>> announcer: from msnbc, decision 2022 live from democracy plaza. and here we go. it is 6:00 p.m. on the east coast. i'm rachel maddow coming to you live from our election night stewed year here at msnbc headquarters. my companions on this long journey tonight are here with me now. joy reed, nicolle wallace, chris hayes, the great ari melber. we'll have many other colleagues joining us. we have water, painkillers, jerky, including weird jerky. we have 30 different kind of chocolate. we're going to be fine. steve kornacki is at the big board. he's contractually obligated to avoid sleep. he can't hear us right now.

the roaring in his ears is too amazing. the first polling places have just close in the parts of kentucky and indianale we'll be getting our first results in any minute. the rest of the polls in those states will close in one hour along with a bunch of other states, vermont vermont, south carolina, part of florida, also the all important state of georgia, where one of the tight interest hardest fought senate races in the country could determine which party controls the united states senate. over 44 million americans voted early this year. and i know big numbers mean nothing in the abstract, but that means that the record-setting early vote from the last midterm elections in 2018, which everybody thought was unbeatable, those numbers have already been beaten in the early vote this time around. people who didn't vote early have been lining up across the country today to cast ballots. there are many hour of voting left to go in many states. on the line tonight, as you know, control of both chambers

of congress. democrats have an uphill battle to keep control of the house, where they have a very narrow majority right now, and history says the president's party always loses a significant number of seats, particularly in a first-term midterm election like president biden's party is facing now. in the senate, it is democratically controlled, but it's 50/50 and absolutely appears to be a jump ball tonight, which means it could hinge on any one of a number of extremely close races. also on the line tonight, three dozen governors races. hotly contested races for attorney general and secretary of state. in some states tonight, the vote could determine whether abortion is banned. democrats, including president biden and former president obama have been warning heading into today that democracy itself is on the ballot. and even though that sounds like a slogan with a lot after happy sounding patriotic words, it means something specific this

year. something like 300 election deniers are running for office as republicans across the country tonight. if they win, some of them could be in charge of how the next elections play out, whether vote totals are certified, whether winners are allowed to win, whether losers will have to acknowledge they lost. it's that fundamental. when it comes to tonight's vote, republicans are telling voters to be suspicious of what's expected to be a long ballot counting process in a lot of states particular we've seen republican legal maneuvers in the state of pennsylvania. even today make it more likely the vote counting in pennsylvania will last through much of this week with a super tight senate race in pennsylvania, which could very well decide control of the u.s. senate. we of course expect that republicans will use the drawn out process which they caused in pennsylvania as supposed evidence of something wrong with the vote there. president trump is already telling voters to protest

today's vote, saying there's so much wrong withed too's vote. for now, voting continues across the country. we've got a big, big long night ahead which, we mean in the best possible way. we are just getting started here. now, my compatriots, y'all were tired last night. >> i wasn't tired. [ laughter ] >> how dare you. >> there was intermittent fasting and stamina already. i feel like it is actually a healthy thing for the country that we are inoculated to expect a long night, not only a long evening but long week of counting. >> one thing i want to say at the outset before we get into the returns. people made this point and i want to make it up front. steve kornacki will be reporting the data as he gets it. this does not change the state of affairs. the state of affairs exist.

we're getting them in different orders. it's like if someone reported steve kornacki a basketball game with the bucket out of order. in republican circles, there's something going on in philly, something going on here. it's all the votes all the people that voted. they vote in the different methods. in the end, that will sum to an outcome. but there's no actual movement happening behind. that we're just learning it in realtime and processing it in realtime and i really do think -- we saw this in 2020, leaping on that process as a means of sort of trying to create suspicion, right? there's something suspicious about this county reporting later or that county reporting later. it's going take as long as it takes to count the votes and when you add them up, you know who won the election. >> to that point i think one thing we haven't talked enough about is the disingenuous nature of the critique, the critique of the slow voting and of when votes come in and of what types

of votes are supposed to count and what's not. the reason it's disingenuous is because none of the people who applied that criticism didn't apply to it any races republicans won. we never saw republicans in pennsylvania, in arizona say, my race doesn't look right either. it's a pretextual criticism designed to make election results seem optional rather than being something that's actually nitpicked or pulled apart on a factual basis. >> donald trump, i think people who think he's some sort of genius are just off on "the apprentice" he was a good actor. he's not a genius. but he did innovate things we're stuck with. he did demonize one particular way of voting, absentee voting, which used to be of the republican party. he siphoned that piece off so you could do what you're talking about and demonize it and say,

there's something funny about that. >> once the ballots are cast that can be demonized. >> right. >> and if you want to do, let's say, a lawsuit, which he's already talk about doing in certain places where he thinks he's not going to like the outcome, you can say, i'm just going sue over these votes. because he siphoned them off. and there's something inherently wrong with them. then the other kind of voting, early voting for a long time has been a staple of the way you expand to vote to black voters, lower income voters, brown voters, that's the big bucket that's in the early vote, so that's the part that gets trashed as just inherently bad any way, and that those voters, there's something wrong where them. they shouldn't be deciding elections. it should just be the people who, if you're thinking like maga, show up on an election day. those are the real voters. we know the people who show up

on election day are disproportionately republican. they found a way to use attacking the systems as a sideways of saying certain people in this country should not have the right to vote. >> geographically we saw it. this was not a trump thing. this was karl rove's group today. about how there's been a republican legal assault on specific type of ballots and voting in pennsylvania. no, the karl rove group today challenged the process in philadelphia specifically. just that one county they're going to force them to institute new processes that will slow down the counting only in philadelphia and then they'll complain. >> drop boxes are bad. who uses drop boxes? lower income people. people who don't have time, people who work an hourly job. >> you know how karl rove became karl rove? the mail. literally things that went through the mail, ad ands mail-in vote. i think the important thing to matter is that the

disenfranchisement is the bug. the feature is the red mirage. we know because all trump's campaign officials testified before the january 6th committee is the reason they demonize every vote other than same day, which they never relied upon but do now is to create a trumpian mirage, a red mirage, so the litigation and perhaps even the unrest takes place while peel are deluded into thinking the stuff -- to your point, the baskets that get count first tell a lie. it signals extraordinary political weakness, which may not even be the case tonight. >> that is what's so weird. >> rachel, you talk about this record breaking turnout already early. this is a really interesting election. i'm excited for it and you think about what we're up against and why people are turning out. this is the first election since trump was boot out of office, and the first election since an insurrection and failed coup,

and since the pandemic transition and since the inflation crisis, which many countries are facing, and since the war in ukraine. so you know that feeling -- >> and roe. >> and roe being overturned. you know that feeling in 2016 where it was like, a lot's going on. then four years a lot more was going on. then lost because wasn't going leave without a militant coup attempt. i think high participation is exciting. it may be across the spectrum. we're going to have to see what voters say and what steve counts up. but people are participating in democracy, many are the expectation that their vote will count and the results will be adhered to, and i think that's a positive. >> yes, absolutely. >> one thing that's amazing is the partisan voting method is mind blowing. it's the dr. syracuse, the two warring tribes, which side they butter their bread on. there's no partisan content. it has been polarized by donald trump. now you have this thing, i'm

seeing republicans like, stay in line. >> that's what democrats say. >> this is where i think it's important, these small "d" democratic principles. i want everyone to vote. i really do to the core of my cells want everyone to vote. i want everyone to be able to have their vote counted. i just do not -- that has to be the first principle. >> we want a technically sound -- joining us now is the great steve kornacki at the big board. i feel like we're cracking the seal on you when do you think we're going to start getting meaningful insight into how the night's going to unfold? >> in 49 minutes, that's at 7:00, we're going to have polls closing. i think we're going to get a lot of vote quickly and potential a lot of clarity. technically in eastern tile zone portions in indiana, polls are close. same in kentucky.

no numbers yet. there's a house race and potentially a bellwether house race in northwest indiana in gary, that's in the central time zone. there is a congressional district in indiana. starting at 7:00 eastern time we're going to be looking at. let me give you a sense a where we'll with looking in the early hour, hour or two of election night where i think most the action is going to be starting at 7:00 eastern time. start in florida. i think florida is the most efficient big state, maybe the most efficient state period when it comes to counting votes. everything but the panhandle, so 90% of the vote in florida is going to get reported at 7:00. every county within 30 minutes is supposed to report out all of its early and mail vote, and what that will be is about two-thirds of the vote give or take in every county. in that 7:00 to 8:00 hour, you're going get the majority of the vote in florida. as soon as that's reported by

the counties they then begin reporting their same-day. you're talking about an imbalance of how parties vote. in florida, there's a bit of a difference. democrats tend to do better with that early mail vote that you'll see first. the republicans do better with the same-day. but it's not -- we don't see huge splits, but typically expect the first number you see in counties in florida to be the high water mark for democrat. one of the places we'll pay attention to, miami-dade. this was the shift we saw in 2,020 in miami-dade 2016, hillary clinton won miami-dade by almost 30 points 2020, trump brought that down to a single digit loss for republicans. this is 2.75 million people. 70% hispanic. this has a lot to do with the national story line we have been following the last couple years about are hispanic voters moving the bid away from the democrats

toward republicans. want to see what miami-dade look like tonight. republicans have been talking about outright winning miami-dade county in the senate and governor as race. there's also a competitive house race there. so we'll be keeping an eye on that at 7:00. also 7:00, critically closing in, georgia. the governor's race and the senate race everyone's talking about here. the conversation you're having about, the order that votes are released under the new voting law in georgia, it's explicitly in the law, they encourage the counties to begin tabulating -- this is the keyword, tabulating instead of processing the early and mail vote an election day. and the secretary of state's office in georgia has been encouraging the counties to do this. meaning you get the flood of votes cast early or by mail. in the past they waited till the end of the night to count it up.

in 2020 that result in the long delays. there's the possibility it could be like florida in georgia tonight. where you get the mail and early vote especially in the big counties early. we'll see if that happens, but that possibility exists, and if that's the case, you could see especially in the atlanta area, you could see the democrats jump out to an early lead, and then it could be same-day vote coming after that, the republicans catch them. that's one thing to keep an eye on there. another place we're going to be looking at 7:00 that i think is going to be key is new hampshire. the official poll closing time is 8:00. it is done by city and town. these are not counties. this jigsaw puzzle you see is every city and town in new hampshire and they each set their own poll closing time. most have chosen 7:00 p.m. eastern. what i think is going to be significant here with them cities and towns we're going to get some complete results, i think. it will be scattering, but a lot of places will be able to report

out their complete results. and once we have complete results from a city or town, we can compare it to the last election. so, the interesting thing here in this new hampshire senate race, which emerged as an unexpectedly close race, it's a sthat donald trump lost by seven points in 2020. so bolduc, the republican, wants to be running in any given city or town five points better than trump. we're going to begin to see as cities and towns report, is he doing that? is he falling short that? could tell us how new hampshire's going. those are some of the big things we're going to follow at 7:00. at 7:30 we're going to add in votes. north carolina, the polls will close there. mail will come first in north carolina. also at 7:30, the polls are going to close in ohio. that senate race between j.d. vance and tim ryan. again, i would expect the democrats in early and mail the vote that's reported out first,

so, i would expect that to be the high water mark for ryan. is vance able to overtake him in ohio? all sorts of house seats here. in v.a., new hampshire, ohio, all sorts of house seats where you could be getting results in the 7:00, 7:30, 8:00 window. >> steve, i have one thing to confirm with you, one thing to ask you, and one thing to prompt to you talk about. >> the thing i want to confirm is that you're saying that while we have been talking the about the so-called red mirage and in a lot of places the first vote that gets counted will tilt towards republicans and democrats reminding us to prepare for that. you're reminding national weather service florida and georgia specifically not only will we get votes soon, but that's likely to be high water mark democrat, the most democratic leaning vote totals in one big dump. >> definitely in florida. in georgia, that is the theory. this is the first time they're running the election with this

encouragement to the counties to do this, so we're going to see if they do that. in ohio, yes, that was the case in 2020. you saw joe biden had a lead in ohio until more than 50% of the count was vote in the same day came last. what you'll see in this idea the red mirage, republicans get out to a big lead and democrats try to play catchup, i think the states where that's likely to happen is pennsylvania, michigan, and wisconsin. wisconsin because the biggest city in the state, milwaukee, takes the absentee vote, vote by mail, and bring it to a central processing facility and count it at the very end of the night. we've seen twice now in wisconsin, in 2018 and 2020, the election was decided -- razor thin margins, it always is in wisconsin drn in 2018 when scott walker lost, in 2020 when donald trump lost the state by 0,000 votes, you saw the state shift from red to blue with that milwaukee absentee that was

counted very late at night. that's typically how it goes in wisconsin. there are states where i think that pattern will obtain this year. one of the key differences, like i say is states that have early voting, in of had person voting like north carolina, florida. republicans seem okay with doing. that you don't see a huge partisan divide with in-person early. where you see the huge partisan divide is mail. that's just overwhelmingly democratic, and pennsylvania offers no in-person early voting. so you're either voting by mail or voting same day. and so that's where you really get those dramatic splits in a state like pennsylvania, so it really depends. you can see the numbers move all around. but i think pennsylvania has the potential, again, to be one of the state where is the same-day gets tallied perhaps faster than the mail. although again they're saying it's going to be different this year in incentivizing the counties to go faster. >> we'll take a quick break. we're starting to get some of the first real vote in indiana.

we're going take a quick break. again, some of indiana is closed but not all of it. looking at that after the break. live to nevada, where democrats are hoping to hold on to a senate seat, and there's a hotly contested governor's race, too. it's call ahead. first vote is coming. we'll be right back after this. s (vo) with verizon, you can now get a private 5g network. so you can do more than connect your business, you can make it even smarter. now ports can know where every piece of cargo is. and where it's going. (dock worker) right on time. (vo) robots can predict breakdowns and order their own replacement parts. (foreman) nice work. (vo) and retailers can get ahead of the fashion trend of the day with a new line tomorrow. with a verizon private 5g network, you can get more agility and security. giving you more control of your business. we call this enterprise intelligence. from the network america relies on. my husband and i have never been more active. shingles doesn't care. i go to spin classes with my coworkers. good for you, shingles doesn't care. because no matter how healthy you feel,

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it wasn't paris. do you know where that was?

it was an eiffel tower but it was a little one. that was nevada. let's go live to jacob soberoff. everyone is telling me you're in a place that was having unexpectedly big turnout. >> reporter: one of the election observers said i'm not in the paris hotel but i'm at a mall in henderson, called the galleria. we can give you a shot from up above at what's happening here. it's called a voting center i don't know if you can see me, but i'm waving to you from the american flag. this is a vote center. there's 30 polling places. green lights are open polling places. the red nights are people who are actively voting right now. and this is a unique and novel concept because voting centers are centralized voting locations.

there's 128 of them in clark county, nevada. usually there'd be 914 election precincts but people can vote at any of the centers here in clark county, and people are turning out. people were worried about this. five, ten years ago this was not a concept. i was a reform advocate. we talk about ways to get people to turn out. ft. collins, colorado, pioneered to concept, and with covid you see this all over the country. the turnout here is massive. i know we've got to go, but come with me. merry christmas, and happy hanukkah to my people. it's early yet in the season, but you can see, over here, rachel and everybody, in that room, the line snakes all the way around, and then when you come over here, inclimate weather. the line stretches all the way to the door, and this is the back of the line right here. if anybody was worried about turnout, joe gloria, the county registrar was worried people talk about the integrity of the

election would scare people away. that is not happening here. >> let me ask you about the vibe and how people are doing. that's obviously a very convenient and comfortable place to be queued up, but people are lined up. have spirits been high? anything tense? >> reporter: people are terrific. dave. he left. it was about an hour from the back to the front of the line. that's when the line started at the door, now it starts -- let me see if i can ask this nice person. you're at the very back of the line. how you feeling? you worried? >> no. >> reporter: how long you ready to wait for? >> as long as it takes to make things right. >> reporter: appreciate you. what's your name? >> jacob. >> reporter: jacob. great. as long as it takes to make things right. >> we'll be back to you certainly so we can get new front of that christmas tree again so we can blackmail you with the photo later. let's go back to steve kornacki at the big board.

i said before the break we have first real results from indiana. what have we got in. >> election night as officially gun because we are getting returns and the colors are starting to light up. this is indiana senate race. this is not expected to be competitive. you see the republican todd young early off to a good start for young here in indiana. what we are going to be looking for in indiana, and again this is a split poll close state between central and eastern time zone. this is the congressional district. this is gary/hammond area. frank mrvan. this is a district that voted from joe biden by eight points in 2020. changed a little bit in restricting. a little more republican friendly. this is one of the targets republicans have. they invested heavily. 7:00 p.m. eastern we're going to start getting results here. this could be a bellwether

district. right now just getting numbers in indiana from the eastern time zone. also starting to get numbers from the other state with 6:00 p.m. ending. rand paul running for re-election, the heavy favorite to get re-elected. but what we're also following in kentucky tonight is if you remember over the summer that abortion referendum in kansas, that was a constitutional amendment in kansas that would have put into the state constitution that there is no right to abortion. went down to big defeat in kansas, as you remember this summer. essentially that identical proposal is on the ballot in kentucky tonight to put into the state constitution that there is no right to abortion. so one county -- this is an overwhelmingly republican county in eastern kentucky. rand paul is winning by 30 points. how's that ballot proposition?

