unemployment rates you had in country. before 2:00 p.m. let's get a quick check on the markets. stocks are mostly up. this is a continuation last week with bond rates falling. that is boosting most of these equity markets. lyft reporting after the bell today. this is more of that pure play rideshare relative to uber we were talking about earlier which is a little bit more of a mix of a dirt sort of business, freight, transportation, uber eats. brian: lyft doesn't get into any of that. taylor: this is pure play north american rideshare. jackie: with respect to uber to try to gain some share in this market. i like that strategy. don't spread yourself too wide. work on core business. if it us rides, get that right and get customers to use your platform. let's see if it works. brian: charles payne core business is making money. get it right. charles: i'm like coolidge, i'm in the business of business.

or marion berry. brian: similar. charles: i'm charles payne. this is "making money." right now the post-fomc rally continues but something feels odd, right? earnings beats are often greeted with big-time selling. just take a look at disney today. the street still sees fewer rate cuts than the dot plot. historic rates are above average. we kick it off with alli mccartney and darius dale. americans are unhappy with joe biden and jay powell. many have given up hope. maybe giant government is not a good thing after all. brian wesbury will give his take. darrell caulk kins why the jobs report hit the jack bottom. my take on not giving up on your pursuit of happiness. all that and so much more on "making money". ♪. charles: all right, so we opened under some pressure after the best three days for the markets since last november. now interestingly over that same

period as the market was coming up pessimism was moving in the wrong direction. almost all the different pessimists and gauges we see moved further toward pessimism, everything. even the average here. so it really is kind of interesting. a lot of folks were feeling more pessimistic, even as the market was coming back or at least finding some footing there. of course risk appetite is a little bit different. risk appetite on the other hand has begun to shift. look at other times, reopening boom, exiting the european crisis, coming out of the great financial crisis, that risk, that desire to take on more risk is a key element if you want a sustained rally. here is something we have to look at that, everyone is getting excited about, expectations that earnings are going to get better and better and better as the year goes on the we'll see but that's right now. where folks are thinking about. of course one other thing we've got going for us is history. history is on the side of the market for investors. coming out of a bear market,

first year of a bull market you're obviously up but the second year not a bad track record. you see all green. not up as much as the first year but not a bad back-to-back full move. my first guest says okay, she remain as buyer of equities on dips and bonds just to lock in these peak interest rates. joining me ubs private wealth managing director. alli mccartney. how have you been? >> yeah. i want to talk about this. you and i are big what happen in history and looking at the data. the other thing that points to a above average year, remember, average s&p year is nine 1/2, is election year. we're six months out. so i think thematically although you have some contrarianism, pessimism you're seeing we can expect both volatility and expansion. charles: because of all the money pours into the economy? is that sort of -- why election years? >> i think this is just my

conjecture. i think that people want to make it into something bigger than it is so they hold off for a bit and you see some of this volatility and buyers strike. you see people go in when they get more comfortable and have some result. charles: let's talk about earnings. these are technology earnings, xlk. s&p 500 tech names. companies that beat the street they have gone down. companies that missed have gotten crushed, right? so is this really when you get to a place maybe stocks are priced for perfection at least on a short-term basis? >> i think certain stocks are priced for perfection and largely it is the universe you've been showing. charles: right. >> there are a lot of stocks outside of big tech and a.i. done very well. u.s. housing stocks, industrial stocks, health care stocks, so i think what we're looking at is individual data and expectations matter. charles: right. >> but overall we're beating by a wider margin, 8% than we usually do at four. charles: i'm from the school i

like when the street is pessimistic or not looking -- when i see this, right? the earnings expectations going into the fourth quarter, i mean golly, that's huge! i prefer to see it there, right? because that is easier murder dell to jump. could something like this be a headwind for the market? >> it could if we get too far out oaf our skis but i think when you actually look at valuations, if you take the average valuation, right, if you stay we're trading at you know, apart from tech which is probably closer to 25, if you say that the market's trading at or just above his tore calls, well okay, so that makes you think that there's some room for you know, moderation or correction. i'm thinking about it a different way which is history although it's useful has never had 15 years of free money and globe monetary expansion. charles: right? >> so maybe, maybe that is not priced for perfection. maybe there is actually is some more upside. so if you can get in at 5000,

