it is the top of the hour. welcome to "morning joe" live in washington this morning here in the set in d.c. columnist and editor for "the washington post," david ignatius. michael warren. columnist for the washington

journal, juan fournier. >> in chicago, we have mike halperin and willie geist with us from new york. good to have you all onboard this morning. here we go. >> this is the pregame show. >> it is. >> we have a lot to talk about. >> we're going to cleveland. it's a big night tonight. >> this really is the first day, really in the presidential campaign. everything led up to this. everything is positioned for. this it will be absolutely fascinating to see how they break out of the gate. did i mention that, how they break out of the gate. because you never know. you never know. >> and there are so many of them and so many opportunities. i also wonder if in some ways nobody can break out. it will be interesting to see. the first debate of the 2016 campaign is finally here.

seven will take part in a debate that starts four hours earlier. there's a lot on the line as candidates try to stand out from one another. the conventional wisdom is that donald trump, the man who dominated headlines and polls will dominate the debate. "the new york times" lead political story must likely make target since the popularity is built on style. opponents may find his yet to be defined positions difficult to attack. rnc chairman says he is not worried about things going negative. >> everyone brings lal something different to the table. ultimately, the real issue here is hillary clinton, barack obama and the fact that the country is not in a good place right now. and hillary clinton had a lot to do with it. that is really what the focus is. we're not going to focus on each other. i think you're going to see a republican party unified, talking about how to get the country back on track.

what are you looking for tonight? >> most candidates will stand there for 110 minutes silent. who can be ready when the time comes when they get called on to show energy and leadership? second is, some of the people are nervous tonight. they all think they played in the big time. somebody is going to be called on maybe more than one. they're going to come off as nervous. in a field this big, you don't want to overstate how big the stakes are tonight. you just can't afford to make a bad first impression. those are two things i think are underrated. obviously, lots of people focused on how to deal with mr. trump. how much do they want this debate to be about donald trump? how much do they want to spread other things around and let other people be part of the main

dynamics. >> one of the people that i'm looking for as far as being nervous tonight. i like him a lot. i might vote for him tend of the day. i don't know how he'll perform out there, whether he can hit that curve ball the first time he steps up to the plate is scott walker. ron fournier has vs. for him, be real. i think a lot of pressure. we always talk about trump. i think scott walker is a guy a lot of people are looking at tonight. >> the people who like him in wisconsin and they think he's a straight talker. we'll see if he can pull that off there. i go back to something we talked about yesterday, foreign policy. some of these governors have done well managing the local and state governments. when you talk about fighting isis, that's when you step into

the big leagues. i'll be looking for some of that from the governors. >> no doubt about it. you never know. we asked carly fiorina. you're so smart, what would you do with isis? and when with ask that question, you never know what's going to come out of their mouth. >> i'm not sure that they do either. this is a new experience to them. >> i will say with car lie fiorina. it wasn't. we have to kill them over there before they come to us. swhen she went country by country, talking about financial ties, what they asked for, what we didn't deliver. so you never know. there is always an assumption that governors make better presidents. when it comes to foreign policy -- >> this debate, among other things is going to take place in the middle of what president obama's called the biggest foreign debate policy debate of this presidency. each of the republican candidates is going to want to be tough. there's a great dafrpger in trying to sound tough that you'll overdo it.

you'll crank it a little too far. people will see they're not ready for prime time when he covered unions and isis. >> none of the candidates have military experience. i think the one to watch to see if he stand out is kasich. >> again, you've gone back to being governor who had issues like foreign trade issues. when it comes to foreign policy and dealing with isis and jihadist movements, you have to look at intelligence issues. that's one thing we're dealing are right now with the iran deal, trying to find out what they have. our intelligence is not as great as everyone wants to believe. go back to wmd during the george w. bush years. our intelligence was faulty. i think intelligence and issues of intelligence are key principles for a lot of the cabinets in the prep. they're prepping prior to the debate tonight. >> a lot of great advice here

for donald trum hop says act presidential. lord knows how far you can right it if you don't rub people's faces in your buffoonery. >> explain that. >> that's something we have to all deal with. he is personally a joke. he's not qualified to be president of the united states. but his voters who really have to respect what he reflects, he reflects a real and justified anger. >> i need to stop you after that first sentence. i'm surprised you said that. if i'm talking. do you really think a guys that been doing business deals for 30, 35 years doesn't know a little bit more about what it might say to grab jobs in

america and has learned a few political tricks? >> people in washington don't obviously know how to grow this economy. we have been in decline since 1973. >> you're making my point. the voters who you had on that focus group and who we talked about ourselves i really respect where they're coming from. but if donald trump doesn't -- if he just keeps rubbing our face in his buffoonery, if he doesn't show he cares about the issues, that he's bigger than calling everyone from another country rapists, that he can do more than say the system sucks, he has to be able to show how he's going to make the system better. if we can't ourselves separate trump from the real concerns that voters have and if trump himself can't do something about the people's concerns, then, you know, shame on all of us. >> i'm still confused. are you saying that he is not qualified to be president?

>> i haven't seen an ink ling that would suggest he's qualified. it's his job tonight to prove me wrong. >> okay. let's go to willie. willie, i guess kacie hunt is out there ready to tell us what is going on. >> she's outside the site of tonight's debate. donald in the last week or so has been slightly more by his standard measured in his tone. he said that he's not going to come out throwing hand grenade at people. he will react and respond if he's tacked. what do you sense he's been doing the last couple of days and weeks to get ready for this? >> i think the overarching thing you're going to hear is "i am not a politician." that's what they have seen as the primary focus here. you're right. he's gone away a little bit from focusing on attacking others. but he has seen potential attack lines back at any one of these

candidates that might go after him. so i think any other republican who decides they want to take on trump tonight is going to be at the other end of a pretty quick one liner in classic trump style. he's also been preparing to defend himself. he obviously has some questions that republican voters might raise. he was a democrat for a while. so how does he come back as a moderator? i think he's seen some material focused on that. you know, more broadly, willie, i will say trump is preparing for this. all these other candidates are also preparing for trump and as i talked to the republicans who gathered here this is really first time that all of these staffers, campaign managers descended on the same place. they're bumping into each other in the hallways. they're all sort of sharing laughs about how to deal with this. i think we've seen a shift in their attitude from trump is something that's going to pop-up and go away to, you know what? this is going to be something we could be dealing with potentially all through the

fall. >> yesterday donald admitted to nerves. >> he's been downplaying his abilities in which shows. he's got a few political tricks. >> another thing they won't be able to get out of the way is this planned parenthood funding issues. very interesting sound bites over the past few days which show maybe perhaps that some of the candidates are a little awkward on this issue. is that fair? >> i think that's fair. or at least they're not thinking about the right way to deal with this politically. we heard this from jeb bush. gets out there and says almost as an aside, you know, i don't know if we should be spending this amount of money. >> it wasn't an aside.

i think it really -- by saying that, i think jeb hurts the republican position on. this and by contrast, some of the other candidates had better responses. >> i think planned parenthood is a great opportunity for republicans that don't want to weigh in and talk about abortion directly and head on issue of abortion. you can talk about the funding of planned parenthood. i will tell you, i did not run around washington talking about abortion. i was pro-life. it just wasn't my issue. i always wondered why we funded planned parenthood. why don't we fund local clinics? why don't we make sure that especially communities that are underrepresented, et cetera. you draw it out in a way in a you make sure that women's

health is taken care. you can't talk about planned parenthood without saying i want to ban abortions nationwide. >> chris christie is an establishment type candidate. i interviewed him on monday in new hampshire. i asked him about that hillary clinton video where she said, you know, i stand with planned parenthood. he went off on almost a di diatribe. will she defend what planned parenthood is doing in the videos that we've seen? then he make a web video. and to me, it was sort of a study in contrast and two establishment candidates. >> let's talk more subtle advice for jeb bush. a nice soft touch. get over yourself.

you're the son of a president. the president of a brother, a man of great privilege. stop tripping over the family question. you know it's coming, jeb. you knew it was coming. like my old professor said, you know this question is coming like a freight train coming slowly out of the mist. you better be ready for it. jeb should know this one is coming. why can't he answer it? >> i don't know. i think it goes back to what michael is saying, maybe he's not as polished. >> maybe he has issues with it. >> that as well. >> like personal. >> you can still sit down one afternoon, write it out. and memorize it. >> i know. >> if you're in your heart not -- >> it comes out that way. he wrote it out carefully. it's about that natural. we will a problem with binders with romney. hasn't he learned a lesson?

this is really a problem. i think the person who is really going to rise to the occasion on this is dr. ben carson, former mayor. this is a question for him. also, just a little tidbit. he has not prepped, he said, for the debate. he says his life is his prep. he also said he's not going to deal with talking points. i think he's going to win. just because of what has done. >> because the problem is, joe, that these often these white men who are in their sort of middle to later years say things like my wife is a woman. >> i'm sorry? >> they say these comments about, you know, women that basically out of something like my wife is a woman so i understand women. they never really can connect. >> yeah. >> and talk about exactly why this is fundamentally important to the future of our nation. you know? it's on the equally pay issue.

it's obvious. for so many business reasons. it's not about -- your wife is a woman. that's good. >> new studies show that women are the head of households. more women are head of households. more women are -- >> make the decisions, yes. >> because they take care of men and children. women are important. >> it's just not really that hard. >> it's not. i think you have some very clumsy people that need to learn how to speak on the issue. and they haven't done very well yet. mike halperin, final thoughts? >> look, i think you want to show strength in this debate, you also want to show likability and i think you want to show command. trump throws off a lot the dynamics. i think not just physically but in terms of the fox moderateors, he'll be the center of attention. you need to make an impression to ni. for almost everybody up there, even for bush and walker, people like marco rubio and people like ben carson this is their chance.

we've all heard their lines. but for millions of people watching tonight, it's -- literally people have seen and will ask can he be president? >> by the way, ron fournier, your life touch advice for marco rubio, be a grown-up. what do you mean by that? >> he's got the same problem, challenge that obama had in '08 and bill clinton in '92 where he is young and inexperienced. he has to show he can rise above it. that gets me back to walker and a lot of the other governors. in '92 i had a lot more hair and less experience. i was covering a governor named bill clinton. i stayed in arkansas. he would come back. every time bill clinton would come back me and joan duffy and paul barton would all notice. can you say to him, you look different. his shoulders are father back,

he is slowly putting on the coatst presidency. that's what we have to see in marco rubio. that's what we have to see in scott walker. slowly learn how to be president. that is actually state of mind. >> chris christie. just say no. the next time you get the urge to tell us about your sex life, don't. >> yeah, exactly. >> and then the kasich -- >> you say don't be a jerk. on paper, you're nearly the perfect candidate but paper easily crumbles and burns. >> kasich on paper is, you know, should be a top tier candidate right now. but he has a reputation of being someone who is short temperaturered, doesn't like to hear opposing views. >> mark? >> i just want to take a little exception to the gentleman from arkansas and kasich. i think this rap against him that he's a jerk is really overstated. he has to get people to see more of what he's like. he's really toned down the jerk thing. i think that is a vestage of the '80s and '90s.

