capitalistic dynamism which should drive stocks. jackie: it's not, but unfortunately since the housing crisis, interest rates have been held at zero for one of the longest spans ever in history, people have gotten used to that. they imagine if interest rates were going to be cut, it will boost the market, it will make it easier for those companies to hit hair earnings expectations and blow them out of the park. again, this comes back to the point at the top of the show with scott. this is a market that's seeing what it wants to see and what it's hoping for, and maybe if it puts it out there, jerome powell will answer its prayers. to your point, brian, it's not necessarily based in reality, and that's the problem for investors when may be holding the bag. taylor: our dow 40 watch continues. brian: you know who's good at watching dow 40? if charles payne, he makes money. he's here right now. charles: that's the goal. that's a big title. we'll try to make it come true. thanks a lot, y'all. good afternoon, everyone, i'm charles payne, this is "making

money." so the market is on autopilot and investors are loving it. let's face it, all news right now is good news. that's until good things, you know -- [laughter] until it's not, right? bekno how that works. -- we know how that works. i've got a rising superstar on wall street who says a pullback is due can, but it would be a buying opportunity. she'll explain. and i have two brilliant economists who are going to give us the unvarnished a assessment. and he's back, folks, the perm ma bull has raised his targets to the highest on the street, why brian belski thinks the market's going higher and how we get there. don't miss my take on blowing smoke on the inflation crisis, politicians trying the make you look really stupid. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪ charles: >> there it is. [background sounds]

charles: this is your captain speaking, the market is now on autopilot, right? good news is good news, bad news is good news, mixed news is good news. just sit back, relax and enjoy the ride. take a look at this, short term, midterm, long term, it doesn't matter, all the arrows are going higher. the question, of course, is how do we get to this win-win situation in the first place? because, remember, when the rally began coming into the new year, at one point wall street was thinking about seven rate cuts. seven rate cuts x. even as the consensus began to decline, okay, we won't get that many rate cuts, then the narrative shifted from, okay, we don't need the fed to be accommodative. if we've got a strong economy, that justifies higher stock prices, right? but then a funny thing started to happen. the data began to turn negative and turn negative in a big way. bam! [laughter] i don't know, okay. well, that's going to be

negative, what do we do with the rally baton? we pass it back to the fed coming to the rescue. i mean, of course we do. we just keep this thing going over and over and over again. and on that note, if you like bad news, you must have smiling from ear to ear this morning. take, for instance, housing starts and permits, both coming in below consensus. but this revision right here,11.28 million -- 1.28 million, your annualized rate. the original number was.3 -- 1.3. that's a big decline just from february to march. but if you like bad news, folks, you should be cheering. hey, it doesn't stop there. and there's more. try the philadelphia fed. [laughter] so it came down, it missed consensus, but it was a positive number. still though this is what you don't want to see. prices paid, prices received were positive. number of employees, average employee workweek negative. so we don't want prices going up as employment is going down, right? and by the way, the manufacturing component of

industrial production told was -.3 revised down from +5 to +2. the street was looking for a positive number. my first guest has been a rising supertar on wall street for a number of years now, says the economic data's starting to show signs of slowing but agrees for right now bad news is good news. citi wealth investment solution haves kristin finnerly. welcome to the show. >> thanks for having me. charles: you are saying maybe a pullback is due, but it's a pullback that people want to buy. >> yeah, certainly we would buy. even the pullback we saw in april,s that was more of a garden variety pullback with. we had two quarters in the s&p 500 back to back where you saw double-digit gains, so some of that volatility was to be expected. i think when we look at the economic data, the cpi print, retail sales, what do we want to see9 for the fed to be in a position to cut rates? we want to see a reassumption of disinflationary trends which we got a little bit, not a lot, but a little bit in terms of that

trajectory, and we do want to see a softennenning in some of this data whether that's in the labor market or in areas like retail sales. charles: so you're in the how many ate cut camp? >> right now we have priced in about three. we still think we could see three rate cuts, and this has been our belief the entirety of this year. we started 2024 thinking that we wouldn't get the economic day that we needed for the -- data that we needed for the fed to cut rate rates at least until the summer months. we thought the first rate cut would be in the summer months -- charles: so july. >> yeah, i think that's on the table. charles: is it better overall for a stock market rally to be based on a strong the economy or a weak economy and fed accommodation? >> so i think the one thing we have to look at in terms of we're not talking about a weak economy -- charles charles a weakening economy. >> weakening, because when you look at the overall economic data whether that's ploirntle even some of the manufacturing data that we've seen, it's still relatively strong.

