[captioning made possible by nbc universal] this is the "the chris matthews show." >> i can hear you! >> a time for change has come! >> the latest on romney. the latest conservative hero, the last man standing against mitt romney is newt gingrich. does newt have the stuff and the cash to carry the anti-romney fight to the end. in your heart, you know he's right. that was the goldwater slogan. this year, will conservatives turn away from romney? will their hearts convince them newt is one of them. and finally, may day, may day. 70 years ago, the sneak attack on pearl harbor, the day f.d.r.

said would live in infamy. now is iran the biggest threat facing barack obama and the rest world. i'm andrea mitchell in for chris matthews today and welcome to the show. with us today, joe klein with "time magazine," gillian tett with the "financial times," the "new york times," helen cooper and john heilemann, "new york magazine." for weeks, we have witnessed the rise and fall of the un-romney, the bachmanns, the canes and the perrys and now, newt gingrich. no one predicted this. even though they've focused on beating barack obama, the g.o.p. far right seems to want beginningerish. some analysts say that the hard right sees in newt's tough talk another barry goldwater. >> in this free nation, we do not choose to be ruled, we elect to be governed. >> and the right does seem to think that gingrich is one of them. he was a conservative hero of the 1994 contract with america

which swept him to the speakership. but there is another side of the newt ledger. he was once pro choice, saw evidence of climate change, was outspoken against big cuts to medicare, all of which is confounding to mitt romney, the guy who conventional wisdom has considered the eventual nominee. joe, you have a cover story, "time magazine," why can't they love mitt romney? >> there's the obvious flip-flopping on all these issues but there are two other reasons. >> i was a rick santorum event in central iowa with seven other people, actually, and i was asking them why they couldn't support romney and several to me, he's a big corporate guy. the republican party has become far more populist and working class than it was in the past. and there's a passion gap. republicans really want to have somebody who is willing to fight

for their position. however irrationally. >> john, you're at work on your book on the campaign. what is it about mitt romney they can't fall in love with him? >> i think joe's answers are good answers and i do think there is -- this thing of wanting someone, we read in polls all the time that republicans want someone who can beat president obama. that's clear. they care about electability, but they also want someone who can beat president obama up. and we've seen that, whether it's been, like, in the case of donald trump. he got in the president's case. all of these candidates for a moment look like they're the one who can give president obama a bloody nose and mitt romney, for all of his skill, he doesn't have that thing. he's not the brawler and a lot of republicans at the base level want that. >> the white house has long thought mitt romney was the guy. they've aimed all of their planning at him. are they beginning to doubt that or do they think mitt will have the nomination? >> they still think it will be

mitt romney but they are loving every second of this. for the last few months when we've been going through all these different candidates, i remember sitting next to a white house official a couple of months ago when they got the results of the florida straw poll and he looked at his blackberry and looked up and started grinning and said, guess what, herman cain won the florida straw poll. they love this. listening toing joe talk about the passion gap. at the same time, i was talking to a campaign official last week who kept talking about, you know, the reality is that the republicans are very, very passionate but they're very, very passionate about wanting obama to lose. what they're not passionate about is mitt romney. >> gillian, are republicans hurting themselves by roughing up mitt romney who most people think would be the most effective candidate in a general election against barack obama? >> here's a strange thing. one of the crucial points joe makes in his piece is that mitt

romney is aspiring to run america in a pragmatic, practical way and on one level, people are saying, yes, we want good, efficient government, but on the other hand they want ideological passion. by flip-flopping back and forth, it's like the gal or guy in high school who's saying, i can't decide who i'm going to date, and it destroys the sense of seriousness and purpose. >> makes it hard to fall in love. here are the numbers. there's a graphic in your article, joe, called the ebb and flow of romney's conservative credentials. tracing his views from 1994 to today. there are four lines -- abortion, guns, climate change, gay marriage, up and down, up and down, and romney is sensitive about this. listen to how he denied it. >> you have been on both sides of some issues and there's videotape of you going back years speaking about different issues -- climate change, abortion, immigration, gay

rights. how can voters trust what they hear from you today is what you will believe if you win the white house? >> brett, your list is just not accurate. one, we're going to have to be better informed about my views on issues. >> gee. joe, you say in your piece that he is pretending to be more conservative than he really is. you used the word "pretend." >> my sense of the guy is he has never run as who he actually is ever in any way. when he ran for senate in forachusetts and then governor, he was more liberal than he actually is on social issues. he was a bishop of the mormon church and took mormon positions. he counseled women against having abortions. now, he governed as a moderate and now he's become extremely conservative on a whole host of public policy issues. it's fine to change your opinion on one or two issues. but he has changed his opinion

