may have been victims themselves. investigations into epstein's death remain ongoing as well. "the beat" will stay on this story. that's going to do it for me. i'm chris jansing. "hardball" will chris matthews is up next. heading into the back stretch. let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews in washington. as we enter labor day weekend, we mark the traditional end of summer, of course, and the beginning of an intense new phase in the presidential campaign of 2020. ten democrats have made the cut for next month's debate. that puts the top billing three candidates, joe biden and senators bernie sanders and elizabeth warren bunched together at center stage. and while the summer has brought its share of ups and downs, the shape of the race has remained gelled. on the very first day of summer,

for example, june 21st, former vice president joe biden led the pack in the real clear politics average at 32 points, with senator bernie sanders at 15, senator warren at 12, kamala harris and pete buttigieg tied at 7. today biden continues to hold a double-digit lead with 29% followed by sanders and warren at 17% together. warren has steadily climbed in the polls, gaining 5 points in the past three months. former senator kamala harris made a high jump following the first debate, but has since fallen back to where she was in late june. meanwhile, biden is again facing scrutiny after a garbled comment in new hampshire. he has been hit with a "washington post" story today detailing inaccuracies from his account of visiting afghanistan to honor the heroism of a navy captain. as for warren, politico reports her steady rise could make for a tougher road ahead. quote, fellow liberal icon bernie sanders and warren have long had a nonaggression pact,

and various polls have shown overlap between kamala and warren. but if warren attacks someone else's record on the debate stage, she will get it back in return. i'm joined by former democratic congresswoman donna edwards of maryland, who's is also a "washington post" contributing. a former senior adviser to hillary clinton campaign and there you are, as editor of the nevada independent. we'll start with this first thing. who won this summer, donna edwards? anybody? >> well, i think democratic voters won, because they got to see the diversity of the candidates that reflected by the voters. they got to see all of them on stage at various times, and now they're starting to make choices. this is what democrats have wanted and they want to choose somebody who is going to beat donald trump. and they have a range of candidates who can do that.

>> let me go to jon ralston. the oddsmaking city of the world. what do you think? do you think the democrats look better at the end of the summer as a pack than they did going in? >> i don't think that's really necessarily the case, chris. and of course all the caveats apply and that it's about to turn september of the year before the election. but i think elizabeth warren, as you mentioned, six months ago, even three months ago wasn't looking as strong as she is now. but there is, as you also mentioned, a consequence to that. whatever nonaggression pacts existed in this race are about to evaporate, maybe starting as early as next week. >> well, ginger, elizabeth warren, senator warren has been -- my term has been loving bernie to death. i love his medicare for life thing. it's all great. everything he says i like, because she is younger and may think a better appealing candidate for next year. >> it's not bernie sanders's voters that elizabeth warren

needs to get first. it's joe biden's. she's embracing sanders, his ideas, his opinions. his voters aren't going to simply be won over, even if she attacked him. would probably repel his supporters even more by going on the attack against bernie sanders. if she starts to show that she can build even more consensus, that she can be the really close competitor to biden, that she can take biden's voters away, that's how she wins. >> how does she move right while she stays left? >> maybe she doesn't have to move right. we have to remember there are a lot of voters looking at more than just where their policies line up on the political spectrum. they're looking at their viability. they're looking at their ability to run against trump. they're looking at their personalities. voters look at all of these factors. so she could win some of those voters who might not love her policies but still see her -- >> how does she outschmooze joe biden? >> that's the tough part. he is a quintessential campaigner. we talk about all of his flaws, but at his core, he is a man who

can connect with voters. and if it's a ground game in iowa, it's about getting out there and shaking hands and kissing babies, which iowa still is, that does favor biden on the ground. >> adrienne, you've been through these national campaigns. you know how they turn. we'll get to that in a moment. but they do turn, even in early january, they flip. >> yep. yeah, it's early but it's not early. what we're seeing, chris, of course is the front-runner of that field is really starting to gel. poll after poll, real clear politics average says joe biden, elizabeth warren and bernie sanders are really the top three to beat. but i would sort of say this is joe biden's summer that he won. elizabeth warren of course has made incremental movement in the polls and that's been good for her. but joe biden has had a number of situations that might normally sink a candidate, but he has risen above. his poll numbers are still outstanding. >> do you like his press strategy? >> yeah, i do. >> it's basically peek do, do an interview once in a while and then go back? >> well, it's working for him

