>> there are two big polls out today confirming newt gingrich has become the man to beat in the race for the republican nomination. with the first in the nation iowa caucuses now just 29 days away the former speaker of the house has surged to the lead in that state according to the des moines register. released today but conducted before herman cain pulled the plug on his already mortally wounded candidacy. register polls show gingrich already in the lead with 25 percent. ron paul is second with a solid 18 percent and romney does okay with 16 percent.

everyone else is in single tig gets. lcome. any indication statistical or antidotal of how cain's 8 percent will be divvied up among the surviving candidate? >> newt gingrich is the benefactor of that. we asked what their second choice candidate was. gingrich goes up 3 points but then you have four others who benefit that's mitt romney, rick perry ron paul and michelle bachmann. they each go up one point. santorum and hudson don't move. >> you are suggesting gingrich's lead is broader than indicated. >> yes. >> what about ron paul. is that support for real? >> he has pluses and minuses. he's in second place. he does well with first time

caucus goers which means they are focused on recruiting newcomers. he does well with the youngest and independents and moderates and liberals. they see him as fiscally responsible with the most principles and also see him as the most negative. admiration for newt gingrich grows further. he is the best to turn around the economy most experienced and knowledgeable. and ron paul is going to have a little trouble with second choice voters only 7 percent is second choice. that's a little weak for him. >> that is the problem in the republican race the guy that is the odds on favorite is not the same guy that is most electable. today's other big poll the first

in the nation's primary state romney leads there with 39 percent. even there in the state now 23 percent with ron paul again the other other candidate with double figures at 16. you can't blame gingrich talking the rasmussen has him doubling romney 38-17 percent. >> i am going to be the nominee. it's hard not to look at the recent polls that the odds are very high i am going to be the nominee. >> they have an extensive long record of working in washington with various government tal and nongovernment tal agencies. i don't think that's the background that is ideally want to replace barack obama and number two to lead the country. >> his corporations $100 million this year alone to pedal influence.

that's not what we want to see in the white house. we want someone that is going to fight washington not someone who is paid over 100 million in one year alone to influence it. >> congressman mario valez. welcome to the poll. it choose gingrich 35.7 percent over mitt romney and mccain 19.3 percent each. do these numbers give you recent to doubt your recent endorsement of mitt romney. >> we admire gingrich we all do. i think he is ready -- the private sector understands how we have to help our eye lies. he can get elected.

he can win in november. he can beat president obama. nominating someone who cannot win in november and having another four years of president obama i think that is disas prous. don't think the country can survive another four years of president obama. that's why i think mitt romney is the person. he is ready. my next guest is jillian conway. here in south larl line gnaw. just did florida. iowa gingrich, new hampshire gingrich a close second. kout sarl line gnaw we ha -- so carolina we have the latest poll there. 39.9 percent compared to romney. what do you think? >> i think republican primary voters proved in 2010 they are not much interested in elect ability and i've nevitability. they are going for experience over elect ability.

i would like to drop his elect ability because you can't prove it. if you can win we have president rudy giuliani or president hillary clinton. they were told you can't win. nobody endorsed them in the primaries. voters didn't ask who can win they asked who can lead. >> nice to meet you. >> nice to meet you. >> your lovely daughter in town survived to see i thought you would be on the verge there. why haven't you endorsed romney yet? are you going the other way? >> i have not endorsed anybody yet. i like a lot of them. i like newt gingrich i like ron paul. like mitt romney. i enjoyed meeting herman cain. who is the best leader of our

party? who can fight the obama administration? we need to figure out who is person is. i am waiting to see who the best person is. >> the person who is most electable or the person who idea logically speaking suits you the most? >> i look at ideology rather than elect ability. it's really a myth. if you look at my race for example i was the least electable in the primary the least electable when it came head to head in my opponent in the general election. i was out spent 5 to 1 in each one of those races. >> a common complaint is i am just not excited the field isn't exciting. if you want to get excited take a sglum bau class. you should be excited about the prospect of beating him.

the interesting krip you showed with mitt romney saying he has worked with government and has been in washington too long. that's the experience they want. they may say they don't respect congress. you need to know your way around the city. >> i was a state legislator for years. >> cane getting 19.3 percent in florida. where is that going to go now? >> i think it will be split up by the candidates. we have great candidates they stand for a lot of the same things. they are fiscal conservatives and social conservatives. they want to bring our country back to where it needs to go.

i am convinced of this. we have to win in november. we have to make sure president obama doesn't get re-elected. the person who can do that and take it to them in a debate who can show the american people we are ready to leave i think that's mitt romney. beforing in florida during the elections it is a wonderful day. >> he may be one for four. but coming up, craig catches up to herman cain and at the bottom of the hour for the first time in a cable news exclusive gary giordano tells me how he lost robin gardener in the water off aruba. an exclusive after this.

