the florida trend today was fantastic for miami and the tampa/ft. myers/naples area. still, jupiter, the melbourne area, space coast through flagler county, volusia county, we have to closely watch those areas. the hurricane center has it as a category 2 up towards georgia and south carolina, lawrence. so we're not done with this yet by far. it's going to be a nervous weekend. we'll still have mass evacuations. we have to prepare for the worst but we still hope this trend offshore continues. >> we'll be watching. bill karins, thank you very much, appreciate it. that is tonight's "last word." "the 11th hour" with brian williams starts now. tonight, a new update posting this very minute on the path of hurricane dorian, as residents in the bahamas and florida go into emergency mode. could georgia and the carolinas be next? we have everything you need to know about what's happening now and what's coming next as this

category 4 hurricane churns offshore. plus the president posts a classified satellite photo on twitter to taunt iran while a new round of tariffs on china is set to hit this weekend. one of the president's vaunted generals gets ready to speak out. "the 11th hour" on a friday night starts right now. good evening once again from our nbc news headquarters here in new york. i'm steve kornacki in for brian williams who has the night off. day 953 of the trump administration, and the president is at camp david tonight as hurricane dorian takes aim at the florida coast. the national hurricane center said today the now category 4 hurricane poses a significant threat to the northwestern bahamas and to florida. earlier today, before departing for camp david, president trump addressed the approaching storm. >> the hurricane is roaring in, it could be a big one.

we're hoping it maybe makes a right and goes up north. but that's about a 5% chance. it's not looking good. and it's one of the biggest hurricanes we've seen in a long time. >> we will bring you a full forecast on hurricane dorian in just a moment. but first, we are also following news out of the white house on a number of fronts this evening. earlier today the president tweeted about a failed rocket launch in iran along with an image of the launch site. quote, the united states of america was not involved in the catastrophic accident during final launch preparations for the launch in iran. i wish iran best wishes in determining what happened. the photo, according to outside experts, would only be available to a government source, so it was classified. earlier today the president was asked about his tweet. >> reporter: did you release classified information by tweeting that photo about iran?

>> no. i just wish iran well. they had a big problem. and we had a photo. and i released it which i have the absolute right to do. >> reporter: where did it come from? >> you'll see what happens. you'll have to figure that one out for yourself. we'll see what happens. they had a big mishap. it's unfortunate. so iran, as you probably know, they were going to set off a big missile and it didn't work out too well. it had nothing to do with us. >> we also have a new report from "the washington post" that says president trump's national security adviser john bolton has been sidelined from afghanistan policy. quote, his opposition to the diplomatic effort in afghanistan has irritated president trump and led aides to leave the national security council out of sensitive discussions about the agreement. this as general mattis will appear on cbs this weekend. in an interview he said, quote,

i will not speak ill of a sitting president. i'm not going to do it. he's an unusual president, our president is. especially with the rabid nature of politics today, we've got to be careful, we could tear this country apart. meanwhile, a senior administration official tells nbc news the white house is putting a $250 million aid package to ukraine under review. this is money that's meant to help ukraine confront the threat of russian aggression. the official confirms the president has been consulting with his national security team about the money and that president trump has concerns about how much allies are contributing to the assistance fund. as you might imagine, a number of lawmakers are not happy with this news. senator chris murphy, democrat from connecticut, released a statement that said, quote, there have also been reports of rudy giuliani acting as a representative of the president, personally asking the ukrainians to investigate president trump's opponents, namely joe biden.

hoip i hope the suspension of military aid -- earlier today, hallie jackson spoke to senator bob menendez, democrat from new jersey, about the news. >> there is no good policy reason. this isn't about money, we gave a record amount of money to the administration in this past deal. so either the president is somehow compromised, is either spineless as it relates to standing up to putin, or he's infatuated with putin. authoritarian figure. >> we are following the trade news on china. >> the president has now delayed tariffs on some chinese goods. starting sunday the u.s. will start collecting a 15% tariff on $112 billion of chinese imports. the president said that calls to china are being made. he also said this.