t not contractionary, it's just a deceleration. and so i think the main thing that is driving the market, of course the rate -- the way the market is reacting to rates is very, very extreme. but i also think it's based on fundamentals. one of the big trends this year is a broadening out of that earnings story. earnings dropped in the u.s. market in q3 of last year, and we now to anticipate for full year 2024 about 8% in earnings growth, so that's a promising sign. charles: right. the irony is the street always has a big number -- >> of course. charles: the market rallies on that number as we get closer to the actual release, those numbers, we beat the lower numbers, then -- anyway, i want to talk about the consumer. walmart, obviously, perhaps the best proxy. u.s. sales about the same, but x fuel, we saw a big decline in the pace, 3.8 versus 74. transactions are up -- 7.4. your average ticket was flat. walmart doesn't have any pricing power, plus we know more

well-off a families are shopping there. is the consumer on borrowed time, in your opinion? >> i think what we learned from walmart's earnings today was really -- so two things stood out to me. one this trading town, who is -- down, who is shopping at wal-mart. i think the other interesting trend too was grocery sale. charles: right. >> so moving into grocery sales, does that say something about a services, about people not going out to eat as much and actually now cooking at home. and so that could obviously drive some of the economic data. but again, i go back to this, we're coming off some pretty resilient and strong levels. seeing a little bit of softening isn't necessarily a bad thing, and if bad news does become bad news, that's where you enter into a buying up opportunity. charles: second half 2024, some of your notes historically, defense outperformance performs cyclicals, rates outperform credit. you have a lot of folks who really want to buy cyclical and always want to buy international

particularly now because emerging markets, for instance, have underperformed so dramatically. try the stick with history? >> this is actually history going into an election year. charles: okay. >> so defenses outperform cyclicals, u.s. outperforms internationals rates outperform credit when we see an election. this is of course obviously; the number one question that we're getting, you do see some volatility the really around september, october and then you tend to see equity markets trend higher. the way we're positioning our portfolios right now, a couple of areas. one, this broadening out of earning. we like the s&p 500 equal weighted as opposed the market capitalization weighted. we also a like system of the mid cap space where you see profitable companyings that are -- companies that are poised for growth -- charles: is there an etf that captures that? >> yeah. you can look at the s&p 400, 600 specific because they have those profitability filters. look at this ones that are pro-growth with. charles: okay. great stuff. >> great. thank you so much. good to see you.

charles: you too. all right, folks, my next guest says disinflation remains the bigger risk out there, r are ia ceo lance robertson, lance, just to clarify for the audience, what does that mean? [laughter] >> well, it means slower prices. so there's a difference between disinflation which is slower growth in inflation their prices and deflation which is a negative trend in price. so what we're seeing right now with retail sales, again, a little bit about what kristin's that talking about, you're seeing shoppers starting to scale down here a bit. we saw retail sales a lot weaker than expected, negative revisions to prior months, so consumers are starting to slow down. they're 40% of that 70% piece of gdp called personal consumption expenditures. so as they slow down, you know, inflation's a supply-demand balance. so as that demand declines, you're going to get lower prices as companies have to scale down to sell product. charles: right. so you actually also posted a chart of income gains here recently. this is really a fascinating

chart. so we've got the top 5%, their gains have been just phenomenal. phenomenal. the top 20% just sort of trailing along. the bottom 800, though, moving -- 800 moving in negativer if story. the bottom two quintiles of -- negative territory. the top two quintiles are responsible for 611%, if -- 61%, and they still have some dry powder. do the masses have to wait for rich folks to. run out of money before they can get some inflation relief in. >> well, not so much. i mean, you know, the bottom 40% of earners, they're on the very low end of income, they only can consume so much. they tonight have much income to start with. the guys in the top 20%, a lot of those are your business owners, right? they're the ones that own companies, they own the businesses, and when that bottom, you know, 80% of the population begins to pull back, they scale back also. they see less sales, less revenue, they get concerned,

they start to buckle down just as a well. it's a psychological factor each more than it is just do i have money in the bank or not. charles: right. i've got to talk to you about this. i saw your notes. everyone is jumping on the power story, buying utilities. from '83 to '91, energy and gdp were always the same, and then after that i don't know what it is, but gdp always outpaced energy. now we see it's going to flip here, over the next six years it's going to be absolutely phenomenal. and some to have driving reasons for that, a. a i. and everything, but here's my problem, lance. i'm getting worried utilities are getting over their skis near term. >> and you should be, they are getting a bit ahead of themselves. this is a lot like the a.i. chase, right? you and i saw this last year, we were talking about in the first half of last year this big run in a.i. stocks and, of course, we had that big correction in the summer, 10%. a lot of those stocks cooled off a good bit, and and we're going to have that again. there's going to be e ebbs and

