across the board. jackie: yes. >> okay, by 50 to 100% if you don't stop buying oil from the people we're at war with. that's the discussion. it should be an open discussion. china should be shamed around the world. jackie: he will never say it. >> iran, made about, according to brian hook, former national security council, iran has made about $100 billion in the last three years from selling oil to china which is now up to 1.5 million barrels a day. taylor: we love you. >> that's where the tariffs should be. jackie: again the middle east is a mess. thank you, jobe. taylor: larry, thank you for being on the show. love you. mon moon with charles payne. equity markets near record highs, at record highs. it starts right now. charles: i will still take credit for it. tell larry, i said hi. good afternoon, everyone, i'm charles payne, this is "making money." breaking now, wall street

continues to rationalize the data in absence of positive inflation what is seen as good news but there really has been an avalanche of bad news but ambrosia for market bulls. it seems contradict at this. we'll get right to it with alli mccartney and adam kobeissi on deck. forget about earnings season, folks, if you want to see stocks take off, pay attention to conferences that calendar is filling up. we'll talk about the ones that might move the most. wall street legend jim grant on the path of fed moving forward, why he says the chance of rise in interest rates the next 12 months is higher than the market is expected. my take on the replacement theory that no one seems to be concerned about. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪. >> so, the floodgates have opened, right. you know the story, open sesame,

the door opens, closest is a me, what did he see? there it was all around a heaps of sparkling jewels and piles of gold. you know i thought about alibaba in that line when i was thinking about jay fuel. he essentially said open sesame for investors seeking treasure as he said closest is a me once and for all on a potential rate hike. he said unlikely the fed will hike rates. it is being restrictive and we believe over time it will be sufficiently restrictive. give it time. it will eventually wray inflation down. open sesame. nasdaq closed at all time yesterday. s&p joining today. investors are not surprised jay powell remained steadfast not hiking rates. an interesting thing happened. this is the fund managers survey about bullishness. notice in it spiked big time? april the market was down. a lot of folks saying you know what?

powell will stay the course, and so far they have been 100% right. it is not just your professional fund managers. also just not long ago we got very bearish at least individual investors did there was more bearishness weeks ago, versus bullishness. that is a fleeting moment. it has changed big time. bearishness is now down to 23%. everyone is sort of on the bandwagon that it is going to be great, professional fund managers, everyone, that powell will pull off this sort of magic so the treat right now ironically desperately earning for bad economic data and they got a lot of it today. so inflation ebbs for the first time, that is pretty good although the number -- there are some parts of this number was pretty good but the backbone of america's economy was dealt a serious blow, a serious blow. in new york state's empire state factory gauge weakens further in may. so from alibaba to alli

mccartney, ubs private management director. it is so pervasive, so weird to think wall street was rooting for bad news, and it got a lot of it today in terms of the economy slowing down, in some cases more than we want. >> it is fascinating the way people respond to this. like the beauty is in the eye of the beholder kind of thing but it is true. last week we had no news, that seemed to be good news. good news seems to be exorbitant and bad news seems to be rationalized. charles: right. >> what we got today you could also say was some, i'm curious, very curious to see what grant says. we may be shut down the path for rate hikes which is a small percentage anyway and we got a, at least the market seems to think that the terminal operate has gone down from 4% to 3.8%. so i think that is why you're seeing small caps rally risk on. charles: right. >> but, yeah, it is, it is a funny world right now when you hit highs.

charles: so in your blog you mentioned the uniqueness of markets being driven equally, right, by -- >> yeah. charles: you put macro data, micro data, phenomenon. explain this to us? >> usually we talk about the markets in terms of being driven or priced higher or lower by two things. first of all what's actually happening around different companies and what are consumers doing and that's the macro. the micro is what is happening to each company, what their earnings look like, are they increasing eps, et cetera. right now, to your point the market is so driven by any bit of news it can construe as positive whether it is positive earnings news, whether it is interest rate movements, whether it is the health of the consumer or retail sales going down which means we're slowing which means the fed may not be higher for longer. everything seems to be buoying stocks right now. charles: right. you have got that unique factor there. let's talk about, this is just one of the many smid small and

mid-cap. you've been talking about it for a while, to your credit. >> yeah. charles: it made a hell of a move. down compared with the broader market. would it be fine for someone to chase this niche of the market. >> you have to remember these things happen in phases, just like we see today another high after series of highs. highs beget more highs. you may not have bought in at the absolute low, but the phenomenon and macro and micro are still pushing you in that direction and again the relative and historical relactivity of the underperformance of large cap to small cap historically large -- charles: a largest ever, a lot of room to catch up. a lot of room to catch up. i went to the economic surprise chart, folks i have to show you how far it is coming. i want to get your thoughts what may be the thing out there no one is talking about because it