right, have a couple great days where the narratives on the fed and earnings come together, then there is money to be made. charles: so last month the etf flows are pretty simple. cash and growth. that's where it was, right? that's what is working. you get a nice yield. then you get, you've been getting paid pretty well if you own growth stocks. the other end of the equation, massive outflows in small caps. is this something that people should, i know you like to be positioned right? you're not really a chaser per se. charles: no. >> some are looking at making money in the market, you wouldn't go with the strategy? >> i wouldn't. i tell you why. look at two here. small cap equity we talked about this a lot, been a huge beneficiary of the last three risk-on days where yields have backed off. that -- charles: yields go down is really good for small caps? >> investment grade and high yield, we don't need to trade out of it. if we know we're getting five, 6, 7%, if we can put it for example in a tax advantaged account and keep that we don't

have to worry about the march market of daily interest rate volatility. i do believe in all of those but i believe positioning makes sense for me given the left of comfort come in from the fed and via job market data. charles: before i let you go, you see increased volatility, earnings reactions which we're already seeing. >> yeah. charles: disney, palantir today, geopolitical escalation, the u.s. election we kind of touched on and fed policy interest rates there is still something of a coin toss at least near term. no one can pinpoint where this is going. >> let me say one quick thing because i know i'm out of time. one thing here inflation is going the drinks we wanted but i think a lot of these things figure into the bigger risk and oil gets more precious. charles: really? >> because of geopolitical risk ands election risk we start to color cpi and that changes a lot of this. charles: all right, great stuff. love that dress by the way. >> thank you. charles: here is where we are right now. my next guest says that friday's

jobs report was actually a dovish elixir for asset prices after a week of conflicting catalysts on the policy front. i want to bring in 42 macro founder ceo, darius dale. >> good to see you, charles. charles: you know you mentioned the conflicting data. >> yep. charles: going into the jobs report we've seen stories of stagflation rocket, really go higher. of course jay powell said he couldn't see the stag or the inflation. where are you in the economy in general? to your point the data is conflicting? >> so the economy is hanging in there. if you look at gdp final sales above trend at 3%. we're not really concerned about the economy when it comes to stagflation. we're more concerned about asset markets and the fed's response to that. for now the fed's response is asymmetric, i e. jackie: they will cut if it doesn't grow fast tough or will hike if it remains above trend. if inflation continues to remain above trend? charles: how much longer,

everyone feels saying it is okay. in january it was the weather even though i was shocked economists were surprised it got cold in january but anyway if it stays above trend much longer woken the fed even have to acknowledge that or take action? >> well they don't necessarily have to acknowledge it by taking action in a hawkish direction. it can continue to delay the dovish action, could have this with treasury policy could downgrade -- charles: you don't see the fed hiking rates under any circumstances right now? >> very unlikely. charles: really? start with some of your active themes. start first and foremost with growth? at least it is slowing down. >> slowing down from the well above trend last year. economy remains resilient. we see low probable of developing recession here in the u.s. economy. charles: inflation, we talked about that. neel kashkari was talking. someone said he sounded like the reincarnation of paul volcker. neel kashkari.

>> neel kashkari. >> i'm out of here man, see you later. charles: he swings, it is really hard, at some point it feels like we cannot necessarily ignore that because coming into this rate hiking cycle jay powell more or less said i'm not going to be arthur burns. which not only means i will not cut too soon but i will not fall asleep at the wheel, if inflation is there we will seize it, we will attack it. >> jay powell is being arthur burns right now. there is no ifs, ands or you buts. inflation remained above trend. think about leading indicators of inflation, labor costs are moving in deleterious manner when it comes to inflation outlook. charles: policy? >> policy is getting very interesting. for most of this bull run we've seen since late october we've seen monetary and fiscal policy rowing the boat in the same direction. we now have monetary policy continuing to go down the awkward dovish path, ignoring all the inflation data. treasury financing policy. gotten more materially hawkish. likely to get very generous for

asset market as we head into the third quarter. charles: it is so tough for jay powell honestly to do his job with fiscal -- we just had the conversation with alli. money comes into the economy during presidential elections but this time it is mind-boggling. i have to ask you about this. i took parts of this tweet. >> handsome guy? charles: not only handsome but humble. i have a pretty big brain. even among institutional investors i can't figure out whereas set markets are likely headed based, dot, dot, dot. i feel bad for investors that lack sophistication and risk management systems to guide portfolios during times like this. if you're out there swimming naked managing portfolio risk based on how your gut makes you feel, dot, dot, dot. this is a serious shot at people who don't have your sophistication. >> no. charles: may be realistic right. darius, what do you tell people though? they're in the market. trying to make it work. what is something basic about