>> showing up for the first time with his wife gloria stepping off the bus. herman cain the embattled republican candidate. >> as of today with a lot of prayer and soul searching, i am suspending my presidential campaign. >> from relative obscurity the businessman went up the ranks for republican candidate.

just as the cane train reached top speeds the former ceo of godfather's pizza was smacked by one cscandal after another. >> four women accused you have inappropriate behavior. sex harassment followed by sharon biala who claims he, too, had been harassed. >> put his hand under my skirt and reached for my again tells. >> we talked last week about the big target being on your back. did you think it would be like this? >> i didn't think it would be this bad in terms of how some people want to come after me and my campaign. that part surprised me. it didn't surprise mow how it would happen. >> he fought to defend his

character and campaign. appearances with letterman and jimmy kimball. >> there's not an ounce of truth in all of these accusations. >> we spoke after a contentious press conference in houston followed by an appearance from newt gingrich. >> we are getting back to topic. >> how is gloria doing with this? >> my wife obviously like most spouses actually took it harder than i did. she knew about this. she knew it was baseless from 1999. i had people tell me usually the family members are the ones that take it harder than the candidates. >> he stayed in the fight shrinking in the polls. his message resinated with many until ginger white surfaced

claiming a 13 year extra marital affair. >> i didn't want to do this but i felt it was the righted thing to do. >> they cried charact assassination. >> she was someone who i considered a friend although apparently she is not. >> she has proof of the relationship that ended only 8 months ago. her cell phone with one name, cain. some made as early as 426 in the morning and 7:52 at night. i am suspending my presidential campaign because of the continued distraction, the continued hurt caused on me and my family. >> disan pointed? >> i am very disappointed. i thought he would stay with it and see where it came out.

hopefully the governor of georgia. >> i am sad it has to come down to a good man having to resign because folks like to tear down instead of build up. >> as the former candidate made a final sweep they made it clear this was not the last we will see of herman cain. >> we will fight this dog. any fight left in this dog? >> a lot of fight in this dog. why do you say he's bailing out. >> other federal election laws if a candidate is no longer actively campaigning they can wind down their election. >> who is he going to endorse? >> he said who he is not going to endorse the current resident of the white house. >> oh, him.

>> that guy. he is out. >> it was chumy with gingrich. >> he was. >> joining us is senior advisor to the cain campaign. you must be in mourning? >> i am in celebration very much like the crowd in atlanta and people all around the country. i almost missed my car tonight i was waiting for an e-mail message from your people. my phone has been flooded with people around the country that are still supporting herman cain want to draft him to reenter the race. >> come on. you are a pro. this guy was caught with his pants down. after five hits are you going to take 15 before you say -- >> geraldo, geraldo, you have got to be kidding me. you are telling me now that we have a new standard in media, a

soiled standard quite frankly that you are guilty because people make accusations no love child out of wedlock nonsense and accusations that were unfounded by some anonymous sources by some fraudulent sources and now he is you are a pro, man. this guy was busted. he is lucky his wife didn't hit him upside the head>> do you stand the standard of guilt? i could tell you that. you couldn't stand the standard of guilt by accusation. geraldo, geraldo. you are a lawyer. give me one point of evidence of that herman cane did the things

that these folks accused themhi. >> this is something your viewers will want to hear. i spent time with her man and gloria cane. if you spent five minutes with these two layer idea longer than i have been alive that marriage you would have no doubt in your mind geraldo that he was telling the truth and these allegations were unwarranted and unfair. >> they may be as unfair as can be. we will have more reaction in the crash to the cain train. big exclusive wouldn't tell good morning america what happened to gardener in the

>> i am a lawyer. half of every penny he gave to ginger the pro ported miss industries he owes to ginger his wife now. -- gloria, his wife. that's another problem.

