that's a wrap for me on a very busy day. let's get to kendis gibson. >> good day, everybody. i'm picking up on that breaking news coverage. a new advisory within the last few minutes. hurricane dorian described now as an extremely dangerous

category 4 storm at this hour. the prime minister they're begging residents to leave the keys and relocate to the main island. dozens of shelters have now been ordered to take in thousands of people. dorian is expected to make a direct hit on the sunshine state. but odds of a direct landfall is dropping. several counties under mandatory evacuations. you see some of the scenes throughout the east coast right now, people stocking up on bottled water, costco a busy place on this saturday. parts of south carolina and georgia under emergency orders. long lines at gas stations with fuel shortages a major concern at this hour. people are waiting in line for hours to collect sandbags. we have team coverage for you on this saturday. up and down the florida coast. we begin with bill karens who is

here with the brand new advisory. we just received from the weather service. >> we were thinking we had the possibility of getting a category five within this. they did measure a wind that was 160 miles per hour. if it gets to a category five, it doesn't matter for any land areas. it looks -- and as impressive as you would get, a textbook major hurricane, if 2 gets to cat five. the well defined wide eye. 100 mile wide tropical storm force wind field. if this was on top of florida or the islands in the bahamas, we'd be having mass devastation and catastrophe. it's not there yet, we are hoping it can weaken a little bit. by the time it gets to the northern bahamas.

now we're down to about 8 miles per hour, this is going to continue to slow down and eventually stall about 36 to 48 hours from now, that's what's going to spare florida from getting a direct hit. it doesn't look like it's going to get pushed hard up to the west to get in there. i zoomed in here. it looked like something from lord of the rings, this is the eye of the storm. you can see how wide the eye, you can see how symmetrical. all these ripples around the center of the eye. these are the thunderstorm tops that spin out from the center and rotate out. this is where the highest winds are. it's amazing that nature could produce something like this, it looks beautiful when you see it like this, it's incredible from space. about 22 to 30,000 miles above. let me give you the forecast, what has changed. what still could change, the biggest takeaway in the last 24 hours has been to take the cone of uncertainty out of miami, out

of tampa, out of western portions of the panhandle and we've shifted it northward but we've included our friends in central north carolina. charlotte, raliegh included. everyone here still in the cone. the best thing that happened today was that we still continue with an off shore track. and it's about a 50% possibility that this remains a fish storm. that would be a storm that is big, bad and powerful and stays over water. and doesn't ever make landfall. on the periphery of it, and tropical storm force winds. yes, even with a fish storm, we still need to wait and see. we could get a land fall in south carolina or north carolina, the odds of a direct landfall in florida. i was down to about 25%, it may even be lower than that now. it's going to be close enough that we don't want people to stop preparing. you may have to evacuate also. just in case we get another

shift in the models at the last second. we don't want to be unprepared for a category 4 storm. that's why we have to listen to all our emergency managers. we'll continue to track, all of these squiggly lines. west palm beach, central florida and up like this, now they shifted about 200 miles to the east. many of these are a fish storm, the yellow lines are a hurricane model that's a popular one we watch for many years, decent accuracy, that's a fish storm, and then just along the north carolina coast, maybe brushing the outer banks. many of them do the same thing, going to be a close call, it looks like for charleston. those areas get hit by a storm about once every four years. the building codes are meant for storms like that, have minimal impacts. obviously you don't want to deal with it, school cancellations, work cancellations. stuff like that, it wouldn't be the devastating category 4

impacts we're looking at down in florida a couple days ago. that's all very positive stuff. we'll continue to watch it, these things shift. some of this could start shifting back toward the coast. we're talking about the wiggle room here about 70 to 100 miles. which isn't a lot, considering the storm is three days away. >> while all of that appears at least at this point parts of florida will be spared from a direct hit, there are parts of the bahamas where it will avoid. >> i don't want to minimize that. people in freeport and the northern portion of the island. i don't think nassau is going to get it too bad. it could very well go through. when i was showing you the satellite picture, the bottom half of the storm, has very powerful winds with it, the northern portion of the bahamas look to go through the southern portion of this storm, they could get significant damage from a category 4, especially one that stalls over the top of you for 24, 36 maybe even 48

hours? >> yeah, it's moving at 8 miles an hour right now, it could slow down. it's expected to hit. >> i bet we get to sunday night, monday morning, that speed will be two, three? >> less than walking speed. >> yes. let's bring in katherine clark from florida. the forecast has gotten a little bit better for florida. are people still getting prepared right there? >> kendis, that's absolutely right. people have been preparing for days here in satellite beach. some as early as thursday, some are doing that right now. but they don't want to take any chances, because this shopping center took a big hit in 2017 with hurricane irma, we're told that some of these windows got blown out, there's a 7-eleven on the corner, the roof got blown off of that business as well. we're here in brevard county, there is a mandatory evacuation order in many place that begins

at 8:00 a.m. tomorrow for some areas. the low lying areas, the flood prone areas as well as barrier islands, we are in that zone. but behind us in the shopping center, there are businesses that are remaining open. they're watching this system, they're going to try to ride it out. a lot of these owners have gone through a lot of hurricanes before, and now that they're seeing that the hurricane is shifting a bit. they're thinking maybe they can stay open, even though they are open for business, it's a parking lot. this parking lot is pretty empty, we're told this is a busy holiday weekend, it's a labor day weekend. this should be packed. but there are barely any cars and there is an italian restaurant over here, we spoke with the owner just a few minutes ago, and he was saying, he doesn't really have any customers right now. but he is open for business. he's going to take a big hit this weekend but hopefully maybe as this hurricane continues to

shift and shift away from florida he can make up some of the loss this weekend as folks start to come back. but as i mentioned earlier, there still is a mandatory evacuation in place for brevard county, 8:00 a.m., but just certain flood prone areas right now, kendis? >> yeah, hopefully people will heed that warning. we're going to shift now south about two hours to del ray beach. our thanks to kathy park. clearly the holiday weekend has been salvaged there, but i'm sure 24 hours ago, there were people that were nervous. >> not out of the woods here, this is a barrier island under voluntary evacuation order, because when the storm comes,

you will feel the effects here, and that storm surge is going to come in and impact buildings, roads and businesses. i want to turn now to the del ray beach city manager. can you tell me what we're seeing behind us in terms of preparedness? >> yes, good afternoon, we have one of our lifeguard towers that has been secured in place, those anchor points. there's four anchor points per tower. they're eight foot into the ground and we have it strapped down so when the storm surge comes and the heavy winds come, that tower stays in place and we protect that asset. >> what other measures are you taking to prepare? >> we are in hurricane preparation mode. just because dorian has turned and shifted to the north, we are far from out of the cone. and we want to make sure people don't get lacksadaisical.

