and the economy is not slowing it down the way you wanted it to by raising rates. i think the market. i'm with larry kudlow on this. brian: we talk about spending. we talk about commodity prices. i don't think economically you can make a case for a cut in june but if they do it, if they do it, boy the political angle will come out. jackie: right. brian: people will say the fed is doing this to help the present regime. jackie: right. brian: if i'm the fed i don't want to be in that spot after proking it badly on transitory. jackie: i was going to say. he doesn't get a opportunity to get it wrong here. powell has to think about his legacy as well. how he will go down in history. this will have a long-term impact in many ways. i will send it to a man that makes a impact every day. charles payne. charles: i can't wait. thank you all, very, very much the plot is thickening, can't you feel it. good afternoon, i'm charles payne this is "making money." breaking now, as you heard stocks really lower.

anxiety gripping investors ahead of tomorrow's cpi report. the dilemma building for the bulls, folks. keep running with these mag-7 stocks which seem to be falter or start to branch out. knowing when to hold them and when to fold them. nancy tengler talks about when to ring the register. we have daniel on his work on behavioral investing. also how does lower taxes generate revenue for the government? reagan economist art laffer is here to remind the doubters that it does. forget about cpi. my takeaway on real life sacrifices made by individuals every single day. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪. ♪ don't let the sun go down on me ♪ charles: i wish i knew the rest of the lyrics. i know the first part though. don't let the sun go down on me. no doubt that total eclipse

yesterday cast a shadow over the entire trading session. look at this, folks, the volume, that was the lowest trading volume since black friday of last year. remember black friday half a trading day. they were trying to work off the effects of tryptophan. everybody was outside with the special glasses on looking at the sun. here is what you missed in the cover of darkness. the cme fed watch slipped to only two fed cuts. look at this. one cut here, one cut here, for the rest of the year, just two rate cuts. the number is bouncing around a little bit today. obviously any bullish case or theses on three as more have to be rethink. wall street is all in right now t remains elevated. it was higher here which is outrageous, but it is still very, very elevated. this is the problem, it creates a dilemma for the bulls. you have all of this optimism but how do you, how do you go about this market? now remember we've already talked about the first quarter

of this year. the yellow line is the mag-7. they are going to crush it on, we know they're going to crush it but as we branch out into the rest of the year the 493 are going to eclipse the mag-7. think about this. markets are forward-looking. do you invest here knowing at some point the earnings story will be with the 493 other stocks? they're going to have their day in the sun. do you invest in them right now? that is a big question for the market and for investors. here is another thing, listen this is relative strength, right, overall relative strength. what is really intrigue about it, all these sectors are starting to trend higher. communication services energy, industrials, materials, financials and look at this, tech is trending lower. so the question might seem to be farfetched could the sun be going down on the mag-7 and megacap trades now? we have nancy tengler.

nancy, you sent over your entire portfolio today, you mentioned you will make some changes, max two stocks. the you mentioned not all the ideas in your portfolio are winners. i got to think you're making some changes. would you be closing laggards, losers or ringing the register? >> thanks for having me, charles, so both. i think you know, being a disciplined seller is super important especially in a market like this. and so you want to take advantage when the stocks outperform by capturing some of those gains and you also want to remove yourself from the names that are just not delivering from a fundamental standpoint or have management changes that are not positive for the stock. we did a little bit of both this quarter. we took gains in a number of technology in our best 12 ideas portfolio. we exited psa, public storage reit. that is one of the ways i think

you can continue to generate outperformance by looking forward instead of looking backward. charles: so the irony here is the two sectors, there is only three sectors where relative strength is going down. real estate, you closed a play for a winner, technology and of course health care. you actually, you have gotten out of these. what are the other areas, the other sectors that are looking attractive to you? >> yeah. so we were adding to industrials last summer when we had another opportunity to trim back tech pretty materially. we still like that space. in our 12 best ideas portfolio we added to honeywell when we were selling some of the underperformers. we added to goldman and we added to home depot. so i think that is an important discipline as well. you have got to look ahead, okay, where are we in the cycle, where are there attractive valuations? of course all those names fit our theme, old economy companies embracing, pivoting to

