okay. here we go. it is midnight here in new york city, 9:00 p.m. out on the west coast i am jen psaki msnbc's special coverage of super tuesday. i have some of my favorite people, as always, the midnight shift is the best shift as i like to say, to talk to here at the big table to break down everything that happened today. we will learn more tonight, too and we do have a lot to talk about because results from 16 states and one territory, don't forget that one, just brought us one big step closer to a rematch between resident joe biden and donald trump. as of this moment, on the republican side, trump has unsurprisingly won a bunch of state so far. bringing his total number of delegates over 100, not enough to clinch the nomination but it is making it nearly impossible

if not impossible for nikki haley to do that. so we just take a second to look at from by the numbers, just to catch everybody up here, that is four indictments, 91 criminal charges, to impeachments. 911 delegates as of today. on the democratic side, president biden has slept every state so far, bringing to an overall total of 1400 delegates . he did lose the caucus in america samoa but i think you will survive. to jp, there's two jp is here. neither republican is not about trump or biden, but about nikki haley, and how much longer she lanced to stick around in this race. for what it is worth, haley is projected to win the state of vermont, that is her second win about washington, d.c. over the weekend but in most of the other primaries today, she really didn't do anything to

expand her share of the vote in any meaningful way just in the last half hour the haley campaign released a statement saying we are honored to have received through support of millions of americans across the country today including in vermont. today it is state after state, there remains a large lockup republican primary voters who are expressing concerns about donald trump. that is not the unity our party needs for success. haley is reportedly watching results for behind closed doors with no plans and no scheduled events in the upcoming days that is exactly paint the picture of a thriving campaign of momentum to me, just to lay it all out for you. but for now, she is technically still in it. we will of course bring any changes on that front, anything we learn out there as we have them. and maybe if nikki haley is not long for this race, her presence on the ballot tonight once again showed real cracks in the arms of the election campaign. we will dive into some exit polls over the next hour. the

next two hours, as well. as for donald trump, he spoke tonight, he gave a very low energy speech tonight, i think it is fair to say, lying about his record on the economy and covid and a completely fact free rant about immigration. is basically normal trump victory speech sort of stuff but tonight we are not just following the race for the white house there is also a whole lot of action. a lot of interesting action notably in california. polls in the state highly contested senate race disclosed last hour. nbc news predicted that democratic caucus in adam schiff and former baseball player, steve garvey, will advance to the general election in november. america is about to learn a whole lot about a guy named mark robinson after he won the republican primary in north carolina's race for governor. robinson is a holocaust denier, he is called fiance satanic and he said the acceptance of homosexuality will lead to court, the end of civilization as we know it is a good guy. i promise i could go on, there's a lot more and i could

go on later in the show. the state's attorney general won in north carolina. so that sets the stage for north carolina to be a big state come november. it sets the stage to be a showdown between someone who represents stability and someone who represents extremism, which probably sounds pretty familiar to you. there is clearly a lot happening in the top to the bottom of the tickets all across the country. for the next two hours we will unpack what we know tonight, what we may still learn tonight and what this all means for tomorrow. of course, in november of 2024. the panel is going to join me in just a moment they are all here with a lot to say. let's get right to steve kerr neck yet the big board. let's start with the overall picture of the night and i want to ask you about the race in california that is a biggie that we just learned about in the last hour. >> overall come you can see these delegate numbers are changing even the last couple of minutes. trump getting an extra one there, 636 delegates for donald trump tonight to 37 for nikki

haley. there are still a lot to be allocated in texas. let me show you for donald trump is leading 62 point in haley's barely cracking 50% of the vote so trump will get a bunch more delegates. there are a number of states here that he is already winning handily but he will get more delegates from. that means he is on track right now to finish well over 1000 delegates tonight. i think approaching potentially 1100 delegates. and if you just look at these results and fast forward a week, you have georgia, when you have mississippi, when you got washington, when you got a caucus, the key word there because trump has been doing very well in caucuses. trump, right now, is getting what he needs tonight to have a very very real chance of crossing the 1215 threshold to formally claim the nomination next week. again, this is by racking up massive massive wins. look at alabama he is going to get all 40 delegates from

alabama. 70 point mark. we all expected him to win alabama but a 70 point margin, i'm not sure we were expecting that. tennessee, haley still hasn't cracked 20% here with only about 20% of the votes still to come in even what was supposed to be potentially strong states for nikki haley. take a look at virginia, she is losing at a 2-1 margin there, only about 35% of the vote what would happen to her in north carolina tonight, she losing by more than 50 points, all the vote counted in north carolina, she does pick up a victory in vermont. a very small state and frankly, a demographic outlay or in the republican primary. so what this all kind of sets the stage for is what decision will she make in the coming days , whether to stay in this race or not. one thing i think she has to consider is the talking point that she has been using on the campaign trail. she calls it the 40% of the idea that this is based on her showing in new hampshire, based on her showing in south carolina that there is 40%, a sizable nordy of the republican

electorate that just doesn't want donald trump. that is what her rhetoric has been around. you are seeing a 40% in these results today. last time we checked in with the cumulative result just add up all the primaries and caucuses and share the vote is haley getting? i showed you she is barely over 15 she is getting 23% that number may come down a tick or two because there still a vote coming in in texas and that is really dragging the number down to california she is running under that 23% total so that number may come down. she might regain half of 40% in these contests and again, getting absolutely well under 20% so does raise the possibility here where voters in the republican side who initially were casting ballots for haley, and the subsequent state have looked at this and said all right it is time to get on board with donald trump. might that be happening here? is there also a benefit that haley was receiving in the early primaries from crossover voters, independence, new hampshire, independence and

south carolina who were really enthused in those states to come into the republican party where the rules allowed it and to vote against donald trump and are we not seeing it in those numbers tonight? when you look in a result like a state like virginia which, on paper, even more potential for haley in south carolina day point but how short she falls there even in the very for the state demographic. minnesota on a per look at a friendly state for nikki haley. she hasn't even cracked 30% there in the most, graphically friendly state here was colorado. half the electorate, white college educated, that is the group she is in the best with she gets a third of the vote in colorado. so there really has been a pretty significant drop off in the demographics that haley was appealing to in those early states and what they are delivering for her in the subsequent states. does she want to be in this race a week from now? based on these results, collecting 15, 20% of the vote, is donald trump potentially crosses that 1215 delegate threshold it officially becomes the nominee. obviously have no insight but i think that is the nature of the

