and hope they're going to be okay. that is not the way the world works. it -- i saw this in real time. look it, here is where it worked. we had a pretty good trade deal with japan that lowered barriers. we had a pretty good trade deal with south korea. they are really tough negotiator. taylor: we know how it is done. larry -- >> we couldn't get to first base with europe. china's mixed bag. you will -- taylor: you're great, i will not redo the riot act. we have to cut you off. >> bff, china is not our bff. taylor: we are cutting larry off because we missed a birthday, belated birthday on monday was brian. you were out. we love having you here. we don't have cake but, we have very hot pizza, right offset to celebrate you. charles maine is up. we'll have pizza. charles: bring me a slice over, see you a little later.

bring me a slice. good afternoon, everyone, i'm charles payne, this is "making money." breaking now, jay powell on the defensive. he spoke two hours ago as the fed deals with so many conflicting economic trends and there are concerns with the fed being too political. wait until you hear what powell had to say about that. learn the difference between hard and soft data, when will investors value value stocks? one year ago she gave you two stocks up 220% and 175%, one year ago today. find out where sarah kunst is buying right now. gen-z says they need 1.6 mil to retire in style. the good news they started early. the bad news, they ain't making much traction. here is the question, how much do you need to retire comfortably and tweet me @cvpayne. you don't want to hear my take on the wall street jobs report no matter what the print is on

monday. all that and. more on "making money" ♪ charles: there has been a hesitant start to the quarter. this is monster first quarter. let's look at the first quarter one more time, put it in perspective. large cap u.s. stocks up almost 11%. commodities, all kinds of things that went very, very well. but here is what did not do well, fixed income, bonds down defend for the first quarter. real estate investment trusts. that cre thing still a little iffy there. those are the two laggards. market did well in the quarter. let's get a little bit more nuance because in the last part of that, the last part of that quarter, the last month something interesting happened. it wasn't the fab four. fab seven, fab four, fab 2, whatever you call, they kind of faded away. what benefited was value, value overgrowth. this is a chart that shows growth overvalue. when it is down here, that means value outperformed. it outperformed very, very

nicely. here is the thing, value performing nicely, not getting wall street interested at all. this is long only funds right? so they have to be long the market. they're always buying something. right now this is, one way of looking at value based on p-e ratios. they are 56% less underweight versus momentum. so value funds, i'm telling you right now they are still chasing, chasing, chasing. another way to check out value is some sectors. two sectors, banks and energy. they're considered to be value. significantly, significantly underexposed by long-only fund the. remember we've seen especially hienergy stocks coming on. seems like the main game in town still, is waiting to buy the dip. everyone wants to buy the dip. in fact here we go. right now citigroup saying, everyone wants to buy the dip. they have one caveat though. they said at this time around, if you look where people are buying the futures and things like that, the bullish flows are confined to the s&p 500, not the

nasdaq 100. so maybe, just maybe, this time the dip means not buying the mag-7. joining me now slatestone wealth chief market strategist kenny polcari. kenny, right now the forward p-e is pretty high. i want to show the folks where market is right now, forward p-e ratio, it is pretty high. it has made a big move. you've been looking for a dip. so my question to you, how big would the dip have to be because i know you don't like buying stocks at this level? >> no, listen, i'm wanting to see a bigger dip, i want to see a six, seven, 8% dip. i just don't think we'll get there. every time the market backs up 3%, oh, here is the dip, buy the dip and it never gets a chance to back off. you have you have to look at individual names correcting versus the broader market. that is kind of where i'm looking. am i chasing, am i chasing names on the upside?