>> yeah, david ignatius, what is the one question you want to hear on foreign policy? >> i want to hear how in a time when u.s. interests are threatened around the world according to republican candidates, who almost all want to see a stronger u.s. position and criticize obama, how would you exercise power? this is a world in which sending american troops has not worked out well. what are the real ideas? and in particular, how do you want to confront iran? every one of the candidates will criticize the iran agreement. what do they see as alternatives? i'm listening and the country is. >> is there a particular candidate that you're looking at? does he stand out in this field? do you look at him and listen carefully? if you can't do that, i think the bush bubble is going to goin

fall. >> we have a lot more coming up from "morning joe" from washington, the chairman of the national republican committee reince priebus is here. chuck todd, former adviser to president obama's campaign, stephanie cutter will join us and "the washington post" chris cilizza who explains why he was wrong about donald trump. tomorrow we'll be live in cleveland to break down the big moments from tonight's gop debate. up next, we'll break down president obama's big speech yesterday selling the iran deal. i loved it. and the group he compared -- >> his worst traits were on full display. >> no, it was time. >> partisan, condescending, arrogant. compare the republicans to people chanting death to americans in iran. i don't think kennedy did that in '63. >> i think he was just fine and

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way before the deal was even struck. both sides or at least one side was extremely offensive. joining us now on set, white house correspondent for the associate press julie pace is here. hello, julie. president obama's going all out to win support for the deeply divisive nuclear deal with iran. at a speech yesterday at american university, he invoked the iraq war to defend it. he also referenced kennedy's speech in 1963 at the same place on arms controls talks with the soviet union. and he used strong rhetoric to go after critics of the deal. >> this is the strongest, nonproliferation agreement ever negotiated.

and because this is such a strong deal, every nation in the world that has commented public ly, with the exception of the israeli government, has expressed support. i recognize that prime minister netanyahu disagrees. disagrees strongly. i do not doubt his sincerity. but i believe he is wrong. it would be an obligation of my constitutional duty to act against my best judgement simply because it causes temporary friction with a dear friend and ally. i don't believe that is the right thing to do for the united states. i do not believe it will be the right thing to do for israel. just because iranian hard-liners chant death to americans doesn't mean that's all they believe. it's the hard-liners chanting to america who have been most opposed to the deal. they're making common cause with

the republican caucus. >> david ignatius, um, i would say there were probably 1,000 better ways to try to persuade people sitting on the fence than comparing republicans who actually put on the uniform and fought in war over the past ten years to the ayatollah and the terrorists in iran who are chanting death to america. why? >> it was a strong, well turned speech by a president who believes absolutely that he's right. the problem with the speech is i don't think it brought a single vote that he doesn't already have to his side. >> i think probably hardened the limit. >> i was talking last night to republicans whose views were hardened, who felt dissed and one point the president said the voices were talking against us, the same voices who called for invasion of iraq, you know,

basically, they're war mongers and sensible people need distance themselves. he has to decide on whether he wants a strategy to win 34 votes that, is to say to overcome congressional objection of the treaty or whether he wants to go for some 51, some broader measure of support for the agreement. right now he's playing small ball. >> you and april were talking off camera how this sounds like george w. bush's. april, you're either for us or against us line. you were saying he's tearing the bush out of george w. bush's iraq strategy. >> such a reflection of where we are in politics, stoking fear, dividing people, false choices instead of trying to bring people along. i'm on the fence. if anything, i lean towards the president on this issue. i have all along. but when i hear him say, you

know, if you don't agree with me right now, you're stupid and you're a war monger. >> you're either ignorant or a liar. >> that's what i heard. if you wants to bring people like me along, they would be against him no matter what. most of the republicans. there are folks -- this is a tough issue. its not black and white. >> it is. i was watching seef latv last n april. this is the easiest decision. if you're not us with, you're ignorant or a liar. and then the independent comes on who said this was the single most difficult decision i ever had to make politically in my life. and viewers launching at him. wait a second, he's going to end up supporting the president. yet, he says it's the single most difficult decision. you've had the president from the very beginning say this is easy. there's nothing to it. it's black and white. if you're not for us, you're

ignorant, you're a liar. or if you're republicans, you're doing common cause with the terrorists that have run iran since 1979. >> it does harkin back to george w. bush. there are republicans who do not like this because they don't want to give a legacy. another legacy piece to the president. >> that's right. >> that's one thing. but then yesterday, i mean, some of the words may have been changed. but what i will say is he did lay out the case. the problem is that if there is no deal, what happens next? sanctions could erode from other nations. what happens next? you have a problem with israel and iran. what happens with israel? >> i think those are great questions to bring up without comparing republicans that wore the uniform over past decade. and now serve in the senate with the grand leader of iran.

>> i'm sure there are no republicans that have done something equal on all sides. >> they're not trying to pass the most significant foreign policy piece of legislation. >> and when you and ron fournier say he is stoking fear and use the wrong words, he's not talking to a bunch of kindergartners. he's talking to people who are repeatedly flouted him on this repeatedly pushed back. >> adults who understand the issue very well. >> he's not supposed to be talking to me. he was telling me i'm stupid for not agreeing with him right off the bat. i expected this president. i expect this president to be better than the republicans. he wasn't yesterday. >> i think what you're seeing the president do, though, served him well. he's making a very pragmatic political decision right now. it's actually -- it reminds me of what he did during the health care fight where he decide philadelphia he can pass this, sustain the veto by one vote and

implement the deal that people will see over the next two, three years iran following along with the program, did he that with health care. get a narrow victory on capitol hill. and this law gets implemented and has effects on people's lives. he believes he made the right calculation on health care. he thinks he'll have the same outcome on the iran vote. >> you can call it a false choice since the president brought it up time and again. they said it is this deal or people that want to go to war. he did use the iraq war, i thought, as a blunt instrument yesterday. >> just to go back to two things david ignatius said, did he alienate a lot of people. i think the best case and most thorough reasoning about why the deal is better than the alternative, the people he's offended are not just some members of congress. but a lot of the democratic donors, jewish-american organizations and people who are putting pressure on individual

members of congress to vote no, i think the white house resigned to resolutions of disapproval, not approval, and just getting enough votes as we said before to sustain a veto. that is a very -- on a domestic issue, that may be just a hard ball political strategy and the best case is on hk. on foreign policy issue of tremendous national security to use rhetoric like that really does narrow his ability to pass it and then have the country feel good about it. i don't think he used that tactically. i thought he used it out of frustration. he doesn't believe they're making legitimate arguments. i think what ron said is right. he has to rise above that stuff. he dblt yesterday on that rhetoric. >> this is not only small ball, as you said, it is also short ball. this is the reliever. okay, listen, you need to get this one guy out. then we'll pull you out of the game. a president that did this in first or second year would have a hard time.

washington, d.c. is burning a lot of bridges pretty quickly. >> he is burning hot in his self-confidence, almost self righteousness about this. he saw himself yesterday in that speech as president john f. kennedy. the moment that kennedy started the top with the soviet union and gave a speech at au. and obama saw himself right there. he said to me later at the white house, i -- david, i knew john kennedy. john kennedy is a friend of mine. you were with him though afterwards. >> i was with him afterwards. i'll just say, i never seen the president more confident of his position as he said today, this isn't even close in his mind. this isn't close. i got. this and what he has to do, it's a test of his presidency the way he doesn't understand. he has to find language that speaks to ron, you, speaks to the country so that people will

share this sense that this is right for america. >> you know what? what's interesting, mika, is this confidence is for those who love him and voted for him in 2008 may be the best of his qualities. for those on the fence or those who don't like him, it displayed the worst of his qualities. >> welcome to politics in washington. he has gotten a lot accomplished. does he have reason to be a little bit confident of late. it was rough for a while there. >> i just wouldn't -- >> things are coming together. >> i wouldn't call members of congress -- i would not compare them to people chanting death to americans. >> i want to hear at least one of the 1,000 better ways to sol of this coming up. also coming up. >> can you do it without insulting. >> i know. i'm going to have you do it. you're so good at it. we're going to do that coming up. i'm going to hear you sell this as it should have been. >> coming up, mike allen.

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mike al slen is joining us. you went toe to toe with the republican field. let's start with the trump scouting report. you see the scouting reports on how bam alabama is going to do year. how is trump doing tonight? >> kacie is talking about how the campaigns are preparing for longevity. really delving into the style. and what campaigns found is the trumpet is meanest, most likely to take out the chain saw when he's attacked. he was making fun of rick perry. smart glasses when giving out lindsey graham's cell phone numbers. that's when he was on the defensive. so they're going to stay clear to him. the candidates have been told if trump attacks you, respond. but very quickly pivot to say something positive about yourself. all of these are being met for the first time by 99.9% of

viewers. >> you had jeb versus the world? >> yeah. so your comments early better him and the family question, all the other candidates are seeing opportunity. they're saying we can get him in a moment. any candidate who creates a moment with jeb getting him off his points or getting him to stumble, they're going to be big. so his straty is be the adult. try to avoid the confrontation with trump. but everyone else is going to lure him into it. they see him at this point as easy pickings. >> isn't it also, david ignatius the issue that jeb is too laid back. at some point, jeb has to step forward and become the leader, become the grown-up. >> that's a tricky one. you can be very relaxed, look leaderly and not scrapping. it's a crowded muddy field and measured pace. that may be the right thing for him. he has to look confident. he has to look like the person who could be the candidate and be president. it's that simple. >> because if he is really being hammered and you hold back, you

look weak. >> yeah. and she keeps coming after him. the education of scott walker. >> he needs to break out his smart classes. he's the least experienced in this field. he has to grasp the issues. he would be a plausible candidate. this weekend at the coke conference, frank once did a little poll and found he was its most popular person there. people link the profile. now he has to fill it in. >> how about christie versus rand? >> besides jeb and trump this is the most likely spat that we'll have. they're both totally very gent on new hampshire. so this is another place where the candidates are get the advice to not tangle with the moderator.

not look bad if the moderator is too fussy or exacting to back off. he looked too careful with the rules and wasn't just willing to get up there and talk about his positions. >> you better be good at it f you're good at it like newt gingrich is good at it. john king started the first question was do you mind answering the question about one of your ex-wives said you wanted an open marriage? and newt just glared at him. yeah, i do mind answering that question. he goes -- and said, but i will answer the question. that's a disgusting question to ask at the beginning of the -- it was -- it was a magic moment. >> yeah. >> and the crowd exploded. and john king sort of sh rufrpg back in his chair. if you go after the moderator, you better make sure you can hit him. >> he went after all of the media. make it bigger about us. we're just like even more from

the politicians. so make it about one person sitting in front of you. >> and newt won south carolina because of those debates. >> something else we discovered about the moderateors is they are concerned about trump running away with things making them look weak. so we're told they'd be extremely ridge nid enforcing the time. babysitter and the teacher on the first day. >> lots of luck. they said they were going to have a trump door underneath this day. >> he was the front-runner, right? >> oh, yeah. oh, yeah. the front-runners have to stay within time limits. not really the one to talk on that front. mark halperin? >> just say there is a big difference between going after someone from cnn in context of a republican nomination fight and going after someone from fox. i agree with you have to look for moments of strength whether it's versus the moderateors or other candidates. do you take a bigger ris income the context of this party going after fox. the other thing that i think that hasn't been mentioned yet

which is a huge deal is optimism. a lot of the rhetoric is angry. they'll be angry about hillary clinton. but if you look at the past debates and how romney did so well last time is in the debates. he was optimistic. he had a forward looking optimistic way of talking about the future of the country. you don't hear too much of that from a lot of the candidates and in the context of just getting ten minutes to talk, that i think is something that the smarter ones will do. >> i agree with you. being very careful going against a fox commentator in the republican party unless they bring bacall encombs. then it's safe. >> oh, man. >> i love allen. >> mike allen, thank you. >> marco wants to be sunny. we're told he's not going to attack, only respond if he's atalked. >> all right. still ahead, the u.s. might finally have a strategy to combat isis. david ignatius will break that down next on "morning joe." [music] do you like cougars? terry will you shut up! you are adorable. thank you. ladies your belts all snugged up?

