we look. sea. jackie: hey! no, we're not. taylor: kelly, thanks so much. really appreciate it. a quick check on your money to round out this week. the dow's up now, as you can see, for a second straight day. but for the week, s&p and the nasdaq, you guys, they are down sharply. of you have the nasdaq can off about 1.4% today, almost 5% for the week. tesla's been a big dragger. we've talked about netflix today that didn't do great in the market, and we're really pushing forward to next week. so we'll have to see. we'll say tuned. jackie: a big thank you to sean, we always love to have you. and also tune in to "the the bottom line" with him and dagen mcdowell, 6 p.m. weeknights eastern time right here on fox business. we love having you -- sean you do not want to have you. yous -- you guys, thank you. jackie: we're going to toss it to charles payne. charles: good afternoon, everyone. i'm charles payne, this is "making money." the air's starting to come out

of tech stocks, and all of a sudden people are asking, is this a repeat of march 2000? art hogan, he lived through that, and he's here with us today. plus, how can you use options to protect your portfolio? jon najarian, options expert exthe record the their, on what you should be doing. and the biden white house, well, thinking about declaring a climate energy. they say to crack down on the oil industry, but my many think maybe to grab young voters. i'll ask larry kudlow his thoughts at 2:30. and are you ready for the halving? miss teen crypto has been telling us to buy this stuff for a few years, what this next major move means for bet coyne. and what's next in the middle east? if we'll give you the inside scoop. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪ ♪ ♪ charles: you know, the market was already on edge as that fear index i show you from time to time, it swung really quickly from greed, look at this, just a

moment month ago it was the at 69, now it's at 31. it's moving quickly. this latest move coming as news broke that israel has struck the sites in iran in retaliation for last week's assault. here's the thing, the knee-jerk reaction was or harsh, of course, the typical moves you would expect. oil spiked higher, equity futures stumbled and most of the global currencies lost more ground against the dollar. now, the action, a reflection, right, that's expressed by global fund managers. if you take a look at this, they cite geopolitics as the second biggest risk out there, the only thing higher is inflation. but something interesting happened right before the open. the market came back. but, listen, let's mistake no mistake, the near-term bias right now has shifted to the downside for all the major equity indices. if this selling persists, we could see that middle-term bias shift to the downturn as well. beyond the drama in the middle east, questions continue to linger about inflation, folks,

and are there's where the street was looking coming into in this last week for earnings to pick up the slack, to come to the rescue. as you can see, revenue growth has been elusive, however. 79% of companies did beat on earnings, but the guidance has been so-so. take a look at this. when you beat, your stock the doesn't move. when you miss on earnings, oh, my goodness, there is hell to pay. the average decline, about 12%. so here we are. the market limps into the weekend hoping that the tech earnings next week can right the ship. joining me right now, b. rivalry wealth management chief strategist art a hogan. and p art, speaking of tech stocks and the market under pressure, i saw i that the march 2000 clip of the tech bubble crash where the announcer laid it on pretty thick with a british accent. i'm going to share some with the audience. it's described as nothing short of breathtaking. breathtaking drop never before seen in if u.s. markets. the closing bell might as well have been an alarm. so savage, was the selling.

and there you were in the clip -- [laughter] telling investors, you know, more or less that, or well, the bottom had fallen out. is so i've got to ask you, how does back then compare to where we are right now? >> yeah. you know, a lot of people try to draw that sort of parallel, to things during the dot.com era. not even close, you know? when you think about what was going on then, there was the all sorts of spending, started in '95 on internet company ifs. we had about 853 companies come public just by putting dot.com at the end of their name, really no business model. if you want to draw the real parallel and just look at cisco, cisco is virtually the nvidia of today. cisco was, providing all the picks and shovels for the folks that wanted to deploy internet. so cisco's multiple got north of 80 times on a trailing basis before it dropped 90%. and clearly, you know, that was not unusual for company at the time. the s&p 500 multiple got north of 45 times. so flash forward to today and