is one thing to root for bad data but at some point it can become too bad, can't it? >> yeah i -- charles: this is falling off a cliff here. >> this is falling off a cliff here but again is the data backward looking or forward looking? there is a lot of conversation especially as it relates to ppi and cpi. how useful is it? what is the integrity of the data with everything being revised in retrospect. i think whatever is going on there is six trillion dollars of cash no matter how great or not great people feel. investors are underinvested to. charles: when the rates come down that money will come out of money markets and find its way to either stocks or bonds or both? >> to some extent all news is good news. no matter what happens institutions and individuals are you know invested to. we already see it. it has to materialize. charles: alli, thank you very

much, open sesame. folks there has been a real big shift in flows intoriesky assets rather than safe assets as seen right here. of course this is where we were when everyone was panicking a couple years ago. this has come on really strong. so sew alli's point people feel very, very comfortable piling intoriesky assets. my next guest says stocks are due for more upside. i want to bring in the kobeissi letter editor-in-chief, adam kobeissi. adam, i will ask you what i was getting at with alli, is there too much euphoria out there? >> charles, i've been saying basically on your show all year, regardless what happens in this market we think it is still going higher and i still think that is the case, part of what you just mentioned, risk appetite right now is arguably the all-time highs. just about anything happening in the market is perceived as a positive event. we priced out four to five rate cuts this year. we're all-time highs right now. we actually had a 53 target on

s&p 500. today we raised that target to 5400. right now there is so much momentum it is a bad market to step in front of. the reality people are realizing the economy is not the stock market, and the stock market is not the economy. you could have bad debt, vice versa, the market is always right. charles: that is just one one points away from here, adam, how convinced are you? >> we initially went long months ago. charles: got you. >> our strategy, our strategy, keep raiding the wave until the trend breaks. if you're making higher highs and higher lows there is no point in fighting that. it will be pretty easy to determine when that trend breaks as soon as we see lower lows, and lower highs. you might lose out a couple of first percentage points but it is a lot more cost effective or profitable in the long run than timing the high in the market. that has been our strategy all year. charles: i have the s&p 500 heat

map up here. obviously much more green than red. some things stand out, particularly disney. netflix and disney. amazon and tesla are also down. i want to ask you about this, the technology area, that's driven this whole thing. there have been pockets of weakness. is tech as invincible as it was at one point before? >> we've definitely seen more volatility. look at nvidia, it is a few percentage points away from a new all-time high. a lot of of names you mentioned are up pretty sharply especially after the first earnings season. the market had a textbook opportunity in april to have a long correction everyone has been calling for. tech stocks many fall 20% from their high but we're right back towards the all-time high territory, a lot of them in the all-time highs. it is proven in the wake of large swings, buyers are stepping in. i don't think tech is looking any weaker now. we talk about a.i. a lot, 1/3 of

all s&p companies are talking about a.i. in their earnings calls. that has been a steady increase over the last two to three years. i think the market is getting the narrative it want and even though we believe we're only going to see one to two rate cut this is year i think you could see higher equity prices even without a fed pivot everyone is looking for. charles: that is amazing. we started the rally in october last year with seven rate cuts. got down to one rate cut. doesn't matter, no rate cuts we go up from here. you see more upside in the s&p 500, you talked about that. how much more in bonds and gold? >> we actually turned bullish in bonds and gold after being bearish pretty much the part of the year. the pendulum swung so far in the direction, we had no rate cuts priced at one point for couple day period. the pendulum from extreme dovishness to extreme

hoggishness. right now it is swinging back towards the middle. which is why we started buying bonds and gold. i think gold can go to 2500. i think we'll see all-time highs. there is great backdrop for political tensions, u.s. dollar pulling back. you have a lot of volatility trade is flowing into that, they want less exposure to bonds but also bonds in a way are doing well, because, yeah the fed pivot is somewhat returning but it's more into the middle ground. not six cuts, not zero cuts. maybe two cuts. i think that's a sweet spot for bonds and fold to continue this near term run. charles: we run out of time. you have oil down here. oil has been acting really odd lately. it has come down a lot. adam, great to talk to you. come back real soon. >> thank you. charles: we keep talking about earnings how great they have been. do you measure greatness because estimates were down or do you really measure greatness in abs suit terms? i have got someone who does amazing research on this. in fact i can't wait to bring christine short here in the

