potentially after. i don't, i'm in the larry plane here, larry kudlow. i don't think you will get any cuts at all. brian: it is too hot. taylor: eclipse glasses, jackie. before we talk about the fed we block you out with the eclipse glasses. can you read the prompter? brian: you can't see anything out of these. that is the trick. i can't see a thing. i wouldn't see you there. taylor: i procured these especially just for you two. you can use them on friday's protect friday's eyes. brian: that is wonderful. i wonder if charles payne has these glasses, that guy has a line of sight new everything. he could probably see everything. charles: even superman could not see threw these bad guys. they help you block the eclipse and everything else! thanks a lot. good afternoon. i'm charles payne and this is "making money."

breaking right now, so we are on the verge of totality, for the stock market and of course this rare solar total eclipse as investor sentiment hit euphoric levels. it is important to ask yourself, what is the value proposition and where exactly do you need to be investing? lucky for you this is an amazing hour. we'll have some of the smartest people in the business. we have phil blancato, jack ablin all in and a couple others. by the way traders kicked off the year expecting six other seven rate cuts. now we're betting some say none? frances newton on how you should adjust your portfolio. jamie dimon has a stark warning. he says the economy is propped up by government spending and rising deficits. duh. the bigger question what should we do about it? i love to hear from you. tweet me @cvpayne. my takeaway on continued efforts to browbeat folks that their economy is great. all that and so much more on

"making money." ♪. charles: all right, folks, a special show, the nation engulfed in total eclipse mania. we're talking about the path of totality, not just for the guys but for the stock market, moonshots, our star, we have all of that in today's show. i'm not saying there is a direct correlation but this is pretty intriguing. i went back to look at total eclipses going back to 1950 for the s&p. we've done pretty well. 5 l 49%. 63 up 19%. 1970 we were up. 72 we were up. we were only one once, 1990, down 7%. last one we had we were up 19%. maybe this will be a good omen for the market. of course the question is, at what stage of the rally are we at? i got to tell you something,

changes on the ground have eclipse enthusiasm on wall street. here is an important gauge of investor sentiment. this is euphoria, folks. this is euphoric and on wall street that is not necessarily a good sign. stock side is upside, the value proposition is getting harder and harder to explain. here is the thing that i find really intriguing. remember last summer the july 31st was the day, the 10-year yield pierces through 4% right here? the yield pierces through. it goes straight up. of course you remember the stock market went straight down. it abruptly fell apart for the rest of the summer into early fall. of course that is when jay powell and company came to the rescue. despite growing calls of anxieties out there, wall street seems to get more and more bullish every day. wells fargo today are looking for a melt-up in the second half of the year. new target, 5235. i'm not sure if that is the top target but that is inkrieging. that is long way from where they

were. they made a massive adjustment. earnings $242. here is what they're looking at. a.i. enthusiasm. easing of borrowing cost. political outcomes in support of greater m&a. sound like they think trump will win. anyway, wall street is excited. if you go back to earnings, we're essentially going back to talk to "the magnificent seven" and a few other stocks. the top 10 markets in the market according to bank of america are still going to do all the heavy lifting when it comes to earnings. again does this mean you keep buying the dip and no specific names and not broadening out our your portfolio. mr. cool breeze, phil blancato. >> i can try. charles: sounds to me wall street still wants to have its cake and eat it too. markets will keep going up. the economy will keep going up. we'll all live happily ever after. by the way the fed will cut. can all three coexist?

>> no, they have cannot. we only hit 3% earnings growth in the fourth quarter. the stock mark credit is trading above its historical average, in fact significant letter depending where you look at it. my point, rates have not gone lower. i have been wrong on that. inflation is not out of the way, stock market is going to get hit for it. charles: to your point the first quarter they're looking at s&p three 3%. >> yep. charles: usual suspects, bank of america was so excited about nvidia they named it twice. i think meant microsoft. as a bottom line as an investor do i con sin to seek opportunities out of this or do i buy on dips? >> think about an exxon, energy, how well it has done. there is opportunity in the other stocks to do well especially the dividend payers t will shield you. charles: a lot of these are not big time dividend-payers though. >> i want you to take profits