50/50. yes would enshrine in the state constitution there's no right to do that. anti-abortion is yes, pro-choice is no. you're seeing a split between the republican/democrat vote and how that ballot proposition is doing. so again, would be county in kentucky but we're going to be keeping an eye on that proposition all night. the rest of this hour the board could light up and we could get clarity on that ballot proposition. >> thank you very much. on the issue of abortion, there's a couple different ways in which that plays out tonight. one is how it affects peep's overall propensity to vote and who they vote for. it's a nationally motivating thing for a lot of voters, and there's been interesting questions raised about whether or not polling accurately captures people's feelings about abortion. nicolle wallace and joy reed talking about that last night. there are five states in which abortion is literally on the ballot. michigan and california and

vermont vermont there are propositions on the ballot that would enshrine reproductive rights in the constitution. it will be interesting to watch those in the abstract. i mean, or in themselves and also how they match to the votes in the rest of the states and everything else that is on the ballot. all right, we've got much more to come this election night. i believe we've got a shot here of mcallen, texas. big lines in mcallen in south texas. texas is one of the only states in the country where early voting numbers actually didn't keep pace, didn't set a record compared with the last midterm in 2018. whether or not that maps itself to their being large a larger numbers of people on election day, we'll see. this is the line in mcallen. stay with us. scenarios in mcallen. stay with us scenario ♪ ♪ keep it fresh with colorful cookware.

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i had no idea how much i wamy case was worth. c call the barnes firm to find out what your case could be worth. we will help get you the best result possible. ♪ call one eight hundred, eight million ♪ . welcome back. it is 6:36 on the east coast, which means that in about 23 minutes we are looking at poll closings from a bunch of big states. we are looking at poll closings at the top of this hour in georgia, the rest of indiana, kentucky, south carolina, vermont, virginia, almost all of florida. that's going to be happening tonight within the next 23 minutes.

i'm going to turn things over now to my colleague alex wagner. she's got her team of political insiders surveying the landscape. >> thank you. i'm here with jen psaki, claire mccaskill and former rnc chair michael steele here in the clubhouse. okay, you are connected to important networks. what are you guys hearing at this moment in time when so much is on the line? jen? >> i'm hearing a lot from democrats about their concern that because they've run such a big push on mail-in ballots and early vote republicans are going to try to claim victory early, because in a lot of key states, pennsylvania and wisconsin and others, this a count the early votes and vote by mails later and sometimes that takes hours or days some this is really an area that democrat after democrat has brought up with me is when they want to watch, when they want to call out as they see that on twitter and other places. >> part of the reason those ballots are counted late is

because republican-led legislatures made sure the process of counting those cannot happen until election day. >> that is exactly the case in pennsylvania, which is such a key state tonight we're watching. they are not counted today because of the republican legislature there, and that is also a place where this type of game playing could happen. >> and we're seeing cries already of fraud from the president and republicans across the country. senator mccaskill. >> people feel good about georgia. i have been talking to the back room at the democratic campaign headquarters. they feel good about turnout of young people, about the turnout of african americans, especially in georgia and pennsylvania. a little worried about nevada, but what's weird in nevada is it's hard to tell how many people are showing up that are dropping a ballot in a ballot box as opposed to waiting in person. so what you're seeing in terms of early numbers are those people who have vote in the

person, it's very hard to tell what that turnout actually is. and when you see jacob's reports, it looks like they're line up for miles and everything's fine buck there's a little bit of worry about the turnout in nevada. >> i was just going say, and the democrats have been focused on getting people to turn in those ballots by just dropping them off. the culinary workers, which is such a huge and important union, especially in clark county. vegas, baby, the big place where democrats are reliant on, they're doing that, picking them up legally -- >> not ballot harvesting. >> dropping them off. those also we don't know the numbers on, so there's a lot of early numbers and democrat numbers we don't know. >> so just keep in mind, the people that we are expecting are dropping those ballots off may be disproportionately voting for democrats. >> yeah, because maga has been trained not to use a drop box. they're out there with guns and camo. they're not going doing that against their own people. so they have been trained not to use mail and drop boxes but to

show up in person, so they're really going to be cynical about claiming victory before they can, or hopefully never. >> mean mile. >> meanwhile! uh-oh. >> on the other side of town, folks are fat and happy. i mean, it is -- i'm hearing and seeing a lot of big wave, big night enthusiasm from republicans right now. and it's interesting, it's on two fronts. trump is kind of pushing a separate narrative that you see playing out with focus like kari lake, who are, you know, nitpicking every little detail claiming or setting up a narrative for fraud. a lot of mainstream guys are not pay attention to that. they don't want to get distracted by that, but that's going to come into play later on should we go into day two or three. >> what if you win outright and you have been claiming fraud. >> i'm glad you said that. >> so awkward for kari lake. >> is that fraudulent, kari

lake? >> kari lake is interesting, because she's saying that this system, all the issues she's had all day long are problematic, so when she was asked just recently, should we, then, if you win, request whether or not you won? she said, it's not that, i'm just concern about the people administrating the election. so she's trying to cut it both ways. and probably will be successful in doing that, because if she wins she can say, great election everybody. go home, right? >> then remember, in maricopa county, that's administered by republicans. it's not democrats that are administering that election. >> exactly, but that's lost them a lot of voters. the other side of that same block, though, is you're now seeing the jockeying beginning for leadership. claire and i had a little conversation last night off air about the future of republican leadership in the senate. josh hawley tonight comes out and declares, i'm not supporting

mitch mcconnell for speaker. i talked to some folks about. that mitch ain't worried, but you got to go through the motions. >> no, you said he's going to be speaker. i don't disagree. >> scott wants to cut social security. >> josh hawley, we saw him run already, so we're not worried about josh hawley fighting. >> he has to win. >> we have the video tape of josh hawley running away. >> but there's excitement. there is a little bit of measuring of drapes right now. a little bit of preparation. and so you're going to see this, i think, by late evening, certainly tomorrow, begin to shift into how we govern and what we do and what's the next step. i don't know how much governing we're going to hear since top of mind is impeaching joe biden for many in the house. but there's fat and comfortable, let's just put it that way at

this hour. >> cautiously optimistic and fat and comfortable. somehow those two realities are going intersnekt a matter of hours. >> don't forget, we still have the west coast. >> we do. >> thank you all for your insighs and insider information. rachel, back over to you. >> we will be checking in with the political insiders, those political professionals who have been there, done that, and escaped with their lives over the course of the evening tonight. at the top of this hour, we're going to start seeing the first results coming in from one of the tightest races in the country, which could determine of course who controls the u.s. senate. these are the poll closings we are headed quickly toward. we'll be right back. stay with us. ight back. stay with us a. for adults who are undetectable, cabenuva is the only complete, long-acting hiv treatment you can get every other month. cabenuva helps keep me undetectable. it's two injections, given by my healthcare provider, every other month. it's one less thing to think about while traveling. hiv pills aren't on my mind.

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just moments ago we had a live look at a big healthy locking line of voters in mcallen, texas. we're going there with priscilla thompson who's live at the polling place. what are you seeing? >> reporter: yeah, rachel, that line has only gotten longer since we lost showed that shot, and i'll give you a look at it. we're at the end here. we'll walk all the way up. all these folks come nothing line to vote after getting off work. wanted to make their voice heard on election day. we've got a high profile governor's race and three congressional seats that are kpi here in south texas, and this line has been out the door

through the entire day we have been here. this is as far as we can do. you see the line curving around inside once they get into the door. i have been talking to voters all day as they're heading to the polls. for the people i've spoken to they've talked about the economy, about immigration and crime, many of those people tell me they're supporting governor abbott and republicans this time around. and in fact i'll swing the camera around to show you, there are a whole host of supporter of these various candidates who have been out here all day just shouting at this line of voters. a lot of governor abbott supporters saying, vote your pocketbook. look at the gas prices and trying to make that last-ditch effort to voters. i've always been speaking to democrats are saying abortion is the number one issue on their minds and they're going to be supportive democrats. and i was struck by one conversation i had with a voter, her name is marissa. she's a teacher here and she told mow that she's supporting

beto and she's for a woman's right to choose although she's very religious. she feels that's a decision between a woman and god, not a woman and the government. i was very struck by how she was thinking through that decision. this is what things are looking like here with just an hour to go until polls close. back to you. >> priscilla thompson, thank you for that. fascinating. it's nice to see, i have to say, seeing the lines of people, and people who have been there all day. she said the lines have been long, and to see the electioneering going on. but not being tense, just a lot of enthusiasm. that's what we're looking for. i also want to talk about some of the data that comports basically with what priscilla was describing. some of the most interesting exit poll data is on the issue of abortion. i want to show you this and get your take on it. in terms of the nbc news exit polls today, voters were asked what was the most important issue to you. and overall, the number one answer was inflation at 32%.

look how close abortion is. abortion at 27%. and then everything else much lower, crime, gun policy, immigration down at 10% and 11%. but abortion right up there with inflation. and then there's a qualitative question, follow-up question on the subject which i think is also interesting. how do you feel about the supreme court's decision to overturn roe v. wade? and the exit poll on that is striking. i mean, the largest response there, 39% of voters saying they're angry with the supreme court's decision to overturn roe. another 21% saying they're dissatisfied with it. put those together, that's 60%. in terms of the people who are enthusiastic or satisfied with it, that comes to less than 40%. so these exit polls are suggesting, as priscilla was saying what she's hearing from people in line there to vote democrat, that abortion is motivating and emotionally so. >> we saw this, you know, we live in an era in which it's

hard to know how accurate polls are, but we know when there are special elections, that is hard data. we saw it with the special elections, the kansas abortion vote, a number of elections in new york state, new york's 19th election that was run largely on abortion. not polling, not error, the actual voting of the actual voters. one thing that jumps out is if you're a political practitioner, you can tell me if i'm wrong, you want to talk about issues you're winning 60/40, and you don't want to talk about issues they're winning 60/40. much of a campaign is a battle space in between them trying to get you to talk about the issue they're winning 60/40. there was a a conversation about dems talking too much about abortion. they're winning the issue 60/40. of course they want to center it in people's minds. >> just real quick, it's not even centering it in voters'

minds. you talked yesterday about people deleting their apps to follow their periods. what i'm hearing anecdotally are people who are angry, and the thing is, it's not just a matter of what issue you think is most important. it's what issue will make you vote. what are you voting on? are you voting on the thing that you're the most passionate about. that is what i think campaigns are caring about. i'm just fiercely texting with people. long lines in dane county in wisconsin. they're expecting potentially 85% turnout. campuses is where they're seeing a lot of energy. they're having to add poll workers in some areas of wisconsin because they have same-day voting registration in wisconsin. we don't know what that is, but i know it's passion that makes you actually register to vote on election day. and so it's what you're most passionate about. and i think for women, for a lot of women, this is a foundational issue of whether you own yourself, whether you're religious or not. >> and the seismic thing that we'll be talking about for a long time is that 60% of voters

view the supreme court as a dead political weight. that is a -- that might be the most seismic shift in issue in my political career. republicans used to vote on supreme court. you don't have 60% of voters saying we don't like it. it is now a liability against republicans. and you know, karma is a you know what, but this supreme court was made by mitch mcconnell. it was made by donald trump. and they now are sort of choking on it. they deserve everything they get. >> we talk about the democrat crisis. it's also a crisis of legitimacy for the supreme court. mitch mcconnell stole a seat. donald trump got fewer votes and put three people on it. people went before the senate and said, under testimonial oath of perjury, they wouldn't change roe. first thing they did was do that. you see a wave here. inflation is huge, we have an inflation problem here and many countries. but 60% say legal, 60% dissatisfied or angry. a huge issue. it's not going away. >> it plays directly into a lot

of states where governors races are here because it's going to be up to individual state policies whether abortion is banned. it puts the abortion issue front and center in every governor's race where this is potentially in play. we'll take a quick break. when we come back, we'll have poll closing in a bunch of big states. stay with us. ♪ my name is austin james. as a musician living with diabetes, fingersticks can be a real challenge. that's why i use the freestyle libre 2 system.

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over rand paul. with numbers we have reported now, that's what you're seeing. to that abortion proposition. you see the no side is running about ten points right now ahead of the democrat in the senate race. again, this is disproportionately democratic volt we're getting in kentucky, but we're going to keep an eye on this one. as this fills up over the next hour. i'm looking at the clock, in less than 90 seconds, florida, virginia, new hampshire, we're going to start getting georgia, start getting a lot of numbers and a lot of very important places. >> as we head toward those 7:00 poll closings, again, keep in mind what we're getting is results as they come in. some states give you a lot of results at the very beginning. some states, they will trickle in, and in state by state, there will be a partisan skew depending on the state as to whether or not democratic leaning votes come in first or republican leaning votes come in. you can try to be your own mini steve kornacki and memorize these things in 50 states so you

know exactly what colored glasses to put on when looking at what percentage of what precinct is coming in at what time, or you can take the hopefully more relaxing course of looking at these things which we would recommend, which is be patient. wait until a lot of the results is in, and by the time you get an nbc news election desk characterization of a race, you can be confident that the election desk is more than 99% certain that that is how the race is going to turn out. so again, patience is a virtue in all circumstances. patience is probably a health necessity on a night like tonight, as we're starting to get our first poll closings. at 7:00, we're looking at georgia, indiana, kentucky, south carolina, vermont, and virginia. and we will give you these results as they come in. the nbc news election desk feeds these to us just as we get there. but at 7:00 on the east coast, as polls close in those states, these are the results as we can

see them now. in the georgia senate race between democrat raphael warnock and republican herschel walker, this race is too early to call. in the indiana senate race, the projected winner of the indiana senate race is incumbent republican todd young. in the south carolina senate race, the projected winner is the incumbent republican, tim scott. in the kentucky senate race, this race is too early to call, but republican incumbent rand paul is projected as leading in this race in kentucky. in the vermont senate race, this is also too early to call. this is an open senate race in vermont. this is too early to call, but the democrat is characterized as being in the lead. this is the overall picture of the u.s. senate at this hour. blue seats held by democrats, red seats held by republicans, all the ones that are grayed out are those yet to be decided. right now, the democrats hold 36. the republicans hold 31.

that means we're looking at 33 undecided seats. >> in the governor's races, at this hour, we're looking at the georgia governor's race. this race between incumbent republican brian kemp and his democratic challenger, stacey abrams. this race is too early to call. the georgia governor's race at this hour. south carolina, south carolina governor's race, we have an incumbent republican, henny mcmaster, against his democratic challenger, joe cunningham. this is too early to call in the south carolina governor's race. and in the vermont governor's race, we have an incumbent republican governor in vermont, his name is phil scott. he is facing a democratic challenger, brenda siegel, in the vermont governor's race, this is at this hour too early to call. so as promised, at 7:00, lots of poll closings. but only a few of them called. steve, what are you looking at in terms of what's interesting here? >> we do have our first result in from georgia. partial result from one county, just to show you.

