so if you have not already, when you get up to if he had that lunar eclipse, when i grab a cup of coffee, and get yourself to the polls, and vote. and on that important voting note, i wish you all a very good night. from all of our colleagues across the networks of him he's the news, thank you for staying up late, and we should enjoy msnbc for live coverage and analysis, and the midterm elections, as we break down the results, as the votes are coming in and counted, special election coverage starts right here at 6 pm. i will see hassan for that coverage, and without a doubt, right here at the end of tomorrow until 2 am. stick around.

and their brand spanking elections today. all about my colleagues, nicole wallace, joe read, chris hayes, when so not. on tomorrow is the final day that we can all vote in this is big midterm election. of course, many, many, many, americans already cast their votes on this election day even. we can now report that over 42 million americans have already cast a ballot. that is significantly more early votes that were cast in the last midterm election in 2018. and that, overall, had record turnout. americans are turning out in record numbers. now, for folks who are pulling it off to the variant, and have not yet voted, candidates antichoice across the country, tonight, they're making a frantic final push to try to get voters after the polls. at this hour, president biden has just wrapped up a rally in maryland, in westmore, the democratic candidate for

governor and four other maryland democrats. on the republican side, former president donald trump is about to take the stage in ohio, where the tight race for an open senate seat there may decide who controls the senate overall. trump has previously insulted and tried to humiliate the republican contender for that senate race in ohio, jd vance, but tonight, he is in ohio with tents to support his campaign. today's new nbc news poll, the last one before the election, finds that likely voters are almost exactly evenly split on which party they want to control congress. 48% say they vote for democratic control. 47% say they prefer republican control. that is a tie. but that same poll also had some unexpected and heartening news for democrats. since last month, democratic enthusiasm levels have gone up, why republicans have decreased. just a month ago, republican voters held a nine-point edge on enthusiasm about the election. now, as of today, democrats have caught up, and it is actually even between the two

parties. that enthusiasm measure is considered an important factor, in terms of who will turn out at the polls tomorrow. but if you have to pick just one thing to learn, one thing to be cognizant of this election eve it's this. democrats and republicans are voting differently, meaning they are voting by different methods. nbc's new poll today shows that voters who want democrats to control congress voted early by a 2 to 1 margin. voters who want republicans to control congress are not doing that, by a 2 to 1 margin, pro republican voters plan to vote tomorrow on election day itself. bottom line, the vote for people who would vote on election day tomorrow will lean republican. the early vote will lean democrat. and that is at the one thing to keep in mind as we all head into the incredible circus and joy that's election results tomorrow. that is why republicans all over the country have been laying the groundwork for early votes and absentee votes, and mail-in votes to be seen a suspect, or somehow less legitimate. already, republicans have filed lawsuits that have gotten

certain early vote ballots tossed out in states like pennsylvania and wisconsin. republicans, from former president trump on down, have been telling their supporters that they ought to be suspicious of any vote counts that take a long time. trump lawyer, rudy giuliani today, saying that only the ballots that are tallied in the first few hours should count. and any ballots counted later than that should be seen as a suspect. the reason they are doing this is because in many states, the same day election day votes, the ones that are disproportionately republican, those votes are counted first, only after that do they start tallying up the early votes which lean democratic. so, tomorrow, we should all expect that in many states, the first tallies would look relatively good for republicans, and then, republican leans will begin to shrink as the night goes on, and as the vote counting stretches into the late evening overnight into wednesday, and even longer. we know now, to expect how protests from republicans who will insist that somehow

suspected, it is voter fraud and election rigging going on. they will demand the vote counting stop, they will file even more losses on the top of dozens they already have to try to disqualify early voter democratic votes. but knowing it's coming doesn't stop it from happening. it does help us know what it means when it does come. but setting those expectations is probably the best thing that we can all do for ourselves, for our family members, for our friends, in terms of being real, being patient, and not jumping to conclusions about tomorrow night results. joining us now for the first time is the great steve kornacki at the big board. steve, tell us what's important from this big final nbc news this out today? >> yes, sort of conflicting signals i think you can say. you had the headline there. that was the likely voter model results, so registered voters,

basically saying here though the generic ballot, asking folks which part you want to have control of congress, registered voters that even, 47, 47. if you are a democrat, you spent the year here in about, impending red wave, obviously, this is welcome news for you. in the final nbc news poll before the election. underneath these numbers, though, there are some pretty strong headwinds that are working against democrats here. it's an interesting test between this number and what's underneath the number. and it starts with this. it starts with the presidents job approval rating. we have seen, it's not common, but we've seen in history some parties defy the trend where the white house's party suffers losses, generally big losses in midterm election's. they don't tend to do it when the president's approval rating

is where joe biden is right now. 44% in our final poll, a majority disapproving, we've seen biden's number hovering in this area for a long time in our polling. to put this in some context, final nbc news poll, for recent presidents before their first midterm, you can see it right here, biden's number is right in that range, look, trump was 46 in 2018. obama was 45 in 2010. you know, in 2018, republicans lost the house 40 seats in 2010, democrats lost the house 63 seats. you see the outlier, this is the kind of approval rating george w. bush was in 2002, 63%, that's the kind of approval rating it typically takes for a white house party to defy history and have a good midterm in this case, the republicans picked up a handful of seats in 2002.

so just on the approval rating, which is historically driven midterm results in a lot of ways, biden is right and that danger zone, and democrats are right in that danger zone. you layer on top of that the feelings, the environment, the attitude, when it comes to the economy, our poll finding that more than eight in ten voters say they are dissatisfied with the current state of the economy. we haven't seen a number that high on this question since 2009, 2010, around the time of the crash, the great recession. that period of time. and then, when you ask people straight-up, with the most important issue, as you make up your mind, it is, economy and cost of living, inflation. those two combined for 37% here in terms of being the top

issue. and the folks who cite that at their, as their top issue are breaking in our poll four republicans by a 43 point margin. because the headwinds that democrats have against them here, sort of historically speaking, and in terms of the climate we are in right now, what are democrats counting on to try to counter all of that? well, you could see this issue of threats to democracy, which comes in as the second most important issue on peoples minds. democrats, on this issue, have an advantage of 68 points on the generic ballot. and then, there's also the issue of abortion, obviously brought to the four by supreme court decision, just under one in ten voters i think that is their most important issue. and again, it's a tremendous democratic advantage there, 45 points. so, there are some issues besides the economy and inflation where democrats have pronounced advantages. and then, as you said in the beginning, there is simply that shift, there are poll findings, we'll see what tomorrow brings, but our poll says that our

enthusiasm, there's been a change in the last several weeks where democrats have withdrawn. and even i think that the ultimate wild in this election tomorrow. we are looking at probable turnout when all is said and done of somewhere in the neighborhood of 120 230 million voters, for a midterm election. just eight years ago in the 2014 midterm, 85 million people voted in it. that's how much interest in politics has risen over the last decade, to be a level that high, it would have been unthinkable before. and, so it shows this is the ultimate variable. are we at a point in this midterm elections where democrats may get voters motivated who in the past would not have been? maybe they're not wild about biden, maybe they're not wild about the economy, but maybe, there is a -- idea there are voting against republicans, voting against donald trump, maybe that kind of thing, or environment now, where it can drive turnout in a way that it -- -- >> i remember 2014 very well,

