good evening, i'm chris mathews in los angeles. has hillary clinton's strong performance sobered up republicans to the facts of life? are they ready to put their best candidate on the field against her or screwing around and having fun? are they looking to next november or the horror of waking up to president hillary clinton or enjoy another round or two of bashing their party's establishment? the tough questions for republicans, do their voters, big shots, elected officials, whatever, who would you bet would be a stronger challenge for secretary clinton? a wild radical shake-up candidate donald trump or safer, more predictable figure like jeb bush or marco rubio? who would you put there when you know you're facing a formidable

candidate like hillary clinton? joan walsh is a national affairs correspondent for the nation newspaper. and an msnbc political analyst. in iowa this weekend, democrats seemed to rally around clinton. she spoke at the j.j. dinner saturday night. according to a long-time political columnist in iowa, the event felt like democrats concluded the race is over. "the washington post" reported today that clinton has a strong machine backing her. clinton is building a campaign juggernaut on a scale beyond any democratic or republican candidate harnessing the data analytics reshaping modern politics and techniques barack obama used to defeat her. they are using state-of-the-art stuff like obama did to win,

that seven contacts thing, seven contacts right before an election and the right people show up. anne, the key question tonight, have the republicans sobered up? do they know who they are facing and it's not easy? >> yeah. i think republicans had a few months where they thought, gee, hillary really does have one achilles' heel or perhaps more than one they could exploit. she did look cobbled. she didn't have a good summer at all. a number of things didn't break her way till october. october she owned. basically every single thing that could have gone her way in october did. certainly that leaves the republicans here at the end of the month and with iowa 100 days away, definitely sobered up. it's like somebody slapped them after a night at the bar. she is really good on big d.

>> she is. there was a biden primary and she won it. he pushed her to become a better candidate which is one of the best reason for him to run. he would beat her or make her better. she called donors and checked in. called staffers and checked in. she did "saturday night live." she got more personable. i think it really amped up her game. it showed hillary clinton on the big days she shows up and does well. >> i think what happened she was well prepared for that debate with the other democrats. i think that's what gave her confidence and happiness. feeling good, being charming and all that comes from confidence that you've got your game ready. >> i think that is so true. particularly true for her. she is really somebody who prepares. she takes all of that stuff seriously. she's best when she is in the weeds on policy, to be honest. when she knows she is prepared for everything.

some people are charming and they can wing it. i'm not one of those people either. she is known -- >> please. >> no. she is known for overpreparing. i think it showed. then she could be charming. her inner charm could come out because she knows she is ready for anything. >> we know when we are playing our game we are better than when we are bs'ing. there seems to be a disconnect. this is fascinating, between the party's establishment and republican voters. this is key. do the big shots know their own party? according to the associated press, 7-10 republicans say trump could win in november. that is not a big deal, but could win. that is higher than any other candidate. 54% say rubio could win. when it comes to trump, senator lindsey graham had this warning. >> for all of us if we don't step up our game on the establishment side, whatever you want to call it and start challenging these guys more

effectively, i think we are letting the coalition stand. hillary clinton will mop up the floor with this guy. donald trump's position on immigration is hateful and illogical. there is a reason 75% of his tan hispanics disapprove of this guy. if you give a damn of winning, pick somebody who doesn't dig the hole deep were hispanics. >> i like lindsey graham. i can't explain it but i like the guy. he is very good at immigration, but there he is wearing the perfect gray suit, perfect burgundy tie and perfect blue shirt talking for the establishment. is there an establishment? is that something that happens years ago and is gone? the people out there in the republican party are tough, working class, white people who are angry at the system. they are not the people at the club. >> there is an establishment.

they set up a super pac that's given jeb bush what was supposed to be an unbeatable head start. that hasn't worked to jeb's advantage. certainly those people exist. their values and their goals for the republican party exist. i've been waiting for a while to hear somebody say what lindsey graham said there, which is basically, you are about to shoot yourself in the foot argument. which is a very interesting thing to hear one presidential candidate say about another. i think it's in many ways the establishment's best argument against trump. it's taken a while for them to get there. i don't know whether anybody is listening. >> anne, you're covering this every day. i want to ask but women, women my age, older women who vote, who show up, have been through all this crap with male politicians. they see a b-minus or b male running against hillary clinton, why in the world would they vote for the guy?