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all right. 47 after the hour. the u.s. has gun air strikes over syria from a base in southern turkey according to the pentagon. a defense department spokesman said a u.s. drone hit a target in syria on tuesday. but declined to say the strikes exact location or if it was successful. the strike marks the beginning of combat flights from a key air base in turkey and a sign of deepening cooperation between the u.s. and turkey in the fight against isis. >> david, you're writing a piece. the u.s. and allies after several years of missteps finally seem to be framing a strategy for combatting the islamic state militarily in syria. even as they continue to pursue a political settlement with damascus. the syrian nightmare is far from over and supporters of the president continue to insist the regime will survive the turmoil. but u.s. policy now appears to

be working in tandem with russia, saudi arabia, and turkey. a rare alignment although iran remains a potential spoiler. >> align. long overdue. >> can you overstate the importance of turkey finally stepping up? >> this has been such a tragedy in syria now for four years. such a terrible loss of life. one reason is an open turkish border. jihadists have moved freely, transported money and weapons. it seems in the last week or so that there finally is an agreement between the u.s. and turkey to close that border. >> what is a bigger point for turk. >> i >> it's two things. the turks realized that islamic state threatens them. there way terrible bomb that killed more than 30 turks. the government said we have to do something about this. they also see a way in going after isis to also go after the most extreme kurdish fight irz

who they see as a threat. and the president has been in battle and sees a way to bring the party which suffered in the last elections. so many complicated factors. but closing that border, there's a 60 mile gap means suddenly stopping that flow toward isis and then you begin to squeeze. you fly flights out of the air base in turkey and you begin to pound, pound, pound and take them down. >> let's go to willie geist. >> you mentioned the four years of horror for syria. what could now in hindsight the united states have done four years ago that would have perhaps altered this course that this country is on? >> i thought the united states should aggressively train the moderate elements of opposition that existed then. there are fewer now. to try to get some alternative group that could some day govern syria. we missed that chance. and the situation got darker and

darker. i think now the russians, the turks, the saudis all sense that some diplomatic process backed by force is the way out of this mess. its begun to take shape. i asked the president about this yesterday in the roosevelt room. he said, yes, the window cracked open a little bit, finally because of this new strategy for diplomatic solution. >> julie, that's an opportunity the president's been looking for. widely criticized on the handling of isis for quite some time. >> absolutely. there really hasn't been a strategy. you see movements here and there and nothing comprehensive. liqu. you get the sense that white house and state department that they do feel there is an opening. what changed in russia's calculus? >> russia feels that the situation in syria is deteriorating so much that they're in trouble. it was president putin who reached out to obama, called him two weeks ago and said, mr.

president, let's talk about the situation in syria. can i ask the president about that yesterday? he said, yes. he is beginning to see the possibility that russia will be helpful. >> yeah. is russia moving in to save assad? >> it's moving in to save its position. as people in the government say, the idea is not regime change. we're going to lead the regime pretty much where it s but leadership change. assad is a magnet for jihadists as long as he's there personally, this war is going to go on. >> still ahead, whether you're a democrat or republican, we have your definitive guide to tonight's republican debate. president obama's former deputy campaign manager stephanie cutter and steve schmidt join us. we'll be right back. when laquinta.com sends craig wilson a ready for you alert the second his room is ready, ya know what he becomes? great proposal! let's talk more over golf.

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we found out that some candidates are preparing by using a high-tech device that imports noise from donald trump. >> what is your advantage over hillary clinton? >> she's disgusting. i mean both inside and out. she talks like a truck driver. >> what's your position on the

high stakes nuclear deal with iran? >> believe me, i understand stakes. it's my favorite food. >> i'm sorry, excuse me? >> trump steaks are by far the most flavorful beef you ever had. >> i'm asking about iran. >> when it comes to great steaks, i just raised the steak! >> let's wrap this up. your final pitch to the american people, mr. trum snp. >> trump steaks are the world's greatest steaks. i mean that in every sense of the word. >> yes, but have you tried the trump vodka? >> that's great stuff. >> coming up at the top of the hour, it is almost show time in cleveland. everything you need to know about the candidates before tonight's republican debate. chuck todd, steve schmidt and ryan pribus. >> it's just politics. >> look how happy they are together. >> yeah, funny. >> the clintons and the trumps. >> it's just politics.

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check us out today to see how you can become one of them. legalzoom. legal help is here. i know there's a debate tomorrow. i came in early today trying to convince lebron james to come back to miami. i just wanted you to know that. >> no! >> don't worry. it didn't work. it didn't work. >> welcome back to "morning joe." we're live in washington. here on the set in the d.c. bureau, david ignatius.

and join the conversation. msnbc political contributor and editor at "the fix," chris alizza. i was totally wrong about trump. that's what you write. >> it wasn't an easy twoone to write. >> you are not alone. >> there's another story in the "washington post." let's show this picture. and mike will tell us what we're looking at. the clintons and the trumps, such close dear friends. >> exactly. it's just two elite political couples just having a laugh, having -- apparently the post reported that donald trump was on the phone with bill clinton and talked politics with him and, you know, xwusjust a remin of how malleable trump's politics are and that picture

speaks for itself. >> we're also joined by partner at precision strategies stephanie cutter. >> hello, stephanie. >> great to see you. so the first debate of the 2016 presidential campaign is finally here. the stage is set in cleveland tonight to see the republican contenders square off. this is exciting. ten have made the main stage. another seven will take part in the debate that starts four hours earlier. there is a lot on the line as candidates try to stand out from one another. the conventional wisdom is that donald trump, the man who has dominated the headlines, will also dominate the debate. i'm not sure that's the conventional wisdom but okay. that's what a lot of people are saying. "the new york times" lead political stories say trump will likely make for an elusive target since his popularity is built on style. opponents may find his yet to be defined positions defensively attack. >> mark, set the stage for us. >> look this is not a small

night. it's a big night. but everybody's going to get about ten minutes to speak. and one of the things that the trump focus has obscured is who's improved as a candidate? scott walker improved as a candidate. has he improved enough? jeb bush started out with better candidates skill than people realize. has he improved as a candidate? the latest data suggests no. mike huckabee is going to be on the stage. he's the only one that's been in these before. as i said earlier, i think at least three or four of the guys will be nervous tonight. thats n that's not going to allow them to make another good first impression. >> another question that needs to be answered is why our cleveland bureau has the other bureau signing up behind mark halperin. so who are the stakes highest for, mark? >> well, i think people that question i think begs the bigger reality which is it's high for everybody.

tonight is going to get a lot of attention. i think anybody who makes a mistake tonight runs a big risk. anyone that fails to take advantage of the opportunity, if you say who has the biggest opportunities? i think mr. trump does. he needs to be himself. he said that over and over. but he has the capacity tonight with just a few lines of optimism and a few lines of policy, i think to increase his support rather than risk losing it. somebody we haven't mentioned is ted cruz. he is a champion debater. he knows how to use television. he may end up being the star tonight even though again i don't believe his name has been mention sod far in the show. >> we talked a lot about scott walker. he wrote three name down, three people that i think have to breakthrough tonight. they started strong. hot out of the gate. everybody was talking about them. and they disappeared.

trump has come up. he sucked the oxygen not out of everybody's room but out of their room. ted cruz, marco rubio, rand paul. they have to breakthrough tonight. >> i would agree with that. the one thing i disagree with is i don't know if donald trump sucked the oxygen out of rand paul or rand paul -- incredibly disappointing. >> what's happening? >> he tried to be rand paul 2.0. he tried have everything that his dad had in terms of support and reach out to the establishment. the rand paul people didn't like it. the establishment didn't like it. he was caught in between. it's like in a tennis game where you're not up at the net and you're not at the baseline. that is rand paul. >> sort of dead man's land there. mark, what about marco rubio? marco was the great hope, the great millennial hope. he has disappeared. >> so you're right. he has. he sort of went up very fast after his announcement.

i still think the line he has about my father who when his dad was a bartender, my father worked in the back rooms in a big convention hall so i can speak in front of them is a great line. >> what happened? >> he's just kind of gotten lost in the sauce a little bit. he got lost in the mix. i'm with mark. i think he's charismatic. he is really able. but he is kind of quiet. this is the first big, big, big stage he's going to have. i worry about him getting over it. >> i started sthag a year ago. i think it's too early for him. i think he should have stayed in the senate. maybe he'll prove me wrong. right now, it's looking that way. and ted cruz, what about ted cruz? what happened with ted cruz? >> i was struck on monday night in new hampshire. i was there in that not debate. it was a forum. and all the establishment or top tier candidates kind of did okay. not that great. i would say of all the people in this top ten debate tonight,

cruz did the best. he was actually not in new hampshire. he was doing it satellite from washington. he had a vote. marco rubio and rand paul did not perform very well. there were all the audio issues and delays. i think it was really made for ted cruz. he's so good on tv. he has a good command. i expect a very good performance from him. >> all right. so i tried this on stephanie. maybe mark halperin, definitely you. but do you remember chris christie the hug with obama after sandy and just how everybody in the republican party freaked out? it's like those are the kisses of death in some ways. look at trump. this is the trump thing. this picture is not going to hurt him at all. not going to hurt him. >> look at this. >> hold on though. >> look at this picture though. it looks like the clintons who are being friendly to trump with

his head back. he is the donor. they are the ones with the organization. >> this is bubba one and bubba two. there is something similar about bill clinton and the donald. >> except that donald admits it. stephanie? there is a warm, wet, meaty, hungry personalities. that's what the public sees in donald trump. we haven't gotten it. i think there is something to that. there is something clinton-like about his energy. it's not surprising. who did he call for advice? bill clinton. who took the call? bill clinton. >> certainly bill clinton is -- >> i think bill clinton called him. >> exactly. that's a good point. >> i'm not surprised that he is talking to clinton. there's no story or politician if you're thinking about running president to talk to than bill clinton. but i do disagree that there's a lot of similarities between bill clinton and donald trump. bill clinton, you know, is an

incredibly substantive person. that is not one of donald trump's strong points. i don't think picture, i think you're right, it's not going to hurt him. >> take any of the other candidates and put them in this picture. >> you know what the difference is, though? the difference is the beatles landed at jfk. the first question from a pack of angry reporters is to mccartney, what do you say to your critics who say you're no good? paul mccartney goes, we're not! why are you here? and all the reporters just looked down and were like -- >> it's the bankruptcy conference. >> and then they go wow, your hair. when is the last time you got your hair cut? so it began. donald trump. they asked donald trump, what about you giving money to hillary clinton? every other republican candidate funnels. yeah, i worked in new york city! this is a democratic town!

