this week -- a year to remember. as gridlock consumes washington. >> put something on the table! >> the republicans should start playing chicken. >> this is not class warfare. it's mad. >> a roller coaster republican race heads into the final stretch. >> i want to be the nominee. >> $10,000 bet. >> 9-9-9. >> oops. >> president obama is a one-term president. >> while the country waits anxiously for economic recovery. >> the biggest concern that the american people have jobs. >> jobs. >> jobs, jobs, jobs. >> anger occupies american streets. people powered revolution across the arab world. >> they left me all. >> and public enemy number one finally meets his end.

>> the united states has conducted an operation that killed osama bin laden. >> while american troops begin to head home. >> welcome back. i'm glad to see you. >> we reflect on the remarkable year that was and the election year to come in a special edition of "this week." from the museum in washington, this week with christian amman pour starts now. good morning. merry christmas and a very happy holidays to you all. it's hard to believe but 2012 is nearly upon us and in just over a week, iowa becomes ground zero in the race for the white house. rarely has a republican presidential nomination been so up for grabs. but the campaign battle is just one of the dramatic political stories that shaped this unpredictable year and our man jon karl counts down the top 11 of 2011. >> reporter: it was a year of

gridlock, protests, hopeful comebacks, agonizing defeats and racy tweets. we begin with number 11 of 2011. the tea party invasion of congress. it was a freshman class of outsiders. nearly half of them had never held an elected office. there was pizza shop owner bobby schilling, a ten test, army colonel allen west. eagles lineman john runyan. john boehner couldn't have been speaker of the house without them. >> it's the tea party's got speaker boehner painted into a box, he has no control over his caucus. >> no. >> the freshman class is running rough shods over him. >> no. no. that is not happening. >> reporter: trust me, speaker boehner couldn't do anything without them. number ten. occupy. it started as a few tents on wall street but grew into a

national even global movement. >> this is what looks democracy likes. >> reporter: by year's end they seemed to eclipsed the tea party movement. the 99% against the richest 1%. republicans denounced it all as class warfare. >> don't blame wall street. don't blame the big banks. if you don't have a job, and you're not rich, blame yourself. >> you don't think -- >> reporter: number nine the rise and fall of herman cain, of course. >> you see all these cameras following me around. >> reporter: he started out as the pizza guy with a big smile, giving a thumb's up to the pizza on capitol hill. >> crust has the right amount to it. he had a catchy economic plan. 9-9-9. a smoking campaign manager and was unlike any candidate we had ever seen. >> i feel pretty good today. >> ubeki-ubeki. no, that's an apple.

we're replacing a bunch of oranges. >> okay. so then governor perry was right -- >> no, he wasn't. he was mixing apples and oranges. >> reporter: after multiple allegations of sexual harassment and infidelity. >> and he put his hand on my leg, underneath my skirt. >> reporter: cain's campaign crashed and burned. >> i am suspending my presidential campaign. >> reporter: number eight, the scandals. >> hey. >> reporter: there was ripped republican congressman, chris lee, married and hooking up with women on craigslist. arnold schwarzenegger admitting he fathered a child ten years ago with his family's long-time housekeeper. no scandal captured our attention like new york democrat's anthony weiner's tweets. >> i did not send that tweet. my system was hacked, i was pranked, it was a fairly common one. people make fun of my name all the time. >> tell me, is that a photograph of you? >> we're trying to find out

the -- where that photograph came from and whether it was manipulated. >> reporter: oh, yeah. that was him. >> i'm deeply sorry for the pain this has caused my wife houma and our family. >> reporter: number seven, congressional gridlock. in april we came to the brink of a government shutdown. >> we're not going to allow the senate nor the white house to put us in a box. >> we have bent over backwards to try to be fair and reasonable. >> the agreement came within minutes of lights going out on federal government. but the higher stakes came in august with the debt ceiling showdown. the country came within hours of its first ever default. >> i stuck my neck out a mile to try to get an agreement with the president, it is time for the administration and time for our colleagues across the aisle, put something on the table! tell us where you are. >> reporter: final deal was hated by everybody. and was followed by another first -- a credit downgrade of the united states of america.