they would have to vote for somebody who is rock 'em sock 'em change agent, somebody who would make hillary look like the way things are. why is the assumption of lindsey graham the safe bet is the more tame bet? the person who's been around like jeb or somebody? why would that be a safer bet when at times when people are so unhappy, isn't a better bet a revolution than go the same old guy who to most women would be the same old guy. i want to take a chance on a woman or revolutionary, but not some boring old guy that's been around 20, 30 years. your thoughts? >> right. you're absolutely right in that if that's the choice, some guy in a suit who looks like the many guys in the suit who have run for president form elections before, and hillary clinton, i think that's a huge advantage for her as long as she runs a smart campaign from here to the election. one person who could be a potential game changer on that

front for the republicans would be marco rubio. he's sort of of the establishment but not. he's run an anti-establishment campaign. he's young, he's hispanic, good looking, smooth, smart, a lot of political gifts that make him a different and more appealing kind of candidate who could potentially touch a lot of those different levers you mentioned. >> i want to skew over to joan. i'm sorry. marco rubio looks like somebody's son-in-law. >> this is what i was going to get at. >> go ahead. >> come up with the perfect suit, perfect khaki pants, penny loafers. he looks like he's cool. he's harmless, but does he look like president of the united states, head of the armed forces of this country? >> no, he doesn't. he doesn't like his current job. he's acting incredibly entitled the way he is dishing and

dissing the senate. people live their whole lives wanting to be senators. he just doesn't like it so he doesn't show up? who thinks that is commander in chief behavior? who is advising this man? he's imploding as fast as jeb is now. i agree with anne in the sense i do think he could cut into hillary clinton's, if it is hillary clinton, into her edge with latino voters. he could, but not if he starts to hemorrhage other voters. if he starts to become a laughing stock, which he's on the verge of being, i don't think he is better off than jeb bush. he's younger but blowing politics at this moment. >> jim, i wanted to ask you about the basic question of a hearts game. do you shoot the moon with trump? there is no doubt he comes with all kinds of risks. he does guarantee you rock 'em sock 'em. he guarantees you a debate with 100 million people watching. he guarantees hillary will do her homework. what is this boys' nation? i'm serious. he's a good guy and can give a

damn good speech thanks to todd harris' coaching? didn't we go through this? we went through obama first-termer who gives a good speech. does he match that? shoot the moon or go safe? >> probably smarter to pick somebody different. i can't see anybody out of this list who is going to be very welcome in the general campaign. donald trump is too loose of a cannon. marco rubio is the face of the future if you look the two of them side by side. as a woman friend of mine said he just looks immature. immature is a really devastating critique of marco rubio. it will be hard for him to get past. this flap about him not showing up for work in the senate is another sample not having the maturity to lead the nation. >> and being broke all the time. jefferson jackson dinner featured a more aggressive bernie sanders going after hillary clinton.

it was the moment sanders sharpened the knives. let's watch. >> let me be clear about the current trade deal that we are debating in congress, the trans pacific partnership. that agreement is not now nor has it ever been the gold standard of trade agreements. today some are trying to rewrite history by saying they voted for one anti-gay law to stop something worse. that's not the case. i am opposed to keystone pipeline from day one. i listened carefully to what bush and cheney and rumsfeld had to say and i said no, they're not telling the truth. but that was a tough vote. i came to that fork in the road and i took the right road even though it was not popular at that time.

>> good for him. i must say i like a politician who rings all the bells at the same time. it was tpp, pipeline, keystone and the iraq war. he's ringing all those bells against hillary. the new spelling of hillary's name is s-o-m-e. it's totally legitimate to go after votes and their positions. >> i agree it's totally legitimate. some people in the clinton camp were pushing back over the week. there is nothing wrong with what he did. she hit him correctly on guns. he didn't do anything personal, below the belt. she hasn't either. democrats are happy to see this. if people want somebody who's been in the same place, they may go with senator sanders. there is nothing below the belt about this. i don't know why people are squawking. >> because they squawk. thank you very much. you can't always play -- hillary plays defense, this guy will be harder to play defense against the guy who is completely ideologically clear-headed and knows what he is. this could be a great debate.