right now. i think what they're also reminding everybody, and for those of us on television, it's a reminder too, this campaign is not going to be fought and won on twitter. that's something they have been focusing on time and time again. his support among african americans and older white men and women which were the two most heavily voting constituencies in the democratic party still remains exceptionally strong. so i still think this is his race to lose. but the debates are going to be everything, and they're going to tell us a lot. >> back to you and the african american vote, donna. it seems to me that voters in the minority community have to spend their lives voting for people in the majority. ethnic majority. >> well, they do. >> they get to know people. they get to decide who to trust. that's my gut. >> that's what they decided at this stage about joe biden. i get all of my information from my hair salon. the ladies in the hair solon tell me they like joe biden because they trust him, because they know him, and because they feel comfortable with him. and as long as that holds, it's going to be tough for any of

these other candidates to break into that vote. >> it may well be chemistry, because he's had a large african american constituency for his whole career. drive through wilmington. it's a minority town, and it's on the amtrak. you drive through it and that's his people. i've seen him in action. i think he does know how to talk to people. >> i was with him. i worked at the news journal in wilmington, was with him the day he boarded the train with barack obama to come to d.c. for the inauguration. that crowd was quite diverse. those were the people that were there to see obama and biden. and he is beloved in delaware. and i think that's really what's those memories are what's helping drive that. >> well, now to the other side of joe biden. here is how former vice president biden told that war story last week up in new hampshire. >> young navy captain, navy, navy up in the mountains in the konar valley in afghanistan. one of his buddies got shot, fell down a ravine about 60 feet. four star general asked me would i go up into the fob. and everybody got concerned a

vice president going up in the middle of this. but we can lose a vice president. we can't lose many more of these kids. and i went to pin him. i said sir, i don't want a damn thing. do not pin it on me, sir, please, sir. do not do that. he died. he died. >> in "the washington post" today, based on interviews with more than a dozen troops and commanders, quote, it appears as though the former vice president has jumbled elements of at least three actual events into one story of bravery, compassion and regret that never happened. in an interview with "washington post" columnist jonathan capehart afterwards, biden tried to argue away the relevance of the details of his story. >> what is the gaffe when i said there was a young man i tried to pin a medal on, he said i don't want it sir, he died, he died, he died. i was making the point how courageous these people are, how incredible they are, this generation of warriors, these fallen angels we've lost. and so i don't know what the

problem is. what is it i said wrong? >> well, biden was also asked by capehart if he is hurting himself with these ongoing mistakes. >> it feeds into the narrative that joe biden makes things up. joe biden is too old, joe biden isn't all there. how do you keep the narrative, the too old narrative from damaging your campaign? how do you break out of this narrative? can you? >> well, i can only break out of it when i win. >> jon ralston, he never seems to hurt anybody really with these gaffes. this was really -- i've told this story a thousand times and congealed one story rather than three different stories. i don't know whether -- the trouble is you don't know whether there ever was a conversation with the former vice president and the four star general where he said we can lose a vice president. we don't know if that ever

happened. he is not ernest hemingway. you don't get to make it up based on facts. i don't have to have the fax. >> the problem is, chris, this is the kind of thing, this last thing "the washington post" story, i mean, if it were joe biden analyzing that story said the whole thing is a bunch of malarkey, right? a guy made up, conflate lead different stories. it's different than saying you were in vermont when you were in new hampshire or having a slip of the tongue. sometimes i walk into a room and i can't remember what i walked into the room for. those are things that everybody does. but jonathan capehart is right is it feeds into that narrative that biden maybe is too old for yet another campaign. and the real problem i think, chris, if this gets up to the decibel level or keeps happening where he is seen as a fabulous as someone who makes things up, think about who the democrats are running against. they are running against the guy who has been proven to make things up, to be a pathological liar. they don't want that issue