number six, the end of the iraq war. for president obama, it was a promise kept. he once called it a dumb war. but in the end, he acknowledged that the mission started by george w. bush had actually accomplished something -- >> we're leaving behind a sovereign, stable and self-reliant iraq with a representative government that was elected by its people. >> reporter: number five. the long overdue capture and killing of enemy number one. >> the united states has conducted an operation that killed osama bin laden. >> reporter: the heroics of the navy s.e.a.l.s who swept into his compound deep inside pakistan instantly became the stuff of legend and also a way for president obama to push back against republicans who call him soft on terrorism. >> ask osama bin laden and the 22 out of 30 top al qaeda

leaders who have been taken off the field, whether i engage in appeasement. >> reporter: number four, they could have been contenders. trump palin daniels, ryan, they all flirted with running. but it was new jersey governor chris christie who republicans practically begged to run. who could forget this moment at the reagan library. >> we need you. your country needs you to run for president. [ applause ] >> i thank you for what you're saying. and i take it in and i'm listening to every word of it and i'm feeling it. >> reporter: mitt romney must have been thinking, what about me? but christie opted out. >> new jersey, whether you like it or not, you're stuck with me. >> reporter: number three -- >> she's now starting to open her eyes. spontaneously. >> reporter: the miraculous return of gabby giffords. she not only survived a gunshot wound to the head, but shocked the nation with a surprise visit to the house floor to cast a historic vote to raise the debt

ceiling. months later, she and her husband talked about their ordeal with diane sawyer. >> is there a word for mark? >> brave. >> that's what i think of when i think of you, too. >> reporter: number two, jobs. or lack thereof. that could be the determining factor if obama keeps his job. job fairs around the country are inundated. in l.a., over 10,000 showed up for a single job fair and thousands more lined up in the summer heat in atlanta, even camping out overnight in their best business attire. >> got child, kids, bills, you don't want to be homeless. >> reporter: the year started out with an unemployment rate of 9.4%. it improved ever so slightly, but by year's end, it was still too high and over 14 million americans were still searching for work. number one the boom and bust republican primary. in august, michele bachmann looked like a front-runner.

>> thank you, everyone! we did this together. >> reporter: she won the iowa straw poll and then promptly flamed out. next up, rick perry shot to the top, but not for long. >> the -- the commerce. >> the commerce. >> let's see. i can't. oops. >> reporter: herman cain had his turn, he, too, was at a loss for words. >> okay, libya -- that's a different one. >> reporter: throughout it all, mitt romney stayed steady. about 25% in virtually every poll as the others rose and fall. one romney aid called it whack-a-mole. every time one candidate went down, another one popped up. the last one standing, newt gingrich, maybe even ron paul. >> i am going to be the nominee.

>> reporter: who would have thought that gingrich was dead and buried over the summer. the greek cruise, the line of credit at tiffany's the mass resignation of his campaign staff, but newt would rise again. just ask mitt romney. >> things that mitt romney would like to get off his chest. >> newt gingrich, really? >> yeah. >> reporter: with this year in politics in 2011 i'm jon karl. >> as ever, thank you, jon carl. in a little more than a week, the decideders finally start deciding in the iowa caucuses. let's bring in our round table, george will, cokie roberts, ed gillespie and jon karl. let me start with you, george, republicans often rally around a top candidate early on. this time it seemed like at least every month there was a new top candidate. what's been going on? >> what's been going on is an astonnishly resistantens to mitt

romney. at the end of the day, they may settle on mitt romney. they're going to shop around for a while yet. >> let me ask you, ed, that broad-based resistance has brought us now to newt gingrich being at the top of the pack. is that something that gives you confidence, should he be the nominee, your party will be able to regain the white house? >> i think whoever eemerges as the nominee will win the white house in 2012. when you look at president obama's numbers, his approval rating, the right direction, wrong track, whom ever emerges as our nominee from a tough, competitive primary processes think is likely to be the next president. >> you know there are republicans up there, if gingrich wins they're going to lose everything. i talked to good friends of yours that tell me, look, if newt gingrich is our nominee we are in serious danger of losing the house. >> jon, i think we're going to have a very lengthy nominating process as i've predicted for some time. the fact is, if gingrich demonstrates the discipline

necessary to win in that lengthy contentious process, i suspect that would settle the nerves. of a lot of those folks. >> the point that you're making, all things being equaled, a republican should win, and what's happening is all things are not equal because of the field of candidates. and that has really turned this thing into a real election and it does have republicans extremely nervous. i keep thinking they're bound to settle on romney at some point. >> why are they nervous if gingrich is the nominee? >> people on capitol hill know him quite well and he is someone who just throws bombs and we have seen him do that and they're worried that some bomb is going to come and make it totally impossible for the majority of people to say, i feel comfortable with him. with his hand on the button. >> newt gingrich has made a central part of his campaign a frontal assault on the rule of law in the united states. an attack on the courts.