you think the nation will endorse bernie sanders? >> i don't know. >> will you tell me when you find out? >> you'll be the first one i tell. definitely. >> thanks. >> larry david is the reason why he gave that speech. he can't be looked at as wanting to be her vice president. >> good point. >> thank you. i never thought so. i think the guy is his own man. thank you. according to howard dean, he's been that guy for 50 years. he hasn't changed. that's for sure. thank you. what a great reporter to have on the show, anne. thank you jamal simmons and joan walsh who is always a delight. jeb bush says he's got cooler things to do. he doesn't need us. he's got cooler things to done run for president. he's frustrated with his campaign. what did he think he was getting into? this is a grown-up job. i've got better things to do?

>> dr. ben carson is the front-runner in iowa at least. donald trump finds himself in an unusual spot, second place. that's in iowa. what's trump doing about it? he's hitting carson on his religion. getting personal here. >> two days to go to the presidential debate in boulder, colorado. which candidate is under the most pressure? who would be the next dropout? might be bush. >> october surprise. this is "hardball." te when a moment turns romantic why pause to take a pill? or stop to find a bathroom? cialis for daily use is approved to treat both erectile dysfunction and the urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, get medical help right away

for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or any symptoms of an allergic reaction, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a free 30-tablet trial. joe biden says he didn't run for the top office because he felt he couldn't win. he talked about his decision in an interview last night with "60 minutes." let's watch. >> is it that you think you couldn't win another that you didn't want to run? >> couldn't win. i'll be very blunt. if i thought we could have put together the campaign that our supporters deserved and contributors deserved, i would have gone out and done it.

>> why did it take you to tuesday to figure that out? >> it took that long for us to decide as a family. look, dealing with the loss of beau, any parent listening who lost a child knows it doesn't follow schedules of primaries and caucuses and contributors and the like. everybody grieves at a different pace. >> biden said there was no doubt there was no hollywood moment before beau's death. in his final hours he asked his father not to run. we'll be right back.

>> welcome back to "hardball." i love that song. from front-runner to freefall, jeb bush faced questions his presidential campaign is falling apart. >> bush is falling apart. >> blah, blah, blah. >> blah candidates shouldn't say blah, blah, blah. bush huddled with his family this weekend and richest donors in houston to resuscitate the campaign. one supporter at the meeting, an insider told politico, the patient is either in intensive care or being put into hospice. we are going to see a slow death. what a terrible thing to say if you're an insider in the bush operation. this weekend during a town hall with south carolina senator tim scott, bush publically fumed about the state of the race and trump's rise in it. at one point bush spoke about getting out of the race entirely. >> how do you bring our country together and lead us into the promised land?

>> well, i'm no moses. somehow we've changed the dynamic about leadership where if you actually, like i just did, say we need people with a servant heart, that is a sign of weakness. that's ridiculous. if you assume people aren't bad people, you actually can reweave the web of civility. that's strength. if this election is about how we are going to fight to get nothing done, i don't want any part of it. i don't want to be elected president to sit around and see gridlock become so dominant that people literally are in decline in their lives. that is not my motivation. i've got a lot of really cool things i could do other than sit around being miserable listening to people demonize me and me feeling compelled to demonize them. that is a joke. elect trump if you want that. >> that's a strange way to sit k with your legs part apart. it's like he's riding a horse. today donald trump retorted.

>> he was very angry over the week. he said, you know, if this is going to be this nasty, let them have trump as their president. it's going to be nasty. if he doesn't like my tone, how is he going to deal with putin? how is he going to do with these killers in the middle east? >> gene robinson is a pulitzer prize winning columnist for "the washington post." howard fineman globe editorial director at huffington post. i never heard a candidate say i've got better things to do than talk to you people out there i could have fun playing with my toys since i'm rich and well born. what a statement. >> yeah. i never heard a successful say anything like that. i thought one rule of running for president that i really don't think has been broken this year or has dissolved this year, i think it applies, you have to ask people for their votes. you have to be sincere in that. you have to act as if you want