diluted in a general election. >> what's the role of a staff? if you're walking around, male or female, democrat or republican, socialist, whatever, you got a bunch of people around you. the corner guy in the boxing match. aren't they supposed to say put your arms and get it straight? aren't they supposed to give you advice? mr. vice president, that story is not accurate. you've got to start telling it accurately or you're going to get nailed on this. are the staff people told biden don't interrupt me in my storytelling, because there is a real problem here. why have a staff if they don't help you get it straight. >> no, i think they are, chris. you have to remember he has run for president three times. >> lost. because of this stuff. >> this is the first time he has ever been the front-runner so he is being more scrutinized, rightfully so because he is the front-runner. it's different this time. look, i think we have to keep in mind, take a couple of steps back. he was trying to describe a story. he was coming from a place of passion, from a place of compassion about veterans and

soldiers who have put theirselves in harm's way for our country. he is trying to use this as a moment to show positivity. he wasn't coming from a bad place. >> why didn't he describe it as it happens? >> he should have. i hope he learns from this because i do think there will be some problems going forward. but i think we areiful story in "the washington post." i don't know this guy, but the reporting was really good in "the post." it went through point by point by point all these totally different events and how they got them all botched in together. >> and he took real life events and mixed them up and took pieces. i agree with you. and let's be clear, though. that was a great story. joe biden is not a journalist. he is a politician. >> remember janet in "the washington post"? remember janet? they made up a story, putting together all the pieces? >> absolutely. we would get fired for that. let's be clear, though. the measure that voters are using are not journalism ethics that they're applying to these candidates. and we should look back at 2016

and say we told voters the times that president trump wasn't truthful or the times he wouldn't answer questions or the things he wouldn't tell the voters, and they didn't care. they still elected him. >> elizabeth warren has a steady climb this summer, a very good summer for her. apparently people are going to start challenging her now according to politico, which the democrats are already opening up new lines of attack against warren, calling her celebrated policy proposals, quote, a fraud. that's the word used, challenging her to say how she would pay for the massive health care plan, highlighting a lack of diversity in her supporters, that's another attack and dropping reminders of her long span as a republican. aides privately complain she has gotten fawning treatment in the media. pressed on where the money would come from, boy, i tried to get that out of her, donna. i asked the question three times. how much money will your medicare taxes go up to pay for medicare for life? it's going to go up.

tell us an estimate. and people say well, why should she tell you that? it's going to hurt her. it's a good question. i don't like the answer. your thoughts. >> well, look, i think what elizabeth warren is going to face in this next round of debates is that everybody's going to be on this stage, and you've got people in the second and third poll positions. in order for some of those below to leap forward, they're going to have to go on the attack. they're going to have to knock away either number two or number three. and they've seen what happens when they go after number one. it doesn't actually seem to really matter. i think we're going to see, and i think her plans are going to be put to the test. the one thing they can't do is they can't go after her in the way donald trump goes after her. but they will legitimately question those proposals. >> jon, last night i had amy klobuchar on last night. very impressive legislator, and i say who is the better legislator, you or warren? she said i'm the best legislator there is. basically, she didn't want to get personal.

that what we're going watch in two weeks, people saying i'm better than her, but i'm not knocking her, or what? >> i just don't think that's going to work anymore, chris. i just don't think that these nonaggression pacts are going to stick. these other candidates who are below the top three have to try to distinguish themselves. you're certainly going to see senator harris do that again. it seems like forever ago now, right? when she went after biden. and biden survived that and harris went down afterwards. so i just -- i don't think you're going to see these candidates playing nice with each other. but warren's problem i think in becoming a front-runner is that she doesn't want to explain certain things. you mention when you asked her how to pay for it, she was at a forum here in las vegas, and i asked her the question about okay, you're for medicare for all. there are a lot of people worried what the transition looks like. how are you going to reassure people? she doesn't have a good answer for that. juvenile who benefit that inures to is biden.

biden likes talking about health care. he likes talking about obamacare. he likes the mend it don't end it. and he thinks as long as they talk about health care, that's going help him. and he may be right. >> he may be right. he has a family history of needing health care. thank you, donna edwards. the guests are sticking with donna. only one act tonight, but thank you. we've got an active candidate coming on. the sleepers at this point in the 1976 election cycle, few people had ever heard of jimmy carter. a queer latyear later he won th presidency. is there a chance one of the candidates one polling at 1% or 2% can actually win this baby? we're going to show you some numbers that show dukakis, kerry, they all came from nowhere in the fall or january of election year. and trump's politics a disaster. he tries to show empathy when disaster strikes in swing states like florida, but brings out his usual venom when bad things