dilemma she is facing is coming out of tonight she can't be pointing anymore to a 40% of the republican primary vote. that is not going to trump, that number comes way way down today. >> at a certain point, steve, the data and the numbers do tell the story and make a reality clear for nikki haley. so before we let you go, talk to us about the california senate race. garvey didn't really campaign that much. he really kind of searched, i am saying not that much. that is a very generous thing i am saying here. he really searched, it seems, in the recent weeks. so how did this all happen? what does this tell us, if anything, about the general election it seems schiff is in a pretty good spot here. >> we know that california is a very blue state that there are republicans in california. i think what happened in the last couple of weeks as the republicans realized there really is kind of one republican candidate in this race, it is steve garvey pics of the republicans who turned out today did check off, it appears, steve garvey's name. kind of has the field to himself. overall in california, the

republican vote didn't get too far but in a four way hotly contested open primary, if you can corral just the republican vote is going to be more than enough to get you into the top two so that is how garvey gets this position certainly could talk about the assistance he received from adam schiff and his strategy of actually running ads that really exposed steve garvey to his name. but shift, as well. the other story here is we suspected, just based on the polling, the ship had a real good chance of walking down one of those top two spots. the polling wasn't indicating quite this, better than 2-1 margin here over katie order point she is the next best democrat. she is under 14, schiff is all 737 and you go even further down the bar really, the congresswoman from the bay area, she is at 7% with more than 40% of the vote count statewide. some more of that democratic vote really did coalesce behind schiff. seemingly in the final days of this campaign. and there is a much much clearer

divide between these top two and the rest of the field but in terms of the general election, just incredibly deep blue state. nobody doesn't think that joe biden is going to carry california by a wide margin. just by dint of that because what ticket voting has almost completely disappeared in the trump era. the only candidate, the only senate candidate to win in 2016 in a state that the other party won, susan collins in maine in 2020. so certainly that is expectation in california, 37% warship 15%, that is 52% democratic, 7% for labor, a 60% democratic vote just right there between those three candidates. so that 29% for garvey, when you combine those democratic votes, suddenly it gets, it falls behind pretty quickly. >> it feels a little bit of decline for steve garvey with baseball and some good hair. thank you so much as always for joining me now is an all star panel expert. spokesperson for vice president

kamala harris, now, most of the weekend simone sanders townsend, former communications director for president barack obama, former communications for jeb bush's 2016 campaign and now host of the bulwark podcast, tim miller and former democratic senator from the jury , claire mccaskill. i just want to start here. i just read part of haley statement a little bit earlier. but a line i left out, i saved for all of you, is what i feel is, i don't know if it is trolling, if it is smart. donald trump gave a speech tonight that was low-energy, as i just said, although this will be his biggest speech of the year, probably. i'm not sure why he didn't have a coke or something beforehand. he said in there, unity will have a weekly unity will happen in really have anything nice to say about nikki haley. unity is not achieving simply claiming we are united. nikki haley is still in it for

now. but let me start with you, claire mccaskill, because you're going to be up for morning joe so we don't have you for that long tell me about, let's start with haley and trump here because there were also some numbers in here that made it clear that trump still hasn't quite united his party at all, to put it generously, again. what was your takeaways from the republican side of the primary tonight? >> i get tired of the focus on uncommitted voters and biden has a problem in his party, because listen, i think it is fine, people want to express their opinion in this primary process but if you look at the numbers today, donald trump failed to get a 70 point margin , except in one state, and that was alabama. joe biden got more than a 70 point margin in every single state that two, 80% of the vote, 85%, 88% our party is

pretty united. it really is. and another time, another day, we will talk about third-party threats, which i think is a real thing. but they have got a war going on in their party. and nikki haley knows it now, donald trump owes the party, donald trump is going to be the nominee but there are people that, in fact, i might know a guy sitting next to me, that to say he was a republican and he now realizes that he is not a donald trump republican and there is a bunch of those folks out there that i think joe biden can get. click it rhymes with kim, tim miller, great to see you. i know this is your prime time so tell us i think one of the questions we are all asking ourselves is what is nikki haley want? what is her goal here? >> okay, that is a psychological question. but i'm not a therapist. >> give us a strategic answer. what is the conversations she is having with her closest advisers >> this is the question what does she want to do with her life, i think it's really the

question. she is not going to win this primary. i appreciate there is a war going on in the primary but it is pretty lopsided. she is getting defeated handily tonight and she didn't good on you, vermont. so she is not coming back in 2028 and i am 90% sure that nikki haley knows that. i am 90% sure she knows that but this is not her party and it is not going to be her party next time. so what she does now is more about what she >> maga is not going away before 2028? it seems like there is no signs of that. >> mag is not going away and even if it does kind of go away they're not going to personally challenge trump, that is the old bush party, they are looking for a fusion candidate she is not going to be a vp so she is not making a political decision. she is trying to decide who i want to be the leader of this kind of faction of a traditional whatever you want to call it, compassionate conservative republican party? i want to take on donald trump? do i want to run third-party? you mentioned that. those are her options.

>> do i want to be on boards and not be in politics? >> do i want to go back to sullivan island and beyond zoom and hanging out or do i want to have tv cameras in front of me. that is why this is psychological. it is not a strategic question, the strategy is over. she got wiped out tonight. and so good on her. i hope she stays there and keeps taking the fight to trump and doesn't endorse him and galvanizes the wall street journal republicans and says you can still get, you can still have a good stock market and not have an autocratic fascism. i hope that she is out there doing that. we would love for that to happen. >> a lot of the big money people are with her. it is whether they go and he needs money, he has kind of got a money problem. there is a lot of cause professionals happening over here. there's a lot of comms people. a lot of comms superpowers. so you both advised presidential candidates, including candidates who didn't necessarily win. we have all been there. we have all been there. clearly we have been there really --

>> nothing on me. >> this is true. >> there is no president sanders or president clinton, we are all here together. so this is a night. this is a night, as tim said, where it is psychological. it is hard to drop out of a presidential race. what are those conversations like books and if you get to the point with nikki haley that it is time to drop out, because the numbers are not there, i think we all know that, what are you advising her? give a speech tomorrow, wait a week? wait two weeks? keep fighting? >> i don't know about you but for me it was very telling that it was a spokesperson that put up this statement and not nikki haley. it was very telling that they had no plans to be seen tonight and she has nothing on her schedule for the foreseeable future. so for me that says the conversations are, they were waiting to have the real conversations after super tuesday and the next couple of days, they had this for the conversations will happen and

then she is smart and she decides she is going to drop out, she picks a sunday show stage somewhere to do it where she will actually get eyeballs for all the things that she is saying and at least control a narrative for one day or one morning. >> there was one more sentence in that statement >> sorry, we didn't mean, i got that one sentence. >> this is, okay, she says this is not unity our party needs for success. addressing those voters concerns will make the republican party and america better. so is that a ransom? what if she, what is she asking for, addressing those voters concerns. so i wonder if they are thinking that she, is she thinking okay, i am going to say the party needs to do something or ask for something but that seems to suggest the beginning of an exit strategy. >> it seems like it. >> but just on the personal point. it is hard to end a