richmond county, this is where augusta is, a democratic area. state-wide, that is all the vote we have right now, but as we said, in georgia, and i think this is a difference from what we saw in 2020. you can expect a lot of the earliest vote to come out to be more on the democratic friendly side. that is not the same day vote coming out first in a lot of counties. you see in richmond county, 41% of all the vote in one batch. that's early, that's mail, that's what they're able to tabulate today and get out. this county in the 2020 presidential election was a 68% biden county. it's that much more favorable to the democrats with this big early batch of votes that they're able to report out. so again, the name of the game here in richmond, and we'll see this replicated in county after county, this gives you a preview of perhaps how to watch georgia and the results coming in. when the same day is added to this, does this number tick down? how much does this tick down? i think we'll see that story in a lot of counties in georgia

tonight. you're seeing the senate race right there, obviously we're following the governor's race. you see abrams tracking a couple points behind raphael warnock, something we're going to be looking at, gaps in the polls between warnock and abrams, between kemp and walker. is there a gap, how much of a gap? that's another story we're following. the other thing we're waiting on and i'm checking to see if anything is coming in in florida. broward county, one of the biggest counties in florida. where ft. lauderdale is, like i said in florida, every county right now in this time period, about 30 minutes outside the panhandle, will report out its combined early and mail vote. in this case, more than half the vote in one of the biggest counties in the state, broward county. heavily democratic. you have crist here with a 25-point advantage over desantis. let's put this in some perspective. broward ended up in 2020 with

biden at 64.5% for biden in 2020. that's where he ended up. like we said, this first batch of vote that you get, this big chunk of vote in these counties in florida, is generally going to be the high water mark for democrats because what's to come after it is going to be the same-day vote. as you have been talking about, the same-day vote tends to be more republican. expectation that this would be the high water mark and it would come down from here. we'll see if that's how it pans out tonight. that's how we have seen it pan out in the past. but we are getting, you see that in broward, and i think we can expect in the next few minutes a lot more of these counties to be lighting up. we have got the governor's race. we have got the senate race. you can see demings running in that county, about a point better, val demings, the democratic challenger. macko rubio. running about a point better. we have gainesville, where the university of florida is. again, this is a core democratic county. so you're getting a lot of democratic vote out of there. you see, i said it's going to

start lighting up like a christmas tree. you're getting the early and mail vote out. now you're getting gulf coast, north of tampa, you're getting into a core republican area. and you can see huge republican vote there for rubio. he's running at 67%. desantis is tracking a point above him. you're adding all of these together, state-wide. this process is going to be playing out pretty intensely over the next few minutes. the other thing to keep in mind in florida is, it's significant for control of the house. because florida gained a new congressional seat in redistricting this year. and they also have one of the most aggressive remaps, redrawings of the political map. the governor, ron desantis, insisted on a map that even some republican state legislators were uncomfortable with, that functionally could result in drawing several new republican districts here. actually, i can call up and show you, there are a couple places here. for instance, the fourth district, this used to be a democratic district represented

by awl lawson. awl lawson is now running in the second district. he switched to run in a pretty heavily republican district. his district was the fourth and was basically blown up in redistricting. instead, the fourth now is a district that donald trump carried by seven points. so if the republicans are able to win this, this is suddenly friendly territory. this would be a pick-up for republicans. similar story in the seventh district of florida. again, you can see here, under these lines, donald trump won it by five points. it was previously a democrat by ten congressional district. here we're getting a big number out of georgia. let me call that up here. we're getting fulton county in right now. yes, we are. okay, we're getting, this is -- well, it says 8%, but i think we're getting -- let's take a look here. okay, yeah. this is it. we got the mail and the early. again, this is what we were

talking about happening in georgia. so you're getting that combined mail/early that they were able to tabulate all during the day today. this is atlanta, the biggest county in the state, heavily democratic. and again, you can see here, joe biden finished up in 2020, and remember, he won georgia by 11,000 votes in 2020. so fulton county was a big part of that. you have about 72.5%. with the mail and the early vote, warnock is starting out in fulton county at 75.3%. so now what's going to happen, and it may take a little while because they have to bring all of these same-day counted, they have to bring it to a centralized location. it's sort of a bureaucratic mechanical process. we'll start getting the same-day vote. the question is does that come down? if so, how much? and if you're warnock, you don't want it coming down any farther than that biden number where biden finished in 2020. that was just enough for joe biden to carry georgia in 2020.

take a look at the governor's race. and again, you see, that's interesting. you're seeing a bit of a gap here in fulton county. again, core democratic county. i just showed you raphael warnock over 75%. stacey abrams in the governor's race only getting 71% from the initial batch of democratic friendly votes. that already puts her under that joe biden number in fulton county of 72.6%. so again, she's now got a challenge of hoping for a different pattern in that same-day vote perhaps than is expected. but again, this area right around atlanta, there's an expectation or at least certainly a distinct possibility we'll get a lot of these big counties right around atlanta, a lot of them are very democratic friendly. we'll get big batches of votes like this early on in the note. you see some of the more rural republican counties, now they're coming in too. this is where republicans counter the democratic strength in the atlanta metro area. you can see brian kemp in pierce

county, small, but to give you a sense, donald trump finished with 87.3% of the vote here in 2020. kemp starting out at 89% in the governor's race. herschel walker starting out at 87% in the senate race here. again, they're going to sort of be -- you have republican strength in the rural areas, democratic strength in the core atlanta metro area. republican strength sort of in the next ring, the next layer of county said talking about a place like cherokee county. interesting to see how that plays out. right now with the fulton county batch that came in, it's a tremendous state-wide lead for raphael warnock, but the question becomes what's going to happen when the rurals start coming in. again, you're moving more into here's a good example. this was an overwhelmingly republican county. and you're getting -- we're not -- 5%, we can't tell you if that's just mail and same day, or what that is. we have to check on that, but that should be a republican

county historically. that's what's going on in georgia. we'll check back in on florida and see if we have more. we do, okay. what we've got here is pinellas county where st. petersburg is. this is, again, the mail vote, this is the early vote. this is the bulk of the vote, and you have in the senate race, demings leading that portion. she gets 50.8%. joe biden finished in pinellas county with 49.6% in 2020. remember, joe biden lost the state by a few points. so if you're a democrat, in any given county in florida, you want to be running two or three points above the biden number from 2020. so demings is starting out in pinellas county about a point buv that with largely same-day vote to come in. that's a challenge. take a look at the governor's race right there. now, this is charlie crist's home base. you see crist is starting out a point ahead of where biden was. again, with the same-day to

come. we have a congressional district that's based in pinellas county. let's see if we've got -- we don't. we have the 12th district. i want to see if we've got -- okay, this is interesting. the 13th district was charlie crist's district in congress. he left this seat to run for governor. this is one of the seats that was changed dramatically by the remap that ron desantis insisted on. it was a democratic seat. it was charlie crist's seat. basically what happened was portions, heavily democratic portions of pinellas county, st. petersburg, were removed from the district. it moved to the northern part of pinellas county. more republican friendly part of the county and became a trump plus seven district. and luna who has tied herself closely to trump, emerged as the republican nominee in the district. what you're seeing here, it's interesting, we have got close to two-thirds of the vote being reported in.

this is, again, the early and mail vote. and the democrat with a lead of four points over anna paulina luna. we now have about a third, a more than a third of the vote to come in. it's going to be same-day vote and it's a question of will that be enough to lift luna over eric lynn. there was a little bit of talk in the run-up to today that this district, drawn so aggressively to favor republicans, that luna might be testing how far voters were willing to go. and you see from this early number, it does look competitive there. so that's one we'll be keeping a close eye on. there are several other districts in florida as well that were drawn for the same purpose that 13 was drawn. >> steve, can i ask you a georgia senate race, if we could go back to georgia for a second. the third party candidate there, the libertarian candidate, isn't expected to be in contention to win that seat. but in georgia, the performance of that libertarian candidate is

important because if that candidate, chase oliver, does well enough to deny either warnock or walker 50% of the vote, that is what will determine whether we have a run-off in that race, correct? >> exactly. so 1.3%, we'll see where that ends up landing. the higher that number gets for oliver, i mean 2% to 3% potentially, then you're in that zone. this is what we saw in both senate races in georgia in 2020 where you had the candidates, the republican and democratic candidates finishing 49, 48%. and a libertarian gobbling up about 3%. that's what sent both of them to run-offs in 2020. so 1.4% right now. it would have to be really tight between warnock and walker, which is absolutely possible. it would have to be really tight for that 1.4% to keep anybody from getting to 50%. we got something else coming in? oh, we just got -- i'm told we

got miami-dade. this is a big one in florida. okay. we got -- yeah. so let's put this in some perspective. miami-dade county has 2.3 million people. in 2016, this was a democratic county by 30 points. hillary clinton won this county by 30 points. miami-dade is 70% hispanic. it began shifting to the republicans in 2020. donald trump only lost it by seven. and look at this. in the mail-in and early vote, which again, tends to be more democratic friendly, marco rubio, the republican, is outright leading in miami-dade county by seven points over val demings, the democratic challenger. in the gubernatorial race, interestingly, we don't have numbers from miami-dade county. >> there they are. they popped up for a second. was that it? >> no, i flipped up to broward to try to reset it to see if it

came in. let's try to reset it again. i'm not quite sure what's going on there, but we do have them in the senate torial race. this is miami-dade, where it ended in 2020. biden got 53%. this is what miami-dade looked like back in 2016. that national conversation the last two years following the 2020 election about the inroads that donald trump and republicans made with hispanic voters in 2020, one of the biggest places you saw it in 2020, you can see it on your screen right here, was miami-dade county. 70% hispanic, miami-dade county. they cut it down to seven. republicans had been talking optimistically in florida about the possibility of outright carrying miami-dade. you're seeing that early number. i'm sure they're looking at that number and they're thinking that's very much a possibility tonight. let me check one more time to see if we have gubernatorial numbers. i want to find out why we don't. resetting just state-wide,

that's what it looks like in the gubernatorial race right now, and statewide, that's what it looks like in the senate race. a scattering of votes. >> i'm going to jump in to say one important thing about the florida results we're looking at. if you are a florida voter, keep in mind while we're talking about all the results and all their exciting implications in florida, the northwestern corner of florida, the western most communities in florida, are still voting. polls are still open in the panhandle. the poll closing times are split in that state, as they are in several other states. we're going to take a quick break. stay with us.

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nbc news can now project that there is a winner in the kentucky u.s. senate race. incumbent republican rand paul is the projected winner. he has been re-elected in kentucky. his democrat, challenger, charl booker, would have been the first african american senator from kentucky, but rand paul has held on to his seat. this is a look at the united states senate at this hour. democrats currently control 36 seats. republicans control 32 seats.

32 seats remain undecided as does overall control of the chamber. >> now, nbc's vaughn hillyard is in paradise valley, arizona. that's part of maricopa county, arizona. and republicans have just filed a lawsuit there to try to keep the polls open later. vaughn, what can you tell us? >> several of the republicans expressed concern that there were voters who left lines, specifically earlier here today, when about 20% of the voting centers in maricopa county had tabulating machine issues. this in arizona. arizonians vote by paper mail. this is an important distinction here. everybody votes by a paper ballot. the issue was the tabulating machines at some locations were not accepting some of the ballots and rejecting them. to note, those county officials say those votes will still count. they will just not be tabulated until tomorrow when they are taken to the main tabulating center in downtown phoenix. but what you saw were some

situations in which there were lines extending from 30 minutes to an hour long as those county and elections workers were trying to figure out the situation. now, i want to be clear here. because there are folks like arizona republican secretary of state candidate mark finchem who were suggesting there was nefarious action taking place on part of county officials. usually the republicans outnumber the number of democrats who vote in person. even kari lake, i specifically asked her, yes, it is never excusable to have long lines. never ideal. at the same time, there should be no suggestion that this will not be an accurate election here in the state of arizona at this time. kari lake agreed with me on that point here. so as we look to see how this lawsuit develops to try to keep the polling locations open and ultimately the tabulation of these ballots and it's important to remember kari lake herself acknowledged this does not mean there will be an inaccurate

count. >> and vaughn, just to be clear, was the issue with the tabulating machine sorted out? were they able to resolve the issue and they're just concerned people who may have left when the problems were still happening need extra time to come back? >> that is the primary concern. we don't have widespread report of people leaving en masse. to be very clear, this is a small subset. across the county, about 223 voting centers, folks can go to any one. it's not like you have to go to your neighborhood voting center. they were urging folks to go two miles down the road. but the polling locations were set to close in 90 minutes and the county, to your question, they have fixed the problem. this is very minutia, but ultimately, it was a printer problem. some of these machines were not printing dark enough ink, so therefore, the tabulating machines were not able to read them. they have since fixed the printers and that's why you have seen these lines go down and this return to normal, but that has kept -- not kept republicans

from trying to keep them open at least a little longer. >> vaughn hillyard in paradise valley, arizona. a republican lawsuit to keep the polls open longer in maricopa county. i want to go back to steve for a moment. i understand you have more florida data. >> we were talking about miami-dade county. we saw marco rubio leading in the senate race, and you can see the governor's race, this is the state-wide number. desantis, seven points up on crist. we do have miami-dade in for the governor's race. look at that, again, the mail/early vote portion, which is usually the most democratic friendly, ron desantis with an eight-point advantage over charlie crist in miami-dade county. again, this is a county that was 30 points democratic just in 2016. the other implication for this comes at the house level. talking about battle for control of the house. there is a congressional seat in miami-dade that democrats have been targeting, maria salazar, a freshman democrat, who was elected in a bit of a surprise in 2020, they have been targeting her, democrats have,

but again with this strong republican performance, you're seeing in the votes in miami-dade so far, salazar out to a double-digit advantage against her democratic challenger, and also just to update you as well, anna luna, the trump loyalist running in the 13th district that charlie crist used to represent, has now pulled ahead. this again as the same-day vote is counting in florida. this is if luna is able to win there, that would be a republican gain in the house. they only need a net gain of five seats to take the house. the idea that ron desantis had was to flip a district like the 13th with the remap they did. everything but the panhandle being tabulated right now in florida. and there is a pattern emerging where both rubio and desantis are running better than trump was in 2020 at this point. >> interesting. we're looking at miami-dade, looking very much like the rest of florida, and florida starting to look like a red state. >> florida is a red state. i think i have said this before. the challenge is, miami-dade has

been trending republican for a really long time. it's been slowly slipping toward the republican party. and it is a 70-plus percent hispanic county. of the people who are hispanic in that county, the vast majority of cuban american. that's a very conservative population. that county remained democratic in the '08 and 2012 elections because of one thing, barack obama. barack obama actually managed to eat into the margins. >> and hillary clinton. >> it's been moving in that direction. and with obama not on the ballot, you know, i have been talking with people who have been looking at african american turnout. the precincts are barren. turnout among african americans is dismal in florida. it's incredibly hard to turn people out, without obama on the ballot. the turnout is anemic. whereas, you know, the conservative cuban american population in miami-dade, they know what they want. and i think the other thing is the mask mandate. one more quick thing. one of the things that is

pulling desantis ahead, particularly in places like miami-dade, was the lack of mask mandates. that was a huge issue for people who run businesses in dade county. a very tourism facing county. and a lot of people there like the fact that he didn't have any covid restrictions in the state during the pandemic. >> desantis is boring trump. he's boring trump. if you watch him talk or you watch 20 or 30 minutes, it's a drier, more elite, more ivy league version of donald trump. so what he's done is become like the chief content officer of florida. and picked these fights with disney, and being anti-first amendment, he's very anti-free speech. that's why he's attacking corporations who say they want to have an inclusive environment for all types of workers. and he says, you will be punished for that position, for that speech. so in all these ways, because he is more boring, c-span is his enemy, if you watch a full speech, but he's found these culture war issues.

trump without any of that flavor, and made himself a national figure through fights. >> but here's the thing, and this is one that i think the first data point -- >> we have a poll closing in 40 seconds. >> what might be a theme tonight, and i'm going to talk to the republicans watching this. you don't need donald trump. you don't need him. he's a weight on you. we will watch candidates outperform donald trump tonight. over and over again. we will watch exit polling that he has a 37% favorable rating, it is crazy if they are about to go ahead and renominate this man, as elections come back outperforming him. >> at 7:30, zee got poll closings in north carolina and in ohio and in west virginia. again, the nbc news decision desk will give us projections as best as they can. some of these may be too early. some may be too close. they will not project a winner in a race until they're more than 99% certain that that will be the outcome of that race. you can have confidence in these projections. at 7:30 on the east coast, in

the north carolina senate race, this is an open senate seat, previously held by the republicans. republican congressman ted budd versus democrat cheri beasley. this race is too early to call. the north carolina senate race. in the ohio senate race, the very closely watched open ohio senate race previously again held by a republican, it is now open republican jd vance against democrat tim ryan. the ohio senate race is too early to call. there is a governor's race where we have had a poll closing as well in ohio. the ohio governor, republican incumbent mike dewine is the projected winner. mike dewine is re-elected as the ohio governor. those are the three races that we were able to make projections for with the polls closing at 7:30. just to remind you, heading toward poll closing now at 8:00, in a half hour, we're going to be looking at alabama, connecticut, delaware, d.c., illinois, maine, maryland, massachusetts, mississippi, missouri, new hampshire, new

jersey, oklahoma, pennsylvania, rhode island, tennessee, and the rest of florida, the florida panhandle that has not yet closed. in the next 29 minutes or so, we're going to have an avalanche of poll closings and new data, in addition to further information coming in on the 7:00 and now 7:30 closings we have just seen. >> can i make one quick point? >> yeah. >> mike dewine is a great example. mike dewine and jd vance are running in ohio. it's a great example of, well, what a difference a candidate makes. mike dewine is an incumbent and jd vance isn't, that makes a difference, but mike dewine is essentially an old school republican in many ways. doesn't mean he hasn't been cut throat on some things. his son is a supreme court justice in the state, which seems bizarre and corrupt, but he's basically a pre-trump republican. he served as ohio senator. he's going to run tonight ten points ahead of jd vance, maybe, 12 points ahead of jd vance. if republicans would nominate more mike dewines, you're going to have a bunch of races in

which there's a literal comparison state-wide between two candidates, one who is a dewine type and one who is a jd vance. the dewine type of republican is going to outperform the jd vance style republican. >> and in that race specifically, tim ryan is running his campaign to get mike dewine voters to vote for him. he's running specifically for ticket splitters, to the point where the thing that might jeopardize his campaign, which people have been praising as one of the better run campaigns is he's so determined to get republicans to vote for him that he ran two ads after he got nominated at the democratic nominee. one of them said, i voted against obama, dot dot dot, on this trade thing. but for black voters in hamilton county and cuyahoga county, all they heard was i voted against obomb. he ran a second ad that said, trump was right, dot dot dot, on chiba. black voters just heard trump was right and a lot of voters who were more moderate heard

trump was right. remember, sherrod brown exists. sherrod brown -- >> this is the sherrod brown question you're talking about. >> people keep thinking ohio is this unwinnable state. i think florida is an unwinnable state for democrat, but i don't think ohio is, because sherrod brown exists. he's never said anything trumpy or sort of sucked up to maga to win. he wins as sherrod brown, who is a pro-labor guy. it's an interesting choice that tim ryan make to try to do those two things, which otherwise a very well run campaign that has been run without the democratic party's help at all. they have not helped him. he's done this by himself. so it's going to be an interesting test of what you're saying. jd vance is not like a likable character that people want to vote for. if they're voting, they're voting out of republican loyalty. what he's counting on is republicans just come home and those dewine voters aren't tempted by tim ryan. >> what about his consistency? >> who is that? >> jd vance?