generative a.i. to picks and shovels. charles: nancy in my own research i rely technicals about 60, 56%. fundamentals, rather 60, 65%. technicals about 25% or so. behavioral is 10% what i do but this market in my opinion has been all emotions for the last couple of weeks which is interesting because on march 27. daniel conomon passed away at age 90. one of the few psychologists that did. you're a fan of his. 10 core ideas. ask about a couple of them. loss aversion. i think that is one of the biggest things that hurt investors. >> yeah. it is complicated, right? he actually quipped usually your sellers outperform the stocks that you bought, so irony what i just told you and delta is about 4% of total return. so his feeling was we would be better investors if we transacted less. i think that goes to loss

aversion. because take starbucks right now. i don't know what's going on with the name but it is probably time to add to it, not sell it. if you look back historically that has always been the case. if the fundamentals are still sound and intact, just look in the other direction and focus on your stocks that are winning and don't pull the trigger. >> i have got 30 seconds. let's do one more. the other side of that over confidence bias. this mainly applies to wall street and the smart money crowd. >> i know and by the way none of us are immune to that because when you buy something and it goes up you think it is because you're brilliant. so what you have to continue to do is maintain humility. i think you demonstrate that pretty well every single day on your show. you reexamine what you've gotten wrong and then you try to learn from it instead of doubling down on losing strategies or winning strategies and chasing them all the way up. charles: nancy, i thank you very much. i wanted to do this segment since his passing.

you were the perfect person to have this discussion with. see you soon, thank you. >> bye-bye. charles: these days everyone is kind of spying their next position, right? you feel like there is a sea change going on. including my next guest, ann berry. you're spying, looking at palo alto. here is the thing with palo alto. everyone kind of digs, kind much loves it last couple years, but every now and then it has crazy swoons where it falls apart including recently. it holding above key moving averages. you're watching it. what do you need to know or see before you buy and pull the trigger. >> i came into it but i've been watching it for a while. charles: okay, so you did buy it? >> i came into it. i came into it a couple weeks ago and here's what i saw. i was listening to what the conference had to say about the outlook. who was realistic about it? you know who said it would get tougher? who said it would have a plan.

these guys. best of class. saw announcement, google cloud doubling down on partnering with this name. it is there. number one choice. that means growth. charles: the chart still trends higher. every now and then you may be challenged to invest in it. make the swoons your friend. i know couple names you're buying ault at that and trade desk. what is it about ulta. maybe best in class, there is always a question mark whether people can go there afford it because there are cheaper options, aren't there? >> that is really good point. ulta is losing share in super expensive skin care part of the market. they have again gaining in the affordable parts. that is important. they partnered why serena williams who launched her own line in ulta. finding businesses like this that are leaders in their game

at around times ebitda where it is trade something pretty attractive in my eyes. charles: i discovered ulta 15 years ago. i dropped my wife in the strip store. i said come to me baby, come to me. they laughed at me at home. i don't use enough lotion. when i saw that store. i have to look at the financials. i never saw anything like that. let's talk about a.i., this ipo thing. >> yeah. charles: i thought this was interesting. this is your late-stage technology stuff and it is not blowing up. i mean it is okay but i thought it would be a lot higher than this. we had the ipo up 72% on the first day. i'm kind of excited and concerned. because i feel there will be a gazillion a.i. ipos out there. are you spying them already? >> they claim to be a.i. but let's talk about couple of them. hysteria. 70% pop on the day. reddit, lots of chatter around a.i. it is back to its ipo price