presidential campaign because the private jet goes away. and all the staff go away and there is not tv cameras following you around and all of a sudden you have to figure out the bills that have piled up, the laundry you need to do and the kids going to school. it all goes away and that is a very hard thing to walk away from particularly when she's got the future that tim laid out which is really not much of a future, certainly not one that you can map out in a conventional way. >> can i say one point about nikki haley. you can only demand things if you have leverage and hear, i thought it was a good comms strategy. they themselves probably knew it was a shot in the dark. hitting 40% tonight but you know what? you live on your talking points until you got to change them. that is all she has got. there is a bit inches that didn't support trump. >> exactly. so it holds. and some are, but

where are their delegates? actually what is your actual leverage, the leverage right now that she is talking about is theoretical it is wrapped up in these percentages, you've got to get steve were knocking to come up with a big board appointed to people. you need something tangible to point to to have your leverage to go in and try to demand things. so if that is in fact a ransom note, it is loose. >> if it is a ransom you need to negotiate. i am mixing analogies. so we are not waiving magic wand on what nikki haley could do here. i heard you make a point earlier about how she basically has said she does not want trump to be president in no other words, sometimes she says maybe she is open to it. she says a lot of things. if you were to wave a magic wand, what could nikki haley do? is it endorse joe biden? what can she do that would be useful? in this race? >> that would be useful. >> she is probably not going to do that. >> i don't think she is going to do that. all depends on whether nikki

haley is worried about her legacy politically because she has no political future. her political life is over. unless she decides to change parties and run in a state where a democrat can get elected to something. you know, i don't think she has a future in the republican party. so does she want to make money? i tell you what, if she endorses trump, then really, i don't think she has much credibility left. because then what really does she stand for? nothing. absolutely freaking nothing. >> we got to take a break. hold the stock, we will come right back to it. we have to be up early, thank you for joining us and sticking around, really appreciate it. everyone else is sticking around. standing by, he won a big senate primary in the great state of texas tonight and has earned the right to take on senator

ted cruz in november. fun. we are coming back after a quick break

okay. i want to turn to texas, democrats have chosen their candidate to face republican senator, ted cruz, that guy, and november nbc news project connor alright will win the primary. here's the congressman earlier. joining us now is texas congressman connor alright who won tonight. he will now be running to unseat ted cruz in november. first of all, you have a big road ahead of you so i hope you are sleeping and have coffee and all the things. but let me start with this. no democrat has won a statewide office in texas in 30 years as you are very familiar. that is the longest streak of its kind in the united states tell us what your campaign strategy to break that streak? >> yeah, thanks for having me on, jen. it is a great night for folks

that help us to get to this point, and to so many folks out there. this election is going to be about our future about where we are going to go from here and who is going to be serving us in the next six years. we are a diverse, rapidly growing state. fresh ideas and new leadership, we have seen enough of ted cruz here in texas. we know who he is, we know he is looking out for himself. we know he will always put his own interests first and as you know, i've been one of the most bipartisan members of the entire house of representatives and really the most bipartisan member of the texas legislation. running against the most extreme in the country, and make sure texas are represented in the senate. >> for the people who are just tuning in, they're getting to know you, tell us what is the thing about ted cruz that make you want to unseat him. probably more than being in the senate but what else? what should people know about why he is the is not should be kicked out and sent back to

texas? >> well, as i said in my speech tonight, when i played in the nfl, we talked about me guys, put themselves first, who didn't put the team first and are only interested in getting the cells in the press whatever the case may be. >> i think we're having a little technical difficulty there. hopefully we will get the congressman back. to talk to him more. hopefully, if we don't get him back, thank you so much, congressman already, if you can see us in here as we appreciate you i think we do have matthew dowd who is going to be joining the conversation. he is the former chief strategist for george w. bush's 2004 campaign. he has a few things about texas and lots of things about politics. i think it is fair to say. so texas has been i don't know if it is the white whale or the blue well, and then democrats

have been wanting texas for so long, break down for us the reality of this senate race, what is possible, how likely is it. give us your thoughts. >> good to talk to you, jen. as you know i was the campaign manager for the last democrat to win texas eight wide 30 years ago so it has been a long time and i remember that race well as texas was changing, i think texas has moved from a democratic state to a swing state in a very short. of time to a red state to a light red state and it is on the verge of becoming purple. the question is, can it become purple in a presidential election year? or does it need to be in a midterm year? i think colin allred has a real shot at the race but it is still a light red state as of right now in a presidential year. i think a lot, his chance is, to a large degree, depend on

the margin of victory, depends on what the margin is between donald trump and joe biden. and if that margin isn't single- digit or seven or eight then i think he has a real good shot at beating ted cruz. if it is double digits i think it becomes much harder. >> i think we might have colin allred back. don't go anywhere, let's see if we have him back. all right, congressman, how are you? thank you so much, i'm glad the technical difficulties allowed us to return to talk to you more. so i was just asking him about what people should know about ted's. and you were talking about when you were in the nfl, people talked about me guys! tell us more. what should people know about ted cruz? >> yeah. well serving in public office should be about the folks you are trying to serve and not about yourself. to me, ted cruz is the ultimate me guy. i think he is always looking about himself. when we have critical legislation that would help our state, the votes against it. he consistently has pitted us against each other because it

pushes him forward for this is something i think most texans are tired of. so i hear you all talking about where we have been and what the margins of victory need to be, let me tell you, texans are tired of being embarrassed by their senator and they know they can get a new one and that is what this campaign will be all about >> congressman colin allred, always a pleasure talking with you. i know you got a lot of work ahead, thank you so much for joining us. we are going to bring back and matthew dowd, our texas expert, one of them, joining us here to talk a little bit more about this race. let me ask you, matthew, you have been involved in some aspects of politics and government. obviously the president has a big speech on thursday, the state of the union. it is his is speith. what do the people texas need to hear from him? what might help colin allred that the president can talk about on thursday night? >> that is a great question and i think it is not only the people of texas but the people

in arizona and michigan and pennsylvania need to hear. i actually think it is the most important speech he is going to give, even more important than the convention because as you know full well that everybody on the panel knows, people look at conventions and they get a big audience with a look at it through a prism of a more partisan audience, you did give us the union, the state of the union is much less artisan and much more i am the president of the united states, i think in many ways after tonight, i have to tell you tonight, watching tonight's election results, i have to say was a little bit like watching a football game that you had put on tape you already knew what the results were and you watched the football game. that is what like. we have known for a while that this was going to be donald trump versus joe biden. now i think it has become formalized. that speech on thursday is really the first big step in the process of what this election is about. and now i know it is the state of the union so it is not going to be fully political but i think he actually has a take the speech and basically say this is a choice that is confronting america in a broad, vague way not only