because you know, i started the show in 2013. and it was the first election i covered at all in. and there was not a lot of interest. believe me. like, people did not tune in -- >> your way to reach out in the country to -- >> yeah, and you can feel it, right it was hard to get people motivated. it was the store the final act of the obama presidency. so i think people were sort of a little bit checked out. they kind of recovered from the great recession. double trump did not come on the scene yet. so, just looking at that 14 million vote difference, right? between 85 and 125. the only thing i will say is this. i do worry about expectations for tomorrow on the right, for this reason. conservative media has told its base there is no question what is happening tomorrow, it is a red wave. it is going to be a landslide. and it may be. it may be one of those elections where you see some random democratic governor go down, where no one thought was gonna go down, right? early in the night, some

congress, member of congress, who no one thought had a contested race, loses to an unknown. >> it ends up being 60 states. >> exactly, that's when you know you are in that kind of like a huge landslide. it may be that. i don't know. the polling data is not that clear. it could also be a pulling us in the other direction such as democrats have a fairly decent night. and i do worry the expectation has been so set in republican conservative spines, this is going to be an enormous red wave landslide, that should that not come, we know what the answer will be provided to them about why, not a pulling this, like democrats had to deal with 2016, or in 2020, where they lost a lot of seats they should have. not all the polling was wrong, that measurement was wrong,

turnout was different than we thought. look, and the data, there was all these confounding signals that turned out democrats -- we know what the answer will be, and i'm very worried about that. >> and we've already got 40 plus percent of republican voters saying they don't trust this year's midterm election results, even before we've got them. >> and i think we have to think about, as media in general, not just conservative media, you know, i think in general, the media has created an expectation where republicans, i think it would be bad if they can just say fox news set it. but i think in general, the general zeitgeist of the media coverage is that the red wave is coming, because a lot of the polling averages are saying that for a lot of the polling average is filled with a lot of junk peoples. and so, i think one of the issue -- >> and there's just uncertainty.

>> and no one knows. and so, i think there's a risk. i think we, as the media, have to start to think about what are the incentives to presuppose anything? the only vote that really counts, the only poll that really counts is the vote, right? that's the one that is real. and i think what you said earlier is really important. the way that campaigns are thinking about this tonight is that democrats campaigns, at large, they're saying okay, you know we are racing about a 4 million vote lead in terms of what the electorate looks like that is voting early. the real data, not the polling, but the data. democrats, the way the electorate looks, it's about 53% women. that says to me that there's a huge amount of energy that is being driven by a thing that women care about, what is that thing? it's roe. i feel that we've been undercounting it, and under covering it since the summer. women just don't get over the idea that they no longer on their bodies. that's not something that they say, hey, you know, it was a little cheaper. i'll probably get over it. that isn't something that happens. so when i look at the electorate and the way that campaigns are looking at it, they're saying, can republicans catch up to that 4 million vote lead on election day? because that's when they are

voting. and it used to be, back in the day, when i used to be on the other side of the campaign with that pretty lady over there, is that we would say, okay, we've got an early vote in, because young voters, black voters in particular, college students, people have to work hourly jobs, that's your democratic electorate. they vote early. that's your early voter, so to the polls, right? and then on election day, it used to be awash. you know what the defense used to be? absentee, because in 2004, we really thought, okay, democrats are gonna do okay. and then the absentee from republicans wiped out the democrats. and in 2014 thing, too. now the trump has turned republicans against absentee, we know absentee is probably leaning d, and now, the only question is can they get it done that one day? >> that's exactly right. >> i think, too, there was something that both don't pick up when women are deleting their ovulation trackers. they're gonna be like, delete, delete. this is when i'm voting. you know, you're gonna blow -- but it's unknown unknown. >> so, just to be clear, you both think that the importance of abortion as a driver for democratic voters that abortion is being -- >> i don't know. >> it's not showing up in the polls, you think is stronger than it looks. >> i think it's a noble. because i think if you don't trust your apple watch to track your period, you're not responding how much you can't,

whether you care a lot or not at all. it doesn't answer the question. i don't know if you're taking those calls anymore, if you are that kind of voter. i also think that this idea that the dogs vote early, it's 50 years the president was overturned. you don't get over it, in like 12 weeks. i also think that the trap that the right set is that if you care about democracy, you are indifferent to economic angst. you are not. i have watched all these democratic candidates, they all understand, and i bet you they all know the price of milk, meat and bread, and all of their grocery stores in their districts or in their states. so, i think republicans said the strap, and i think that's another flaw on the media. the third thing is something change in the last seven days. i talk to candidates and pennsylvania, strategists in michigan, they all said that this weekend felt totally different than last weekend. >> why? >> i'm not sure. i mean, i'm not sure if it's that last jobs number. i think because on the sort of a political magic that will get out there, and he was like, this is how you do it. he tried to cover democracy, and economy, and he was

starting to sort of -- i mean, you look at the josh shapiro speech from saturday night. and this tells you too much about my saturday night. [laughs] >> i'm like, oh my god, who is that? shapiro is channeling obama, obama is channeling the majority of americans who don't want to think to choose between the price of milk and living in a democracy. you can have both. you know, i think if that sunk and, and saying there won't be a red wave. we won't know until tomorrow. >> that's right. >> i'm gonna take my place in the audience for the rest of this program. [laughs] -- i have no idea what's gonna come -- >> i would like to sit next to you, i have no idea either! >> and i'll just give one footnote about why i have no idea.

i have given up thinking about these kinds of elections, congressional elections, literally for decades, for the following reason. you got to be 40 years old in this country, when i was about 40 years old, without ever having seen that republicans control the house of representatives. [laughs] -- ever in my lifetime, okay? and then, in 1994, the republicans won the house, and they win the senate in what is bill clinton's first midterm election was. here's who predicted that. not a living soul. [laughs] -- no one predicted that the republicans are gonna win the house for the first time in 40 years, and no one predicted that the 57 democrats in the senate were the next day going to become the minority. no one predicted it. and i was working in the senate at that time. i had to move from a big office and the majority side, to a cubicle on the minority side of the building. and i knew then what william goldman and the great screenwriter headset about show business years before that, no one knows anything. and so, eight predictive, the predictive elements of tonight's discussion, i will listen to. i have nothing to contribute. >> i, mean what you are all

predicting is that what's important is what happens tomorrow, and the polls thus far have been interesting but nothing as joy put it, the only poll that matters is the vote. a man who knows that better than all of us put together, joins us now. he is mandela barnes, the lieutenant governor of the great state of wisconsin. is the democratic candidate challenging republican incumbent senator ron johnson in a race that is absolutely crucial for both sides. lieutenant governor barnes, real pleasure to have you with us tonight. thank you so much for making time. >> well, thank you so much for having me, really excited about this campaign, excited about the position we are in, and about the momentum we've been seeing. really glad to have a conversation with you all. >> well, tell us about that moment, and we've all been discussing here how much we feel like tomorrow is a black box, and that anything seems possible. nicole has been saying that she