i have to make money! i got to win, so yeah i gave her money? what's wrong with that? what's the follow up to that question? >> or when he was -- >> the greatest similarity between them is they're larger than life figures. if you've ever been in a room with bill clinton or donald trump, you know they're there. you can be in a resume with 1,000 and somehow thinks presence in the room makes a big difference. they're also extraordinary television performers. that's a huge issue tonight. how many times is donald trump had a signature issue on national television under pressure where he's performed? countless. there's almost no one else on that stage. ted cruz and mike huckabee are exceptions when ch had some great moments on television. bill clinton the same way. we can run through our mind a kaleidoscope of national television appearances where he aced it. and he and trump like each other just the way romney liked trump. almost all of us like him on one level because he's great to spend time with. it's a special moment. and that's a trait that i think is a big part of what is fueling

his popularity. like schwartz neger. >> yeah. >> and that is -- there's another bill clinton-donald trump link for people that spent time around them like we have, around both of them whether it's at receptions or fundraisers or whatever, events in greenrooms before. >> you guys suck all the oxygen out of the room. >> you always hear that bill clinton makes you feel like you're the only one in the room. and it's just right there. donald trump does the same exact thing. donald trump can come you to and he does it better. joe, you're the greatest. your tv show. joe and mika. you are the greatest. i cannot -- i watch it every day. i just can't live without it. you're amazing. it's unbelievable. and then he can see chris cuomo and go chris cuomo, moi god, you got the greatest tv show i -- we watch it. i was just -- >> the whole show must be good. >> but here's the deal about trump though, like bill clinton, he believes it.

he loves it. in the moment he grabs it. and when they move through a room, it doesn't matter if it's the rich and famous or people in the media or politics, can you have somebody, hey, i'm here from demoin and i just saw your tower. he will stop. he goes, can you believe this tower? i'm from brooklyn. everybody said i was a schmuck for thinking i could build it. and he'll sit and talk to a schoolteacher from, you know, des moines in the trump tower for 20 minutes. take pictures. let me show you. you need to do. this by the way, go down and get a hot dog. they do share that similarity, mika, where i think david you're right. their personalities, no bad for campaign trails. >> well, we'll see. it's one thing to put your hand on joe or fred or whatever and say i love you. but can he project that as a

real leader? not as a kind of, you know, curiosity. he's been that so far. but as somebody that can lead the country. >> there's a ton of comparison lately which i've been stunned by. i admitted my misjudgement of him but to reagan. >> yes, i know. >> former performer who gets into -- >> we'll see if it stands tomorrow. we have to get chuck here. >> ronald reagan was considered of the full am. even through two terms as governor of california, up until the moment that the board started going blue and it looked like ronald reagan was president, you say i remember in the fall of 1980, david, he was still considered a buffoon and idiot, a reactionary, a joke. and then he won the presidency. >> he was seen by all right thinking people adds an actor. what he s. he doing on this political stage? he's not ready for it. he had an intuitive ability to

talk to the country that people didn't recognize in the beginning. and then bam, it was a sort of after burner. >> so we have ron pribus coming up. we have moderator of "meet the press" chuck todd joining the conversation. the trump effect, we'll see this time tomorrow if all of these apologies still stand. go ahead. >> chuck, there's so much to pick apart in this debate. it's remarkable. everybody is talking about trump. you can also look at scott walker. you can say he better perform well. can you say jeb better show up or else. you look at ted cruz, marco rubio, rand paul and say if they don't breakthrough in this debate, then they continue their slide. it's somebody likenedist last night to three dimensional chess. there are so many things moving on that board. it's hard to keep up. >> no, it is. and conventional politics would say oh, the front-runner is the one that's going to get attacked. and, of course, that's fraught

with peril. if it's trump and you attack him, he's not going to be a deflector. he's going to be a reflector, right? he's going to come right back. but i think all of the other nine candidates on stage have to remember that they are making a first impression. and that's what i'm going to be fascinated to watch tonight. i think a lot of the candidates will realize this and you'll see them not attack each other for a while. millions, may see 15 million tune in for this debate. probably the most that ever tuned in for a primary debate. the largest cable television awudience for a live news event ever. if you don't realize you're making a first impression and worried about how you're going to look with trump, i think you'll diminish yourself. there is a little bit of -- a little bit of that where the candidates have to realize it's about themselves for at least the first 30 minutes. >> all right. >> any concerns from -- that you're hearing from the trump

camp getting ready to answer policy questions? >> no. 60 seconds. the time limits favor trump on this. i don't think is going to be the place. look, i think the moderateors may try. i don't think this is going to be the place where you're going to trip him up on that front. but one name that i feel like doesn't get enough attention in the ten, there is only one guy on stage that has ever done this before. and that is mike huckabee. and remember in '08, who usually looked the best in the republican debates in '07 and o '08, mike huckabee. he may be the sleeper to night. >> you know chuck, thank you. that is a great point. mike huckabee is great on the debate stage. >> he's really, really relatable. that was always his gift. he seems like an average person. he makes jokes. he's funny. and i think chuck is right. i think we underestimate this. think back to the first time you

were ever on national television. you were probably really nervous. for a lot of guys this is the first big moment for them. >> but mike huckabee, watch mike huckabee. i think chuck is right. >> i'm watching. let's bring in rince priebus. >> let's congratulate him for having such a neat, organized process. >> he's not done yet. >> for a neat, organized process. congratulations. >> this could be anightmare, rince. ten people on stage? >> i mean, look, if you go back to the beginning, we wanted to do a couple things, guys. number one, we didn't want to have 23 debates. we're not. we were going have some say over the moderateors, we do. and we're going to give our candidates a set schedule which

we have. it just feels like we're in the depth of presidential campaign season already. and just walking up here getting ready to see you guys, i had that feeling like we were already back in the national convention. that's what it feels like here. >> we hope we can see you the morning after the debate. i'm saying this as a republican, i -- you know, you hear people go oh, it's too messy and too many people in there. i've always felt that's great for a party. it draws more attention to the party. and tonight if you have, like chuck said, 10, 15 million people tuning in to a republican debate, that could be nothing but good news. >> well, that's right. we have to be doing something right. all the interest is on the

republican side right now. the democratic side is a sleeper although joe biden issue is interesting. maybe that will spark interest in what is happening on the democrat side. it's a wealth of a lot of buzz and people coming out here. i think for me and my party, fwz containment, too. i agree with you, joe. having 17 candidates is important. giving everyone an opportunity is important. containment is a key word, too. we have to abide by reagan's 11th amendment as best as you can and make sure we don't put up with mudslinging and call it out when you see it but let jabs go by as well. it's a balancing act that we have to let happen. without us kind of killing each other at the same time. >> you know, you are are facing a difficult situation as a party chairman when you have to employ the same strategy against your 17 candidates that the united

states employed against the soviet union. containment the catch word this morning. we'll see you later on today. great to see you. we'll see you out there tonight. >> all right. take care. >> let's talk about john kasich. you follow kasich. kasich is the wild card. people have trump being the wild card. we actually know who trump s case sick a wild card. here's a guy that could blow up over night or a guy that could shoot up in the poll pretty quickly. >> yeah. he got in at just about the right time. he has had reputation as a fighting guy, a guy that likes to get into arguments. he does. it's an endearing sort of fighting mentality that he has. he likes to joke around with people. i think it's something that could really appeal to voters, particularly new hampshire. and you look at establishment

guy like jeb bush who is stagnated. if he doesn't perform, you know, kasich is the guy to sort of get in that lane and take those voters to new hampshire. he has a real opportunity. he is probably the least known or understood on that stage tonight much it's an opportunity if he can split it. >> kasich will be a hard candidate, i think for campaign managers to manage. you didn't really have one of those in 2008. >> you know, you can't change people when you're on a national stage running for president. you have to play to strengths. i'm not sure the format plays to kasich's strengths. does he have many strengths. if he can come across as the compassionate conservative on stage and distinguish himself in some ways against some of the people that are really running

to the right, let's remember we are talking about mike huckabee in 2008. the thing that really distinguished him was when he talked about, you know, we're all god's children. and one last point. you know, you have ten people on the stage tonight. and, you know, from a democrat point of view, we're look teg general election. so everything they say tonight could potentially be a democratic ad in the general election. so who's going to be running to the right? it is going to be a pac mentality and pushing people to the right? you have people on that stage who are pushing for a government shutdown who want to defund women's health care. these are things that are going to come back up in a general election. how are they going to handle that? >> stephanie cutter, thank you very much for being on today. still ahead on "morning joe" -- >> come on saturday. >> why president obama says israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu is just plain wrong

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over the last couple weeks i repeatedly challenged anyone opposed to this deal to put forward a better plausible alternative. i have yet to hear one. i've heard the same mindset, in many cases offered by the same people. who seem to have no problem with being repeatedly wrong. >> that was president obama speaking on the iran nuclear deal on american university and joining us here if washington, white house press secretary josh

earnest. also with us, nbc news senior white house correspond chris jansing. good to have you. josh. >> good to see you. >> some say the president might have been a tad bit condescending and maybe not the best approach to selling the nuclear deal in that speech. some might say that. what do you think? >> my guess is those are the same people trying to kill the deal. the fact is that the president made a pretty passionate approach or case for a deal that he believes is critical to the chief national security priorities which is preventing iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. i would concede the president did not pull any punches yesterday. >> yeah. i would say if you compare republicans who fought in the war with iranian hard-liners, that would be defind as not pulling any punches. was that necessary? >> i think what he did is made the point they are making the same argument that it's hard-liners in iran suggesting they should kill the deal.