flows, but the demand for a.i., if the projections for art artificial intelligence are what they seem to be, we're going to have a massive increase in the amount of power consumption that we need, so that's going to require a lot more infrastructure buildout, that's going to be a big driver for economic growth over the next few years as well, creates jobs, creates activities, it's very positive for the u.s. consumer. so if, you know, what i would be doing now and what we started doing in our portfolios is to use opportunities on pullbacks to scale into some of these positions and have a portion of your portfolio allocated towards infrastructure over the next few years. charles: and we put someone, some that you think are buying mostly on the utility side, and maybe copper, metals plays associated with the need for increased power production on your watch list. i only have 30 seconds to go. i started this conversation off with kristin saying, hey, right now the market is on a autopilot. obviously, people want to ride wave.

how do you become more cautious? >> well, the problem is that bad news is good news for right now, but eventually -- and i agree with kristin, by the way, you know, history of presidential election cycles suggests corrections in september and october. she's absolutely right about that. at a some point in the latter half of this year, i suspect we're going to see some of this bad news get reflected. and as you pointed out, you know with, these very accelerated rates of earnings growth that analysts have right now, that's going to come down sharply as that realization comes in. let's not forget one thing, is in spite of everything else, it's the consumer that drives earnings. that's, that economic activity is where with earnings come from from. if they're slowing down, earnings growth will slow. that that will get reflected back into prices at a some point. charles: all right. and then maybe this thing they call sanity. lance, great seeing you, my man. [laughter] talk to you again soon. all right, folks, he's back. for a long time i was ribbing brian belski if he didn't have the highest target on wall street.

no more. he's saying 5600, and he's going to tell you why at 2:40. but first, individual names making monasteriesings, kenny polcari sees a lot of upside because there's a lot of stocks you've never heard of that are rocking and rolling. that's next. ♪ i'm friends with the monster that's under my bed. ♪ get along with the voices inside of my head. ♪ you're trying to save me, stop holding your breath. ♪ and you think i'm crazy, yeah, you thint guk i'm crazy ♪ (woman 2 vo) i have a great boss... it's me. (man 1 vo) i have people, people i can count on. (man 2 vo) i have time to give (grandma vo) and a million stories to share. (grandpa vo) if that's not rich, i don't know what is. (vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts.

if you're a grandparent, you know what i'm talking about when your little grandchild starts talking to you. something i couldn't hear for a long time. it's funny how something like just a hearing loss can have an effect on a relationship. somebody would ask her something and she would just walk right past them ( laughs. i just could not hear. these are real people who are now living life to the fullest, thanks to miracle-ear. call our toll-free number to schedule a free hearing evaluation and start your risk-free trial at your neighborhood miracle-ear. when someone new comes in, i take the time to listen to what's important to them. then i run a comprehensive hearing test to find out if they even have hearing loss. if they do? i'll custom fit a hearing aid that fits their lifestyle and their budget. with miracle-ear it's all about service. they're personable, they're friendly. i'm very happy with them. when i finally had miracle-ear and i could hear for the first time, i started crying. i could hear everything. i went to miracle-ear.

i went to miracle-ear. but i told you to go to miracle-ear. call our toll-free number today to start your risk-free trial at your neighborhood miracle-ear. i was hesitant to get the hearing aids because of my short hair, but nobody even sees them. featuring our latest technology, our hearing aids are nearly invisible so no one will notice. and they're so comfortable, you might forget you're wearing them. now i can hear my grandson again. call our toll-free number today to start your risk-free trial at your neighborhood miracle-ear store. your risk-free trial is only the beginning. we also provide you with a lifetime of checkups, cleanings,and adjustments,free. it's why we've been trusted for over 75 years. and we have over 1500 locations nationwide. i see someone new. someone happy. it's really made a difference. (laughing) call 1-800-miracle to schedule a free hearing evaluation and start your risk-free trial at miracle-ear today.

and they're all coming? those who are still with us, yes. grandpa! what's this? your wings. light 'em up! gentlemen, it's a beautiful... ...day to fly.

charles: so my next guest nobody for his skills in the kitchen and the stock market and, from time to time, he kind of cross-pollinates like, for instance, letting the recent news and event in the stock market majority nate. -- marinate. let's bring in kenny polcari. [laughter] i'm reading the -- >> i can't believe you did that. charles: i'm reading the report, yeah, we're going to let this marinate a little bit here. [laughter] listen, you talk about the algos, and they're having their way with this market, or right? whatever the news is, they find a way to turn into it a positive. i compare it to the -- who sacked rome. is there more to it than hype?