philosophical but what it means in this country today and what are white in history is. i think this is probably the most important point in our history since the advent of the civil war. i think that most important point in our country's history in the last 160 years i think he has to make that argument and i think if you make that argument and then does it for the next 250 days, then i think the speech has residence. if he only isolates the speech and then does something different the day after, then i don't think it has much effect. >> it is a really important point, what happens after that, that is just coming up in two days from now. let me ask you about immigration. it is an issue that democrats, the president, are underwater on meaning they are far behind on in donald trump's speech today, he's in a good chunk of the speech, it was a bit of a fact free rent, talking about immigration. he killed the bipartisan immigration bill. is that an issue that joe biden and the

democrats should and a lot of time trying to make up ground on? what you think strategically, how should they approach that issue? please well here in texas, it is obviously a big issue but i think you look as voters in north carolina and as voters in wisconsin, they listed as one of the top three issues in the country today. economy, democracy, and integration seem to be the three top issues today. i don't think they can seek to spend a huge amount of resources on it, in my opinion. but they have to be proactive on it and make the country understand that if you want to hurt people in the way of solving this problem, are the republicans and the republicans in congress and donald trump, they don't want to solve the problem, they just don't have the problem exist but they need to do it in such a way, we're never going to win as democrats, democrats are never going to win on this issue, it is just you have to cut the margin to a degree but i think the worst thing you can do and then some democrats have fallen into this trap of being

defensive on the issue. they need to be proactive and put the republicans on the defense. if you just cut the marginal little, then i think that is a positive affect in the campaign. >> we saw a little bit of that in that special election in new york with thomas was his race. every part of the country is not new york but that was an interesting part of the strategy matthew dowd, thank you . coming up we will check in with the biden campaign. a spokesperson for the biden campaign is standing by. and he joins the conversation next. we will be right back. back.

club president biden released a statement late tonight on the results of tonight's primaries across the country to choose what he said. today millions of voters across the country made their voices heard, showing that they are ready to fight back against donald trump plan to take us backwards. four years ago i ran because of the existential threat donald trump posed to the america we all believe in. he is driven by grievance and grace, focused on his own revenge and retribution, not the american able to determine to destroy our democracy and he will do or say anything to put himself in power. there's a lot of alliteration in a statement that i like it. joining us now is the reason for the biden/harris campaign, kevin munoz. hi, kevin, thanks for staying up late with us. please hi, jen. good to be with you. >> it's all good, you just have

a campaign to win tomorrow. let me sit with this, i know you guys were watching all the primaries tonight. but probably especially the places where you are actually going to come and spend money and resources leading up to november. i am talking about, well there's a couple of states but north carolina specifically. that was the state the president came closest in 2022 winning but didn't win. tell us what you saw there in north carolina is there anything that was encouraging to your team as you look at the data and the result? look, what we thought north carolina was part of a trend that was across the country we have seen throughout the republican primaries, which is that a lot of the independent suburban moderate republican voters that are decisive to getting to 270 electoral votes are just not with donald trump and not only does donald trump not have their support, we saw between seven and eight and 10 of these haley voters say that they are not committed to voting donald trump this november. we see these as opportunities we see donald trump as having no interest in actually

reaching across the aisle, reaching these voters. opportunities for us to continue to expand this coalition north carolina is a state that has seen the impact really intimately of this maga extremism they have these extreme republicans override governor cooper's abortion ban bido and so that is going to be an issue that will be highly mobilizing >> it is definitely going to be a huge state to watch. a very young energetic state party chair, as well. i also know i'm doing the few campaigns, we all have for you have done a combined 150 campaigns in this panel you are probably watching donald trump speech tonight. there was a lot in it most of it was pretty detached from reality. it was low-energy, i keep repeating that. what was going on in the campaign text thread about that one? what were you guys saying to each other as you were watching that speech? what did you know about it please well it is interesting, i think a lot when he does these low-energy speeches.

people say that this is actually him being more disciplined, this is him talking to a broader audience. it is not, he is low-energy. this morning was talking about how immigrants are poisoning the blood of this country, that is nazi rhetoric. how toxic his agenda is with the voters that will decide the selection. no mar-a-lago speech long, aside all of his crazy friends changes the facts here, that he has an agenda that is deeply toxic and we have to keep talking to the voters about that honest answer. >> kevin munoz, i will let you go get some sleep so you can go fight another day tomorrow. thank you so much for joining us tonight we have much more to get to tonight. the panel is coming back after a quick rake so stay with us.

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energy that gets you to the next level. cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul.com. club donald trump is racking up several expected victory tonight, are also getting some insights into not to support it, thanks to nbc's exit polls. among the gop primary voters that backed haley in the states of virginia and north carolina, a majority of them said that they would not commit to voting for the republican nominee regardless of who it is this november. and a plurality of her voters in california said the same.

in other words, haley's backers have pretty deep reservations about trump in those states. to that point, a lot of haley's support comes from voters trying to stick it to trump. among republican primary voters backing her in virginia, north carolina and california a lot of says there vote was against the opponent rather than for her. simone, jen, and tim are back with me. let's talk about this because there are some and we are talking about them opportunities for the biden team but let's start with the exit poll number because it is kind of, it stuck out to me when i looked at those numbers. what did you think? play that was the one thing it wasn't just printed, even wrote it down in my own handwriting. there is this whole thing in the times

and there is your victory. >> it is true, he needs to get those voters back. the other point someone made to me today which stuck with me is that the 2020 electorate is not the 2024 electorate. in part because of dobbs and

what we know from 2022 is that there is a swath of voters who turned out who are mad asabout their access to abortion rights and they turned down special elections and they turned down virginia where i live. what was your take away from that exit poll or maybe other things that might be good signs for the biden team? we look, we have our great exit polls right here. i think the economy number stuck out to me. i looked at, and north carolina in the primary, of the republican voters 51% favored a national law banning abortions. if you go down and look at super tuesday, republican primaries that opposed the federal law banning abortions nationwide, 54% opposed and north carolina 45% oppose, republican primary voters, opposing a national law in those states. north carolina number, that 50 one that concerns me and also it speaks to how the current governor is the now republican nominee for

governor there so abortion is a general election issue in 2024. i do think the biden campaign realizes it. i also think that every trump campaign realizes it which is why we are trying to, they are trying to take a magic wand and houff and make us forget that donald trump is the president that appointed judges that overturned row that he bragged about it like he doesn't have, it didn't happen. like oh that wasn't me. and we cannot forget, we know what it is. the vice president has been on this tour of talking about row and reproductive freedoms. after the state of the union, tina said that she is going to phoenix on friday for her fifth stop on that tour to talk about this issue. phoenix, arizona, arizona is a state that biden camp won in 2020. they need to win again to win re-election so this is a strategy that i don't think is necessarily showing up in the polling and everyplace abortion,

it was supposed to be a red wave and 2022 and it was like a trickle. >> the abortion issue, it is interesting for a range of reasons, all of our rights, not yours, sort of. it is interesting that i'm turning to amanda talk about abortion rights but that is what i'm going to do. >> this conversation. >> we need men in the conversation. one of the interesting things about abortion rights is you do see some of these polls, it is not the number one issue for people. it does engage and excite a population of people. but it needs to be in front of people's faces as a threat in order for it to be a voting issue. so you're also communications expert how did they do that, including with independence, moderate republicans who may not love trump, may care about this issue. >> are you ready for a man's view on abortion? i am about to give you the mail voter response to abortion because the big democrats need to talk to those guys, too.