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♪. charles: so i would say just about every guest that's come on since earnings season keeps pointing earnings being strong, one of the key factors for their bullishness. what is kind of amazes me the reactions though have been really muted when it comes to beats, less than typical over the last five years. i mean really harsh when it comes to misses. so how good have earnings really been? i can tell you now my next guest does amazing research on earnings and other market trends. tmx group head of global corporate events research christine short. christine, welcome to the show. i love your work, your research. let's talk about this game, this earnings game. you and i were talking during the break. a year from now, let's say overall s&p, a year from now, but right now we see it will be $250 in earnings. >> yep. charles: we start towed get closer to earnings, that 250

becomes 230. they post 240, whoa, look at that beat. it is crazy. >> it is a cycle if you follow earnings you can recognize it a year out. we start really high, as we get closer to a quarter as we're kind of getting into q2, although q 2. bumped the trend as you get closer to the quarter analysts ratchet estimates down. as you get into the quarter oh, 80% of companies beat, what a success. what you have to understand analysts follow corporate guidance. corporations are conservative. they want a pop after they report. we actually beat on top and bottom line this quarter, weakness you're pointing out here, companies beating are being rewarded on stock price. companies that are being missing are being punished more than usual. that is one trend to notes. while the top line beats were good, top line was not strong, only 59% of beats. charles: that is what caught my attention. some of these companies paid a heavy price for missing on

revenues. you don't always see that. >> they should. you're getting bottom line beat for cost reductions. some companies have been rewarded for cost reduction plans. investors want to see robust sales and we weren't able to see that this quarter. charles: hence the actions. you do some amazing work. this is one of the pieces you do on late earnings report index. we've got a spike here. explain to us what we're looking at? >> this is something we call corporate body language, verbal, non-verbal cue that corporations give to their investors in earnings date timing. is the company delaying their earnings date longer than usual? are then advancing it, in advance when they would typically report? there is a lot of information to be culled from that. think about it if you have good news to share you run out tell everyone immediately. if you have bad news, sit back, digest, how to figure out how to share the news. companies do the same thing. in this quarter we saw more companies delay their earnings

beyond when they it typically would report versus advance them. 157 was our late earnings report. >> really? wow. >> 157 you can see this is the most uncertain companies have been in the last couple of years. charles: bottom line, there is extra degree of risk when that happens. i want to go straight to another thing that you do, i love this, your conference activity, because, i see, you know, all the time i'm sure people in the audience will see a stock they're in. it is up 12%, say 5%. but it is up volume is there, you say to yourself, well, earnings, what was the news? they're in some conference, right? right now everyone is waiting for the next conference apple will be at. waiting for some sort of a.i. development. >> yes. charles: you track these, these conference. >> just to give you a heads up, look investors will not have access to these. we have to wait for you guys to write about it, for you to report about it, journalists to give their take, what was said at these conferences. like i said this is more

corporate body language. it depends how you want to look at conferences. the way i look at them if a company i'm tracking is at all of these, all the big tech conferences i take that bullish for the stock. i look at who is speaking? is it someone in the c-suite. this is their chance to kind of bring that narrative together. it is bullish for the stock because you're out there and you're telling everyone about these great new developments. where i start to get worried when a company in that sector isn't at those conferences or they're pulling out of conferences t makes me think why aren't they there? why aren't they sharing great news. charles: all the surprises out there we fall investors in their portfolio, there is some clues. thank you, christine. >> appreciate it. >> all right, folks, so today's cpi report, listen it was pretty good but there is still some other things happening here including the big bet on the soft landing. that's very much in play you about should it be? we'll be right back.

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♪. charles: so much economic data that, it's important that you understand exactly what's going enand why maybe the street is

reacting the way it is. so lydia hu is here to help us with this. lydia. >> reporter: charles a lot to dig into here today starting with the cpi. the headline cpi number coming in at 3.4% from a year ago. that matched expectations. it was .3 higher from a month ago which was lower than the consensus which was expecting .4 of a percent but when we take a look at so-called supercore inflation, when we strip out the volatile parts of energy and food, that is surging, up higher than 4.88%. retail sales, let's take a look at those, those stagnated unchanged against a consensus up .4 of a percent. march revised lower to higher by .6 of a percent. down from an initial read of .7 of a percent. you have to ask here, charles, are these signs that the consumer is now pulling back under that heavyweight of persistent inflation? here are the highlights from that report.

