assault of industries like energy and rule of law. i think they will come along. fund-raisers like that are a demonstration of that, in addition to the low dollar numbers trump raises which he is better than anybody at. brian: he has a bunker, he does impressions, pete hegseth. >> you know it. see you guys. taylor: quick check on your money as we close in on the 2:00 p.m. hour. stocks in the green with the s&p 500 and the nasdaq on track for a second positive day in a row and the dow on pace to snap a three-day losing streak. what really stands out to me, guys, trying to close in on record highs, 5254 is that for the s&p 500. we're trying to get there we're getting close, jackie. jackie: feels like a correction fakeout. a small pullback. people are getting back in. i know someone who would know more about that than us, charles payne now. charles: thank you very much. we'll go through all of that. appreciate it. good afternoon, i'm charles payne this is

"making money." breaking right now stocks are still basking in the powell love, the day after the fed chair came to the rescue but probably making his own job, his real job harder. stephanie pomboy on the real state of the economy and the real mess the fed is making. she is one of the best strategists on the street. from bank of america. she raised her target on the market to 5400. said there could be bumps in the road. apple is ditching evs looking to home robots as the next big thing. if you think that is buy signal or sell signal? if you think the gordian knot, this lima crunch, it is not a breakfast cereal. barry knapp lace all that out. wall street and the game of illusion. that and much more on "making money" ♪. charles: so we had the really tense, you can almost say

non-that lant session, at least the way it looked at the close. it played out on the bond market more so than equities. remember the adp jobs number came out it was a little stronger than everyone expected and nudged bonds higher toward the key breakout point, not the kind of breakout you like right? when that happened they felt the rate cut could be in jeopardy. of course we got ism services. it did come in as well as expected, even with the nuance of the report, prices paid, growth there slowed considerably. maybe the rate market is back on. the market started going done. there was tension. you could feel it all day long. the anxiety as powell started to speak. well he put everyone at ease. bond yields came down, the stock market rallied. listen still feels sluggish today, right? we got a little bit of spillover this morning. we're down off the highs earlier this morning. there is a lot of anxiety, right? so goldman sort of reminded

everyone, listen, don't worry about it, this is typical because the market coming into april we typically always sort of go down this week and next week because of tax day. even the seasonality thing with elections, right? even during elections you get the same sort of thing, the same sort of pullback. here is the interesting thing. golly, look at this market. this is run amok. this is where we are right now. this is really, really stuff that has people kind of concerned because maybe we're just due. right now the buy on dips folks keep us afloat and cheerleaders but we haven't had a 2% correction. investors who hopped on the train early have been rocking and rolling every night and partying every day. eastern rock stars, at some point decide to cash out. look what i saw this morning, kiss is selling the catalog for $300 million. do you stay on the rocket can ride or kiss the it good bi?

we have savita subramanian. thank you very much for being here. i'm glad you made it. >> me too. charles: let's talk about this. you had a target of 5000. >> yep, november. charles: coming into the year you were at the top. you were one of the more bullish strategists out there. >> yeah. charles: and of course you just raised it. these are some of the reasons. you said sentiment is improving but in your mind euphoric just yet. >> not euphoric. charles: okay. positioning in high beta cyclicals, bearish extremes. >> yep. charles: market breadth is improving. >> yep. charles: equity premiums could go lower. >> that's right, that's right. this is all bullish actually. i still feel very constructive on equities. i think what we've seen this year is proof that companies can manage margin risk, they can continue to surprise on earnings expectations. we're starting to sigh some barometers of demand come back. so, you know, we raised our