risk management everyone should know? >> i will answer the question i think i should answer. this is not a shot at people who lack sophistication because what i'm indicating even most sophisticated investors don't have idea where the market is going. >> i got you. >> you need risk management systems in order to make the right decisions in your portfolio. charles: what would that be? because here is what i see, i see a lot of times when it comes to retail investors and you know, they stomp out of something and next day it is up they get upset. next six months later could be down 50%. they're emotionally driven second to second. what do you say to anyone like that, hey i'm having trouble with the market but they're hooking at it so myopically they will never make money? >> the most important thing for investors to remove your emotions out of it. the number one way to rule out emotions get rules and stick to them when your gut tells you

different. charles: pleasure. mr. big brain. see you later. what if a dovish fed is not the cause of this market moving higher? michael camer says that big move on fed day, there was something else going on. he will explain it. also we'll talk about what is really happening in housing. maybe all the economists have got it wrong. ♪. maria and julio thought their life would never slow down. then one day, it finally did. you were made to find inner peace.

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gentlemen, it's a beautiful... ...day to fly. charles: all right, so last week my next guest actually posted comments about shelter inflation rising again and sure enough yesterday the new york fed survey of consumer expectations proved him right, i'm talking big time. went from double, almost doubling with home price changes that consumers anticipate. so let's bring in capital management founder, ceo, michael kramer. michael, well over a year, ever since powell began this rate hiking cycle and we started getting this economic data in, every single time, cpi, ppi, don't worry the data is old, it is long, housing is coming along, there is three month lag, there is six month lag, 12 meant lag, housing is coming down.

right now looks like housing is going up. what do you say about this? >> that is the thing, housing prices did come down a little bit. charles: but nowhere near what the experts were telling us would bring the overall cpi down to a place where we had the soft landing. >> it is based on theory and hope, right? so the reality is, howing prices if you look at the latest case shipmenter data, show there has been an significant upturn in housing prices in february were up about 8%. so the consumer price index uses that owners equivalent rent metric which lags case-shiller by about 18 months. we're right now coming into a spot where we could actually see the cpi metric begin to bottom and turn higher. >> again new york fed, from a year ago. >> it wasn't only the rent expectations went up as well. charles: no, it is crazy. all shelter numbers are up. if this number does remain persistent where it is, we're kind of accepting higher for longer, what does it do for the

fed though? >> it makes their job a lot more miserable t puts hikes back ontable. charles: hikes on the table. a lot of people don't want to hear that. fomc he had a pretty confident press conference, pushed back against many things, many thought it was his best. the reason the market rallied. you said having to do with the vix. >> going into an event you see implied in volatility in market rises. ones the event risk passes 2:35, 2:40 you see the vix basically plummet and s&p 500 rocket higher. people start selling hedges, value of options, market makers have to buy the short s&p 500 futures back they were hedged against. >> right. >> what do you make of this? so we got here the vix had broke through 21 intraday but it closed below there. you know i thought that was a pretty good sign it closed below

there but it's been down here for so long some say it is complacent. some say it doesn't hold the same significance it once held before because this used to be a major indicator for stock traders? >> it is. basically trading with the complacency you're seeing in the credit market with high yield credit spreads. this is reflection of easy financial conditions. charles: let's talk about yields obviously bond yields down, stocks up, that is a pretty good arrangement. been going on again. go back to the fomc meeting. this is the two year. bouncing around key moving averages. what is the key number here, whether it is the two-year or 10-year on the yield side maybe we can really breathe a sigh of relief? >> if you break the 4.75 area, you can see it has been a top here, a top here, you can draw across. charles: resistance a couple times, then it became support. >> that is also your 50-day moving average but if you go back historically and look, last couple times we got into the 50-day and bounced you have gone

up. charles: this is it? we -- >> now you have to watch that level really closely because if we start going up again the next spot is probably over 5%. charles: let me before you go then, where does this take the market? the s&p really making a nice move. the s&p is back over. the three sessions are the best three days since going back to november. we're up a little bit this morning double top, pullback, where do you think we're going? >> right now the 5200 area is a really important spot because you have that gap fill over here. and you're at the 78ish% retracement level for those that fall fibonacci which is another resistant level at 5200. if you were to draw a trend line out over here you basically come across hitting up against that trend line. charles: this is big, big spot. >> if you push through that, you're on to new all-time highs. very simply i thiospira nation from -- explanation from there if not you're being 5000 area.