>> you just alluded to it in terms of tim ryan having to do it on his own. you look at the financial resources that were put into those campaigns. not only did tim ryan have to do it on his own because the democratic senate campaign committee thought that ohio's too red, he's not able to do it, but jd vance was able to tap the bank of peter thiel. just like blake masters in arizona, jd vance is his other candidate, with women shouldn't be allowed to vote and all the rest of it. it should have a lot of baggage attached, but the endless, bottomless checks he was able to tap from that weird billionaire class is, you can't say that's not going to determine it. >> he is seen as this fly-in candidate from silicon valley. he's not seen -- ryan has made himself, he's so ohio, and he's kind of dr. oz, jd vance. so that's an interesting race. >> trump picked him and then

tried to kill him. one of liz cheney's, i don't know if it was rolled out the way some of her other endorsements were, but she made no secret about jd vance being undemocratic. part of the putin wing of the republican party. and mitch mcconnell was loathe to spend dollars there because he had all the access to billionaire money. bl we're going to check back in with steve kornacki who is taking our first look at the night at important house races in virginia in particular, as we look at lines to vote in texas growing even longer, even after dark. also, we have been looking at long lines in henderson, nevada. lots of people still turning out to vote, if the polls are still open where you are and you're in a big line, best thing you can do for your country is stay in line no matter what. it doesn't matter who you're there to vote for, if you're there to vote, stay and vote. we'll be right back.

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let's talk about north carolina senate. i understand you have also got house races to talk to us about. >> absolutely. i think this is a bit of what we were setting up at the start of the night in terms of there are going to be states where democrats jump out to pretty significant early leads. that's what we have seen in georgia, and we see it in north carolina as well. a lot of this has to do again with that very specific vote return pattern. north carolina, another state where it's all reported out through the states, but what the counties do is they tend to send to the state right away the early vote, the mail vote, and then it takes a while, there's usually a lag there of about an hour or so, and then the same day vote starts getting adds in. you're seeing some big chunks of vote come in from some big counties. here's mecklenburg where charlotte is, a big democratic county. you see cheri beasley, she's ahead, running at 69% and change right now. biden finished at 66.7% here. joe biden almost won north carolina. he lost the state by 75,000 votes. shaved 100,000 votes off hillary

clinton's deficit in 2016. if you're cheri beasley, the name of the game in a place like mecklenburg is basically to be, i would say, a point above that biden number. get to 67.5%, 68%. you see with what's coming in so far, she's at 69%. the question is, with what's left to come, which again, will include a lot of same-day vote, does that come down, does that come down under that number? you can see it, i go to western north carolina, asheville, a core democratic area. beasley jumping up to 67%, with that mail, with that early. how far does that come down? that's sort of the name of the game here. go to wake county, raleigh, biden finishes at 62%. beasley starting at 68% here. as that same-day comes in and gets added to the mix, you want to see how far that comes down. again, she wants to finish ahead of biden in all of these counties. that would put her on track to win state-wide, potentially. state-wide, an update, more than

a third in. heavily early, heavily mail. that's the situation for beasley. let's take a look at the battle for the house, though. take us back down to florida here. we can just check in quickly on the senate race and the governor's race. you see double digit advantages for both republicans there. we said florida is a place that the map was drawn by ron desantis and republicans to try to get republicans a big step towards that net gain of five house seats they need to get control. looking at here a list of congressional districts. these are the congressional districts that are held by democrats right now. but that were carried by donald trump in 2020. you'll note that three of them are in florida. and all three of these districts were redrawn by this remap in florida that ron desantis pushed through. for the purpose of flipping democratic seats. and getting republicans toward a majority. let's check in on those three districts. the fourth district, republicans with more than 70% in. nearly a 20-point lead for their candidate. the seventh district, stephanie

murphy used to represent this. two-thirds in and republicans with a double-digit lead. luna in st. petersburg area, she's opened up a seven-point advantage. all three of these if they hold would be flips. they would be republican gains in the house. there's also a new district that florida got because of the census, they got a new seat. and again, the new district was drawn with the idea of getting a republican elected to that new seat. again, with about three-quarters of the vote in, you see the republican candidate leading there. so that desantis map in florida right now looks like it is doing for republicans what they hoped it would. now, the other place where there's some action in the house right now, let's move up to virginia. i'll pull this off the screen. three districts in virginia we're keeping an eye on today. one is the second district of virginia. this is the virginia beach area. elaine lauria was elected in the

2018 wave. joe biden carried this by two points in 2020. glenn youngkin won this by 11 points when he was elected governor last year of virginia. you see jen kiggans, the republican challenger, 22% of the vote in right now, is leading. now, this is a state, and this is a district where the first reported vote may be more republican friendly than the final result. you're going to get more of the same-day vote in the early mix than you're going to get the early vote. so you see kiggans jumping out to a lead here. we'll see, the name of the game here is, as that early vote is added to the mix, can luria get closer, can she hold on here? this is one, republicans at a threshold level tonight. a district that joe biden won by two points. they want to be winning districts that joe biden won by two points. the next level here, a test for republicans, this is the seventh district. abigail spanberger, a democrat, elected in the 2018 wave.

vega, the republican challenger, you're getting a lot of same-day vote here, so that is pushing that republican number very high. this is a district, i'll show you, it's a district that joe biden won by six points. so republicans, it's a little bit more of a hurdle for republicans to get this one. they feel like on a normal night they could get the second, they feel on a good night they could get the seventh and they might have a wave going on nationally, but again, i caution you, that number should come down, both with early vote being added to the mix and also if you look at where the vote is coming in from so far. the biggest place that has no votes yet is the most democratic component of the county that's prince william county. we don't have any votes from there yet. so again, spanberger has opportunities to make up what looks like a big gap there on paper. but that's a key race, that seventh district there in virginia. if republicans win the second and the seventh, that starts to put them on track for a significant night. if democrats defend the second and the seventh, that starts to put them on track for a good

night as well. and then the other test here is the tenth district, and again, this is an area of northern virginia that's been trending more and more democratic. joe biden actually won this district by 18 points in 2020. again, he's about 20% here. democratic areas, early votes a big part of the mix now, you want to see how the numbers evolve, hi they change. this is sort of to me the tenth district of virginia has been kind of the wave test. it's a bides plus 18 test. if we start getting a lot of vote in here and the republican is leading or within say five points, that's pointing to a really big night for republicans. democrats want to win this district, they want to win it big. those are the three kind of tests there we're looking for in virginia. i'm being told we're getting our first reports out of ohio. might as well check in and see what that looks like. that senate race between jd vance and tim ryan. the big source of votes here right now that we're getting in ohio would be columbus, franklin

county, huge core democratic county. you see tim ryan with about three-quarters of the vote. again, in ohio, this is what we talked about in florida, we talked about it in georgia, we talked about it north carolina. the earlier returns, the big batches of votes are going to tend to be early mail votes here. so again, it's going to be expect to see ryan lead in these initial counts and the question becomes the same-day vote, does it give vance enough to get the lead. >> chris. >> can i ask you one question, steve, just to go back to florida in the st. petersburg district. again, i think we're going to end up, one of the objections of republicans in the state legislature and the democrats is the new map reduced the number of black districts. there was a lawsuit under the state supreme court. they refused to intervene, and the supreme court of the united states refused to intervene, so we have it as it is. in that district, can you just show us what that district was in 2020, biden/trump, the new

13th. just to give us a benchmark. >> the new 13th would have been trump by seven points. the old would have been biden by four. >> the new one is basically running with 88% in, that benchmark is hitting around trump's performance 2020 with 12% of the vote left. >> what we have seen is want we talked about. as this percentage has ticked up -- >> that will go up. >> same-day vote. we were at 63% and luna was at about 46 and change. now she's getting close to 53% at 88%. that's the difference between the early mail and the same day vote. >> we're going to take a quick break. when we come back, we're steaming toward 8:00 east coast time, which is very important in terms of poll closings. you have memorized by now, this --gantic list of poll closings. it's the poll courses at eight. we'll be watching with particular interest. the poll closings in pennsylvania and new hampshire, and a lot of states are going to have all the seats in the

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>> in just a few moments, we'll have our 8 pm poll closings. before that, i'm here with simone sanders towns in, most of simone. former obama campaign manager and adviser, david plouffe. and former david congressman, carlos --

carlos, let's go to you first. we'll have two thirds of the vote in florida, what is happening down there? >> florida, florida, florida, that's a word that has been set many times in the studios on nights like this. i think what we are seeing now raises two important questions. number one, is florida still the perennial swing state? it does not look like one tonight. it looks like republicans are putting florida in their column. number two, it'll be interesting to hear what david has to say about this, the obama coalition, hispanics, obama put so much work into growing the hispanic vote in the state of florida for the democratic party. you look at the numbers in miami, they are staggering. is the obama coalition broken? can democrats continue to rely on the coalition? the early numbers tonight, it looks like the answer might be no. of course, we have to see what happens in the rest of the constantly, virginia, south texas, the expanding foe in

arizona, but these numbers are ominous for democrats. >> let's review and refresh focus on terms of those numbers. right now, two thirds of the vote in miami, dave, looks like a go towards marco rubio over val demings in that senate race, a point statewide. marco rubio is up 11 points. a paraphrase the question there, what is the lesson you are drawing here in terms of hispanic vote? >> in florida, it's catastrophic. obviously, we saw greater urgency in 20. let's remember, barack obama won in 2012, basically tied, got over 77 hispanic votes. the abominable in florida is gone. we had to rebuild the net. the question is in arizona and nevada, huge spending bill in north carolina and virginia. what will we see? there i'll be surprised to see anywhere near the erosion we've seen in florida. maybe along the border and south texas, where we saw some problems in west texas in 2020, but this is a massive problem. a look at the electoral college

chessboard ahead of 2024, if you see -- it gives the republicans a huge advantage. look at these numbers tonight, you'll be hard-pressed -- the stay at the economy, who the republicans fall day, there's a lot that goes into that but talk about changeover in ten years, it is historically meaningful, whatsapp and. >> this is an investment issue also, because the democratic party, if you go back to 2018, the national democratic party gave over 1 million dollar to the florida democratic party this year. this year, this barely give 1000. that means pennies for other folks across the state. if you look at the last couple of governor races, were even democrats lost that we're in a path that is point or less, this is not competitive tonight. to me, that means that there needs to be some internal conversations about infrastructure. what does infrastructure look like? the the miami day democratic chair, florida chair, was already out this morning,

basically saying we dealt with what we could, the national folks ever in a sauce. i did that's a real conversation to the point that you just -- >> there is massive message problems with this critical -- in miami-dade, the way to get on top of. >> for additional contacts, republicans used to pray that they would lose miami-dade by less than imaginable margin. now they're winning it by potentially double digits. the change is drastic. >> yeah, simone. >> i'll give people hope. what's happening in florida, the slacking is not in my opinion indicative of what folks who see in the country. florida is special, right? >> thank, you as a floridian. >> they're not the model. they'll be different than they are in other parts of the country where there are strong large latino population. >> what look at a lot more vote, a lot more states to drop conclusions. >> the night is young. simone sanders towns, carlos coppell, thank you all for your

expertise and wisdom tonight. rachel, back to you. >> i pity any of us who are ever described a special way simone just described florida especially. god protect any of us who have that directed at us. i thought that my guts. we're about 40 seconds, 35 seconds from the top of the hour, from 8 pm eastern time, and the importance of 8 pm eastern time is that we have poll closings, but there are more poll closings at this 8:00 benchmark than there are any other time of the night, so we're about to get more projections, some may be too early to call and a number of cases, but we're about to get more projections in more states than we get any other time of the night. again, it o'clock, the key races that will look at here, are places like pennsylvania and new hampshire, where there are close races, but we got a bunch of governors races, a bunch of senate races, and here is what the nbc news election desk tells us. we can tell you about those

races at this hour. 8 pm eastern, in the florida senate race, the projected winner is incumbent republican marco rubio. in the pennsylvania senate race, the very closely watched race there, it is too early to call between democrat john fetterman and republican mehmet oz. it's too early to call in pennsylvania. in the new hampshire senate race, too early to call between incumbent democrat senator maggie hassan and her republican challenger donald bolduc. two early to call in new hampshire. in the alabama senate race, alabama will have a female elected senator for the first time, republican katie brit is the projected winner of the alabama u.s. senate race. in the oklahoma senate race, there are two of these, this is james lankford, incumbent republican senator running for reelection. he is projected as the winner of this race. he has been reelected. in the oklahoma other senate race, this is a special election to fill retiring senator -- the projected winner in the

oklahoma special is republican markwayne mullin. up to the northeast, the connecticut senate race there, incumbent democratic senator richard blumenthal facing a challenge from leisure levy, too early to call, but senator blumenthal leads in that race. similarly, in maryland, we have incumbent democrat, chris van hollen but van hollen leads in the race against republican challenger, mr. chevy. in missouri, in the missouri senate race, it's too early to call between republican eric smith and democrat judy valentine, but eric schmidt is leading in that missouri senate race. and in the illinois senate race for democrat and commit teddy duckworth is facing a challenge from republican kathy salty, that race now too early to call. looking at the overall picture of the united states senate at this hour, look at that 36 and 36. democrats control 36 seats as to the republicans. there are 28 seats yet the be

decided as his control for the united states senate. now we have a bunch of governor races to project for you. the florida governor race were looking at, the projected winner of the florida governor's race is incumbent republican ron desantis, defeating democrat charlie crist. in the pennsylvania governor's race, it's too early to call between democrat john shapiro and republican doug mastriano, too early to call in pennsylvania. in the maryland governor's race, also too early to call between democrat westmore and republican dan cox, all the democrat westmore is leading in this race. in the massachusetts governor race, again, too early to call between republican jeff diehl and democrat mara healy, but democrat mara healy is leading in the massachusetts governor race. in the alabama governor's race, republican incumbent governor kay ivey is projected to have been reelected as the governor of alabama. in the connecticut governor's

race, it's too early to call between incumbent democrat net lamont and his republican challenger bob stephen husky. in the illinois governor's race, it is j.b. prisoner, the democrat incumbent, who is facing a challenge from republican darren bailey, it's too early to call and illinois governors. race in the main governors race, democratic incumbent janet melas is facing challenge from former republican governor paula page, it's too early to call. . in the two -- too early to call between republican incumbent kristen uno and the democratic challenger thom sherman. although christina knew is leading in that race in new hampshire. it's too early to call between incumbent democrat daniel mckee and his republican challenger -- too early to call in rhode island. in the tennessee governor's race, the incumbent governor bill lee is facing democratic challenger jason martin. this is too early to call