right now. charles: right. >> the other question for you, six months is the lockup, when insiders start to sell look what they're doing. we don't know what they're doing. charles: i only have less than a minute, maybe 40 seconds. i have to ask you. today norwegian cruise line is getting hammered. ironically because they don't have enough ships. they put an order for eight ships. vikes king, we see the commercials all day long. they're going public, folks. there is obviously demand but not enough supply. does that make you more eager to take a look, kick the tires? >> i remember coming on your show telling you i'm into carnival. you said ann, watch out the debt this is you are pure play independent premium cruise line player. five billion dollars of debt. charles: norwegian has 13 billion before the eight ships. so here's the thing though. they have only one, cruise is 1.5 to 2% of all vacations. you don't need a booming

economy. they need to take march in a booming vacation. >> build more ships. thanks, charles. charles: my next guest says it is becoming clear there will be no recession. maybe some cyclical concerns but no recession. ryan detrick, has anyone been bullish longer than he has? he has been right for a long time. hear what he has to say next. ♪. (vo) what does it mean to be rich? maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number... and more about discovering magic. rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. and also send them away. rich is living life your way. and having someone who can help you get there. the key to being rich is knowing what counts.

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so how can we undo the damage? we could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. their connection is unreal. and we could all un-experience this whole session. okay, that's uncalled for. ♪. charles: so when my next guest got bullish on this market it was a real lonely place to be, rather. he took a lot of slings and a lot of arrows paul though we've seen more firms here, wall street firms sort of jump on the bandwagon, they upped their targets. the targets do betray i called a feign enthusiasm. they're not real briefers. i say most of the street does not believe in this rally. joining me carson group chief strategist ryan detrick. it is human nature to think when things are great, bad news is around the corner. we all do it, it applies to the market. when you have this table up here, first quarter rally, what could be next, hey we should be embracing this thing, not

afraid, right? >> well, charles, you're right. thank you for having me back. what we're sharing here, when you have a 10% gain in the first quarter, that's a lot. let's not forget we gained over 10% in the fourth quarter. what happens after 10% gains, charles, like we're showing there. april is usually not that great. that is kind of where we are right now. second quarter is about average. the rest of the year is higher nine out of 10 times, nine out of 10! let's not be scared to a good start of for the year. charles: i will under score that in your stable. 10.2%. we've seen a few of these aprils to your point either down or relatively flat. somehow the final nine months we come roaring back, 91% of the time it is higher this is absolutely phenomenal. you get another 7%. so, this, that is the sort of thing that i really, really love. i want to ask you about some of the other things. for instance this surge in earnings expectations. when you look at something like this, i think maybe it could be contrarian as well. do you just take that at face

value? >> well you're right. these are forward expectations. so they can change. there is no question there but at the same time, we saw, charles, forward expectations for earnings up 3% last quarter. what in the world does that mean to the listeners? that is a huge number. in 2019 when things were good, forward expectations only jumped 2% the whole year. there are different ways to look at this but to our take the economy is still strong. earnings are probably still going to surprise to the upside and earnings are justifying this bull market we've been in, 15, 16 months now. charles: it is interesting, at the beginning of the year the market was schropppy, maybe tax-loss selling earnings went down, but to your point they have gone absolutely parabolic. i am always learning from you. i never heard of the december low theory or indicator, whatever, burr you point this out it is important that the december low holds. explain to the audience why it is so important. >> yeah if the december holds

during the first quarter, if you violate, in 2022 we violated december lows early in the year. that is warning sign. 37 times it violated, 37 times it did. that is pretty big sample size. we did not violate it this time. the average for the bull is up 19%, right? higher 35 out of 37 times! some of the best years in history were like this. very quickly 2008, 2022, early 2000s all violated early in the year. those were warning signs. charles, fortunately we're not seeing that and again, last year when i came on the air everyone was bearish. these are things we were looking at, talking about, they played out last year. we think we could have similar strength this year to end the year. charles: we're bullish. the theme of the show where do you want to be if you are pull like. i know you like cyclicals, mostly industrials and financials and small and mid-caps. cyclicals, industrials, financials, where would you come out of though? would you come out of tech to be