in doing so, he has aligned himself with andrew jackson and his defiance of john marshall, and franklin roosevelt impacting the courts. >> not the conservative that he says he is. and that primary voters want. >> the primary voters are spending a lot of time thinking about andrew jackson -- >> about credentials. >> they do care about conservative credentials and, obviously, those are being attacked. they just can't get themselves around mitt romney. i mean he just doesn't get over 23%. i mean, 77% keep saying no. >> you mentioned in your report there, the tea party, that surge -- that resurgence, the surge of the tea party over the last year and a half, is this part of the problem, the battle between the establishment republican party and the insurgent tea party. >> george will tell you there's no surgent tea party. the tea party takeover of congress has utterly transformed the republican party. it's fascinating.

this is movement that helps fuel the election win in 2010 for republicans. it was basically reaction against obama and pelosi. the effect it's had is to transforge the republican party and tie if you want to call them the establishment or not, tie the leadership of this party in congress in knots. >> reporter: so ed, has their power peaked? do you think they're on the wane? where do you see this insurgent force that we've seen play out? >> i think they're still very strong and i'm happy about it. the notion in washington, d.c., among some of the elite, the tea party are a problem for the republican party has been pretty laughable. the fact is, i'm someone who's been in the republican party trenches for years and my mentality is -- my view of the tea party folks, where have you been? we're thrilled to have you here. this is the fight we've been fighting. let's go. >> you're going to see backlash in various state elections -- >> but you can't see a real backlash, because of the way congressional lines are drawn. the district lines are drawn. if they were running against democrats, they would have a

problem, perhaps, but they're not. they're running, you know, in very, very safe districts the only problem they would have, if a republican challenged them from the right and that's not going to happen. >> that's true of democrats, too >> i agree completely. no, i agree. >> their biggest fear is being challenged from the left. >> let's talk about that, president obama seeing a lot of his core supporters disappointed with him. there is this bad economy. what happens? how does he it turn that around before the next election? >> scare them to death about the other candidate. that's what he's in the process of doing right now? >> is that a winning strategy? >> it can be. look, the way people vote for president, they sit there and say, who do i trust more to do what i think is right in the next four years, whatever issue comes up. and do i at least trust this guy more than the other guy? and if he says that you can't trust the other guy enough, that could help. >> george, not just presidential election, obviously a lot of congress people are also up for

election. there is any chance that anything will get done any time this coming year, or are we going to see what we have seen over the past 12 months, grid lock? >> sure, the country is divided. this institution represents the country's tuition of its mind. let's remember one thing. we talked about people running for office. probably the most important man in 2012 is justice anthony kennedy, traditional swing vote, because sometimes probably by the end of june, the supreme court is going to rule on several aspects of the constitutionality of the president's signature achievement, obama care. no matter how they rule, it will bring it back to the forefront of the argument. >> what's beginning to happen, some aspects of it that's quite popular. when you look at the polling on specifics in the bill, are taking effect. if enough of them start to take effect people start to like it, that could change the dynamics. >> look, this is a health care

bill that was passed without a single republican vote. i mean, this -- purely partisan vote. and we're going to have a supreme court decision on this. what's the betting it's going to be a 5/4 decision? >> pretty good. >> so what are some of the looming battles that you see ahead? >> all of the battles are all stacked in the lame-duck session. whoever wins controls the presidency. which ever party gains control of the congress, is going to have to wait until they're sworn in and watch this lame duck congress and pe terribly lame duck president deal with things like the expiration of the bush tax cuts, looming defense cuts under the super committee's agreement, and the fact the debt ceiling has to be raised again by the end of the year. >> let's go around the table and do end of the year and future prognostication here. what was, george, for you, the biggest political disappointment of this year some? >> 11:00 at night on may 21st.

i got a call from my friend, the governor of indiana, saying that he was going to announce mitch daniels was not going to run for president. best suited by experience, temperament and philosophy opted out. >> >> cokie? >> for me political disappointment, is not partisan. as a reporter, it's if somebody doesn't run. i have no disappointments along those lines. this has been great. >> what was the biggest surprise for you? >> the republican field's up and down nature as we saw in jon's piece. >> it's not usually that way. >> it's not usually that way at all. and the fact that they still haven't settled is really quite interesting. >> so, what is then for you, ed gillespie, taking what cokie said about the republican party the biggest failure of the year would you say? >> i'm not sure about failure, but i would agree with george in terms of disappointment that mitch didn't run. john thune and haley barbour as well.