he has serious legal problems facing him now. >> come on geraldo. give me a break. i am not going to continue down this silly track. one of the things you missed in your political analysis despite the unfair pounding he has taken close to five weeks now he is second in the polls. he is not looking to spending this campaign. what it says is he clearly had the constituency and in addition to the story of night gingrich being a good story i think what will be critical is who is herman cain going to throw his support to in this race. >> and? >> i don't know. i talked with remember man. he said he is going to support him. he knows who it is going to be.

he says it's not going to be barack hussein obama. it will be somebody in that endorsement will come out shortly. i advise him hold back that endorsement for as long as possible. once it is gone it ain't coming back. >> what are the person's initials? >> i love competition. i am a conservative. i think the republican party when they say they love competition they want to clear it like a political bulldozer and choose the nominee you fill out the senate races in 2010 i don't want to see the presidential races. they are saying newt gingrich and john mccain but the real

action is mitt romney is turning into rudy giuliani. >> mitt romney. mitt romney. frontrunner. all of the king's horses all of the king's men all of the endorsements the money writing checks every where. he is a 36 r -- 68-year-old grandfather. he's flavor of the month it's a good month because it ends at the iowa caucuses. >> congressman labrador same question to both of you do your constituents consider him the 68-year-old grandfather of two or rather a man who is married on his third marriage and has a lot of problems with infidelity and hypocrisy? i think the american people are able to for give all of the mistakes we make. didn't prove whether he was loyal to his wife or not.

what it proved is he was not ready, his political operatives were not ready for a presidential campaign. >> i agree with what geraldo said. mitt romney is ready. he's prepared not only to lead the country but also win november. remember everybody talks about mccain couldn't win in florida. he won in florida. i think he will do very well. i think he will be the next president of the united states. >> i love having all of these republicans. >> thank you all. up next did he kill her for the insurance

foxnews.com. >> in his first interview after being released from an aruban prison he refused to detail what happened. robin gardener disappeared in the waters of the beach in aruba. now he does about that and controversial insurance policy and suspicions that will follow him forever. jose biaz by his side. with richard forrester watching live right now here is gary giordano. >> this may be awkward in front

of your son who is joining us but i have to start what washe nature of this relationship? was it as it appears a kind of internet faisal pate -- oo i think it's one of the largest web sites on the planet. it is not this hidden sub culture. it's huge. i met her on that we had a relationship, friendship relationship not paid for relationships. somebody asked me that. fbi and interpole knows that. this guy is cute. i like him two-days later the guy is a phony. she lived with a guy near her work whatever was convenient for her that was the life she lived. i knew that i expected the way

she was. she would tell me about times when her boyfriend would beat her up i would tell her to call 911. came to my house slept over for two nights. she moved into one of our rooms. then i told her that wasn't going to work out because she was still running around at night and i can't have that with the kids. i was really her protector. that's why this is so ironic. >> why aruba? >> she lost her job and said i am going to take the month of august off. this was in late july. she said take me somewhere. we went to expedia. i searched for discount travel. i went to expedia hot deals, advertising through expedia and i saw the marriott. i have got 675,000 points with marriott. the vacation was free. i went further to say robin i

want you to pay for your air fair. if you don't show -- robin is the kind of girl if she takes to you and let's go oh out friday night she will wait until friday night to pick what venue she wanted to go on. she is last minute she can back out. i said to her i am going anyway. that is how i picked aruba. >> so far you characterized her as flighty and promiscuous. is that accurate? >> i wouldn't say flighty, but the latter, that's right. >> what happened? >> we had only been on the island 48-hours when the incident occurred. we found a nice location people recommended and we went down there. we had lunch. it was a pleasant situation you want to jump in or get out of here? no let's go. our intention was to go in the

area out maybe 15 yards to explore look at fish look in the water. >> you had snorkels on and flirps? >> i didn't have a snoishg el on. the car was two feet from where we were. she was barefoot i had my tennis shoes on we walked into the water. in that area the wind blows out. i remember remarking it's weird because there's a big flag there. the flag was always blowing out. it was getting deeper and deerp as we go. at one point she is in my per riverial vision in my right. we are in 10, 15 feet of water. still enough to come back. i pulled her leg she turned i signalled to go in i turned that's the last time i saw her. i turned came up and took a gulp of water in my mouth in my nose because i had sneakers on as i

went out the sneakers absorbed the water. instead of being horizontal i am pretty angled and my buoyancy has gone and i am struggling now to swim. i am focusing me and them. i am thinking of my kids. at one point i am thinking am i going to get back. my focus is on me i. thinking she is behind me she is going to find her way. when i got to shore i didn't see her now what am i going to do prior to that we had lunch there were people there. i ran back, the score was closed. >> did you call help? you are giving way too much detail. >> did you call help? >> help me. help me. >> no. because there's nobody in screaming distance. no, i just ran to the location.