although milley's relieving in the tennessee governor's race. and finally, in the oklahoma governor's race, the incumbent there is republican kevin stitt, facing a stiff challenge from democratic challenger joy hofmeister. the oklahoma race is too early to call. we got a winner to project in the south carolina governor race, the incumbent republican henry mcmaster is projected to be reelected as south carolina governor. as i said, these are the largest number -- arriving at any one time on the clock tonight. joining us now is steve kornacki. what's interesting in those races and some of the tight races we're starting to get more data. >> an exciting hour here, certainly. a blank screen in pennsylvania, but i got it up because we want to see here if we get an issue -- one thing that may be different from 2020, from those that remember that pennsylvania took at the saturday at 11:30, it might be right here, look at this. allegheny county, the second

biggest in the state, where pittsburgh is, western pennsylvania, what you're looking at here is the mail-in vote for allegheny county. they just counted it up and released all out and one batch at the start of the night. i was saying what might be different from 2020, this might be different, we make it a lot more of the mail vote early in the night. again, remember the pattern in 2020 in pennsylvania is that we won't get much of the mail-in vote on election night or early election it. we are getting largely same-day vote, heavily from republican counties and joe biden spent the week getting mail-in votes in one county added another and eventually taking the state. this is not different. now you've got 150,000 plus mail-in ballots, just released from one of the biggest democratic counties in the state, allegheny county, western pennsylvania. john fetterman, mayor from braddock, pennsylvania in the area, 84% of that mail-in vote. remember, this dynamic of different voting modes having

wildly different results is more pronounced and more extreme in pennsylvania than just about any other state because most other states have a middle ground. most states have the mail-in vote and at the same day vote. also, the early vote. there's no early vote in pennsylvania. it's either male impala or you vote soon day. the folks who vote by mail, this is how heavily democrats -- give you a sense of this. overall, this is a democratic county, it was biden with 60%. fetterman is almost 25 point about the number because we're looking at mail-in ballots. now, in a county like allegheny, if we see this happen in other counties in pennsylvania, this story is going to be that same day vote, how much does that fetterman number come down as the same day vote, which we do expect to be strongly republican? how much is that fetterman number come down? remember, joe biden won pennsylvania statewide by 80,000 votes, so fetterman essentially won in every given

county where recall of the numbers like this, fetterman wants to basically be at that biden number, if he can maybe afford to be a fraction of a point lower, give or take. in allegheny, that's what we will be looking for the rest of tonight as the same-day vote gets counted. it may take a while to get the same day in. we're also keeping an eye on philadelphia county, the other and the state. are they going -- they talked about releasing today publicly about 100,000 mail-in votes pretty quickly right off the bat? that's why you may see a big batch of democratic votes. keep in mind, the mail votes, of philadelphia, they had 100,000 they talked about releasing shortly after posing, that would not be all of them. there was that procedural change if you filed today, under the train of litigation. there be about 20 or 30,000 mail-in ballots still to come after. but this potential here in the next few minutes, there's the potential here for another hundred thousand or so mail-in

ballots to be imported out of philadelphia. we may be in a situation here. we'll see what else lights up in pennsylvania. we may be in a situation where john fetterman banks a significant advantage in this running tally here and then the story becomes same-day vote elsewhere. is that going to be enough from us to overcome? it's a reverse of how it all played out in 2020. let's keep a close eye there on pennsylvania. they're going to shock to me in the air if we get philadelphia. i promise we'll go straight back to if we do. want to update you on florida. you see rubio and desantis the clear winner. the other thing we're tracking in florida, house seats. again, to update you here, now, it's been projected in the 13th district, ana polina luna has been projected to be the winner of the house race. you see the gain, this is again for republicans. this was the c held by charlie crist. it was redrawn at the

insistence of governor desantis to favor republicans. in light of, that crist shows the road for governor this year. anna polina luna picks it up. republicans needed a net gain to gain the house. there's a game for them there. here's another one, district stick was drawn, newly created district in florida, it came to see because of redistricting. it was drawn in favor of republicans, republicans when it. that's again for republicans there. you take a look at -- here it is, the fourth district. again, this was a district representative by a democratic congressman, a heavily democratic district, lines were dramatically redrawn to favor republicans and here it is, the republican candidate aaron beane has one. that is a net gain for republicans. the purpose of this map, rhonda scent is pushed through politically with to help republicans along towards that goal of getting five seats in the house. i just showed you three districts that republicans have not picked up seats in florida. one other state here that we

have neglected tonight, and i don't want to neglect further is new hampshire. we neglected it a bit because it's a very slow count. we're hoping for it to be quicker here in new hampshire, so it's a scattering. oh, we just got philadelphia. i'll come back to new hampshire. >> for new hampshire. >> here we go, here's philadelphia and what we got here is about 61,000. they're telling us 100, 000, but we got here about 62, 63,000 mel votes reported out here. again, it's a 50,000 net gain here for john fetterman, mel votes coming out of philadelphia. you've got the two biggest counties in the state, philadelphia and allegheny, and we know in philadelphia that there are tens of thousands of mail-in votes that are still to come, but they're going to look like this. they're going to be hugely advantageous for democrats. with only accounted right now, this is what the statewide foot looks like in pennsylvania. it's an advantage starting at

over 160,000 votes for fetterman over us, still to come will be same-day vote. the same day vote in philadelphia, we'll get mel from all the other counties in the state plus the same day. again, where these counties this big reporting out this much mail in vote, it favors the democrats by this margin, and it sets the stage again, the storyline will be following tonight for those who remember the 2020 election in pennsylvania, may well be the reverse. i think the storyline tonight might be, is oz on the strength of saint david able to catch up with fetterman who gets again, the early mail reports, that we did not see in 2020? >> steve, i'm saturn to you. just for a call, in the new hampshire governor's race. i would only interrupt you for this purpose. the new hampshire governor's race, we have a projected winner, republican incumbent chris sununu. he has been reelected in new hampshire against democratic challenger, palm sherman. sorry, a second calder as well,

tennessee governor race, incumbent republican governor, this time in tennessee, bill lee, is projected to be reelected against his democratic challenger, jason barton. that's calls for the tennessee governor's race and the new hampshire governor race, two republican incumbents they're, holding on to their seats. start the two have interrupted, i know talking but -- it was a great segue. >> here we go, it's limited in terms of -- a star on the governor's race because you can see what is limited is coming from more democratic than republican. sununu was doing so well in it, but he's actually trailing in the tally. he's trailing in republican threshold so much, but i think that's interesting in terms of taking an initial look at the senate race because the senate races one maggie hassan is running in 2016. she won in a speaker in 2016. new hampshire nearly went for trump. the margin was a couple dozen

votes that hillary clinton won the state by. a swing towards biden by seven points in 2020, and then the senate race in the last couple weeks has been a mystery. national republicans thought that pulled a loser in the race, and they start seeing polling, and this might be close, might be competitive. it's very early. again, these are disproportionately democratic areas reporting, but i want to show you, we have three places where we do think -- these are all cities and towns. these are up big counties. i do want to show you, there might be the start of a -- little to new hampshire, we think we have basically all the votes counted here. hassan beating baltic in littleton, 50 to 46. number one, that is on the biden number for hassan. it's a little bit ahead of it. biden, remember, when the state by seven, so if you're don bolduc, you want to be over performing donald trump in any given city or town in new hampshire. in fact, bolduc is actually

slightly underperforming trump in littleton. it's a big contrast as well with the governor's race. sununu is ramping in littleton. new ipswich, small town here right on the massachusetts border. sununu is ramping. you take a look at the senate race, -- but if you take a look, trump got 67% here. baltic needs to be running for, five, six points ahead of trump. he's probably going to do better than that in a place like new ipswich. then you take a look at new -- we think it's all in here, a lot of small towns but again, biden 65 point a 2020, hassan will do a couple points better than joe biden did here. again, bolduc has to be a performing trump, so these are very early returns here. you see a gap between bolduc and republican governor -- he was heavily favored in the race, but that's what we'll be looking for, more of the cities and towns in new hampshire.

is baltic a performing trump? we have three talents with complete results, and so far, he's not in any of them. there's a lot more to come, but that is what we will look for as the night progresses. by the way, we're taking a look more in pennsylvania. again, what you see here is mail in vote so again, cumberland county, right outside harrisburg here and you see fetterman with 74%, a place where trump carried the county, biden only got 44%, but you're seeing mail invoked at reported much earlier this time around than in 2020. you're seeing the same thing here, clinton carries a small county, the same story, warren county. mail-in voting was brand-new in pennsylvania in 2020, they were flooded with ballots because of the pandemic, a lot of counties did not know how to handle it, and i think what you are seeing here is some counties made adjustments here to get reported out much faster. again, you now see fetterman

with the advantage there of about 177,000 votes over us. obviously, very early, this is all on the strength of mail-in ballots, so the story is going to come in pennsylvania. is the same day vote? will there be enough same-day vote from austin catch up with john fetterman. i'm going to update you talking about house races to, the gains that republicans made in florida. we also talked about the three districts that republicans are targeting in virginia. i wanted to update you first on the tenth district outside of washington d.c.. and you can see when you look at this earlier, the republicans had the it's now flipped around. what happened is loud in county, we got numbers out of latin county the put a democratic incumbent jennifer wetston a head. -- a flexed in wins, democrats are happy, but democrats want to see this number get much bigger with the remaining vote, the tenth district because this was an 18 point biden district. if cow is able to keep the single digits in the mid low single digits, republicans will

take that as a good sign nationally for them. we got even more of the vote in in the seventh district here. this is where abigail spanberger, against ashley vega. you can see spanberger had more votes come in, more early voting process inching up here, but still, it's trailing in the count. and continuing now with more than 50% of the vote, this might be getting scary for democrats in the second district here down by virginia beach. jen kagan's, the republican continuing within advantage over elaine luria, a democrat. there are three twos here. it's on a decent night nationally for republicans, the expected to win the second on a good night. the expected to get the seventh to. on a fantastic night, they talked about winning something like the tenth district, so i give you a sense of the tears of expectation that are set by those three districts, but that is where it stands in virginia right now, just checking back in atlanta, georgia.

>> steve, i want to ask you to check into the north carolina senate to. >> statewide here in georgia, we're getting the late metro area, and you can see in these counties, what is happening here, i mentioned this at the beginning, we got mail in vote, we got early vote, and that's what a lot of the counties are releasing. they're not all releasing all of it. what we're finding out is this is the first time that this is being done like this in georgia, some are releasing just a male, some are releasing just the early, some are releasing both, but you are seeing the democrats been pretty big advantages, especially in these big counties immediately in the atlanta area. one thing to keep an eye on, if you look at the statewide numbers here, i think one thing to keep an eye on here is the gap between warnock and the senate races and stacey abrams in the governor's race. so we have warnock running statewide with 53.8%. same ballots, same number about coming from this in places in the governor's race, and you see abrams is running about

three points behind. kemp is running about three points ahead. that's a three-point gap between the senate race and the governor's race in georgia right now. but again, a lot of this is the stricken now, the democratic event as you see, a lot of the early mail vote, especially in the atlanta area. we'll get a lot of rural vote to. one county, by the way, this is one that will be key, we might as well fly and put the senate race up here. notice, there is a six or seven gap here between kemp and herschel walker in cherokee county. this is one of the biggest republican plurality producing counties in the united states of america. cherokee county, again, north of atlanta here. donald trump got -- won this by 40 points, close to 40 points in 2020, but that's not up to par with the republicans. you take a look at this, trump got 72% in 2016, and you go back to 2012, republicans used to one close to 80% air. so this is one of the reasons

why joe biden was able to win in georgia in 2020. he upland out in cherokee county, but he did not get blown out like democrats used to get blown out. i think this is an interesting number to keep an eye on as the rest of the vote comes in from cherokee, is that herschel walker able to get past that trump 2020 number. that's what he's got to do, because it was not enough for trump to win the state. walker's got to get past the trump number. you can see already in cherokee county, brian kemp's pass that number. you asked about north carolina, we put that on the screen here, because you can see that more have tempo is in cherokee county. bc continues to lead the county but it gets closer inside ten points, now single digits. what's happening again is the same-day vote is beginning to get added in initially reported. let's take a look at the initially reported, in a 0.2% margin. look at some of these

mecklenburg county, i don't think much is changer. let's look at union county next door. you need conte is a bit like cherokee county that i was telling you about in georgia. you're right outside of charlotte, a core republican county but donald trump kind of underperformed in 2020. remember, trump won the state in 2020 by 75,000 votes barely. this is the kind of county here where ted budd, he wants to be running ahead of the trump number on the strength of the mail and early vote. that's basically what you are looking at in union. he's a 59, so the question, is when the same day is that, it can he exceed the 61.4? if he does, that's a good sign for budd him statewide. we look at wake county, where about where we were. the question is in north carolina, same day vote, legit for budd. will it be enough to lift impasse cheri beasley? >> 44 we move on, we do have a projection to make in the

massachusetts governor's race. the democrat maura healey is the projected winner in massachusetts. this is a pick up for the democratic party in terms of governors races. the previous republican governor elected not to not to run for reelection. jeff diehl was the republican challenger here. neither isn't a comment, but this is a pick up for the massachusetts governor's race. chris hayes, go ahead. >> i wanted to mention, go back to new hampshire look at their own numbers another one a comparisons, that's a common not and comment. that does something with kemp and her shock. or you have camp running at walker would six or seven points. looks five or six points, bolduc, chris sununu, they desperately wanted him to run for the senate race, he's very popular. we projected him as a winner tonight, again, he called trump stunts. he disavowed although election denialism. he's going to run considerably higher then balled up. one of the themes we're seeing in the early data here is that

there is a tax on a general election popularity of being the maga candidate. >> kemp is a great story. kemp as culpable, -- predicated on the big lie of which camp certified -- kemp is running ahead of herschel walker and kemp was an air primary against a maga candidate. >> we have one more caller need to make which is just happened in a last second, if we bring that up on the screen. nbc news cannot project that in vermont, the projected winner in the vermont senate races democrat peter welch. again, we also have a call and the massachusetts governor's race. this is a senate at this hour, democrats with that peter washed victory in vermont, holding 37 seats in the senate. republicans holding 36, 27 seats still on the side. it will take a quick breath, we have another poll coming closing coming up in six

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>> just coming up on 8:30 eastern, right now, this is the stats at the pennsylvania center, is too early to call between democrat john fetterman and republican mehmet oz. we're also looking at an ohio senate race that is similarly characterized.

it's too early to call between democrat tim ryan and j.d. vance. one of the interesting house races to tell you about in florida's tenth district, we're highlighting this race because maxwell frost is the projected winner here. he's a democrat in this race. he's 25 years old. he's the first representative of gen z to be elected to the united states congress. he is 25, which means he was born in 1997. [laughs] i think it's mathematically impossible. >> it is. >> you did not do the math right. >> no, i did not do the math right. >> it's 81 -- i'm joking. >> i literally have liquor older than him. it does not go bet. >> he has a great story. he's a march for our lives guy, radicalized by the stoneman douglas shooting. he's an incredible kid. young man -- >> the feeling of malaise and giving up on the system,

obviously, there's another generation behind. >> 8:30 pm eastern, we had one big poll closing in the great state of arkansas. we got a senate race in a governor's race in arkansas that we have been watching, and the nbc news election desk tells us at this hour, it's too early to call between incumbent republican john -- and democratic challenger natalie thames. usman leads. in the arkansas governor's race, that race is also characterized at this hour as too early to call, although republican sarah huckabee sanders is leading in this race. against them or catch christians. this will be huckabee sanders taking governorship of governor -- a job previously have by her father, mike huckabee, which is an unusual succession in american politics, but these do things to happen. >> not that unusual. >> father, daughter, sitting governor, i don't know. >> can we talk about maxwell frost again for a second. i just interviewed him when we were down in orlando, and he

actually experienced gun violence in his own life in orlando. it's this really dynamic young kid. he's going to be succeeding val demings and united states senate, representing that same orlando area in the house. he is kind of the hope of what you could eventually develop. as they went forward, democrats are hard to let go of florida. they don't want to let it go. he's one of the young activists in the state that is galvanizing around the issue of got violence in a way that you're seeing that generation do, and that haul march for our lives, those kids, they really are the future. if there ever is a time where florida will trickling back to being a normal political state, and not just a far, far right state, which it is now, that generation will take their. >> if you want to get the agents of climate change in gun violence to be national issues, a whole generation -- he is an avatar of that generation, especially coming from florida, right? this is how you get the issues to the bucket conversation. >> steve, coming out of the break here, we took a quick

look at the status of the pennsylvania senate race and the ohio senate race. obviously, i saw the culture on both of the races. what can you tell us in terms of an update? >> again with the story here in pennsylvania, with one exception right now, is that you are see mail vote get reported here in a lot of places in the county for that significant event it's. you do see one republican area reporting out here and oz getting the jump. it's not all going to come into order, but this is the kind of pattern to also need in a county like this. he's going to need soon devote become and huge for him to offset this. one thing we're seeing that relative 2020, fetterman is running in the mail-in vote before joe biden did. it may be a difference of a few points, but there is going to be a lower share of mail votes, particularly --

loose what we are seeing out of allegheny, if it is any indication. dozens more popular -- same-day vote gets tabulated and pennsylvania, there will still be a massive gap between the mail in vote and the saint david. but given how democratic the mail-in vote was in 2020 and in 2022, if there are fewer people to choose by mail and voting same day as that, the same-day poll may be less republican, less strongly republican than we saw in 2020. if you factor in 2020 numbers along that lines, he may have to adjust it. at least what we're seeing out of allegheny county. checking next door in ohio, again, about a third, a little less than a third. primarily mail-in votes, the set that would give tim ryan the advantage. the question will be sunday offset for events. there are three key houses, in ohio here, as we talk about the battle. let me take you through those. number one is in the toledo area, this is marcy captor, been in the house for four years, a democrat.