gasoline sales higher, 3.1%. food and beverages, higher, .8 of a percent, department store sales higher by half a percent. internet sales down by more than a a pull percent. the empire state manufacturing survey missed consensus again. this was the sixth month where the reading was below zero. this is a real sign conditions for manufacturing are deteriorating. we saw the nahb homebuilders sent ment -- sentiment was slammed. to 41. higher than 50 conditions are favorable for home building. conditions for sales of family homes down from 57 to 51. single family homes in the next six months, 60 to 51. traffic from perspective buyers down from 34 to 30. lots of negative data that we're kind of digesting here but with

one has to wonder is this good news for anyone betting on the 10-year bond yield coming down? i will let you chew on that one, charles as i send it back to you. charles: a lot to chew on, lydia. mymy next guest says history has proven economic soft landing where inflation moves lower where economy remains resilient and earnings are accelerating is extremely difficult to engineer. january son square partner andrew graham, andrew, expand more on the theory for us for the audience. >> so the benign macro conditions that got us here included lower rates of inflation, the promise of fed rate cuts and resill yen -- resilient growth. that is what got us lower equity volatility and the lower equity volatility created higher p-e

multiples which we stand at 21 times forward multiples and that's okay, as long as the benign macro conditions continue. i'm not so sure today's data doesn't confirm that from the standpoint of the inflation data was relatively soft but, yeah, you did see the retail sales number disappoint net-net. charles: right. >> it is a really delicate balance. you need benign macro conditions to continue in order to have low rates of equity volatility, of realized equity volatility in order to keep the went fun times forward multiple intact. ones that breaks down you will have problems. charles: according to the bank of america fund managers survey 56% see a soft landing, 31% see a no landing.

11% say hard landing. that is up from 7%, but for the most part it feels like wall street is pretty sanguine about this? >> there is a little bit and on my commute to work every morning, i listen to it, it sounds like we're trying to fit the news to the narrative or, you know, and it just, and i worry that it changes on a dime and it changes quickly so i'm always concerned about that and, my guess is, is that, you know, the growth piece breaks down and, you see it a little bit in the consumer data. you see it in some of the earnings that are coming through from whatever, companies like home depot most recently and, you worry that kind of pulls back. then the multiples ultimately contract. you've got yourself a little bit of a problem or an issue. for the meantime what we have is

a bull market. bull markets climb a wall of worry. new high that is being made in the s&p 500 as we speak, let's see if it closes there, but if it does, there is further upside but ultimately it all rests on volatility remaining low so that the multiple, the forward multiple stays at 21 times or higher, and, history has shown that's just not repeatable. charles: all right, but in the meantime we'll share some stock picks because we run out of time here. you shared some of with the audience. kava group. vertive, everyone is jumping out of. they all look pretty good here. we got to get you back soon here, andrew, thank you very much. >> thank you, thank you, charles. charles: hey, my next guest says the economy is squishy all thee cpi is moving the right direction. let's bring in constance hunter. so i had to look up squishy.

>> a technical term. charles: you probably learned in economic terms. soft and wet, ground is squishy from the rain, softly gurgling, splashing like a sponge or emotional or sentimental. which one is this? >> squishy meaning not necessarily on solid ground, okay? charles: okay. it could have been emotional and sentiment tall with the stock market. >> both good emotion, bad emotion. we get excited and we get upset. as your last guest said the situation where we have a soft landing is very, very difficult to engineer. it only happened one other time in recent history which is in the '90s. charles: right. >> think about what we had -- charles: why is there such consensus it is going to happen now? >> i think the reason what we had in the '90s that confounded everyone while it was happening by the way, i went back and read through all the fed transcripts from '94, '95,

'96, even '98. we keep seeing solid stories on productivity. everybody is like this can't continue but yet it does. nevertheless it is not solid, right. it is squishy because we saw the retail sales numbers today. if you do a year-over-year basis, you do real retail sales, they reported nominal, not real you're basically flat. you're basically flat. sometimes i like to do a three month moving average with that, because april, march, get weird searsnals, weather effects year to year. even with that you're still looking at flat retail sales. that is goods consumption mostly. we know from the last gdp report, people said okay, i have enough goods, i want to go out to do things. i want to do experiences, i want services. we expect that to continue into the second quarter but, why is everybody so bullish you're

asking? charles: listen, that is just, who was the fed chair back then when, during the -- >> that was greenspan. charles: okay. so you had a fed chair who as really, really, they called him the maestro for a reason, right? you felt like he always came to the rescue of the stock market. the most days i hear powell speak is sounds like he wants to come to the rescue but we just got yesterday the deficit numbers. we see now delinquencies are surging, absolutely surging. >> surge might be overstatement. they are creeping up for autos around credit cards. >> i mean, listen, this pretty high. look at this, the yellow line what is that yellow line there? that is credit cards. these numbers are coming on. >> uh-huh. charles: here's the thing when you break it down by age it is pretty bad. >> it is pretty bad for the younger generation. charles: look at that the blue line credit cards and so forth. so i just, how long can we have this situation where money is extraordinarily expensive for people on main street?