>> you know, i'd like to the believe there is because i'm still positive on the market, i'm positive on the economy, i'm positive where stocks are going. i do, though, think this latest surge up especially over the last couple of days has been really crunch by the algorithms, driven by what it was expecting to hear out of the ppi and cpi, and i walked away with a very mixed feeling about where where we are. i still think that inflation is stick by can and there's going to be a problem, but they're trying to change the narrative. they're trying to tell us that, you know, we're okay and that 3 plus percent inflation is probably where we're going to be. that's how i read it. remember, bloomberg yesterday came out to say 3.6% is the lowest it's been in 3 years. you know, they flipped that conversation around to try to make you think we should be okay with this, and rook what they did. they took it right up into a new century on the s&p, up to 53 and change, which i thought was amazing. and i love the fact that they did it. i'm 346sed -- invested, so i'm

going along. i want to let it marinate a little bit, see how the market reacts. charles: right. do you still see no rate cuts before the election? >> i do not see any rate cuts until the end of the year because in my view, i don't know what everyone's looking at, i don't see that the data demands it. your first guest, the young woman that says she still sees three rate cuts, i'm sitting there going, what am i missing in this conversation? if we're looking at the same day da, i just don't see it. i don't see one, never mind three. [laughter] charles: so i'm reading the report, of course, you talked about that super hot -- the it was a super hot ppi. i was in the same camp as you, you mentioned, okay, now we just have to wait until june 21st. we'll see if this rises, if this increase shows up in the cpi. but then you wrote a little dot, dot, dot, capiche. so when my italian friends say that -- [laughter] that's when they're getting a

little frustrated. >> i'm getting a little bit frustrated because i like to go shopping when there's a sale fake aing the place, and -- taking place, and they just don't want to let me in. i fully expected after the ppi that we were going to see the market back off a little bit. would have been a great opportunity to get some clients in, get some of my money reinvested, and i never got the chance because i wasn't chasing it. okay, i'm sitting back. this is not my type of market where i'm going to chase, you know, chase it at the all-time highs. i'm not going to add risk at the highs. we're invested, the it's not like we're sitting in cash, we're not. so that's good. but, yeah, the it's a little bit frustrating because to your point the ppi, which was more elevated than expected, those prices are going to come down over the next four or five weeks and then into the next cpi report in june. so yesterday means nothing because with it's next month's cpi that's going to be affected, i think, by the higher ppi prices we just saw. charles: so i've got less than a minute to go. and, again, you've been voicing

some concern although you do have exposure to the market. i received an e-mail from one of my subscribers saying people are cautious because we're told something supposed to happen, yet it continues to be elusive. just like the calls for a recession, a pullback seems to be right around the corner, but it never happens. you know, i -- listen, obviously, hindsight is 20/20. what are you telling people who are frustrated that we're not just gunning hoe, you know, all in -- gung ho, all in, go crazy, forget about being cautious, ride this wave? >> well, but you see, that's whr wrote that e-mail, that's why you have to create the plan. you create the plan and you execute on the plan, and and you don't try to pick tops and bottoms and weight and all that. yeah, i would love to see the market back off a little bit, but when it doesn't, you've got to look for the opportunities within the market. so you're staying invested. you're continuing to build a portfolio. you don't just sit there and do absolutely nothing every singling day when you've got money to put to work.

and, by the way, as a fiduciary, i'm charged with actually putting your money to work and helping you grow your money for the long term into generational wealth, and that's what we do. charles: sean, if you're watching, capiche. [laughter] thank you, my friend. >> but you've got to do it with your hands. charles: yeah, yeah, yeah. [laughter] talk to you again soon. all right, folks, there's another side to this weak cpi story. kenny just talked about it. there's a whole narrative about the economy that for some reason doesn't get out there there. we're talking about the real narrative, what it means for your pocket and your portfolio right after this. ♪ ♪ this is how a heartbreak withs ♪ investment opportunities are everywhere you turn. but at t. rowe price, we're letting curiosity light the way. asking smart questions about opportunities like advances in healthcare. and how these innovations will create a healthier world tomorrow. better questions. better outcomes.

if you have wet amd, you never want to lose sight of the things you love. some things should stand the test of time. long lasting eylea hd could significantly improve your vision

and can help you go up to 4 months between treatments. if you have an eye infection, eye pain or redness, or allergies to eylea hd, don't use. eye injections like eyla hd may cause eye infection, separation of the retina, or rare but severe swelling of blood vessels in the eye. an increase in eye pressure has been seen. there's an uncommon risk of heart attack or stroke associated with blood clots. the most common side effects were blurred vision, cataract, corneal injury, and eye floaters. and there's still so much to see. if you are on eylea or a similar type of treatment, ask your retina specialist about eylea hd today, for the potential for fewer injections. but st. jude has gotten us through it. st. jude is hope for every child diagnosed with cancer because the research is being shared all over the world.