if those three had been in the field it would be a more fulsome field right now. so, i think there's a sense of disappointment amongst republican those three opted out rather than in. >> do you think mitt romney, the sort of anyone but myth, is actually going to be the nominee? >> i don't know. it's been very fluid. the question right now is, is it a ceiling that he's facing? or is it at the end of the day, people are going to gravitate toward him? we saw this with john mccain in the last cycle. he was down and people resisted going to him. at the end of the day, they did. i don't know that that's going to be the case this time. >> didn't turn out so well for the republicans in the end. >> i agree with that. very tough environment. >> right. >> i think it's a tough environment for the president this go-round. >> jon, at this late date, all of this anxiety could result in a third-party candidate? >> well, look, the conditions are practically perfect for a third-party candidate, especially if newt gingrich is the republican nominee.

you have two candidates for the parties that have absolutely -- i mean almost no support among independents at this point. completely alienating independents. there is the environment for it. but who? who's out there? >> ron paul. >> successful third-party candidates have three things -- a regional base, george wallace a burning issue, george wallace or ross perot, got 19% of the vote and a vivid personality and lord knows that perot and wallace had that. i don't see anyone with any of the three. >> quick lightning round then, who do you think was the most influential politician of 2011? real name. not the president. >> john boehner. skis consistently managed an unrurally president and bested the president time after time. >> i can't say the president. >> no. >> i'm afraid i have to agree with george then. >> otherwise, why the president? >> the president is still the president. and he can set an agenda in a way that others can't.

>> paul ryan who put forward a concrete plan to reform entitlement spending which stood an onslaught by the left in defense of it and i think has shaped the debate and made clear to republicans and conservatives that this is an argument we can make and make with confidence. >> i'll say paul ryan, slightly different take, he put forth the idea that you could actually tackle entitlements and survive politically and he got every single republican in the house to sign on to his plan. we'll see if it works. it's going to be a major factor in the election going forward. they will demonize paul rhine, gave the democrats something to portray as the enemy, but i think paul ryan. >> do you think, of course, we actually saw our own george will and paul ryan debating these very important issues last week on the great american debate. can i get you all to predict who will be this time next year, preparing his inaugural address.

>> all of the numbers say that the president won't be. but if the president carries the john kerry states, 245 electoral votes and needs 25 more, don't count the president out. >> i think probably at this time next year it would be barack obama. >> i disagree with that. i'm not sure i'm neutral in the republican party primary, but like i say whoever emerges as the nominee is the one doing that. >> oh come on. >> i'm not going to -- it's too fluid to -- >> can you tell me who will win iowa, do you think? >> i really can't. i think -- iowa voters are famously late in deciding and we're seeing up and down, you know, still today. you know. >> the influence at the caucus themselves. >> right. >> there's a tremendous amount of betty sue, come to my corner. >> jon? >> i have no idea who will be the next president but i will say this, none of us will have any idea on midnight election night. it's going to be such a close race, the country is so evenly divided, george mentioned the

kerry map, this is going to be a close election and we are going to be waiting until the following day to find out. >> i will disagree with that. >> if that's the case, we don't call it then. >> i think it's going to be decisive one way or the other. >> i bet you $10,000. >> this conversation will continue in the green room. and up next -- revolt and revolution, what this year's upheaval in the muslim and arab world will mean for the united states in 2012 and beyond. beyond. "this week" with christian am man pour, brought to you by ibm. but over the next 20 years, air traffic is expected to double. the systems that track, manage and connect these flights weren't built to handle all that data. ibm is working with boeing on a next generation system to help integrate global air traffic more efficiently and in real time. making another of the world's most critical systems smarter.

that's what i'm working on. i'm an ibmer. let's build a smarter planet. lord of the carry-on. sovereign of the security line. you never take an upgrade for granted. and you rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle. and go. you can even take a full-size or above. and still pay the mid-size price. i deserve this. [ male announcer ] you do, business pro. you do. go national. go like a pro. it's bee it's been a huge eventful year both here and around the world. "time" magazine couldn't find a single video to name person of the year, instead calling its year of the protester, and, indeed, it was.