she's redistricting dramatically, dramatically changed her district. look at the redraw lines. this is actually a trump district. heroin jr majeski, claims about his military service, barring his campaign, national republicans walking away from here, you see a huge lead for captor but to right up the cap is in the district here, you're looking in mail in early votes. let's see what happens is the same day comes in in this district. they're running in hostile territory, thought to be, could still be in trouble but decided they are one luxury john it was not a bit potential end of her career. -- that one for trumpeter points. democrats, you're getting bad news in florida earlier, they badly need marcy kaptur to hang in ninth. another interesting race is done in the cincinnati area. here's steve chabot, a longtime republican incumbent.

the lines in this district change dramatically, it's anchored in cincinnati now. this is a cincinnati city councilman greg landsman running against shiva. it's a long serving republican trying to get reelected again. you're looking at mail in voting here, so it's a high-water mark for lands it but can chabot get to 50% and won this? he's facing a real challenge here. this is key for democrats because, again, republicans need a net gain to get the house. we showed you that map john in florida, and the republicans are doing everything they hope to do all of it. this would be a net gain for democrats. if landsman beats chabot, you see an indicator next landsman's name. that's how they could offset republican gains like we saw in florida earlier, because if we zoom out here and take a big picture look, we arrange the districts nationally dish away. this is the lowest hanging fruit from republicans. these are democratic seats, right?

they were one by trump in 2020. already, we showed you in florida they took to adam. those are three games for them. in the ninth district of ohio, we showed you with marcy kaptur -- another case where the map was dramatically redrawn. jim cooper, a long serving, like three decade incumbent, used to represent the fifth district. the lines will change so dramatically, that it became a trump double digit district. he announced his retirement, you see in the early midterms, it was an expectation of a republican victory here. you see in the early returns, the republicans far ahead. that could be a republican gain, similar story in georgia, the six district of georgia, you see mcbath, a democrat they used to represent the sixth district in the redistricting. it got merged with the seventh district, two democrats forced in the same district. she's won that primary, running tonight but the six district was changed into a republican plus 15, trump by 15 district.

as a result, you see no, a quarter of the vote in, republicans with a double digit advantage in the sixth district. you see the potential for republican gains, a lot of this because of the way that the map was reconfigured, democrats need something like that from the cincinnati seat. to start offsetting this. >> i want to update us on on another call in the governor's race in the great state of vermont. they have a projection, the republican governor of vermont, phil scott, the incoming governor, has been reelected. in their four month governors race. he's defeated democratic challenger, brenda segel. will sneak in a quick break, just to keep you in the loop in terms of what we were heading towards, 9:00 poll closings in lots of the most closely watched states in the country. at the top of this hour, we're looking at poll closings in wisconsin and michigan and arizona, colorado, iowa, kansas, louisiana, nebraska, north dakota, south dakota, texas, wyoming, that's all coming up

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race, this is the rhode island governor's race. nbc news election desk and not project that the incumbent democratic governor of rhode island, daniel mckee, has been reelected against his republican challenger, ashley careless. rhode island governor, that is a democratic hold for the

governor's race. as i mentioned before the break, one important poll closing that we are heading towards the about a quarter our, at the top of the hour, 9:00 eastern time is the great state of arizona. one of the things that we have been watching over the course of the day is the far-right and the trump wing. remember, the republican party focusing on arizona and issues iteration of election denialism stuff. joining us now is ben collins, a senior reporter for nbc news. he focuses on the internet disinformation and extremism. ben, i know you've been keeping an eye on this tonight. >> look, induced the ban in world, this is the big thing in arizona. he has had pretty much every person in the area on his program tonight. the mic pillow guy, roger stone, charlie kirk, who runs turning point usa, and they're appointing specifically to arizona. they say there are problems with all these things, all day long, they've been pushing this, since early in the morning. they've said that they've had

videos of specific tabulation boxes, which is a shredder, all these things. really wild stuff. it is appearing over the course of the night, this is their firewall. this is where if they lose a series of states, this might be their last real place to cause chaos, cause mayhem, and they're doing that with lots of weird viral tricks on the internet right now on steve bannon show. >> ben, disinformation and misinformation are two different things. one is when you get something wrong, and the other is when he deliberately get something wrong or create something out of whole cloth and cortisol is something. you are receiving wholly invented the news, wholly invented false stories about arizona, or are they just spinning and distorting what amounts to small normal distortions in the electoral process over the course of the day into something that seems more if areas than it is? >> it is the second thing,

rachel. with this stuff, they take a grain of truth, which is that there were a couple of tabulation boxes that were malfunctioning. they took a video of a person announcing this did a group. they said, basically, -- we'll deal with it later. they will be adjudicated, hand counted at the end of the day. that was not enough for some people on the internet who had to dan wildly hypothesize about what was really going on the ballots, because yet they remember the backdrop of this, there was a very big documentary -- i put documentary in quotes there, a foam called two dozen meals -- that alleges that very ridiculous see that there are, what he calls, meals, people dropping off things in the ball boxes in all these things, vic but both of the country. it's been widely and continuously discredited and debunked. you can watch don oliver. that has really taken hold in

an underground way on the pro trump at dinner, and people have been looking around for anything funny that happened, any small thing that could be blown out of proportion, and that's exactly what is happening in arizona. >> let me ask you one last question on this, that is when we talk about stuff like this being focused on in arizona, because of our experience there in 2020 and what we saw at some of the sites in arizona, one of the things to think about is the fact that arizona is an open carry state in a lot of far-right in arizona has been willing to use their open carry privilege as a form of political intimidation. i had to ask if any of the discussions that you are seeing about, this as he described in the benin sphere, the trump wing of the internet and social media, whether they are asking for in real life protests? whether they're asking people to physically go to a place and do a thing, given what they are hypothesizing and distorting about arizona election time?

>> in the weeks before this, they were literally surrounding ballot drop boxes at the request of people associated with the better, people going on his show saying we need mule watchers, need people to watch these ballot drop boxes. people did show up in -- outside about drop boxes as a way to intimidate people outside pulse. that was the effort, and now, steve bannon, he knows where galanis. these people consistently know what's legal and not legal to say at the moment, but if you go to the extremist forms, places like the donald form, for january six was planned. they talk about how voting does not matter, it will come down to weapons, anyway. that is the worry, that once those people endorsed pisses get the message from steve bannon, they can take it from there. >> ben collins, nbc news senior reporter and the disinformation and extremism being done, invaluable. keep a number, as they're

watching this stuff happen, and you think that there are things that we need to let people know about, as we watch election it's come in. interrupt us, let us know what is happening. thank you. >> arizona's trump swell. arizona, arizona, arizona. there's no one more subservient to trump's message then kari lake. the fact that arizona is already the epicenter of the big lie 2022 is not an accident. >> the cyber ninjas are coming together this time. >> again, as the january six committee presented all the evidence, oh yeah, they did that in public. we're covering arizona tonight, they did it all in public. >> remember, this is the state of freedom up because it was called first, the first date that shocked him by the fox news desk, which victim out all the more. >> it's also the important point to bennett, this is an open carry state. this is where we watch drop boxes fully armed. it's a state where disinformation universe is the most potent because kari lake

on down, that entire ticket are election deniers, each one more extreme than the last. i was quickly looking to the transcripts some of the things that kari lake is saying tonight, they are panicking. you don't panic like that if you feel you are in a position of strength in terms of the actual election. >> we should also note, who said this before, the america counting board of elections, to conduct themselves admirably, if i should say. they are republicans. we covered on our, we're sitting at this desk not, this desk, a different-esque, but in 2020, with all the crazy scene outside their offices. that was alex jones there, right away. there was a wild scene outside their. i saw them today, they invited local news to watch them tabulate early, the absentee ballots. they really conducted themselves, from what i can tell, with integrity and transparency, and they have been gunned for by bannon and

lake. >> remember the cyber ninjas -- >> we cannot forget, when i went to wisconsin to talk to election officials, the level of security they have in place in arizona, they have plastic jersey barriers, plastic barriers around the election office. they have plain clothes police officers. they said they would have them at every polling site. this is the harvest of the seats on by trump. >> if you're wondering how all those election deniers from the top to the bottom about in arizona are doing, we don't know yet because polls are still open -- poles are still open in arizona. they closed in about ten minutes, some are going to take a quick break so we can come back, get you those poll closings right at the top of our. we have a lot more to get to, the noisome, stay with us. stay with us.

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this is the senate at the senate at this hour. both parties holds 37 seats. there are 27 seats still undecided, as is the overall control of the united states senate. steve kornacki, or coming up on 9:00 poll closings. before we get there, do you have an update on the new hampshire senate race? >> again, the vote count is coming in slow, but we have 20% now. these are all the individuals, cities and towns. this is the one that we are taking, a pleaded, compared to 2020 to get a sense. concord is a good example. this is the third largest in new hampshire. obviously, the state capital. maggie hassan, the surprise she is winning but compared to 2020, remember, donald trump lost estate by seven points. he got 45% of the vote. if you're dumbledore, you need to be running on average five plus points better than trump in any given city or town. he's running three points behind trump in concord.

we showed you disperse earlier, and rochester again trump actually cared rochester. we think the votes are all in rochester, bolduc, action of a put under trump. go to the republican area, small town here, ossipee, but trump won it, bulldog short of the number, he has to be doing better than this. the wildcard in new hampshire remains a towns along the massachusetts line. these are some of the largest insulated populated, largely insulated populated towns in new hampshire, a lot of them traditionally republican. lot of them still voted for trump, so you got to see bolduc has big numbers there, but he's not getting what he wants so far in new hampshire, also good news for the democratic congressman, chris pat, who represents the eastern half -- we look at the clock, we have some big once, i do want to update you on those three critical house races in virginia. let's tick through them, again, through republican targets here. this is the second district

near virginia beach, we have three quarters of the vote in right now. elaine luria,, jen kiggans, would be the republican if she gets. it that estimate is a little off. you can see that came down a bit, the confusion here is this is the seventh district and tenth district just north of it. the share prince william county, so what is happening here in the seventh district, as you see, it's a big blue area, there's a lot of votes to come in prince william county, and its absentee vote, so it'll be heavily democratic. there's also little independent cities, geographically, fredericksburg. there's absentee vote to confirm fredericksburg as well. so this big opportunities remaining on board for spanberger to race that deficit. this is 99%, but i showed you where the vote could still come in. so there's an opportunity there -- 1500 foot deficit. in the tenth district, what stint by six points here. again, in --

already had by six. there will be more votes, still be absentee, from prince william county, so i think democrats are good at ten, if you optimistic about the seventh, but they're in trouble in the second district of virginia right now. >> briefly, steve, the of time to check in on the kentucky portion ben. >> the vote has been slow in kentucky, but here it is, a quarter of the bill is inaccurate now. it's feeling at the moment, but it's close. it's 53, 47. i am looking at where the vote is coming in from here, big democratic county. fayette county, nothing in. yet >> no is the vote against abortion ban, yes is the vote for the abortion ban. >> correct. >> steve, thank you very much. i'm sorry to be abrupt there, but we have a poll closing right now, a whole raft of them at 9:00. obviously, big senate races. georgia senate, pennsylvania senate, ohio senate, one of the other big ones we're watching for is in arizona, and that's one of the races that in which a state polls have closed. at this hour, at 9:00 eastern,

this is what we've got. in the arizona senate race, it is too early to call between democratic incumbent mark kelly and his republican challenger blake masters. too early to call in the arizona senate. in the wisconsin senate race, incumbent republican ron johnson, too early to call against a mechanic challenger mandela barnes. in the new york senate race, the democratic senator leader charles schumer is the projected leader. schumer projected to be reelected, as his kansas republican senator, jerry moran. in the south dakota senate race, john thune, senior member of republican leadership in the u.s. senate projected to be reelected to the. in the colorado senate race, incumbent democrat michael bennett, too early to call against his republican challenger, joe de. in iowa, in the iowa senate race, chuck grassley, the incumbent republican, too early to call against democratic challenger, michael franklin. in the louisiana senate race, incumbent republican john

kennedy, too early to call against democratic challenger, gary chambers. indeed center ice, this is too early to call for incumbent republican john hoeven is in the lead against his democratic challenger. this is the overall state of the senate at this hour. democrats holding 38 seats, republicans holding 39, 23 seats still undecided. now let's have a look at some of the governor races this are. again, at 9 pm poll closing, in the arizona governor's race, it is too early to call between democrat katie hobbs and republican kari lake. in the new york governor's race, it is too early to call between incumbent democrat kathy hochul and her republican challenger, lee zeldin. in the texas governor's race, incumbent republican greg abbott is in the lead, although it's too early to call between him and democrat beto o'rourke. and the wisconsin governor race, it is democratic incumbent tony evers against republican tim

michaels, too early to call. and the colorado governor's race, it is a democrat incumbent, jared polis, facing republican heidi gonell. that is too early to call in colorado. in the iowa governor's race, republican incumbent kim reynolds against democrat deirdre did year, too early to call, but incumbent republican kim reminisce is leading in iowa. and the kansas governor's race, we have a democrat incumbent there, laura kelly, who is facing republican derek schmidt. that is too early to call into kansas governor's race. in the mission or -- democratic incumbent gretchen whitmer too early to call against republican challenger tutor dixon. in the nebraska governor's race, it is too early to call between republican jim pillen and democrat carol blood, again nebraska governor too early to call. in the new mexico governor's race, too early to call between incumbent democrat michelle

lujan grissom and republican challenger mark run kathy. in the soft dakota governor's race, it is too early to call between incumbent republican or kristi noem and her democratic challenger jimmy smith. although governor noem is leading into south dakota governor's race. and lastly, in the wyoming governor's race, too early to call between republican incumbent mark gordon and democrat teresa livingston. although republican incumbent mark gordon is leading in the wyoming governor's race. few -- >> good job. [laughs] >> as i mentioned going into the. every race is important, every state is important. everyone in these races, it's the most important thing going on in the lives, but we have the senate races that are so important, both to the states and to the whole country, we don't have a resolution yet in pennsylvania. we don't have a resolution in ohio. we don't have a resolution yet in georgia. we don't have a resolution in georgia, and those are for the ones we're watching tightly.