feels like particularly in the last week, some of the polls indicate this, it does feel like there's some democratic momentum. and the democrats in places where they've been behind, feel like they're catching up. when you say that you've got momentum heading into tomorrow, what does that look like in practical terms from your campaign? >> well, i'll tell you, i'm actually in my rv right now, if this looks at it will be troubling from the middle of wisconsin. we just hit our hundred stop in 15 days. and i can tell you, the quotes that have been showing up are all across wisconsin, enthusiasm is very real. and the best thing about it is, these are folks that i haven't seen before ever. these are the same people i showed up four years ago. they aren't the people who are coming to campaign, throughout this campaign. that's the most exciting part about it. and the energy is, you know, it's felt from older generation, people are frustrated about the

fact that ron johnson wants to take away social security and medicare. it's young people are frustrated about the fact that they have a senator who call climate change bs, and also, women in general all across wisconsin were frustrated that one of their senators told them that they can, that they don't like the law it's, like our 1849 criminal abortion ban. but if you know, races in wisconsin are notoriously close. the last three november elections were decided with about 30,000 votes or fewer. we need all the help to get over the hump. if votes go to mandela barnes. com, and help us out in this last minute, everything goes a long way to help us beat ron johnson. >> lieutenant governor, chris hayes here. i've a very clear memory of about two or three in the morning the day after the election in 2020, when there was big votes, vote tallies happening in the state of wisconsin, particularly around milwaukee that showed joe biden pulling into a mathematically plausible situation that you might win your state, and that

might mean the election. what does your expectations, for yourself and setting, in terms of how long it's gonna take to cut these votes, because wisconsin, like pennsylvania, is a state where the republican legislator has not allowed state officials to count those early votes. so, how are you just thinking about the timeline of tomorrow night? >> well, i'll tell you, i'm prepared to talk to as many people as i can, personally, all the way until 8 pm tomorrow night when polls close. and we are ready to be awake as long as it takes until the last ballot discounted. you know, we were up, late at night four years ago in 2018. and we've been through this before. we are not afraid to go through it again. but the reality is, yes, people like ron johnson who won't even commit to accepting the election results, i am committed to accepting the election results because i value democracies, while ron johnson doesn't. with that being said, there are a lot of folks who haven't been putting in countless hours, whether it's the blues on the ground, or the people who, are

you know working the polls, making sure that democracy functions properly, keeping peoples ballots safe and secure, protecting the right to vote. >> we've got a democratic senate candidate, lieutenant governor mandela barnes, sir, we know this is the busiest of all nice for you. thank you for joining us tonight, good luck to you. >> of course, thank you so much for having me. >> by nbc's accounts, there are at least 276 republican candidates running for office tomorrow, including mandela barnes's opponent, ron johnson, who refused to accept the results of the last election at one level or -- with zegerid otc.

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♪ ♪ ♪ >> the majority of republican candidates on the ballot for house, senate, and statewide races tomorrow. the majority of them are election deniers. more than half of those election deniers are expected to win the races.

this is a really unprecedented phenomenon, and in covering this election, we are having to treat it as such. tomorrow night, for the first time ever, we, here at msnbc, are gonna have a team of 15 people, just following the election deniers, keeping track of who among them wins, who among them concedes when they lose, and who among them refuses to concede despite the results. one of the races we're gonna be watching closely is one in new hampshire, between democratic u.s. senator maggie hassan, and her republican challenger, retired general and election denier named don bolduc. last week, mr. bolduc got an endorsement from former president donald trump, and that endorsement, i kid you not, trump overtly described bolduc as, quote, a strong and proud election denier. he wants people to know he is an election denier, and he is proud of it. that's why you should support him. for whatever reason, mr. bolduc has decided not to mention that trump endorsement publicly, not even once since it happened. but the latest polling in this new hampshire race is close, it is within the margin of error close.

joining us now live is maggie hassan, democratic senator for new hampshire. senator hassan, it's nice to see you. we know you are very, very busy tonight. thank you for making a few minutes to be here with us. >> it's great to be with you. >> senator hassan, i wanted to ask you, as somebody who is an incumbent senator, as somebody who is very much a moderate and has that reputation, somebody who has a reputation both as a workhorse not a show horse, somebody who works at both sides of the aisle. i wanted to ask, given the challenge that you are facing from sort of the far-right with your competitor, has anything surprised you, in terms of what new hampshire residents want to talk to you about? what they are saying they care about? what they want to hear from you about? >> look, i am all over the state right now talking to grant status where they are. and what i'm hearing about is of course, inflation, and we are talking about the work i've

done across party lines to do things like ben surprise medical bills and lower peoples health care costs, or the chips and signs act which would bring supply chains back to the united states, and help lower inflation that way. people are very, very concerned about home heating costs here in new hampshire as we face wintertime. and we are talking about the steps we've taken to help with that, too. but i am whole so hearing about concerns, concerns about extremism. and my opponents extremism you just talked about it, don bolduc is an election denier, spent over years stoking the big lie about 2020 in our state. he is actively casting doubt on tomorrow's results in new hampshire, a state that has some of the best elections in the country. and has said that if in 2024, his preferred presidential candidate doesn't win, he, as a united states senator, if he were to be in the senate would vote to overturn that election. people are concerned about that, because of its extreme nature and how undemocratic, small

deed that is. but they are also really concerned about the combination of an election denier, like my opponent, with his extreme agenda that would raise their costs and illustrate their personal rights. so, you know, if you have an election denier or an office, what it ultimately means is that they can impose an extreme agenda. don would bolduc eliminate social security, and be a yes vote for a nationwide abortion ban, because they don't think they're accountable to you. >> senator, it's lawrence o'donnell. only go to that point you just mentioned about social security, what are new hampshire voters telling you about that? because an issue like social security has been part of these kinds of campaigns for decades now. you now have the highest cost of living in adjustment in social security in many years, in fact, in decades, because

inflation is so high. and the social security payments are paid to that inflation to keep pace with it. so many republicans have worked for many years to try to cut that cost of living, increase, and to cut social security itself. but it doesn't seem to penetrate in these campaigns. >> well, so, one of the real issues in my campaign is that my opponent keeps trying to conceal his position. so, he is on record, on video, saying he would eliminate social security. that position has been confirmed by independent fact-checker's. but he denies it, when asked about it, and he is being backed up by over $60 million in money from national republican super pacs, who are

their social security, they want us to protect medicare. you also would privatized medicare and make over a trillion dollars in cuts to it. but he's also trying to conceal that. and so, that's the real rub here, you know, in a recent debate, don bolduc said that he was sick of talking about election denial. he wasn't gonna answer any more questions about it. this is somebody who believes he can refuse to accept results of an election, so he really doesn't think he has to engage with state voters or be honest with them. and voters to care about this, i am hearing a lot about it. but they also care about other things like inflation, and like a woman's fundamental freedom. >> maggie hassan, democratic senator for new hampshire, for reelection against don bolduc, the republican candidate. senator hassan, we know this is a really busy night. thank you for making time tonight, and good luck to you. >> and thank you. and rachel, just one last thing i will say, we also are really encouraging people to still get engaged in the campaign at maggie hassan. com. >> well done. you'd be missed if we -- it is amazing to be talking to

senate candidates in wisconsin and new hampshire, we just spoke to those candidates, to know one of the things they have to be contending with is that there republican opponent, if the republican loses, will likely not acknowledge the results of the election. and that's one of the things that these campaigns have to contend with. we've all covered a lot of elections. we've never had to contend with this at a systemic level. all right, when we come back, we're gonna go to our panel of political insiders, on something that nicole and joy, both say maybe misstated by the polls right now. the importance of abortion rights on the ballot tomorrow, whether the polls accurately capture it, that's next. stay with us. ♪ ♪ ♪