i think this is where a lot of growth is. i say this is because we saw in the midterms a lot of women were upset with republicans, a lot of moderate severe republican types, they were not even voting democrat, right? how could you potentially grow post row and trump has done so well with noncollege men that are not christian. we talk all the times about evangelicals but trump brought in the famous obama trump union guys. the joe rogan crowd. i think if i was the democrats i would be really focused on talking to them about abortion rights because some of them also, that could be a very important issue in their lives, as well. they are pro-choice, they're not looking for, they were for trump because he wasn't creepy weird christian like ted cruz and micah johnson. they liked him because he seemed secular. democrats need to message to them, in addition to women about the threats here are very real. and of trump gets in there, it is not going to be apprenticed

bro trump that is handling the abortion issue, it is going to be mike johnson and that supreme court and i think that that could be a way for democrats to gain with a group that they haven't done that well with. >> no question. go ahead. >> i think that the ivf decision is the most important thing that has happened in the presidential race thus far. >> it is just, it kind of feels like '22 where abortion was in a flow and similar in terms of polls but when you talk to people, tamara keith in talking to voters and every democrat she talked to. every person who said i am voting the two product primary, that was the issue and the vice president says it so well. they want to tell you that you can and a pregnancy nor can you start a family. we need someone's permission. >> we are going to talk a lot more about abortion rights, i suspect, in the coming days. simone sanders townsend, thank

you, we will let both of you get to bed. thank you for staying up with us. tim miller is having some coffee and a red bull. you're sticking with us, i am sticking around. we have another full hour of our special coverage coming up. we are coming back after a very quick rate.

welcome to back to msnbc's special coverage of super tuesday. it's 1 a.m. on the east coast, 10 p.m. out west and the bigsh primary day of this election year. millions of americans took to the polls today across 16 states and one territory. at this hour former president trump has won 12 states bringing his total number of delegates above 900. that puts him a fuel away from

the magic number he needs to clench the republican nomination. and on the democratic side president joe biden cleaned up all the contests tonight accept in american sumowa, but i have a feeling he'll be just fine. he now has just over 1,400 delegates. there were no major surprises at the top of the ticket except for one win by nikki haley in the state of vermont. nbc news is reporting haley spent time at her campaign headquarters, she gave no public remarks, no speech to her supporters and right now she has no scheduled events on the calender. that's not a sign of momentum in a campaign. at the end of kpa the country remains on track for a rematch for 2020, the delegate numbers tonight tell you that but with one major difference. donald trump is now facing criminal charges across four major cases many related to his attempt to steal the last election. while the big lie may might play

well with his maga base tonight's exposed warning signs, warning signs haley's campaign called out in a statement released moments ago. writing, quote, we're honored to have received the support of millions of americans across the country today including in vermont. today in state after state there remains a large block of republican primary voters who are expressing unity. addresses those voters concerns will make the republican party and america bet. clearly a large block of republican voters are expressing deep concerns about donald trump. the big question heading into november for joe biden and democracy is how big is that block? joining uroconversation fresh meat, molly john fast, and msnbc analyst and north carolina native. we will get to that. anthony coly, now host of the bulwark podcast, tim miller.

and former republican david jolly, and also adrienne elrod. so it is a full crew. so i want to start with our fresh meat as i like to say. david jolly, you were just talking about the haley campaign and what's going on there. what is going on there and when what do all these signs tell you about what they may be talking about? >> as a republican candidate nikki haley should drop out of the race tomorrow. but she should have dropped out after new hampshire, after south carolina. bullet clearly she's largely been statistically eliminated and might take next tuesday or the following tuesday in florida, illinois, and so forth. as a republican candidate she's done. she never actually was competitive against donald trump if he look at the delegate count. but as a surrogate for a coalition of delivering voters in a general election with joe biden, then she should stay in the race for another two weeks because that is essentially her contribution to the body politic

now which is to coalesce a number of people who say we have grave concerns about donald trump. here is what haley is missing. if you're essentially coalescing this coalition saying donald trump is unfit, well losing to donald trump doesn't make him more fit for office. how does nikki haley turn around and all of a sudden say i called him unstable, unhinged, questioned his competency and his age, but now i'm going to support him? she plaebl will because she does that. >> she left the door open to this on "meet the press" this weekend. >> a lot of voters will go to joe biden. but the moment for nikki haley, adam kinzinger, and others is not to say simply i'm voting for donald trump but to say i'm voting for joe biden. that's how you deliver the country forward. i doubt nikki haley will ever do that. >> molly, you happen to personally know the man who

won -- he's a jp, so i like him, the american sumowa, so that's an interesting detail about you. we've been talking a lot about nikki haley, about exit polls, what's good for joe biden or not. what was your big take away tonight? >> two things. jen paw mary was talking about this and we were talking about it at the break, these polls are wrong. we know these polls are wrong from the exit polls. >> which piece is most wrong? >> is that there's a real never trump contingent. and remember trump is a primary candidate. she's annal ever tried to appeal to republican voters, and he cannot marshal that group together the way he needs to you'regist not seeing that same kind of enthusiasm.

and there still is never trump. never trump continues. there is no never biden, that's not a thing. >> the uncommitted vote i think is what you're referring to, which is sending an important message about a policy change people want. let me ask you, and you can tell me anything you want about your take-aways, but the challenge we were talking about with palmieri. the 2022 electorate turned out a lot of abortion rights voters, they have to turn them out. what do you do if you're the biden campaign? you're a communications expert among other things to try to appeal to that percentage of voters with trump or maybe they're like they don't bant to turn out. >> their biggest challenge is really one of complacency and camnesia. and david and i were talking

about this earlier. the further you get away from a bad thing, the big question is the same question every incumbent president has, right, how do you rally people around your vision for the party? again, when i first met you it was on the carrie campaign 2004, we were like 4 years old. but it was the same challenge that bush had, it was the same challenge obama had, right? and the way they won those elections is that they framed it not as a referendum on their presidencies but as a contrast between two very distinct, very clear competing visions and ideologies, and that's what joe biden has got to do. >> tim, one of the challenges of running -- there's a lot of advantages as running an incumbent. one of the challenges is people see you every day, and the buck stops with you. what do you do if you're the president about some of the issues that are on the minds of voters that he's held