target to 5400 about a month ago and we're now even closer to that. so i mean the question is, to me it's not what level the market ends at on december 31st but it is more do you buy or sell it right now and i still think you buy the s&p 500 because i still think we're climbing that wall of worry. if you listen to everybody, you know, kind of around you, it is still, what could go wrong. it is economy slowing down too much, oh, no, too much inflation, stagflation. there is no discussion of this sort of -- charles: isn't it ironic? there is a lot of chatter. everyone looking for the next shoe to drop. a lot of comparisons because it is a.i. driven market, back to the tech bubble. >> tech bubble. charles: same token we have not had in over 100 sessions we've been down 2%. >> true. charles: there is a big sort of reservoir of buyers ready to pounce no matter at the smallest pullback. >> you know what i think it is? there is still a lot of cash own

the sidelines. if you look at the average exposure of an individual investor to cash versus stocks and bonds, cash and bond levels are high. stock levels are still relatively low. even if you listen to wall street strategists, so we use the entire wall street community as a contrarian indicator. charles: when you go to lunch with yours peers you leave and do the exact opposite [laughter] >> i think what is interesting as a group wall street strategists are still pretty tepid in terms of their allocations to stocks. charles: i agree. >> i still thinkaway in a wall of worry. charles: even those raising their targets do not believe. do not believe. traditional manufacturing, buy beta and cyclicals we kind of talked about a moment ago. favorite sectors because you want tock selective. >> yes. charles: you like value and energy. >> large caps not necessarily small caps. i think the good news about energy and financials these are

two sectors that were denied capital for the last 15 years and they have learned to survive when higher interest rates, higher cost of capital. these are sectors that benefit from a little bit of inflation. we're seeing real supply discipline for energy companies and, large cap regulated financial companies haven't really lent. they're the last lender around because you've seen a lot of that lending move to regionals and you know, shadow lending. charles: right. >> private equity, private credit. so i think there is a case to be made that large energy and financial companies are higher quality today just because they have been trained on, you're not getting any free money. you're going to fix your problems. since the credit crisis these are two sectors that basically consolidated capacity, gotten discipline around crash return, you know, financials is regulated. charles: right. >> so it can't grow as quickly. charles: that's interesting but by the same token i was looking coming in what they offer, you

know. in terms of savings and credit accounts. they don't have to offer anything. they still get away with that. there is no run on the banks per se. i have got less than a minute to go. let me ask you about this. earlier equity risk premium this is something i want to teach the audience a little bit about. you think it is bullish where it is now, equity risk premium or where it could go from here? >> where we are today a lot of folks say the market is too expensive, the equity risk premium is too low, there is not enough risk priced into the equities. i would argue its at an appropriate level today. a lot of the unknowns that were driving earnings the last 10 or 20 years are behind us. think about it. globalization was a big source of earnings growth. we're done with that and we moved off the global story back to more of a protectionist environment. companies have navigated that really well. we're no longer in free capital mode. we're in the opposite. 5% coast of capital environment.

companies managed that really well. so i think a lot of uncertainty how long free money would last and how long globalization would last is behind us. we're now at a point where companies are focused on efficiency, using a.i. and other themes to get more efficient. >> what is ironic about that, maybe not ironic, it was mark zuckerberg who brought in the fishcy theme, when meta's stock was crashing everyone gave up on it. maybe that 200% rally gave everyone a sort of -- >> look what he did? he initiate ad dividend. charles: amazing, absolutely amazing. thank you very much. my next guest says don't be surprised bonds are outperforming equities this year. when i read that it got my attention. brandywine global portfolio manager jack mcintyre is with us. jack, you know i want to show the audience right now this current drawdown in bonds, this you know the aggregate bond index, we're down 17%. it has been going on for 44

months. so it's like golly, what is going to turn this around? >> so what's going to turn that around is inflation continuing to drift lower. remember in looking at number, 2022 was the bloodbath in bonds and why was it a bloodbath? because we had and inflation regime shift at a time basically everybody owned zero coupon bonds. there was no coupon. that has all changed right now. i say, hey, i'm looking at treasurys, i'm not pounding the table saying treasurys will go back to where they were pre-covid, but they are a cheap insurance policy against something bad happening. i get it. i'm not saying equities scale roll over to have a 20% correction tomorrow but meanwhile that soft landing which is big time consensus, might, might turn into a hard landing and treasury treasurys will do well.