every time nvidia reports their earning, their multiple comes down. it's not that demanding for a company that's growing that a fast. multiple if on the s&p got as high as 21, back down in the sort of sub-20 level. so i think the time is different, but we always fear when we get the kind of correction we've gone through the over the course the last two weeks, it could be the start of something larger. i imagine that's not the case. i think when endings kick off next week, we'll likely calm down especially since two weeks ago we lost -- or gained 30 basis points on the yield of the 10-year, and it kind of flatlined this week. i think that's a real good sign. oil went from $87 to -- 80 to $87.7 0,ing and that's pulled back a little bit. likely things have calmed down, and earn earnings likely will help that process. carl a charles in my book, "unbreakable investor," i have a whole chapter comparing nvidia to cisco, to your point. i knew, inevitably, that was

going to be a big question everyone had for nvidia. and i agree with you a thousand percent. still though, the anxiety is there. let's talk about all the other risks out there. what do you feel right now is the number one issue then? what is, what might be the sword of damocles hanging over this market? >> i think it's energy prices, and that'll be driven by disruption in supply. if israel and iran actually get into a real conflict and take out some supply from iran and and we have a quick spike up to $100 meaning it's coming from the supply side, not the demand side, that would actually freeze if everything up. that's bad for everybody, and it would clearly gum up the gears of any progress that we've made on inflation. so if we went from, or you know, call it $8ing 5 today to $100, that would erase all the work that the fed has done on cpi over the course of the last six months if in a heart a beat. especially if it's stuck there for a while. so i think highways ooh one of the biggest issues. the other issue would be if we continue to have hotter hand

expected like the first core inflation readouts on both cpi and ppi and that continues, we could inch up and break above 5% yield on the 10-year, that's really a pivot point. that's where we peaked last october. we take the out 5% and spend some time north of that, that's going to be a risk-off signal for investors. certainly, the price for oil is a harder e one to predict. charles: yeah. well, above 5%, katie bar the door. less than a minute to go, i was reading your first quarter outlook, the title, the sun also rises. you noted that market participants have spent the better part of last year waiting for recession which, of course, refused to materialize. and i find it interesting because right now everyone is gung ho about how strong the economy is. if haul of that's true, why -- all of that's true, why did we ever get in this position where the fed was so earring to cut rates and wall street thought they were going to cut rates? >> what happened was we went through a period of time when we didn't know when the fed was going to stop. when they finally did that dovish pivot in december, the pendulum swung too far.

we thought we were going to see the fed cut as early as march and maybe six times. the good news is we've rationalized that down to maybe two times this year, and yet the market's held in nicely. that's less of a driver. investors have been willing to forgo multiple rate cuts for a stronger economy and better earning, and that makes a whole lot more sense. just means the ped's going to take longer to get to the 2% target, but i think it's a better place to be than having the fed having to come to the rescue because the economy's slowing down significantly. charles: yeah, i'm with you on that 100%. if we can get organic growth reflected in the stock market without the fed pumping in any more money, i'm with you 100%. art, well, you lived through a lot. you look great, or just as a good as you did 24 years ago, by man -- >> i wore the same shirt just for you, charles. [laughter] charles: i love it. see you soon. >> take care. charles: all right, folks, my guest notes that stocks are moving again to the beat of treasury yields. we kind of just talked about

that, right? which is not good news, i want to bring in evans may if wealth managing partner elizabeth we've especially advance. elizabeth, in your -- evans. you said the market misread inflation. art and i just talked about that, but didn't the fed misread innation and the market follow the fed? -- inflation9 and the market followed the fed? >> it's a great question. certainly, at the beginning of the year we were pricing in seven rate cuts and then the start of this week we were at two and now with powell's commentary on tuesday, we're picing in one rate cut. -- pricing in one rate cut. charles, we've talked about it before, the fed doesn't know exactly what the fed's going to do, and it continues to be data-dependent. i think your comment on the market moving based on the 10-year treasury, what we saw happen last wednesday and then again on monday was really the rapid rise in the 10-year. that really caused the market to sell off. and if you look at the vix, similar to the fear gauge you