the office. if you act, if you say, not just act as if, but say, look, i've got better things to do than be here humoring all you people who seem to be enamored with this guy i can't stand, what's going to happen to his poll numbers? i think they go probably tick down from the current 7%, 8% down to 5% or 6%. it's a slap in the face. >> how low can he go? i like this job because i like this job. i don't think you begin to like a job if you decide you don't like the job. he is running for president of the united states, did he decide or somebody else decided it? trump has a point. if you don't like the heat, stay out of the kitchen. the heat is heat. it's no surprise he's running against donald trump. >> no. i've covered the bushes as a whole. i covered jeb bush for many years. i covered him when he was

running for governor of texas. excuse me, governor of florida. i got to know him well unlike the guy who ran for governor for texas george bush who exuded an energy and enjoyment about running. jeb, in this case, betrayed a sense i've always had of him going way back, which is he is doing a duty dance for the family. you ask why he's running? i sometimes feel it's more because he's supposed to run. because he was the one that barbara thought should be president. he had the phi beta kappa. he's tall and the bushes worship people who are tall and seemingly elegant. he was central casting, but i don't know he wanted to be cast in it. i say that with all seriousness. >> is he doing it like ted kennedy to get it over with? >> yes. you put on top of that the fact the whole bush thing, which is this, their attitude toward politics, i'm in pittsburgh where moderate republicans used to thrive.

people like elzy hillman and john heinz. that's who the bushes were. he's trying to fashion himself into something else. the world is completely changed. you have a republican party that is run by the harshest part of the right, the evangelicals and libertarians. the tone has changed and transmission changed. politic is conducted very personally with anger and personal insults because it's based on social media. donald trump understands this. it has to be donald trump saying something tough and nasty because that goes viral. jeb doesn't want to go viral. he has no interest income viral. that's the way the world works now. frankly, he strikes me as a guy who doesn't want any part of it. >> bush's struggles have invigorated donald trump on the stump. he hit bush three times now in three days. >> here's a guy wants to run our country and he can't even run his own campaign.

bush has no money. he's cutting, he's meeting today with mommy and daddy and they're working on their campaign. >> he is languishing way back in the pack, but his campaign is a total disaster. he paid people far too much. his campaign is in disarray. his whole thing is a mess. is campaign is a disaster. i came along. i'm proud of it. >> gene, a guy who says i've got better things to do. what would they be? what relevance would the life of jeb bush be if he weren't running for president? would we be thinking about the guy? >> that is a very good question. maybe he would be in the private sector. i don't know. if you don't think being president is cool, you really shouldn't run for it. it's a whole lot of stuff to go through to run for being president. i think trump, of course, is clever and he sees that by attacking jeb bush, even if he

doesn't think bush is the major threat any more, by attacking bush, he attacks the republican establishment. that has been sort of a winning strategy for him to be the outsider. what's the down side? >> last thought here. it seems what's going on here is that bush in his desperation is doing what hillary clinton's people did in their desperation in '08. they are saying it's a fairy tale. this whole thing with trump isn't real. the polls aren't real. if they were bush's numbers, we would be assuming who is the next candidate pick. it's i done. >> that's not going to help jeb bush. the fact he said that business i can take my ball and go home. unfortunately plays into the whole image of him. like chris christie shouting in the quiet car which played into chris christie's problem. this is the same thing.

>> one version was the conductor came by checking the ticket, he pointed out this is the quiet car. the other claim somebody went to the guy. i had problems with the quiet car myself. >> me, too. i admit it. >> anyway, i do love the quiet car when i'm trying to get work done. i like it then. >> i'm guilty. >> you and i have the most obvious supply of free-flowing guilt that ever existed. thank you howard fineman and gene robinson who is guilt-free. >> that's right. >> ben carson is surging ahead of donald trump right now in iowa. donald trump is making it clear he does not like losing. round table will be here next.

we have a breaking story.

donald trump has fallen to second place behind ben carson. we informed ben, but he was sleeping. >> welcome back to "hardball." that was donald trump mocking the recent coverage of ben carson's ascent in iowa. three polls have shown carson with a significant lead over trump in iowa. the most recent by monmouth university has carson ahead. trump has been slamming carson on the campaign trail. in a rally saturday, he raised questions about ben carson's religion, suggesting the seventh day adventist church which carson belongs is out of the mainstream. >> look, i don't have to say it. i'm presbyterian.