charles: late last year, jim grant i had him on the show we could be in secular bear market, 40 year bear market on bonds. first i thought he is curmudgeon, he is a nice guy, it is hard to argue so far. every expert said you buy bonds they're oversold still they're not really doing what we thought they would be doing at this point. >> so i say, again, my mindset is we're going to eastern the coupon. going back to that secular bear market in bonds but remember voice taking a huge amount of death to get to growth profile at this point. you look at federal debt as rates move higher, we know more money has to shift towards the interest debt or servicing that interest component of the budget. i don't, you know, talking about a.i., i think ultimately that is going to enhance productivity it will put downward pressure on inflation, so no, i'm not in that start of new start of secular bear market in bondses. charles: before you go, speaking

of a.i., i read you're looking for tech to correct, is it pullback or correct, if that is the case where would equity investors look to be positioned? >> my mind set at some point we're going to start to transition where the users of a.i. get more rewarded than the producers. you know, i'm a value guy. i think value equities are outside the u.s., so i would kind of start to nibble and expand your sort of investment horizon to include international equities. >> jack, wishing we had more time but that's great stuff. thank you very much, my friend. appreciate it. >> thanks. charles: all right, folks if you listen to my next guest last february you would have bought meta you would have been up only 190%. make it up to yourself. grab a pen and pad right now. because eva ados is on deck. she has a few more ideas you want to hear after this. ♪.

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hi, i'm janice, and i lost 172 pounds on golo. when i was a teenager i had some severe trauma in my life and i turned to food for comfort. i had a doctor tell me that if i didn't change my life, i wasn't gonna live much longer. once i saw golo was working, i felt this rush,

i just had to keep going. a lot of people think no pain no gain, but with golo it is so easy. my life is so much different now that i've lost all this weight. when i look in the mirror i don't even recognize myself. not all caitlin clarks are the same. caitlin clark. city planner. just like not all internet providers are the same. don't settle. you want fast. get fast. you want reliable. get reliable. you want powerful. get powerful. get real deal speed, reliability and power with xfinity. she shoots from here? that's kinda my thing. charles: all right, folks, my next guest has been own fire. the index is up 24%

year-to-date. give you context, russell 1000, this is growth, up just 11%. now she is making major moves. let's bring in entrepreneur shares ceo eva ados. welcome to the show. congratulations, you're crushing it, you're crushing it but shifting a little bit, right? >> yes. charles: based on cpi, the federal reserve, you anticipate some different changes. before we get what you're shifting to what is it about this data that is making you want to be preemptive here? >> two of the last cip ratings came up .3, .4. the annual inflation rate is now above the 2% target rate. that is concerning to us. we have sticky housing prices, energy costs are coming up. food away from home is coming up. we're concerned about inflation. we think rates will push further in toward the end of year. we're looking into more profitable entities. cash flow, profitability, shorter duration, not edges

extremely high growth and being conservative. charles: i love the fact you're looking at the data and not making excuses. really, i hate to say it, a lot of folks on the street do that. they will have the thesis and stick to it, when the data goes against their thesis, doesn't matter, it is an excuse. it gets cold in january, that kind of weird stuff. you're shifting toward, you want companies that are more profitable that have cash flow. you want steady cash flow. >> yes. charles: shorter duration what does that mean? >> shorter durr railings, like the long-term assets which is usually ultrahigh growth equities we avoid this at that moment. we still hold, you know, the companies that we believe have a great future but we won't had to that. charles: you have core long-term holdings you will ride through these waves, right? >> but we entered very early. so it doesn't really concern us. charles: right. >> right now if we would buy or go to shorter duration assets. charles: we had savita subramanian on. she likes large cap names. you like large cap. non-megacap.