>> the tariffs have put us in an incredible negotiating position. i say that to china directly. it's only going to get worse for china. >> and we are going to talk about all of this in just a moment with top white house reporters who are standing by. but first, right now, just past 11:00 p.m. on the east coast, that means a new update on hurricane dorian. for the latest we're joined by ed rappaport, deputy director of the national hurricane center. ed, we're thrilled to have you with us. tell us the latest about what you know. >> quite a few changes with dorian. in the last several hours, the intensification trend during much of the day has continued. so now we have a category 4 hurricane. maximum winds have increased to 140 miles per hour from just about 100 miles per hour 24 hours ago. so quite an intensification. and we also know that the storm has changed a bit in direction, as forecast, from northwest to west-northwest.

now we expect it to move towards the west, take a run at the florida east coast over the next 24 to 36 hours and potentially bring a devastating landfall to the florida peninsula. later on sunday or monday. >> do you have an estimate on the path at the coast? >> yes, we have it coming up the coast. even if it turns away. for south florida. you can see the center turning just before it gets to the coast. if that were to occur, that would be better news. but we still have close to a 100% chance of tropical storm conditions over south florida. it's still 50/50 for hurricane conditions as well. the problem, though, is we could be off just a little bit in the forecast. if the center comes a little farther to the west before it makes that turn to the north, that brings the landfall right into south florida.

so everybody in the florida peninsula we're urging to prepare for the eventuality, at least the possibility of a major landfalling hurricane. >> everybody is watching as the storm slowly makes its way there. ed rappaport, thank you very much. here for the lead off discussion on a friday night. peter baker, chief white house correspondent for "the new york sometimes." jill colvin and tessa berenson. the president at camp david now. tessa, it seems the white house has a certain image it is hoping the president can project here as the storm makes its way potentially to florida. will the president go along with that? >> the storm hasn't even made landfall in florida yet and you're already seeing the push and pull between the president's instincts and the administration wanting to avoid a response

to a hurricane similar to the response to the hurricane in puerto rico which was so heavily criticized. cancelling the trump to poland. he brought an adviser to camp david to give him updates on the storm, he tweeted out a video pledging support. but in his more unscripted moments on twitter, for example, you've seen him go back to his political fight with leadership in puerto rico and pick some of those old political fights. so you're already seeing the tension and the storm hasn't even arrived in the mainland yet. it remains to be seen whether president trump will be a unifier in the case of a natural disaster or if it will be another moment of projecting empathy as he's struggled with in the past. >> president trump has holed up at camp david, very active on twitter, very active in talking to the press on a number of subjects. one of the subjects that came up when he was talking to reporters

was the tariffs he's imposed as part of the trade war with china. increasingly, complaints from corporate america, from business leaders about the effect they say those tariffs are having. the president addressed that criticism. take a listen. >> a lot of badly-run companies are trying to blame tariffs. in other words, if they're running badly and they're having a bad quarter or they're just unlucky in some way, they're likely to blame the tariffs. it's not the tariffs. it's called bad management. >> peter, you have a new piece up tonight looking at the president's strategy on the trade war, on the economy. what do you make of what he just said there in that clip? >> look, what the president needs to do is find somebody to blame if the economy turns south. you've heard him do this again and again in recent days, particularly about jay powell, federal reserve chairman, who he himself appointed. just last friday he called jay powell an enemy. he attacked him again on twitter