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welcome back to "hardball." we're still more than 150 days away from the first contests of the 2020 election, the iowa caucuses. and right now former vice president joe biden is in the clear front-runner position in the polls. leading most candidates by double-digits. but history shows that polling this early doesn't always spot the winner. candidates who polo early on sometimes do go on to win the party's nomination and the election. as we know, jimmy carter won the presidency in 1976. but in january of 1976, carter was polling at 4%. while hubert humphrey was at 29%. george wallace at 20. in 1988 -- also in january, democrats nominated michael

dukakis. but in january that year, dukakis was polling at 10% behind gary hart who was at 25%. jesse jackson was at 19%. in 2004, john kelly won the nomination, but in january of that year, he was only polling at 9% while howard dean was at 26%. in december, by the way, of 2007, right before 2008, hillary clinton was beating barack obama by 18 points. clinton was at 45%. obama just 27. we know how that turned out. in the current race, joe biden himself is rejecting the idea that he is the only one that can win this time because he is an old white guy as he put it. let's watch. assertion is made that well, the reason, the only person that can beat trump is, quote, an old white guy, i just think that -- i mean, i think there is other people in the race who can beat trump. >> who?

>> well, i think almost anybody. they'd all make a better president than trump, no matter who is left in the race. >> well, still with me are ginger gibson, adrienne elrod and jon ralston out in nevada. but joining us is presidential candidate and former u.s. congressman john delaney. mr. delaney, congressman. >> chris. >> you're one of them sleepers at best. tell me how you win now. how does it die down in the numbers that hasn't been able to make the debate. >> we've got a long way to go. there is still a lot of candidates in this race. and the only polls that really matter is what happens in iowa, in my opinion. i just think there are a lot of. >> you're living out there, aren't you? >> i'm spending a lot of time out there. i've done 35 trips. we've gone to all 99 counties. >> can you detail the state? >> yes, i. we had the social media primary, but now i think it's going to shift. i think the focus is going to be on iowa. i think iowa is looking for solutions. we're in the middle of a trade

war right now, and it's destroying iowa and their economy. i'm the only one who, for example, who supported president obama's effort to get in the transpacific partnership, which would make every acre -- >> tpp. >> yeah, it would make every acre of ground in iowa more valuable. we don't have an alternative division. at least what i'm hearing from the front-runners, there is no new vision about how we exist. >> what's your favorite city in iowa? >> i'm not going to pick my favorites. >> just kidding. no to ginger. let me go to nevada on this one. i'm going go to jon ralston on this. this idea that anybody can win these things at this point is true by history. it is a fact that these people, even john kerry seemed like mr. establishment. they were nowhere in the race. howard dean had it looked it looked like. jimmy carter was jimmy who. and this was in january. we're speeding up this process now. but one thing that strikes me, nothing's moved since last june, and that's my question to everybody here. how come if anything can happen, nothing's happened except warren has moved up a bit.

nothing's happened. >> i think it's interesting, chris, in the sense that biden has taken some blows and he still has a sizable lead, except for that one outlier monmouth poll over everybody else. i don't think that's insignificant. but as much as a nevada partisan as i am, i have to say of the john delaney is right in the way the presidential campaigns are covered, everything will crystallize in iowa, and then it will either be okay, it looks like everything is the same in the top three of the top three, or we'll be saying on the night of the iowa caucus, oh my god, candidate x, whether it's mayor pete or castro or someone we never thought could do it suddenly did well in iowa, then that momentum carries on to new hampshire and then back to the most important state where i'm sitting right now. and by the way, chris, i have no favorite city in nevada. >> okay. let me ask ginger here. and then we'll get to adrienne here. it seems to me that when you have ten candidates up on the stage, or 20 as we've had, it's