>> northern megacap. "magnificent seven" you know me, i love nvidia, been in it since a five dollar stock. we've favor other companies like meta, that would be our preferred megacap. charles: i want to share with ideas, with us but i want to give you a shoutout. this goes back to february of last year. gave us 14 ideas. 12th 12 are up. this is 66%, 64%, we talked meta, up 191%. real quick so i get to the ones that you like now. these names that are down slightly, less single digits, hold on oracle and palantir? >> oracle will be one of shorter duration, not ultrahigh growth. steady, slow and steady companies with great cash flow we would favor in this market. charles: by the way a net, i have subscribers, i love it as well. stick with meta. >> yes. charles: spotify, i will ask you a trivia question, how many artists made a million dollars

on spotify last year? >> are you one of them? charles: [laughter] i sing great in the shower. 1250, that blew my mind a million dollars. everyone is gettings on the spotify chain. i have subscribers in it as well. why do you like it? >> i like it for the same reasons you like it. revenues all-time high. 30% revenue growth. you know that yesterday they increased their subscription plan one or two dollars a month. that wail give a healthy boost to their revenues. charles: right. >> they have great margins. eb margins are 5%. they're cutting costs impressive, 4.5%. a great company. i think market they will become more consistently profitable. charles: i would only add a caveat. it may be more volatile than other stocks. since they changed the symbol the stock keeps going up. i have got 30 seconds, why do you like this one. >> it was fleet corps to your

point. charles: right. >> we like it because of their margins. eb margin 22% of the industry average. they're improving profits by 100 million a year. it is a great company in this market. charles: before i let you go, apple said you know what? we may mess around with the next big thing, home robots, are you in. >> no. charles: sounds desperate, they would be in evs, never mind. now they're going to do robots. >> never works, when the company becomes bureaucratic, they have the arrogance to do anything but they really can't. there are smaller companies that can compete to get market share. i think it will be another ev case here. nice to see you. charles: great work. really killing it. folks, don't forget town hall is coming up. "unbreakable investor," april 24th, 2:00 p.m. eastern. you can join live here in studio. the last two, standing room only. we rocked. it will be so much fun.

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♪. charles: so the markets picking up a little bit from yesterday, right? there is a lot lurking beneath the surface particularly when it comes to jay powell. gerri willis will dive a little bit deeper on that and the banking sector. >> reporter: banking sector, hi, charles. that doesn't mean there is a, not a lot of unanswered questions and issues. bank stocks rallied. kgb is off the high point of 2022 as you can see here. bank lending growth is slowing, boom. this is especially tough for small businesses. 65% need loans to meet operating expenses. you see it right here. in other words auto loanses have zoomed. in the immortal words of oprah,

you get a car, you get a car. charles: this is mixed bag for region has, u.s. large cap bank analyst erika najarian. great seeing you. >> good seeing you. charles: so you have i'd some major changes in your coverage here. what's, are you trying to get ahead of something? what peace going on with you and this coverage because you've made some big moves? >> yeah, so it's kind of exactly what gerri said. you had a broadening out of the market rally and so these banks, particularly the money center banks, have gone up on multiple expansion but activity levels have been pretty slow so far to start the year. and so the revision froze less rate from less rate cuts are impactful with growth pretty slow in the first half. charles: what about the federal reserve and where rates may go from here? is that part of your modeling?