from the occupy wall street movement here to european demonstrators protesting budget cuts and crowds of russians calling for election reform and most momentous of all the arab spring protest that transformed that part of the world which is now bursting with new political life. let's take a look at the big events in the world that happened this year. it began just a year ago, when a young tunisian street vendor named mohammed, set himself on fire to protest an unresponsive dictatorship. suddenly, the whole region was ablaze with young people yearning for change. the majority of the arab population is under 25. after the tunisian ruler ben ali fled the country, egypt, leader of the arab world, was next to

iraq. the people took tahrir or liberation square by the thousands and we were in the middle of it. >> we wait for you to attack and defeat. whatever you do [ inaudible ]. >> reporter: suddenly this, almost medieval sight. men riding horses and camels galloping in at great-neck speed charging the crowd and cracking their whip. soon, this square was a battle ground. we went back to the square and quickly found ourselves surrounded. by an angry mob of pro-mubarak supporters. >> okay. >> you want us to go? >> yes, i want you to go from here. >> reporter: they kicked in the car doors and broke our windshields as we drove off. they hit the car with their fists over and over again, threw a rock through the front window, the glass is shattered all over our driver.

violence flared that night as firing started into the crowd. morning brought with it some calm. inside the barricade, again the proy testers have lining up their own civil defense here, prepared for what might happen this afternoon. all over the square, we saw the weary and the wounded. >> just above my eyebrow. >> forehead, noses, faces bandaged, bloodied. reinforcements were pouring in. people came with new supplies. in a remarkable 18 days, they forced out one of the region's enduring leaders, a great ally of the united states and israel, hosni mubarak. i was the only journalist to see and talk to mubarak, during those last days in office. i'll never forget him telling me he was tired, fed in, and would step down. if i resign now, he said, there will be chaos and i'm afraid the

muslim brotherhood will take over. libya's moammar gadhafi was next in line for the wrath of his people, unlike mubarak who knew the game was up, gadhafi was in total denial. >> how are you? good to meet you. christiane amanpour, abc news. i spoke to him in an exclusive interview in february. >> they left me all. >> if they do love you -- >> they will die to protect me and my people. >> reporter: instead they lynched him the moment they got their hands on him. after nato, helped the insurgency with air support. across north africa and to the heart of the middle east, dominos fell all the way to syria where the foreign press is banned and more than 5,000 syrians have been killed, according to the united nations. the president, bashar assad, had the goal to say he was not to

blame for the bloodshed. he said he wasn't in control. he said that in an exclusive interview with abc's barbara walters. >> do you think that your forces cracked down too hard? >> they are not my forces. they are forces that belong to the government. >> but you're -- >> i don't own them. i'm president. i don't own the country. >> no, but you have -- >> reporter: dictators dissem bling for all the world to see. his neighbor king of jordan, told me in may there was no doubt who was running the show in sir dwra. >> he's calling the shots. i think bashar needs to get people on the table. >> reporter: assad ignored that advice and the violence in his country has escalated to the brink of civil war. what does this all upheaval for the region and for the united states? the big fear has always been that well-organized islamic

parties like egypt's muslim brother lo brotherhood, would emerge as the strongest and turn the arab world turns islamic fundamentalism. with the first elections taking place, grassroots experience is paying off. in tunisia, a moderate islamist party won the most votes in elections in october and there it pains to insist that their islam is not at odds with democracy. in egypt the muslim brotherhood did win the biggest bloc in this month's parliamentary election. and lately has been seen as more moderate and politically flexible. although a more radical islamic party came in a strong second. the real tension in egypt now is over the role of the military, how long will it stay in power? the headlines said it all. osama bin laden, the most notorious terrorist in history shot and killed by american forces. the discovery that he had been

hiding in plain sight in a military town in pakistan was an important milestone in the fight against terrorism. but the arab spring had shown that the al qaeda ideology was already a spent force in the arab world. relegated to remote corners like yemen and somalia. it's the worst drought the region has seen in 60 years and it's left more than 10 million people in desperate and dire straits. where this summer we were the first american network to report on the looming disaster there. a dying child, a mother grieving, a father helpless. they are the victims of what aid officials are calling the worst humanitarian crisis on earth. drought, combined with a deadly insurgency by al qaeda-linked rebel groups, led to the first