>> did you call her name? >> i turned there was nobody there. did i yell for her i don't think so. >> didn't you feel you owed responsibility as you struggled for your partner? they are shaying there's another issue that rubs people wrong. >> at some point you are focusing on getting back how can i help her when i need help? you don't kn -- i don't know. i don't know if i would have sacrificed myself. >> i had no idea -- i had no knowledge that she was having the same problem i was. she was barefoot. i had tennis shoes on. >> i have been snorkeling with my dad multiple times we hadn't used flippers or anything. if you notice you are snorkeling you can't see anything but the ground you have goggles you can't hear anybody you are in the water.

>> you ner suspected your dad with foul play in this 'n sy? >> of course not. >> yet i go back to that critical moment you are still in the water and we want you to respond differently to that emergency situation. i am sure you wish you did. >> don't you? >> absolutely. i wish i could have those moments back. >> were you a coward? >> i never -- that never crossed my mind. >> were you selfish? >> that never crossed my mind either. what if it were one of your boys. >> it's not like i thought about it. you go into react tive mode. self preservation mode i don't care wh -- i don't know what to say. easy to play monday morning quarterback. >> i think it's obvious there's

a significant amount of regret. >> describe the moment when you realize she is not there. >> describe the moment when you knew she was done? >> there wasn't a reason i thought she was gone gone. i took salt water in the face and mouth and swallowed some. i didn't think she was -- i never saw her struggle. i thought maybe she went out of sight now i am going to get help. >> why not stand there and say help me, help me where is my friend. isn't that human? >> if you were in this room and nobody was here. noble was in the building when you start screaming. there was nobody there. there was nobody there to scream for. i ran as fast as i could. i found witnesses -- i found somebody within moments. >> richard robin's boyfriend joins us from washington, d.c. what do you think so far? what do you think of his description of what happened?

>> i am disgusted geraldo. there is so many things there and maybe you will have to help me out through this to go point by point. there's so many things i could say to everything he said. this guy is a selfish coward. i am disgusted. >> are you the boyfriend she called 911 about domestic violence? >> no. i am the boyfriend that called 911 on somebody else actually. >> you called it on her? >> no, before she and i were living together. >> another story then. >> what is it about giordano that rubs you wrong? >> say for a second she went snois snorkeling. she didn't go snorkeling. he's scare have had of t she ise ocean. >> he saw her swim in the ocean

she was fine. >> i have been in the pool with her in the ocean with her but she won't go past her knees her was waist? >> you don't buy the whole story? >> no. >> which part rubs you the worst? >> the fact that he is trying to say she went snorkeling. she has hair extensions held in by blew. the salt water will eat right through that. she was particular about her hair and makeup. it is 5:00 in the afternoon. she was dressed ready to go out. her hair is done. she takes a lot of time and care to take care of herself. >> we will go to jose biaz who is monitoring you live. we will come back to tell us the explanation about that. what about his insurance policy

>> is it not a fact your client had a motive in her death? >> absolutely not. gary is a successful businessman. he has unfortunately his father is very ill and his mother is of age and he has spent a significant amount of money. he also has excellent credit. he -- there was no situation where something money at the level of only 1.5 million that's a lot of money to a lot of people but if you take a look at gary's financial situation it doesn't make sense at all.

we were prepared to show that. we would have shown 1.5 million which is a lot of money, money is money it would not be as strong a motive as initially looked at. >> i started staffing in 95. that year i had revenues close to $3 million in the grooirs. i built a new house for 1.2 million and the following year another house $1.8 million. i had two houses. i had money. at 1.5 million is a lot of money for people but i have no debt i don't owe my money i am not a gambleler. >> have you ever taken out insurance on a traveling companion before that? >> yes. she testified to the grand jury in maryland and said not only did she sign it not only did she agree to it she traveled with me