very hard for people to focus on any particular candidate and make a big leap of judgment. >> i think the thing that's important to know about iowa is that those are voters who are paying attention. and they've been engaged very early in this process. they were showing up to candidate events in january before candidates were even announced. we are not in 1991 anymore. people don't have to wait for bill clinton to show up in iowa to figure out who he is. they can look them up online. they can watch them. >> ergo? >> watch them on television. that makes it a lot harder to build support after you've had six months of exposure. even if you've got a favorite porkchop in iowa or a favorite city, you got to have -- it has to happen earlier. >> congressman delaney made the case you win in iowa, you can win the whole thing. what follows? does iowa follow the country or does the country follow iowa? >> that's left to be determined. >> tell me. if you win nationally should you come out nationally or go in and pop goes the weasel, you've won out of iowa and not winning any

other poll until then? >> i think it depends on who wins iowa this time around. if it's somebody like joe biden or elizabeth warren -- >> would it be a surprise though or the national polls will tell us? >> i think it depends on how close the race is and it frankly depends on how many people are still in the race. i was on hillary clinton's campaign in 2008, and we were surprised that barack obama won iowa in 2008. our polls showed us that it was going to be close, but we didn't think we were going to lose. that's why the ground game is so important. that's why organizers on the ground who know how to organize a caucus, it's so critically important. and by the way, cory booker as you probably know has a very strong ground game in iowa. i think he is somebody who is polling right now in iowa around 5%, but he is somebody who could perform much better in the caucuses because of his strong ground. >> how do you as a moderate democrat win in iowa which is definitely more left than the rest of the country? >> i win on trade, really simple. i'm going to do really well in iowa on trade, because trade is going to become in my judgment the number one issue facing this economy, and quite frankly, it is the number one issue facing

iowa right now. if you look what's happened to iowa farmers with the trade war we're in, which by the way is one of the reasons the amazon is burning. >> so you should call up george stephanopoulos and tell him to raise the trade issue in this three-hour debate. >> it relates to everything. there is a reason we have fires in the amazon because people from iowa are not able to sell their soybeans to china. so that creates an opportunity for the biggest buyer of soy beans to buy those soy beans somewhere else, and those farmers in brazil are burning the ground so they can grow soy beans. and my point here is this trade issue affects everything we care about. >> do you order soy milk when you go to starbucks? >> sometimes i do. >> do you? it applies to everything. if you look at what -- >> i've never heard soy spoken so many times on this show. >> i said soy beans, not soy milk. if you look what's going on in health care in public schools in rural america, this is all related. and i believe trade is going to

be a huge issue with iowa. i unfortunately think this trade issue is going to get worse, and it's going to continue to disrupt our economy and disrupt the global economy. and i think it's going to become the centerpiece. and i think president obama was right on the transpacific partnership. >> is this guy too intellectual for politics or what? >> absolutely not. i do think to your point earlier, is this a national win in iowa or not. if you were in the west des moines high school of barack obama the night before the 2008 iowa caucus, you would have had a good sense he was going to win. i was there. he had enthusiasm. i mean packed to the rafters of that high school gymnasium. it was quite clear that night that he was winning. and i think that's what matters, that enthusiasm. >> try to tell that to people, how electric those days were. he worked a room of a couple hundred people better than anything i've ever seen. it was electric. it was chilling. thank you, ginger jibz gibson, thank you adrienne el roll, thank you jon ralston.

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for the 13th straight weekend. demonstrators have been protesting what they see as china trying to exert stricter controls over the semi autonomous territory of hong kong. today police arrested and later released prominent pro-democracy activists. the protesters say it won't stop their movement. >> the regime and hong kong government is trying to create a wide terror to try to scare hong kong people to not to participate in the social movement and in the democratic movement in the future, but we hong kong people won't give up and won't be scared by these wide terror and injustice. >> under pressure from police, organizers officially canceled their demonstrations this weekend. but protesters are expected to turn up anyway, possibly leading to further violent clashes with the police there. millions, by the way of protesters have taken to the streets in recent weeks, at one point overtaking hong kong's airport, forcing the

cancellation of hundreds of flights. for more i'm joined by michael foc fuchs and nbc news correspondent in hong kong. what is happening? what's going to happen this weekend? >> good evening, chris. well, that's the big question that's on everyone's mind. this weekend there was a massive protest that was scheduled here, very highly anticipated. however, the government here decided to ban it virtually at the last minute. now this comes after an escalation in clashes between protesters and police in which we saw protesters throwing molotov cocktails and bricks and things that frankly could have killed somebody at the police, and the police in their part fired a water cannon. they fired warning shots in the air, at least on one occasion, and they pointed their weapons directly at protesters. despite this ban that they've imposed, protesters are saying they're turning out into the streets regardless.