famine of the 21st century. tens of thousands perished. there are predictions another quarter million somalians still might die. as my team and i crossed japan to find almost biblical scenes of destruction, fears of a nuclear meltdown. in march, we were in japan covering a different kind of disaster. a devastating earthquake that triggered a terrible tsunami. it killed more than 15,000 people and unleashed a nuclear calamity. huge swaths of land along the coast remain under water. we fly past this massive plume of black smoke, billowing 3,000 feet into the air. the petro chemical plant below has been burning since the earthquake struck and oil is spilling into the water. and as the disaster in japan

shook the global economy, financial tremors were rumbling throughout the world. >> on the edge of default. >> reporter: europeans took to the streets protesting austerity measures to combat their debt-ridden country. the international financial system was in peril throughout the year by the euro debt crisis. >> greece started as an infection in the toe and was allowed to spread. now europe has three problems, it has a debt problem, a banking crisis and growth problem. >> return to your initial question, of what impact does this have on the u.s.? i think potentially devastating. >> taliban ambush, bullets are coming at us from three sides. >> reporter: and in afghanistan in october, the u.s. marked ten years of war, as the obama administration announced it

would start drawing down its forces. in iraq, this week, the last american troops withdrew ending nearly nine years of combat there with 4500 americans and more than 100,000 iraqis dead, and at a cost of $800 billion. martha raddatz has been there throughout. >> all u.s. troops may be out of iraq right now, but this does not really end the war for the iraqis and there is a very big threat of sectarian violence in iraq and certainly the threat of al qaeda. but the biggest question is what kind of influence iran will have here? >> reporter: and this week, the year ended with another dictator down. north korean ruler kim jong-il death added more uncertainty to

the volatile korean peninsula. ♪ >> and when we return -- we'll discuss these events that shaped our world with our round table. so stay with us. with our round table. so stay with us.

welcome back. it's been just over a year since the dawn of the arab spring and the ripple effects are still churning the region and the world. gone are many of the autocratic regimes of the muslim world. mubarak has been deposed, gadhafi is dead, and what's sprouting is democracy but also considerable uncertainty for the united states. and that's where we begin our discussion today. joining me at the table, richard haass, and robin wright. senior fellow of the u.s. institute of peace and author of the new book "rock the casbah, rage and

rebellion across the islamic world." thank you for being here. let's go into what has excited everyone, the arab spring. there are elections going on right now. political islam is riding to the for, is that something necessarily really scary, richard? >> potentially. i would disagree with two things you said, if i may. i wouldn't use the phrase arab spring. spring lasts for three months. this will last for three decades. springs are good. this may not be. i don't think it's fair to say democracy is sprouting. wave seen the overstloe of authoritarian regimes. we don't have the basic of democracy. we don't have civil society, constitutionalism, we don't have checks and balances. we will only know if we have democracy years. >> so that's a pessimistic view. >> maybe. >> political islam was bound to be the first, wasn't it? >> i think first of all, the arab uprising the important story of the early 21st century

in terms of changing the last block of country in the volatile corner in a way that we saw elsewhere in the late 20th century. the two trends of the next decade will often for those of us on the west look like contradictions. one the birth of demand for political participation and justice and the end of corruption but also the use of islam and if -- i'm not sure it's always scary. i think we have seen the emergence of the whole new political spectrum among islamics. you have groups, the hard-lines who follow the ideology of saudi arabia. a lot of others who are at various places on the spectrum, renounced violence, understand that they have to not only learn how to pick up the garbage but create jobs. this will be the -- brotherhood has been doing well, because they have been picking up the garbage and delivering. social services. again, what does this mean for the united states? given that presumably america wants the voice of the people to be heard? >> way too soon. we're still going to be working

it out right then. we'll have disagreements about democracy, again the same fundamental issues. disagreements about the approach to israel. as the public voice becomes more pronounced this part of the world, likely to become anti-israeli. probably have disagreements about working against terrorism, the old guard was a real partner, these guys aren't. we're going to want to give help to them on certain conditions. we will give you economic help if you do certain things. we will give you political help and democratic assistance only if you do certain things. working that out will be a source of friction. >> when it comes to israel the majority there don't want another war but they do want in the case of the muslim brotherhood changes to the current camp david treaty. salahi don't want the treaty at all. that's where the danger lies. a lot of the dynamics will be in terms of their dealings with the outside world and we'll have a hard it time because these are societies that don't want to be painted by us, new governments