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and vermont, abortion is literally on the ballot tomorrow. depending on what happens in races elsewhere, we could see entire regions of the country becoming deserts for reproductive freedom. this is a map of the midwest, illinois is the only state there where abortion is actively protected. michigan's 1931 triggered law that would ban all abortions has been blocked in courts. tomorrow, michigan voters will decide on an amendment that would enshrine abortion rights in the state's constitution. the states in the southeast are even higher. pretty much it all comes down to north carolina and whether the state legislature welcomes the republican super majority tomorrow.

if that happens, it could effectively cut off abortion access for an entire region of the united states. whether it's in a ballot measure or in the hands of state lawmakers, the matter of choice is being voted on across the united states tomorrow. is that reality enough to energize democratic voters to turn out? we will ask our insiders right here. joining me now are former white house press secretary free -- former democratic senator, and former chair michael and former chair michael steele. thank you, my team of insiders. jen and clare, let's start with you. in terms of that map, it is confusing, right? i think a lot of people don't fully understand the reality of the a on reproductive freedoms and what american women can be waking up to after november 8th. has the confusion around what is prohibited, what is allowed, what is on the ballot, do you think that has anyway confused interim voters and undermine the sense of urgency that might otherwise be felt among independents or moderate republicans on this issue? >> look, i think it could. we don't know yet. the fact is that this is motivating women across the

country, no question. a lot of people it is motivating our progressive white women. the people who will be most impacted our lower income communities and communities of color. i do think that when the dust clears, whatever happens in the election, this is going to be one of those issues that people are going to wake up wednesday, thursday, friday, whatever day we know more, and they may be confused about what the outcome is. they may not thought about that. they may not know what access they have because it does goes back to the states. >> this may be the first chapter. this is going to be an evolving situation. as more and more women confront the reality of the states. in my state, the government is going to force birth on a rape victim. end of story. now they're talking about ways to get at the abortion pill, which has become the method of choice now and a lot of that is going online. that would have to be done nationally. hopefully we have a good day

tomorrow and we slow this thing down but if we don't, the republicans will continue to go too far and this will continue to be a growing issue for our party on the positive side. >> as more women face this reality, as the laws take effect. >> your daughter, your neighbor, your aunt. >> do you think republicans are, part of metaphor, prepared to live in the house that they are effectively building at the stage? >> i don't think they understand the full extent of what you've just heard here. the impact that it can have, and we'll have, and is already happening in respect to some women across the country. a lot of the -- many are pro-life, in every sense of that word. they are appalled by what they're seeing happening in the states in which they live and watching which type of legislation are being imposed, and the impact is having on women who don't share their views. it is happening to women. i don't think they're fully prepared for what comes next. there is always that thing in politics, you can beat your chest about a lot of stuff until you actually have to act on it. they don't know what to do in the space because as we've already seen, we have gone from

oh, the locals, the states can decide to, the national bands. lindsey graham. the men don't know quite yet what to do for the women. >> the men don't know to begin with. we are going to leave it there for the moment. jen psaki, michael steele, thank you all for your wisdom and insights. rachel, back over to you. >> thank you alex. the great state of nevada is one of those states where the experts and much of the polling are basically saying that tomorrow is a tie, it looks like a tie in all the important races, there's no way to tell what is gonna happen. we are gonna go live to nevada for a closer look next, stay with us. with us. with us. with us. -- relief you need. mind if i root through your trash? robitussin. the only brand with real honeyand elderberry.

away things. fit together with away things. ♪ ♪

that's our thing. ♪ ♪ so the last midterm election

was 2018, that midterm set a record for voter turnout which is great. but as of today, the early vote this year has far surpassed what we had in 2018. the early vote then was 39 million votes. as of today, we are closer to 43 million votes. it is a record number of people who have already voted this year. given those huge early voting numbers, one candidate in one of the most closely watched senate races in the country sound of the long today that the first returns, the initial vote count that will first get reported tomorrow will likely have a partisan skew that won't reflect the final tally. democratic u.s. senate candidate john fetterman, today he sent out basically a warning flare about what to expect tomorrow, why should jump to conclusions when you see the first returns.

he said in part, quote, republicans are already laying the groundwork to potentially spread false conspiracy theories about ballot processing in pennsylvania. the reality is pennsylvania law means in person both the skew republican tend to disproportionately be counted and reported before democratic leading mail-in votes. ballots cast by mail and early in person votes cannot be counted until election day, thanks to the republican controlled legislature. which he calls, and intentional move to help republicans basically sow doubt about the election results when it suits them. he says quote, we should expect one of the most dramatic shifts in the country from initial republican support in earlier results to stronger democratic gains as more votes are processed. so, pennsylvania, we are likely to get results quite late. same goes for arizona, same goes for maybe new hampshire.

one other state will things look like they will be incredibly close and where we almost certainly will not know results tomorrow night's nevada. katherine cortez mastiff and a tough battle for reelection to his second term, as is democratic governor steve cisa. like joining us from the count -- by far the largest county in the state, it is our beloved jacob, msnbc correspondent. thanks for joining us. >> hi rachel, it's great to see you. you are 100 percent right, it is not going to be an early night here in nevada. i've been inside this building as a matter fact for the last couple of years, the man in charge of elections here in the largest election jurisdiction in the state. he was kind enough to invite us inside to show us all the machinery of democracy. they've been doing mail-in voting here, in person early

voting. and like you mentioned in pennsylvania, those votes are actually counted in advance, processed in advance of tomorrow. they won't be calculated until tomorrow. they are some of the votes that come out of this building tore night. he is the one who told me, i don't get authority, i'm not just making this up, it's not going to be an early night here in nevada tomorrow night. inside this building, the vote could go on, the count could go on for days and days. he explained to me why, take a look at what he had to say. >> if it's close, there's a chance we might not know the results until around ten days from election day. that is correct. >> we have statutory deadlines that we have to stand by. the counties on monday, i can't even read a precision about until i get a report, that could be tuesday afternoon or wednesday morning. >> you heard that right, ten