we saw a shift to the north this morning, we could wake up and see a shift to the south. it's going to bring heavy winds and extremely high storm surges. and when you're on a barrier island such as this, those storm surges can come across 6, 8, 12 feet and wash everything in its path away. we're telling our community, stay vigilant, stay alert, continue to see out your preparation, and make sure you don't let your guard down and get caught off guard. >> reporter: you were the fire chief in coral gables in miami. tell us about the lessons learned there? >> i was, woulding that evening. we went to bed thinking that hurricane andrew was coming to north broward palm beach county, and that storm was going to affect this area.

hurricane andrew shifted and turned dead east toward miami-dade county, as you're aware, went through homestead and devastated all south county of miami-dade. these things are so unpredictable. it's way too early to call. continue out your plans, you better be safe than sorry. >> absolutely. i'm sorry to hear about your home. i'm glad you're here keeping people safe with your expertise and knowledge. floridians, from hurricane andrew in 1992, especially lessons learned during irma two years ago, and what we know about dorian is how unpredictable it has been. the only consistency with the storm, is its inconsistency. that's why everyone here, especially the authorities still on their toes because of this storm. >> neil said it right there, it can change within a 24 hour period. msnbc's marina in del ray beach florida.

there is other news to tell you about this saturday. including president trump seemingly threatening to sue his former secretary. his warning to his now fired assistant and the details about what caused the dramatic departure from the white house. we're continuing to track hurricane dorian. the dangerous category four storm is taking aim at the bahamas. you see the radar right there. it is a category 4 packing winds of 140 miles an hour. and the latest track right now appears to send it up the coast of the u.s. on the east coast. people in cape hatteras should be on the lookout. about 50% of people with severe asthma have too many cells called eosinophils in their lungs. eosinophils are a key cause of severe asthma. fasenra is designed to target and remove these cells.

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international space station. what will happen on the east coast of the u.s. we are tracking the storm and will continue to bring you the latest forecast in a few moments right here on msnbc. with a monster storm within days of impacting the united states, the first message from the president of the united states today wasn't about the storm. madeleine west ewesterhaus. >> she has a fully enforceable confidentiality agreement. she's a very good person and i don't think there would be a need to use it. she was forced out this week, after she shared intimate details about the first family in an off the record conversation with journalists.

the president's thought on his daughter's weight, tiffany. >> joining me now, new york times chief white house correspondent and political analyst peter baker, thank you for being here on a holiday weekend. i want to start with you here, we'll get to westerhout in a minute. moments ago -- >> the president is staying at camp david a couple nights after cancelling his planned trip to poland and he is at his golf club in sterling, virginia. a representative from his team handling fema is with the president, he's getting hourly updates on the hurricane, and he

will go back to camp david and it's our understanding there will be a hurricane briefing in a larger sense this afternoon. there have been two a day coming into this weekend. and so the president being in the u.s. as opposed to in europe, was a better dhois given the uncertainty of the path of the storm. he will be on a golf course this afternoon at the same time the storm has not hit land fall today. and the president likes to go golfing and does not seem to be bothered by that criticism he will have more briefings about the hurricane and will talk about it, he's been using his twitter feed to put out some of the warnings and updated guidance he's been getting. following the storm caused a change to his plans and yet not a change to his habit of enjoying golf on the weekend. >> kelly, what are we too make of that tweet that the president sebt out earlier today about his

former assistant the. >> well, certainly the president is sending a clear signal that he does not want his newly departed assistant the to write a book or tell all or do any more talking to the media. it is certainly unusual to have any public employee bound by a confidentiality agreement. certainly those in the campaign. that's a different matter. this was an unfortunate event for everyone involved to have a private person, someone who works so closely with the president as an executive assistant typically has no interaction with the media. this was one of those unusual cases where she was with reporters during the vacation time of the president in august. and this was an off the record gathering. some reporters spoke to other reporters and then that carried on to other reporters hearing about it, it got back to the

white house. was made known to the president and the president was uncomfortable about this, any discussion of his family, and then the events transpired where she is now out. certainly off the record conversations happen all the time, it is unusual to have off the record conversations with people who have this kind of relationship who would talk about the president's family. that is unusual even in a white house coverage. typically these conversations are much more about the day to day business of the white house and not about personal details of a president's family, that's the kind of line that certainly for president trump who is so much about family, many critics say his family is too involved in the white house. daughter tiffany not among those, she's a georgetown law student and maybe one of the more private members of the trump family. the president making this worse by speak about and tweeting

about tiffany. so he is in effect confirming that tiffany was a part of this discussion. and he chose not to do that, there may have been less attention on his daughter. but the president shined a light by drawing that attention himself. >> if the president has just ignored the tiffany part. many people may not have bereaved any of it. peter, i want to get you into the conversation. your colleagues report that one former senior official said that westerhout thought she was a senior adviser, trying to draft some of the president's tweets. was she a part of the president's inner circle and if so, how did she make her way there? >> she did not have a long history with president trump prior to the campaign. she was not a long supporter of his. she's a young woman who worked as an intern in the romney campaign in 2012, brought in by the rnc team that comes, in trying to help president trump

establish the white house at the beginning of his administration, she did grow close to the president. she's one of the survivors, one of the few originals still in the same place, as the personal assistant he had recently promomented her. she had eyes on a lot of things that were happening in his world. that's someone the president needs to trust, someone the president understands holds a lot of secrets of any president, any white house. and that's why i think you saw since tiffany in his tweet this morning with any future talking she might do, he did couch his threat in a somewhat friendly way, he forgave her and was trying to be understanding. there was no question she would get in trouble as kelly said, i don't know that a nondisclosure agreement of a public employee is binding. that has real legal issues, certainly as a matter of whether you're comfortable or not, a president on -- against you has been something that a lot of