showed earlier, overnight the vix was at 21, market open we're at 19. we've been flirting with that 20 level, and the last time we saw the vix at 20 the was in october of 2023. s&p contracted 10%. so we're 5% off the march month if end high, and i suspect that we're feel in the midst of a pullback, but i do believe that the market moves higher. charles: so, but near term though the risk is to the downside, the market bias has shifted to the downside. we've had four sessions in a row coming into today where we opened higher, and whoever got sucked in there got suckered, because we ended much lower. >> right. charles: you know, listen, the s&p looks pretty wobbly right here. how long does that continue though? where do you think we see some sort of inflation point and we could -- the rally starts to resume? >> yeah. i think that the next technical level to look at is 4900. so, you know, yes, we've add had

a pullback here -- had a pullback here, and we've had consecutive days that have been negative, but let's not forget how much the market has moved up since october. if you look at the first quarter, when you look at the s&p delivering 10% plus historically, that actually bodes well for the rest of the year. if you look at q2-q4, historically the market is positive 91% of the time. however, a 5 pullback typically happens a few times a year, 10% pullback that happens every 1.4 years. we've not had it, so i think we're due for the correction. but, you know, my hope is that the market shifts from trading on treasury yields and goes back into trading on earnings. charles: right. >> only 10% of the companies in the s&p have reported, so next week is critical for earnings. charles: yeah. in fact, i got 30 seconds to go, about 25% of the s&p reporting next week. some of of the big heavyweights, is that do or die next week? >> we've seen more consolidation

and concentration in the market, so those especially the top ten largest companies have to deliver in order for the market to move higher. charles: all right. elizabeth, thank you very much. appreciate it. >> thank you, charles. charles: see you soon. lots of investors, folks, have been turning to options. we've shown these screens like crazy. the problem though is many don't really noaa they're doing. john -- know what they're doing. jon najarian does, he's one of the best. we're going to talk about how to use options to peck yourself in these volatile markets, next. ♪ slipping out of balance into freefall. i'm glad i found stability amidst it all. gold. standing the test of time. my name's dan and i live here in san antonio, texas. i ran my own hvac business and now i'm retired. i'm not good being retired. i'm a pain in the neck. i like to be able to have a purpose. about three or four years ago, i wasn't feeling as if i was as sharp as i used to be.

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organizado por la dea, administración para el control de drogas. encuentre un sitio de recolección en deatakeback.com. charles: more and more investors are turning to options which can be like handing the keys over to your 16-year-old son. [laughter] listen, great tools, but it's critical that you know how to use them correctly which also includes how you can glean narratives from them that really aren't being told when you watch the stock market let me bring in market rebellion cofounder jonna if jaron. i just saw you last weekend in miami, know you're out in l.a.. what the heck you doing out there now? >> bell -- well, i'm out here for the long beach grand prix, charles. we've got stingray bob who races for a.j. foyt, and we are supporting him, and we're betting that he's going to bring home some trophies in this year. he's certainly just a great

young driver, so that's why i'm out here, charles. but i'm delighted to talk with you about options. charles: all right. i missed my invite. you know, we do have a vegas studio -- i mean, an l.a. a stayed studio. maybe next time. let's talk about some things real quick because you spotted some major put activity earlier in the month. this is how you and your brother do it, you see the options market sort of moving and anticipating things hard going to happen in the stock market, right? >> exactly. as you know, charles, because you do a great job explaining to people about how that works, you get a time frame which is the expiration. that's embedded in every option. you get a strike price. look at that as the target. what is somebody looking for, for that particular asset to move to, up or down, you know? if calls bullish, puts bearish. so in rough terms, we've been seeing more and more activity in the puts virtually from the end

e of the first quarter, charles, in both the irk wm, the russell 2000 -- iwm. everybody thought small caps were going to come back this year and yet here we are just a couple weeks into the second quarter, and the russell is down over 3%. and there are pretty big bets that it goes a lot further hand that to the downside without any rate cuts, or charles. charles: you know what's interesting on that, a lot of that was was just a hunch. almost every january on this show there are two areas people always say you've got to buy, emerging market z but a -- because they've underperformed and the small caps because they've underperformed. >> yes. charles charles to your point, when you see that and even though it's been hammered, decimated, the bet is still to maybe buy puts rather than calls on the iwm. >> yeah. that, what you're showing on the screen there, that's what our subscribers look at. if you see how far that that has fallen just in the last few weeks, you know, of the first part of this, the second