no, i wait until they pull back. names like apple down 15%. charles: right. >> that is a stock that you know, it is a core name of the portfolio. so you buy stuff like that individually and that is kind of what you want to look for. charles: i want to look at some individual ideas. i want to get before that. you had two narratives coming into this year. last year, i always remind folks this rally was sparked on the notion of seven rate cuts, right? we've whittled that down to three rate cuts. still the rally hasn't missed a beat. now the narrative hey, the economy is strong. from you, from your perspective, would you rather see the market rally on weak data, that means more accommodative fed or stronger data, that means maybe the fed stays higher for longer but you do have the organic growth that can power the bottom line? >> your second argument is what i want to see. i don't want to see the fed cut-rates because what that suggests to your point they're only cutting rates because the economy is weakening. that is not what i want to see. i would rather see a robust

economy and leave rates right the way they are. which by the way are historically normal. the market can function fine with fed funds at 5, 5.25%. that is not an issue. i would rather the economy remain strong, job growth remain strong, the wages remain strong, then the market performs well if we leave interest rates here. charles: you mentioned apple and costco on the list. what is the names you like here? >> costco is the name we own, the firm owns it but costco is in that space as things get more expensive people will be much more sensitive to price, much more sensitive to be able going out getting a bargain. costco backed off 10%. that is another great name. so i think it is just finding a level now where it is going to find support but i think that's the story for costco, that in a ongoing inflationary environment that people are going to

continue to looking for bargains and costco you know is right at the top of that list in terms of merchandising companies that serve that market. charles: all right. kenny, are you buying any of the mag-7 at all or mag eight, mag 4, fab four, whatever they call it these days? you buying any of this today? >> apple, i said yes on the pullback, down 50%, why wouldn't you buy apple. nvidia still trading still trading higher, not yet. it has to pullbacks more for me. microsoft, not yet. names significantly, and these mag-7 names or the tech names if they're correcting better than 10% you you have to start to look at them for sure. charles: i think so. that is what the segment is b everyone with deep pockets ready to dump on any dip. kenny, last word to you. >> right, that's the point, that's the point, we never get the dip because doesn't 3% we have to get in. charles: these days, down half a percent. let me jump in this bad boy.

kenny, thanks a lot. >> exactly. >> bring in wells fargo advisors svp mark smith. mark, you were big on the mag-7 names most of last year, beginning of this year. one thing we do see it was all about mag-7, they deserved it. the earnings for these names were absolutely phenomenal. as we go you there rest of the year, towards the end. year the other 493 stocks will outperform at least from an earnings perspective. does that mean you should makeshifts in your portfolio? >> i think so. if you look at the mag-7 they're up 150%, 300%, some of them the last two years. if you were lucky to have these stocks over the last 24 months absolutely you should look to start to diversifying. at beginning of this year, i told folks should start looking at the financials, one of the top performing sectors in the u.s. you have also got energy. these are names not tech. charles: i want to get more granular, i read your note, the last few trading sessions should be a wake-up call, that wake cup call should be one word,

diversify, diversify, diversify. let's talk about that a little bit. are you getting pushback on that? >> no. charles: really? >> many of my clients, we're up big, pigs don't want to get slaughtered right? if you don't sell at these levels you're risking not capturing the gains you had over last 24 months. charles: ringing the register is fun. >> ringing the register is very fun. have to pay the taxman. at but at the end of the day you have to pay the taxman. many clients are saying where do we go after the mag-7? financials are very promising. >> i will talk about financials in a minute. i also know you like gold. gold making a huge breakout, this is a big time breakout. i'm hearing 3,000. are you putting a target on there or are you just comfortable it has got momentum and you like the rick reward? >> i think gold is great to be in every diversified portfolio for the track record goes back to jesus. look at bitcoin the last 20 years, you like bitcoin did, why

wouldn't you own gld as well? a lot of folks, a lot of talk around bitcoin, why not hold bgld. in any portfolio you have to have hard assets. >> you talked about financials. i pulled up the financials up here. this is nice breakout. making a distinctin between financials names. jackie: insurance companies, regional banks or xlf. >> you have to go with the large u.s. banks because there are some ways they make money, okay? from wealth management to investment banking. money they make from your cashing every single day. credit cards, interest rates i don't know if you checked that out 20% plus. banks make money in all the environments. i like the large money center banks. charles: this is sew intriguing. you will not make 11% every quarter, right? are you down here at this end, bonds? i have folks have been coming on over a year saying bond, bonds. they are getting hit pretty good. they have not rebounded yet.