everyone in hong kong right now is on edge. they're bracing for what could be a very violent showdown. >> let me ask you the interpretive question. what is the strategy? not the goal, the strategy of the protesters, and what is the strategy of the government? >> well, as you've seen, the strategy of the protesters has been to overwhelm the local government with hundreds of thousands of people. and by their count, sometimes over one million protesters have taken to the streets. when you have this critical mass of people which, you know, it's a city of just about seven million people. and some of these protests have had close to two million people. how are you supposed to manage something like that? it's also largely leaderless movement. so even if the authorities here are to ban a protest like they've done this weekend, there's nothing they can do to keep people from coming out under their own volition.

the very interesting sort of caveat to their strategy has been to rebrand what they're doing. so even though this protest has been banned recently, they've come up with ways to get around that by labeling it a religious gathering because the city can't stop a religious gathering. so the plan for them now is to come out under the auspices of a prayer meeting. and then if they're still sticking around for a large protest afterwards, well, that's open to interpretation, i suppose, on their participate. the government, they're still trying to figure out exactly how to handle these types of mass protests. as we've seen in their tactics, they've been sometimes rather disorganized in dealing with them, using tear gas, using the water cannon, but not always coordinating very well and very effectively. we've seen many instances in which the police have been outnumbered and frankly a little confused. >> well, within the past hour, president trump was leaving for camp david, and he credited

himself with helping to prevent violence in congress hong. let's listen to him. >> well, the hong kong figures in a very tough situation, very tough. i think if it weren't for the trade talks, hong kong would be in much bigger trouble. i think it would have been much more violent. i do believe that because of what i'm doing with trade, that's very much keeping down the temperature in hong kong. i think it's by really a lot. >> let me go to michael on this question. i get the feeling that beijing is waiting for the protesters to break out, start destroying property, start doing things that look like they would threaten the culture of china, the stability of china and then they'll do what they have to do is crack down. are they playing that game, let them go as wild as possible and then use that as an excuse to crush them? >> i think they would like to have that kind of a provocation from their perspective to crack down a lot tougher on the

protesters. i think we're all watching and waiting for that unfortunate possibility that they could come in. >> what are the protesters hoping to get done against a communist dictatorial government? >> they don't see that it way. they see it as the government they are trying to influence first and foremost as the government of hong kong themselves. china gave them special rights when they were handed over from the british in 1997. and said for 50 years, you can basically have your democracy. so what the protesters are asking for right now to beijing is give us the rights that you promised you would give us. >> that's the right argument, that they deserve it because that was the deal. but china wants to have the right to extradite people into the mainland to punish anybody who even talks like that. >> right. and that's one of the latest examples, right. i think what you're seeing right now reaction to, which is over the years that they have been now controlled by beijing, there has been increasing amount of oppression circumstances it tiananmen square? is it a disaster at the end? >> that is absolutely a distinct possibility to watch out for.

i think what's more likely is a slow but steady ramping up of the pressure that they try to suffocate these protests, arrests of the leaders of the movement, more harsher tactics from the police there, cancelling protests. i think you're going to see more of those kinds of tactics in an attempt to prevent a tiananmen type. >> thank you, chris michael fuhs, chris livesay in congress hong. how this president has responded to natural disasters. he does it on the basis of politics. states he cares about, he cares about. states he is not going to win or puerto rico, he doesn't care. you're watching "hardball." our 18 year old was in an accident. usaa took care of her car rental, and getting her car towed. all i had to take care of was making sure that my daughter was ok. if i met another veteran, and they were with another insurance company, i would tell them, you need to join usaa