trump people have found to be a pretty withering experience if they have broken with it publicly. he does not want her to break with him publicly. and we don't know that she would. >> that is the question, i'm assuming the president read the new york times yesterday, one publishing company has reached out to westerhout. she was someone who sat right outside the president's office. they can understand why a publishing company can reach out to her. if anybody, she has a lot of the president's secrets. the reporting shows she did not have a nondisclosure agreement. you're not supposed to be enforceable anyway. i don't think it sounds like the

president. she made a mistake and that she feels badly about it. he was trying to let her know. he thinks she's bound to silence in some way, and should not entertain any book deals. it seems like they were close, and she had earned his trust, and he rewarded that with a promotion and a lot of access. and responsibility. it was interesting to read his tweet and see that he is -- this is someone he had grown fond of, and the reporting shows he had equivocated on whether or not to fire her. although what she did was clearly wrong, it seems like he's conflicted, and he usually season the. >> i'm going to leave it there,

kelly o'donnell, appreciate your time. coming up, the big news that we learned just within the last couple hours. about the fourth presidential debate. even before the third one, we just got big news from the dnc. we're tracking the major change in the forecast, hurricane dorian. florida could be spared a direct hit. where will the storm end up. you see where it is right now, the bahamas will be feeling the effects within the next few hours and then where does it go? when you shop for your home at wayfair,

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we're live with pictures from dorian. this island will start feeling the effects of this powerful storm early sunday morning. we'll get the update on the dangerous situation there in just a few minutes. mark your calendars, october 15th, possibly 16th, that's when democratic presidential candidates will collect in debate number four. the deadline this past week for

those same qualifications knocked out half of the contenders from securing a spot on the big stage in houston. i want to bring in my panel right now. the assistant secretary of state and former spokesperson. a board member of republican women for congress. welcome to all of you. philippe, do you expect those left unite in the houston debate will make that stage come two months from now in october? >> it's hard to say, it's a strange system, on the whole, i think one learning moment from 2020 is that for as good as the intentions were by the dnc, the approach to who makes debates on what night, it's a failure. it's great that the next debate will have ten on one stage. it's weird that the criteria for

the fourth debate isn't a continued grab up. you have some people, tulsi gabbard may be the closest one and maybe tom steyer who are closest to qualifying for the third, missed it, and might for the fourth. it's strange, it doesn't suit anybody, and especially if it takes the number to 10 or 11 or 12 and you have to go to two nights. the democratsen did the get it right this cycle. >> they came up with this plan a long time ago. well before many of the candidates got into the ring. little did they know they would have 23 or so candidates. earlier in the week, we had senator gillibrand who dropped out on wednesday. you get a sense that many of the other candidates are not going to make it to the debate stage will drop out before that next debate? >> i get that sense. it's practical, right? they want to be serious about this, i think democrats are

understanding what's at stake. with each week, we see more and more on the line from this administration. the fact that we're barreling toward a recession in a way. and trump seems to want to pull high jinx likelying about the chinese and manipulating the markets. they're getting very serious about how they talk to each other. i think kirsten gillibrand did the right thing. look, politics was full of big egos, stepping out of the ring is a big thing for some of these people who really believe they had a chance, i know some of them will do it, i don't know that there will be much love lost. cory booker and kirsten gillibrand hugged it out. people will do the right thing and step out of the race. >> they'll possibly have to work back in the senate together at some point. why not hug it out. you have the debates in houston in less than two weeks. a lot of the candidates are not on the campaign trail, give us a

sense of what this weekend usually means. does it mean that voters are starting to pay attention to the presidential race? what's the importance of labor day when it comes to the presidential race? >> i found this hysterical. on one hand. next year -- on the one hand you'll read all these things, people have made their decision by september, by labor day. on the other hand you'll hear all these things of covert surprises. i think people are always paying attention, especially with 23, 24, 25 candidates, it's dribbling at you. i think labor day this year is pretty much all of us just saying, can we please just take a break from each other for a few days. the candidates want to take a break from the road. we all want to take a break from trump. trump's the only one that doesn't want to take a break. people are paying attention to

everything. the candidates are being very sober and honest with themselves, swalwell, mouton, inslee now gillibrand. no one is taking this too far. >> go ahead. >> i think tulsi gabbard is an outlier, she's the only one that's making this personal and screaming rigged and all the other things. we have to look at this for what it is, tulsi gabbard and others like her are side shows. they're taking away from the bigger picture. they have a way to beat trump and it's how they continue from here on out. >> there's a strategy that nobody has had to run this sort of race before. we'll leave it there. our thanks to both of you. we want to get back to our breaking news coverage. hurricane dorian. let's go now to the national hurricane center in miami. ken graham, who's joining us

right now. thank you for being here with me. >> we have a shift in the forecast a little bit right now. who should be worried? >> look how powerful. i mean, look at this zoom in on the eye, a powerful. we can't lose focus, this is a 150 mile per hour hurricane. very powerful. right now, the forecast hasn't changed much. over night we shifted a little bit toward the right. here's the dilemma. if we slow down, it has to slow down to make that right turn. right now we have it slowing down over the bahamas, devastating situation for the de ham mas. if it slows down later, we're closer to the florida coast, the cone is still important at this stage. >> i look at that and i know -- i covered matthew way back when.

i do recall the forecast looks eerily similar, and that was a devastating storm. >> you make a great point. it's a reminder that even if it's off the coast, this is a major hurricane. the onshore flow can cause some of the storm surge as well, a little wiggle, if you think about it, when they slow down, a small wobble, you can quickly get closer to the coast, and you're on the left side of the track, that's a reminder to everybody, don't lose focus, things can change, the forecast can go back and forth a little bit. >> i should mention that our meteorologists are joining me right now, bill, as you're taking a look at that forecast and seeing what's happening, what are you thinking in. >> hi, ken. >> the biggest thing i'm looking at, are you guys seeing, once we get that stall over the bahamas, is there anything that could

then move it more west? once we get to say monday morning and the storm has stalled and started going north, is that when we're going to give the all clear to areas in florida? >> i think once you get that, we'll have an all clear in the way of maybe some sort of land fall, especially if it occurs over the bahamas. what worries me is that some of the models indicate it could occur later. if it occurs later, we'll be looking at it coming toward us before it moves to the north. the closer to the coast, the hurricane force winds. look at the tropical storm force winds. you could still see some of those tropical storm force winds over the inland areas of florida. you're going to see some impacts. we have to be careful, but the whole gain is when is it going to feel the disturbance up in the great lakes. we'll be watching very close. >> everyone on the carolina coastline, georgia coastline, they want to know, they're in