charles: got that, got that. feast or famine. mike, thank you. >> so the treasury department churning out cash like never, never before, well you can't, i tell you what, i want you to take a guess how many millions of dollars you think the fed is printing out the federal government to pay these debts because of big government? you tweet me that. meantime brian wesbury is here to sound off on it because he has got a pretty dire warning after this. ♪. as an independent financial advisor, i stand by these promises. as a fiduciary, i promise to be the financial steward that you and your family need. i promise to put your long-term financial well-being above any short term transaction. everyone has a big picture. my job is to help you invest in yours.

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charles: well a new poll spells out trouble for president biden but also underscores economic misery so many americans are feeling. gerri willis here with the details. >> reporter: charles, you got that right. confidence in the president to do the right thing for the u.s. economy, well it is down for president biden. look at this cratering, right? the bounce in confidence for jay powell at the start of the pandemic has also faded a lot too. take a look at this. this is just one train wreck happening here. it looks like some of this might be longer term decline in confidence in the federal reserve as an institution. now, inflation, most important financial problem amazing all americans although less for lower income households who are more worried about paying debts,

health care costs and a lack of cash. get this, only 1% of upper income households are worried about cash. now a big reason for this is the two million dollars, two million dollars, being minted per minute, not month, not week, not hour, per minute by the treasury department which paid out a total of $89 billion last month. now this has created a conundrum for the fed. they can't cut-rates with rich folks spending but if they don't cut-rates rich folks will have money to burn. charles, back to you. charles: good stuff, gerri. my next guest says economics has become government watching. joining me first trust advisors chief economist brian wesbury. what exactly do you mean by that statement? >> yeah, charles, you know, we never had a bigger government in the united states. if you take federal government plus state and local government spending and then add in the

costs that we all spend to comply with regulations, i mean just think about the money we've spent just to do our taxes every year, it adds up to 50% of gdp and, that's the biggest government has ever been in the united states. in other words, no matter where you turn, you run into some kind of government rule or government competition or you're trying to get a tax break or a subsidy. charles: right. >> and then at the same time the fed has become massive and we talk about all day long whether they will raise a quarter or lower a quarter and that's all we do. i think we should be focused more entrepeneur on theship and innovation and technology and not government but government slowly but surely growing relative to the private sector. charles: you know what? you're 100% right and sadly though it ain't getting better, right? >> no. charles: private treasury is expected to increase almost two trillion dollars. as long as that happens, it sort

of puts a floor on my mind how low rates can go, right? these auctions, some are successful, some aren't. when they're successful more often or not short duration, it is bad for taxpayers because they have to keep doing it over and over again. one thing really bothers me, brian, how gerri set this up, as long as rates are so accelerated separates the gulf with the haves and assets appreciating than have-nots. only thing they get out of it is higher credit card bills and auto loans. >> train wreck for jerome powell and ben bernanke, if you think about it, when the fed printed all of that money, we'll come back to how much they're paying here in just a second, they inflated the world. so if you own assets, if you own your own house, if you own stocks and you have investments in an ira and 401(k), you won.

if you don't have assets all the costs in your life went up, all your gas, electricity, food, education, everything that you spend and as a result, we have, this whole attempt to print our way through covid created a bigger gulf between the haves and the have-nots. that is what government policy always does. it unfortunately too few people realize it. and then, this, we have so much debt, it is two million a minute. it is unbelievable. but here is another fact that people i don't think realize. the federal reserve, because they pay interest on bank reserves, this year they will pay private banks, private banks, the people elizabeth warren hates, already, they will pay them 250 billion-dollars this year in interest on the reserves that the fed created. charles: yeah. >> i think this whole new