responsible for, maybe inflation, immigration? there's a couple of them that pop in the polls. >> i think this is what is showing in some of the polls, actually. a lot of people are really coming to termles with the fact and they're upset about immigration or inflation or something else in his life or his age. i do think they consider that as the head to head or as the real choice comes into focus. i'll say this, though. if i'm the biden campaign, i don't know, i was a little spooked by the new yorker article. but if i'm the biden team i'd like them to be a little worried. they're losing by 5 to a guy who tried to overturn the election. >> a little worry is good. you can't have complacent -- >> they are worried. i don't think they're worried it, but they are on it. i was there interviewing someone

in the white house this week, and they are very -- this is a campaign very with it. they are very reactive. they are out there. and i think the white house -- i don't think they're complacent. >> the pivot has happened. >> we're going to see it on thursday. >> the contrast they're going have to put forward to detail the very competing visions in the country and the very real threat donald trump poses to america. >> and this contrast, they've got to do it, on things like immigration. and i think he's starting to do it. look, he wanted to solve the problem. he made offers to congress and it's the republican that don't want to solve the problem. it's solving things versus crazy, that's the big contrast for him. >> here's my question here we've all communicated a lot. it is hard to communicate they screwed this up and killed the deal. i mean that is a hard thing to communicate. so what do you think, i mean i

want vetters, people are concerned about this issue. >> on the border and economy i do think the biden administration needs to get control of these issues or it could hurt them in november. >> get control to be clear i think means make up some ground. >> own the message, don't accept the republican narrative. the truth is i'm going to did the riff i did at 4:00 for joe bidench i promise you it is morning in america again tomorrow more people will go to work than ever before. homeownership remains at historic highs. the stock hat at all all-time high and so is your retirement account, inflation is coming town, and real wages are going up. on the issue people seem most concerned about at the border, it was joe biden who led a bipartisan coalition, and it was republicans that stopped it. so thursday night at the "state of the union" frame that for republicans and what to you do to republicans? you say stop standing in the way

of growing the economy and solving the border issue. why don't you work for america instead of gaens us? look, the facts are there for the administration. because right now republicans do have a bit of control in the economic and border message. >> the last thing i'll say before you go to the next thing is that the energy and performance -- >> unapologetic about where things stand in the economy. >> but you hear him trying to get that message out there, and i do think i agree, and they should be worried and i do think they are. i mean they know the gravity of this. look, this is the do you want to have elections anymore elections. >> the last thing i'll say here is that democrats -- god bless my party -- >> it's a big umbrella. >> yes.

and this is the point you were making earlier. the vote we are seeing in primary after primary even going back to the 2018 mid-term elections, the voters are not matching what people are telling these exit -- these pollsters. and i will tell you i will always, always, always take people casting ballots over what they tell pollsters any day of the week. >> we've got a lot of thoughts. i know we're going to get congressman -- coming up soon we're going have to take break as well. so let's go to i think -- okay, so let's keep talking then. oh, adrianne elrod. i'm very sorry to forget that you were there. and you i worked a lot together over 20 years. so, tell us what you big take away from tonight was. what makes you elated, what

makes you concern as you look at the results tonight. >> i think one of the biggest concerns -- well, not a concern of mine, but a concern of donald trump is something we've been talking about since the iowa caucuses, which is his coalition is not strong. it is not as firm as somebody who's effectively running as an incumbent should be. nikki haley she got about 43% of the vote in massachusetts, trump got about 60% in iowa. we can look at all these states and see nikki haley, the anti-trump republican vote, whatever you want to call it, is alive and well. so, again, how is trump going to coalesce that? as we know as we've seen in 2016 when donald trump did -- if you want to call it that did win the election, did become the president, every single election since then he's not done well, whether you're looking at 2017,

2018, president biden beat him. his coalition is not firm. he's doing a lot to attract the red meat of his base, but not doing a lot to expand the coalition and building a coalition to one of the generals. yes, obviously there's the protest vote or uncommitted vote against biden and some states, and the biden campaign knows very well, i agree with what molly and anthony said, which they're firmly aware there's work to do, of course, and they're taking this very seriously, but there are certainly fissures in the republican party when it comes to who they're going to support. >> i thought of you today adrienne, because it's so early. unfortunately there is not a president clinton just like there wasn't a president carrie.

everyone, stay where you are. joining me now is democratic congressman jake auchinkloss of massachusetts. the president has the biggest speech of the year, the "state of the union," we've just been talking about that coming up in two days. obviously tonight was a big night to make clear to the american public donald trump is going to be the nomne. but let's go to thursday. what do you want to hear from president, what do you think is important for people around the country who want to support the president want to hear? >> thanks for having me. i want to make two things the president wants to make in the "state of the union," the first is a clear exposition how strong the economy is and of the strong trend line of lower costs. americans still have had hangover from the bout of

inflation we experienced, but prices have stabilized, real wages are going up, and the president needs to punch that home. the second thing is immigration. again, he needs to make clear he supported a bipartisan senate border security deal, it was republicans who torpedoed it because they wanted to campaign on the issue, not govern on the issue, and they should extend his hand and say i am still here, and he's got to turn the economy and immigration from issues that could be a liability in november to issues that could be tail winds for him in november. >> you've worked a lot on national security issues and outs spoken on a number of them. what do you want to hear on the israel-hamas war? >> his continued support for the six-week temporary cease-fire that would get the hostages home, allow humanitarian aid to be surged into gaza and that hamas needs to accept for the good of the hostage and for the good of the palestinian people. on and on this issue of israel,

i think that these results tonight speak to a broader pattern as both candidates, trump and biden, look to rally their bases ahead of the general election. and i think the question here is was israel the equivalent of kind of the never trump vote on the democratic side? was it something going to keep democratic voters from supporting joe biden? to me it's no, no it's not going to do that. donald trump has a real problem in his base. he's got a group of people who won't support him of a real but persistent minority who will not support him. the issue of israel is not going to keep people from supporting joe biden who are strong democrats or on a roll leading left. that i think is a massive, massive thing for the president going into an election. >> sending a clear message that it's important and very much on

the minds of the people in this country, but doesn't mean a i'm going to vote for joe biden vote, which is very different as you outlined from the other side. we did have a crew polling place in needham, which is in your district where they talked to voters about a lot of issues. we heard a lot about the president's age. it didn't seem to bother folks. i want to play a little bit of that and get your thoughts on that. >> because i think he's been a very good president, and he very much deserves being voted again. he slips on his words, but so do i i. it has nothing to do with our brain, it's been a great four years. >> a lot of people who have brought up his age does it concern you at all? >> a little bit, not that much. >> not that much? >> to me it's a no-brainer. he's a much better candidate. >> having had had family members lived into good mental aptitude