there's no doubt they're maging this same argument. >> and he also said -- he said these are folks who are chanting death to america. he added that little phrase in there. >> well that, was a different part of it. >> no, it wasn't. i'll read you the quote. if those hard-liners chanting death to america who have been most opposed to the deal they're making common cause with the republican caucus. it was all one sentence. >> she has it written down. she brings the words. >> she has that thing. >> and they're making the same argument. and this is the point. the critics of the deal suggest that it's hard-liners in iran who are most likely to benefit from this agreement. they're going to get this wind fall of cash from sanctions relief. if that is true, why are hard line soerz aggressively against the deal? >> charles manson loved the white album. i loved the white album? is the president going to compare me to charles manson? no. i'm just saying. just because they have -- are both against a deal for two different reasons, one because the republicans are concerned about america's safety. the iranian hard-liners want

anew. >> i think the test really this morning, the morning after the speech for you, josh, what have you been getting from democrats and republicans who were on the fence? what are the comments you've been hearing since then? i know you'll break news with that. tell us. >> listen, the president wants people to consider the facts of this agreement. and i do think that the more people consider exactly what's included in the agreement and the strategy that's been laid out for shutting down every single path way that iran has to having a nuclear weapon and the historically intrusive set of inspections that will be put in place to verify iran's compliance with the agreement, the more people consider the fundamentals of this agreement, the more likely they are -- >> you have got new calls for support though? have you got it after the speech? >> there has been a couple folks. we saw senator king from maine, one of the independents in the senate announced support for the agreement. >> but the senator said there was a hardest decision he had to make in his life. while the president said yesterday to american university, people who are against this deal are either

ignorant or untruthful. there are people of good faith who can disagree with the deal. why does the president see this in such stark terms and why are those who oppose the deal either ignorant or untruthful? >> the reason that the president see this is in such stark terms is the president has spent a lot of time talking about this. this goes back to the case the president made when he ran for office in 2007. suggesting we should consider trying to resolve our concerns with iran, diplomatically. >> can you see the point that senator king and independent made that this is an extraordinarily hard decision for members of congress to make. it's not as cut and dry as the president says it is. >> it is cut and try. it's either us taking advantage of an opportunity to use diplomacy that, isn't just a better way because it prevents the united states from committing to another war in the

middle east. it actually is the best way for us to prevent -- >> i understand that's what the president believes. the question is whether the president has the ability in his mind to understand that reasonable people differ. if chuck schumer decides he can't vote for the deal, he is a liar or ignorant? if the chairman of the dccc came out, a guy who said he was going to read the deal before he made the decision. he's now against the decision as is nina lowy. are they ignorant? are they liars? that's what the president said yesterday. >> what the president is making the case is that we should try diplomacy to prevent iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. it is best way to avoid war in the middle east which has unintended consequences. >> he's good, by the way. >> yes. >> you don't have to go through this. >> it is the best way. this is not just about a president who is concerned about using force. he's demonstrated a willingness to use force in the past. the fact is this is the best way

to obtain equipment. let me say this one last thing much those who advocate using military force acknowledge that would set back the program by two, three, or four years. >> okay. >> the fact is this diplomatic approach would send them for more. >> but the problem is actually with the president's tone, especially in this speech. joe, you have a problem it with. you are reflecting the voices of many. what would have been since you seem to know so much about this, what would have been a better way to pitch this deal in that speech? >> that sounds condescending. >> i'm sorry. >> i'll answer your question anyway. the president has been talking this way for several weeks now. >> well, he has a good point. >> no he doesn't. that people of good faith can't be against this deal. that this is so cut and dry. i think it's much more persuasive. and david was talking about this earlier. not being so sure about it. saying this isn't a perfect deal. in fact, there are a lot of things in this deal that i hate. i'll tell you the truth. i said i wanted any time, anyplace inspections. it just wasn't possible.

there is no way the iranians were going to agree to that. there's no way they're going to agree to immediate inspection of new sites. i do like the 24-day delay? no i hate it. but it's the best we can get after months and months and months of difficult negotiations. so i as president of the united states had a decision to make. do i take that flawed deal and try to make it work and avoid yet another war in the middle east? >> okay. >> or -- let me finish. you asked me. >> okay. or do i throw it aside and listen to the same hawks that took us into iraq and start another war in the middle east and completely allow the chains to come off of the iranians and let them start developing the nuclear weapon tomorrow? that's the choice i made. it was an ugly choice. and negotiates are ugly. ask ronald reagan. ask fdr. ask truman.

ask fdr. it's not cut and dry. i think that's far more persuasive, david, than i'm wright, you're wrong. if you don't agree with you, can awe line -- >> i thought -- i listened to the president in the speech and after, the president so certain that he's right on this. he's just so confident about the details. it's almost his own enemy. twi i want to ask if you're thinking about a strategy that reaches out more, i mean to get more votes behind this. you're going to have to offer congress a way in, some kind of implementation and oversight, verification package where congress feels we're part of this. you know? negotiated by secretary kerry and the president that we had our misgivings and we feel like joe scarborough. but here's a package that helps us get onboard. are you thinking that as a slight change in strategy? >> david, i think it would be a continuation of the strategy.

the fact of the matter is every member of congress has been offered a classified briefing, two classified briefings now from the individuals who are responsible for actually leading the negotiations. those briefings have taken place. there have been countless numbers of individual meetings that the president himself has had with individual members of congress to describe to them the terms of the agreement. and that's -- >> they can vote for that's their part of the deal. we added this. >> tom friedman, let me just join in on this. tom friedman had a great idea. he said let's go ahead and attach to it a resolution that says if iran starts developing a nuclear weapon, the president has immediate military authorization to go in and take military action without coming to congress, without passing go to immediately go after iran. send a message not only to the iranians, but also to congress. if they break the deal, if they cross the line, then war is coming next. >> joe, i think you raise a good

point. i want to go back to the thing you said earlier which is the president's approach to this agreement. the fact is you cited the experience of other presidents that tried to engage our adversaries to use diplomacy to advance our interests. that is a decision for president to make. and that is a decision that this president made. congress faces a different one. the question before congress right now is not whether the deal can be different. the question before congress right now is do you accept the agreement that has been reached by the united states and the rest of the international community with iran or are you going to undermine it? and that choice is very clear and it is very clear in the minds of the president and should be very clear for every member of congress. either that agreement or it is without doubt military conflict in the middle east. and that is why the president paints this in such stark terms. the decision facing the president is different. >> you are far more certain than most americans when you say without doubt it leads to war. >> and nobody who watched him doubts his passion or his belief

in this deal. having said that, i'm wondering about the strategy if we can go full circle here. i can tell you our folks on the hill said that democrats and republicans alike were unhappy. they used a different word. but they were unhappy yesterday about some of the things that were said in the speech. even putting aside the fact that you got a lot of tough negotiating head on other issues like the budget and whether or not there's going to be a government shutdown. we can push those off. i'm trying to figure out what the strategy is. if you -- he deliberately went to american university, the same place that john f. kennedy went and gave a speech about war and peace. i watched it. i read it yesterday. the tone could not have been more different. i'm wondering what he thinks he accomplishes by being so in your face. >> the fact is i think the congress that jfk is dealing with is more different than the congress that president obama is dealing w i think we can all agree to that. here's the thing. this suggestion about war being the alternative is not just some

hypothetical strong hand that president constructed. we saw governor walker leading republican candidate for president indicate that he would kill the deal right off the bat, to use his expression. and he would be prepared to use military action on day one. good he's not the commander in chief. the chairman of the joint chiefs testified before congress that war wasn't an option they were looking at if the deal went through. >> john bolton. >> listen to the chairman of joint chiefs before john bolton. >> he suggested the only answer here is military action. >> john bolton -- >> joe biden yesterday -- >> oh, my god. don't even start. this. >> i like to cite the facts. we would bomb them back today zero whatever that means. >> martin dempsey said that war was not an alternative. >> and didn't jewish leaders the president met with say why you are presented this as the only other alternative? they find that offensive f you're for this deal, you're for

war. >> if congress kills this deal, iran will get all the sanction rez leaf that is part of the deal. and united states gets nothing out of it. there's no reason to think that iran is going to voluntarily curb their nuclear program by reducing the nuclear threat by 90%, by essential lly render a reactor in iraq. there is no way they're going to agree to inspections. >> right. >> what we do think they're going to do is they're going to go and continue the march to a nuclear weapon. we'll be sitting around this table and serve asking me, is the president use ready to use military option to prevent them from obtaining a military weapon? that's what will happen. that's where we're head if congress kills this deal. >> the other day was like a dance this is more like a goring. thank you for coming onboard. is the president watching the debate tonight? >> i it this president will probably watch the coverage of the debate. >> oh, come on. >> i have a hard time imagining he'll be tuning in. >> it's going to be --

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great time for a shiny floor wax, no? not if you just put the finishing touches on your latest masterpiece. timing's important. comcast business knows that. that's why you can schedule an installation at a time that works for you. even late at night, or on the weekend, if that's what you need. because you have enough to worry about. i did not see that coming. don't deal with disruptions. get better internet installed on your schedule. comcast business. built for business. up next, joe wants to say something. go ahead. >> no, tom brokaw just e-mailed this. and i know there are at least two of us old enough to remember this. david ignatius, remember cleveland is where reagan sunk

carter. i forgot. i had forgotten the debate was cleveland. >> up next, he knows a thing or two about highly anticipated debates. steve schmidt tells us what a candidate should and should not do on tonight's stage. no student's ever photographed mean ms. colegrove.

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...the iconic navigator. and get a first look at the entirely new 2016 mid-size utility lincoln mkx. your choice of mkc, mkz gas or hybrid for $369 a month with zero due at signing. all right. it's 48 past the hour. joining us if cleveland, ohio, steve schmidt and here on set, editor for "time" magazine, michael duffy. good to you have both. >> you've done this before, steve one or two times. you had to prep arnold schwarzenegger for some debates in california. he obviously got through those successfully. if you're sitting in there prepping donald trump, how do you do it? >> look, at the end of the day this is donald trump's debate. he's coming in here.