that are not going to take aid on our terms. we're going to be wanting, many in congress in particular, will not want to give aid to what to them looks like islamic governments. >> let's shift to iran, that's still going to be a big issue for the united states administration? >> absolutely. iran has the potential to be the dominant foreign policy of 2012. >> we've heard president obama throughout his administration, once it was clear diplomacy was not going to go the way he intended, talk about an unacceptable nuclear iran. that language has somewhat abated using all means and powers of the u.s. to prevent a nuclear iran has shifted to now we're going to try to prevent, going to isolate. is there a passive policy shift that's happening? >> i don't think so. there's a concern about bringing this to a head in a way that would spook the international oil markets, get oil prices two or three times where they are which could be the external

shock that would cause the double dip. but i do think that the administration policy to use sanctions. use clandestine methods to slow down the iranian nuclear methods. they want to avoid that choice between accepting or acquiescing in an iran yak nuclear weapons program or launching a military strike against them. >> actually, they're trying to condition against a military strike, every time you hear somebody talking about it, oh, my goodness, look at the unintended consequences, but sanks haven't worked, they're still doing it. what are the options now if you want to prevent a nuclear iran? >> one is dealing with the central bank. >> they still don't want to do that. >> congress has voted, 100-0 to impose sanctions on countries, companies that do business through the central bank. but there's also the issue of oil and this is one where whether it's the european union taking the lead or the united states, that's down the road.

even though iran is going to be new issue of 2012 i don't think we'll see any military strike by the united states or israel during that time. no one believes we're at that point that action needs to be taken and that's true among israeli intelligence analysts. >> does it go back to a containment of iran, try to live with a nuclear iran? what does this mean. >> >> you can't bomb knowledge and the iranians have reached a certain point that what do you bomb and what can you damage and how much would you set back the program and how much do you actually rally iranians around the idea we need a nuclear weapon because we are being attacked by the outside world. it changes the political dynamics on that issue as well. >> how troubling will iran be for the united states in the next 12 months? >> going to be extraordinarily troubling. iran was the beneficiary of the iraq war. improved iran's strategic position. some of the events in the arab

world with one exception syria, have helped iran. iran has emerged as a major actor. along with turkey, with israel, we'll see what egypt becomes. this is part of the mix. u.s. influence is probably down. we're at a situation where our interests in this troubled part of the world, our interests are greater than our influence. never a comfortable point for a policy maker, but i think that's the truth. that in in some ways we're as much bystander to events as influen influencer. >> you've written abe about this, reorienting america to this challenge. looks to me, i don't know if you agree, the u.s. may be moving away from the middle east and iran to an extent and moving towards asia, the pacific, as the president has said. >> that makes strategic sense. look at the world, where is the great concentration of wealth? asia. ultimately this wealth will be translated in other forms of power, china, india, korea, japan. this is where history in the 21st century is largely going to be written. how asia plays out will

determine more than anything the character of the coming decade. the middle east still has the potential to wreck things, whether through terrorism, instability, oil, or nuclear proliferation. the middle east is still the fly in the ointment. can't ignore it, can't move away from it, but we can avoid future iraqs. american forces have come home. can avoid future afghanistans. that large-scale american land force investment in the middle east, bob gates is right, those days are over. >> what about the other major headwind in the united states, this global economic crisis? you sau see it playing out in europe right now? >> one of the reasons i think the united states is engaging in what's called strategic rebalance toward asia is the barometer of power increasingly is defined by economics and less and less by military might. we can't actually achieve our goals in iraq and afghanistan, military, it takes a lot of political muscle. the fact that we have ignored what's been happening in asia with the re-emergens of china

and south korea, strong economies, but the challenge is looking at europe and can it survive? one of the things that is so interesting about the world in the 21st century how we're moving through a global world and the regional blocks. can it unite around whether it's a financial unit or a constitutional or common political goal? >> our last 45 seconds, how perilous is what's happening in europe right now, given the largest market for the u.s.? >> it is perilous and the politics have lagged behind and the economics and finance. that's not going to change. you're not going to see an integrated europe that will match the monetary sense. i came back from china. what was interesting in my meetings with senior chinese official, the first question they had was europe. they are worried if europe goes badly china's ability to export will go down. that raises fundamental questions about china's economic model and hence political stability. so europe right now, with the