you know most people believe now, most economists i think, believe wages will be somewhat flattish. they're not rising anymore. even job levers are not getting pay they once got. how long can the circumstance stay without falling apart something has to break. >> 100%. higher for longer is meant to slow economic growth. the fed's difficult will be will inflation slow fast enough they can start cutting rates or will we start to see a deterioration in growth? we saw a softer job print last month versus the previous months. charles: right. >> i think there is a risk. i would not be in no landing camp. is there a ish in the soft landing camp. i am squishy they have to cut-rates because they're behind the curve rather than ahead of the curve. we could get a quarter or two of soft or negative growth. i think we're in tenuous territory here. charles: so do i, i agree 1000%.

i talked with stuart varney, hemingway, how did you go bankrupt, it was gradual and sudden. half the population has run out of money. the estimate my -- stimmie checks are gone. we appreciate you coming on. how many rate cuts? >> i think we'll have at least two. charles: really? >> i really do i think they will cut twice. charles: the danger is they don't cut soon enough in your mind? >> the danger is they don't cut soon enough bus the jobs situation is at best concurrent indicator. >> i'm starting to agree with you on that one. constance, thanks very much, appreciate it. well continue to talk about inflation and the bond market with arguably, well he is a wall street legend particularly when it comes to the bond market. he is not looking at month to month stuff. he has deep stuff to share with you. we're talking about jim grant. he is next. ♪

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charles: wall street cheering even slightest decline of rate of inflation. this is what you need to look at. this is inflation this is the real cpi for real people, that is what real folks out there feel. like holding a roman candle and shooting it. it is burning holes in everyone's wallets and dreams. the wall street dream is different. the wall street dream is for rate cuts to help the bond and stock market. which is why you see here a active spike of people loading up, people loading up on u.s. treasurys. the yield is down almost 2%. for the year it is up almost 23% and of course significantly higher from the inflection point that who year inflection point when it finally broke out back in early 2022. my next guest has discussed the possibility of bonds having entered a secular bear market. i want to bring in grant's interest rate observer jim grant.

your interest is not only month to month small changes that everyone on wall street hangs on to but i will tell you this i have only one person in the year since you and i talked about a secular bear bond market that agreed with you. what is the pub back on this particular theory? >> muscle memory. bond yields began declining in october of 1981 and you have to be even older than i am to have a vivid recollection of what preceded it. actually you don't have to be older but, 40 years of not continuous but persistent decline in interest rates leads many to assume that's what god intends. charles: right. >> but you know the, what preceded the 40-year bond bull market was a 35-year bond bear market and, you know, i'm pattern, i'm trying to recognize patterns in those sciences and but you know i think it is

proverbial that big turns in trends, major things, are punctuated by seeming absurdities and evident and i dare say obviously absurdity that will punctuate this long-term bear market in bonds we're now beginning, what will punctuate that, the fed something like $17 trillion worth of bonds were priced to yield less than nothing in 2021. so confident was everyone and continued nerp, and qe and the magic of our hon terri mandarin mandarins. but the idea we're embarked on a 40 year, 35 year, 20, bull market, bear market in bonds is, is not a welcome one on wall street. charles: it's not. jim, yesterday we learned that, that our deficit has climbed precipitously, over three trillion in the last year, getting closer to $18 trillion. what are the implications of that for the bond market?