the cone. what about the intensity for them, the warm water of the gulfstream, it won't be stalling out and churning up the water underneath it. what are the rains they could be looking at? >> if you keep it over the open water a little longer, you'll have more time over that warm water to stay stronger. a little more influence on the coast it could be weaker. it's interesting how that intensity could be impacted by where the track is. either way, you're talking a major hurricane off the georgia coast, by the time it gets to the carolinas, still a hurricane. we have the on shore flow, that's a lot of storm surge. >> it's pretty amazing how long we're going to have to point to this storm. >> that's five days from now, and six days off the outer banks? >> in a is thursday morning. we have a ways to go with this storm. >> yeah. we've been dealing with it for about a week now. in the meantime, many of those government planes that are

flying around, trying to -- >> constant missions around the clock. at 5:00 p.m. you're in the forecasting business -- the predicting business. is it a category 5 by 5:00 p.m. >> they were just in the center of it, the highest reading it got so far right by the 2:00 advisory. we thought if it was going to go category 5, it would be at the 2:00 advisoradvisory. they'll wait and see until they get an official measurement from the hurricane hunters. we vrn the had that yet. >> really it doesn't matter, cat 5, cat 4. >> it matters when it's over the bahamas. >> i mean that -- >> it's for the history books and the headlines that say, wow, we have a cat 5, i mean, that's a huge ordeal, we don't get that many of them. it's rare, but if it's away from land it's -- >> yeah. >> cruise ships and boats that are in the wrong spot. >> still important for us to remember that florida has been hit by some powerful storms in

recent history. >> with michael last year, i've seen way too many headlines that have been saying, dorian, biggest storm in decades to hit florida. there's people in the panhandle still recovering, still aren't even in their homes. they're like, we got hit by a cat 5 last year. it's an insult to them, just because it's a different part of florida. >> absolutely. up next, they're bracing for a direct hit from dorian. people are stocking up on water and boarding up windows. we're going to touch base with the bahamas. we'll have the impact of that within the next 24 hours. snacking can mean that pieces get stuck under mike's denture. but super poligrip gives him a tight seal. to help block out food particles. so he can enjoy the game. super poligrip.

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for people in florida. hurricane dorian potentially putting georgia or south carolina on alert. dangerous category 4 storm right now. it could be a category two the bahamas are the focus. a lot of people within the crosshairs. let's go over to ed fields who's a senior vice president of public affairs for the atlantis resort in the bahamas. can you hear me? >> i can hear you. >> what are you expecting to happen? >> i'm on paradise island which is actually quite a ways off from where we expect the hurricane to hilt. which is grand bahama. we're fine here, we're quite a ways outside the cone of probability.

and we're not anticipating having any major effects from the storm. >> yes, but it is a small community overall. it is one united community. what sort of warnings are you hearing and seeing on the television and on the radio going out to many of your fellow residents. >> obviously we're concerned about our fellow countrymen. our citizens in the northern bahamas. abatos specifically. one of the things our team is doing in atlantis is getting geared up to see how best we can assist those folks in the aftermath of the storm. we're working with some of our celebrity chefs so we can get in there early and assist with helping to serve meals post storm.

some guests made a determination theyen watted to leave on their own. we did not have a mandatory evacuation. wen did the even have a voluntary evacuation. everything here is fully operational. we're just -- at this point more concerned one of the things that happens over the years. when the reports are made, they don't see the bahamas as a chain of ian lads and tend to lump everything into one. it would be the equivalent of saying florida versus pointing out jacksonville versus key west. we're just here watching the storm with everyone else we're very concerned about our folks in the northern part of abacos. where the storm is to sit -- the

airport here is open, folks intend to keep the airport open during the duration of this storm so no closures are expected. we're here and watching like everyone else is. >> i spoke with a manage r. they are bracing, boarded up, you see the camera shot right there. the last couple hours or so. they have evacuated most of the persons that are there. you have been through storms before i assume you're a long time resident of the bahamas, you never get used to this sort of stuff, right? >> no, you don't. >> the government has put evacuation orders for people in

the northern part of abacos. i have been through roughly 15 hurricanes over the lifetime of my tenure here at atlantis. we always make sure our guests and staff, their safety and security is a priority. we've housed up to 3,000, 4,000 people during storms at this facility, so we have been through this, and it's not -- you know, it's not something you ever get used to. you just keep an eye on things and hope for the best. we have no control over mother nature and all we can do is be prepared. like everywhere else on the island and other islands, we have extensive preparedness. our building codes were stronger

than dade county codes. we have nowhere to evacuate too, so we have to be prepared. >> that's true. i was listening to many of the warnings. we'll leave it right there. straight ahead right here, as we continue to cover hurricane dorian. the dangerous category 4 storm just shy of being declared a category 5. some folks remember andrew 25 years ago. what's the difference between those two categories, we'll break it down. your car insurance, so you only pay for what you need. nice. but, uh... what's up with your... partner? not again. limu that's your reflection. only pay for what you need.

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msnbc world headquarters in new york, there are several new and significant news for hurricane dorian. the bahamas -- what about the united states? well, perhaps on florida's atlantic coast. let's begin right there, with the breaking news on hurricane dorian. the category 4 storm now taking aim at northwestern bahamas. with life threatening storm surge and devastating winds. dozens of shelters have now been

open to take in some thousands and thousands of people as we spin around you see the latest statistics we have from dorian. you can see hurricane dorian, category 4 storm, located right now about 205 miles near the great abaco key in bahamas itself. bill? >> yeah, we're just getting in some of the new information from our computer models, we get these in randomly. the big ones we watch for, is the european model or american models, we get our spaghetti lines. this is the 11:00 advisory, we'll wait for the new one coming out at 5:00 this evening. we look at the models to get a hint if they're going to change anything. most of our models are 50 to 100 miles off the coastline. everyone here is still in the cone, and we still think that we could get a close call here on