and mitigate exposure to these things. you killed it in every one of these names. i like jpmorgan. made a bunch of money. think what every one has done in nvidia. need to take profit around use other names. nothing wrong with holding cash and paying 5%. think wall street's wrong at least until the end of the year until we get a better idea where the fed is at. charles: as much as wall street, saying after this inflection point for earnings, we pick up momentum. at the end bottom four do well. i'm excited about this the margin reversal. i like to base my investments expanding margins. how do you feel about, the margins expanding there, your thoughts there? >> those are tied to cash flow. margin expansion is critical to have a strong stock portfolio. the reason why you made money, mag-7 hit on it. while margin expansion is growing, that means the rest of the market is catching up. couple years we made honey in those a long time.

cash flow and margin expansion that is a stock you want to own. progressive insurance, a classic example of a company doing exactly that. charles: by the way my subscribers are long progressive. they got another upgrade today. they are piling on. bank of america private clients, t-bills, dumping them like a fire-sale. presuming this money is going into equities. you mentioned cash a moment ago what it is paying. a lot of people only want to be in stocks, no more bonds. 5% is not enough particularly look for another repeat of the market. wells fargo, everyone saying we'll go higher. >> i couldn't disagree more. i like the bond market for a lot of different reasons. interest rates will come down. you win on price. in short term you're getting 5% yield. it is free money. barbell portfolio. 25% short, 25% long. go into stocks. i bet a buck bond market will beat the stock market. charles: really? end of the year?

>> i will take that. charles: on record a buck. i got a buck. need you to hold this for me, jason. let me talk about your picks here. uber, progressive you talked about a little bit and ford. what is going on with uber? snook look at double-digit earnings growth. looking at cashing flow increased from price to earnings ratio. they're final thinkly there. 35% total sales. charles: what about profitability? they always had problem with profitability. >> they're now, at ebitda basis fancy term after all costs making money. i think in the growth aspect it is really exceptional. this is my tech play. i always like to balance you out. i talked about progressive from a cash november and profitability they're crushing it. where else do i get 5% dividend, single best truck company that will make an ev truck. charles: i think the reason the stock is moving now, they're putting ev on the shelf. >> exactly. but the hybrid ford model --

charles: hybrids where you want to be? >> i shouldn't have said ev the hybrid model, not ev for ford, 5% gives you a safe may have. charles: appreciate it, my man. how cool is my plan he can see with these things on. my next guest says s&p 500 earnings are really going to do extraordinarily well but his target -- his number is similar as well as wells fargo but the target is not as rambunctious. i want to bring in b. riley wealth management strategist art hogan. b. riley has got 253, target of 5300. actually wells fargo sees a little bit less but a higher target. your conservatism is on multiples here? and by the way we're not that far away from your target so you guys must be in the laboratory thinking about what comes next. >> great point, charles. i will tell you it felt a lot more rambunctious in december when we put this target out. after we work our way through

first-quarter earnings season which kicks off on friday, i suspect our consensus estimate for total of 24 will go a little bit higher. using the same multiple we'll probably have to take that target up. we like to wait and see a little bit. we put this out in december. we like to wait and see during the course of earnings season. we'll see if estimates move higher that is the pattern we've seen over the last four quarters. we'll see in market consensus, we're above consensus at 2583. i think there is room to the upside. if anything i think we're conservative to the downside but we put this out four months ago. charles: of course things have changed dramatically in the last four months. 5300 was really rambunctious back in december but a lot of folks are leapfrogging you. you were saying be overweight small caps. i kind of do this every monday with the folks last week. small caps have been coming on like gangbusters. last week small caps got waxed. small-cap growth down 3.1.

small cap growth got hammered. small-cap growth took it on the chin. still down significantly. i still think you see opportunity versus these but the false starts, art, how do we deal with the great one week, terrible the next week? >> i think what the thing is, what we saw coming into the year in our overweight call on small caps a couple of head winds turned into tailwinds. a, predominantly better economic growth. third and first quarter growth was terrific. looks like something we'll be in the 2 1/2% range with gdp. that is one one of the headwind. the other interest rates staying steady or falling. that happen ad bit from october to last week. we broke out on the 10-year. outside of range from 4, to 4.3%. got through 4.5% which is resistance that will be a headwind for small caps. i think we likely peak out at four 1/2. that is the next resistance level. when you see that coming down