>> this three from six to what we had the at beginning of the year. with the good economic data we are continuing to get, june might be 50, 50, in terms of a cut. june may be all we get, might not enough to reverse deposit trends and pump out loan demand. charles: was that based on just valuation other is there something a little bit more sinister at hand? >> no, it is honestly more valuation based. for b-of-a, i think the stock is going to run out of gas. very simple the stock is in the high 30s. in the next two years i don't think they will make more than the low threes. hard to argue multiple expansion for banks. fifth third levels gerri talked about will make them miss this year and comerica.

charles: i had like, middling success with it. >> honestly it is not really working right now. there is sort of a direct correlation between pe around size. so a lot of institutional investors are hiding out in high quality which are the regional banks, i'm sorry, the money center banks. >> money center banks, right, and are holding up pretty well. you have some buy ratings on some regional banks. >> yep. charles: before i get to them, i have to give you a shoutout. this year you mentioned 17 banks long on the show. 16 are up. i wanted to thank you on behalf of the audience. you know the name of the she, right? >> yeah. "making money." charles: keybanc, cfg and east/west bank, talk to us about these? >> yeah, so keycorp essentially had you know, made poor decisions in terms of the interest rate environment. so a lot of those poor decisions in terms of these out of the money swaps are going to start rolling off at the end of the year. so their net interest income is

really going to trajectory higher. for citizens, it is a good story. they have a lot of excess capital. you know what they did? they airlifted 150 people from first republic. they're starting a cool little private bank that separating the results in the first quarter. east/west is a nice niche chinese american bank out of california where we always feel like the commercial real estate trends are very understated but they have been a very conservative lender throughout their history. we think they will outperform in both the net interest expectations and also on buyback. charles: by the way if you know anyone at citizens. they took over my bank i had my mortgage. eye, yi, yi, they send me a bill every day. these guys are rough. they scooped up all the money i had laying around. from an investment point of view as a customer, ask them to be cool a little bit. i will pay the mortgage. >> got it. >> i appreciate it. left east go back to

gerri willis. >> reporter: that is a great conversation. charles, you mentioned jay powell coming to the rescue at the top of the show, right? while wall street cheered there was some hand-wringing over some of the fed chair's observations. i will give you the jay powell quote and let the data give the rebuttal. powell said monetary policy is tight, but look at this, financial conditions are looser now than before they were when the fed started hiking rates. powell said this, too soon, it is too soon to say if recent inflation data is more than a bump. look, this couldn't be clearer, friends, inflation data has been going up since october. powell also said inflation wasn't strictly from demand overheating but look at the government goosing demand from the fed printing other central banks. here is the other, this is us. this is the rest of the world. we are definitely outprinting them. and the last one, powell says i do think monetary poll is working. however even darden restaurants is seeing lower income. diners stay at home. they're saying, hey, we're

seeing consumer behavior shifts. that's wall street ease, oops, something is going wrong. charles, back to you. charles: i read that, gerri, families at 150,000 eating at longhorn steakhouse. if you make less than 75,000, you can't afford anymore. that is inflation, gerri, that's inflation. >> that's right, that's right. >> thanks a lot, with me macro mavens founder, president, stephanie pomboy. i want to stick about the restaurant thing. you tweeted about restaurant sales and traffic. really you were pretty, you couldn't believe the data is pretty ugly to the downside? >> yeah, absolutely. it has been stunning to me because i highlighted this in january when the number, it was early february that the january report came out and it reflected the weakest traffic and sales at restaurants since doors were closed during the covid shutdowns. in other words, they did the same level of business that they did when they had no business. so that was really stunning to

me and i expected fully we'd see a pretty smart rebound in february but we didn't. we saw just this feeble little blip up. we're still deep in recession territory. as you and gerri just highlighted, clear increased anecdotes that the restaurant business is coming under real pressure which isn't surprising. >> yeah. >> we've sheen, we talked about this before, two years where we've had zero growth in unit sales for retail sales, real retail sales have gone nowhere for two years and everyone is blowing that off saying yeah they're not buying goods, they're out eating out at restaurants an enjoying experiences. looks like that shoe may have dropped as well. i have this the consumer is sending real warning signals. >> i think so too. i feel like everyone sig norring them but you. i'm glad you're on to talk about it. in your most recent note, you talk about masters of illusion.