there or? yeah? >> yeah. we've taken a little bit out of tech. we're more neutral tech. honestly, charles, for a long time we've been underweight the defensives, your utilities, your staples, things if economy is in a recession kind of things that will struggle. quickly mid-caps have done fine. small caps is this thing, everyone gets excited talking about them. know this, lot of earning growth and lot of revenue can come from small caps. we think small and mid we're overweight. we don't see a recession. charles: ryan, we keep this stuff on record. i want you to know. good stuff, my man. you've been killing it. >> appreciate it. charles: folks americans are expected to miss upcoming debt payments the highest level in four years. when i tell you the number it will blow your mind. art laffer, on why, why the best economy ever is so shake -- shaky. he's next.

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charles: all right, small business optimism out. let's just say a lot of folks are looking for a lifeline and they are worried. lydia hu has those details. >> reporter: charles, that is a great way to put it, a lifeline because we're reading the latest national federation of independent business optimism survey.

it is out and it is depressing. the headline number showing small business optimism is weak. 88.5. that is the weakest we've seen going back to 2012. the hard data when we take a look it is waving a big red flag. that is declining and it is declining quickly but even more dire and concerning might be plans around to hire. small businesses are losing optimism around that. they are tracking a decline here, consistent with periods of recession from prior times. that's very concerning as well. we're not sure how these trends are really going to resonate with the fed and how much it will influence their decision-making moving forward but we do have this from the former st. louis fed chair james bullard. he says he still thinks there are three rate cuts on the table because he has taken the committee and their chair at their word. consider this, there is a potential problem. some committee hawks are growing more vocal with their concerns about cutting rates in the near term. we've had no policy dissents since june of 2022 but if we

have a change with the dissents now that could really complicate a shift in policy moving forward. charles, send it back to you. >> as if we need more complications. lydia, thank you very much. i want to bring in investment management global chief economist, as well as chief strategist, frances donald. feels like the plot thickens more each day with respect to the federal reserve. i'm curious, how many rate cuts are you modeling for right now? >> we also have three. we take the fed at its word for 2024, yet, charles i find so interesting we're always talking about 2024 versus 2025. for most investors, whether it happens in the calendar year, the section next six months is far more relevant than what the next two years will look like. we see consensus in june. maybe going couple times this year we do believe by the end of this year we'll be in something that looks awful like a recession n 2025 this fed will be cutting a lot more than the market has currently priced in.

i really encourage everyone move away what is your call for 2024 and start asking, what does this easing cycle look like ahead and i think it will be a much more traditional easing cycle, much more similar to what we've seen in the past with recession than a soft landing type of marginal decline. guess what, charles? i think in the long run that is better for risk assets and better for risk investors. charles: two things then f we ultimately see more cuts you think the fed in your mind is going to wait too long? >> you know what? no. the danger of course, even though i do believe inflation will come down and even though i do believe that the data will weaken and merit an easing cycle they do have to be very careful because there are upside risks to inflation. we saw that small business optimism report this morning very consistent with downturn of a recession but embedded within it was concern about small businesses about inflation still being the number one problem.

if that sounds like that dreaded word stagflation, charles, i agree with that sentiment. low growth, hiring falling, market weakness sinking in and inflation being persistent. that is real challenging situation for the federal reserve. i think they will wait longer. the risk they go later, maybe even september is still something. we're talking about on our team as the start point but end up going a lot more. some trades at the very front end of that that will be relevant the next few months but most investors need to focus on this easing cycle over the next several years will look like. i think it will be much more traditional, at least 400 basis points. charles: you brought up something that i have tried to articulate on this show with data many times, the longer they waited in the past the better it has been longer term for the markets, right? that being said i'm assuming a large chunk of the rally we've seen since last october was predicated on a rate cut by june. do you think, when the general consensus, if it changes from