you will see small caps reversely quick live. the mean to reversion, the think about the exact that the s&p is all time record, russell is still 15% below the all-time record. and multiples are not demanding at all in the small cap universe. we need interest rates plateau. obviously we got a bit of a bump in interest rates. if that comes down i think small caps will be the play. charles: they have been enticing for a long time. that is one of the reasons it is so frustrating. they have a great week, followed by not so great week. we have a minute to go. i have want to go over with the audience your barbell. energy financial, health care on the other side. well-placed growth you quantify that by liquidity, free cash flow, defensive leadership which i assume is like a strong moat. is there anytime that you, do you overweight one side versus another? let's say for instance those yields start coming down, would you get more aggressive one part of there approach rather than another? >> the way to get around that you set this at the beginning of the year.

then you want to recalibrate. if your large caps outperformed you take that down so the barbell is parallel. you do that on quarterly basis. think about the three on the other side of that barbell, three of the worst-performing sectors in the s&p 500 last year. energy is the best-performing sector, in the s&p in this particular quarter. we'll take some of that down a little bit. it outperformed everything else in the first quarter. that is how you keep the level. rebalancing during the course of the year. outperform the s&p last year. will like this year. charles: keeps discipline which we lose a lot of in these kind of markets. thank you so much, we appreciate it. >> thank you. charles: all right, folks, learn alden says you need to look at sector rotation if you wanted to take advantage of this market. she is here to break it down after this. meanwhile crude oil taking a little bit of a breather but we'll tell you more right after this. ♪.

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♪. charles: so crude oil taking a breather, but the reasons for its recent move including higher

geopolitical tensions, potential maybe that china's demand is boosting still in play. my next guest says oil and gas producers continue to be attractive across the board. joining me lyn alden investment strategy founder lyn alden. over the past year there have been so many false starts with oil. i think a lot of people were caught flat footed with this move. why is this move so sustainable? >> i think part of it is we're seeing some reacceleration with some of the harder data. the past cycle, the past 18 months driven by the consumer and 18 week purchasing managers index and other areas but in recent months you're seeing reacceleration in some of the manufacturing data and hard data. we're seeing some stabilization out of china. their economy is not exactly great. there is a bit of a policy shift there. so i think looking at the two biggest economies in the world we had a little bit of reacceleration. i think that is beneficial for

energy prices different than just geopolitical headlines. obviously geopolitics drives a lot of the short-term moves but there is a basis this time. charles: right. the refiners have been hot. npc, this quarter has been the biggest name. you also like midstream names and oil services here, right? >> yeah. i like both of those areas. neither of those have really run sharply yet. for example, if you look at midstream, they have been touching post-pandemic highs and the good thing about it they also pay you very high dividends once you own them. the 2015 to 2021 period was the whole bust phase for them. now the industry has restructured, recapitalized they have better cash flow policies. they're less reliant on constant equity issuance than they used to be. so i think their dividends are more sustainable. if you're looking for places in the energy sector that haven't really ripped yet but showing

upward price action i think midstream is and oil services. charles: let me get your thoughts on gold making a huge move here. at the same time over the last decade there was sort of a transition. it was quiet initially. foreign banks getting out of treasurys loading up on gold. i'll seeing them load up more on gold. what do you think the objective is here and what is the message? >> in the recent decades we were unipolar world and the world gravitated towards treasurys. ever since the global financial crisis and years that followed, the world is gradually shifted towards being multipolar, the fiscal deficits and debts are kind of unsustainable if you model them out with long-term positive real-year-olds. if you're a foreign investor you're looking at treasuries, you're saying these are probably long term unsustainable. they are freezable or confiscatable if i'm not aligned with u.s. interests. that is a risk for some

countries. looking for gold as a way to diversify their reserves i would argue is a no-brainer and the recent gold rally is happening despite tonnage in gold etfs has been very late. a big percentage of this is driven by central banks and foreign private investors. charles: conversely i'm reading in chinese same gold, the demand for gold is outrageous, right? partly an indictment of the u.s. and partly anything to do with perhaps being backbone of future alternative currency to the dollar? >> yeah i would argue in many ways it is return to normal sy. i think the period of the world focus almost exclusively on treasurys was kind of the anomaly when you think about it. i think as the world moves kind of back to a more multipolar world it makes sense for gold to be a larger percentage of reserves like it used to be in