can he show the country that he has presidential baring? will people watching this debate see him in the role of commander in chief, not just chief provocative person in the community. it's an opportunity for trump to move beyond telling people they're stupid and morons, to be a serious person at a serious time in the nation's history. and to make himself a candidate for the presidency that people like you, joe, and a lot of people covering this today can see as a prospective republican nominee. >> it's interesting. about a month and a half ago you, mika, myself and a few other people were sitting around the table and everybody was laughing at the prospect of donald trump breaking out. you and mika were the only two saying not only would he break out but he'd be a big force. what did you see that i can say quite frankly very few other people other than mika saw? >> look, donald trump race is

happening at a time where trust is completely collapsed and very nearly every institution in the country. people in america are very mad, very angry at the establishment. they don't think the system is on the level. and donald trump is communicating to them, hey, i'm successful. i'll fight for you. i'll be on your side. and the things he is saying are things that millions of people across this country are yelling at their television sets every night, but that are crowded out in this cultural political correctness from being heard out of the political establishment. so donald trump has tapped a vein. we'll see now, though, can he continue. can he continue to grow these favorable numbers, and can he be seen as someone who can take the oath of office in the eye of millions of american voters or is he just a summer sensation tapping into this angry vein in american politics right now? >> michael duffy, is this something similar to what we saw

with ross perot in 1992 or different? >> perot was one of three. there was a little more of a -- less room for capering by other candidates and a much greater capacity to split a vote late in the game. if you're one of the other 14 or 15, how do you break out? what possible steps can you take without defeating trump's mania or making a mistake yourself? that's the challenge for all the oersh on the stage, which is this is trump's debate and should i step back or should i try to actually push through this. >> i think actually take him seriously is what people need to do for once. for once, get out of your own way and take him seriously. that's all. >> they haven't to this point. april, but it seems like they're having to now. >> in the past couple weeks, they have. the crowds, the media has come on and they're giving him a love fest because he's doing so many crazy things and saying so many

things. we have to wonder is he peaking or sustaining? that's the issue. i think people like chris christie need to step up and show that i have the wherewithal to be presidential after all the gateses he's been in, bridgegate and everything else, and dr. carson needs to be back. he used to be in the front ethrowing the bombs to have people look at him. >> do you really think any of that's going to happen? >> they have to. >> so many candidates have so much to prove tonight. you have chris christie who is at 3% or so. rand paul, people openly saying his campaign is coming to an end. marco rubio has disappeared. jeb bush has seemed flat out there. ted cruz, also, one candidate probably hurt the most by the rise of donald trump. who are you looking for tonight to break out? who really, really needs to have a good night tonight? >> look, we always overinvest

the importance of events that are immediately in front of us in a presidential campaign. this is the most monumentally important event in the presidential campaign until tomorrow morning when we'll have the next one. most of these candidates will prepare for this debate as a talking exercise, as opposed to a listening exercise. the way that you score points in a presidential campaign debate is on the counterpunch. by reacting. every big moment you can think about in a debate always comes with someone reacting to something that someone else said, whether it be lloyd benson to dan quayle, whether it's george w. bush with his head nod and smirk at al gore. it's obama's rejoinders to mccain and romney. this is his debate, and the other candidates will distinguish and define themselves by how they react to the situation as it unfolds live tonight. and they will react in the reflection of donald trump. it's just as simple as that.

>> that's a great point about the reaction. we saw a couple -- of course, ronald reagan tilting his head, going there you go again, to jimmy carter. also, the moment where george w. bush did nothing but look at al gore who got in his face and kind of went like that and finished the answer and looked at him like, weirdo. back off. >> you talk about who needs to step up. who can? i don't see one who can step up and really kind of get out of the pack of ten, and none of them, except donald trump, can take this picture. that's actually important. thank you very much. michael duffy, thank you as well. we'll look for the new issue of "time" magazine on the surprising joy of virtual reality. okay. we're back in just a moment. ou ! you are adorable. thank you. ladies your belts all snugged up? why do we have to buckle up? the pick up stinks with diesel. [ding] you've got to be kidding! oh please!

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welcome to "morning joe" live in washington this morning here on the set in d.c., columnist and associate editor for the "washington post," david ignaces. staff riter at the weekly standard, michael warren, ron 4 yae, white house correspondent for american urban radio networks, april ryan. in chicago, we have manager editor of bloomberg politics, mark halpern, and willie geist for us from new york. good to have you onboard.

>> it's a plegame show. >> we're going to cleveland because it's a big night tonight. >> this really is. this is the first day, really. in the presidential campaign, everything has led up to this, everything has been positioned for this, and it's going to be absolutely fascinating to see how they break out of the gate. did i mix metaphors there? how they break out, because you never know. you never know. >> there's so many of them and so many opportunities. i also wonder if in some ways nobody can break out. it will be interesting to see. the first debate of the 2016 presidential campaign is finally here. the stage is set in cleveland tonight to see the republican contenders square off. ten have made the main stage. another seven will take part in a debate that starts four hours earlier. there's a lot of the line as candidates try to stand out from one another because the conventional wisdom is that donald trump, the man who has dominated the headlines and the polls, will dominate the debate.

the "new york times" lead political story says trump will likely make a list of targets since his popularity is built on styles. opponents might find his yet to be defined positions difficult to attack, but reince priebus said he's not worrieded about things going negative. >> look, there's a diverse field, a young field. everyone is -- brings a little something different to the table. ultimately, the real issue here is hillary clinton, barack obama, and the fact that the country is really not in a good place right now. and hillary clinton had a lot to do with it. that's really, savannah, what the focus is. we're not going to focus on each other. i think you're going to see a republican party unified, talking about how to get the country back on track. >> mark halpern, you have written books about presidential campaigns. they sold in the gazillions. this is the first big event of this campaign cycle. what are you looking for

tonight? >> i think a couple underrated things. first of all, most of these candidates will stand there for over 110 minutes silent. who can be ready when the time comes when they get called on to show energy and leadership. second, some of these people are going to be nervous tonight. they all think they played in the big time. if you look at the past debates, someone is going to be called on and they're going to come off as nervous. in a field this big, you don't overstate how big the stakes. you can't afford to make a bad first impression. obviously, lots of people are focused on how to deal with mr. trump. that's up to the fox moderators. how much do they want the debate to be about donald trump. how much do they wand to spread things around and let other people be part of the main dynamics that get covered. >> one of the people i'm looking for as far as being nervous tonight, and i like the guy a lot. idealogically, might even vote for him at the end of the day, but i don't know how he's going to perform, whether he can hit

the curveball the first time he steps up to the plate, scott walker. ron fournier has advice for him. be real. your midwest roots and record would be great assets if you weren't so associated with talking points and flip-flops. >> ouch. >> a lot of what scott says seems to be prepackaged talking points. you can't really get away with that in a debate. i think a lot of pressure. we talk about trump. i think scott walker is a guy a lot of people will be looking at tonight. >> people who like him in wisconsin and have for some time, think he's a straight talker. we'll see if he can pull that off. i go back to something we talked about yesterday, foreign policy for a lot of these governors who did well in their home states managing the local and state governments. when you're talking about fighting isis, that's when you step into the big leagues. i'll be looking for that. >> yesterday, and you never know, we asked carly fiorina, david ignatius, you're so smart.

what would you do with isis? when you ask that question, we didn't ask it quite that way. you ask that question, you never know what's going to come out of their mouth. >> i'm not sure they do. this is a new experience for them. >> with fiorina, it wasn't, we have to kill them over there before they kill us. she went country by country, talking about financial ties, talking about what they asked for, what we hadn't delivered. you never know. there's always an assumption that governors make better presidents. when it comes to foreign policy, that's not the case. >> this debate, among other things, is going to take place in the middle of what president obama called the biggest foreign policy debate of his presidency. each of the republican candidates is going to to want to be tough in attacking president, but there's a danger you'll overdo it, you'll crank it too far and people will see they're not ready for primetime, which scott walker had problem when he compared conquering isis to conquering unions in

wisconsin. >> i think the one to watch to see if there's any way he can stand out in a way that his record does is kasich. >> well, again, you're going back to being a governor who has maybe had issues like foreign trade issues, but when it comes to foreign policy and dealing with isis and the jihadist movement, you have to look at intelligence issues. that's what we're dealing with with the iran deal, trying to find out what they have because our intelligence is not as great as everyone wants to believe. go back to wmd in the george w. bush years. our intelligence was faulty. i think intelligence and issues of intelligence are key principles for a lot of candidates irthey prep, if they're prepping prior to the debate tonight. >> a lot of great advice here for donald trump. you say ask presidential. your washington is stupid schtick strikes a cord with angry voters because it's true, and lord knows how far you can ride it if you don't rub

people's faces in your buffoonery. >> explain that. >> it's kind of the thing we all have to deal with with the trump phenomena. he's a joke, not qualified to be president of the united states, in my humble opinion, but his voters have to respect what he reflects. he reflects an anger with the system. >> i need to staep you after the first sentence, because i'm surprised you said that. we had a poll the other day out of new hampshire, pretty smart voters, who do you trust the most on the economy? trump blew everybody else away. do you really think a guy that's been doing business deals for 30, 35 years, doesn't know a little more about what it might take to grow jobs in america than a guy that was elected governor a couple years ago and has learned a few political tricks? people in washington don't obviously know how to grow this economy. we have been in decline since 1973. >> you're making my point.

the voters who you had on that focus group and who we have all talked to ourselves, i respect where they're coming from, i understand where they're coming from. but if donald trump keeps rubbing our face in his buffoonery, if he doesn't step up and show he understands the issues, that he cares about the issues, that he's calling everyone from a different country rapists, that he can do more than say the system sucks, he has to she how he's going to make the system better. if we can't ourselves separate trump from the real concerns that voters have, and if trump himself can't do something about the people's concerns, then shame on all of us. >> i'm so confused. are you saying donald trump -- you believe, ron fournier, donald trump is not qualify today be president? >> i have not seen an inkling of anything that would suggest he's qualified to be president. it's his job starting tonight to prove me wrong. >> let's go to willie. i guess kasie hunt is out there, ready to tell us what's going on. >> she's been looking at how

donald trump has been preparing. she's outside the site of tonight's debate in cleveland. kasie, donald in the last week or so has been slightly more by his standard measured in his tone. he said that he's not going to come out throwing hand grenades at people. he will react and respond if he's attacked. what do you sense he's been doing in the last couple days and weeks to get ready for this? >> well, willie, i think the overarching line you're going to hear from donald trump tonight is i am not a politician over and over again, as he's been preparing that essentially the message that, you know, he and those around him have seen as the primary focus here. i think that you're right. he's gone away a little bit from focusing on attacking others. but he has seen potential attack lines back at any one of these candidates who might go after him. i think any other republican who decides they want to take on trump is going to be at the other end of a quick one liner in classic trump style.