days from election day. but joe gloria insist, that is not because they are slow or bad at their job, that is what the law says here. he in fashion he says, that is not reason for people to doubt the vote. on the contrary, people should have great faith in the integrity of the vote. his opponent stayed outside this building after election day, he allege thousands of illegal votes were cast and counted inside that building. it turned out to be a totally bogus accusation, including the republican secretary of state saying this after an independent investigation. all of that will go on in this building, joe glory insists that the process they use, what might not be fast, it's best process for getting a fair and accurate count. so everyone's votes are counted. >> even what we saw there in 2020, given that scene that you just described. what happened in the parking lot, the kind of wild claims that were made by arizona, nevada conservatives and republicans, have they had to make contingency plans for that kind of pressure, that kind of criticism? potentially that kind of physical pressure on the

counting site? >> yeah, it was announced today that the department of justice are sending monitors all across the country to monitor potential civil rights violations when it comes to the vote. i asked glory about that as well, he said i just want everyone to be clear, is not because we have had violations but it is in order to watch and pretend those kinds of violations from happening. those are other jurisdictions were not welcoming to the federal department of justice. he says, i welcome them with open arms, there's a lot of security here. you can probably see the police lights flashing on my face. there was not that kind of presence here two years ago when we were there for the presidential election. they have brought up security here. >> jacob, correspondent, thank you so much for your time tonight.

it's gonna be fascinating to watch nevada tomorrow with all those races. all right, we have much more to talk about this election eve. including, what jacob just mentioned, there doj announcing today that they will be sending election monitors to 24 different states. we are seeing at least one republican-controlled states saying no, they reject the justice department monitors. -- -- cabenuva helps keep me undetectable. it's two injections, given by my healthcare provider, every other month. it's one less thing to think about while traveling. hiv pills aren't on my mind. a quick change in my plans is no big deal. don't receive cabenuva if you're allergic to its ingredients or taking certain medicines, which may interact with cabenuva. serious side effects include allergic reactions post-injection reactions, liver problems, and depression. if you have a rash and other allergic reaction symptoms, stop cabenuva and get medical help right away. tell your doctor if you have liver problems or mental health concerns, and if you are pregnant, breastfeeding, or considering pregnancy.

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election eve. coverage here on msnbc, this is like christmas, birthday, and all the obscure religious holidays rolled into one. i'm rachel maddow, joined in studio by my colleague chris hayes and joy reid, alex wagner. board getting all warmed up for the big day, which will likely last a month. some election years there are one or two senate races that are just incredibly tight, and some election years one really tight senate race can decide who

controls the whole u.s. senate. but this year there's a whole slew of incredibly tight, anything can happen senate races and any one could control who decides the senate. in pennsylvania democrat john fetterman versus republican mehmet oz, completely tied up. in georgia, republican herschel walker against warnock completely tied up. in nevada democratic senator cortez masto, completely tied up. in wisconsin republican senator ron johnson being challenged by contract mandela barnes. in new hampshire, democratic senator maggie hassan challenged by republican dan bolduc. tied up. each of them just incredibly, incredibly tight, many of them with final polls well inside the margin of error. the outcome could make the difference between a senate led by chuck schumer that, for instance, would continue to confirm president biden's judicial appointment and a republican-run senate in which anything president biden might

want would be guaranteed dead on arrival under mitch mcconnell. those are the no kidding, anything could happen stakes tonight for the country. joining us is the great steve kornacki at the big board. steve, where does the battle for the senate stand tonight? looking at the individual polls, it looks like it's a tie, we have to wait and see. can you see any more clarity? >> when you joke about it being a month, it actually might be a month. basically battle for the senate, 50/50 right now. in blue here you got the most vulnerable democratic-held seat, where republicans would play in offense trying to get that gain. in red up see the most vulnerable republican-held seats where democrats are trying to counter anything republicans are able to pick off. you reeled off a bunch from there. let's go through probably the four top targets for republicans in terms of getting pick ups, needing at least one here to get control of the senate.

let's go through those. what we've done here is there are all sorts of different poll numbers out and different averages. we put two different averages, the real clear politics average, the 538 average, to give you a sense. here in nevada, for instance, not much of a difference between these two poll averages. they each suggest slightly -- essentially close, almost even, tied, consistent with what we saw you at the top of the broadcast, a generic bout at

47-47. it's very possible a democratic seat or could be the seat the republicans are looking for. in georgia not only do you have polling averages pointing to a tight race but you have the added third candidate in georgia. if neither warnock or herschel walker, it will go to a runoff. this one a bit of a surprise and a bit kind of -- it's arrived late on the scene. it's an interesting story because national republicans tried like heck to find all sorts of candidates in new hampshire to run and they kept getting nos and ended up with don bolduc as their nominee and kind of wrote this race off yet the polling has been extremely close late here in new hampshire, too. sort of a late-arriving public pickup opportunity. the bottom line is between

nevada, arizona, georgia, new hampshire, republicans looking for at least one pick up. what that does for democrats, i think the bottom line is it really underscores the supreme importance of democrats of pennsylvania. when you look at the polling, pennsylvania is far and away the best pick up opportunity that democrats have. that's pat toomey, incumbent republican not running for reelection. .1, .3. this is where democrats would get a net gain. if democrats win pennsylvania, they're at 50 now for the minute. say that would put them at 51. say for the sake of argument let's say republicans pick off nevada, that would put it back to 50/50, democrats would still control the senate. it could offset a loss in a blue state. and i'm talking about the one-month scenario. let's say here that democrats

succeed in picking up pennsylvania. let's say that republicans succeed in picking up nevada, plus one for republicans there and let's say that nobody gets to 50% in georgia. then you'd be in a situation where republicans could come out of election night with 50, democrats could come out with 49 and there would be one undecided race and that would be georgia and we would then await the results of a georgia runoff where if warnock won the runoff, democrats would get back to 50-50, control the senate with kamala harris' tie breaker or it warnock run, republicans would have control. a georgia runoff would be december 6. if georgia is the deciding state, we would be waiting until december 6th at least because it could take a day or two to get the results of the runoff to

find out who controls the runoff. >> of course it has to be the 6th. like we're not having deja vu all over again. the last time we were waiting for a georgia runoff, what was that like for the country and then the 6th? steve kornacki, thank you. joining us is senator gary peters from the great state of michigan. senator peters' state is not in contention. he is the chair of the democratic senatorial campaign committee which is tasked with electing new democrats to the senate. thank you for joining us tonight. you're the busiest man on earth. >> well, it's great to be with you. thanks for having me on your program. >> here's the big bottom line question -- is it your well-informed expectation that democrats have done enough to keep their senate majority after tomorrow's election? >> yes, i do believe we're going to hold the majority. we put in an awful lot of work over these last two years, primarily putting together our ground campaign in all of these states, which are going to be critical.