♪ charles: all right, so wall street still with the pom-poms over that cpi report yesterday. remember, it came in .3 month over month. here's the deal though, let's just say that was the print every month for the rest of the year. do you know where the cpi would finishesome this would be the line here, 3%. the red line takes you to 4%. so, i mean, that's nowhere near the fed's target, so i'm not sure why we were cheering. let's bring in heritage foundation public finance economist ej antoni. listen, jay powell's aggressively defending his hikes, he says they're sufficiently rethe strictive. he has more or less promised wall street no matter what he won't hike rates income, but

your thoughts on the notion that we're on some sort of glide path to nirvana. >> well, or charles, if these rates are sufficiently restrictive, i would love to know why bank reserves have been trending up ever since the beginning of 2023. powell has overseen an expansion, not a contraction, of the money supply for the over a year now. the idea that somehow he is constricting things, i think it's just a fallacy, quite frankly. he is purposely reducing the run ah in the balance -- runoff in the balance sheet in order to give janet yellen some more breathing room. because, let's be honest, at this point the fed is essentially a captive of the treasury. charles: yeah. i think we all are, right in hey, you know, the street always kind of finding a way more recently to rationalize or simply ignore data that doesn't fit the positive narrative. one area, for instance, has been shelter. and marley rents. everyone that comes -- particularly rents. everyone that comes on the show says rents are much lower than the cpi, and they'll be

reflected soon. when whole thing began we heard in four months, in six months, in a year. i think i had a guest last week who said in 18 months, right? you actually posted a tweet that really is amazing because you say, yeah, there is a lag, but the increase in rents should actually be larger. you have got to explain that. >> so, charles, essentially what we're seeing in the housing market right now is a complete disconnect between real world data and what's being reported in these official government numbers. is so, yes, there is a lag between when information is collected and when it completely shows up in things like the cpi because information that's collected today will not just show up for the month of may, it can show up for the next six months because we we don't have enough data every single month, essentially, to get a full report. however, people need to keep in mind that the component of the cpi that is supposed to be estimating the cost of homeownership doesn't even look at home prices. it doesn't look at interest rates. instead, it looks at rents and

from that tries to estimate the actual cost of home ownership. charles: right. >> so unsed the of a 20 -- instead of a 20% increase like the official numbers say, you're looking at a 100% increase in about three years. charles: and that's why it's owner-equivalent rents. another eye-popping chart you posted, the average -- when people can get, you know, how far the average paycheck goes since 2021, you know, we go back to 2021 and it's just all negative, less and less and less. the paycheck goes a lot further than it used to go. we all kind of know that. and on top of that, i've got to get your thoughts on this. headlined today, billionaires are sounding the alarm on government debt. when it comes to this stuff, the trillions, people's eyes just glaze over. jamie dimon and ray dalio saying the government's got to do something about this. you've talked about this before. what's the worst case outcome if nothing is done? >> well, the worst case outcome, charles, is that that first chart gets a lot further in the

red, in other words, people's paychecks are going to continue to grow in nominal terms, but they're going to buy significantly less and less as the dollar continues to be devalued in order to pay for all of this runaway government spending. i mean, this has been a problem for quite some time now. we talked about this well over a year ago, how not just the debt and deficit are ballooning, but even just the cost to service the debt, the interest is well over a trillion dollars a year now. so while these folks are certainly late to the party, people like jamie dimon, i suppose it's nice for them the finally come around to the truth. charles: yeah, it really is. i mean, you know, at some point -- they do have an audience out there, and someone's got to pay attention at some point. you know, the argument is that we've been hearing about going off the cliff for 15 years, and it never happened. the problem is once you're off the cliff, there's no turning back. e.j., appreciate it. >> thank, charles. charles: my next guest does fantastic research on a bunch of things, micro edge data lead

analyst ulysses awesome, that is one of the best names i've a heard in my life. >> appreciate that. [laughter] charles: you ever go on a dating site with that -- >> it was a good character builder as a kid, i'll tell you that. [laughter] charles: we had initial jobless claims out today. that number, it was up a little bit last week, but for the most part, it was flat line, flat line, flat line. you have your own tracker, and it is not a flat line. >> it is not. we're at a little over 61,000 for the month right now, and we expect through the month we're probably going to see more, but there's two things to really keep an eye on towards the end of the month, and that's going to be school's over so how many school leis take effect and also it's peak hiring season for builders right now, at least in residential construction. with the spending having tailedded off a little bit, we're anxious to see -- charles: when you see numbers like those housing starts numbers today though, they were a disaster. >> yes. charles: maybe this won't be the