today. he's attacked democrats. he's attacked the news media for cheerleading for a recession. in effect, he's trying to say if things go bad, it isn't because of anything i did, it's because these other people are out to get america or me or the economy or whatever. and he's added now american businesses to the list. these are the people of course who he's courting the cost when it comes to his deregulatory and lower tax agenda. he says when it comes to tariffs, they're off the reservation and they're wrong and blaming him for their mismanagement. >> jill, there was some reporting that made clear the president as he looks towards his reelection campaign in 2020 is mindful of that wall he promised in 2016, showing tangible progress towards some kind of completion there before election day 2020. but it's interesting on this topic of the economy, you say you have been hearing from some folks around the white house that this behind the scenes, the state of the economy, is increasingly what worries them and the president. >> both these things are at play, the president is looking

back to the last 2 1/2 years, looking at his accomplishments and the way he'll be able to package that and sell that when he hits the road next year in earnest as the campaign heats up. one of his promises was obviously the wall. at this point no new miles of wall have been constructed. the administration is obviously hoping to be able to change that soon by the end of the year and going into next year. but the number one issue right now on the president's mind is the economy. look, the argument that the white house has been making now, and the campaign has been making for several months, is the argument we can make to voters is even if you don't likely the president's tweets, even if you don't like the way he comports himself, look at your pocketbook and how the economy is doing. and as we see these worrying signs of potential recession or at least potential economic slowdown, the president is growing increasingly panicked. we have heard a number of different options. he says one day he supports an idea, the next day he doesn't

like the idea. you see that spilling out of the discussion that's happening behind the scenes as they try to figure out mechanisms to try to help. >> the president, again, with those comments about what he says are badly run companies, blaming tariffs, those obviously raised some eyebrows today. but so did that tweet we mentioned in the introduction, that tweet of what apparently was classified material about iran. tessa, two questions here. number one, i say classified, if i understand this correctly, once the president does it, does something like this, he has in effect unilaterally declassified it. he's, in other words, able to do this. if you can explain that just in terms of from a legal standpoint, can he do that, when we say classified material. but also the question of why. >> right. so the president today said he had, quote, the absolute right to release that photo, and that is essentially true. the president has the legal authority to declassify information related to national security concerns. there is a supreme court case in 1988 which said that that

largely -- it's a constitutional authority, it comes from the constitution and separation of powers. and it is also governed by executive orders. the latest of which was signed by president trump obama in 2009. so even if that image had been classified, president trump could declassify it. now, that doesn't mean that there wouldn't be strategic concerns or whether it would be alarming if he didn't consult the intelligence community before doing so. there could be plenty of questions about why he made that decision. there just likely wouldn't be legal questions or legal concerns about that. >> peter, from a strategic standpoint, what might -- is there any sense what might be accomplished in terms of the u.s. and iran and that relationship by tweeting that out? >> it's a good question. in fact the nature of the tweet, not just the picture itself but the words he used, are a little ambiguous and can be read in a couple of different ways. he seemed in one version to be basically taunting them, saying we had nothing to do with it, sorry, wish you good luck as you try to figure out what happened,

is that a taunt, is that trying to basically, you know, jab them? or is he in fact actually trying to say, look, we had nothing to do with it, don't blame us, because he actually is interested in having some sort of talks in the coming weeks. last week i was with him at the g7 where emmanuel macron, the french president, was trying to arrange for him to meet with president rouhani of iran sometime in the next few weeks, that could potentially be at the u.n. general assembly coming up in september. both sides are maneuvering and saying, maybe not, only these conditions will apply. but if the president is really interested in doing that, does this episode change that dynamic, is he trying to preserve the possibility with the tweet or is he doing the opposite, is he in fact trying to goad the iranians and taunt them for another failure that in fact may or may not have had anything to do with the united states? >> peter, tessa, and jill are all staying with us. coming up, the ouster of a white house insider. later, bill karins will give us the latest on the direction of hurricane dorian, another new