everyone is talking about how strong the dollar is. the dollar index is up but it is really down. explain that for the audience. >> yeah, there is, the dollar index for people who are sitting there looking at their bloomberg screens is up 3% or so so far this year. that is scorchingly strong start to the year for the dollar. however, that's just its performance relative to other paper currencies around the world that are all tied to nothing. the fact is that all those currencies are going down just at varying rates of speed against the only currency that cannot be debased which is gold. gold is up over 8% so far this year. so in dollar terms. >> right. >> so what that is telling you, in real terms the dollar, it has lost 8% of its value while people who myopically focus on the dxy index are cheering how strong the dollar is. it is the ultimate irony. so it is another illusion that

is very dangerous to buy into. charles: right. i got less than a minute to go. earlier in the week i had danielle dimartino booth and i asked her whether she thought america could be hurling toward banana republic status in part because of the avalanche of treasury bills being issued, by the way vis-a-vis gold versus treasurys you see on the screen there, do you think that is an accurate statement? >> oh, absolutely. i mean i think we've been headed this way for a long time. that chart that you showed prior of dwindling share of dollars being held by foreign central banks reflects that they have been steadily diversing away from the dollar because they see the writing on the wall that u.s. investors seem blind to. i mean we have this hubris that the u.s. dollar is entitled to be the world's reserve currency forever and we can abuse, if i may use the phrase, the exorbitant privilege of that by running up obscene deficits and printing out way out of them,

which is ultimately what gold is signaling. charles: right. >> gold figured out the treasury dynamics are absolutely untenable. we can't run three trillion dollar deficits and have no ostensible source of financing from the rest of the world without the fed stepping in and buying that issuance. charles: right. >> and that is what gold is signaling and why it parted company from everything else. charles: stephanie, i have to hop, sorry i got to hop, do you think jay powell has ever eaten at a longhorn steakhouse? >> i bet not. but i will eat there with you, charles, anytime. charles: i'm down. they don't have any in new york city. i have to take you out to jersey. see you soon. >> sounds great. charles: forget a dilemma, folks. have you ever heard of a quad dilemma? i heard about it for a the first time today. barry knapp will tell us what is happening. it sounds spooky as hell. that is next.

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once i saw golo was working, i felt this rush, i just had to keep going. a lot of people think no pain no gain, but with golo it is so easy. when i look in the mirror, i don't even recognize myself. golo really works. you're probably not easily persuaded to switch mobile providers for your business. but what if we told you it's possible that comcast business mobile can save you up to 75% a year on your wireless bill versus the big three carriers? you can get two unlimited lines for just $30 each a month. all on the most reliable 5g mobile network—nationwide. wireless that works for you. for a limited time, ask how to save up to $830 off an eligible 5g phone when you switch to comcast business mobile. don't wait! call, click or visit an xfinity store today. ♪. charles: all right, folks, listen, we've all had problems. we have problems every day and sometimes we even have little dem mass.

trfrilemmas, i'm not sure but quad doctor lemmas, those are rare, my next guest says we're dealing with the quad dril. emma crunch. i never heard the word before i thought you made it up. it is amazing. what am i afraid offer? >> i was thinking 2024s, quad dilemma popped up in my head. i checked it on google, it is a word. we have all this discussion, throughout our program talked about sabita and others pressure on small caps and small banks. parts of the system are dealing with tight monetary policy. any entity like small banks or people that born row from small banks, small businesses, real

estate investors, even the federal government for that matter, poll is really tight. fiscal policy is unprecedentedly loose. we have never run 7% budget deficits during an expansion before but for those portions of the economy that are dealing with that deeply, deeply inverted yield curve and it has only been this deeply inverted three other times, '73, '79 and 80, that is the right one to think about, the fed needs to cut the policy rate to 4% to disinvert the curve, take all that pressure off small banks, reopen the bank lending channel and do it in a way that doesn't cause anymore damage to their bank balance sheets and all their securities holdings and all the real estate assets they own as much lower yield levels. there is your second four. getting the policy rate down to four. keeping the 10-year note in the vicinity of four and in order to get that we need the unemployment rate to go above