can you believe it? nobody believes i'm presbyterian. i'm presbyterian. i'm presbyterian. boy, that's down the middle of the road, folks, in all fairness. i mean seventh day adventist i don't know about. i just don't know about. >> a candidate's religion is a big factor in iowa where 6-10 republican voters identify themselves as evangelical christians. we have seen how they helped to propel mike huckabee and rick santorum. history shows iowa has not been the best indicator of who will eventually win the republican nomination. of the past six competitor primary races since 1980, the winner of the iowa caucuses has gone on to win the nomination twice, in contrast the winner of the new hampshire primary has won the republican nomination in four of the last six cycles. the winner of south carolina has become the nominee in five of the last six cycles.

i'm joined by the "hardball" round table. let's start with john. i don't know much about the seventh day adventist, but i knew they weren't thrilled with john kennedy's nomination back in 1960 because a couple of people stopped at my mom's door and raised alarms about it, from that religion. i hope they weren't representative. that's all i know. is that a bad religion to be in if you're an evangelical? why did he raise that issue politically? >> maybe he's down in the polls in iowa. he knows it's an overwhelmingly evangelical audience in iowa. remember when ted kennedy raised the question of mitt romney's mormonism in the senate race. this is not fair play but it's a device used to try to get an advantage when you're down. ted kennedy was down.

i think donald trump is panicking in iowa. maybe he should be panicking. >> it was joe kennedy who raised the issue for his uncle ted. you've i got the facts straight there. i remember everything. religion out or in, you can argue all you want, but it helps to be an evangelical or conservative catholic in iowa. we know that. pat robinson almost won out there, huckabee won there. santorum. people who can't win anywhere else win in iowa. perry? >> i think trump is talking about making the wrong case here. i don't think people are for carson because of the sort of tenets seven-day adventist. they want someone devout in their faith. carson talks about his faith all the time. he is very devout. in that way he is in the same huckabee and santorum bucket.

trump you can tell is not someone who spends time thinking about religion until this campaign. i think it is a mistake to go after trump. he is not going to win the campaign. >> it's not the affiliation but the devoutness, the fidelity, whether you are a man of faith. sabrina, is that your thinking it helps to be something in iowa? >> absolutely. what it helps to be is socially conservative. ben carson has proven whether it's abortion or same-sex marriage that he is a devout social conservative. i think when it comes to donald trump, he likes to put on this show. he is not worried about his opponents. he was reluctant to go after ben carson. if you look how he attacks anyone who starts to rise in the poll, try to find any possible weakness and exploit that weakness. he's done that with marco rubio on immigration. he did it with jeb with his dynasty with him being an establishment candidate. there is not much where he can go after ben carson. a lot of what they say is the same.

a lot of their positioning is similar. he is looking for anything to grasp. in iowa he believes that's ben carson's faith. it's unlikely it would be effective. he wouldn't be where he is if faith is a problem. >> it's fascinating. trump defended his remark yesterday. >> some conservatives claim seventh day adventists are not christian. were you trying to send a dog whistle to them because he is beating you among evangelicals in iowa? >> not at all. nationwide i'm beating ben with evangelicals. i don't know about that particular religion. >> ben carson asked for an apology. >> i didn't say anything bad about it. i just don't know about it. i would certainly give an apology if i said something bad about it, but i didn't. all i said was i don't know about it. >> des moines "register" poll said 32% think donald trump is a committed christian.

back to the idea there is no religious test for public office but seems to be unofficial tests out there. >> evangelicals take their religion seriously. they do focus on doctorate, not just issues. i think trump doing this saying i'm a mainstream christian, not someone off on the side. i'm not like a mormon or seventh day adventist or whatever these people are doing is a clever tactic. it's a wrong tactic but it's been used in the past. trump's desperate. >> perry, i studied a little of this. the interesting thing about america is we call the religions of episcopalian and presbyterian as mainstream. they are small in their number. the large number of american christians are baptist, evangelical. they are the vast majority of the christian community in this country. yet somebody like trump would

get it wrong and say i'm from a broadly popular religion like presbyterian. he got his numbers wrong. there are a lot more baptists. >> for the people he is trying to appeal to like the iowa conservatives, he is trying to take from ben carson, there is not a lot of presbyterian. a lot will go to nondenominational churches which carson goes to. carson is touched with the home school in a way huckabee was. he has a real appeal. cruz, huckabee, santorum is a much better fit than trump for those voters. >> ben carson strikes me as someone who doesn't like the hustle and bustle p public education. up next, 48 hours to go to the third republican presidential debate coming up wednesday.