you mentioned the large turnout that we're seeing in our battleground states. part of that reason is the fact that we have been working very aggressively on the ground, understanding how a ground game is important when you are in a very tight race and we knew right from the outset as we started this last year that these were all going to be incredibly tight races. they're in battleground states and by definition, a battleground state is a really close election. certainly we're seeing that right now. and this is where organization and getting your voters out makes a difference. we have made unprecedented investments, the most investments that the dscc has ever made in our ground races, key races. senator, in is alex wagner. we were just talking about the state of georgia and how that race effectively hangs on a razor's edge. if no candidate gets 50% of the vote, are there resources with the expectation of a possible runoff, getting ready to

mobilize voters or for another vote on december 6th? is that something you guys have been thinking about? is that a game plan there? >> our focus is to win on election day. we do not want to go to december 6. we want to win. we're completely focused on making sure we get the turnout that we need to get warnock over that 50% mark. but should we have to go into a runoff, we will definitely be able to martial those resources. you can imagine as you looked at the math there that georgia could be the absolute pivotal state for the country. so i believe you'll see plenty of resources going into georgia in those few weeks if there is indeed a runoff. >> senator gary peters. sir, thank you for your time tonight. thank you. appreciate you being here. >> thank you, rachel. good to be with you. take care. >> i keep thinking listening to

him express that confidence there. it was mitch mcconnell who said that the republicans might not get the senate back because of candidate quality. that was his phrase, right? even the republicans think of this as basically their scratch-and-dent class of candidates and yet we have absolutely no idea if democrats or republicans are going to end up on top at the end. >> this is the risk of outsourcing your candidate choices to the former president. i mean donald trump essentially picked the field and mitch mcconnell was willing to sit down for that. i think republicans have no one to blame but themselves for outsourcing leadership of their party to a former president who has no interest in the party. >> but they may not be blaming anybody.

we'll just end up with herbal walker and -- >> i mean, tommy tuberville -- >> if herschel walker -- it's important to know the democrats with the expectation they would inevitably lose. bolduc got money effectively. there were groups advertising how they put him at the front of the line in the process because they thought maggie hassan would have an easier time beating him and you have to wonder is there buyer's remorse? >> i think the other candidate would have an even better shot against maggie hassan. new hampshire is a very, very purple state. if this is going to be a red election year, hassan would have had a tough time anyway. so bolduc may have been the -- but you end up with him talking about litter boxes. >> if you play with fire by putting election -- i'm still struck by the first thing you

said when we sat down. if there's a red wave, we'll be covering a red wave. if there's a blue wave, the other side will be covering voter fraud. we do not live in normal times. >> can i just say only in america could the party behind an insurrection, that wrapped its arms around the attempted overthrow of the government even be viable. think about what happened with richard nixon. republicans got wiped out. and trying to foment a violent overthrow of the government is actually, you know what -- >> try something that makes you electable. >> and the violent thing happened. the only thing they didn't close the loop on is actually winning. >> it's a test. herschel walker is a test on how far can you go on thermostatic public opinion.

one party controls all the branches, people are frustrated with the direction of the country. and steve was just doing the math. that's not even a modern phenomenon. we've seen this going all the way back to mid terms after the civil war, where like the party that literally supported secession and treason was able to win mid terms not that long afternoon, the assassination of abraham lincoln because it was like, eh, i want the new guy. >> plumbers and gym teachers going to jail for january 6th is not the same thing as people who planned it and having accountability. their question of accountability is still pending because of the slowness of the legal process around this thing. >> political memories tend to be very short in public opinion. to me walker and masters to a certain extent is a profoundly unlikable, weird dude. just put someone on the ballot line, it's basically a 50/50

country and if the other party controls, maybe money falls from the tree. >> tribalism is what's being borne out -- >> the difference is after watergate richard nixon got on the helicopter and had to resign. after the iran-contra scandal, which reagan got away with, and the republicans paid nothing. if you talk about the moral imperative there, there isn't much of a difference. but accountability for nixon ensured that there would be a consequence. >> and i learned this in ultra again. accountability is because the republican party is broken. it is being corrupted from the top to the bottom and now the bottom back up to the top. the justice system and the congressional committees were never supposed to exist in a vacuum without voters turning these people out. so what is broken isn't just the slow and excruciating wheels of justice and the limits of the congressional investigation that

can't enforce all their subpoenas, can't or won't, it's that the politics on one side of the aisle are totally broken. >> and it's interdependent. accountability needs to be fast enough for there to be political consequences and political consequences need to be felt by those at the top. >> republicans understand short attention spans can be met by celebrity. you just pick somebody famous. and democrats don't do that. >> old football star. >> they've had cooter, they've had goober, they've had sonny bono. it's a trend. >> democrats couldn't even get oprah. >> it's not too late. >> i've never been happier. still ahead, lots more to come.

we're going to be talking about the fight over intimidation at the polls, to make sure all the votes cast get counted. election lawyer mark elias is going to be joining us coming up and also, joy my say those words again. i know exactly what you mean. i just like them together.

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our thanks, your rewards. today the u.s. justice department announced plans to send federal election monitors to 64 jurisdictions across 24 different states tomorrow. these d.o.j. monitors will be looking at compliance with

federal voting rights laws. this is not a new thing. the justice department has done this in every election since 1965. it's a normal, important, expected part of keeping elections free and fair and within the law. right after the announcement, a republican secretary, secretary of state in missouri announced missouri will not let federal monitors in. he told federal officials they will not be able to observe polling places in missouri and said justice department officials were, quote, jack booted thugs. a senior figure says staffers from the justice department will still visit missouri polling sites tomorrow but they have agreed to remain outside those sites rather than going inside. just a taste of the kinds of conflict happening already with of course much more expected on election day itself. our colleague ari melber will be heading up nbc's vote watch tomorrow night keeping an eye on these fights and legal battles and controversies. what are you watching for?

>> we're going to hope for the best and track everything. one thing we're watching right now that relates to what you're reporting on is how there are numerically more lawsuits than last cycle. some do tackle the context of these rising threats, election workers donning body armor. there are candidates in the republican party following the trump legal play book, which is not to use lawsuits to resolve fact, but as a pretext to overturn election results. democrats are winning core victories in several stays, michigan, georgia, wisconsin, part of a total of eight victories for what you might call the pro-democracy or pro voting rights side, which brings us to someone many people know in this legal political space, the top lawyer for hillary clinton's campaign, mark elias, he runs democracy doc. rachel mentioned the state-federal clash. let's begin with what you and others are calling a big day in these court victories. what happened today? >> today was a victory for democracy in court.