dominant issue in 2011 with the middle east, probably those two issues are going to stay dominant in 2012. >> robin wright, richard haas, thank you for joining us. happy christmas, happy holidays. when we return, your road map for the start of election 2012. what to expect in the week ahead. that's coming up. 12. what to expect in the week ahead. that's coming up. in america, we believe in a future that is better than today. since 1894, ameriprise financial has been working hard for their clients' futures. never taking a bailout. helping generations achieve dreams. buy homes. put their kids through college. retire how they want to. ameriprise. the strength of america's largest financial planning company. the heart of 10,000 advisors working with you, one-to-one. together, for your future. ♪ together, for your future. all over the world, cities are learning from other cities. smarter technologies cut response times in madrid,

while monitoring water systems in washington d.c., built off analytics that predict traffic in singapore, and help prepare for flooding emergencies in rio. with 2,000 projects underway, ibm is helping make cities smarter. i'm an ibmer. let's build a smarter planet, city by city.

while the republican while the republican candidates are all taking the weekend off for christmas, they won't be able to rest for long. here's jon karl with a look at ahead at the next week in politics. >> reporter: next week, all eyes are on iowa. as the gop candidates make their final push before the january 3rd caucuses. on tuesday, newt gingrich and michele bachmann both hit the road with bus tours across the hawkeye state. romney brings his campaign bus on wednesday. making his final appeal to caucusgoers. ron paul targets central and western iowa holding a salute to veterans wednesday night and as rick perry crisscrosses iowa all week, godfather steve forbes stumps for him in new hampshire. meanwhile, with the payroll tax deal wrapped up, president obama spends the week relaxing with the first family in hawaii. and stay around for sunday's funnies are next. funnies are next. ababababababab

and now the sunday funnies. >> this one is entitled, things that we will miss about kim jong-il. ♪

>> nothing! >> republicans and democratic senators set aside their differences and exchanged gifts in the first ever senate secret santa. >> merry christmas, bob. >> thank you, george. >> of course. >> oh! >> he's too erratic, he does not have the discipline, the capacity to control himself, and he can't stay focused. >> that's who you're going to nominate for president? can't control himself, can't stay focused, too erratic? those last descriptions are usually followed by the phrase, disruptive at math time and a bit of a biter. >> we'll be right back. all because so many people wanted to visit us... hdisruptive at math time and a bit of a biter. >> we'll be right back. edisrupt bit of a biter. >> we'll be right back. 'sdisrup a bit of a biter. >> we'll be right back. disruptd a bit of a biter. >> we'll be right back. this year was great but next year's gonna bebetter.

and anyone who knows the gulf knows that winter is primetime fun time. the sun's out and the water's beautiful. you can go deep sea fishing for amberjack, grouper and mackerel. our golf courses are open. our bed and breakfast have special rates. and migrating waterfowl from all over make this a bird watcher's paradise. so if you missed it earlier this year, come on down. if you've already been here come on back... to mississippi... florida... louisiana... alabama. the gulf's america's get-a-way spot no matter where you go. so come on down and help make 2012 an even better year for tourism on the gulf. brought to you by bp and all of us who call the gulf home. and now, in memoriam. and now, in memoriam.

♪ >> all it does not say at all that may not be a prime mover or higher intelligence, but i say no one has yet earned any claim to act in name. ♪ ♪ >> he hates everything. he likes it. hey, mikey.

♪ >> we remember all of those who died in war these last two weeks. the pentagon released the names of these service members killed in afghanistan. we'll be right back. premie. you know organization is key... and so is having a trusted assistant. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle...and go. you can even take a full-size or above and still pay the mid-size price. here we are... [ male announcer ] and there you go, business pro. there you go. go national. go like a pro.

hey, mikey.

that's our program today. and i want to thank you all for inviting me into your home every sunday for the past year and a half. it's been an enormous privilege to anchor this press tinges you program as we traveled around the country and parts of the world together. as i noted earlier, this has been the year of the people, you and people like you from every corner of the globe have made your voices heard. and it's exhilarating to cover and experience democracy in action, whether old or newborn. in the new year, you can find me

off on new adventures covering global affairs and challenges here at home in this struggling economy. i'll be doing specials in prime time and other abc news programs and finally, i would like to thank the dedicated staff of "this week" which worked tirelessly to get this program on the air every week and they'll be in good hands with my colleague george stephanopoulos who takes over this broadcast on sunday, january the 8th. for all of us here, thank you for watching. i wish you all a joyful holiday and very happy new year. ♪ ♪ ♪

♪ ♪ ♪ abababababababababababababababb