yields up a little bit, real estate investment trust the, are you looking for this deep opportunity fore. >> if you're on fixed income you need bonds. it has been hard over the last few years, if you're a retired person you want to clip a coupon every single month, bonds is the place to be. not all bonds are doing poorly. corporate debt and preferred securities financials they're doing well. i wouldn't paint a broadbrush over the fixed income market at all. charles: real estate investment trusts? >> i'm not touching reits for a number of different reasons. commercial is a huge part of many reits. i don't want to be near that space. i don't care what they tell me. >> my man. thank you very much. stay right there. folks i have a question for you, how much do you need to retire comfortably? gen-z has 22 grand saved up, all they need is another 1.5 million, 800,000? high net worth folks they may be

unrealistic as well. i put it on twitter, i like to get from you, what do you think is more realistic the goals of the gen-z group or the high net worth folks who may want too much money? we'll get into all of this with taylor riggs. she is next. ♪. (vo) what does it mean to be rich? maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number... and more about discovering magic. rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. and also send them away. rich is living life your way. and having someone who can help you get there. the key to being rich is knowing what counts. hello, ghostbusters. it's doug. we help people customize and save hundreds on car insurance

with liberty mutual. we got a bit of a situation. [ metal groans] sure, i can hold. ♪ liberty liberty liberty liberty ♪ in theaters now. (♪) is bad debt holding you back? ♪ the only limit is the sky ♪

♪ it's our time ♪ ♪ you don't want to miss it (just a little bit louder) ♪ ♪ it's our time ♪ ♪ you don't want to miss it ♪ ♪ it's your moment in the spotlight ♪ all your ambitions. all in one app. low fixed rates. borrow up to $100k. no fees required. sofi. get your money right®.

her uncle's unhappy. i'm sensing an underlying issue. it's t-mobile. it started when we tried to get him under a new plan. but they they unexpectedly unraveled their “price lock” guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the “un-carrier”. you sing about “price lock” on those commercials. “the price lock, the price lock...” so, if you could change the price, change the name! it's not a lock, i know a lock. so how can we undo the damage? we could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity.

their connection is unreal. and we could all un-experience this whole session. okay, that's uncalled for. ♪. charles: all right, folks it's a big election year. we always know that the economy is one of the top, if not top issue but check this out, this is really crazy. the change that's happened about who says the economy is their top issue, look at this, young folks, young voters, 18 to 29, before in the last election only 11%. almost half say that right now because they know it is very expensive to live. they also know it is very expensive to retire. americans actually overall believe they need $1.46 million to retire comfortably. this is northwest mutual's annual planning study. that is up 54% from just 2020. unfortunately look at that little blue bar. we have only average of 88,000 saved up.

let's break it down a little bit differently. i want to look at different generations for you. gen-z they need 1.86 million. they have only 22,000 saved. give them props, because they saved in 22 but boomers began at 37 years old. everyone is million miles away from their target. especially high net worth folks. let's put in "the big money show"'s taylor riggs. we'll put the table up behind us. everyone is far away where they are, gen-z only 22,000, you can scoff at that a bit, but at same token, they started 22 years old. they expect to live to be 100, 30% of them. i'm not even sure 1.6 million is going to be enough. what do you think? >> i don't think so either, there is no way. what stands out to me, boomers think they don't need a million. that speaks to the difference in

psyche. how expensive things are, the affordability crisis. i'm a classic millenial, graduated in '08-09. the world falls apart. there are no jobs. i have no money saved, now coming up through that, you start to see the light at the end of the tunnel, if i'm a millenial, maybe i need million 1/2, million seven to retire. charles: right. >> boomers don't think that. all of this, i think gen-x, millenial, gen-z, affordability crisis they're nowhere saving what they need to be. they can't afford anything. we think we need a lot more than maybe we do. charles: there is something to be said for positive thinking. northwest says high net worth anyone with a million plus. >> okay. charles: right now they think they need 3.9, three million, they will be balling. they might be balling. they have only 172,000. maybe he have this the most unrealistic numbers there? >> i think what really speaks to me is the amount saved. actually now is a good time. remember fed chair bernanke.