we saw judges in arizona, in michigan, in new york, in pennsylvania, in georgia, in wisconsin all hear and decide cases today that mean that voters will have an opportunity to vote and states will be required to tally those votes accurately. and we oftentimes focus on the big dramatic cases and we had

some of those today. that hand count that we worried about. we won that case today in court. the case in wisconsin that had so many people upset where republicans are trying to disenfranchise our men and women in uniform trying to vote in the military. we won that case today. but there were other cases that fly under the radar screen. if you look online, you can see images of duchess county literally wheeling voting machines into vassar college as a result of a lawsuit that requires the students of vassar to be able to vote on campus. we don't know what comes tomorrow but today was a good day for democracy. >> what about what rachel reported on, this clash at the state level? how does that work and what is the recourse if states are trying to resist what is supposed to be routine federal oversight to make sure everyone,

regardless of party, has access to the polls? >> i hate to draw historical comparisons but we have seen the images of state officials telling federal officials that they can't come in to enforce rights. we saw that in the 1960s when governors and attorneys generals thought they could keep the federal government out from protecting the rights of black individuals trying to vote, trying to attend school and the fact is that it's no different today. the federal government has an important role in federal law to ensure that federal elections, and that's what these are, these are federal elections, are conducted fairly and that voters are not being intimidated or otherwise harassed when voting. >> mark, it's nicolle. nice to see you again. i want to ask about the post-election legal shenanigans that you're prepared for and if there's another bucket of sort of variables, if this, then that. are you looking at these tight senate races and expecting lawsuits to be filed as an election strategy on the republican side? >> i do. look, i think that the

republican party learned something from 2020, which was that post-election litigation can do one thing for them, which is to create an environment of election deniers, but it can't do another thing, which is you can't go into court with crazy theories involving, you know, dead venezuelan leaders and mythological sea creature. so what i think we're seeing republicans do in the leadup to election day is laying the predicate to do two things. number one, to try to slow down the vote count. why do they want to slow down the vote counting? because they're going to claim that a slow vote count is a sign of fraud. so they simultaneously make it harder for states to count ballots quickly and then use the fact that it's slow as a rationale to dispute those results. the second thing i think we're going to see them do is gin up their base and try to, frankly, intimidate either directly or just atmospherically state and local election officials who are under a lot of stress on election day and the days after in their own tallying and certification processes.

>> you really laid that out. something we're watching for is the court a place to double-check they are winning or are they going as a ruse to overturn what would otherwise be the outcome. >> coming up next, the obama effect. in the new nbc poll there is one political figure in the whole country who has a net positive approval rating one of them. his name is barack obama. he is back on the campaign trail. our political insiders will look at that effect coming up next.

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i understand that democracy might not seem like a top priority right now. especially when you're worried about paying the bills. but when true democracy goes away, we've seen throughout history, we've seen around the world when true democracy goes away, people get hurt. it has real consequences. >> former president barack obama speaking in philadelphia this weekend laying out the stakes in this mid-term election. for more on that, we turn now to

joy reid, who is standing boy with our team of political insiders. >> thank you very much. i'm in a different studio now. president barack obama joined president biden at a campaign event in philadelphia for democratic gubernatorial candidate josh shapiro and senate candidate john fetterman over the weekend. that is one of several stops obama made over the past two weeks leading up to election day. he's been to michigan, nevada and cutting political ads for candidates in new hampshire and illinois as he lends considerable support to tight races. i'm joined by simone sanders townsend, a former white house press secretary jen psaki and carlos curbelo. what import do you think he had being in that state? >> i came to wisconsin the day after the rally was over but the energy from president obama was still very much alive and well. i went canvassing with some

organizers and they specifically told me before they were going out for their canvas that president obama's presence in the state let them know that what they were doing was important. it was a motivator for the organizers. i was with lieutenant governor barnes who is running for senate and when i was out with him at a hub, a tech hub where they had lots of black and latino businesses, folks were coming up and saying we saw you at the rally, we're pulling for you, we're excited. i think the goal was achieved. people were excited. it reminded them this election is very important. the question is are they going to vote. if you look at the numbers from nevada and wisconsin from early vote, i think they are. >> obviously president obama is the closer. he is the single most talented politician, though josh shapiro did a pretty good obama. >> he did, he captured that. >> what is the obama team thinking about how to use him?

i did hear some folks saying, hey, you got a black woman running in north carolina, president obama, then senator won north carolina by 14,000, he barely lost them in '12. that could be viable. how do they decide where to send him? >> they really focus on sending him out where people are already voting. they know if they can inspire people, light a fire, get them excited, make them feel like what they're doing is important, not only will they go cast their ballot but they will volunteer and that is so pivotal in the final weeks. they've actually seen an uptick in that. it works because he's not only popular with progressives and moderates as you're dividing people in the party which i don't think most people in the country do but he weaves in all the issues that matter. most people are not one-issue voters.

they care about making sure their votes count and they can put food on the table and he's able to weave that. that's a very good model for democrats moving forward. you don't have to pick, you have to do all of them. >> and it used to be that president obama very much motivated the other side. i wonder if that has cooled down? >> that has certainly faded, joy. president obama has the benefit of being perceived as being a little bit over the fray, above the fray because he hasn't been in the mud for a long time. he's not popular with republicans but he's not offensive to many republicans. maybe perhaps the way george w. bush is perceived by some democrats where they think back on those times and think he maybe wasn't too bad. >> he's looking good. >> they're giving the candy to michelle obama. >> the big question is is the obama coalition still in tact? we know some of those voters have strayed, hispanics and some african-american voters.

can he bring those people back? we'll know tomorrow. >> we will see. the insiders have spoken. rachel, back to you. >> thank you very much, joy. let's bring in our friend stephanie ruhle, host of "the 11th hour" on nbc. good to see you. >> good to be here. >> i want to ask you an economic messaging question. they were talking about president obama being the closer and knowing the right way to talk about these issues. is president obama talking about the economy in these closing days of the campaign in a way that tells a story that is true and motivating to democrats? >> he certainly is and he's doing it in a fantastic way. over the summer republicans have been messaging about the economy nonstop. they outspent democrats 5-1. this was an issue but democrats weren't talking about it enough. it's not that we have a good economy or bad economy, it's a complicated one. democrats were making good arguments saying if you don't have a functioning democracy, there's no way you're going to have a good economy. however, that doesn't sell when

people are at the grocery store. it was president obama over the last week that reminded people republicans are pounding the table saying you don't like the economy, vote for republicans. they're not only not offering a solution, in many instances, we're going to hurt social security, we're going to hurt medicare and medicaid, it's going to be detrimental to voters and voters seem to be in the last few weeks realizing, oh, i need to pay attention to what i could get on the other side. he's been an extraordinarily effective messenger. the question is was it too late. >> when you say it's a complicated economy, it's a terrible message but it's also true. i was talking with a friend the other day the issue about the job situation in her small town in western new england and i was

like, you know what, the bottom line that nobody is talking about is unemployment is at 3.5%. unemployment is like build the man camps in north dakota levels all over the country. unemployment hasn't been this low in 50 years. yes, there's other things going on in the economy, too, but isn't that something for the democrats to be running on? >> without a doubt they could be making the argument if you're struggling, there's not just a job out there, there could be two jobs. in battleground states, arizona, georgia, the jobs picture is even better. look at the port of savannah, booming. phoenix, arizona is going to be a huge beneficiary of the chips act. it has become a mini tech hub. they've got very strong jobs pictures. that's something people can and should pay attention to. >> more than 2 million people who have already voted in the great state of carolina. the democrat who is hoping they voted for her is going to join us next. stay with us.