june to july, whatever, that at least we'll get a near term hiccup in the stock market? >> well it's possible but it depends on why. are we pushing out rate cut expectations from june to september which is already happening. we're only 50-50 chance because the economy is doing so well we added 303,000 jobs? that is not a reason to go risk-off. or are we seeing inflationary pressures cream back in and stagflation component. it is not so much when the rate cut moves or changes as much why is it moving. now what i think is happening now, the data is looking hot. we're still in the soft landing camp. we could move from june to september and still be bullish. what is more problematic if inflation pushes it out further, flip side, second half, data starts to deteriorate more quickly and the fed has to move faster. even with rate cuts coming on and potentially the market say

we may get more rate cuts in 2025 than we expected, if it is driven by concerns about the economy deteriorating that will not be risk-on. that is what history shows us. charles: if it feels like an emergency and that orderly i ray agree. you're the best. i will think about you when the cpi comes across tomorrow. >> thank you. charles: let's go back to lydia hu on a problem the fed cannot control. that is our government spending. >> reporter: yeah, such a great point, charles, when it comes to the fed we have to remember that is outside of their control, right? and for the first quarter of 2024 we saw a $1.1 trillion deficit. as you can see, spending here just continued to soar. we're hitting $3.3 trillion up from 3.1 just a year ago. we can also track here a increase in revenues, that jumped by 7%. where did the increase in revenues come from? taxes. corporations paid 35% more in taxes. individuals and payroll taxes those increased as well, up by 6% each.

as for the outlays we took a look, three components jumped out to us. we're tracking a 124% increase in outlays for who? the fdic. you remember, silicon valley bank, signature bank, first republic, we're seeing increase in spending by $30 billion to facilitate the resolution of those bank failures. the fdic says they will get it back but through premiums on other fdic insured banks. spending on food and nutritional supplemental benefits, that also tracked a change. we're seeing a decline by 24% or $23 billion. that is the end of those emergency snap benefits. finally, charles, we have increase of 43% spending on net interest on public debt. that's all because interest rates are just simply higher. charles, back to you. charles: we're getting close to the magical trillion dollars a year just to pay interest on our debt. lydia, thank you very much. very special guest coming now,

laffer founder, art laffer. month ago cbo projected $1.1 million deficit for the entire year. we're 1.1 trillion in the first quarter. that seems like madness. what are your thoughts on this. >> you're right, unfortunately this is maddersness. you have student loan forgiveness biden got around the supreme court. the good news revenues are way up because ever trump tax cuts. that is good news. if you look at it also, charles, cryptocurrencies have spiked way up. gold prices spiked way up, all indicating more inflation in the future. you look at the unemployment rate it is still below 4%. if you look at all of these others, the prices, whether the consumer price index other the producers price index all of them show a leveling off if not a rising. even the short-term interest rates are up. i just don't see how anyone who believes in what the fed is doing, and i'm not one of them,

i don't see how anyone can think they should be lowering interest rates anytime this year. it just makes no sense. all of the indicators are against them lowering rates but everyone is now putting in three rate cuts. it makes no sense. charles: it makes no sense. and i think that is going to change. yesterday at the close it was only two. wall street wants it so badly and so desperately. let's be honest, wall street loves free money. i don't think wall street itself cares where the money comes from. if the federal government is printing it, ultimately it will go to the bottom line of corporations. you don't get a lot of pushback but yesterday we had jamie dimon saying this is a sos. he put out an sos to the nation. wake up. this is it. inflation may spike up to 8% or more again. >> jamie dimon may be right. i don't see it that large but i don't see a lot of things but, there is no -- i would be surprised if there is a big drop in the inflation rate tomorrow,

with oil prices higher, with spot commodity prices higher, with gold prices higher, with cryptocurrencies higher. all of these indicate that there should be, if anything, a little rise in the rate of inflation. this is not a time, given their model, i always say this, given their model they should be lowering interest rates it is just not. they espouse one story and dot second. charles: and i think the tell was that last fo 346789 c when somehow powell pivoted wanting to rescue the jobs market if it needed rescuing and ignoring inflation. i want to ask you this. you alluded to it already but i wanted to bring it out. yesterday michael from morgan stanley the federal deficit would expand by 450 billion under democrats but a trillion on the republicans because there would be no revenue. now from the way i understand it, the way you articulated it, i think the way history shows, revenue from economic activity goes up when taxes are lower.