four and we need average hourly earnings and wages broadly to drop below four and that needs to happen in fairly short order. powell made it very clear they have a skewed, you know, reaction function relative to the labor market. they're no so worried about strong gains but if the labor market starts to deteriorate, they will start cutting to four. this is what makes tomorrow's number so pivotal for the outlook for the second quarter. if we don't get weak numbers, the treasury market is going to come back under pressure like at the beginning of last week and we could get very much a repeat of what happened from august through last october where tens go back to five, and we get a broader risk-off event. if we do get the weaker labor market data i suspect we'll get concerned about growth like miss pomboy was pointing out with respect to restaurant sales and all but we're standing right on the precipice of one of those two scenarios. charles: barry, i have got less than a minute to go, i love the way you explained it. i understand everything you're

saying but you may, you sort of went back and you said 1980 was the year to look at. 1980, we're talking volcker, we're talking about really, you know, a steadier hand. you know, we didn't hear talk about hey, we're going to be cutting soon. some would argue if we're going back, in 1980 as the template, should the fed be holding higher for longer even considering more rate hikes? >> well the reason i pointed to 1980 was, the volcker deep curve inversion essentially disintermediated the entire savings and loan and thrift industry which was 80% of the supply of mortgage, residential credit at the time. that opened the door for securitization and they were being disintermediated by money funds on the deposit side. charles: right. >> they never recovered. so we're in the same polls now with small regional banks that the longer this persists, and i'm not saying one of the fed's doing the right thing because i'm pretty hawkish on inflation.

i don't really think we're going back to two, but to get the banking system right-sized because of the curve the fed really does need to go to four. so it's a real quadrilemma. charles: we got all four of the fours. barry, great stuff. i always learn every time you're on the show but you took me to a whole new level this time. thanks a lot. i thank you on behalf of the audience as well. >> wore a tie for you today, charles. charles: you got a haircut. i see everything, my man. market momentum has gone vertical. usually that's a bad thing. shana sissell here whether you should continue to ride the wave or hop off before it's too late. ♪. ameritrade is now part of schwab. bringing you an elevated experience, tailor-made for trader minds.

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in ft yesterday about the momentum trade. they say it's gone vertical. wall street calls this kind of movement when it goes straight up like this, they call it going parabolic. it was a cautionary piece that reminded investors that these things, when they go up and they hit a certain point, they fizzle like a roman candle and disappear, right? the reversal can be really harsh. they pointed to 2009 when we had a 73% drawdown, 1932 it was 90%. we've had some smaller ones since then. but here's the thing, if we look a little bit further if out, look where the momentum trade is coming from. you could argue back here in 2000, it's actually still maybe long-term charts say maybe on the verge of breaking out. so should you be selling it here? maybe you should be buying it right here. want to bring in one of our favorite guests on these kind of things, shane that sis el. if shane that, i mean, here's the dilemma, do you ride this wave or get off? >> i'm riding thisaway. this wave. i think that this was a chart

victim kind of thing as you just point out if you have the shorter chart, it looks really scary. but with when you blow it out like you just did, look at 2009. look how much higher the momentum number is versus where it is today. i think we have a lot of room left to reason. the economy's growing really well. there's no reason for anyone to believe right now, at least in my opinion, that we can't go higher. charles: right. and, by the way, we're going to share with the audience some of the positives that you see for the momentum trade. you just talked about the equity performance, been very strong, 'em -- extremely strong. an object in motion, takes a lot to change it. i suspect you think earnings are going to get better as the year goes on, right in. >> i do. and, as a matter of fact, you know, if you think about what powell's comments were yesterday, he did indicate that he does not see a rate cut in the future which is an indication that the economy is doing really well, right? if because if it wasn't, if