good things are happening. people are certainly turning out here in north carolina. we're excited about that. that's exactly what we want to happen. i believe in democracy, i certainly believe in a free and fair election. i'm excited. >> that's north carolina u.s. senate candidate sherry beasley talking earlier today. there is an open u.s. senate seat. judge beasley is running for that seat as a democrat against republican challenger congressman ted bud. now, when she talked about turnout in north carolina, she's

right. already more than 2 million voters have cast their ballots early in north carolina. that's up from the record-breaking turnout in the last mid term in north carolina in 2018. joining us is cheri beasley, former justice of the state supreme court. thank you for joining us. we know this is a big night. >> hi, rachel. >> we spoke with gary peters. he told us he's confident that democrats have done enough to hold the democrats in the senate. bottom line how do you feel coming into tomorrow and how have things gone versus your expectations? >> you know, i feel great. we're really excited about the energy and enthusiasm we're seeing in this race. people are very much in tune and understand the magnitude of this race and why we must all feel a sense of urgency and north carolina deserves a senator who is going to fight hard for us,

who will not put corporate and special interests and his own above ours. so things are going very well here. >> this is alex wagner. a lot of democrats are running against republicans who have been shy to outline exactly what they would do on abortion. your opponent was a co-sponsor of a house bill, a federal ban at 15 weeks on abortion. a lot of other issues tend to get on the top of the list. do you feel like democrats are coming out specifically on the issue of abortion in north carolina? well, abortion is a real issue and the constitutionally protected right to an abortion is a real issue here. the majority of north carolinians, like a majority of americans support the framework as outlined in roe v. wade. ted bud came out with the most extremist position on this, supporting an absolute ban on abortion, without exception for rape or incest. a woman with an ectopic pregnancy or septic uterus might not be able the get the treatment they need and women

will die. that is not acceptable. i will fight hard to make sure that roe v. wade is the law of the land. >> miss beasley, we've spoken with a few different senate candidates and there is something unique in the election with the prospect that your opponent will not accept the results if he does not win the election. i wonder if you and your campaign have made contingency plans of how you'll handle that if that's the scenario you are up again when all the results come in in north carolina? >> congressman ted budd didn't accept the results of the 2020 election. he failed to certify the 2020 election and even after all of that violence with the mob at the capitol and some people who were beaten with the american flag, he still denied the validity of that election. even when pressed about this race, he will not say he'll accept the results of the

election. i've been a judge for over two decades and served as chief justice of the supreme court of north carolina, spent my life upholding the rule of law and the constitution and it is important that we have a senator who believes in democracy and who is going to fight hard for it, not one who is trying to overthrow the election or is trying to undermine democracy. i do hope that your viewers will not only vote in the north carolina election and stay in line if the lines are too long. it is so important that we stay the course in this election. it's not too late to volunteer. i hope they will also go to cheribeasley.com for more information about my campaign. >> thank you for your time tonight and good luck tomorrow. >> thank you, rachel. >> all right. joining us now is the great steve kornacki once again at the big board.

when we are thinking about tomorrow and how the results are going to be coming in, thinking about sort of preparing for a long night or indeed as you were saying not long ago, a long month, what should people be thinking about in terms of the start of the night and what they should be watching for? >> right off the bat, 7:00 eastern time, just about all of florida minus the panhandle will close. you have that senate race and governor's race in florida. they are one of the most efficient states of getting the votes reported out. within half an hour of the polls closing, you'll get the early vote and mail vote, that will be two-thirds of the votes and within an hour or two you'll get most all of the same-day votes. we should have pretty expansive results quickly from florida. one place to look to will be miami dade county. one of the themes were the inroads republicans made with hispanic voters, it's where trump cut the democratic margin from 30 to inside of 10.

we'll look at florida early. at 7:00 the polls will close in georgia as well. georgia is going to allow this time the precounting, the pretabulation of mail-in and early votes before polls close, as long as the ballots are in a separated area, it has the potential, the significance of that, in terms of watching results come in, you could get a lot of votes released very early in georgia. could be a lot of mail vote, a lot of early vote that's released early in the night in georgia. you could see the democrats jump out to a significant early lead in georgia. similar to north carolina and ohio.

you just had cheri beasley on. 7:30 poll closing time in north carolina and ohio as well. a similar pattern where you'll get that early-in mail generally tabulated first and it's going to be one of those things where you watch the democratic numbers shoot out to a lead. the question is is it big enough to withstand the same day and there's more that gets tabulated during the end of the night and those will be early ones. pennsylvania, we saw it in 2020, it may not go as long as it did in 2020 but if it's close at all, we could certainly be into wednesday, maybe even later in pennsylvania and i think arizona and nevada, if you've got close races in either one of those states, arizona especially, it's necessarily going to be a days' long process if it's a razor thin race. >> steve, along those lines,

thinking about time differences and poll closing times and ultimate results, we haven't been talking tonight about control of the house but, i mean, one of the things we might be looking for is results to come in for a state like california in terms of learning about the total margin in the house, right? that could be weeks. >> there's a couple -- there's a range of possibilities here. virginia closes at 7 and there's three house districts in virginia we're going to be keeping an eye on. if all three of them were given real positive indications for republicans, you might know early from virginia that republicans are having a big night in the house. if you flip that around and the democrats are doing surprisingly well in those virginia seats let's say and suddenly you start talking about the democrats having a better-than-expected

night in the house, if it ever came to a scenario where democrats had a shot at keeping control of the house, that would mean they end up with 220, 221 seats, something like that, just over that 218, that would necessarily mean, as you're saying, that it would come down to the west coast, it would come down to california. there's a whole bunch of seats that democratic majority would depend on in california. then the whole world would discover what political junkies have known for years now, that california is the slowest, most glacial straight at getting their reporting out. >> and the whole narrative has crystallized and no one is paying attention that california's votes are nowhere

near in. >> part of the reason we have such a slow vote is because republican legislators have done everything in their power to stop what is known as precanvassing, which is basically the processing of the ballots, opening up, checking the addresses about what's on file, not actually counting the ballots. they take advantage and they've effectively weaponized that day to counting votes. we should not lose sight of the reason it's taking a long time. >> the red mirage is their strategy, we know from the january 6th committee. >> nicole, how much confidence do you have in our ability to be patient? >> none. >> i think half the country, the one that still trusts our democracy, the one that believes that elections are sacred and i would add liz cheney to those numbers but it's mostly the democratic party, i think they have a lot of patience because it's about respecting the process. i don't know if everybody understands what just said but it's really important. and i think the country

understands why. it was trump's strategy in 2020 not to win but what everyone just saw, the red mirage. the reason he goes out at 3 a.m. and says stop the counting it's because even he knew it was fake. half wants to honor the process but the other half wants to stop the mirage. >> my fear is it's not even about patience, it's about whether proud boy types and oath keepers are willing to fill out that role in violence. >> and how many times can you play the same trick on the same people and expect to get away with it over and over again. our coverage continues after this. stay with us.

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tomorrow's election gives us so much to cover, so many stories to follow. i'm not sure it is possible to get your head truly around it but we are going to do our best. our live coverage of results as they come in starts tomorrow at 6 p.m. eastern. exit polling, candidate speeches, coverage from reporters on the ground around the country. steve kornacki's khakis, if it's a story we'll have it for you, starting at 6 p.m. eastern or until the cows are too tired to go home. . >> today we face an inflection point, one of the moment that's comes on every three or four