hence, that's where you get a lower deficit? >> well, not only does economic activity go up, but economic sheltering. the using of tax shelters ault of that disappears. the one thing we know from the tax cuts and jobs act under president trump it led to a very strong economy and led to increase in tax revenues, not a reduction. if you look at those tax revenues right now it is because the of the tax cut and jobs act. biden has not been able to change those back. goodness knows if he were elected he would do it. if you did that, look for more revenue sources he will not find them. raising stacks rates we will have a larger deficit than lowering tax rates going forward. this person from morgan stanley is totally wrong on the revenues and how tax rates and revenues work. it doesn't work that way. charles: art, before i let you go, i find it really intriguing, like a central theme of all the speeches i will give here, on one hand president biden says

our economy is on the entry of the world. on the other hand he wants to dismantle it make it more like europe, high taxes, no borders, more regulation f it is envy of the world why don't we keep it the way it is and make a few tweaks? >> he doesn't understand economics. he doesn't have a economic model. owe is throwing out phrases depends upon the audience to make you feel better. i don't know if you feel better we're the envy of the world. we'll have to raise tax as lot going forward. i hate the rich people. all of this stuff it guys bell did i cook. it is doesn't make. low rates, broad bases, man mall taxes sound money. less regulation. get out of the way. that is the way to get to prosperity. he is going the wrong direction in every one of those five kingdoms. charles: eyic ironic we have the

greatest economy in the world but we have to pay off student loans. we'll lean on you between now and november, my friend. drink some gatorade. we'll need some help. >> i'm here with you, sir. charles: okay, some popular trades are struggling, right? feels like there is leadership change in the market but where will all the hot money go? david nelson is here to share a few names right after this. ♪. [city noise] investment opportunities are everywhere you turn. do you charge forward? freeze in your tracks? (♪) or, let curiosity light the way. at t. rowe price, we're asking smart questions about opportunities like clean water. and how clean water advances can help transform our tomorrows.

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“the price lock, the price lock...” so, if you could change the price, change the name! it's not a lock, i know a lock. so how can we undo the damage? we could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. their connection is unreal. and we could all un-experience this whole session. okay, that's uncalled for. ♪. charles: all right, folks, don't look now but five sectors in the s&p, out of 11, five are outperforming technology there year. my next guest says that is actually a good thing. belpointe chief strategist david nelson. david, let's start with the disappointments in the whole tech sector. everyone seems they're abandoning apple right now. a part of me gets excited when everyone dump as stock but i haven't done anything with it. >> i own it. it is not my favorite stock. looks like they missed the most important technology revolution in a generation but over the last month is actually

outperformed nvidia, fractionally. charles: fractionally. we'll take small victories n the last hour it has been killing it you can change to other financial channels and get that. in the last three minutes did you see the winners? in the list, not surprising, there are 503 stocks. so 500 is the worst is boeing. 502 worst is, what is the, tesla, right? so boeing we're not surprised. it is in the headlines every day as a disaster. you're a pilot. everyone always asks you about boeing i'm sure. what are you telling them? >> look they, certainly dropped the ball. i tell them go somewhere else. it will take an iconic leader. already larry culp said he is not going there. charles: we had that discussion. >> we had the discussion. it will take somebody to change the culture there. it can be done. that will be the entry point. charles: you mean someone like