on absolutely everything. >> john, you write in this week in "new york magazine," "until last week, team romney was calmly asserting gingrich would collapse but intends to speed that outcome by bringing down a 10 ton hammer on gingrich's head. they'll attach gingrich as a washington insider and a number of flip-flops and conservative apostasies that make their own guy seem picayune." john? >> they are taking newt gingrich seriously. let's be clear about one thing, the romney campaign has always fought on the basis of history that there's no way in which he would start as the frontrunner and cruise to the nomination. every nominee in both parties has a big challenge. nature makes it happen and they've known at some point that there would be a person they had to slay. in some ways, it's good for

them. because if romney skated into the nomination, it would be a problem. you need to slay a dragon to be the large character you need to be. >> it's like obama beating hillary clinton. >> and everybody has had one of those. that's the romney campaign looks at gingrich and they're concerned because they can see a world in which newt gingrich wins iowa, wins south carolina. he's ahead by 30 points in right now. there's not many scenarios where mitt romney, given his money, organizational strength, where he can't out-last somebody but losing three of the first four contests, including florida, that is how mitt romney loses and it could happen for newt gingrich. >> gillian, look at newt gingrich. he explains he's not a lobbyist because he was a celebrity making so much money, i was making $60,000 on speeches. >> if you're g going to accuse mitt romney on flip-flopping, by golly do you have an easy time with newt gingrich, as well. both candidates are flawed in terms of their track record.

to many, the question is, they'll see a rival of newt and the surge bring out the aggressive nature of mitt romney. it is a motion he can show passion and fight because as you say, every time you have a presidential race, you need to have somebody trying to slay a dragon and maybe this is the moment he starts to shine. >> but mitt romney, now, is going for iowa. this is the big gamble. last time it didn't work for him. but he's making the plunge. >> it's such a gamble because if he goes for it -- he's fine if he goes for it and loses iowa, he didn't try. but going for iowa and having gingrich beat him there, he'll look like a loser. it's so interesting looking at the two men side by side and you talk so much about both of them flip-flopping but newt gingrich ends up looking far more authentic than mitt romney does and i think that's a big problem for romney. >> by the way, i think the

romney people made that decision one week too soon. >> let's bottom line it, joe. are they eventually going to fall in love with mitt romney or overcome their problems and go for newt? >> problem with newt is, already, in interviews this week, he's referring to himself as newt and also as we. you could feel the helium filling his head and he'll explode. >> gillian, romney, newt? >> i think romney will come through in the end but without a lot of passion. >> helene? >> i'm going for newt. >> the smart money is on romney. >> before we break, newt was a favorite "saturday night live" target in his house speaker days. comedian chris farley really captured his bulldozer approach to legislating. >> let's go, let's go, let's go, mr. delay. >> motion massachusetts no longer be a state. >> aye!

>> farley was so identified with newt that when the real newt was celebrating the first 100 days of his g.o.p. congress in 1995, his chief lieutenant had a big surprise for him. >> we'd like to introduce the speaker of the house, the gentleman from georgia, newt gingrich. [applause] [cheers and applause] >> all right. here we go. we're here today to help celebrate the first 100 days of the republican controlled congress! let's get to it. let's show america how many bills a republican congress with pass 10 minutes when we're not hampered by bizarre, weird democrats. let's go, let's go, let's go, we're burning daylight. 832, keep reporters away from my

mother. what do you say? >> aye! >> how about even though we have nothing to do with it, we take credit for ending the baseball strike? >> aye! >> how about a second contract with america. i'm not telling you what it is. in this envelope, you decide. favor? all right! here you go. hail to the chief, hail to the speaker. >> we miss him. and when we return, 70 years ago this week, the japanese planes that appeared in pearl harbor forever changed america. scoops and predictions from the notebooks of these reporters.

>> welcome back.

70 years ago this week, the planes with the red suns on their wings appeared in the sunday morning skies over pearll harbor. political divisions over getting into world war ii dissolved. 70 years later, while u.s. involvement in iraq and afghanistan winding down, the next big challenge will be iran. conservatives and democrats are president to take a tougher line. they see this as a confrontation the u.s. must not dodge. this is a president strong on anti-terror policy but republicans see iran as a vulnerability. >> iran is historically, it comes up in american presidential elections, as it did three years ago in 2008. for president obama now, he's under a lot of pressure to look tough on iran. the problem is that the united states does not have that much insolence with iran. george bush said we sanctioned ourselves out of influence with

iran. what president obama can do is hit other countries that do business with iran because american companies basically do not but that means going through russia and china so it's not as easy as president obama to hit iran. he has to hit russia and china and that's what he doesn't want to do. >> the big thing he has not done, the trigger they haven't pulled is cutting off the central bank. england has done it. others have done it. the state department said this week that they aren't doing it because of the energy situation. the senate is pressuring them with legislation to do it now. >> it's actually pretty complex because it's not just a question russia and china. if he were to cut off central bank, he could create problems with the export of oil, say, to japan, and japan needs the oil right now. you could look at quite a big disruption to global energy markets. >> and a spike in energy prices here. >> absolutely. in addition, the iranian regime is not monolithic right now at all.