row robust -- robust hiring season. >> that's one of the things that we've been tracking. single family home construction has been contracting for basically 20 months now, we're building 20% less single-family houses hand we were in 2022, and we haven't seen as big of a layoff in employment yet, but we're definitely keeping an eye on it. charles: why do you think the government, initial jobless claim just doesn't move? i've heard so many theory on that. >> yeah. boy, that's a tough one. there's been a lot of seasonal adjustments but, you know, we're racking some different things. one of the things that we're tracking is the nfib and small business hiring optimism -- charles: let me just highlight this for the audience, right, because the number's starting to free paul, right? the last -- freefall. these are small businesses' plans to hire, they're just not planning to hire as much as they were. >> correct. like bigger companies, during earnings they're discussing layoffs. well, they have a footprint that they can compress margins and

get by without the lack of optimism that small businesses have. if you've got one location, you don't have the same power as the footprint yo you might have multiple locations, multiple stores. charles: right. how much of a canary in the coal mine is this for the overall employee? >> well, small businesses employ the majority of the economy, so the worse this gets, the worse things could get. charles: delinquencies, this number out today -- i mean, this week. so we knew credit cards were really starting to explode. >> right. charles: you broke down by age and income, it would be even a lot higher. >> correct. charles: you say keep an eye on mortgages right now? >> yes. so the new york federal reserve put out the household. >> credits report, and for the first quarter mortgages, 30 days delinquent have increased, they're almost up to 4% delinquency rate, and the fha therein again city has also been going up -- delinquency. one of the things we noted was basically skyrocketing as a percentage, it's a small number, but over 10% of fha mortgages

are delinquent due to job loss. charles: really many. >> it's one of those data points that a we'd like to find out why it's not meshing with the national merit -- charles: right. aye got less than a minute. i want to get your thoughts on there's a big push out there, it's starting to bubble up trying to get people to take home ec i withty loans. -- equity loans. it wouldn't cost the taxpayers anything, and we remember the time when everyone was. it was fun until it wasn't. [laughter] >> until it wasn't, exactly. and if we're already talking about people being in delinquency and rates rising, then adding more personal debt is not going to help much like adding more public debt that we covered before here. charles: right. great stuff. >> thank you very much. charles: you were awesome. thanks a lot. >> thank you, sir. charles: all right, bmo capital just raised its target on the s&p the 5600. of brian belski, once again, the perman-bull, on top.

why? what changed his mind? ♪ acting like we're animals. ♪ no, no matter where we go -- ♪ everyone knows we're just a couple animals. ♪ so come on, baby, get in ♪ you need them. they need a retirement plan. work with principal so we can help you with a plan that's right for your team. let our expertise round out yours. moving forward with node-positive breast cancer. my fear of recurrence could've held me back. but i'm staying focused. and doing more to prevent recurrence. verzenio is specifically for hr-positive, her2-negative, node-positive early breast cancer with a high chance of returning, as determined by your doctor when added to hormone therapy. verzenio reduces the risk of recurrence versus hormone therapy alone. diarrhea is common, may be severe, or cause dehydration or infection. at the first sign, call your doctor, start an antidiarrheal, and drink fluids. before taking verzenio, tell your doctor about any fever, chills, or other signs of infection. verzenio may cause low white blood cell counts, which may cause serious infection

that can lead to death. life-threatening lung inflammation can occur. tell your doctor about any breathing, cough, or chest pain. serious liver problems can happen. symptoms include fatigue, appetite loss, stomach pain, and bleeding or bruising. blood clots that can lead to death have occurred. tell your doctor if you have pain or swelling in your arms or legs, shortness of breath, chest pain and rapid breathing or heart rate, or if you are nursing, pregnant, or plan to be. i'm focusing on what counts. talk to your doctor about reducing your risk. ♪ your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

i bought the team! kevin...? i put it on my chase freedom unlimited card. and i'm gonna' cashback on a few other things too!

starting with the sound system... that's caaaaaaaaash. cashback like a pro with chase freedom unlimited. how do you cashback? when i was your age, we never had anything like this. what? wifi? wifi that works all over the house, even the basement. the basement. so i can finally throw that party... and invite shannon barnes. dream do come true. xfinity gives you reliable wifi with wall-to-wall coverage on all your devices, even when everyone is online. maybe we'll even get married one day. i wonder what i will be doing? probably still living here with mom and dad. fast reliable speeds right where you need them. that's wall-to-wall wifi with xfinity. - after military service, you bring a lot back to civilian life. leadership skills. technical ability. and a drive to serve in new ways.