we were hating on him. we were saving money but not getting any money for it because rates are zero. now is the time to save. you can put the 5% cd. charles: put a table, northwest says pump should put away monthly to reach their goals. i got to go till, maybe some people the numbers don't look like a lot, for some it does. $382 of if you're 20 years old. in your 20s. >> that's a lot. i was living paycheck to paycheck in my 20s. barely paying rent. i didn't have a car payment. if you have student loans, cars, trying to save for a car? charles: $380 a month is a lot less than 4500 in your 50s. you want to get started sooner rather than later. i want to ask you abouts h the market, we're running outed of time. you always say time in the market not timing the market. average hold in the market is six months? >> no. you're killing me. charles: the market has to play

a big role in this. it can't be 401(k) alone. even the report says the 401(k) alone isn't enough. >> the worry about coming in and out every six to eight months you're not getting compound return f you bought in 2008, you held on to it, we doubled our money. if i'm getting nervous, coming out every eight months, short term capital gains, have i reroad ad lot of my savings? i say that stick with it. charles: in 19 offs, it was eight years. now we're down to six months. folks are watching, this is something you're passionate about, what is the main message? listen we like toe retire comfortably. >> i love the robinhood idea of demock aization of finance. one year in, ride it out. as you said you bought nvidia back in the '90s you would be looking good. charles: you would be looking good. you would already check all the boxes. >> retired. charles: thanks a lot. really appreciate it. check out taylor and the crew on

"the big money show" every weekday at 1:00 p.m. great stuff, taylor. come over more often. >> i'm here. >> coming up economic data out this week. the big one friday, jay powell speaking a couple hours ago. we'll break down how to navigate this because it impacts your portfolio and policy. we'll be right back. ♪ to me, harlem is home. but home is also your body. —last one everyone. i asked myself, why doesn't pilates exist in harlem? so i started my own studio. getting a brick—and—mortar in new york is not easy. chase ink has supported us from studio 1 to studio 3. when you start small you need some big help. and chase ink was that for me. earn up to 5% cash back on business essentials with the chase ink business cash card. make more of what's yours.

we got the house! you did! pods handles the driving. pack at your pace. store your things until you're ready. then we deliver to your new home - across town or across the country. pods, your personal moving and storage team.

♪ looking good, guys! thanks! vacations are better with the credit gods are on your side. i'm coming up! rewards once available to the few are now accessible to the many. earn points for travel with credit one bank, and live large.

charles: folks, we're dealing with a lot of fed speak today. then of course there is the big economic data out on friday but are we looking at the right data and is the fed looking at the right data? lydia hu is here to break it all down. >> reporter: charles, that is a question we're all asking ourselves. we heard jay powell speak two hours ago and fed governor michelle bowman and michael barr. the adp jobs report came in stronger than expected. we're seeing big job changeses, construction, financial services let me get my highlighter on, financial services, manufacturing. but what is standing out to everyone was the big jump we saw in wages. pay is really heating up. pay jumped up 5.1% for people that stayed in their jobe. job changers seeing a jump by 10%. construction adding a ton of jobs, 33,000. 5.7% increase here, the largest

increase just as there is a big bounce in goods producing jobs. charles we also got the ism service survey out today. that came in below consensus but when we peel back the layers here, some of these components are making investors cheer. they're getting excited. employment still in contraction territory but slower which is a good thing. prices still higher but also increasing at a slower pace. we should also mention now, charles, there has been a bifurcation that we're tracking between the hard data and the soft data. hard data as you know, that's the data that the government relies on constructing real gdp. that's down here. soft data up here. this is business and consumer confidence, sentiment surveys and labor statistics. you see more after surprise in the soft data. less of a surprise in the hard data. makes you wonder what we're talking about and getting excited about. one thing out out of control wih the fed policy, is runaway