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last night "the new york times" first reported that president trump's executive assistant abruptly resigned after coming under scrutiny for sharing intimate details about the president's family with reporters. and tonight, we are getting some more details about what happened. katy rogers, annie karni and mayby haberman from "the new york times" report, at an off the record dinner and several

rounds of drinks with reporters several weeks ago, madeleine westerhaut shared personal details about the president and his family. ms westerhaut attended the dinner with hogan gidley, a white house spokesman. after he left, she began to tell reporters about mr. trump's eating habits, his songest son baron, and the weight and appearance of his daughter tiffany trump. according to to a group of officials who were told what happened. this evening the president was asked about the departure of his assistant. >> reporter: did you fire madeleine westerhaut? >> i think it was automatic. i don't say fire or not fire. and i really think she had a bad night. i think it was unfortunate. she said she was drinking. the whole thing was very unfortunate. and i think the press is very dishonest because it was supposed to be off the record. but still, you don't say things like she said, which were just a

little bit hurtful to some people. >> reporter: she talked about you not wanting to be with tiffany, is that true? >> no, tiffany is great, i love tiffany. >> back with us, peter baker, jill colvin, and tessa berenson. peter, this story caused quite a bit of confusion and questions being asked. now some of the blanks are being filled in. what more can you tell us about what's going on and what led to this? >> look, nobody in this white house or few people in this white house spent as much time close to the president physically every day as madeleine westerhaut. she had an office just outside of the oval office. she was a gatekeeper for the president. if you wanted to have a chance to talk to him, she was a good person to know in the west wing. and so for her to suddenly be on the outs was shocking to a lot of people. she had been seen as one of the people in his inner circle. mind you, she had previously

worked for other republicans. she was not originally a trump supporter in the primaries. but she had works her way into his level of trust. so when he heard about these comments, apparently she had made at this dinner, obviously, you know, pushed over a line that he was willing to tolerate. he says, as he always does, he blames the media. nobody in the media reported on these, that i saw. this got around the white house because they were pretty surprising things for somebody to say, even in a private setting. >> jill, it was interesting too, some of the reporting out there suggests maybe the president was reluctant to see her go despite this, you heard in those comments there, he said she had a bad night i think was the comment we just played. how close were they? >> i mean, she was a key figure in the white house. the president doesn't have a lot of people around him who have been there since the beginning, and she was there from the first day of the administration. she saw so much of what happened in the oval office. she saw his comings and goings, she knew who he was speaking on the telephone.

those people who are close to him, who know all of these details, this potentially incriminating information about him and his life and his family's life, he tends to keep pretty close, he doesn't let many people that close into his inner circle. so the fact that he let her go so quickly, the white house line is that she resigned, the president has had a pattern, even when he's had, especially cabinet secretaries, other aides who he has fought with mercilessly, sometimes the president can keep people around who he has screaming matches with in the oval office, who embarrass him publicly. who break the law, who have ethical concerns, sometimes it takes the president weeks, months, even years to actually let those people go. but here you saw how quickly both parties moved to sever this relationship, in what seems to be a painful episode for the white house. >> and tessa, this is interesting too, when you think of all the folks in the white house or who have been in the

white house, how so many of them have emerged as major characters, what they say publicly and what is said about them, spills out into reporting. madeleine westerhaut, this is a figure who 24 hours ago was pretty much anonymous to all americans. >> right, and i think the context is also interesting here because of what jill just alluded to, which is that madeleine had been in the white house since the very first days of the administration, in january 2017. and this is an administration and a white house that has been characterized by pretty remarkable turnover. the fact that she had been there since the very beginning and was so close to president trump i think makes her departure all the more shocking and probably all the more poignant for president trump, who seemed to allude to that himself today, when he said how unfortunate it was that she had to go. but she did really cross a red line, he seemed to say, talking about his family, when he said her departure had to be, quote, automatic. >> tessa berenson, jill colvin, peter baker, thank you for being with us, i appreciate it.

coming up, people in florida are getting ready for pummelling. we'll have the latest forecast when "the 11th hour" continues.