the beaches of florida. one of the models that we watch closely is our european computer model. i put pause points in at 8:00 a.m. over the next five days to track this thing. here's where it's located earlier this morning. let's take this into 8:00 a.m. monday. we're going to skip over tomorrow, tomorrow it's still over the water. 8:00 a.m. monday. you see it right here, this is freeport here, this is why we think the northern portion of the bahamas could be in the heart of a major category for a hurricane for 36 hours. 24 to 36 hours? this is horrendous for these areas there. they have really strict building codes, but to be in a category 4 for that long, it's not good. then as we get toward tuesday morning. as far as west palm beach goes, this is as close as the storm is expected to get. if you have any bad weather, likely in the strongest -- largest waves, wind, the rain. that's when they go through

tuesday morning. the storm begins to track northward. we get into 8:00 a.m. wednesday. it stays about 50 to 75 miles off the coast. it will still have rough conditions here, tropical storm force winds at least. beach erosion, notice central florida, orlando area, kind of completely misses you, that's 8:00 a.m. wednesday, now, let's fast forward 24 hours after that, we actually begin to go northerly, then northeasterly, a very close call here for south carolina, still the center off shore, rushing the coastal areas. as we go into friday, the end of next week, it parallels the north carolina coast just off cape hatteras, this storm from tuesday morning off of west palm to friday is always within about 50 miles of the coast, we're talking about a forecast that is 3 to 5 days from now, and then the air could easily be 50 miles toward the coast or 50 more miles away from the coast if not more. that's why we still have a

chance that dorian could rake the entire half of the florida coast. and then just add insult to injury here, we don't have a chance of getting clipped out on areas of cape cod and here toward nantucket and nova scotia. this is 3:00 p.m. next weekend with the storm about 100, 200 miles off of cape cod. you get the idea here, we do this with all of our major models. this is our american gfs model, it does the same thing, stalls a little further north and moves a little further off the coastline, drags itself and stays safely off the coast of florida. but then dangerously here close to charles ston, the center of the storm maybe crossing areas of eastern north carolina. kendis, that's the in the weeds of watching the computer models. we get these -- the major ones every 12 hours. we get those, we look at them, the hurricane centers are looking at them. and then to confuse you even

more. we take these month els, we call them the operational models, we tweak them a little bit. maybe we make the high pressure system a little stronger or weaker. we come up with the american model, 26 different options off of this, with the european, 51 different options. it's a little more confusing, that's what the hurricane center is doing. >> all week long i've been hearing reports historically, that the european model has been corrected. i believe the european models had it going into the gulf of mexico, to the american one. >> two or three days. >> i look at the american model and that one is going a little more west right now. >> the american model is a little closer to the carolina coastline. this part of the forecast is still 3 to 4 days away, that's why you look at this cone of uncertainty and this is what i call the forecast error. it could be all the way to the right, it could be far to the

left, and so when it's more narrow down here, that's when we -- that's when we get the evacuation orders and everything like that issued. in this case, the european historically is better, with this storm, i wouldn't say it has been fantastic so far. >> it's really -- forecasting is not an easy business indeed. thanks, we'll check back with you in a few minutes. marianne is live in del ray beach florida for us. dorian's path is continuing to veer away from the state. but residents still preparing right now? >> especially along the northeastern part of the state, kendis. especially along the barrier islands, we know there are two counties, brevard county, and martin county, where those barrier islands are under mandatory evacuation order. here in del ray beach, this is under evacuation order. authorities keep telling us they

don't want people to become complacent. this storm has been shifting so much just in the past couple days, and it is still this area where i am now, in the cone of uncertainty. this is steve. steve, how are you preparing? >> i'm preparing, i'm listening to the weather channels, i'm basically going to the store, getting necessities, canned goods, gasoline for my car, lots of water and i'm not really worried about it. >> is it because of the changing forecast. >> it's not panic, don't panic. >> listen to the authorities, stay calm. and everything's going to be fine. >> these big dogs are beautiful to look at. what's happening in your building. >> everything is being prepared. elevators are being shut down. what i'm doing for them, just

enough water and also to make sure that i have a safe place to take them out. >> i know you just moved to florida from new jersey two weeks ago, what do you think being welcomed by this storm. >> the gods are loving me, they're going to christen me with open arms. >> that's the floridian way. thank you to abe and champ over here. we just heard from the governor of florida, multiple times today. this is a state that's still under a state of emergency. authorities want to hear that people are preparing. especially along these areas, you can see the water is right behind me there, this is precisely where you're going to get the flooding, the storm surge, even after the storm has come and gone a lot of these communities could still be at risk. kendis? >> the waves and the surf will be pretty rough for many people going there. enjoying the holiday. mariana, thanks to you there.

kathy park is in brevard county. home to places like cape canaveral and cocoa beach. >> reporter: residents have been preparing for days ahead of the storm. some as early as thursday, the businesses are boarded up behind me. they know in 2017 the experience, significant damage in the shopping center. there's an evacuation order that is in place, starting tomorrow morning around 8:00 a.m. this is a labor day holiday, there should be a lot of folks coming and going it's been relatively quiet. you've been here for 19 years -- you've had your share of hurricane experiences. how does this time around

compare. >> this is hard to say. we're playing it by ear. a couple days away, not knowing what can happen. we can help the community also. i wouldn't mind helping them out. just let them know we have to be he here. >> you are prepared to kind of get ready ahead of this storm as well. watching and waiting over the next couple hours to see what happens next? >> correct. we have to wait until tomorrow morning, maybe tomorrow afternoon the latest. and then we know if we border or not. just in case we have to, we are prepared.

we have the generator, the plywood, everything. we aren't going to wait until the last minute, we have to make sure that we have to do what we have to do. >> thank you very much. and kendis, you know, we've been up and down portions of this region, this is a scene we're seeing all around. this is a big holiday weekend as areas should be packed. this is going to be having a big dent on the bottom line, especially for businesses, hotels, just a big loss this major holiday weekend. kendis, back to you. >> many businesses were looking forward to having a successful labor day weekend there. >> kathy park in satellite beach, some parts of that area are evacuated right now. there's a lot more news to come on this busy saturday, including what the president said today about the firing of his personal assistant the. was it a veiled threat, the tweet aimed at keeping her quiet next. a live look right now from the bahamas, normally tranquil paradise now in the path of an

extremely dangerous hurricane. the weather expected to take a turn for the worst. it already has in the last hour we've been talking. we're tracking dorian, and we'll bring you the latest on the forecast coming up. st anything. even a "three-ring fender bender." (clown 1) sorry about that... (clown 2) apologies. (clown 1) ...didn't mean it. (clown 3) whoops. (stilts) sorry! (clowns) we're sorry! (scary) hey, we're sorry! [man screams] [scary screams] (burke) quite the circus. but we covered it. at farmers, we know a thing or two because we've seen a thing or two. ♪ we are farmers. bum-pa-dum, bum-bum-bum-bum ♪ you wouldn't accept from any one else. why accept it from your allergy pills? flonase relieves your worst symptoms including nasal congestion, which most pills don't. flonase helps block 6 key inflammatory substances. most pills only block one. flonase. the in-laws have moved in with us. and our adult children are here. so we save by using tide. which means we use less. three generations of clothes cleaned in one wash.