decades prior. charles: i can tell you the audience listened to you on gold and oil are doing very well. so thank you very much. we'll talk again soon. >> see ya. >> jamie dimon is sounding the alarms in the latest shareholder letter. he cover ad whole lot of stuff. i have a power panel to break it down. you sent me great tweets. send more and we'll share them right after this. ♪. [ applause ] the day you get your clearchoice dental implants changes your struggle with missing teeth forever. it changes how you eat, how you feel, and how you enjoy life. it changes your smile and how others smile at you. clearchoice network doctors have changed over 100,000 lives with dental implants, and they can change yours, too. because a clearchoice day changes every day. schedule a free consultation.

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charles: all right, other than the eclipse, jamie dimon shareholder letter is making a whole lot of noise and everyone on wall street is talking about it. gerri willis is here to break it all down. gerri? >> reporter: just a few headlines i want to go over. somebody calls him a pugnacious neoliberal? okay. here are the money headlines, really. he calls folks too bullish right now which i thought was interesting and everybody's keying off of this headline, interest rates could hit 8% or more, people. he is warning about wars. so this is very big. he talks about politics impeding smart economic decisions. that would never happen now, would it? talking about liquified natural gas, the projects were delayed mainly for political reasons to pacify those who believe gas is bad and gas and oil projects simply should be stopped. this is not only wrong but he says enormously naive.

now on artificial intelligence, something else we're interested in, his firm, his company boasted more than 2000 a.i. learning machine experts and data scientists. in addition jpmorgan created a new position called chief data and analytics officer. he likened a.i.' potential impact to the steam engine and the technology could augment virtually every job, positive, okay? he pushes hard, this is my favorite part, for america to save the world. he is promoting american leadership here, achieving long-term economic success with our allies, strengthening our nation domestically. who does not like this, charles. fascinating letter. a lot of people are reading it. jackie: thank you, gerri. >> very much. joining me infrastructure capital management jay hatfield, deepwater, cofounder doug clinton. doug, let me start with you on this letter. it felt like good old-fashioned

wall street capitalism. to a degree it felt like he was talking his book. the thing is, not only america, the world is moving away, populism is taking over, notion of all alliances he is talking about we should lead, a lot of people listening pay for and sometimes even fight for. >> that's right. it was a little bit after throw it felt like. in the world i live in now i focus on tech. we look at regulation in america some of our moist powerful, most important companies are under at stack from the government and i think that weakens us internationally and i think dimon made that point in this letter. he talked about basal iii a little bit. how some of those policies could hurt american companies and their ability to compete internationally. charles: i saw something, jay, america innovates, china copies, europe regulates. europe, all these american companies are changing the world are going through hell with european regulators. the basal three situation, good

thing jay powell came out listen, it will be fixed up but there is sort of this idea how much leadership should we provide and how much sacrifice should americans make so the whole world is okay? >> well definitely, and i think that, you are seeing that the, a lot of leaders in europe are realizing they have to step up and bolster nato. so we are seeing some good trends. >> lip service. they're writing checks? >> there is some increase. not up to what the u.s. level is. charles: okay. >> we are also focused on europe because they are as you pointed out they are kind of a socialist area and their economy is very weak. we think they will cut-rate first. we don't agree with jamie's 8% scenario. charles: you're not worried about that. where do you think we will go? listen we started the year with six or seven cuts, now they're down to three or less cuts. there is realization the fed may not come to the rescue or maybe they don't have to come to the rescue? >> definitely.