he's also preparing to defend himself. he has some questions republican voters might raise. he was a democrat for a while, so how does he come back with the moderators? he's seen some material focused on that. but you know, more broadly, willie, i will say trump is preparing for this, all of these other candidates are also preparing for trump. and as i talk to the republicans who gathered here, this is the first time that all of these staffers, campaign managers, have descended on the same place. they're bump nothing to each other in the hallways sharing laughs about how to deal with this. we have seen a shift in their attitude from trump is something that's going to pop up and go away to, you know what, this is something we could be dealing with, potentially all through the fall. >> that will happen when he's doubling you in the polls. kasie hunt outside quicken loans arena. thank you so much. joe, he actually the other day, donald admitted to a little bit of nerves which is about as much vulnerability as i have ever

heard from donald trump. >> yeah, he's been downplaying his abilities in debating, which shows he's got a few political tricks. >> we'll see. another in the they're not able to get out of the way, i think, is the planned parenthood funding issue. i heard very interesting sound bites over the past few days which show maybe perhaps some of the candidates are a little awkward on this issue. >> yeah -- >> is that fair? >> i think that's fair. or at least they're not thinking about the right way to deal with this politically. we heard this from jeb bush. he gets up there and says almost as an aside, i don't know if we should spend this amount of money on women's health. >> it was on the side, a gratuitous comment. >> it shows in many ways that jeb may be out of sort of practice at politics than we even realize. we saw this in the run-up to his announcing for president, that he was sort of struggling in some of these forums and other

things. i think we're going to see more of that. but i think it really hurt by saying that, i think jeb really hurt the republican position on this, and by contrast, some of the other candidates had better responses. >> i think planned parenthood is a great opportunity for republicans who don't want to weigh in and talk about abortion directly and the head-on issue of abortion and -- you can talk about the funding of planned parenthood. i will tell you, i did not run around washington talking about abortion. i was pro-life, but it wasn't my issue. but i always wondered why we funded planned parenthood. i'm going back 20 years. why don't we fund local clinics? why don't we make sure that especially in communities that are underrepresented, et cetera, you draw it out in a way that you make sure that women's health is taken care of. even propose increasing funding for women's health. you can do that, talking about planned parenthood, without saying i want to ban abortions nationwide with a constitutional

amendment. >> yeah, ip think as a sort of contrast to what jeb bush said, chris christie is another sort of establishment type candidate who has, i actually interviewed him on monday in new hampshire, and i asked him about the hillary clinton video where she came out and said i stand with planned parenthood. rh he really kind of went off on a diatribe, she looked in the camera and defend what planned parenthood is doing in the vi o videos we have seen? then he turned around, makes a web video. a lot of people talking about it. to me, it was a study in contrast in two establishment candidates on the issue. >> let's talk more subtle advice from ron fournier to jeb bush. a nice soft touch. jeb bush, get over yourself. you're the son of a president, the brother of another. a man of great privilege and advantage, so stop tripping over the family question. we ask the same thing, you know it's coming. jeb, you knew it was coming.

like my old torts professor said, you know this question is coming, scarborough, like a freight train coming slowly out of the mist. you better be ready for it. jeb should know this one is coming. why can't he answer it? >> i think it goes back, maybe he's not as polished and as ready of a candidate -- >> maybe he has issues with it, personal. >> you can still sit down, one afternoon, write it out. and memorize it. >> in your heart -- >> it comes out that way, like he wrote it out carefully. it's not natural. >> he really stumbled, especially when women are the largest voting block in the nation. we had a problem with binders with romney. hasn't he learned a lesson? this is really a problem. and i'm going to say, i think the person who is really going to rise to the occasion on this is dr. ben carson, former neurosurgeon at johns hopkins hospital in baltimore. >> he will be great.

>> this will be a question for him, and a tidbit, i talked to dr. carson last week and he has not prepped, he said, for the debate. he said his life is his prep. he also said he's not going to deal with talking points. i think he's going to win just because of what he has done. >> because the problem is, joe, that these -- often, these white men who are in their sort of middle to later years, say things like, my wife is a woman. >> i'm sorry? >> it's like, what? they say these comments about, you know, women that basically add up to something like my wife is a woman so i understand women. they never really can -- >> connect, engage. >> talk about why this is fundamentally important to the nation. equal pay, too. it's obvious for so many economic reasons. >> new studies are showing women are the head of household, more women are head of households.

more women make the decisions. >> their health is important because they take care of men. things like that. >> women are important. >> it's just not really that hard. >> it's not. they make it really hard. >> i think you have very clumsy people that need to learn how to speak on the issue. and they haven't done very well yet. mark halpern, final thoughts? >> look, i think do you want to show strength in the debate. you also want to show likability and you also want to show, i think, some command. and trump throws off a lot of dynamics because again, not just physically, but in terms of the moxmoderators, he'll be the center of attention. you need to make an impression tonight. for almost everyone up there, people like rubio, people like ben carson, this is their chance. we have all heard their lines. but for millions of people watching tonight, it's literally the first time they have seen these people and thought, would that be a good president? the stakes are really not overstated. there's not that many debates.

>> by the way, ron fournier, your sort of light touch advice for marco rubio. >> i got in trouble for this. >> be a grown-up. what do you mean by that? >> he's got the same problem, challenge, that obama did in '08 and bill clinton did in n'92 where he's young and experienced and he has to show he can rise above it. which gets me back to walker and these other governors. in '92, i had a lot more hair and a lot less experience, and i was covering a governor named bill clinton. as the came pain went on, i stayed in arkansas and he would come back. every time he came back, we would all notice and say to him, you look different. his shoulders would be farther back. he looked taller. he talked slower. he seemed more confident. he was slowly putting on the coat of the presidency. that's what we have sto see in marco rubio, in scott walker. i haven't seen it yet. >> president obama yesterday

defending the nuclear deal with iran, but it may have sparked a huge war with republicans. first, bill karins with a check on the forecast. >> beautiful weather in many portions of our country, but all eyes on taiwan. this huge typhoon, which once was the staungest storm we have seen in the planet this year, has now weakened slightly, but it's an immense storm. rainfall is a huge problem, and it's heading directly for taiwan. as far as the path goes, it's over warm water. it could intensify a little bit today. it's about 24 hours before it makes impact in taiwan and then it will go to china. we're expecting 120 to 130-mile-per-hour winds before it goes into taiwan. the timing is friday afternoon, friday evening east coast time. in our country, a chilly type rain for summertime. indiana through ohio, the grass loves it. we could see severe storms in the southern side of this, from atlanta to birmingham to sha charlot charlotte, about 19 million

people in the slight risk. i have to mention our friends in texas. 100, oklahoma city, but dallas could be 105 today. as you continue with your hottest portion of your summer. leave you with a shot of new york city. seeing beautiful conditions in the big apple. looks pretty nice until the weekend. big questions there. you're watching "morning joe." song: rachel platten "fight song" ♪ two million, four hundred thirty-four thousand, three hundred eleven people in this city. and only one me. ♪ i'll take those odds. ♪ be unstoppable. the all-new 2015 ford edge.

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he also referenced president kennedy's speech in 1963 at the same place on armed control talks with the soviet union. he used strong rhetoric to go after critics of the deal. >> this is the strongest nonproliferation agreement ever negotiated. and because this is such a strong deal, every nation in the world that has commented publicly with the exception of the israeli government has expressed support. i recognize that prime minister netanyahu disagrees, disagrees strongly. i do not doubt his sincerity. but i believe he is wrong. it would be an abrogation of my constitutional duty to act against my best judgment simply because it caused temporary

friction with a dear friend and ally. i do not believe it would be the right thing to do for the united states, i do not believe it would be the right thing to do for israel. just because iranian hard liners chance death to america does not mean that's what all iranians believe. it's those hardliners chanting death to america who have been most opposed to the deal. they're making common cause with the republican caucus. >> david ignatius, i would say there were probably 1,000 better ways to try to persuade people sitting on the fence than comparing republicans who actually put on the uniform and fought in war over the past ten years to the ayatollah. and the terrorists in iran who are chanting "death to america." why do you -- >> it was a strong, well-churned speech by a president who believes absolutely that he's right. the problem with the speech is i don't think it brought a single vote that he doesn't already

have to his side. >> probably hardened the -- >> i was talking last night to some republicans whose views were hardened, who felt dised by the president, as you say, likening them to hardliners in iran. at one pounint, the president sd the same voices talking against this treaty are calling for war in iraq. they're warmongers. he has to decide on whether he wants a strategy to win 34 votes, that's to say to overcome congressional rejection of the treaty, or whether he wants to go for 51, for some broader measure of support for the agreement. right now, he's playing small ball. he's playing just enough to win. >> and ron fournier, you and april were talking off camera about how this strategy sounds a lot like george w. bush's. april used you're either for us

or against us line. ron, you were saying he was tearing a page out of george w. bush's iraq policy. >> stoking fear, dividing people, false choices instead of trying to bring people along. i'm on the fence, and if anything, i lean toward the president on this issue. i have all along. when i hear him say if you don't agree with me right now, you're stupid and you're a warmonger when i know his former -- >> he said you're either ignorant or a liar. >> that's what i heard. and if he wants to bring people like me along, he's not going to gethe republicans. they would be against them no matter what, most of the republicans, and he's got plenty of democrats on his side, but there are folks here who are -- this is a tough issue, it's not black and white. >> it is, and i was watching tv last night, april, and he said the president's clip saying this is the easiest decision. if you're not with us you're ignorant, then, angus keen comes on, the independent who said this was the single most

difficult decision i have ever had to make politically in my life. and viewers watching that go, here's a guy who's going to support the president and yet he says it's the single most difficult decision, and you had the president from the very beginning saying this is easy. there's nothing do it. it's black and white. if you're not for us, you're ignorant, you're a liar. if you're republicans, you're doing common cause with the terrorists that have run iran since 1979. >> there are several components to this. it does harken a lot back to george w. bush the forus or against us. you have to remember as well, there are republicans who do not like this because they don't want to give a legacy, another legacy piece to the president. that one thing. but then yesterday, i mean, some of the words may have been -- could have been changed or he could have been more euphemistic in some of his wording, but what i will say is he laid out the case. the problem is if there is no deal, what happens next?

>> thank you. >> what happens next? sanctions could erode from other nations. unfortunately, you have a problem with israel and iran. israel, what happens to israel? >> those are great questions to bring up without comparing republicans that wore the uniform over the past decade and now serve in the senate with the grand leader of iran. >> well, i'm sure there's just absolutely no republicans who have done something equal on the other side. and also when you talk -- >> they're not commander in chief trying to pass the most decision knt foreign policy piece of legislation. >> predictably saying he's stoking fear, keep in mind he's not talking to a bunch of kindergartners, he's talking to people who have repeatedly flouted him on this, pushed back. brought in people -- >> adults who understand the issue well. >> he wasn't supposed to be talking to me, he was telling me i'm stupid for not agreeing with

him. i expect this president to be better than the republicans, and he wasn't yesterday. >> he's making a very pragmatic political decision right now. it reminds me of what he did during the health care fight on capitol hill where he's decided if he can pass this, sustain his veto by one vote, and implement the deal, then people will see over the next two, three years iran following, along with the program. he did that with health care. if we can get a narrow victory on capitol hill and this law gets implemented and it has effects on people's lives, it won't be overturned. he believes he made the right calculation on health care. he believes the same here. >> apple shares may be falling, but there's plenty to celebrate when it comes to apple music. we'll explain why. and we'll swing back out to kasie hunt live in cleveland. she'll look at how tonight's republican debate is playing a big role in the city's resurgence. "morning joe" is back in a moment.