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we're back with a reminder that we're tracking the latest on hurricane dorian as it gets even stronger off the coast of the bahamas right now. the latest model shows the powerful storm turning north at

some point. but when and when it makes that turn will all depend on the impact on the united states. so we're continuing to watch that situation there. it could happen in several states in the southeast. with that monsterous storm, making its way north and west, the president today wasn't necessarily -- at least initially focused on dorian, instead he took aim at his recently fired personal assisten at madeleine westerhout, with what many see as a veiled threat, madeleine has a fully enforceable confidentiality agreement, she's a good person, i don't think there would ever be reason to use it. she called me yesterday to apologiz apologize, had a bad night. i love tiffany, doing great. westerhoff was forced out this week after she reportedly shared intimate details about the first family in an off the record conversation with members of the

media. the president's thoughts on his daughter's weight. i love tiffany, doing great. joining me right now is white house correspondent nbc's kelly o'donnell. also with me are reporter for politico. and bloomberg tv chief washington correspondent. welcome to all of you, i want to start with you, kelly, on the north lawn of the white house. the president seemingly on the defensive or also on the offensive, with his tweet aimed at his former personal secretary. >> this 1 a case where the president is obviously -- has a bit of a mess on his hands. it's never great when a white house has this kind of indiscretion made public. it's not good within the family that his daughter has been subjected to this kind of public perhaps embarrassment. i don't want to presume what she might be feeling.

the president has added that by talking about her in addition to that. and, of course, this is someone he had grown to trust and like working with, based on his public statements, and now he's got to fill that hole and has to ask the question, could this be a person who might speak about him when she is outside of government. the president has had other employees who have gone on to write books, by putting out this tweet about confidentiality agreements, this was a public employee, paid $145,000 of taxpayer money to work as the director of oval office operations and the executive assistant the to the president. enforcing that is questionable, if she even signed such ad. others who worked for the campaign certainly did. madeleine westerhout came in from the rnc when reince priebus was chief of staff, and others came in to flesh out the original team. this is certainly one of those

instances where a story develops that is another headache for the trump white house. at times they've had lots of internal conflict, palace intrigue type stories that get in the way of what they want to try to accomplish. this is another one of those instances where it has a component of being embarrassing, troublesome. this is someone the president interacted with extensively every day. she enjoyed her work, thought she did a good job, and is disappointed it ended up this way. >> by all accounts was a great gatekeeper for the president right there outside the oval office. >> mick mulvaney strongly encourage encouraged the president to fire her.

>> she had deep ties to previous iterations of the republican national committee. she also is someone who had deep ties to former -- to a previous chief of staff, reince priebus, in that regard, she had allies within the west wing and within republican circles and within previous iterations of the white house. i think more broadly now as this moves forward. it comes at a time where there is great tension to put it mildly between the media as well as top administration officials within the trump administration and to the notion that the acting chief of staff mick mulvaney would be encouraging this, it goes to show his own, perhaps, influence within side of the oval office. >> but kevin, you know washington, and you know whether there have been many firings, you hear from people saying, we're really sad to see this person go. are you hearing the same thing

right now? >> i think you heard that from president trump. >> beyond president trump? >> i think president trump is going to -- i think his own remarks within the past 24 hours are a clear illustration of where this stands. and again, i think it's been well reported about the tension that exists. i think you could make the case that there is some of that going on. >> i think you kind of sidelined that. >> kendis, i really think it comes down to, you can't talk about the president's family. and that's really what it comes down to, and she was well liked. that doesn't mean everyone liked her, but ones that were demonstrated. that's a line no one in the west wing is going to allow to be crossed. and i think it's really that simple. >> amen kelly o.

>> let's switchgears and talk about -- the president was on the defensive moments ago, talking about, you know he saw a tweet that he did with iran. moments ago, he tweeted being scolded by failed former intelligence officials like james clapper on my condolences to iran, sadly for the united states guys like him told me. don't have a clue, they really set our country back, but now we're going-forward. mel an 234e, tell me about this tweet that the president sent out yesterday. and why it's getting so much heat? >> okay, this tweet was very striking, kendis for a number of reasons. first of all, it seemed to confirm that the united states was gathering images about iran's missile site and potentially was in violation of airspace. we know that the violation of airspace is something that has contributed to the increasing tensions between washington and iran. number two, it also was a highly

classified document. it looked like it was a picture of a cell phone from the document, the president obviously has his power and the right to dispel classified information, and to declassify it, it's really unusual to see the united states sharing that type of intelligence gathering information, because you don't want your adversaries to know how you're spying on them, right? >> number three, i think the other reason why this is raising a lot of eyebrows in washington, it was really unclear what the intent of the message and the tweet was. was he taunting iran, trying to force them back to the negotiating table. we know last week, francis mack roan was trying to broker talks between iran and israel was trying to pressure trump not to engage in talks. the relationship with iran has been intense to say the least. >> this was an amazing tweet.

many are puzzled by trump's decision to tweet out this photo. has anyone at the white house made heads or tails of this decision? let's start with you, kevin. >> there's been a public debate surrounding this. sources at the state department reiterate the president is able to tweet this out. it comes at a time where over the next few weeks, there's going to be an intense focus on u.s. and iranian nations, most notably at the united nations general assembly coming up. emmanuel mack roan has indicated he would like to potentially see a meeting between iranian president and president trump. it's anyone's guess if that's going to happen. >> do you think it's going to happen at this point, kelly? >> it's hard to say. there's movement toward wanting to have a positive development. the real question, was the president intending to make things better or did he actually

by tweeting this make it harder to make that happen? >> it did start a conversation. kelly o'donnell thanks to you, melanie and kevin, thank you as well. the violent clashes overseas, police and protesters squaring off. we bring you the latest on this crackdown that's taking place in hong kong. and into the storm, i'll talk with a hurricane hunter and flight director. the pilots and crews who get all that data from the dangerous storms, what they're seeing from dorian and how it compares to others. ♪