again. while i was in jail we were supposed to go on another crews. we went to desolate places. >> did robin know you were the beneficiary? >> not only did she know she signed it. >> i cannot ever remember taking out insurance on a traveling companion and hearing so much about it i would take the papers to her to sign for another location. >> she lived with me. i wasn't planning on seeing her until that day the travel day. she was going to take -- she was going to be in annapolis and take a cab to the airport. >> this is exceptionally prudent. >> no. we had a conversation. she doesn't -- the relationship with her family is not good. i told her about the insurance the default is it would go to the following people. she said i didn't want that to happen. >> we ended up going to the

location where the documents were found we discovered there was a video we notified the u.s. authorities of this video who confiscated it and ended it after that. >> we know she signed. my point is not that it was her signature it is unusual for someone to take such interest in insuring their travel companion. >> there is a statute against that. >> is it against the law? why is that unusual. 90 percent of the viewing audience doesn't have insurance even health insurance. i would call that unusual. i don't think this was unusual. >> everybody has a different path. >> you admit it rubs people wrong and it sets the tone for how people reacted to you. >> that's why i am here. >> robin's boyfriend commented

about the insurance. >> i am going to comment on the insurance but i want to back up for a second on the snorkeling. with the shoes this guy was wearing if he's an accomplished scuba diver why would you wear shoes? if you did wear shoes when you are running out to knock on the doors you ran 100 yards. >> the explanation as i understand it he had tennis shoes on because they weren't intending to swim in the deep water they were going to feed the fish and watch the fish come as they fed the fish. >> what were they going to feed the fish? >> right there the fish come to you in aruba. if he's running out there knocking on the doors he's leaving footprints he has sand all over himself. he told robin's mother he put his shoes on afterwards. he's lying. >> what about the insurance? >> if she signed it which maybe she did she had no idea what she was signing. he didn't tell her it was an

accidental death policy. >> what did he tell her it was before? >> maybe it was for lost luggage or trip got canceled. she is not that

>> once you carry the stigma that they will have the suspicion she let her go 1.5 million could have done more even if he didn't kill her. >> forever. forever. >> and... >> di don't know. i don't know. i don't know what's going to happen next. i don't know. all i know is that i am doing

what i think is the rht thing is to come forward to speak. i have been muted for four months. i am here at your disposal to answer ifany questions. that's all i can do. >> will you seek out her insurance benefit? >> i don't know. i have spoken to gary many times this has happened the collection of that insurance money is the furthest thing from his mind now. >> what about the process? >> they have exhausted all of their resources. what i have seen from the investigation is they don't have he was of the crime. >> you spoke to your sons? >> i did when i first got out of jail it's back to normal. they never believed it. i never believed it.

there's no convincing of my sons. >> my dad didn't have to say anything. i knew he didn't commit this crime. >> all right. voice of support from the oldest son. as robin gardener's boyfriend listens, rich forrester jose bias is on the phone. how are you doing? >> pretty gad, geraldo. you heard what richard said about your client that robin never would have gone -- he never would have gone in the water at 5:00 p.m. she had her hair done all ready to leave go out she wouldn't have gone snorkeling. >> he's getting close to a deaf ma' familiar may gos lawsuit if he knows what's best he should get council. number one why don't you ask him what happened the night before she left for aruba. he's so educated in predicting her actions did he know she was

going to leave him that night and go spend the night with another man? i don't think so. did he know she was going to aruba? i don't think so. >> let's take the focus off -- let's keep the focus on gary right now. >> it is frustrating to sit here and listen to someone who doesn't know gary and assault him and he doesn't know anything about the case to sit there and de face him. i would love to hear his version of the events the night before she left to aruba. >> richard, what do you want to say to jose? >> withhat i want to say to him what does the night before she left aruba have anything to do with her disappearance? >> make your final statement. >> where is robin.

if he's innocent why do you have to be by his side? why would ywould he bring his children out there and include them in something as horrible as this? >> like i said this should be his last interview. if not i am sure gary would be more than happy to release the fbi reports. >> what does my background have anything to do with her? >> does any one think she is still alive? does any one think she is still alive? >> you think she is still alive? >> no, i don't. i believe she is dead

>> good monday morning to you. it's december 5th and i hope you had a fantastic weekend. i'm gretchen carlson. donald trump ready to make his endorsement for president and could it be, drum roll, himself? is he still thinking about jumping into the race? what? the donald here live bright and early this hour. >> herman cain out of the race. who is going to get his support? this morning, we have a good idea of where the cain train is going to pull up. >> it's not a thing of beauty. miss u.s.a. arrested. we'll tell you why. "fox & friends" begins right now.