government spending. bloomberg economics ran the numbers, saving it is dangerously unsustainable. the report took a shot at the congressional budget office, that rosy assumptions of debt to gdp ratio, bloomberg found it could top 185% by 2025. if that doesn't scare you and keep you up at night, charles, frankly, i'm not sure what will. send it back to you. charles: why fomo is so popular. people living for the moment. the yolo, fomo, because those numbers are scary. imagine if they're not even accurate? >> just invite me to the party. charles: all right, lydia. joining me tjm institutional director jim iurio. jim, jay powell earlier today, just a couple hours saying, quote, of course the outlook is still quite uncertain and we face risks on both sides but when he says that it is lip service. we know the focus is on rate cuts but it does worry me. should they be ignoring inflation risk?

>> so, no, they shouldn't be and if you look what jay powell said back on the 20th, he raised his estimates for gdp, he raised estimates for pce inflation, and at the same time said he was still planning to cut 75 basis points in 2024 there is nothing dissuading him. the adp numbers, i will mention all the labor data we've seen over the last six months this is the first one not actually nonsense and looks like it is a fairly decent number, the nfb numbers on friday, they look big on the headline, and it will be all part time and government. it is nonsense. the fact he came out with a speech and said business as usual, that means that the market believes that 2% inflation target is just gone. something significantly higher. i thumbnail it around 2.6 to 3% is what they're going to be happy with this year. if you want proof, that, what i believe is right, just take a look at a gold chart. it has gone absolutely through the roof. >> i will bring gold up in a minute. commodities in general i give

you props. you were there. you were getting positioned before everyone else. first let's start with crude. we know there is seasonality to this. china dust-up to this. are you aggressively buying crude at this point? >> no, but i'm thinking about it. a couple more good up days and good closes i may buy crude and may buy some of the names. when you look at crude there is a couple different things at play. central banks globally gone from tightening to neutral to easing. japan is one outlyer. china we assumed was falling off the precipice. we kind of have brought that back a little bit as well. crude could go a lot higher. funny they sold 300 million-barrels at the spr. buy it back at 70 bucks. missed that trade. turns out the government is not a good as trader as they said they are. charles: silver amazing chart, on verge of amazing a breakout, what do you think? >> i'm uncomfortably long silver. i'm happy today. the reality gold has huge

herculean rallies. silver waits in the ring. it starts out a precious metal dollar head, no kids vote in currencies. when the ratio gets out of whack, the silver catches up quick live. as soon as it trades 25, $26 an ounce. i didn't add to my longs, i have a plenty of longs. like you said i've been beating this drum for a year. charles: i have a less than a year, letters than a minute to go. i want to talk about gold in different respect, gold vis-a-vis equity premium forestocks, the divergence is maddening. gold can be a harbinger for other things, geopolitical, political, economic. are you sensing not only something could be negative in the wing for stocks but the economy overall? >> yes. actually i do believe that. i believe that about, let's call it about four or five months from now, liquidity in the reverse repo facility is drained i believe it could correspond

with some fissures in the banking system related to commercial real estate. we have the highest say vacancies in the commercial real estate. i think that is one of the political conditions that jay powell talks more dovish than the macroeconomic looks at. i think the fed will judgment back in. they if you had in the vvb problem, they will jump back in. that supported gold and silver. but the initial move in stocks could be initially lower with a bad macroeconomic headline that is why i have a lot of options protection on the downside. charles: jim, appreciate it. my next guest has been perplexed about the wall street giddiness with all the rate cuts. former assistant treasury secretary for economic policy, michael falkander. lots of mixed signals with this economy. what is your assessment where this economy truly is right now? >> yeah, charles if you look at