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we are covering dorian. this is a live picture from florida right now. ft. lauderdale is located in this area, just north of miami. it looks like a decent holiday beach weekend. higher surf, though, as you can tell there. don't let the forecast fool you.

there are dangerous conditions you can keep an eye out on. because it's still a category four storm. >> let's take a look at the headlines we're following. thousands of protesters and police in hong kong today. authorities began firing tear gas and used water cannons that were filled with blue die. this is the first time we've seen that sort of method. also, they can mark protesters for arrest at a later point. this marks the 13th weekend in a row that thousands of pro-democracy leaders have taken to the streets. it was an ugly scene this morning. the friday night lights in mobile alabama included plenty of police flashing lights. 10 teenagers were shot, their injuries not fatal. police have arrested a 17-year-old. jose ines osaute.

he's accused of defending the man who killed kate steinle the case drew national tension becoming a regular talking point for the president. and the candidate at the time, donald trump. making an appearance at the library of congress today. in the wake of recent health concerns. her job is what is keeping her going. >> i love my job. it's the best job i've ever had. and it has kept me going through four cancer bouts. >> rbg still going strong at 86. now back to the breaking news story and the coverage of hurricane dorian.

the storm's defined eye wall. the stadium effect as it's called. right there in the center, visible from space sustained winds we're told. hundreds have been on guard and preparing for the storm today people in georgia and the carolinas are now on notice. he's been tracking the storm for days. >> we're so close to this being a huge deal. at the same time it wasn't that bad. a difference of 50 to 100 miles is going to be huge and enormous until the impacts go. we're having 50 to 100 mile an hour winds. we have a chance of getting up to a category 5 this evening. i want to show you this bright red band. the higher the clouds go, the colder they typically are, this

bright red band shows an extremely cold cloud top wrapping around the center. that shows you the storm is strengthening. that's pretty incredible stuff. it wouldn't surprise me at all. this was the path from 11:00 a.m. we're going to get the new path from the hurricane center. everything i've seen says it will remain close to what it is, or inching back a little toward the coastal areas here. our push offshore has ended with a lot of our computer runs. >> i want to show you these red lines. we have our operational model which is offshore. we change it just a little bit. we don't know all the atmosphere we can't measure all of it. we tweak it a little there. high pressure, things like that a little different. we run the model all over again on our super computers. that's what all these red lines

are you notice three of the 21. the majority of them are off the coast a few are well off the coast. as we go throughout time, we continue this through the five-day period. some of them come right across the wilmington area or right through the southern portions of the outer banks. there's still fish path as we move off the coast. that's why the messaging is going to be from west palm beach northwards up the florida coast let's hope it doesn't. as far as the tropical storm force winds, a chance even offshore we're going to get storm force winds along the coast. we're going to increase these odds too. the rainfall part. the eastern morgs and northern portion of the storm. if if we get that on shore path,

it will be on the dry side. maybe rain in areas of eastern carolina. people still shaking their heads with what happened with florence a couple years ago. if there's one location you do not want to be, it would be in the bahamas. could be a category 4 or 5? it could stall for 36 hours. it will go monday night and all day monday and tuesday. this area of yellow is the tropical storm force wind field. red is the hurricane wind. we have a ways to go before anywhere in the bahamas begins to feel any of those effects. >> let you know what i'm looking at. all indications the offshore trend has stopped. it's kind of status quo right now.

>> let's go now to the national hurricane center in miami, florida. the director is with me right now. we saw the track right there from what was pointing out -- he says that -- it's a possibility this storm could go west. why has this one been so difficult to forecast so far? >> this one from the beginning has been a game of inches remember the beginnings, the center jumping around, we have a powerful hurricane. so it's been a tricky system from the beginning. a lot of it has to do with the steering. it's thousands of miles away. the original system. the whole thing became slower, now we're depending on a weakness up there to the great lakes to pull it to the north. when will it turn. devastating for the bahamas, that's when we're forecasting

this slowdown. >> as you take a look at the conditions right now, it appears as if there's any possibility out there, anything to take away the strength of this storm. >> not really. we got that warm water, we think if anything it's healthy. think about it, that type of major hurricane over an area for 36 hours, that's pounding major hurricane force winds. that's a rainfall that's 10 foot of storm surge. it's just an incredible dangerous situation. it looks like it stays strong. >> you really look at the onset of the tropical storm force winds about 100 miles from the center. even monday morning, you get the real brunt of it. you start feeling those effects,

sunday, tomorrow, you start seeing the tropical storm force winds, this is the morning on monday, this is monday evening. this is monday and tuesday, look how long they're going to have to deal with these winds. the flash flooding is going to be a significant threat. >> for many of us on the east coast and many of those there in florida, we believe it will turn north, as we take a look right now as we track dorian, it's still going west at 8 miles an hour, at what point should we or floridians say, it's not as if we're making that turn north. >> exactly. we're going to be watching it so closely, having those conversations too, at some point once it feels that weakness, it's going to slow down. like a ship trying to turn. it's so much momentum. whenever it starts to slow down.

think about the cone, still over florida, two thirds of the time we can see the center in that cone. a little bit of a movement off to the south you can see the center closer to the coastline. >> has it gone through its eye wall replacement and weaken or no? >> we've seen it, we are trying to get the doppler radar. you start seeing some signs of it and it goes away. a lot of times that could indicate not only the intensity, but the size of the storm. we do expect the wind field to expand. >> it's a tight storm as far as monster storms go, it is expected to widen as far as the wind field. thanks for joining us for the latest. still ahead right here, new tariffs on chinese goods go into effect at midnight. this round could have a bigger

impact on women. we'll explain why. >> here's a live look from the bahamas, the island of abaco, it looks fairly calm right now. whether or not that camera shot is still moving 24 hours from now, this right here is expected to be within the crosshairs of a category 4, category 5 storm with winds of 150 milesage hour. just imagine what it's like to live there now. creating the future. so, every day, we put our latest technology and unrivaled network to work. the united states postal service makes more e-commerce deliveries to homes than anyone else in the country.