monetary policy system is a disaster waiting to happen. charles: you know, it is so amazing you point this out because it is sold, modern monetary theory is sold as a way of leveling the playing field. all it does make it a lot more skewed. to your point pay banks $200 billion not to hend to main street seems almost criminal, it is nuts. if you say there is a rate cut, the only thing you can surmise it would be politically driven? >> right. i see some evidence of economic slowdown but if you look at the bigger, broader picture 3% gdp last year, second quarter of this year right now the atlanta fed says we're going to have 3.3% strong growth. that is strong growth. inflation at near 3%. stock market at all-time high. how could the fed justify

cutting rates? i argue if they do try to make the world look better in an election year and that is kind of a sad statement. i would never have believed that the fed could be political but if you put all this data on a piece of paper and go how can you justify it, i don't think they can. charles: i never understood the idea that we had a booming economy and we were going to cut-rates at the same time. >> right. charles: just never made sense. by the way i still have you down for potentially 20% pullback in stocks. we have to hop from here, brian. see you later. >> great to be with you, charles. charles: our next guest says stocks are rallying because bonds are rallying and bonds are rallying because the fed cut qt. pretty simple. let's bring in manward press chief economist shah gilani. powell came to the rescue of the stock market. that is long tradition of the fed which i think goes back to greenspan, maybe further. at some point, got to brian

wesbury's point have we become so skewed we don't pay attention to fundamentals? we don't focus focus entrepeneurship. we don't do things that make us the greatest country in the world, focus on what jay powell had for breakfast and hike rates? >> you're right, charles. we don't focus on fundamentals. don't focus on technicals anymore maybe for some folks. we focus on narratives. is the fed going to cut? is the fed going to hike? what is inflation doing? at that those are narratives that move stocks quickly. earnings is based on fundamentals so that has some importance. if you see the story stocks go through the roof, meme stocks another example, there is word out there something could happen or there is big short interest. what is moving markets for the most part are narratives. a.i. narrative started last year. that moved markets. now we've got the fed, will it cut? no it is not going to cut. maybe one, maybe one, absolutely no more than two. i agree with brian it is

political if they did cut but what they did do at the wednesday meeting, the statement at the q&a, when what we found the federal reserve cut its qt. in other words instead of letting $60 billion to run off the balance sheet, they will reduce to let tag billion run off. if they have 60 billion going to mature, they will be in the bond market buying bills, notes, and bonds. that is very supportive. charles: so your bullish in part because of that. what is the kryptonite here? what is the one thing that could derail the rally? >> if bonds continue, if bonds turn tail from here and we see the 10-year heading towards, if it gets above 4.70, 4.75, then we've broken out of resistance and we're heading higher, possibly to 5% that will derail the market. we have a big 10-year coming up tomorrow. we have a 30 year coming up. i think the auctions should go well. if they don't, if upcoming auctions don't do well, bonds

will turn tail and i think the stock market will see something like brian is talking about, a 10, 20% correction. charles: we're rooting for japanese housewives to keep buying our treasurys. meantime, in the meantime, i know you've got some long ideas. let's go through them real quick. alphabet, google, you like that, you like nvidia, you like those both still here? >> yes. we bought some, you know, the little dips that they had, we bought some because again i'm very bullish in here. unless i see things turn i think we'll continue to higher. doesn't mean we will continue higher but right now the path of least resistance is higher and so we're going to buy some stocks when they dip. we bought a couple of others. we bought a few things. we'll continue to look for stuff that dips. charles: is an atlantis holding, lnth? >> what lnth, this is a great company, $5.3 billion market cap company. in diagnostic, therapeutics business, very profitable profit

margins, 34%, great earnings. so we like this. we bought a position in that a couple weeks ago for the long term. i think that will be a great hold for a goodling -- good long while. for. charles: is that mount olympus or greek titans in mythology? i used to play this name 10, 20 years ago. what is going on there? >> we bought it on a dip. earnings come out tomorrow morning. i don't know that the eps are going to beat but they typically do. this time i think they are a little negative. i'm expecting their revenue to be something like 30% higher year-over-year. i think the stock pops from there. we bought it a couple weeks ago. a good bit lower than where it is. i think it has pretty strong potential. small cap, 315 million market cap but i think it has got a lot of potential energy to go higher. charles: shah, always great talking to you. always appreciate it. >> thank you. charles: all right, folks, april labor data shows less strong