the growth in jobs as your previous guest said a lot is in government and government funded services like health care. the inflation numbers are still coming in higher. i don't know if the fed will really give up on its 2% target. that would be quite the failure on jay powell's part. prior to the pandemic they set the new regime, average target stipulated 2% to abandon it already would demonstrate they failed in their primary objective of price stability. i think the economy still has got some inflationary pressures. job growth remains strong but a lot is coming from government budget deficits. >> there are some smart money folks out there, i spoke with jim before you, not sure you heard, talking about the move in gold, move in oil, maybe negative omens for our economy, maybe negative geopolitical signs what do you think? >> that is the thing when you see commodity prices rising it seems to suggest we still have got inflation ahead of us. when you look at the biden administration doing things like what they did last friday, saying now all of the movement

of goods around our country by trucks has got to move to electric vehicles all of that pushes even more inflation on to an economy already going way above its price target. so there is a lot of inflationary pressure coming from the spending activities here in washington, the regulatory activities and so i, we got to stop calling upon the fed to curb all of our inflationary problems and that is why i don't understand the market at the beginning of the year thinking there would be six rate cuts. it still thinks there will be three rate cuts. i don't see why fiscal and regulatory policy will generate inflation reduction that would call for those kind of rate cuts. charles: you're absolutely right and to that point jay oil took, has heard a lot of criticism today. today he pushed back. he said, i'm kind of paraphrase here, the fed relives on data for their analysis, not personal political bias. think about this our past fed chair, prior, janet yellen is now a political animal.

the potential next fed chair, legal brainard is saying janet yellen hold my beer, right? we know they're political people and i don't know, do we just believe that none of that seeps into policy decisions? >> of course it does because you know my view is that the federal reserve and the treasury are a lot more aligned than they have historically been, particularly because janet yellen is a former fed chair and so you know, there is always meetings on a weekly basis between the secretary and the chair but you look at the way that monetary policy has supported the out of control fiscal policy of this administration and really facilitated the monetizaton of some of the debt, there is more alignment it seems to me than there has been in previous administrations. charles: i wanted to get back to what you were talking about this fiscal spending because we have a war-time budget. the budget we are, we have only had in wars. a trillion dollars in interest payments and you know, all in an effort to pick winners and

decide losers and keeping inflation elevated this seems to me, honestly to be quite frank a crime against the average american? >> it really is because as you know inflation is the most insidious of taxes because it hits our, it hits low income people the hardest and so, you know, joe biden can say all he wants that he is not raising taxes on households making less than $400,000 a year but if you look how far behind households have gotten under the biden administration, the first three years of the trump administration we saw household income on and inflation adjusted basis go up by $6,000. under this administration it has dropped $2,000 and the group that has been hit the hardest are the young people. charles: yeah. >> you had the poll prior to the break how much young people now view the economy as the number one issue. they're the ones that are struggling the most to buy cars, buy houses, they're not the ones who are able to lock in really low interest rates and when you incorporate the interest rate effect on top of the inflation,

those groups are just getting crushed under this economy. >> you know, michael, there is a difference between organic growth and this sort of fake growth where you print trillions of dollars pour it into the economy take credit for nominal growth and everyone is suffering under the pain of inflation. michael, let's talk real soon. >> great to be with you. charles: it is all about risk and reward. nancy davis with some really, really provocative thoughts here. you want to listen to this because you're here to make some money. we'll be right back. ♪. morikawa on 18. he is really boxed in here. -not a good spot.

off the comcast business van. into the vending area. oh, not the fries! where's the ball? -anybody see it? oh wait, there it is! -back into play and... aw no, it's in the water. wait a minute... -alligator. are you kidding me? you got to be kidding me. rolling towards the cup, and it's in the hole! what an impossible shot brought to you by comcast business.

when i was your age, we never had anything like this. what? wifi? wifi that works all over the house, even the basement. the basement. so i can finally throw that party...

and invite shannon barnes. dream do come true. xfinity gives you reliable wifi with wall-to-wall coverage on all your devices, even when everyone is online. maybe we'll even get married one day. i wonder what i will be doing? probably still living here with mom and dad. fast reliable speeds right where you need them. that's wall-to-wall wifi on the xfinity 10g network.