>> well, the bull case is that supply is of no moment. that there is just as much demand as there will ever be supply, because the, because the united states dollar is the coca-cola of monetary brands because this country is invincible. you know so the maga people agree with that, at least in some of their points but i dare say by their actions so do the democrats. there is a conspiracy of complacency with respect to the public debt. exactly no one within the city limits of district of columbia cares as the ap reported a little sadly over the past weekend. charles: right. >> but you know, to me, so there is a very smart economist named john cochran. he contends that inflation is not a monetary phenomenon, it is always and everywhere, john says in so many word as fiscal one and i think there is something to that in history but certainly big debt is not a bullish feature for the bond market,

right? or not to be t could be if turned new deflationary. charles: right now, so another thing that just developed, developing, this trade war. we already entered into one, no matter who wins in november there will be a march sherr trade policies and trade war will go up. bill dudley is really upset about that ironically really upset and upset what donald trump may fiddle around with "the federalist" reserve but i read an article in 2019 where he actually suggested that the fed counter whatever trump was doing on tariffs with fed policy. sounds crazy. i doubt he will say the same thing about biden but you actually wrote about similar, about this washington meddling or, you know how political the fed can be just last week. >> yes. it turns out that there is a long tradition of presidential meddling in the federal reserve. franklin d. roosevelt secretary of the treasury henry morganthau

was a great buttinski, used stabilization slush fund to manipulate rates and end-run the fed. harry truman butted in. called the federal reserve chairman as a whole on sunday, don't raise the rates. president nixon, republican was known to have a view on rates which he communicated to arthur burns. charles: and arthur burns later wrote about that in his biography. >> he admitted in so many words being susceptible to mattery. not the least lyndon johnson wanted william martin to know how much, how intensely lipped done johnson did not want him to tighten monetary policy before the election. monetary policy as political as the new york city council. inherently so in the constitution. gives monetary power to the most political branch of congress, our friends in "the new york sun" pointed out, the house of representatives.

they have delegated it wisely or not to the federal reserve but inherently a political topic. bill dudley is off base. charles: he is really off base. >> circumspect the first word that jumps to mind when somebody says donald trump there is some risk. my goodness, it is not just the fed is doing a great job it couldn't stand a little bit of monday morning quarterbacking. charles: i would love to see congress take back some of the duties from the federal reserve. >> yes. how about like don't try for inflation. the fed is on record, it seeks to impose a 2% tax on your money every year. who passes a tax? congress should pass a tax. not the fed. because it felt right. charles: jim, great stuff. wish we had more time. always great. folks, we'll be right back. (marquis) with a custom private 5g network. (ella) we get more control of production, efficiencies, and greater agility. (jen) that's enterprise intelligence.

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your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire charles: my next guest says don't fight the tape and don't fight the fed.

kip, you say there is direct evidence the market is discounting the inflation story. more upside from here? >> more upside today. since the birth of qe some interesting things have happened as pertains, the fed and the bank of england and ecb acted in complete coordination and act to gather. we get telegraphing from the ecb that they will be cutting rates in june meeting of look that will follow shortly thereafter, utility stocks going parabolic, very interest rate sensitive. all these signals, 10 year yield, lapsing telling us what the fed will do and inflation

is in the rearview mirror. that is the view the market is telling us. the best time to belong stocks in a presidential election year through the month of august. charles: you talk about copper and implications for a strong global economy but the global economy is strong, why would central banks be cutting, looking at china, can't get its act together. the utility play, but copperplate, a electricity demand for economies. >> it is part of that as well, large borrowers of money, central rates are restrictive too long. the federal reserve shouldn't

have been here for a long time. rates are 1% higher than they should be. the feds got 2 to 3 rate cuts from the beginning of the year. markets are discounting is is that and we think that will continue. we are hitting extreme levels on some of the closely most watched momentum oscillators. nvidia reports option are accounts looking to take profits into that report. neil: tech profits off the table before nvidia reports? >> for trading accounts early. charles: small-cap looking better. there are some but they are looking better. time to get more aggressive. >> last time i was on your show that was the most dangerous

positions, etf and some, people can buy that up 40% in the last 3 or 4 months. will that news continue? 20% plus below their all-time high and we like the miners here, gold is near an all-time high, hit that last month, minor etf is still 20% below its all-time high, up 40%, we like the small caps. charles: thank you very much. i want to talk about something, birth rates or the birth rate crisis, it's getting worse. i'm seeing more articles but no one seems to be alarmed. by 2030 the working age population will decline, belgium, portugal, france, spain, italy, germany.

as those warm bodies are replaced by a i, it's hitting of the labor force right now like a tsunami. don't forget the robots coming for a long time. in south korea, germany, japan, china, what they have in common is big manufacturing economies. if you think a perfect world comes with robots and ai, that's fine but i think we need to do things, conquer things, not just beating creatures in a video game. there's been a decline of folks who want to work, look at how many people think they won't worked past 62. you are going to work, we are starting to have kids again and that is fantastic as i hand it to ashley webster in for liz claman.

ashley: no robot