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having 17 candidates is important, and giving everyone an opportunity to important, but containment is a key word, too. we have to make sure we abide by reagan's 11th commandment and make sure we don't let them get away with mudslinger, it's a balancing act we have to

practice without killing each other at the same time. >> good luck with that. that was rnc chairman reince priebus. >> he talked about the containment policy. >> i know it well. i use it for teenage girls. no republican candidates has ever won the cand dnsy without winning the state of ohio. they'll try to make an early impression in that state tonight. let's bring back in kasie hunt who is also going to try to convince us that cleveland is cool. it is cool, kasie. >> well, mika, for the gop, it's all about ohio, ohio, ohio. and in many ways, this debate is actually just a dress rehearsal for the bigger event. the republican national convention is really changing the face of the city, but it's not without some challenges. restaurants and shipping containers. trendy bars, luxury lofts. don't look now, but cleveland is becoming cool. >> you ever see cuyahoga sunset? >> no. >> you cloe cleveland is great

for the whole family? >> lebron james has helped change the persect it's a hollowed out part of the rust belt, but it takes longer than getting the cavs ready for the playoffs. enter the republican party and all the benefits that come when a city hosts the biggest bash of the election cycle. downtown, cranes are everywhere, ahead of the republican national convention, just a year away. >> everyone is asking that question, why cleveland? when they come here, they find out why. >> cleveland rocks. >> the renaissance started in the '90s with the rock and roll hall of fame. now they're racing to build nine new hotels around the convention center. in all, next year's convention could add $500 million to the economy. >> the week they were awarded the republican national convention, a few days later, lebron james decided he was coming back to the cavaliers. it ranks up there with one of the greatest self-esteem weeks

in cleveland history. >> we're just about three miles from downtown cleveland, which is being completely revitalized for the republican national convention. but most of the people who come for the convention are never going to see the other half of cleveland's story. >> been on the street since i was a year old. i had never been to the new ball field or the new stadium. >> steel, the nation builder. >> broadway slavic village is one of the many neighborhoods that rose and fell with the steel industry decades ago. it was hit again in the great recession. >> this is one that's been hit particularly hard by the housing and banking crisis. >> that empty lot there, three houses there. this lot where the driveway is, there's a house there. so there's four houses gone right there. >> demolishing crumbling houses keeps squatters and looters away, but it doesn't solve the larger problem. >> there's jobs if you look at them, but a lot of them are just

minimum wage jobs. >> it's part of a challenge for a republican party trying to expand its appeal in this must-win swing state. president obama won in 2012 by turning out thousands of african-american voters, especially in cities like cleveland which is majority black, and they can't ignore police brutality that have prompted protests. >> these are issues we as republicans can and should talk about. we have solutions. we have to respond, having the criminal justice system work. >> city leaders say the development of downtown will eventually lift everybody. >> the core gets white hot, and as you go, people, the adjoining areas continue to grow. >> for now, it's a tale of two cities. one booming and one struggling just to survive. >> i mean, the money they're putting out downtown, yes, some of it could be spent in the neighborhoods to make things better. but that's the way the politics

go, i guess. >> now, the two forces for good here in cleveland, the republicans at this point and lebron james and his cleveland cavaliers might actually find themselves in unexpected tension next year if lebron can manage to take the cavs to the finals, you're looking at late june before republicans can get into the arena to organize their convention. not all sunshine and roses for both of them at this point, joe. >> thanks so much, kasie. let me ask you quickly about tonight. you talk about an interesting dynamic happening in the hallways of the convention center and some of the hotels where the candidates are staying. it's not everybody against everybody. a new sort of camaraderie has developed between most of the camps. what is it? >> it's interesting, joe. it's the first time we have seen all of the staffers for all of the campaigns at the same place at the same time.

everyone rubbing elbows in the handful of hotels in downtown cleveland. it's sort of donald trump versus everybody else. all of these republicans who would normally be at everybody's threats, scott walker versus jeb bupsh, for example, everyone is looking at themselves and saying how are we going to deal with this guy? a very interesting dynamic of we're all in this together against this force that no one anticipated. >> wow. all right, thank you so much, kasie. greatly appreciated. >> let's bring in the senior writer of the weekly standard. john mccormack. you say something interesting in a sweet, a recent tweet, where you say there's so many people in the field that anything can happen, including a liberal republican emerging. moderate to liberal republican emerging in first place. >> that liberal republican so far might be donald trump. a lot of his fans aren't right wing. even john kasich could come out. all it takes to be a front runner is to get in the high teens, low 20s. when jeb bush was in the front, there was no front runner.

a real front runner looks like george bush when he was in the 60s. i would look at rubio, who is the most naturally talented and charismatic. >> what happened to rubio? where he has gone? >> all the oxygen has gone to trump. if rubio is going to break out, it has to happen in the debates. it might not happen tonight, but it has to happen soon. >> you think that's a real possibility? >> certainly. he's definitely the most talented if he can connect and wow everyone as he's capable of. >> is the pressure on rubio? does he really need to break out tonight? >> he's got to break out in some debate. if it doesn't happen now, it has to happen in september. one a month. rnc thought they would make them shorter,orderly. >> there's an article talking about the end of rand paul's campaign. what happened to his campaign? >> the case was his ideal situation was that there was relative peace abroad and a financial collapse at home, and

the idea of a gold standard would come back en vogue. but the rise on isis, relatively good economy, at least the stock market has gin. i think that's his biggest challenge. with the front-runners polling in the teens, he could still break out. >> david, what are you looking for tonight? >> i can't shake the notion this is less a campaign right now than a reality tv show. i mean, i'm waiting to watch "survivor" and see who stays on the island. i think donald trump, it's no accident he's doing well, because he knows how to play the reality tv thing. after we reduce the field tonight and a couple future debates, then we'll begin to get down to real campaigning, real politics, establishing who these candidates are and their positions. tonight, a great show. i can't wait for the entertainment, but i do think we're going to be watching "survivor." >> i totally agree. >> let's go back to october of 1980. only you and i remember this,

maybe mika because her father had a stake in this debate as well. we go back to cleveland, ohio, a few weeks before the election in 1980. ronald reagan versus jimmy carter. this race was deadlocked from labor day forward. it looked like it was going to be deadlocked and most of the smart money remained on jimmy carter until this debate. >> next tuesday is election day. next tuesday, all of you will go to the polls and stand there in the polling place and make a decision. i think when you make that decision, it might be well if you would ask yourself, are you better off than you were four years ago? >> that was, david ignatius, joe namath in the super bowl. >> has there ever been a head of hair like that? >> i don't think so. >> he did close the deal in that debate. it was powerful. >> and it was in cleveland. and we will be in cleveland

tonight. >> up next on "morning joe," the economy is sure to be the focus of tonight's republican debate, or one of the focuses. we'll take a look at the latest jobs numbers released just moments ago, and how they could factor in. we'll be right back. it's evil. and ladders. sfx: [screams] they have all those warnings on 'em. might as well say... 'you're gonna die, jeff.' you hired someone to clean the gutters. not just someone. angie's list helped me find a highly rated service provider to do the work at a fair price. ♪ everyone can shop, but members get more with reviews, live customer support, and better pricing. join today. when broker chris hill stays at laquinta and fires up free wi-fi, with a network that's now up to 5 times faster than before you know what he can do? let's see if he's ready. he can swim with the sharks! book your next stay at lq.com!

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[brakes screech] we need resuscitation. mouth-to-mouth resuscitation. hurry up! [laughing] all right, it's time now for business before the bell with cnbc's brian sullivan. what are you looking at? >> jobs. in fact, just a moment ago on the back of kasie's excellent piece on cleveland. ohio's unemployment, 5.2%. national, 5.3%. columbus has been booming in part because of the ohio state university. we got weekly jobless claims that were slightly better than average. nothing to write home about. tomorrow is the big day for jobs. tomorrow morning is the monthly pay roll number. every month, we dig into these figures. this is going to be key, guys, because if this number comes in strong, the federal reserve is going to be more likely in september to raise interest rates for the first time in nine

years. you brought up the reagan clip. it feels like that long since we had an interest rate increase. >> if they do that, brian, time for everyone in the market to run for the hills, right? >> no. >> why? >> historically, i looked at the '90s and 2000s just a couple days ago for my own show, 2:00 eastern, by the way, on cnbc. >> thank you, that was helpful. >> stocks have done well in interest rate increases. you have to say, why are we raising rates? because the economy is getting better. plus, we're talking about raising rates from effectively zero to a quarter of 1%. it's not like paul volcker in 1981 jacking up rates. anyway, apple music, 11 million trial subscribers and green mountain, the company that makes all the single-serve coffee, stocks down 30% this morning. sales tanking. they're laying a bunch of people off. maybe people's fatigue for the coffee pod has grown. by the way, a group of whales is also called a pod. >> that's really good. and your show is on at 2:00

today. brian sullivan, thanks so much. more "morning joe" straight ahead. everyone loves the picture i posted of you. at&t reminds you it can wait. just in case you were wondering what cheerios are made of whole. grain. oats.

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you don't want to miss tomorrow's "morning joe." we'll be live from cleveland with a look at all the key

moments and takeaways from tonight's big debate. among the guests, rick santorum who is part of the first debate. also, chris matthews here with his analysis. >> we'll be in a bar. >> in a bar, calling donald. i'm pretty sure donald is going to show up or call. >> coming up next, what if anything did we learn today. but not every insurance company understands the life behind it. those who have served our nation. have earned the very best service in return. ♪ usaa. we know what it means to serve. get an auto insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life.

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issues, pundits, politicians. we here at the show left no target undissemboweled. in facts, you're still walking around with a belly full of vis raw, know this. we didn't forget you. we'll put it all up on the web. and by the way, it wasn't just eviscerating. we demolished, crushed. we annihilated things. i can remember one night. even the hulk was like, hey, dude, slow down. >> welcome back to "morning joe." by the way, jon stewart's last show, along with everything else going on. time to talk about what we learned. what are you looking forward to tonight? >> whether donald trump plays it straight. i think he might want to go that route instead of being a bombastic person he's been so far. i don't think he's going to attack anybody else unless he's attacked first. we'll have to see. >> david. >> i have learned that watch

whether barack obama is going to try to reach out to a broader network of people to support his iran deal. so proud of it, so convinced it's right, but he's got to bring people onside so he gets more votes for it. >> i was with josh earnest until he told me the president is not watching the debate. now i see through what he says and i can't believe him because he's watching. >> along david's lines, i am asking whether he's going to reach out or not, but what i learned from josh as he was leaving is this is actually a strategy to put steel in the spine of democrats and he's going to try to ram this through the same way he rammed through health care. and it's one thing to do that on a huge domestic issue. i just don't know how one of the most significant foreign policy deals of our time gets passed on such harshly partisan grounds. maybe he feels that's the only way. >> tomorrow we're live in cleerld. what a big night tonight. we look forward to joining you tomorrow morning.

if it's way too early what time is it? >> "morning joe." stick around. "the rundown" is next. good morning, i'm jose diaz-balart. we start "the rundown" with breaking news on missing malaysia airlines flight mh370. malaysia's transport minister said new aircraft debris including a plane window has been found on the coast of reunion island in the west indian ocean. the same area where a wing fragment was found, the fragment that officials say now came from mh370. the transport minister spoke just a short time ago about the new debris that was found. >> plane window and also some aluminum foil. many items. i can't itemize one by one, but many collected and we have sent to the authorities. but i cannot