as we mentioned earlier in the broadcast, hurricane dorian has been upgraded to a potentially catastrophic category 4 hurricane. and tonight the national hurricane center is warning of a possible life-threatening storm surge and, quote, devastating hurricane-force winds along

portions of florida's east coast. but the questions tonight remain. where it's going and when will it make landfall. will it make landfall. tonight our meteorologist bill karins, bill, that does seem to be a major question. whatdown mow -- what do you know now? >> excellent job throwing that in at the end, yeah. we mentioned it yesterday, this looked like it was going to head for florida. slight chance maybe it wouldn't. now that's increased. now we're 50-50, flip a coin, will this actually make landfall in florida or not. the trend has been away from that scenario, which is fantastic. but we still have to prepare for the worst just in case. people are still going to have to do evacuations this weekend. we still have to put up storm shutters and all the stuff because we could come back in 24 hours and tell you the trend has been more towards landfall instead of offshore. let me just give you the latest. this is amazing imagery from our satellites. every one minute we get these pictures in, we put them in a loop for you. this is the zoomed-in close-up eye, it shows the rapid intensification over the last several hours. we knew there was an excellent chance it would be a category 4, and it is.

it looks like a beast of a storm. the key is, it's 550 miles away from florida right now. we don't mind if it's a big huge storm over the open waters. we would like it to weaken from here on out because it's going to get very close to the northern portions of the bahamas, especially freeport area. looks like nassau will be further south, just a glancing blow. for the northern islands, sunday night through monday morning and monday during the day, there's a chance it could stall here for maybe 24 to 36 hours. we talk about a major hurricane stalling over the top of a small island, imagine what that's going to be like in your shelters or in your bathrooms, trying to go through that. so our thoughts are with the people in northern bahamas. the cone has shifted about at least half of it is now offshore. but the other half is still over central florida so we could easily see direct impact. we could possibly have a major hurricane landfall come tuesday on the central florida coast. some of our computers do show that.

one of our more reliable ones, this yellow one, still has it coming onshore. a couple of other ones do. noticeable, other ones are offshore. that's why i said it's the flip of a coin right now, will we ever get the direct impact. if we still get a category 3 storm just off the coast, we're still going to have incredible wave action, numerous high tied cycles with beach erosion, that sort of thing. but we wouldn't get the catastrophic storm surge. and wind damage. from a land fall storm. we'll get a new update on this in four hours. this is our european model. this is the one that first stalled it off the coast and paralleled the coast, then even parallels the south carolina coast. this is now thursday morning, and then not exiting towards cape hatteras until during the day friday. that's seven days from now. so yes, a long ways to go with this. then our american computer model, this one came in this afternoon. this is now beginning to update. and this does bring it very close to areas right around brevard county, palm bay area.

then right up along the coastal areas, brushing charleston, brushing myrtle beach and wilmington, maybe a category 1, category 2, then exiting thursday into friday. so steve, you kind of get the picture here. just because we may not have the possibility as high tonight as yesterday of a category 4 slamming into florida, there are still multiple facets of the storm that could cause a lot of problems, all the way up through the carolinas. so what's better for, say, miami, tampa, ft. myers, naples, has not been as good news for our friends in georgia, south carolina coastal areas. >> there are a lot of variables here. let me ask you this, last night at this time you were here and it looked grim. >> oh, yes. >> i was asking then, i said, could this even get worse than you're describing. this have changed for the positive in 24 hours. could it get even better in the next 24? >> it easily could exist further off the coast. that would be great.

then maybe, you know, then maybe we could avoid evacuating as many people as we likely have to do now. the good news last night was that three days out, it was the worst possible case scenario. so it wasn't going to get much worse than that. then we've trended in a better direction. this is another graphic that's kind of a little fun here. so the european computer models are the most reliable long term model. just to show you, the last four runs of it, this is for 8:00 a.m. tuesday, coming up three or four days from now, wednesday night it was here, thursday morning it was central florida. thursday night it was down south. last night when we were on air i was like, this is going to be horrible, highly populated areas, category 4. west palm beach and jupiter. now the latest, delayed offshore towards northern bahamas. the consistency is not here. we would like it to get a little more consistent. if we can continue this trend off the coast, hopefully during the day tomorrow when i'm here, we'll have more good news.