♪. charles: all right, sew my next guest believes that risk is asymmetric. now i have read were asymmetric risk is the concept of taking risks that will produce a return that far surpasses risk taken. it is an important concept. many say it could actually change the quality of your life. i want to bring in quadratic inflation etf fund portfolio manager nancy davis. nancy, that wasn't your definition of it, but is that what we're talking about here? >> charles, you're singing my

song. i named my firm quadratic risk. when you buy the option most you lose is premium that you pay, because the payoff is asymmetric. it is not a linear instrument like a stock or bond or contract like a future. i'm all about asymmetric risk charles: how is that different from crazy, exotic, zero day options? it is a controlled risk. feels like the options market in general taken on sort of hit or miss, casino roll of the dice kind of environment lately? >> they have a bad reputation for a good reason but i think the thing to keep in mind if you buy the option the most you ever lose is the premium that you pay. depends if you're long options or short options f you're short options, you're short asymmetric risk, you make a little bit and can lose a lot. with long options you spend a little and make a lot.

it is key going into the inflation picture we're dealing with today, so many unknownses, especially the fiscal situation as well. charles: with this inflation picture, we had jay powell speaking today, we got the federal reserve, he was really defensive today. obviously he is under a tremendous amount of pressure. what do you make of the job that they're doing so far? >> i mean it's tricky. it's very easy to be very critical but i do think the balance sheet is still way too big. charles: really? >> they did more qe in the eight weeks after the start of the u.s. pandemic than they did in the 12 years prior. so the balance sheet is still massive. they have been obviously hiking rates and now we have rate cuts on the table but i think they could do more with the balance sheet as a monetary policy tool. charles: but you said you think also the fed will be more tolerant of high inflation or higher inflation? >> i don't think that is the right thing to do but i think they are. charles: right. >> i think the pivot has happened. and whether inflation is going to be high or not they're still going to be on this path of you know, cutting rates and easing

right now. charles: just had a guest before you saying that sort of the defacto number is 2.6. we know inflation target is 2%. no one seems to believe that anymore. you believe it could be even higher than that? >> i just don't think the cpi is the right way to measure inflation. charles: right. >> put a pin in that because a third of the cpi, it is consumer price index a third of it is shelter which is owner occupied rent. i don't think it is the only way to measure inflation. i think that is the thing people are missing. everyone's inflation basket looks different. yours looks different than mine and it is just not the only waive. nobody would use one index to measure the equity market. >> right, right. investors, you say may be too complacent here? >> i feel like -- charles: they haven't had a 2% pullback in 110 trading days or so? >> it has been a weird start of the year because there is sew many risks out there but everything is sort of rising tides are lifting all boats now. so i think it is important to

search for non-correlated assets. if everything is making money in your portfolio right now you should be worried. you're not diversified. charles: i started the show with a table of two things that didn't work in the first quarter, fixed income and reits. you wouldn't be looking, would those be areas that would be attractive simply because they have been such laggards? >> well, fixed income is so general, right? there are so many different types. charles: sure. there are parts of the bond market that have done okay, but let's say tlt, agg, the general boned trades a lot of people put on that have not worked by the way. >> yeah. i mean the problem with the agg there is no inflation protection in the agg index. it is an old index. the inflation markets are new, right? even the swaps market, it only started in really the 2000s. so there is no inflation protected bonds. it is only short volatility because of the exposure to mortgages. it is really important to not go buy one index because it says

core in the name and to have other things in there. charles: what is the symbol for your etf, nancy. >> it is eyeball. not i, like inflation volatility. charles: ivol. >> vol has been down, squashed this year. inflation expectations have fallen. everybody thinks the inflation bottle is won. charles: to your point everyone is complacent. we know that is recipe ultimately for -- thanks a lot, nancy. really appreciate it. don't forget hosting "unbreakable investor." that is the town hall, april 24, 2:00 p.m. remember the last two were standing room only. it will be be a blast, come here, join me in studio in person. we'll take some questions. we'll do some interesting things you have never seen before. go to eventbrite.com, search charles payne and get your free ticket right now. could the days of the gym be over? the stars of the fitness world don't exist anymore.