syracuse university's d'aniello institute for veterans and military families has empowered more than 200,000 veterans to serve their communities and their careers. from professional certifications, to job training, to help navigating programs and services, we give veterans access to support from anywhere in the world. ♪ oops, i did it e again. ♪ i played with your heart, got

lost in the game ♪ charles: oops, he did it again. brian belski lifted his year-end target on the s&p is, 5600. now, he cited momentum that is likely to continue moving, so it's likely to persist. he likes it, 5600. let's bring him in, bmo capital markets' chief investment strategist brian belski. brian, i loved reading this report. my man, he's back! now, you admit that you had drawn a line in the sand at 5100 late february, it was a mistake. well, the report actually reads, we underestimated the strength of the market. now, here's my question, did you underestimate the strength of the market or the cube exuberance of investors that keep buying no matter how the narrative shifts? >> i think it's basically the same thing. so, by the way, thank you so much for having me back on fox business news. i've never had britney spears music -- [laughter] being from minnesota, i get a lot of prince bumper music but anyway, i'll take what i can get.

no, i think it's a combination of investors and exuberance, but i have another theory, charles, and the theory is i believe that people actually really believe in stocks again. and people are going to think i'm crazy for saying that especially given the performance that we with saw in 2023, but this year's market's very different than 2023. to me, it feels a lot like the mid '80 and mid '90s. i call it the golden age of stock picking, and i think we're going to have more and more assets, quite frankly, come out of bonds, come out of private equity, come out of real estate and come into equities for the first time in a long time. remember, we're still kind of unwinding a 40 year bull market in bonds, and the last couple years have been really tough. so what do people do when they lose money in an asset? they go find the asset that's working and that's cheerily equities. -- clearly equities. charles: and in the mid '9990s we got the rational exuberance

speech. now, i did think it was interesting because with you didn't change your earnings number, so how do you get to 56000 if you don't move earnings up -- 5600? >> great question. so when we published our year aheadpiece many november of 2023, we said base case 5100 on $2500 of earnings, bull case a 5500. and there's upside to 3260 in earnings -- 260. now the street is coming around to this 250 number, numbers have been kind of coming in. we think there's a really good opportunity for that number to go higher especially the second half of the year, and we think the big surprise sector's going to be financials. i think from a consensus basis, earnings are way too low, and there's still a lot of money to be had there and made there, and we think a lot of our institutional clients are massively underweight financials. charles: i also thought it was interesting that you see a more significant pullback is likely to occur, and you mote the

pullback in april with was 5.5 president. historic clue, during the second year of a bull markets it's 9.4%. so will the next pullback be greater than 9.4%? it's clear that you think it would be a buying opportunity. >> yeah, i think so. our line all along is we want the buy at a lower prices, obviously, and we think we're going to have another opportunity. to have only a 5% or so correction within a 2-year bull market is actually quite unprecedented. we think there's a chance that closer to a 10% correction, it doesn't mean we're bearish, it just means it's actually much more healthy to have a better buying opportunity. so we think that could happen in the summer and into the fall which will set up a fantastic fourth quarter rally especially with the likelihood of the fed moving after, in our view, the election in terms of cutting rates. charles: so you mentioned financials, and we've got a minute to go. you do have the overweight on financials, 13.55% of weight.

info-tech, information technology, overweight there too too which is 30. those are the only two areas you have an overweight on. you know, a lot of folks that have been coming on the show today and over the last couple of weeks have talked about a broadening out of the rally. you don't see that yet. >> well, we're neutral the majority of the rest of the sectors except for the really maul ones -- small ones. consumer a staples from a fundamental perspective, with we think they're really expensive. if you take a look at these other big, double-digit sectors like health care, like communications services, like consumer discretionary, we're stock picking there. we hi the negativity, quite frankly, with the respect to the consumer is way overdone. what we're seeing from a fundamental perspective is rotation into certain names. we really like the consumer longer term. i think aside from the growth can sectors, you know, our favorite sectors from a longer term perspective over the next 5-10 years are clearly

communication services, technology, parts of industrials and the consumer. charles: right. hey, great stuff, brian. it's good the see you back on top, my, man. we'll see if we can find something more suitable to bring you in next time. >> i would love that. a little prince, man, let's go. charles: you got it. all right. a shift so occurring in the consumer, there's no doubt about it. but you might be surprised where americans are choosing to save and what we're unwilling to give up. kristin benz joins me for the state of the consumer and the stock that you want to own there, next. ♪ go on, take the money is and run. ♪ go on, take the money and run ♪

nice to meet ya. my name is david. i've been a pharmacist for 44 years. when i have customers come in and ask for something for memory, i recommend prevagen. number one, because it's safe and effective. does not require a prescription. and i've been taking it quite a while myself and i know it works. and i love it when the customers come back in and tell me, "david, that really works so good for me." makes my day. prevagen. at stores everywhere without a prescription.