as i said, it doesn't matter, we can't take the risk of not preparing in case we do get that category 4. we're talking 50 to 100 miles, which is really nothing over a three-day forecast. that's why we're going to have to get those evacuations. brevard county is already telling people to get out of the way just in case. sunday morning. that upsets people, it makes people angry. some people will refuse to evacuate. that gets into the whole psychology issue of evacuations. but preparing for the worst is always the best idea. >> the reason at least we hope tonight, at least more than last night, we'll take that for now. bill karins, thank you for the update, we appreciate that. coming up, almost two decades after the attacks of september 11th, a critical date in the investigation is finally set. "the 11th hour" is back after this.

for the first time, the man

believed to have led the planning of the 9/11 attacks has a trial dade. khalid shake mohammed and four others are scheduled to go on trial in 2021. january 11. mohammed is being held at guantanamo bay. he and his alleged co-conspirators are facing 2,976 counts of murder, one for each person killed on september 11th, and the possibility of the death penalty. they were officially charged in 2008, but the trial has faced more than a decade of delays. here with more, josh gerstein, senior affairs editor for politico. josh, this has been a long time coming, which is an understatement. first take us through why it took so long to get to the point where only now is a trial being scheduled. >> it kind of lingered through a couple of administrations. the bush administration was initially not really interested in having trials for these individuals. it was more interested in

interrogation and trying to get intelligence out of them. we obviously know about the so-called torture programs and so forth that were used to try to extract information from these al qaeda operatives. there was then a move towards military commissions. and then when the obama administration came in, i remember going to a meeting at the white house with 9/11 families where they were told there was going to be a shift to another form of military commissions in order to bring swift and certain justice. that was in 2009. so that is fully ten years ago, and we're talking about maybe having a trial in another year and a half, two years from now. under the obama administration it also kind of languished. they considered bringing these people to the united states for trials in civilian courts, then pushed back from capitol hill, that never happened. the whole military commission process really became kind of a stepchild or a zombie, whatever metaphor you want to use here, it just kind of marched on with

all of the problems and no real accountability to keep it moving. >> i hear you say maybe having a trial a year and a half from now. given that history you're describing here, what are the odds that there actually is a trial? >> well, you know, there have been several efforts to try to reach essentially a plea bargain in this case. because of what i mentioned at the outset about the aggressive interrogation techniques that were used on these five defendants, there are real questions about whether the death penalty really can be imposed after those sorts of techniques have been used, what role that will play in the trial, what is the cia and what are other agencies willing to discuss about those interrogations, what might come out in a trial. and the system really hasn't grappled with those yet, either in terms of what penalties will be available or how that will be dealt with at the trial. i just think there are a lot of incentives here that really come together to suggest that the notion of having a trial 20 years after the fact for the 9/11 attacks, it may just be a

little bit fanciful at this point. >> any idea, if they did go forward with it, what it would even look like? >> well, it would be done, we've had these military commissions, not many of them, a few down there, it would be at guantanamo bay, we believe, it would be a military jury, a jury of military personnel and a military judge. there wouldn't be tv coverage, although people that wanted to see it in the u.s. could go see a closed circuit feed i think at ft. mead in maryland. there would be viewings for victims of the 9/11 attacks and families of the deceased. some of them do go down regularly for hearings at guantanamo, so that could be the focal point of a trial. but it could go on for months and months. >> quickly, i want to go to one legal issue you've been following, that is the pending sentencing for michael flynn, developments there today, prosecutors indicating they're ready to move forward with sentencing and flynn's legal