quarter, they are betting -- and here's the other thing, charles, as you and i discussed. they're betting that this continues. these aren't options that expire today, in april. charles: right. >> these are options in may. so they're betting that the russell goes perhaps if all the way back down to test maybe 1800 or 1850, right now at 1941. and the same sort of bets are being placed in may for the spider, the spy, s&p 500. only thing is these bets are even bigger because, obviously, there's a lot more folks that are involved in the spyand, my gosh, the bets have been right and right and right. and it's also, charles, just real quick at the end of the day they keep hoping that maybe the spy reverses itself. but instead at about noon they start buying these puts, and then the thing falls out of bed. look at every day this week virtually. charles: every day, yeah.

>> we have fallen from noon into the close, erasing the gains that we had which is why we've been down five days in a row. charles: i have about 30 seconds, but i did want to ask you covered calls, so people have bought the market, they're holding stocks hard doing extraordinarily well. and you can see bumps in the road. and you realize, okay, i'm in a high-beta name, it's going to come down. is there one particular rule, just something they should always consider when they're writing calls against covered calls? >> again, time frame, how far do they -- how long does this selloff continue if they're in, for instance, tech stocks or if they're in energy stocks, it's the opposite. they're betting that it goes higher. i would say for tech stocks i want to be selling at the moneys within the final 30 days of that option. i think i'll make the most money and get the most protection without having to pay for it. instead, i'm just renting out the house for this big old house that i've got, you know, a thousand share of microsoft on your screen is $400,000.

so i would be selling those at the money 400 calls, charles. charles: all right. each call covers 100 shares. >> yes, sir. charles: jon, thank you so much, my friend. and good luck to your pen. >> stingray bob, let's go. [laughter] charles: all right, folks, president biden said to be the eyeing a declaration of a climate emergency. i mean, i'm sure you feel it out there, right? obviously, many think this is a ploy to sway young vote earth, but it's a heck of a gambit. can't wait to talk to larry kudlow about it right after the break. ♪le ♪ ss and more about discovering magic. rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. and also send them away. rich is living life your way. and having someone who can help you get there. the key to being rich is knowing what counts.

charles: to say that my next guest has a bone to pick with the fed might be an understatement. in this breakfast with gave report he who -- wrote, the fed is extremely adept at reporting the data but seemingly not equipped the analyze what is happening. [laughter] joining me now, david rosenberg. you know, in the news business, headlines are written by ap an entirely different department than the news division, so maybe the people cobbling together these reports should be the ones making policy. >> well, you know, just to maybe explain what i'm talking about, you know, about this, the inflation over the past couple of months which has really only been in the cpi number which is a totally flawed statistic but, charles, where's the inflation been? it's been in three items. it's been in the arcane and

lagged way that bls treats the rental components which dominate the index, auto premiums, auto insurance premiums and health care. and those last two items are almost mandated costs. they're almost like a tax on the consumer. that's not inflation that has anything to do with what the economy is doing. so when you strip those three things out which are id e yo sin accuratic and we'll see the extent to which they'll the be sustained the, headline inflation is running at 1.5%. it's not running 3 plus. and core's running close to 1. so i keep on hearing how broadly based the inflation is. it's in three components. and all the fed doing is just reporting what's happening at the headline level and and not really dissecting the data which is really telling you a different story. by the way, the same story that

its own beige book was telling us just the other day which is that the corporate sector is losing pricing power. how do you build an inflationaritive out of that -- inflation narrative out of that? charles: right. the beige book on a national level are, some said consumer spending barely increased overall and also added that several of these regions reported weakness in discretionary spending. again, to your point, that sort of contradicts what the fed's position is and this overaround. -- overarching narrative of how strong the consumer is, right? >> look, we had .7 on retail sale from the bls. and as i had posited when the april read came out, keep in mind there was a strange calendar quirk because easter line ared up in martha year. -- lined up in march this year. so it pulled forward a lot of spending. now, the point i'm making is this: back in late december