jack welch, someone comes in fires a whole lot of people, not to save money but because root out the bad habits? >> the culture has developed over the last decade they're focused on share price. you know there is a fine balance between aircraft delivery and safety. they have clearly crossed that line. charles: right. i think it was a big mistake take someone off the board who oversaw all the hijinks in the first place. are you looking at anything in tech right now? >> look, i own a lot of tech. charles: but are you looking at anything new? i just started the show, relative strength. tech is starting to come down a little bit. anything starting to say, all right getting to that sweet spot maybe? >> i have so much tech i don't think i could handle much more. the closest thing to new tech i bought is best buy. it is a turn-around play. over the last month, dividends are outperforming. it is the most important factor over the last month. you look what is going on. when i look at a dividend stock i want to see one that is

supportable. number two, something going on at the company to rerate the shares. charles: really. >> that is happening at best buy. three analysts upgrading the shares. charles: my experiences there get worries and worse that. is almost everything. >> i was just there, i had a great time. charles: really? >> last time i was in in ap appe store. i was talking to a salesman he took a break in the middle of the sale. charles: talk about ccj. that is a name i know you're buying or a name that you like. >> i like it a lot. charles: what is moving that. >> it is pretty clear we'll have to broaden other view on energy because there is this battle going on between fossil fuel and alternative energy. we'll need and all ten tougherring in supply that can handle increasing demands of the electrical grid. charles: that is nuclear. >> it is nuclear. charles: uranium? >> the good news is canada. a lot of the uranium supply in parts of the world where there is fair amount of geoinstability. as last time i looked canada is

still a friend. charles: as long as we keep the borders open. i can't let you go without asking but the cpi number. everyone has a opinion. frances donald says don't worry when the cuts are happening they will happen. that is when, unless it is abrupt that is -- >> i'm not assure. history shows that it usually take as market event before the fed actually does something. i will go one step even further. now pmi data is in expansion territory. in the last half century the fed has never, never, initiated a cutting cycle while the pmi was above 50. charles: but the pmi went there after 16 months. >> doesn't matter. it's there. it's there. you kashkari comments, i'm not a fan of his -- charles: but you guys have the same barber. >> yes we do. charles: thanks a lot. >> thank you. charles: don't forget i am hosting "unbreakable investor." i'm calling it "the quiz show"

edition. you will love it. april 24th, 2:00 p.m. eastern. obviously it is coming soon. join me here in studio. the last couple were standing room only. they were a blast. more importantly people learned a lot, felt great about it this is what you have to do, go to eventbrite.com. you search charles payne. get your free ticket. do it right now. i will see you in a couple weeks. meanwhile the jobs report obviously an enormous influential data point for the economy and the marketing but why does wall street keep getting it wrong? i think the fix is in. i will ask a top wall street reporter what he thinks after this. ♪.

charles: all right, so how often do cu you always hear, hey, the monthly jobs report is out, and guess what? a surprise, it beat wall street expectations. come on. we went over this in a chart,

since january 2022, 22 out of 26 reports have beaten expectations. spoke toes, listen, i said last -- folks, listen, i said last thursday the fix was in. it's either because these people are doing an awful a job because, listen, these are not small misses. these are misses by 80,000, 100,000. joining me now, "wall street journal" with dionne with ramon. great podcast. i tell everyone, i think everyone should listen to it. e really love the way you flow through it, you coffer everything. but it's, like, here we go. the february beat was 75,000, the january beat was 168,000. we had a beef with 328,000. -- a beat with 328,000. very few on the survey establishment side, 30% are ab taking it. then you have this. it's surprising how influential this number still is. i don't have a lot of faith anytime. >> and you know what's interesting, i wrote a story about this back in october where where we'd gotten 10 straight months atta point of negative if