team putting up one whale of a fight. what's happened there? >> flynn shifted lawyers a couple of months ago. he had sort of a white collar defense attorney in washington, very well-respected, well-known, who negotiated this pretty good plea deal for him to plead guilty to a single false statement felony charge in the mueller investigation. he dropped that lawyer and shifted to a new sort of more combative attorney by the name of sidney powell, a long time critic not just of the mueller operation but of the entire sort of federal prosecutorial system, and she is now putting up a real fight, not just trying to withdraw the guilty plea but asking for lots of information that the prosecution never turned over, making all kinds of very broad requests about any criticism anyone might have ever had about the way the mueller investigation was done. she wants to make that all part of the sentencing. it's not clear whether that's entirely aimed at the judge that

will handle the sentencing or perhaps creating sort of a public stir that president trump might pay attention to, and might advance flynn's case for pardon. that would of course mean that he would escape any punishment at all. >> all right, josh gerstein, terrific information, appreciate you taking a few minutes tonight. >> okay, steve, happy to do it. coming up, more on hurricanes and how political leaders handle them, when "the 11th hour" continues.

i did speak with the president on wednesday night, and the administration has been great, and they've assured us they're going to provide all the resources we need. >> florida governor ron desantis sounding confident about the federal government's storm readiness. just this week the trump administration diverted $271 million from fema in disaster recovery to border enforcement. hurricane dorian is also poised to strike as two key trump administration positions remain

without permanent leaders, the fema administrator and homeland security secretary are both acting. both departments are critical in managing natural disasters. the president was asked about this on the south lawn this evening. >> reporter: are you concerned that there is no permanent fema administrator? >> no, i like the word "acting." i think "acting" is great. as far as i'm concerned, "acting" to me is good. and if i like the people, i make 'em permanent. >> here tonight, jonathan allen, nbc news national political reporter, and david jolly, a former republican member of congress from florida who has since left the republican party. thanks to both of you. jonathan allen, we played that clip of the president saying he likes this idea of acting administrators, acting cabinet secretaries. we've heard him talk to way before. when it comes specifically to this storm and the potential for disaster there in florida, having an acting fema

administrator, having an acting homeland security secretary, how significant is that? >> i think we're going to have to judge that afterwards, steve. i mean, the truth is, generally speaking, the people at the heads of those agencies are confirmed by the senate for a reason. there is a standard that we've used in this country for a long time in terms of having people in leadership roles that are permanent or relatively permanent in an administration in part because they are a liaison to the white house, they are somebody who has been confirmed by the senate in an advise and consent role. they are to some level public figures, the people go out and talk to the public. what we'll have in florida and running the show in washington in a lot of ways are career professionals, people who have dealt with a lot of disasters before. i think the real question from the federal perspective for fema and other agencies that are

assisting here is going to be this huge drop-off in personnel that they've had. there have been a couple of thousand personnel missing from fema for the last couple of months or so. they've had difficulty restocking the agency. that's a potential problem. they are definitely operating in thin numbers. and of course one of the issues with any disaster, and i think the politics often gets separated from the reality, is they are responding to a disaster, and disasters are by their very nature unpredictable. you know, we're looking at a state, maybe multiple states that could get pummelled by essentially an act of god, and we hope and pray that it does as little damage as possible. in they are responding to that, and as a result of that, it's just a matter of the best job that they can do to do that.

>> david jolly, you have been through this before as an elected official, hurricane season in florida. over the next few days we'll see the trajectory of this storm, obviously some encouraging signs tonight, but still the potential for grave danger. over the next few days, what is the role of an elected official in florida when something like this is happening? >> to recognize the personal story the human story the danl that is coming on shore. the danger. and we hope this continues to track east we know lives will be in danger. the first job of an elected official is to ensure that a whole of government response is available. and ready when needed. and this goes to the leadership question. it doesn't seem like a big deal to simply have an acting administrator or deputy. the reality what that does is continues to isolate leadership narrative and decision making into the white house. donald trump is not a subject matter expert on disaster

response. he got it wrong on california wild fires. saying if we swept the floor it would work. suggesting to dump water on noter dum noter dame. and officials said absolutely not. when the voices from washington are uninformed like trump. it has an impact on the confidence people in florida have on elected officials. this is a dangerous storm. state officials are repaired and will rely on washington for coordination and reimbursement that state officials coordinate. what we do in the moments is frankly you prepare for the worst and hope for the best and to all floridaens don't do anything stupid. this is dangerous. lives could be in danger. >> stay with us. coming up quick political updates. when the "the 11th hour" continues. if you have medicare, listen up.