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charles: my next guest says ape's jobs report was exactly what the fed wanted to see. sort of like hitting three cherries on the slot machine folks, change, chink, chink markets certainly wanted to see it. maybe even more pressure after that fomc meeting where powell had his back against the wall a little bit there? >> i think what powell did last week, he took rate hikes off the board, right, which the markets loved. charles: right. >> all we've got you either stand pat, higher for longer or we cut rates, right? you took some asymmetrical risk

off the board. the bar is really high for them to do it now. charles: what is interesting to me, he is supposed to be data dependent. >> yes. charles: to do that, also if you put three rate cuts out there which they did and some maybe wonder if he ironically enough done more harm than good. putting rate cuts out there stock market goes up, wealth effect, well effect in connection with inflation. >> yeah. charles: maybe he didn't do sim heavily any favors with those three rate cuts on the dot plot. >> i think that's right. remember the fed has been wrong all along. spin the chock back to 2023 we were still hiking rates, there were three rate cuts priced into the fed fund futures back after of '23. that didn't happen. walk into this year, six rate cut, that didn't happen. we have one rate cut, pushed it out after november. out to november. charles: two days after the election. >> right. it is symbolic, it will not change the direction of the

grind of interest rates. charles: best rallies since november, today we show a little bit of moxie, but it feels like we're missing something. doesn't feel like we're off to the races right now. >> april first down month in five, right? it is interesting, if you look at the technicals, the 20-day on the s&p 500 pierced through the 50-day from above, right which is never usually a good sign. charles: right. >> it puts downward pressure sure. now the last couple days we recapped and recouped the 50-day. we're not sure it is going to hold. we think this is a little bit after double top forming that rolls back over, ends up below the 50-day, a lot of blue sky down below to the. charles: talking 4800. >> that's right. charles: maybe why your year-end target is 5200. looking for a little bit more evaluations expansion, pe exexpansion as well? >> a little bit but mostly p-e

multiples stay the same. 2.60 is $13 below where the street is at next year. we think there is limited growth there. just like we come in every year, they will have to mark earnings growth down. this double-digit, 11, 12% earnings growth in the bottoms-up, top down consensus isn't going to happen. it will be more like the 6, 7% we are seeing in q1. charles: i kind of alluded to that at the beginning of the show. i like it when they start to ratchet them down. >> yes. charles: this is intreeing because small is so undervalued compared to large historically and i think emerging markets to our markets are maybe the lowest they have ever been in 50 years. but you say essentially saying stick with what's working, right? >> yes. charles: but by the same token i'm kind of rushing, we only have a minute to go and i want to get all of your brilliance [laughter]. also energy, health care, materials, industrials. this sin trying because things that have driven our markets is not here. you're saying it is time to

rotate though. >> cyclicals. pro cyclicals will serve you well here. what people don't realize since the last election, best-performing sector by far and away is not technology, it is energy. it killed it since the last election. charles: these others seem likely yups, considering all the money coming into this economy. >> chips act, ira. charles: right. >> you can't go into an airport without massive construction happening anywhere. that is all benefiting industrials and materials. materials is a little bit after proxy play on china. china rallied hard the last few days. it is giving a boost to materials. materials are pretty cheap right here. charles: before i let you go, what is your concern? what is the most pressing concern? >> i think people are not paying attention to the yield curve right now. it has changed materially in the last several months. the short side of the yield curve, three month, two year is now inverted by 60 basis points. that is a huge cliff inversion. the long side is almost tabletop flat and maybe with a little bit of side slope. why does that matter?

it matters because the short side has more signal than noise in it. it tells you what is going to happen in the next coming months, suggests that the ride bets bumpy in the summer month. charles: a slowdown. >> a slowdown. charles: not necessarily recession? >> no recession unless something breaks. charles: great to see you. >> you too. charles: always ice as usual always on the fed but i think economists may be a little bit too sanguine about it all. i will borrow a line from ernest hemingway. i think they're making a mistake. we have the great nancy here about how policy changes can happen gradually and suddenly. see you soon. ♪. investment opportunities are everywhere you turn. but at t. rowe price, we're letting curiosity light the way.