philadelphia fed bank president patrick harker said in a speech that the fed is starting to focus for on anecdotal evidence getting away from the government data and what business contacts are telling them and you're 100% right. in the beige booker widespread weakness in consumer spending and where there was strength, it was in staples, not discretionary. and evidence of the consumer trading down and heading to discount stores was ubiquitous. so the tone of the beige book, you're quite right, did not comport with that retail sales number that had everybody doing, you know erik the "kumbaya" -- everybody doing the "kumbaya." on the inflation practically every region of the country reported that the business sector was seeing their pricing power diminish can and their

ability to pass on cost yard lineses to the consumer -- cost increases to the consumer was dwindling rather discernibly. charles: yeah. >> and so we read the beige book. charles: yeah, and, by the way -- >> that's what the business contacts were telling the fed. and you look at the government data, they're in two different orbits. charles: and, by the way -- >> and the important thing is that if the fed is going to -- they've been doing beige book, it comes every six weeks, as you said. they've been doing it for over 50 years, okay in why bother publishing the beige book? if you're not going to listen to it? charles: yeah. no, i've been saying that for a long time. by the way, your point you're making now was echoed with the earnings results from procter & gamble, you know? they edged up their prices, but they still can't keep up with their own costs. we've got to leave it there, david. thank you very much, my friend. appreciate it. >> have a great weekend. charles: you too. let's bring in the great kudlow, larry kudlow, host of "kudlow." larry, let's ping on this

discussion of inflation because you say there's no monetary inflation, but there is fiscal and regulatory inflation. >> yeah. i mean, i wouldn't necessarily say no monetary inflation -- charles: right. >> but money supply numbers are very calm. they were very rapid a couple of years ago. that's all come out -- charles: well, they went up big and now they've come down big. >> yeah. and the fed's balance sheet is probably a little too loose for my taste. that's high-powered money. but i think, you know, the the sources of inflation are government spending. we're having an an orgy of government spending. and the imf just railed about it. we just saw a report from penn-wharton, and they're not supply siders, but they're making the same argument. you're seeing a lopsided economy. all this government spending is increasing consumer demand. business is soft. in fact, manufacturing has been flat for a couple of years and machinery and equipment has been basically flat for almost two years. charles: right. >> it's government to consumer.

and because we're not creating supply-side growth in the economy, you've got excess demand. through that -- i don't think inflation is slain because of that. and i do think the inflation numbers this winter, 4.5% annual rate in the first quarter, is something to give the fed pause, and i think the fed is right. the other thing is regulatory inflation. look, all this, you can start with the crazy climate change and all the regulations to stop fossil fuel. they're trying to pump in subsidies and tax credits for climate, for wind turbines, for solar, for electric vehicles. this raises prices. somebody pointed out the other day insurance costs have skyrocketed. charles: right. >> their insurance costs started with, guess what? charles: evs. >> electric vehicles. you're exactly right -- charles: have you ever seen one of those catch fire? >> i'm saying -- yes. anecdotally, that tells a lot. charles: a couple years ago i don't know if you remember, but one of these ships that had 4,000 cars on it, never sank

before, it went doubling -- down like a rock because it was loaded up with iv iss. -- evs. the traditional tough to put out a fire didn't work, and the whole ship went down. >> and the government is saying you can't have a ceiling fan, you have to have a ceiling fan that's climate, you can't have a toilet bowl that flushes or a showerhead that allows you to take a decent shower in the morning. you're a shower guy, i'm a shower guy, okay? all those things cost money. and that's why i say they're regulatory inflation. charles: right. >> it's like, you know, newt gingrich calls it big government socialism. steve forbes points out the kind of socialism today isn't like joe stalin. you don't have to actually buy the steel milker charles, but you can do it -- milker charles, but you can do it through the regulatory bureaucracy that tells you don't buy this, buy that. 9 and the buy that is more expensive that you'd like to buy left to your own devices. that a causes inflation. charles: and the thing that you have to replace that you love,

that worked and is better than the thing you're being forced to buy with. >> yes. charles: they have mast perked the art of using regulations to -- >> trump's going to roll the whole thing back. i promise you. trump's going to -- charles: fingers crossed. white houses in talks to invoke climate emergency. the subplot is this is a way to get young voters just like the college loan thing. it's interesting, because the bulk of college loans are owned by 35 to 49-year-olds. and on this, you and i were talking -- >> good point. charles: -- there's not a lot of young people out there clamoring for a climate emergency. >> really good, byron york wrote this up today, new harvard poll, okay, harvard-harris poll -- charles: right. >> young people, 18-29, i believe, which is more important, inflation or climate? 60-40, inflation. which is more important, jobs or climate? 60-40, jobs.