there's nothing that suggest that this won't be a long night for all of those races, and they ought to be settled, basically, before we know what happened in the united states senate, unless this is a price. >> a long week maybe. >> maybe a long month. we might be sitting here till december. >> before we do that rundown, it's interesting to be looking at those new hampshire senate results. i think republicans thought that they kind of lost in the primary there. they got the candidate in john bolduc, who they thought was not going to be particular competitive. he's lost other races in new hampshire before. he was kind of a late bloomer, and i thought at the end that he might have a chance about knocking off maggie hassan. obviously, this is not gonna, it's too early to call, with only a quarter full in. but what stephen speaking out in terms of bellwether communities in new hampshire, is looking strong for maggie hassan there. >> he's running so far behind sununu, who won running away. i think the point crusades was making all evening is that there is a real doubt there between people in the context of these teams running at more normal republicans and the maga

candidates. they're not doing very well. >> as a result of that, we're seeing some early seeding in -- >> pennsylvania, georgia, ohio -- >> that's what tim ryan is counting on as well. >> consider what we should, but normal pattern, be seen tonight. we should be seeing a lot more clear and easy republican wins, in a first midterm election for a president, that's normally what happens the other party picks up a lot. -- that was a place they should have been able to pick up a senate seat,. i'm occupying to cross a seat so, all continue -- wanting to watch here is what donald trump has done to the republican party created some candidates who probably would lose the trump choice of when the democrats, and then the republicans, who are outperforming donald trump in the states that they are running in, showing as chris's argument is that trump is

actually a week on the party, the stakes tonight for the nicest senate are greater than they have ever been in the history of control of the united states senate, and so, this is what we are here to watch. >> you can see that and bolduc scamp in. he is the guy on tuesday that was in an election denier, and then the next day, he was literally like, kind of kidding on hold up. he understands the political reality here. don bulkheads never been a great candidate. he pledged loyalty to donald trump, and we see where that has gotten him. also maggie hassan is the governor of the state, let's not discount that as a pro worker seat, they could see to have. >> i would also say, if what you guys are describing, is how the night and for republicans, and the night is young, the month is young. but if it goes like it looks like it's going, and there is not a giant red wave, it is more like a red ripple, they don't win seats that they should have won in circumstances that are overall

macro favorable to them, then we are going to be in an interesting situation where trump looks like he wasn't of a truck -- and desantis looks like he wired florida so that republicans can't lose their. in terms of the power center in the republican party, obviously, there's no lost between trump and desantis already. -- mean but also resonates, but it looks in terms of pure power politics, it looks like trump picked a lot of fights that he lost and it cost the party a lot of seats in a lot of power, and desantis pick fights that fairly or not, he won, and it earned a party more power. they'll put more pressure on rational republican voters to switch horses, to figure out a way to put trump behind them. >> they could have another incentive because what happens tomorrow is that the window opens up again on the possible criminal prosecution of donald trump. in this political season of us

prosecutors backing up for 60 days, what a campaign is going on, that's over tomorrow. donald trump has picked fights very directly, pick fights with the federal prosecutors into his possession of those documents. he is fani willis, fulton county in georgia, who has a strong case against him already. we don't know if he's going to be criminal defendant trump before the republican field for presidency emergence. >> he might run. >> that's right, he may run. >> he might run to keep himself a prison because he understands the political calculus or the doj. then what happens? >> speaking of things we don't know about georgia, steve kornacki, knows things about georgia that we don't yet know, because he's looking -- we've got more data in terms of the georgia senate race. steve, i know you're in the middle of something, but can you tell us what you're looking at. >> coincidentally enough, as looking at georgia.

perfect timing. what has happened in the last animates or so, worker and warnock, switched leads a couple of times here because we got two big reports here, so let me show you them. what we just got moments ago was a big chunk, two thirds you see here of dekalb county, one of the most democratic counties in the state. you can see joe biden won this thing by 68 points back in 2020, so getting again, it's heavily mail-in vote here. but warnock won it overwhelmingly, so that's pushed him back into any vantage statewide. what had happened just before that was that we got a big batch of votes from cherokee county, which i talk to you about earlier, typically, just initially, one of the republican vote producing counties in the country. so walker is at a point, he's actually running under trump's number here, but that was enough to get walker -- to put this out into the big picture, i think the story that is developing in georgia is

this, you take a look at the statewide tally here, you see warnock with that lead. there's a lot of votes coming in from metro atlanta. i think it's a little bit disproportionate. now i certainly expect that to tighten, but you also see a clear gap here between brian kemp, the republican governor who's leading stacey abrams by four points and then in the senate race, herschel walker who is trailing raphael warnock by four points. in cherokee county, it's a great example of this, core huge republican area, walker is running at 66, kemp is running a 72 and a half. by the way, the secretary of state brad raffensperger, who found himself in the middle of that whole affair with donald trump is running at 71% in cherokee county here as well. he's also leading stay wide, so you see a disconnect between raffensperger, and camp, those two republicans and hirschler. we also have, you take a look here, all the vote is maybe in

paulding county. you get a step removed from the immediate atlanta area. corn republican big area though. walker running at 68.8% here. kemp is running a 65 and a half percent. compare that walker number to the benchmark of trump in 2020, that's under the trump number from 2020. again, we're seeing walk at there, some rural counties, or walker puts a perfect numbers. you see he is running behind, lagging behind brian kemp. you see that brian kemp is doing well here in the governor's race so far. it does set up the possibility. we talked about a couple of possibilities here, with georgia split its foot between kemp and warnock? would kemp win the race would, herschel walker fell and be forced into a runoff? the sorts of possibilities come into the mix when you see in places like cherokee county, walker running that far behind brian kemp are now. >> i need to interrupt you for a moment because we have a call to make. nbc news has a projection to

make, excuse me, in a another senate race. this is the, we have a here, yes, we do. this is the north dakota senate race. this is incumbent republican john hoeven, who's projected to be reelected. his democratic challenger was christina christiansen. steve, i'll take advantage of the fact that i had to interrupt there to actually ask you about a different centers. can i ask you about north carolina senate, where we got as cheri beasley, the democrat and republican congressman ted budd. >> let's take a closer look at north carolina and zoom out and head up there. again, the story in carolina has been cheri beasley. there it is, budd as overtaking cheri beasley in the count with two thirds of the vote in right now. the story here mainly has been, if you've been following all night, you know this. the malveaux, the early vote, was the first reported out. a lot of these big democratic areas came out particularly

quickly. cheri beasley let the tally until moments ago. part of that is we get a vote of union county. unique county of charlotte, mecklenburg county, or democratic county. union county, right outside of it, is equal republican county. you see ted budd, in fact, with the update, yeah, you are seeing he's exceeding the trump number. you get that early mail for report out and a place like union county, and it's going to be as good as it gets for democrats generally, and maybe the low water mark for republicans. you start adding in same-day vote, numbers get better for republicans, worse for democrats. this is a crucial benchmark and a place like union county, if you're ted budd in this race. trump won north carolina very close race, just 75,000 votes in 2020, so if you're budd, you need to be hitting that trump number everywhere, and really, you need to be exceeding. it right now, three quarters of the vote, a little more, union,

budd, earlier in the night, we're showing him under this. now he's over that hump number. that's helping him statewide. i will scan the map here to see wake county, this is where raleigh is. we've been stuck at 54% there for a while. johnston county, outside of wake county, a big suburban area. this is johnston county here, the trump number was 61%. if you're ted budd, with the same day vote become in johnston county, you're seeing in the campaign, an opportunity here with the same-day vote to grow that number, you get more number of johnston, to help statewide. democrats would look at, they still have a lot of left in mecklenburg, a lot of o in wake. let's take a look at guilford county, where greensboro is, a lot of out there. there are still opportunities here, but it's that early vote versus same-day vote dynamic here, and that is the same day dynamic ear that is pushing budd ahead right now. >> let's go over to chris hayes,

who is with our team a political insiders. chris? >> rachel, i'm here with simone sanders johnson, host of simone, former missouri -- simone, let me start, you i have a text from a friend's mom from south carolina saying, why has no uncovered north carolina race. we had cheri beasley on, she won statewide, have you looked at the polling in that race? it was consistently a tight race, and there was this sense that i think of like, it can't really be a tight race. what are you hearing of north carolina as the just set with the map looks like? >> so some additional counties just came in before those kind of came, and i was hearing that cheri beasley was actually as performing in counties like alamance, cast well, gates, these are very rural places. the sticks that some people would like to say. now some more red or counties, they come a little bit faster. cheri beasley's campaign and democrats on the ground are telling me that some of the democratic strongholds are still going to take a while to count. the cumberland, where sara

beasley is also from. i have long since said that north carolina is a winnable race. very busy one statewide as you said, and when she was four supreme court race. north carolina judges are elected, i'm also hearing that it look like ted budd is running a little bit behind where the judges candidate republicans are running and i found that interesting dynamic chairman i was talking about a little bit about -- >> let's talk about where we are right now, so we are at the points of the night we have some data. very very partial picture, but some data, and can sort of incorporate that into the expectations. you are the rnc during the 2010 -- so that's a historical drumming. 63 seats game by republicans in the house, seven senate states rights? >> yeah something in that ballpark. >> six, seven, 800 legislative's -- >> so that was like the tail end, right? that's the total and complete whooping. and tonight as we went in tonight, i was expected for everything from that like blood

on the whole, total mad slaughter, to democrats doing surprisingly well. where -- where are we in that spectrum from where you sit, from what we have so far, which is early? >> there is largely spot on the wall from florida, mostly, but as you look as around the country you see there's not a whole lot of hemorrhaging by democrats here. they have their base vote particularly their younger voters have shown up, i've gotten a lot of background information on how the young vote has turned out, and it has made a difference in a number of races. so that sense that there is going to be a huge wave, now again we still have the west, they're gonna come in -- >> and regional variation. >> we shall variations and all that! the medics dynamics to me that this is more of a scrimmage then we'll have some blood on the floor maybe a little bit on the wall, but the dems are gonna walk on the other side

and i think the senate is still going to be a play -- i still see that landing more in their column did not. so you are looking at a house, again cleared and high this discussion last night, she is in the 25 to 35 range, i'm in the 18 to 25 range on the house. we'll see how, but this is no near away 2020 that like books or talk about. >> yeah, you can't say anything other than where are we and that tail distribution? i think we look at that jennifer watson call race which is a biden plus and tennessee -- and will waive elections, there's always that seat or that ways where you are like oh my gosh i can't believe that person lost. we haven't -- aside from miami dave going republican -- >> which is special -- >> which is special, have you seen anything like that that's brought you up short yet? >> no. the one thing that we don't probably talk about enough is we get fixated on control of congress, governors matter! and we've had horrible cycles, winning, governors, seats.

we are enough flip, four or five governors seats from republican to democrat tonight. and he, we are gonna hold on it like a place like michigan, we are gonna win in pennsylvania -- >> what we'll see, we'll say -- >> i'm just telling you, i believe that we will hold on to michigan and i think we are gonna win pennsylvania. we competed in oklahoma, i think the democratic in kansas is going to hold on. you know what i noticed in the exit polls? you know how many hundreds and millions of dollars has been spent on crime in terms of advertising the cycle? >> it was not top three -- >> it was 11%, it was the most important. way lower than abortion! way lower than abortion! >> that jumped out at me as well. >> like it's not going to work just to pretend we have the worst crime in the world with a video feedings selectively into pieces house peoples household. the economy get continues to be better, that seems to be outweighing abortion, what are

republicans going to do about these extreme laws and the effort that is happening and congress to make abortion illegal all over the country? >> i think you need to bold and underline with the senator just said here. young people are turning out all over this country in places like wisconsin, they are the college campuses were both early both locations and now polling places. people are still in line with the coach just close and wisconsin 9 pm eastern time, 8 pm central, and they were telling people to stay in line because they were concerned that the status would get out thinking they could vote. this issue of abortion, women's rights to make this isn't about our own body is an animating issue and i think the young people were just tuned in. so all the people that said all these things about young people across america, they didn't care, they weren't done about, young people are showing up in key places! i think is going to be a story we talk about going forward. >> disappointed crystal clear, real quick, i will give a shout out to westmore, first elected african american only the third for governor in the united states history, 20 years ago tonight i won from lieutenant governor, breaking that barrier as a first-time african

american -- >> and he's a rock star! >> one of two state ownership including massachusetts that have flipped corridor call -- so crime casco, michael steele, thank you all for your insights, rachel, back to you! >> i want to make clear that despite mr. steele's comments there, nbc news has not made a projection in the maryland governor's race. >> -- oh! >> i'm sorry -- i'm sorry! >> too early to call! >> i was just reporting with a local papers are reporting. >> i hear you! my responsibility to keep us tethered to the elections as! too early to call with westmore leading, it's artificial protection. but i do have two official cause that i can tell you on to other governors races: nbc news cannot protect at this hour in the governor's race in the great state of colorado, democratic incumbent governor that jared polis has been reelected. his republican challenger was not able to go the distance and the arkansas governor's race there huckabee sanders will be the next governor of the state of arkansas following the footsteps of her father, mike huckabee, we will take a quick

break right now, much more when we come back. we've got all more key senate races that we are still watching and as our political insiders were just alluding to, in terms of what's happening in the house, the republicans knew they would have a good night tonight. it looks like it may not be quite the huge night that they were expecting! we'll try to put some data on that impression when we get back. stay with us! ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ you're less intimidating. you don't find me intimidating? no. it's a height thing. hi. -hi. we're from the new york times, i believe you use to worked for harvey wienstein. we have decades of accusations of assault. are you sure this isn't just women who want to sleep with a movie producer to get ahead. wienstein's on his way here. let him in... this is all gonna come out. with my hectic life you'd think retirement would be the last thing on my mind. thankfully, voya provides comprehensive solutions and shows me how to get the most out of my workplace benefits. voya helps me feel like i've got it all under control.

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>> michael steele, avatar of the future! we've got a maryland senate race to call, nbc news projects that the winner and the maryland senate race is incumbent democrat chris van hollen, defeating his republican challenger chris chafee. and at this hour, in the senate, that means we are looking at 39 senate states under democratic party control, and 40 senate seats under republican party control. 20 16 yet to be decided. and in the four mentioned, maryland governor's race, here it is: nbc news projects that the winner of the maryland governor's race is westmore, so democrats picking up that governor seat in maryland and holding on to that senate seats in maryland. in terms of what's going on in the house, everybody talks about the size of the wave, right? the size of the snap back

against the presidents party in a midterm election. it is a political science rule which is almost never violated that the presidents party loses seats in the first midterm election after a president has gained the white house. for example: there been two times in the last center where that will have not held. what was in 2002, right after 9/11, and one was in 1934. the presidents party, whatever party holds the white house, the first midterm after that president is elected, they always lose seats. now the republicans only need to pick up five seats in order to win the majority in the house of representatives this year. historically, just looking at the numbers, they are likely to do that. now what looks like a normal mid term pick up number for the party that is out of power, well in the last midterm in 2018, the republican party lost 40 seats in the republican before that, in amateur before that in 2014, the democrats were in power in the white house, they lost 13 seats. in 2010, the bottom before,

that democrats lost 63 seats. in 2006, republicans had the white house, they lost 30 seats. so again, 40 seat, 13 states, 63 states, 30 seats, that's what we have seen in previous midterms. the republicans only need five states tonight! in order to take control of the house -- but how are they doing? heading into tonight's midterm elections, you heard very bombastic predictions from a lot of republican pundit and even polling firms saying that republicans are gonna have like a 2010 style 63 seats win. we don't know what is going to look like at the end of the night, but steve kornacki has been tracking how big the swing might be in the house if in fact swings at all. steve? >> yeah, so here's a way of taking a look at the house here: we are looking at the seventh district of michigan, right now, not actually focusing in the seventh district, it happens to be on the screen as you come -- but when you focus on your

attention on the right side of the screen, what we have done is organized the competitive or potentially competitive house races with a series of categories here. again, keeping in mind the idea here, as you said republicans need a net gain of five states just to get control of the house. now we talk in the early hours tonight about how the florida math could have been aggressively redrawn to give republicans some additional seats and they succeeded. florida for, florida 13, and 4 to 7, these all count as flips, these all count as republican gains, these are all the result of a redrawn map in florida. if you look at this lies, these are all districts currently held by democrats that were won by trump, so this is sort of these first line of attack for republicans. trump already won them, tender candidates went? a couple of others here, as i say, tennessee five, redrawn aggressively to the republicans benefits in georgia, six. there's sort of five on this list here that we were redrawn and that kind of a way to

really risk benefit republicans. that, if they can won all five of those, is a gain of five. let's look beyond those districts though, we are also siding to get some results from elsewhere as well. for instance, the nine district of ohio we are taking up to half the vote in, we are gonna get same-day votes, and again this is marseille capture, longtime democrat incumbent, redrawn into this trump district, get this very controversial republican opponent who's had a scandal kind of lock his campaign. and capture has a real chance to hold on here, take a look at pennsylvania's a district. we are dealing with a lot of mail about so this is gonna change what this is matt cart right, this is a district won in 2020, cartwright survived, scranton joe biden's native area, pennsylvania eight, so democrats trying to hold on in a place like this. the third district of iowa got about a third of the vote in this is democratic friendly boat that's and, for cindy ochsner trying to hold on their, for democrats, one trying to say here is that outside of the

outside draw on a pick up opportunity for republicans which we have seen them cash in on three, and we've seen them in position of doing the same potential into more. you are not seeing automatically clear republican pass to pick ups in these at this is that i'm showing you. this is the first line of attack as i say for republicans to try to get that majority. now let's take a look here: i went too -- far let's look at the next line, get me that second, one thank you very much! now we are talking about vulnerable democratic state, but none of these are index that were carried by donald trump. these are districts that are a little bit more competitive, politically, all democratically held, republicans are hoping that these are the kinds of states and the way that would go. seats like north carolina at one, we've got about 85% of the voting right now, the democrats are leading in north carolina one, new hampshire one, we don't have much boat in but everything i have been showing you about that senate race in new hampshire, where maggie hassan is hitting all the benchmarks you know that she would need to hit, so far at

least, pop is, the democrats, hitting those same benchmarks and that part of the state as well. that's an encouraging sign for democrats. indiana's first district we said this was up with a start of the night here. frank more of a, and democratic incumbent, take a look here we see in leading but what's most important and interesting is that the area of the district that has the least amount of vote count is lake county, so where gary is, the biggest parts in the most democratic part of the district. so that's an encouraging sign for democrats as well. take a look here -- illinois six, the votes are starting to come in again, democratic friendly vote so far, but again the point that i'm making here is: this next line, these are districts that biden carried to some degree here, but all of these districts look like right targets for republicans, and you're not immediately looking at the results in any of these and saying, there is a republican pick up that we are gonna call, isn't that were part of a pick up that we are going to call. it's true and it extends -- this thing is not cooperating

as much. -- as it extends to this, now this is the same set of districts here that we are talking, about when talking about for a democratic held seat here. take a look at a virginia seven, we told you the story a minute ago, we are still waiting on the absentee votes from two heavily democratic areas in this district facility opportunity for spanberger, who's chilling by 5400 votes, to catch ghastly beget and say the seaport democrats. take a look at pennsylvania seven, susan wild again it's early, heavily male, that's what we need to hold on to. the democrats are very excited about now where an island to. heavily by the district, but adam fong, republican candidates here got a lot of national attention, this was seen as a pure toss-up race, heading into the, day and we have seeing up 90% of the vote and what we have seen happening here is ma mail votes coming, and both by mail and pushing set magazine or into the lead in this district. again, as we said, again high oh 13, dealing with a district

that tim ryan left to run for the united states senate. so it's in his neck of the woods, again we are dealing with early mail votes here, but this is for democrats -- is this high enough for democrats to withstand the same day and win? certainly possible right now, we are not looking at this district and saying, oh yeah i can see republicans are definitely on the way for winning their. henry cuellar, in the 20th district, probably the most concerned addition so a primary in the house challenge from the, left my deep south texas that we saw go turn heavily towards the republicans in 2020. now some of cuellar's best areas in the district are reporting so far, but without the vote, he is sitting there 60% right there. again, what i'm showing you is outside of those sort of give me seats and florida and crush one in ten and one in georgia, i'm not showing you and republicans are clearly poised to get flaps, not to say that they are not gonna get some flips in those seats that i just showed you.