the reason we're not concerned about that. europe will cut first, they effectively announced that. ecb, uk will follow. europe already cut that will give our fed headroom to cut. that will strengthen the dollar dramatically if we don't and they do. that should cap oil prices which is really driving inflation higher right now. we think cpi will print hot on wednesday. so we're bullish that once the ecb cuts the fed will go at least two times starting in july. charles: doug, talk about the a.i. part. it was interesting. it will augment just about every job, virtually every job. some folks are concerned it will take just about every job at some point? >> i think it will do both. dimon says that in his letter as well. i think there are some jobs, when you have a element, kernel of human creativity involved in the job, i think a.i. can augment this. i think it will make humans even better. i think for jobs more rote employment, cashiers, truck drivers, these jobs historically

things that could be under threat to a.i. i think ultimately some of those do go away, but net-net humans still have things that machines can't do around creativity, around building community. i think that is where we will see the jobs of the future. charles: real quick, let me ask you because your research is a.i. based. you use a.i. in your research the way you invest in this market? >> we do. we have some strategies we're using generative a.i., things like gpt from a.i., and pick stocks. the results have been incredible. we have 50 different strategies we track on those. the average strategy is winning by benchmarks more than 300 basis points. charles: staying on a.i., jay, in your note, you had something many of your picks are indirect a.i. plays. are we talking about getting away from picks and shovels and companies that implement them best? >> exactly. specifically investment banks. everybody kind of forgets whenever there is a tech boom,

it is ipo boom. may not happen until '25 but big investment banks, goldman sachs will benefit from that. much hated area, reits. everybody talks about work from home. you actually need to be in the office to do a.i. you have to have inchips and hardware and it is an emergency. everybody is working in the office. we varified with brokers in silicon valley. that office space is, absorbed. the companies are very you undervalued. charles: you like real estate investment trusts. cre is creating opportunity in your find and forget worries about cre? >> we have 350 target on 10-year, not 8% target like jamie dimon says. you need to have an interest rate rally for those stocks to work. charles: i hope it starts soon. do you have not a stop less, but a mental point i have to go back to the drawing board, 4.7, 5% yield? >> not necessarily. we had the blow why you have in june, july august.

that was driven by the ecb taking liquidity out of the system. we would only capitulate if the ecb indicate they would not cut this year. charles: doug, talk about stocks you like. you like meta and alphabet. a lot of folks talk about that i would like to talk about taiwan semi which is in the news big time. crt is name i played with my subscribers but i don't think a lot of people know it. >> taiwan semi, there was great news for them. $11 billion from the chips act to help build a fab in arizona. the story with taiwan semi they are the leader. >> amazes me. i've been in taiwan semi, i've been in couple years. it was did. no one wanted the stock a year ago. all of sudden everyone wants it. it sparked after chatgpt, that was fading a little bit, this was the second spark for all these semi. >> it was in every semimaker, nvidia, amd, using advanced chips. they have to use taiwan semi.

there is no other maker in the market that can do what they do. you mentioned very tiff. they make basically liquid cooling solutions for data centers. the chips consume a lot of electricity. they put out a lot of heat. they need to be cooled in ways, that is what vertiv does. charles: you may have to some regulatory talk. you can't have it both ways. you can't have a great economy and regulate this stuff. europe is learning that hard way. doug, thank you, first time on the show. i'm hosting "unbreakable investor" town hall. i'm calling it "the quiz show" edition. wait and see. april 24th, 2:00 p.m. here in studio. last couple shows were standing room only. it is a blast. you can learn a lot. go to eventbrite.com, get your free ticket. look for charles payne.

i will see you in a couple weeks. investor enthusiasm, time to curb it? jack ablin here after this. ♪.

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♪. charles: it is really interesting coming into the session the fear and greed index shifted into neutral here at 50. what is really craze by this, a month ago we were in extreme greed. we've gone from here to there. i don't feel that way but my next guest says biggest risk in the markets particularly earnings seasons investor enthusiasm running ahead of fundamentals. i want to bring in crescent chief investment officer, founding partner, jack ablin. and, jack, i have one ever other charts here to sort of explain that stuff. before we get to this, this enthusiasm, this overenthusiasm, isn't that part and parcel anytime the market starts to run like this? >> it is. you know i think enthusiasm and momentum feeds on itself. good news we gets more good news and then everyone starts looking for opportunities to get in,

absolutely, so there is certainly an element of that you point out, yeah. charles: the concern here with respect to, we've got, again we got one of your charts up here. are you looking for potentially aer. >>-term miss or a hiccup on earnings? -- near term mismiss. the expectations built into the market, if you consider as you talked about earlier, we started the year five or six rate cut expectations. we're down two or three. meanwhile the market is up 10% anyway. bonds, oil, up, suggesting we have higher growth, higher inflation expectations. so it is like on one side of the aisle we've got oil and we've got interest rates and on the other side of the aisle we've got gold and we've got equities. they want, they're expecting lower rates and they're rallying in anticipation of that. charles: right. >> and of course higher rates