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charles: you know, for all the twists and turns in the economy and the market since the fed has embarked on its historic rate hike mission, most wall street economists and strategists whether bullish or bearish always seem to be convinced the move is going to be orderly, right? no jerking around. and i'm always thinking about the line from the sun also rises, right? how do did yo-yo go -- you go bankrupt? gradually then suddenly. joining me now, portfolio manager nancy davis. nancy, you know, in your note, i was reading your note, and you kind of warn us about this complacency right now. what is it -- i don't know why, because history tells us we shouldn't be this complacent, and yet i think you're right. >> the data is bad, and it's kind of opposite day, right? with all the bad data, the ec by by and credit markets seem more if more euphoric, so you have to think, all this bad data, is it really something to get so excited about? if you just think back, everybody was worried with about

recession, now there's no talk of that anymore. charles: right. >> everything's awesome, right, charles? charles: as long as the fed -- i mean, you're right. we were rooting for bad news last week, and every time we got some -- and we got plenty, the services pmi contraction, first time in 16 months, manufacturing pmi falling through the roof, the jobs report -- >> higher inflation. charles: and higher inflation to go with it, and and yet it feels like, well, maybe if jay powell says, you know, i had daryl crock on, as long as the fed suggests they won't hike rates no matter what, the street's okay with it. >> but everything can turn on a dime. when we started 2024, the market had priced in six cut from the fed, and now we're under two, and that's just about a quarter. so so much can change. and i think you always have to be looking at where assets are priced, and equities for the most parent are pretty expensivy expensive. and especially the cyclical

equities like the energy stocks. the market is kelling you there's going to be more -- telling you there's going to be more inflation, and there's opportunities in the rates market as you and daryl were talking about right before the break, the yield curve's massively inverted. charles: right. so for you, when you see that, daryl takes it, okay, bumpy road, but he still doesn't see it as a recession. remember, initially the inverted yield curve was one of the best proxies for a future recession. hasn't happened yet. but where do you see9 it? what are you reading from it? >> well, the yield curve has been inverted more longer than ever in our lifetime. charles: right. >> it's been under zero, and what i mean is if you look at, say, the 2-year which is what you and daryl were talking about, it's higher than the 10-year. and so if you think about the time value of money, why would people lend janet yellen and the u.s. treasury money for longer and get paid less? charles: right. >> and so i think really trying to men from it a normalization in the yield curve because just

having -- even japan has an upward-sloping yield curve. theirs is about a +60, and ours is about -66 today which is really wild given everything going on on the fiscal side. cha charles what are you advising folks, opportunities in this environment? >> well, charles d. charles: talk your book a little bit. [laughter] >> if you don't mind, our i-ball etf, inflation volatility, that benefits from the normalization of the yield curve, so the yield curve going are from uninverted to normal which would be upward-sloping, it's currently extremely down this year because the yield curve has enaccelerated so much more this year -- inverted so much more this year -- charles: the inversion is that extreme like that, does it mean the snapback, so to speaker is also, happens quickly? it does. with silicon valley bank, it was

up 4.7 -- 14.7% that week because it has long option toes. charles: right. >> so they can absolutely lose money, all investing involves risk, but with an option you can have that asymmetric, positive whereupon side. charles: great stuff, nancy. >> great to see you. charles: all right, folks, before i hand it over to liz, i want to talk about the pursuit of happiness because every time i see an article or a survey about the pursuit of happiness, it's a negative if article, right? in fact, here's a headline from last summer that says the pursuit actually leads to misery. then there was last february, another article noted that career success does not equal happiness, which is intriguing because this morning i was reading where people who switched jobs in the last year are far less satisfied than those who actually did not change they are job. i mentioned gallup earlier where a poll shows not having enough money for retirement is right now our greatest financial worry. now, part of that is sort of this fading dream of owning a home. the new york fed survey say --

survey we've showed many times shows renters believe their ability to buy a home has a dropped to an all-time low. this goes back to 2015. so there are things that can be done to turn the all of this stuff around. you can fight back. you have got to make sacrifices, you can make your life better even when the odds are stacked against you or seem to be stacked against you. i'll be honest, they are stacked against you right now. the fact of the matter is the circumstances we're in with these ultra-high rates, with unlimited government spending means that the have notses really are in a tough pick, and to ask people to sacrifice may sound unfair or unreasonable are. but for me, it is really the only way you can survive this if you want to enhance your life. it's a tough period of time, but what? tough times make tough people, right, liz? liz: and this country -- charles: yes, absolutely. liz: -- allows us to squeeze the juice out of this lemon we call life the most, right in.