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>> you take low-key people. bush said i don't like mr. trump's tone. we have people whose heads are being chopped off in the middle east. he's worried about tone. his campaign is a disaster. it's because i came along. i'm proud of it. so he's meeting now with mom and dad. no, it's true. he needs council. >> it amazing trump and bernie sanders, very different characters, wave their arms when they want to make a point. welcome back to "hardball." that was donald trump, of course. today bashing a politically wounded jeb bush. trump's popularity may be falling in iowa, but the national polls, he is up there in top. in debate in colorado, there is serious pressure jeb the one-time front-runner, hard for me to believe it, continues to languish in single digits way down there at 8% or 7%.

donors and long-time supporters of the bush family are expressing doubts about jeb. a ranger donor, a billionaire type said when he see him on television, it seems like he's stumbling. the bush family gathered in houston to support old jeb and showing solidarity as the third bush to run for the white house stumbles weakly. perry, sabrina, you may be too young, john, you remember it well. remember that debate in 1992 when george bush senior was debating that young lad bill clinton and ross perot the pain in the butt. he was so bored, he was caught looking at his wrist watch. that was a sign to all it was time to go. now we have young bush. we thought fresh-faced, wet behind the ears, already bored, already finds this tedious to run against somebody as low brow as this bully donald trump.

he sounds like he wants to get out of this thing. it really sounds like he wants out. >> he just sounded very -- we don't want a president who is whiny. that's what he sounded like that he wasn't committed to it. john just brought up the watch looking from george h.w. bush making the same point. i do think one thing that bush can think about is, i don't think wednesday is make or break for him. here's why. he is not very good in debates. he is not a good public speaker. he is not going to win the nomination on debate. >> what is he good at? >> he's good at policy. he has the hope trump, carson, rubio and several other people kind of collapsed at the same time and the party comes to him. he's got to stay in this race a long time and hope the other candidates fall apart. he's not going to win on debate. he is not good at debates. >> john, he ought to look how to sit in a chair.

that picture of him with his legs three feet apart is a weird picture. he looks like captain cornpone. he looks like a hick. what is that posture about? senator scott looks great. he looks like huckleberry finn. here is a ben carson supporter this morning explaining the carson appeal, which i find interesting. >> i think ben carson is a good, decent man. he is saying the same thing donald trump says only he's a little more finesse with it. >> what do you make of that? i never understood the carson appeal. he's slow talking, a gentleman, obviously of deep belief, but i don't get the spark of excitement for the next presidency. what is it? what's the appeal? >> i think his appeal is tapping into one specific faction of republican primary goers. he's made, built his candidacy on saying very outlandish

statements he knows plays well with the faction of the base. he certainly gained a lot, for example, off his comments saying he shouldn't be president. he was able to raise money off those comments. that's what saw him rise further in the polls in iowa. he recognizes what his brand is. i think he has a ceiling and he has a limited space. ben carson could carry iowa. that hasn't predicted though who the eventual nominee will be. an outsider like ben carson would kin iowa. it will have little bearing on who the eventual republican nominee will be. >> well said. democratic caucuses seem to matter more than republicans. jimmy carter came from out there, obama. let's look at 1992 called the oprah winfrey town meeting. there he is. look at it. that was an adroit move. >> i think you think about ben carson, he makes conservatives feel good about what they

believe, much like barack obama made liberals feel good about what they believe. you talk about jeb bush. if anyone needs an image consultant, it's jeb bush. he looks terrible on tv. he doesn't look presidential. he looks skinny and needs to put pounds on. get better-fitting clothes. needs to get sharper sound bytes. you can't -- these debates are important because they are the only time people get a chance to show how the candidates can do and competition. jeb is looking weak in these debates. that's why donald trump is all over him. >> i want to add, this debate is particularly important for him. he can't come away with headlines focused how marco rubio had the best night, marco rubio is the most formidable challenger to hillary clinton. that will telegraph to anxious donors to look elsewhere. >> he's got to show something. i'll be out in boulder for the republican debate wednesday night. the round table is staying with us.