but meanwhile, and a bit difficult to new states but i wanted to show you is -- democrats themselves have some seats that -- here we, go democrats themselves have some seats that they could flip. that is this page right here: take a look at michigan three. this is where the republican primary peter meijer, republican incumbent, was beaten by john gibbs. my are the pro impeach republican, running in the district, this is grand rapids area -- running and to show that biden won by eight points. that is just 6% of the vote right here, this is republican friendly vote that we are looking right now. this is a clear pick up opportunity for democrats. ohio one -- 60 before you go ohio, one basic opinion that will come back we are back to you. with a quick pull that we need to, make an important senate race. >> the colorado senate race, nbc news can now project that incumbent democratic senator michael bennet has been reelected in the colorado senate race. this was a highly tightly watched race because republicans are very confident

in their candidate, joe day, josé comes up short, michael bennett will be returning to the senate. back to you steve! >> yeah, so by the, way that colorado call, it has implications for the senate as you say -- there's also a competitive house race in colorado to, and if michael ben is doing well, that might pull ten wall for the democrats in that state. again, we have established that republicans need a net gain of five. we saw them draw themselves about a half a dozen pickups, we've already gone through so what democrats need to do is a two skins that i showed you before is that they need to protect the vast majority of states that i just took you through and they need to play offense. this is where the democrats need to play offense if they are going to have a chance -- and we are talking about this for wilbur now! if they are going to have a chance to hold the house. so we just showed you that michigan three on this list looms as a very clear opportunity for them. so right, now we are seeing on our screen, the first district in ohio, this is down to 69 area.

redistricting, steve chabot, of all the republicans in ohio got the worst deal from redistricting. it's been a heavily based district -- about half the voters, and he is trailing right now. let's see what happens in that remaining, have it democrats can hang on, that would be a pick up for them. take a look as well as north carolina 13: now with 70% of the votes in here, same day to come, it is getting close! boeheim's, republican is running eight points behind -- numbers are becoming, down hines has been coming, up this is an opportunity for democrats this is one that they will badly need. again if they'll have to -- illinois 13 was another one. redistricting in illinois was done by democrats in an aggressive way to maximize their number of seats. so illinois 13, previously a republican seat held by rodney davis, redrawn democrats and biden carried by 11 points under the new lines. it's early but it's a clear pick up opportunity for democrats tonight.

so the big picture on the house -- i'll get out of this way, now back house picture is came into the night knowing that republicans have drawn themselves a handful of a pretty obvious pick ups. no reason to think that they're they're not gonna get those hiccups. but so far at 9:39 pm, i'm not seeing in any of those vulnerable democrats, outside of the second district of virginia, that's where it lorraine gloria, continues to run behind, it's tough to find many when you look at it right now and you say -- okay that democrat is going down, that democrat is going down, they seem to be in the game in these vulnerable states where we are getting votes right now! they seem to be also very much in the game in a number of these seats where they would be getting gains of their own! and that, again, if they're gonna have any chance of holding the house, that's told me was what they need to do. they need to whether those losses they've already taken and they're likely to take in a few other places, and only to counterpunch with some games. and it shows you there, there's

some opportunities! there's some clear opportunities for that! >> i want to get your guys response for the -- rest of a quick call before we do that: right now nbc news at this hour is able to project in the oklahoma governor's race, the republican incumbent cabinet state will be reelected, this is not a foregone conclusion even though oklahoma such a reliably red state. do i hofmeister run an amazing campaign against kevin stitt, he ran through a lot of bumps in the road, but nbc news now returns at incumbent governor of oklahoma. back to what he was saying, again it's early days and will be up on any of us who projected at the end of the night or the end of the month as you see but already. [laughs] >> it does seem like republicans are having or not having the fireworks they expected to be having already by this time of the night, right? >> the word wave has no application yet to what we are seeing. >> it might still but it doesn't -- >> it might not, ever, this might feel like more the edge of a lake, just moving up and get you here and there. we were 22 was on steve's board

of republican states that could go democrats. that was identified for me today by new york political operative news, what about that one, it looks like the democrats they believed in the early afternoon it was like democrats might actually pick up that one. and they were looking at it just to see if there would be a red wave. they just wanted to see if democrats are going to lose by a lot? but the middle of the afternoon, they were starting to think wait the democrats might actually win. and so that is the math that steve is talking about where even though you see a few house seats going from the democrats of the republicans in florida, already -- it's the one that the democrats might take away from the republicans that will decide. this >> also, i was having conversations with people on the ground in ohio earlier today, and the two races that they've mentioned were amelia sykes and greg landsman, the shabbat seats, that you just saw steve talking about earlier. they were assuring me that these are states that are definitely bonner ball. >> republican incumbent in trouble then.

>> two republican incumbents, they're so democrats are very confident, they're getting a lot of votes out of hamilton county. normally when i think about ohio, i think what about their in how democrats could do, well i just tokyo the yoga! suddenly, hamilton county, they are seeing actually even smaller races that they are picking up local races, you know? not just races that would be on our radar. they are looking very strong in picking up judicial races, so that's really local. they are working very hard and that county. so if tim ryan has a shot in ohio, it's going to interestingly enough because he overperformed including in very, very black and including black areas and hamilton, since early today to be cuyahoga county, and also one thing -- we talked earlier about just florida's subtly generous. and think people have a tendency early, it means something for the national, the political scene. it means nothing! it's a planet of its own -- it is special! [laughs] >> one of the things that i think about the reelected

governor that florida did, he put a lot of awaits in countering trump. part of their little war was who they endorsed. he endorsed oh day, so the idea -- >> against michael bennet. >> against michael bennett! trump attacked him and went crazy, and went about all day. if desantis could pick up a pretty easy win in florida, but he doesn't have like endorsement power like trump,. -- >> that's a very good. point >> it'll be hard for republicans to say that we can replace trump with desantis, group decided to do a lot in florida ripping the mask off and getting reelected -- >> and we just picking the states where republicans can win right -- >> yes but kenny project that kind of political power that trump projects, they are still addicted to the trump truck. >> this is a lot more out of, this i do need to interrupt and changing categorizations. this is not a call of a, race but a change in the north carolina senate race, this is previously characterized by nbc news as too early to call between democrats cheri beasley and republican ted budd. it's no longer too early to call, it's now too close to

call, which itself is interesting. congressman ted budd is a trump and dorsey, he was one of the objectors on january six, these are very far down the number line on that side shared the slave democrats and it is a race is a former chief justice of the north carolina state supreme court and a very impressive campaign in their own way. it's not considered to be too close to call rather than too early to call in north carolina. yet another sign that this night while it has a lot of, things it is not a slam dunk for anyone on either side of the aisle. we're gonna take a quick break, we'll be right back! 'll be right back! this is the sound of better breathing. fasenra is an add-on treatment for asthma driven by eosinophils. it helps prevent asthma attacks, improve breathing, and lower use of oral steroids. fasenra is not a rescue medication or for other eosinophilic conditions.

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minutes. our friend jacob soboroff is live for us right now and henderson, nevada with only about ten minutes on the clock, jacob it looks like there's still a ton of people there? >> yeah, maybe as many rachel as three or 400. i was just talking to the election officials weigh the front of the line. when i talk to last a few hours ago, there was just one line and, it ended near the christmas tree. now kind of doubles back, it's almost like an amusement park. let me show you what's going on here. the line actually still snakes, hold on one second, let me run in check, all the way outside. so there are people outside right now rachel they're waiting in the slide. i think what's important to

note for people who are watching this right now, people who might still be in this line. if you are in this line within the next ten minutes you are going to get to vote even if you are outside. the small actually closes a ten eastern, 7 pm local time, but they want everyone to vote. when i talk to you last, i think the total was just over 2000. the tally is as of right now almost 2500 people that i voted it dislocation. i've been moderating what john rawlston and the nevada press corbyn saying here, that overall it seems to him to be lower than he expected it to be. that hasn't been the case here, that is also not been at the case at the boulevard mall, another mall not too far from here, or my understanding is the lines are better in our long. just watching these guys. you guys. you're at the very back of the line. you got the chips they've been passing it. rachel libby passing a cheetos are waiting in line. >> yes we're gonna wait. we care about things that we care about, women's rights,

everybody's rights. so. yeah >> that's what's motivating it. as rachel said nice to meet you guys. thank you very much for talking to us. that's all right give me a tap. the machinery of democracies work in, the gears are turning and hundreds of people to go here have -- at this mall in henderson, nevada. >> jake up, is everyone getting cheetos or two people have a choice of snacks or these self catering or their cheetos distribution network? asking for a friend. >> i did just go grab a slice of -- between talking to you. they're not passing its tomorrow, but they are passing out lots of different snacks. and i have to say, she headed to the election protection workers who are actually the ones we're doing that. their election workers, republican and democrat, they're making sure the things go smoothly and one of the things that they make sure the people are well nursed, maybe not well nervous, but nourished while. airlines >> deliberately something a crunch. jacob, thank you very, very much. jacob soboroff is in henderson,

about him in a place and about as a place where the polls are closing in about eight minutes. at 10 pm eastern with poor results in nevada, and utah, where there's an interesting senate race evan mcmullin an independent challenger. we also have polls closing in montana, montana's one of the places it's got a variety of abortion mandates on the ballot. we have lots of interesting poll closings just within the next few minutes. steve, if you don't mind -- excuse me, forgive me i'm interrupting myself. there is a projection to make. and we see projects at this hour the republican incumbent governor of south dakota kristi noem has been reelected in that state. forgive me, cristiano will be returning to the governor's mansion in south dakota. steven wanted to ask you about a race characterization change that we just had. north carolina senate just move from too early to call between cheri beasley and to tim bud

between being too close to call. can you give us any insight away that was changed? >> let's look at the lay of the land in north carolina. you see ted budd is leading in the statewide county, margin about 100 1200 13,000 votes right there. there are some areas here, i think we showed this one earlier, a place like union county. this is a big right outside of charlotte, core republican area where ted budd is running a couple of points better than donald trump. there's some good news for republicans on this map, but cheri beasley is countering that and some important places. she also has the potential weapon here in where the vote is still to come in. let me show you what i mean by that. take a look here. this is where asheville is, western north carolina. this is a core democratic county. but take a look. we basically got all the vote in from here, beasley 61, but 36. compared to the 2020 presidential result, this is a big size county western north

carolina, and easily has improved by a point a have basically, look better not than joe biden showing. joe biden lost the state to donald trump by 1.3 points. so the benchmark for beasley, every county we go to, take the biden number and exceeded by a point, if she's exceeding give or take, if he's exceeding by a point a county she's getting the job done. so you see a place like asheville, western north carolina. right now that's what she wants to see out of there. take a look, try to get this front to move south, go to henderson county. republican county here, these these numbers actually a little bit underneath bidens, but buds number is underneath trump's number as well, so buds not getting quite what he was expecting out of here. now here's a core democratic county, orange county. this is where chapel hill is. democrats are gonna get a big number, but beasley is getting two points better than joe biden got out of orange county. take a look down in chatham

county, basically all in. cheri beasley is getting about two and a half points better, 2.3 points better than joe biden got. she's running better than the biden number in a number of places across the state right now, and what's still to come is a ton of votes in wade county, this is where raleigh is, a ton of votes in macklemore county, this is where charlotte is. i feel like we've been stuck somewhere in this 50s, since we started giving the medical bergh tally, mecklenburg. against can basically stay ahead of that by number in mecklenburg. she's a few points ahead of it and wake. there are opportunities here for cherry beasley if she could land in a place like wake county to three points above biden, couple that with really high turnout, there's an opportunity for her to potentially catch bud and that statewide tally. so it's not impossible, and i think it's come more into focus, you see that much more remaining votes in those core

democratic areas. moves that too close to call category. take a look at georgia. we have three quarters the vote in georgia. look at this in the senate. 1400 votes separating walker and warnock. and that scenario we are talking about really does start to come into focus. the libertarian candidate, chase oliver is sitting there 2%. both walker and warnock are under 50% right now. compare that to the governor's race where the governor's race brian campus, open up a pretty comfortable advantage over stacey abrams. the story we are telling is this just become clear. we have all the vote in in cherokee county. brian kemp has won it by basically 50 points. brian kemp, again we said that trump wasn't getting out of cherokee what republicans used to get. kemp starts to bring them back to that level. what's walker doing in the senate race? he's not doing what kemp is doing. he's running under the trump level. we're seeing that in some of

these counties in that next tier right so outside of atlanta metro level. if you look at georgia, if you're a republican, you feeling good about brian kemp, but the walker situation is he's, underperforming kept significantly and potentially in a very costly way. >> bottom line, with a third party candidate looking close to 2% with the statewide number, that could potentially be runoff territory neither candidate does not get the 50%. i do a couple of a least one call to make. in the louisiana use u.s. senate race, and pc news can now protect that incumbent jon kennedy is now being reelected. his democratic opponent was gary chambers, but jon kennedy will be returning to the u.s. senate. at this point democrats control 40 seats, the republicans control 41 seats. who still 19 seats to go. with two money changes in minor characterization. and the new york governor's race, this race is still considered too close to call too early to call, but now and

an nbc now describes this as which kathy hochul is now in the lead. but kathy hochul in the lead too early to call. similarly in the main governors race. the democratic incumbent is janet mills, it is too early to call between her and republican challenger, the former governor of maine paula page. it is too early to call, but nbc news's election that's now characterized incumbent janet mills as being in the league. and the new york governor's race and then made governor's race we have democratic incumbents they're both in the lead although they are both too early to call. it's fascinating although i think the thing that is the clearest, i'm gonna do one more, i wanna repeat chris hayes's line, there is a tax on republicans who were picked by trump. they can say whatever they want to book trump, but he really isn't good at picking candidates. >> here's the other thing. the media fell into this trap

it was that democrats can't win with inflation where it is. that was wrong. voters seem to have made complicated and in some instances picking a republican -- inflation wasn't the political cudgel that republicans made it to be. it's painful in peoples lives, economic exiled is real, but republicans rang on weaponizing against democrats, and i think voters are stupid. they didn't run on solving, that they were on liz truss's policies, which ended her job. that there is saying three weeks more in the cavalry is coming since even more. i think the fact that they ran a crime in the red on inflation, and they didn't have any solutions, of some of them are paying for that. >> 10:00 in about 15 seconds here in the east coast. the post polls closing at 10:00, or montana, utah and nevada. we're like watching all the close senate races in the country, but polls closing in those three states, this is what we can tell you in terms of the and bc news projections. iv