and higher oil prices are on the other side of it. charles: right. >> so i do think expectations for earnings are probably a little bit high and they may come through and that's what i'm hopeful will happen. charles: we'll break it down here a little bit because you've got of course you have the nasdaq 100 which is a lot of these tech names trading at a much higher multiple than the s&p 500 but it feels like these megacap tech names it is hard to see them missing, right? >> right. charles: we can see the bifurcation of this market so many people fretted about last year, it could be the case going forward after this earnings season as well. >> it could be. in fact i will say, and i think i've been on your show before saving i don't believe there is a tech bubble. i don't think we're anywhere near a tech bubble because all of the earnings in the s&p are fueled by the mag-7 essentially. in fact if you strip away there quarter's earnings expectations out, from the s&p, out of the mag-7, the rest of the s&p would

be down year-over-year earnings. so i think that we need that mag-7 to continue to push the earnings higher near term and then what it looks like as we navigate the end of the year the mag-7 will have a smaller impact on earnings growth and then the s&p will, we'll call 493, it will start pushing a little bit higher. charles: between now and then another part that you brought up is worth sharing with the audience, if earnings aren't going to be the things that propels 493 right now it has to be fed rate cuts. we shed the relative, equal weight market, this is one of your great charts. we have the equal weight coming down along with the probability of rate cuts coming down. it's, i mean if we start to go to two rate cuts, one rate cut, there is nothing really there to get the rest of the market going, is there? >> no. we just keep pushing it off and pushing it off. i think that you know that's

where it's, you know we're a little concerned because i think where everyone is ready for this rotation. i'm certainly ready for it. i love some of the other, you know, smaller names, dividend oriented stocks, reits things like that but we need lower overnight rates to really help that push happen and right now, now we're down to three or potentially two, sure we may get some next year but eventually, you know that will come through but we may be putting it off six months or even longer. >> i started to show, you know, going over the fact that one week small caps looked great. the very next week they give it all back and it is certainly very frustrating because from a valuation point of view they feel like a slam-dunk. i have 30 seconds. i want to share with the audience some of your dividend ideas. chevron, 4% yield. chubb, 1.4% yield. ibm, 3.5% yield. this ibm is really intriguing

because it is becoming a a.i. favorite as well. >> not only that but i think their dividend is expected to grow like 10%age points over the next three or four years so i do think that ibm could be that secret, quote, unquote, value play within the tech space that can benefit from this a.i. theme as well. charles: wow. a two-fer. jack, thank you very much, my friend. appreciate it. >> thank you. charles: hey, my next guest says it is time to buy the dip, looking to energy, tech, commodities and a few others. so be ready. you have to adjust your portfolio because we're in for some serious volatility right after this. e ♪

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when it comes to investing, we live in uncertain times. some assets can evaporate at the click of a button. others can deflate with a single policy change. savvy investors know that gold has stood the test of time as a reliable real asset. so how do you invest in gold? sandstorm gold royalties is a publicly traded company offering a diversified portfolio of mining royalties in one simple investment. learn more about a brighter way to invest in gold at sandstormgold.com. charles: a solar eclipse is seen in russellville arkansas. i have to tell you something, the path to totality why is that not marvel character. over the weekend a lot of talk about stan drunken miller alleging of wall street saying he's waiting on a fat pitch a process where he's always reevaluating this process pretty

stressed humility and he says he wants to stay alive financially until the chaos comes because it's coming. let's bring in operable capital strategy analyst frances newton stacy. great to see you. >> nice to see you. >> it seems like a strange comment worth $6 billion, every time they talk gloom and doom but when they say chaos is coming that's omnibus. >> chaos is coming if you're worth $6 billion what you lose on a given day is what i lose on a given day i understand upset. chaos is coming the reason the business cycle is not broken. it's been elongated, the fed has long and variable lags they admit that they have been tightening and they raised interest rates and reduce the balance sheet but what is been filling in the fiscal spending we spent 1.4 trillion in less than six months, that is insane