into their mid-90s, it does not disturb me. >> first of all, the people of needham seem lovely. i'd love to visit there. we're all going to needham after this, tomorrow. i wanted to play that because, one, it's interesting to hear. i mean that is the argument, right, that joe biden is a better candidate, a better president than donald trump and it is still an issue that pops in the polls. what do you think that the president and his team should be doing to undress that issue or neutralize it? >> if monday is a referendum on is joe biden too old to be president, that's not a good thing for joe biden. whether americans want to move torward with the good president or go back foochaos with the worst president, and that is the choice i think the biden campaign is well equipped as molly has been making clear to put in stark term tuesday the

american people. and we're going to see groups, young voters, for example, more reluctant to date to support the president. i think as we get closer to november that's going to crystallize and galvanize those voters. >> congressman, we look forward to see yog ain needham tomorrow. appreciate you staying up late with us. we have much more to get to and talk about during this special hour. and up next we'll shift our focus to north carolina. our north carolina native is chomping at the bit over here in a race for governor that could be the most expensive and closely watched of the year with the craziest republican nominee. it's one we should all be paying attention especially the republican endorsed guy i just mentioned might be the most extreme candidate in the country. we're back after a very quick break. try. we're back after a very quick break. why choose a sleep number smart bed? can i make my side softer?

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you might remember back during the 2022 mid-terms republican husband a trump problem. in competitive statewide races republicans nominated extreme maga candidates, candidates like kari lake. she's still around. blake master, and doug maus mastriano. tonight the state's trump endorsed lieutenant governor mark robinson won the republican nomination for governor. and even by maga standards this guy has a lot of baggage.

he called the cerevivers of the parkland school shooting quote media protitoca is media bastards who need to shut up. he has said muslims in america are invaders and he's said transgender americans should find a corner outside somewhere to go to the bathroom. that's just a sliver of the controversy that follows the candidate that north carolina republicans just nominated. the gang is back with me. anthony, you've been waiting all day to talk about mark robinson. where can, you're from north carolina. you've done a lot of politics in the south, which is important for people to know. what is the deal with this guy, how will it help the democrats? >> first, let me say by saying the people who sell the fake

handbags on the street, the knock offs are always worse tan the original. this a guy who came into power six years ago. he gave one speech in front of city council in north carolina. two years later he's the lieutenant governor, and then along the way he's like offending women and gay people and transgender people, i mean you name it he's offended you. the issue now is that he's about to run into a hurricane in the form of josh stein, the democratic incumbent attorney general who's the democratic nominee. josh stein knows how to win in north carolina. he's won twice statewide, each time donald trump was at the top of the ticket. and so to answer your question, this could not be a better gift for joe biden and north carolina. you've got this crazy candidate. but two other things if you're joe biden you've got going for you. you've got ted kennedy once told me good policy makes for good politic, and that's playing out

on the ground in north carolina. this infrastructure law six $5.8 billion roads, bridges, airports in north carolina $2 billion in high-speed internet infrastructure, it may not sound like a big thing in l.a. or new york city, but in rural america that is transformative. the other thing about north carolina and i'm glad the biden campaign has recognized this, they're already investing in the state. in the first ad buy they did last fall, north carolina was on the ad buy. he's already been on the air in north carolina, so north carolina is going to be the new virginia, mark my words. save the tape. >> i don't want you not to have a chance to share your thoughts on mark robinson. this guy is nominated is be in the governor in a party you once were a part of.

>> it's the end of the world as we know it. he's rough, okay? we've got a lot of rough candidates in the republican party, my former party. i think he looks kari lake look pretty mainstream, frankly. the list of his comments on facebook and other social media forums, it's not good. so the question is can there be the reverse? you haven't seen a whole lot of that, and i think the big question is when you're going into charlotte, you're talking to my people, not the gays this time, the former republicans, the banker in charlotte, they're worried about the state economy with this guy. there are practical concerns. i don't imagine they're voting

against him because they care about gay rights. >> or jay-z. >> and so the question is can you get that person to vote for stein and biden? and is that even worth the resource for biden? i'm going to call it a maybe. >> i want to bring in adrienne, because adrienne is another southerner. she's from arkansas. i know this because i heard her cheering for her team from her cubicle loudly. she also knows a lot about the biden strategy. north carolina is the state biden came closest to winning and didn't win. how do you think the biden team will play this? how will they use the nomination of an extreme gubernatorial nominee to help them in north carolina? >> well, i think this is a good win in many ways for joe biden

tonight because this is exactly to what everyone on the panel has been talking about tonight, this is the problem with the republican party as we know it today, the maga republican party is they coalesce around these crazy candidates. remember rory moore and jones came in and won that rl race i think a couple years ago i think it was 2017. they coalesce around these maga extremist and then lose in the generals. this is only going to help joe biden i think again when you're looking at the independent swing voters, the ones who ultimately decide who wins in novembers, and looking at some of these extreme candidates especially this guy in north carolina who's going to be the republican nominee. it really does start to cause a lot of people to think, i don't know, jen, like you said earlier people are not excited about both biden and trump. but when you look at the extremist agenda of the republicans and who they're putting up, it only helps president biden again among the

key voters who don't necessarily make up the republican party base right now, but a key voter will ultimately decide the general election. they're very turned off by maga extremism, by some of the comments and crazy comments this guy is making. and that's the problem when you put out the maga extremist. it's very hard, you may be well-to-do well in a primary, but you're not going to do well in a general. >> the other thing to me is the resources that have to be spent. just about how much money outside republican packs are spending to try to defeat the extremist nominee. that's money. money doesn't go on trees. it's not unlimited fund-raising. how much does that impact them, david jolly? >> it's huge, but it also brings in presidential money as well. i think there's zero surprise he's the republican nominee. that's mainstream maga, but the question will be we're going to find out if north carolina is a

swing state or really competitive. to adrienne's point, this helps remind north carolina voters it should be competitive. this is gift to joe biden, and we can't overlook the issue of reproductive freedom, the ability to triangulate this candidate in what should be a swing state. look, i think tim probably agrees with this. north carolina has been a target for dems but a target that feels like it's slipping away. in the electoral college map joe biden needs to win north carolina. >> everyone stay right where you are. the rest of the panel is sticking around. tennessee state representative justin jones joins the kfrgz after a quick break. we'll ask him about what happened in his state tonight and what of the data tells us about the state of the republican party. we'll be right back. the state oe republican party we'll be right back.