mahmoud ahmadinejad has many challenges inside the regime and they don't want to box people into a corner and inflame anti-american tendencies. >> how much pressure is there on president obama to do something? >> there's real fear that with american troops drawing down in iraq, iraq militias backed by iran will be able to close in on the u.s. embassy and consulate in basra and lob mortar in there and kill american diplomats, in which case, the administration will have to respond, and what they're thinking about doing is hitting iranian rocket factories. >> john, does this have the potential of being an election year issue? >> republicans are separate for a foreign policy issue they can cling to because president obama has been successful in foreign policy issues. this is one place where they might be able to get traction and they're not rooting for american failure in any place in the world, i don't believe that. but they are looking for a way in to make a critique of him

that he is too weak to lead. >> is there any question of military action other than the possibility of some strikes? >> there's a debate in the administration right now. there are equal forces on both sides. >> if it was really problematic. i've been to iran, spent time looking at that part of the world and it's not a simple equation at all. one reason why, in many ways, the most effective thing that's happened were the cyber attacks year.r this >> is slowing down iran nuclear development as far as it went, helene, there's increasing pressure and pressure in israel, as well, a fierce debate as to whether to take action. >> there's where the bigger threat lies talking about military action. even the bush administration didn't want to consider military action against iran. there is the real danger that there could be an israel strike and that would lead the united states into it.

and that would lead the united states into it. >> when we ♪ going to the bank without going to the bank... that's a step forward. with chase quickdeposit on your smartphone, you just snap a picture, hit send and done. chase quickdeposit. take a step forward and chase what matters. ♪ we just keep on keepin' on ♪ ♪ keep on

>> joe, tell me something i don't know. >> people have been saying that barack obama isn't apologizing to pakistan for the deaths of 24 pakistani soldiers last week for political reasons, because of the apology tour that john was talking about.

that's not true. the reason why he's not apologizing is because pakistan fired on our troops first. >> and that's what the investigation will prove. >> yes. >> gillian? >> we're going into holiday season so here's something not political. 44 million americans are receiving food assistance right now but 27% of food is thrown away. right now, that's creating in places like seattle a new craze for dumpster diving and communities jumping into dumpsters to pull out the food that's edible. >> horrendous. helene? >> there is discussion in the obama administration about the president might want to take that trip to israel next year. he has not done so. >> the fact that he has not been there yet is noted. >> that's an issue in the campaign. there's not much he can do if he does go because there are the plans for middle east peace process are pretty much have

shelved right now. >> is it enough for him to go without delivering anything? >> some people think just a video of him at the western wall, standing in israel, standing in the old city, would do a lot to boost the democratic jewish vote. >> we were talking about how the white house was heartened by the rise of newt gingrich, i believe it's a miscalulation. the likelihood of there being a significant third party candidate goes up 80% and there's not a scenario where a candidate like that doesn't hurt barack obama significantly. >> when we return, the question of the week, is this the perfect campaign for a third-party candidate?

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>> welcome back. 58% of voters say they would welcome a strong third-party challenge in the presidential election which brings us to the big question -- will we see a strong third-party presidential candidate and would that help or hurt barack obama? joe? >> ron paul ran a really devastating ad against newt gingrich this week. i think there will be a third-party challenge this year, it will come from the libertarian wing of the republican party and help obama. >> i think you're seeing a howl of protest against all politics and all washington so certainly ron paul is emerging as an interesting candidate and we're seeing financial crisis across the world that will play into his hands. >> he says he's not running as a third party but you never know. helene? >> let's not forget that a weak third-party candidate in 2000 hurt al gore. i think any third-party candidate would hurt president

obama. >> i think joe's right that if ron paul runs, it won't hurt obama but there could be 2/3-party candidates and you could imagine someone from americas elect which is a more centralist candidate. mike bloomberg is still out there. >> they have access in 50 states and someone will be handed that next june. i think that person will be more of a problem for barack obama. >> what a great roundtable. joe klein, gillian tett, helene cooper and john heilemann. chris is on a book tour this weekend for his kennedy biography.