revisions. economists would say, oh, we think it's going to be here, and then they'd revise it back down the next month. the response rate has been really low, and that's because a lot of these companies just aren't getting back to the government. that's a big part of this. the other big part is there's this expectation that the economy's going to slow down, job growths are going to slow down. economists keep saying we think it's going to be low this month, and and they keep being surprised. i don't know that the fix is in, charles, but i will tell you there's been an expectation that the economy is going to slow down, and it just hasn't happened. charles: you're a lot nicer -- [laughter] i think the fix is n. >> that's all you. you're over there with that the one by yourself. charles: they always have the mom poms next to the table. -- pom-poms next to the table. how the hell did that the happen? if let's talk about maybe not pom-poms tomorrow for the cpi report. you talk to a lot of influential people what's the sense you're getting on the street with some of the smart money folks? >> the expectation right now is worry, and that's why you're seeing what you're seeing in the market right now.

no one wants to sell, no one wants to get out of those big positions and say, okay, you know that what? if i'm throwing in the towel. if folks are worried because if this comes in higher than expected, we're talking about four months in a row of higher than expected inflation, and you talked about it earlier on the show. these rate cuts from the federal reserve, welsh jerome powell and the fed can't cut rates if inflation keeps being higher than expected, keeps coming in above 3%. it's not moving back down to 2%. that was the big theme of 2023, that really ended in october and november, december, january, february. we've only in consistently -- come in consistently above 3% -- charles: right. so what i'm hearing is two things. i always see where there's sort of the rationization, ah, they don't get their rates right, that's to coming down, or the defacto rate is maybe 2.5% fed has said we don't have to hit 2% before we start cutting, so maybe we could get more of that tomorrow if depending on the

number. >> absolutely. i will tell you this. if this number comes in hot again, those the rationalizations are out the window. e said this on sunday, okay, one, two, maybe three months of overexpectations u sure, we can write that off. charles: maybe it gets cold in january. [laughter] >> maybe it's the weather. but four months? no, no, no, four months, my friend, that is what a trend is. and the fed if really can't ignore that. folks in the market can't ig e mother that and expect to see a lot of eyeballs on wall street on this number on wednesday. charles: before i let you go, another thing origin is the fomc minutes. we just had lydia hu showing where disis starting -- dissent is starting to bubble within the federal reserve. that whole dot plot thing, the three cuts were by one so-called dot. are you expecting something juicy out of this tomorrow? >> i don't know about just city -- charles: you don't think they were throwing stuff at each other? [laughter] >> in the lounge? if i don't think that was what

was happening. but i will say i think the fed has been very clearly making a statement. we don't know all a those rate cuts y'all have priced in are going to happen, and they're trying to move the market off of this idea that rate cuts are for sure. charles: they put us on the idea, right? if powell took a semi-victory lap -- >> he did, but it was wasn't, okay, everything's all right now. what they're been saying since the start of the year was three cuts. the market said six, seven, the fed said three. charles: right. >> and the last meeting the fed said three, we think, is the max. now that's the ceiling. so again what we could see in these minutes is another sign to wall street, hey, listen, you guys are overdoing it, overcooking the books right now, need to pull back. charles: nothing i hate worse than burnt -- [laughter] take it easy, my man. just with as a we were discussing, tomorrow we get that cpi report, consumer price index. the operative word is consumer.

a new mackenzie survey reveals consumers plan to spend a lot less on toys, skin care, vehicles, vitamins, non-alcoholic beverages, though, which are essential items, right in we also learned that 8 in 10 consumers right now have been trading down. you know it because you're one of them. and then there's the last survey we got yesterday, consumer expectations. this from the new york fed. and they -- people, this is really important, folks out there expect to miss a minimum debt payment, a minimum if debt payment. so, you know, one -- once you start missing debt payment, they begin to balloon, and and all hell breaks loose sooner rather than later. you to know the last hour of trading, anything can happen. liz has got your back. liz: that is so true, anything could happen. at least at the moment, charles, you were just talking about cpi? if investors were airplane, they'd kind of be in a holding pattern, maybe descending just a bit. we have got the s&p down