this is another major political mistake by the bidens x and heir going to take out all the land up in anwr in the alaskans, and they're going to also, by the way, this stuff is going to stop, any rare earth development and construction. charles: right. >> this is a major mistake, and it will help to keep energy prices much higher than would be the case. look, charles, you're running $80-90 energy prices, right? brent crude, european crude below 90, west texas is, i think, in the mid 80s. gasoline is up to about $3.65. those numbers are 30 higher than they need to be if we -- 30% higher than they need to be if we had a truly open, market-oriented climate policy by which i mean all of the above; fossils, coal, nuclear. of i'm not against wind and solar, but i am against it jamming down my throat every time. charles: right. >> and this is a major political call mistake the bidens are making. they're going to keep energy kohs higher.

if energy if costs are higher, charles, it permeates all prices throughout the economy. poll yum derivatives. i mean, you know what? you and i both wear eye glasses? this is a petroleum derivative, and it's more expensive than it needs to be because they're choking off fossil fuels. charles: you know, larry, i just wish everyone would look at what's happened to germany, the self-inflicted wounds that they've done to themselves. >> there you go. charles: why are we on the same path? because the path goes straight down from industrial might and glory to poverty it's amazing. all right, larry, i appreciate you. >> great to see you. charles: always great to have you. >> thank you, charles. charles: catch larry on "kudlow," weekdays 4 p.m. eastern. everyone watches him. he's the number one show on business news. all right, folks, so how much more on the upside when it comes to buying, because we're at a key inflection point? we're lucky enough to have cameron dawson in studio to break it down for us next. ♪ ♪

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and we could all un-experience this whole session. okay, that's uncalled for. charles: all right, folks, this market really starting to turn down bigtime. now owe -- know where the s&p 500 was when we began. i want to bring in cameron dawson. cameron, you know, i had david kelly on yesterday. he's a legendary guy, but he's also one of these guys i think he's been around so long, or

he's relatively calm about everything. [laughter] nothing's a big deal. i was saying my concern is the sort of snowball of selling could quickly become a boulder particularly with these higher beta names, and we're starting to see that. two things. first, the broad market, the s&p 500, breaking that 50-day moving average. i always worry when the 50-day is violated if we're going to go to the 200-day. are you concerned? >> i think it's very possible. we are seeing that markets are getting oversold in the short term. we can look at the numbers of name names trading above their 50-day moving average has fallen so much that typically you see a little bit of a bounce, but that 50-day is now becoming important because that could be resistance that could lead to a test of the 100-day or the 200-day. even if we get down to the 200-day, that is normal in the course of a year, a normal kind of correction, which is -- charles: so you're saying suck it up, buttercup. [laughter] >> it feels so jarring because we've had such low volatility. charles: you get used to f this

stuff, right? it's hard not to be lured into. we went i don't know how many days without a 2% correction, almost 130 days or something like that. after after awhile, but when it happens, it seems to happen so quickly, and for audience, that's the jarring stair step up and elevator down. >> and you saw a big, hugal allocation and rush into stocks as they seemed to never go down. you had all of the strategists racing to up their fore california for the s&p 500 which is something -- forecast for the s. which is something we typically push back on. you saw sentiment get's tentedded by -- extended by the time you got to the end of march, so you were set up for some type of digestion. charles: a lot of these names, you know, netflix had a really -- they blew it away top and bottom, not forecasting or sharing subscriber data, i think they're setting up for a buying opportunity. but how much downside, where do you start to get worried? if 10% is minimal, somewhat overdue, is there a part where

you start to reconsider things? >> we start to judge the potential for downside by the power of the bounces coming how of these short-term oversold conditions meaning that if we start to see signs of people rotating into really defensive sectors d. charles: right. >> -- watch your utilities and staples, that could be a sign this is the more than just a digestion of positioning and actually a growth scare. if it's a growth scare, that's when there's a lot more downside. that's what looks like 2032. if it's not a growth scare, it looks like the third quarter of '23 which is par for the course and normal digestion. charles: creating a buying opportunity. when thest dust settles, i'm not sure, but i think they'll be the top performer for the week or energy would be up there as well. financials look intriguing today. i'm not sure where they are right now, but earlier today i was shocked because they're being led by regional a banks. regional banks are the ones that have the dark clod of commercial real estate. cloud of commercial real estate. so i think three regional bank