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♪ introducing a razor that works differently. the gillette skinguard. designed with a guard between the blades that helps protect skin. it guards against razor burn on the neck and irritation on the face. get the shave you've been waiting for. gillette skinguard. welcome back, take a look at this. the astronauts on board the international space station giving us a view on dorian. we have no idea exactly where -- or if it will make a direct hit. do stay -- pay attention over the next few days. keep it here on msnbc.

in the meantime, we're keeping an eye on something big. it could potentially happen tonight. president trump's latest round of tariffs on chinese imports are set to go into effect at midnight. the government will start collecting a 50% tariff on $112 billion of chinese goods. who's going to pay for it? >> not mexico, but you and me probably. >> items such as shoes, smart watches, diapers, dairy products, clothing, tv's, i could go on and on and on. all of those will be taxed. last hour, president trump in the meantime, tweeted democrats want to give up on a successful trade data with china. we are taking in billions. joining me now, senior adviser to schroeders, thank you so much for being with us. i said it potentially could be big that this is going to go

into effect. it is 3:00 p.m., nearly 4:00 p.m. right now. is the president going to blink again. >> if he doesn't, they go in effect. it will have an impact on consumers, the saving grace is, since we're approaching labor day, there are a lot of labor day sales over the weekend. auto dealerships around the country. there may be an offset to it, it's a second round of tariffs. the other tariffs that have been put on already are going to go to 30% on october 1st. >> how significant would you say this. how significant is this particular one? >> the estimate is the cumulative impact on the american family will be $1,000 a year. >> isn't that about what we got supposedly in the tax cut twice? >> it negates the impact of the tax cut for the average american family. >> it's about -- it completely

negates? >> yeah, and puts 400 in the hole. >> it's almost like a tax increase if. >> it is. >> now, that assumes also the retailers and others in fact let the tariffs go through as a retail price increase, we'll have to wait and see on that, they're spreading some of the costs out over multiple products. >> all right, i'm curious about this, as i mentioned, it is going to impact a number of different goods. >> how is this having more of an impact on women as opposed to men. >> the apparel component, they may see an increase in the price of shoes, the price of jeans or whatever else is made in china at this point in time. the whole apparel industry has left the united states from a textile perspective over the last 30 years, we've only had a few companies come back, it's a different business. much more computerized. much less labor here than anyone

else. >> who are these taxes and tariffs hurting the most in. >> china's reeling already from the impact of reduced trade with the united states. but we also see the rest of the world, there are nine major economies who are at or in recession, i should say in recession. germany being one of them. weaker chinese economy is not helpful to the global economy. and the weaker china gets, the more likely it is for the u.s. to slip toward recession or growth recession for a meaningful slowdown. ian bremmer, who's a political analyst suggested that the only thing worse than the united states is a very weak china. we're the two biggest economies in the world. if one weakens, the other feels it. >> all of this started, it was all over intellectual property. >> there are legitimate and significant claims that the u.s. has against china with respect to the way they do business on the world stage. intellectual property theft. they have state subsidies that

favor some country owned businesses that put our countries at a disadvantage, the claims are legitimate. i think the approach is that there would have been other and better ways to approach china also with our allies at the world trade organization. if we wanted to ice like them. do that with the entire western world. >> the president has a unilateral strategy. >> and all of his advisers have been preaching this economic nationalism for a long time. it's clearly not going to be advantageous for the u.s. to do this on every topic we encounter. >> midnight tonight these tariffs go into effect. unless there's a miraculous tweet. this week ahead is a critical week. the jobs report that comes out on friday are there other factors that we need to look forward to -- >> you were talking about hong kong and those protests can

affect the negotiations between the united states and china on trade. the jobs number will be very important. any comments on the direction of interest rate policy, you still have the risk of boris johnson pushing through a no deal brexit. >> it's pretty much -- >> protesting -- >> yeah, yeah. closing parliament for all intents and purposes for the first time since charles i. it cost him his head. he made that decision later on. look, it's going to be an important week, we're starting the month of september. a lot of volatility. some of the tariffs will not be put in place until september 15th. >> you cover this for a long time. who's going to blink first? >> i don't know that any blinking is going to go on for a while.

if the president blinks his base will be upset because he didn't follow through on his tough talk. if china blinks, they lose face. that's problematic for him as well. i don't know not good for him a. everybody is feeling pain, could force people back to the bargaining table. mnuchin says we're 90% there, it is 10% that's meaning. intellectual property and forced property transfer. intractable issues we faced before are still the ones we have not gained ground on. >> been a long trade war, going on 18 months. appreciate you being here. >> thanks for having me. appreciate it. >> enjoy the rest of your weekend. still ahead. people in four states preparing for hurricane dorian at this hour. people there have been going through this for generations. next, we look at florida's history in so-called hurricane alley. -their béarnaise sauce here is the best in town.

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welcome back. hurricane dorian is still days away from possibly making landfall somewhere along the east coast of the united states. it will hit the bahamas later

tonight and into tomorrow. take a look at florida's history of deadly destructive storms. you have hurricane irma in 2017 which was a category 4 storm. before that, this was hurricane michael. a lot of people are still recovering from. that was a category five storm. estimated winds 160 miles per hour. at least 74 were killed. in irma, 92 were killed. they caused a lot of damage, caused a lot of floridians to evacuate. then hurricane andrew in 1992. category five storm with winds of 165 miles per hour, blamed for 65 deaths, left widespread destruction. half the storms in the u.s. were right there in florida. you see the list.

katrina. estimated 18 billion to 20 billion in damages and economic impact. the forecast path for hurricane dorian now is shifting dramatically. it may spare florida a direct hit. but that could put parts of georgia and carolinas in the path. we'll get the latest from bill karins at the top of the hour. i don't keep track of regrets.

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thanks for watching this hour of msnbc live. i'll be back tomorrow at 2:00 p.m. eastern time. stay safe out there. the news continues with my colleague richard lui. >> thanks for being with us. we're watching hurricane dorian this hour. it is now a monster category 4 storm, now whirling with maximum sustained winds of 150 miles per hour. it's just seven miles short, an hour of cresting at the highest rating, category five. northwest bound, dorian heads toward the bahamas. they warn resident of 15 foot storm surge and imminent danger. >> i beg and plead with you to leave the keys and move to the main