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welcome back to "hardball." hurricane dorian has been upgraded to a category 3 coming into -- heading towards the coast of florida. it's currently heading towards

the bahamas and is projected to approach the florida coast late monday. there is the map and where the projection is headed. we see it somewhere in the middle of florida there, hitting landfall. nbcs's meteorologist bill karins is with us with the latest. bill, based upon your experience, does this look like it's going to be a 3 or 4 when it hits florida? >> i would be surprised if it was a 3. most likely a fo4 and i think i has a good chance of going category 5 some time in the next 48 hours. we've seen a lot of changes in the last 12 hours or so. this is the eye. you can see how symmetrical it's gotten. it's going intensification right now. it is likely a category 4 already. we think the stats will be upgraded considerably when we get the new advisory at 11:00 eastern time. we knew this was going to be a big intense storm. the hurricane center had been predicting that anyways. the big question is where is it going to go. the positive trend today is the cone of uncertainty, the white line. that's kind of the air forecast.

half of it is now off the coast of florida. the other half is either over florida or even into the western gulf. yesterday almost all of it was right down the middle. so the odds of saying this could come close, scare and go out to sea, there is a better chance of that today than there was yesterday. so let me get into a little bit some of the technicalities on the forecast. we watch these computer models. we're going to continue. we still have about 72 hours at least until we get the storm nearest. you can see the trend. it's a little bit away from miami. it's also curving away from the tampa area too. we've had some good friends here the last 12 to 24 hours, chris. if we can continue this off the coast, it would be better for florida, but we still have to watch out georgia, south carolina even north carolina. >> let me ask you about climate and weather. >> sure. >> anybody who goes to miami these days can drive around in a boat if you're lucky to get a boat, and it's like venice. there is no sea level. it's like four or five feet. it's right there. what happens when a hurricane

hits a land mass that's barely above sea level? >> i'll give you these stats, chris. in the last 30 years, the water level in miami has risen an estimated about five to six inches in the last 30 years. because of climate change, scientist says in the next 15 years, it could rise six inches. so that rate of rising water is increasing. so when a storm does finally come and hit, which eventually some year it will, that storm surge will be even higher than should it have been if it wasn't for what we were doing to our planet's climate. >> thank you, bill karins for weather and climate. still ahead, unlike hurricane maria in puerto rico, this disaster is targeting an actual political swing state that also happens to be home to one of trump's premier properties. a look at some of president trump's reactions to natural disasters. they toned vary on a political basis, next in "hardball." hmm. exactly. liberty mutual customizes your car insurance, so you only pay for what you need. nice. but, uh... what's up with your... partner?

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liberty mutual customizes your car insurance, so you only pay for what you need. i wish i could shake your hand. granted. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ welcome back to "hardball." yesterday, president trump canceled his poland trip this weekend to monitor the hurricane down in florida, telling the country it was important for him to be there for the people of florida. it's a shift, of course, from how he treated puerto rico a few days ago when this storm was projected to hit the island hard. he called the u.s. territory one of the most corrupt places on earth, attacked the san juan mayor as incompetent and commented yet another big storm is heading to puerto rico, like

it's their fault. the president has a mixed record of course when it comes to addressing national disaster, sometimes showing more empathy to states that voted for him. here he was expressing his support for the people of texas and florida after hurricanes harvey and irma. >> i'll be going to texas tomorrow. i look very much forward to it. things are being handled really well. the spirit is incredible of the people. >> you're going to get your funding. it's a terrible tragedy. >> i just want to tell you, we are there for you 100%. i'll be back here numerous times. this is a state that i know very well, as you understand and these are special, special people, and we love them. >> but in the wake of hurricane maria, he attacked the puerto rican government itself. >> we're closely coordinated with the territorial and local governments, which are totally and unfortunately unable to handle this catastrophic crisis on their own.

just totally unable to. >> i hate to tell you, puerto rico, but you've thrown our budget a little out of whack. >> he also blamed the state of california for the devastating wildfires there last year, tweeting that there is no reason for these massive deadly and costly forest fires in california except that forest management is so poor. remedy now or no more fed payments. that's trump warning the fires not to happen. i'm joined by eli stokols, white house reporter for "the l.a. times" and jennifer rubin for "the washington post." it's like his tax policy. get the big tax states because they voted against him. don't worry about places that he can't win like california or puerto rico where they don't get to vote for president, but love florida. don't even go to poland, which loves us. don't go there, and don't mess up on texas. it is so obviously political, his empathy. >> well, he is for three years shown and been explicit about the fact that he believes everything is about his self-interests, and it's about