what you got next to that the private credit coming in when the banks were lending last year and everybody's putting something on a credit card and when everybody puts it on a credit card it adds to the money supply. charles: then there were special programs after the silicon valley bank went out. liquidity never went away as far as the business cycle i thought it was shattered, you said it's still going to come in a day of reckoning so to speak. we've been waiting for this to go off the cliff or a decade or so. hasn't happened per se in some people say the election can be about why not do something like monetary theory and keep printing, keeps being pushed out because the keep printing more money, why can't they do that forever. >> this is what happens it does not matter under monetary theory it does not matter how much debt as long as you can service the debt but the problem is 60% of the u.s. populace living paycheck to paycheck putting things on credit cards on "the big money show" there is a huge

percentage of people that are skipping meals. when the credit goes away a certain percentage that consumer is going to fall off when jamie dimon seen a present interest rates, i don't think people paying credit cards are going to go with 35% interest rates. i don't think they can push it that far. powell has a fork in the road he can either preemptively cut in the hope that he does not find a threshold or something breaks. when you reduce the liquidity in the system you don't remove the debt so you hit a threshold any contractor keep it from coming which i think is a dovish talk this year or he can wait until something breaks into the pivot then. charles: when he started hiking rates i thought it was to break something. let me ask you about this in prominence of the u.s. dollar is fading. >> this is what is scary. the last i read you have something like on the order of 36 countries looking to join the brics alliance.

the brics alliance is gathering and going to hit critical mass at some point in the problem is they are loading up on gold and dumping the u.s. dollar. what we really have in re dahlia does a lot of research, what everything about him and china he does a lot of mechanical research. in order to keep spending this amount of money fiscally in doing the deficits and paying the interest on the debt you have to people wanting to buyer bonds in of all the foreigners dump our bonds and people lose money in bonds and you don't have people that are going to buy the bonds or the reason people buy the bonds is because the u.s. dollar is a reserve currency if that comes into question because the get critical mass of alliance then that could be a problem in america like that turned into what the balance sheet looks like which is becoming a third world country. charles: we don't have a lot of time but i want to share opportunities in terms of by the dips. you said you have to be engaged in this market until we go off the cliff maybe will have something to cushion the blow

energy tech except apple and tesla and commodities, the commodity thing is really intriguing to me, what is driving the move. >> is more money in the system and were spending in the system and is the broadening out and sort of reallocating out of the magnificent seven. the magnificent seven is starting to disperse because of course we are out of our ski in the a.i. narrative really works unless we get a credit situation so people are starting to diversify out of that. we have to see during earnings season if the valuation continue to be justified but as they get more stretched more risk and holding those position. charles: you've always been one of the smartest people i know i'm glad you came to talk. some of these guys are hyperbolic but we have to listen to what they're saying because they think they're looking longer-term than the rest of us which is why they have been more successful than the rest of us and that's what you have been as well. see you again real soon. a lot of people in the financial media continue to pound away at the nation or the notion that

there are hard times justified not a reality in more and more people are beginning to really buckle, americans alike forget about what you're saying, i saw a great chart that might've explained why economist and regular folks see things different leawood comes to inflation, they're looking at year-over-year, inflation is down for the year but of course as regular people we look at a cumulative. the blue line is what americans are looking at a yellow line is what everyone else is looking. the blue line is what we call real life. real life is a survey the most common sacrifice of people are making to afford the american dream of homeownership almost 35% fewer vacations, 22% of skipping meals, 21% of working men visible hours. we dipping into retirement funds in anything that we can do. economists are saying the current situation could stay this way forever.

they come on the show all the time brilliant people but are they kidding me, local governments cannot create 70000 jobs a month, record credit card debt at record interest-rate cannot go on forever. you just heard francis and stacy. according to john byrnes which is probably one of the best out there, people are optimistic about the future would it comes to personal finance for this main reason. over the next 12 months people 22% want to pay off the debt, they're not to keep buying on the credit card and pay off debt, it does not work. it's time with the blowing of smoke in the gas lighting to stop, we need to be honest and folks that are position to make a change to affect change for the average person out there, people are hurting and it's time to acknowledge that maybe we can get policy that looks at them the way that liz claman does with care in understanding. >> you have 18 minutes to get to cleveland. >> i'll call you from there. liz: quick