up next, this is my favorite part of the show. tell me something i don't know. now they have to act. come out with something brand-new for you tonight a scoop. this is "hardball." [ horn honks melody ] well, well. if it isn't the belle of the ball. gentlemen. you look well. what's new, flo? well, a name your price tool went missing last week. name your what, now? it gives you coverage options based on your budget. i just hope whoever stole it knows that it only works at progressive.com. so, you can't use it to just buy stuff? no. i'm sorry, gustav. we have to go back to the pet store. [ gustav squawks ] he's gonna meet us there. the name your price tool. still only at progressive.com.

fewer republicans support the tea party now more than ever. according to a new glop poll allup poll 17% say they support the tea party, 17% only.

24% consider themselves tea party opponents. and 54% say they're neither tea party friends nor enemies. that 17% support is the lowest recorded since the tea party gained traction back in 2010. we'll be right back.

we're back. tell me something i don't know. perry. >> hillary clinton the other day actually said that someone had accused her of shouting, and she said men often say women are shouting when in fact we're just speaking. it goes to the point that more than '08 and more than any presidential candidate we've ever seen before hillary is like running on women's issues very explicitly and running as if women are the base of who she's

going to win by and men are almost the side. it's interesting for her. >> people always say women are shouting. i'm not sure. sabrina tell me something i don't know. and don't shout. >> i won't shout. donald trump in iowa actually has more paid staffers on the ground than any other republican candidates. i think that's fascinating because there's often a lot of talk about whether or not donald trump really has a real campaign apparatus, a real infrastructure on the ground or is he all talk but this shows you he is taking the ground game seriously, especially for iowa so he could come out with an early win. >> john. >> despite barely getting into the runoff in louisiana david vitter will be the next governor of louisiana and look for charles bustani to get the senate nod for the election or appointed. >> it shows you the value of clean living. thank you for the round table. perry bacon, sabrina siddiqui and john feeherry. when we return, an october surprise for everyone. you're watching "hardball" the place for politics.

let me finish tonight with the october surprise. now, some will argue with this. i don't mind arguments. that the race for president has narrowed to so few candidates this october. on the democratic side it's down to two clear front-runners, hillary and bernie-w hillary seriously out there as the favorite. but martin o'malley will have to fight his way into the list, fight like hell. that's two on the democratic side. on the republican side the list that seemtd ridiculously long this summer has shrunk considerably.

it appears to be limited to the following -- donald trump, marco rubio, and ted cruz simply because he, cruz -- more than any republican in republican history. i don't believe ben carson strikes me right now -- he strikes me mainly as an iowa candidate like huckabee and santorum before him. so if you're republican what does this tell you? it could tell you you've either got to shoot the moon with trump and boy, would that be an exciting proposition, or think you're playing it safe by going with rubio, the little mr. firecracker of the bombs away set. cruz i have to believe would be an inaugural kiss to hillary. america isn't mad enough in either sense 69 word mad to go that far. how in the world did we get from walker and rand paul and chris christie and joe biden and all the rest to this? the answer is that donald trump showed himself the best television candidate since ronald reagan and jack kennedy before him. attack trump and it looks like sour grapes. meanwhile, hillary clinton has proven herself all are pro on defense. attack her and you're a dead man. could be quite a general, by the way, if this thing keeps up. hillary versus donald trump. and that's "hardball" for now.

thanks for being with us. "all in" with chris hayes starts right now. tonight on "all in." >> so bush has no money. he's cutting. he's meeting today with mommy and daddy. and they're working on their campaign. >> whispers of a death spiral for the bush campaign. >> i've got a lot of really cool things that i could do other than sit around being miserable. >> tonight, inside jeb's latest troubles and why ben carson is pulling away in iowa. >> i wasn't always like that. >> plus, why donald trump today declared war on super pacs. martin o'malley on where democrats stand after the jefferson jackson dinner. and there has been yet another twist in the pharma bro saga. >> after this backlash i may support a republican now. >> when "all in" starts right now. good evening from new york. i'm chris hayes.