names among the top ten advancers today, is that a good sign for you? >> it's a good sign for the underlying economy that you not seeing more signs of stress in regional banks. and given the fact that yields have background up so much, you might have suspected -- expected some pressures within their balance sheets. we have to watch going toward because there's been a lot of easing in some of the lending conditions because of the expectation that the fed would cut. if the fed doesn't cut, then i think that that could set up for a little bit of disappointment in some of the banking activity. we have to watch it really closely, but for for now it's a great sign that a we're not falling off the cliff are. charles: also the regional as have to pay out, right? if these large banks still don't give people squat with. >> i know. charles: it doesn't matter. why give them anything? these other, new york community bank's got, like, i think they're doing a 5.5% cd or money market or whatever. you know? and these are the most stressed banks have to offer the most money to keep clients from fleeing. >> and that's why higher for

longer in that world would typically hurt the regional banks more. charles: right. >> we'll pend some time digging into the details of this -- spend some time digging into the details to get a sign of where we could be going if rates do stay high. charles: let's talk about the 10 -year yield. down today mostly, i think, as a flight to safety because of last night. i still think the add advice is to the upside, and i'm concerned. i think 4.7, i start to get really worried that it's going to automatically go to 5 at some point. what about you? >> yeah. i think that as we pass through the 4.40 level, that a really opened the door to 4.75, 5%. now, we do know that there are real money buyers once you get into that 5% territory, and that's even when if you look at the loss that the you could have if you're buying a 5% 10-year treasury bond, you have a lot of offset because the yield just so high. that's when we're starting to talk to clients to say, hey, if you're with underaloe9 -- underallocated to long duration, you may not catch the low, you

may have some losses, but it could be interesting to start extending due race. -- duration. charles: great stuff, we covered a lot. folks, are you getting excited? because i am. i'm pumped like craze i. i'm talking about unbreakable investor, our town hall next week, wednesday, april 24th. 2 p.m. eastern. and you know what? you can till join. come to the studio live. last two were standing room only. it's going to be a lot of questions, there's going to be some things you've never seen on financial tv. go to eventbrite.com and search charles payne, or you get your free ticket. do it now, i'll see you next wednesday. after israel's retaliatory strike against iran, searches for world war iii have spiked. we have a geopolitical expert, one of the best with. can't wait to hear what she's got to say next. into freefall. i'm glad i found stability amidst it all.

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charles: right now all quiet on the middle ian front, but there are big concerns, obviously, whether or not this is the calm before the next salvo of missiles or will iran maybe look to just try to spin what's happened so far rather than trigger further military action. i want to bring in lisa a daftari. lisa, thanks for joining me. you know, just a real -- can everyone's on edge, right in we knew this was coming, everyone knew this was coming, and so now everyone wonders what happens next. >> right. so, obviously, anything can happen, and that's what's very precarious and scary about the situation. who are we dealing with, a rogue regime that can't be trusted. it's either at the 1-yard lean or even past that in terms of having a nuclear weapon. but right now what we're watching is both the united states -- i should say all three, the united states, iranian regime and israel have distanced themselves from the narrative of this strike last night. no one is offering comments, no one is confirming, no one is denying. actually, the only ones who are

denying is iran's regime who wants to say nothing happened, nothing to see here. and that is by design. of course, israel does not want to escalate things, they want to make sure that the message if was served. this was the message of deterrence, to tell the iran regime that, look, we can reach you, we know how to do this. we have the resolve to do it. so basically, watch out. in terms of iran's regime, they don't have an appetite for war, and we have been saying that even before they sent 300 missiles and drones into israel over the weekend last week. so right now many, you know, of course anything can happen, and i know that is a very scary situation given the middle east and given everything or that's going on right now. but there's a reason why everyone is distancing themselves from this, to prevent escalation right now. charles: lisa, in your note you have the title too little, too late. the u.s. and u.k. issue new sanctions on iran in response to tehran's weekend attack on israel. a lot of people are wondering why the united states hasn't taken a tougher approach when it comes to iran. >> yeah. and, you know, or that is a huge question many of us have now,