there was any sign, any sign whatsoever that things were starting to weaken, i guarantee you the fed would cut. their looking for an excuse -- their looking for an -- they're looking for an excuse to cut. and we're doing so well. earnings have been very strong. the consumer sentiment has been, you know, very good. and so all of these things have been quite positive. people have jobs, they're spending money. companies have been preparing for the recession that that never came. for the better part of two years, their balance sheets are strong, and there's no reason to believe that this momentum cannot continue, at least not through the end of the year. if you think about it, if a recession is going to come in 2024, we'll see signs of it between now and june. charles: right. >> if we don't, there's no chance of a recession in 2024. charles: i've got some stocks here, i've got a minute to go, so we won't have time to go over all of them. for the folk ifs listening on radio show is -- though, it's fang, nvidia, mvs and marvell.

fang, is this because you want exposure to oil breaking out? >> i do. and fang is a particularly interesting name. they do really well. they can get really good very gins at very low prices for oil -- margins. they have a lot of opportunity the for exploration, and they have done a really good job with acquisition. they're trading at a very low multiple with a great dividend, so that's a stock i really like. vertex pharmaceutical, come on my scream all the time. it's very -- screen all the time. it's very volatile, i don't know what they do. >> so they have a really great cystic fibrosis group of drugs, and they really don't have any competitors in that space, and it's really growing. they have some really great drugs in that space, some good oncology drugs, but it's the really their cysticfy if bro sis drugs that drive their earnings, and hay don't have competitors in that space. it's a biotech company, hence

the volatility. but it does have kind of a stengelhold on that market. -- stranglehold. chart charles novartis and marvell. love when we get those strong answers, no equivocation there. talk to you again soon. folks, i want to take a few seconds just to give you my thoughts on the job market and the federal reserve. first, you know, listen, i've been talking about this, and more and more people are talking about government data in general with, losing a ton of credibility. not enough folks are taking these surveys, you know, and then, of course, there's always a seasonality adjustment, a birth-death adjustment. there's all kinds of shenanigans, right, and i think a lot of folks don't believe anytime. e also think wall street, let's be honest, has been sort of complicit, and i'm going to borrow a phrase from earlier in the show, this illusion, few -- if you will. the consensus is so crazy, right? this is a setup. we actually had this on the show yesterday, the surprises out there.

when something beats the street. something beating the street doesn't mean it's the good news. still, they give you really low consensus on these numbers, and then when hay come out better, all the a talking heads on tv break out the pom-poms. that a said though, it's going to be harder to pull this off. in fact, there are already signs that mid and large businesses looking at this chart right here, you see this right there? they're back to their pre-pandemic job openings, right? that means they don't have a lot of demand. we know government's been hiring a lot of folks and then, of course, that leaves small businesses. and they don't have the deep pockets. you may see wages start to come down a little bit. also the market will cheer if that is the case, let's say we get a negative if surprise tomorrow. maybe powell goes in to work and he starts to cut rates. remember, this is the second longest pause on record. the good thing is 319 days, 167 days, we've seen the market up pretty nicely on these. 22%, 19%. so it's good because when they

have to cut fast, that that means the economy is many trouble, so this won't be too bad. the bottom line here is that the data is specious, the commentary will be overdone no matter what, and the pom-poms will come out. you have to stay laser focused with your own -- what i've been saying on the show -- with your own portfolio. you've got to stay in the market, but you have to be select i have, and you have to be somewhat nimble -- selective and nimble. i think that's going to continue to be the case. we talked a lot this show about rotation. rotation from one sector to another sector. it's easy to chase, and it's not too bad with if you chase at the right time, but right now is a real pivotal time, folks, particularly tomorrow. pay close attention to the jobs report. we've got your back. in the meantime, this last hour of trading should be intense, but you've got the right person to guide you through it. liz claman,s over to you. liz: yeah. we do need to guide people through what is going on right now. session lows for both the s&p and the nasdaq, the russell as