lauren:

charles: mentioned earlier in the show, wal-mart posting numbers and guidance that made wall street chair and the stock is up 7%. of course this is always considered a great maybe the best proxy for the consumer. but is it really good news in i want to bring in now kb advisory group, their founder christine. christine, wal-mart had no pricing power from their last quarter a year ago and they had, you know, that helped on transactions but what did they say about the consume fertilizer general? >> here's something that's very interesting, i'm not a big fan of wal-mart as you know. the composite of the consumer

that lifted them to that amazing performance was the high end consumer that makes $100,000 for more combined income. that's a luxury consumer. so i think that's fascinating and really tells you where the consumer and going and how they're shopping and we can kind of put to bed the oldtrope of people of wal-mart and they're driving teslas and mercedes and it ain't that bad out there. they're seeking value. charles: on one hand, argue they're starting to feel the pinch like everyone else and you say the best gauge with you with respect to the health and consumer and household credit card debt and funds to handle $100,000 emergency. how are those looking? >> well, not so great; right. the thing that sticks out the most to me is 52% of american consumers don't have $1,000 for emergencies. so everyone's just kind of hanging on by the skin of their teeth right now. charles: $1,000. oh, boy. i got -- i was going through the

bank of america daily -- they put out a daily spending, which i think is really great information. couple things leaped at me. first of all, entertainment down 11% on the 11th, may 11th, down 12% on may 10, down 10% on may 9th. it's been free fall here for the last few days. even airlines are in the negative. i thought we were sort of in the yolo, only live once and spend all the money you can. is that running out? >> it's funny your guest before saying we keep braces for something to happen. u.s. consumer withs all the unrest in college campuses and kudos to you on your speech. it was amazing. charles: oh, thank you. >> i think there's so much worry out there and, you know, consumers are kind of holding back a little bit. look what happened with mcd, starbucks. so i think the cracks are starting to show and the consumer is very, very much under pressure. charles: the same report had

something inintriguing that matches retail sells. yesterday resale sales come in and department stores come up and internet was down 1.2% and corroborated and department store spending up 10.5%. it's been up almost every day this month. what's that all about? >> i could be trite and say it's about ozempic. i think you've got to get yourself to the stove and see how you look when you lose the 30 pounds. that could be one part of it. the other part for the nonstore sales, i think by-now pay later is really just a nasty underbelly of the u.s. consumer and no one even knows how bad it is yet. charles: right. before i let you go, survey out obstructing cerumen summer travel plans and 43% of folks hitting the road for a trip this summer. 6% on a cruise and 13% camping. i'm not sure where i miss that had camping thing. you know, but is this a normal

layout here? >> they don't to want cook and clean when they travel and it's an easy way to take your kids, get out of town and all this equipment that everyone bought during, you know, the pandemic and now they've got to use it. that's what every is doing. system of articcharles: there'sd to college campuses. thank you, kristin. >> thank you for having me. charles: see you soon. any number of approaching from scalding -- remember in the beginning when the place was coming up and the white house really scalded un-grateful americans and showered everyone with all of the stimulus checks. then of course to telling them that they simply weren't smart enough to understand how good they had it. now it appears there's a two

pronged tactic going on, including just straight up lying. president biden has said on more than one occasion inflation coming into office and he's taking mea culpa on that. it's true that if he wanted to go back and look at where history was, when he came to office, household and business as far as inflation was concerned, it was 1.4%. inflation is coming down. and i hate the wording on that . i'm really a stickler for words. that applies that prices are coming down. come on. yesterday senator cory booker posted that inflation coming down with more than 60% a peak to the lowest level in three years. it's amazing. the real deal though, look at this chart that i retorted with. okay, inflation hasn't come down

at all. in fact, it keeps compounding and compounding at higher and higher rate. in fact look at that chart close enough and i don't know we've seen a more blistering move in inflation and in the 70s, the first spike in the 70s not looking agreeance as we're dealing with right now. egregious and wartime spending effort and they won't. it's all about the clean climate agenda and you'll have to get used to more gaslighting folks. meanwhile we know one thing and inflation is crushing americans. 41% of the country and now mentions inflation as most important family financial problem. wow. i mean, they deserve a break. i don't think they'll get one though. meanwhile ashley webster taking you for the final hour of trading with liz claman. ashley: always appreciate it. thank you, my friend. the dow's 40,000 party, what hook and hold,