and we had it under the obama administration as a well. why offer so many concessions to a regime that because not repay my of our kindness, right? -- any of our kindness? billions of dollars of waivers and and installments given to this regime, we removed vital sanctions under the biden administration allowing hem to earn $90 billion in oil sale selling to china, wednesday vai. why are they always off the hook? a bigger question is looking forward, will the biden white house change its policy on the iran regime seeing the consequences of not showing them deterrence, not showing them that the united states will lead the way in and that is exactly why israel had to retaliate in order to basically reset this calibration with iran's regime and show deterrence. charles: do you think iran and some of these other bad actors are taking, are being encouraged to a degree by president biden's waffling on support for israel

recently? >> absolutely. i think it's it's very dangerous to ever, ever -- regardless of who's in the white house, they should be very consistent with foreign policy. foreign policy is a nonpartisan issue. it should be stable, predictable, and our friends need to know where they stand, our enemies need to know where they stand. and when we have distance between ourselves and israel, again, regardless of who's in the white housing democrat or republican, there's a big issue there. for those who say by concern we give aid to israel, that's a misnomer. we have a strategic relationship with israel. the united states gets as much out of it as israel does. therefore, we need them, we need stability in the region, and we need israel to knock out these terror risks that are surrounding the nation. basically, they're fighting everyone else's fight. charles: you're absolutely right. lisa, great seeing you. thank you very much. >> thank you for having me. charles: so with the state of the u.s. economy and rising tensions around the world, particularly in the middle east, wonder how that's impacting younger generations? joining me now, miss teen

crypto, randi hipper. gen z doom scrolling, doom spending and, you know, it's sort of -- i know there are concerns about inflation and all these other things, but your with generation, what's going on? these sort of events, it doesn't help, right? >> absolutely not. i think a lot of kids are suffering from anxiety as it is, and then you go and you have the economy where they're going outside and they can't even live. then you have the reason of inflation, all these wars going on where now the american dream, like i mentioned last time with you, is dying, and tease kids, they're just kind of doom cansday spending. why not have fun now? i may not be able to do that later on in life. charles: so we got the bitcoin halving coming out. i think is it tonight at 10 p.m.? is that the official number? >> it might be around 10 p.m. charles: it might be. it feels like, in the market there's an old saying buy e the rumor, sell the news i. fell -- feels like bitcoin may have

gotten ahead of itself. what should we expect over the next year or two years after this? >> i think you should look back at the past halvings. first halving bitcoin coyne was around $12, next time 65, and this is around every four year, last time it was around $8,500. so instead of worrying about the short term, when in doubt, zoom out on the charts. you can see that bitcoin's price appreciation is nothing to worry about. charles: i think it was the number one asset 11 of the last 13 years. i've got a video of you. you're doing more than just talking about it, you're actually teaching classes now. let's show the audience a little bit of what you're doing here. this is so impressive. i mean, you've always been an advocate of education. where was this? >> this was my third year in a row going to a high school. i've gone to tons of colleges, columbia university with, middle schools, high schools and adults, just to spread adoption and inform people about a new technology because this is a digital revolution we're a part

of, charles. charles: and they're embracing it, right in. >> absolutely. we've been using digital currency since we were younger. buying itunes gift cards, buying virtual currencies, buying virtual items within games. this is nothing new to us. now we own it. we're empowered by it. we're able to be our own bank, or transact 24/7/365 with no censorship and cross-border. what's better than that? charles: i don't know with. i think if i'd bought bitcoin when you first toll me, i'd be up 200%. next time you have a class, don't be surprised to see me in the back. >> always happy to have you. charles: all right, thank you. folks, i want to hand it over to liz claman, and as i do this, i have to say congratulations on your induction to the cable hall of fame -- liz: thank you. charles: such a huge honor. congratulations. liz: thank you so much. couldn't do it without "the claman countdown" team and all a of fox business. it's great for the network and to get