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we're getting more evidence tonight that the big lie is a alive and well in the republican party. according to nbc's exit polling a majority of gop primary voters in the states of california, north carolina, and virginia say that they don't believe that

president joe biden legitimately won the 2020 election. on top of that, most republican primary voters in those three states say that donald trump is fit to be president even if he is convicted of a crime, which says a lot about trump supporters. joining me now is justin jones. he's a state representative in tennessee where donald trump and joe biden both won their respective primaries tonight, one of my favorite people to talk to. thank you so much for staying up late with us tonight. there's no question that trump supporters will forgive almost anything he does. i just gave an example of that. does that kind of blind devotion concern you when you consider what trump and his allies actually want to do? >> definitely and good evening, jen. i think it's the latest we've been on the news together. but it's definitely concerning. as wesy in my state the republican party has become the party of authoritarianism, as the party of mythology and lies,

and it's just very concerning. i mean this is the same mentality we saw in our state where we had extremists expel us and their members said follow the line or you will be punished. it's almost like a cult-like following we're seeing and for the sake of our democracy people are going to get behind a man not only a criminal but somebody incited violence and insurrection against our nation and racist fear mongering that has brought the worst of what america is. >> you've shown an a very inspiring willingness to take a stand over and over again against republican colleagues in tennessee who are taking extreme positions. what advice do you have for your fellow democrats who will be running competitive seats up and down this ballot this november who might be in red states, they might be in states where there are some extremist views. how should they approach these issues and difficult races? >> this is precisely the time for moral clarity.

you know, what we saw in tennessee today is about 20% of voters -- of republican primary voters rejected trumpism, voted for other candidates besides trump particularly in suburban counties like williamson county. 30% of them voted. this is a chance down ballot to get voters to see we're the party, we're the ones who have moral clarity in this time of insanity and moral chaos, we're the party who will speak up and fight to protect kids and not guns. this i think this is the time we have to be bold, we have to show we're unintimidated by forces that want to take us back into history. i'm hoping people see this is really a choice between authoritarianism and violence and going toward a multiracial democracy, which is the direction we've been fighting for to uplift all voices in our community. >> for people who are young or

insomniacs and watching right now thinking this is becoming more extreme by the day, trump is influencing people across the country, you've been working to turn the tide on addressing gun violence on a range of issues. is it going to take time, activism? what is it going to take? >> this is a time that should offer us clarity, what is at stake is what we love. and so, you know, in times like these we must use every tool at our disposal to protect our democracy, to fright for the future we deserve. what gives me hope and i was just in florida this weekend, i've traveled across my state talking to young people who are offering a vision of this nation of what it can be and what it ought to be. the one thing i know for sure, jen, is that the republican party has lost the young vote with rising immigration, they have no chance of winning them.

i asked do you think trump can win young black votes, and they think that is delusional. we have to uplift and amplify the voices of the young people. when you look at the 1960s with young people sitting at lunch counters in nashville to today it's important to speak up. it's important to have at the table not just in symbolic positions but offer perspective on what direction we want this nation to head. >> thank you senator -- representative jones. thank you so much for joining us this evening. i always enjoy talking to you. we have to sneak in a very quick break. the panel is coming back but still here. talk about a very busy week ahead for the presidential race. stay with us.

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it's a big week ahead for president joe biden. on thursday night he'll deliver the "state of the union," and this isn't going to be your run of the mill "state of the union" address. in lots of ways this is pretty much going to be a major campaign speech in the general election against trump. it's probably the most important speech he will give this year,

and biden is set to flat out ask the american people whose side are you on? are americans on the side of lower health care costs, ukraine ffs fight against russia or freedoms or americans on the side of profits for drug companies, tax breaks for the wealthy and russian president vladimir putin, the party of putin. president trump is ready to argue he's on the right side of these issues. that's all coming up less than 48 hours from now. i'm joined again by msnbc political analyst molly jung fast, msnbc analyst anthony coaly, msnbc analyst and host of the bulwark podcast tim miller and former republican congressman david jolly. so, molly, the "state of the union" is every year a huge speech. it is a huge audience. >> every year -- well, here's what i mean. you get a very big audience for a speech.

there have been diminishing audiences for speeches writ large. speeches are no longer in vogue usually, but the stooup of is a usually a very big speech. they can't break through on that, they need to make gains on it, they're going to use it as an opportunity when people need to listen. what do you think the president needs to do in this speech? >> definitely the economy you're right, this is an attention economy, right? the game here is to get attention, get voters attention. so i do think they'll talk about the economy. look, the top line should be the inflation reduction act, reduced inflation. like, it worked. we were told we would have an recession. we did not have a recession. the other thing they have to hammer home is ivf and birth control. they have opened door to -- >> mifepristone ban is coming. >> right.

in alabama they've said five frozen cells have the same rights as people. that is crazy. >> many republican senators don't understand how ivf works. that's a sidebar. we'll discuss it another time. anthony, part of the "state of the union" is the performance. and this is especially important i would say for president biden because still on the minds of voters is he's 81, is he up for the job? >> right, right. what does that look like? is it just his energy? does he need a back and forth? what do you think he needs to do. >> it's all those things. he's got to talk not just about all his legislative accomplishments he's achieved with his democratic congress, but he's got to make it real and plain how these things are meserably improving people's lives. as much as we support endangered species, right so he's got to

talk to about the past and bill clinton said don't stop thinking about tomorrow so there's got to be a flavor of that. to your point the energy of his performance has got to match the robust vision he lays out for the country, and i think that will go a long way to dispill will pel this notion he's not fit for the job, which he is. >> people are so obsessed with getting their things in there they literally wait for you outside the bathroom. this was part of his statement tonight. trying to appeal to republicans to independents, i think i bet part of his speech is going to try do to do that. what are some of those things where it will be hard for republicans in the room? i'm not talking about marjorie

taylor greene. i don't even know what crazy thing she's going to do, but others in the room. maybe they're up for re-election. >> let's talk about energy, for example. we're doing record energy right now. we're energy independent. ukraine i think is another one. it divides the republicans basically in half and maybe a little less than half now. but talk about his support for ukraine, his support for freedom and for american values against the russian threat. go in and make a moral case about that. you're trying to get the mitch mcconnell voter in atlanta win them over. so energy and ukraine are two that come to mind. >> those are good ones. all right, david jolly, in the

one minute we have left bring us hope. do you think he should mention donald trump's name? >> no, i think you should draw the contest. be unpallgeticly on offense on the border. and i would say for every candidate including joe biden you should presume most voters don't know what you mean by interpreting democracy and autocracy to interpret it for them, your ability to choose where your kids go to school and what books they read without the interference of government bring home what liberty really means. joe biden is right on the issues and he could win on the issues, he needs to own them and deliver them. should he mention donald trump by name? i think probably as well i don't think i don't think he will. that's my bet. okay. thank you so much for staying up with us tonight.

it was fun, it was interesting. it was engaging. i learned a lot. that does it for us tonight. stay right where you are because there's much more special coverage coming up at the top of the hour. e top of the hour

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