what am i getting back from something. now we don't know -- we have to take him at his word about cancelling the trip to poland. maybe he just didn't want to go to europe for the second time in five days. but he is saying the things about taking the storm seriously, but, you know, it's interesting. he was just -- he left the white house an hour and a half ago for camp david. and as he was talking, he was talking about the storm as if he was guy in a barbershop just talking about it. it looks like it's going to be really bad. got to be honest with you. that's not normally what a president does. wherever the storm is going to be, typically they would be talking to people in the storm's path saying, you know, really got to think twice about staying put. there are going to be resources there. and he also said we'll make the decision on sunday about whether to force an evacuation. that's a decision made at the local level, it's not a top-down decision. there is just not a full grasp of how to be the commander in chief, how to be the president in these sorts of moments regardless where they are. >> they're all getting together. they're out there getting water, doing all the stuff you do.

it's a real situation. he treats it like crowd sizes this is going to be a big one. >> he cheers the sizes of these disasters as if it's good for him that the bigger the disaster help happened under his command. why? because he gets to be the bigger hero cleaning up the mess? i never understood that. >> we need some psychological analysis here. why does this president love big hurricanes? >> because everything is more important and bigger, and he is the best, and he has to do the most for all these people. >> to make the point, here he is yesterday talking about hurricane dorian as an absolute monster. earlier this month he tweeted it. it will be a very big hurricane, perhaps the biggest. don king, i'm talking like him appeared to be awed by the severity of national disasters. let's watch. >> nobody's ever seen anything like it. i've heard the words "epic." i've heard "historic." >> it's the biggest ever. they're saying it's the biggest. it's historic. it is a historic amount of water

in particular. there has never been anything like it. >> it's incredible what's going on. and burned beyond recognition. they can't even see the bodies. it's incredible. >> it was a category 5. i never even knew a category 5 existed. >> he is like a film promoter out of l.a. promoting the next big blockbuster. >> his hyperbole, his vernacular, that's just all he knows. he also doesn't really know how to speak seriously about these things. that's sort of what he does when he is in this situation. and he doesn't talk about climate. he said in puerto rico again, once again, as if it's so annoying. and he refuses to sort of connect the very obvious dots. >> thank you. >> why the oceans are warming, why the storms are getting worse. >> if you read "the new york times," a good newspaper, top of the fold almost every day they've got something from the third world and people suffering from climate change. they're all moving north, because it's hot down there. and it's happening in africa. it's happening in south america, central america. all of this is connected.

>> right. his whole government reports that this is a huge not only national security issue for us, but for the world. we have now a huge migration problem because of wars. we're going have it because of natural disasters. >> and wars because of climate change. >> exactly. the other thing that is so telling is he never talks about people. he is so lacking in human empathy and understanding that this is real people, real people's lives. he hypes the storm, but doesn't talk about the suffering or the plight or the fear of individual people. and it's so like him. this is a guy -- >> this one, the bounty picker upper. these people are under water and he is throwing out paper towels like he is santa claus or something. look at this. he is really into this, look. throwing the long ball here, look, the big long ball. >> remember that trip to puerto rico, he went to this place that was enclosed. he didn't go actually tour some of the hardest hit areas because it's not just empathy, but he really struggles to even face suffering and to deal with

tragedy. >> i bet you any money he is down in florida next week, though. there is votes down there. and they matter. he needs that state. eli stokols, great reporting and great analysis. jennifer, as always, great nalgs. you're watching "hardball." nice. but, uh... what's up with your... partner? not again. limu that's your reflection. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty, liberty, liberty, liberty ♪ with advil liqui-gels, what stiff joints? what bad back? advil is... relief that's fast. strength that lasts. you'll ask... what pain? with advil liqui-gels.

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that's "hardball" for the week. have a nice three-day weekend. up next, a special edition of "all in with chris hayes" in front of a live studio audience. that starts right now. tonight, on a special edition of "all in," the fight to change the system that elected donald trump. the pulitzer prize winning reporter who uncovered the scope of trump's corruption, retiring republican congressman will hurd, and what if the news media just stopped covering this guy? >> and we can never allow that to happen. >> now live from studio 6a in rockefeller plaza, here is chris hayes. >> hello! hello! how are you? how are we doing, everybody? good to see you. all ri