if you're wrong caught these nuclear weapons the unintended consequences of a nuclear armed iran are in many people's minds much worse than the unintended consequences that could come from attacking iran if it refuses to have a diplomatic compromise but getting ready to compromise me. ok get that i was the guy was going to go to you because you know actually iran certainly not a threat to the united states ok it's israel that wants the attack here so if if if

the united states and israel are involved in attacking around how does that serve american foreign policy interests its geopolitical interests i see only downside ok go ahead. yes this will not serve the american interest and that is a great concern among american officials that israel will start war especially before the elections when this administration can do very little and then the united states will be ends up with a shunt to in zot all have nor as an option but to ends a war you like this does not want thought start another war with another muslim country in the middle east and then instead of talking about war there are other options engaging gear and accepting it's limited lucian and the doing business with iran considering again like any other country and just invests in it endlessly who is here and this probably will have better options than war

ok gilbert what do you think about that because it it really does get down to the israeli angle here the israelis want you can fit more maintain their regional supremacy here in any country the challenge is that is going to be deemed a threat to demonize the new hitler eccentric cetera. yes with the american involvement. and rainy and agenda predates the nuclear issue by far it's all the way through the origins of uranium revolution and the united states was actively conducting economic warfare against iran in the one nine hundred ninety s. well before there was any hint of the nuclear threat so we're looking at today is an acute stage. of an issue that has a long chronic history behind it is this a rational policy is it i believe it's a noble emblematic of us foreign policy in so far as it does not correspond to the

interests of america as a country is it corresponds to the interests of the foreign policy community which is extremely self-important. tragically do you think about that i mean again i mean why why is the united states so obsessed with this with iran because the it goes back to the revolution doesn't it i mean we've had this we've seen the salaries and certainly since israel started pointed out to me i mean it was a united states was helping iran develop money and trying to their power and. china has voted repeatedly in favor of sanctions china and russia i voted repeated lee in favor of sanctions against iran at the united nations but times are you trying to they're not part of their game but the but they're not part of this discussion of attacking iran that's a very different part of a very different outcome or sasha to do and they know they are it's the conversation about iran's nuclear program you're the one you think there's not a problem the russian and chinese government's disagree with you they think there's a problem here. or is it too frayed we know you've only ever at the united nations

security council discussed going you know games are just now he's already in the us and once ever u.k. talking about there's no problem with the iranian nuclear program the russian and chinese government see a problem there's a reason why the international community as a whole sees a problem with the arena. the kind of program that has to do with the interest of the international community in stopping it but at the same time they're not promoting a war agenda against iran that's a very different conversation for a primary racial we're going to be men are going. we are talking about the end as an american citizen and i would feel this if we are in has pakistan was a pakistan is becoming very much close to or feel this state is a good idea at least as our government is in charge and. again putting it in and pakistan new credit and will be there it is then pakistan

ok do you think that have double standards even implied here when it comes to pollute for a should because again we have a there is a country in the middle east that has up to two hundred nuclear warheads and that's israel and it's never been investigated inspected by the i.a.e.a. it isn't even admit to having a program of hypocrisy is the small change of the flow mostly so i don't think it's particularly shocking to see you talk recently here. yes there are double standards that's patently true ok patrick what do you think about that why don't we just have a no nuclear free middle east everybody signs up to it all countries. what a nuclear free world why doesn't well it starts somewhere and let's start something or give up its nuclear weapons why not let's start with russia why not start with russia if you want to start with the united states of the things our united states . that i mr obama's address is that's why he's proposing unilateral cuts in u.s. nuclear arsenals mr obama has been opposed to pollute ration everywhere and he

wants to move towards nuclear zero as it's called getting rid of nuclear weapons that's one of the reasons he's so opposed to pollute fraîche and is he would like to see the world move away from nuclear weapons and i agree there's a double standard eight countries have nuclear weapons and those countries have should move towards and you can do zero it's going to be a long slow process but let's move in that direction together as a group and meanwhile let's reinforce our efforts against proliferation that's why the focus on iran because the concern about proliferation ok good i'm going to give you the last word in this program what's next i think you're i believe they are he is and there is an obvious sundered and it is racist to assume there is a zoe is that americans are pretty is the french are more rational than their plans a iranians is that you will not be a secure unless it is accepted by its new it was more a new crowd weapons more arms are not the right way to make peace the right way is

for people to. do business together at least together a little from each other and stop fighting scope arms that he says you know unfortunate looks like feed the drumbeat to war is still will continue many thanks to my guest today in washington montreal and in brussels and thanks our viewers for watching us here see you next time remember last time.

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u.s. prepares to pull the strings of the syrian conflict by possibly the rebels in iraq and its weapons and al-qaeda minutes and so already pouring across its shared border live analysis on the bottom.