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people in north carolina are voting right now to fill in an open house seat. the special election is a do over from last november. when the results were tossed out over voter fraud. republican led by fewer than 1,000 votes that win was never certified. he's not running this time. instead it's republican dan bishop vs. democrat dan. today the president tweeted endorsement of bishop and rally

in north carolina night before the election. september 10. still with us, we thought the 2018 midterms were over. in 2018. this is actually the last election from that cycle. put this up on the screen. a new poll from the race we're talking about. check this out. a bipartisan democrat and republican pollster teamed up together. the result raised eyebrows. the democrat leading by four points. talk about the stakes for this. special elections are closely watched. this comes in the sha dee of a presidential campaign. the shadow. >> the stakes are on one level one congressional district which won't tip the balance of the house and certainly won't deprive democrats of the ability to run the house or pass bills in the house and also will not give them the power to run rough shot over president trump given he has the senate and presidency. that said, you look at the poll.

talking to democrats and republicans and knowing both sides think this is a close race. regardless of which dancandidat wins it, unless it's the republicans. you have seen a district shift strongly away from republicans of president trump. he won this district by eleven points. it shouldn't be competitive. for democrats. and here they have a candidate who is in a position to potentially win it. from charlotte to fayette ville and to the south carolina border. this is a district built for republicans to win. and not one -- it has some certainly areas in the cities. it has areas. it's a big rural chunk as well. and the kintd of area that donald trump needs to win a lot of the types of areas this

district covers across the country to win reelection. >> the other piece of news in the house. on the republican side another retirement announced today. john shimkus from illinois. representing a district you call a safe republican district. this is not necessarily talking about a change of balance of power here. does this say something? we have seen a number of this? how republicans are looking at the next election. >> it does. it says republicans aren't pretending to have a shot at taking back the house of representatives. for a lot of republicans particularly shimkus who have been there a while. it's no fun serving in the minority. in the senate in the minority you have some power. as a single senator. in the house it's not true. the majority sets the agenda and runs the entire table. there's not a lot you can do in the minority. that's why shimkus is retiring. there are a few steets held by democrats in trump leaning

districts simply as a result of the blue wave. what's happening. recruiting candidates to run against democrats they know can't win. they'll raise a lot hof money and spend money. the odds are high democrats hold the house in 2020. shimkus and others know that. that's why they're leaving. >> that's going to be we talk about the special elections we have had over the last couple years. we had the pennsylvania one in march of 2018. ohio in the run up to the 2018 midterms and this north carolina. from my standpoint we're going to have the big board fired up and watching that closely. any early clues about 2020. david and john we thank you for joining us tonight. appreciate that. be sure to stay with us this labor day weekend. we'll have complete coverage of hurricane dorian as it continues to make its way potentially towards florida. hopefully away from it. we'll monitor that.

that is our broadcast for tonight brian will be back next week. thank you for being with us. and good night from new york. . i'm craig melvin. and i'm natalie morales. and this is "dateline." ♪ denita was a light in this dark world. that's what she was about. she was just a cup of love. i'm like, "who saw this coming?" >> a beautiful young student gunned down. >> things like that just didn't happen there. >> why? who? who would want to do this? >> i thought i had my man. >> her boyfriend was a police officer. >> if anyone knew how to do this and get away with it, wouldn't it be him? >> then someone told police what he saw.