maybe because of ozempic and other things. we'll discuss that and what the hottest ipos are. coming right up. ♪.

it's payback time. all these years, you've worked hard. you fixed it. you looked after it. maybe it's time for your home to start taking care of you? we've invested in our home, we've worked on it, we had a whole lot of equity just sitting there, you paid down the mortgage, invested in your home. i guess, you could say, your home owes you. if you're 62 or older and own your home, learn how you can access a portion of your home equity to give you cash. a reverse mortgage can put more money in your pocket by eliminating your monthly mortgage payments, paying off higher interest credit cards, and covering medical costs. look, aag can show you how a reverse mortgage loan

uses your built-up home equity to give you tax-free cash for almost anything you might need. just eliminating the mortgage payment freed up a lot of cash for us. i get to go do what i want when i want. aag customers talked about the counseling they got along the way so they know how a reverse mortgage works, and how their home could help pay them back when they need it the most. i have no more worries anymore the fact that we're still in this home, means so much. it's done everything for us that we hope it would do for us. call now to receive your free no-obligation info kit. the kit shows you how to get you the cash you need using your home's equity with a reverse mortgage. find out how your home can start taking care of you. the worry every single month to make that payment was gone. our customers' homes are taking care of them. maybe, your home could do the same for you.

call aag, the country's #1 reverse mortgage lender, and get your free info kit. call this number ♪ me and my friends ♪ ♪ life is better with the credit gods are on your side. rewards once available to the few are now accessible to the many. credit one bank. get cash back rewards, and live large.

charles: all right, folk, the ipos are heating up. you know how i feel about them, but there's some in the pipeline that look very intriguing, and my next guest is saying, listen, there may be some buys in here, sarah cousin. i want to talk about -- sarah kunst. one firm raised 120 million in chip investing, and another firm, $350 million. it's a secretive start-up, of course, to fight obesity. i guess that's where it's going to be, right? if a.i. chips and obesity. maybe that's where you want to be looking. >> you know, i think that it is better to be making a.i. chips right now than potato chips,

because the reality is that people are excited about these weight loss companies, you know? i was on probably almost a year ago a talking about ozempic and novo e nor disk, and and we've seen what that's done since then. there is a ton of appetite in this market, and we're also seeing even people like bernie sanders weighing in saying, hey, these drugs are too expensive. make them cheaper and more accessible. and so i do think we're going to continue to see more competition, you if ibiquity, and this is just one toking to be a huge, huge category for investors. charles: today intel said they lost $7 billion on their foundry, right? so not all chip companies are going to be the same. >> absolutely. and a lot of that depends on what your core business is. we think of these things as kind of monoliths, we hear a.i. chip, and we nod and think we know what they mean, but some are are actually fabricating the chips. they have factories where they are making these chips physically. some are designing chips, they don't have the same factories. and others are still sitting at

other parts of the ecosystem. so i think when you look at it, it's a big market. there are huge incouple bents like intel who's been around for a long time, upstarts like some of these companies that are raising money now, and so the reality is that it's not a monolith, and you have to really understand what you're getting into and not just jump when you hear the words a.i. chip. charles: by the way, i wanted to share with the audience this is funding for gym, zero, squat. the reason i brought that up is sometimes this ipo market is, it reflects society in general, right? so i do want to talk about another thing because i know it's near and dear to your heart with cleo capital, number of new women-founded unicorns really starting to collapse here. are you concerned about that? >> you know, it's unfortunate, and we end tend to see this happen when funding slows down. you see that the funding, the people who are getting the least amount of it, it tends to dry up quickest. and so as the late-stage funding market is heating back up a little bit with some of these

big start-up rounds that you mentioned earlier, i do think that gives hope that we will see more awe. >> if female-led companies go on to raise more money. and if that unicorn designator, but keep in mind we want unicorns to be companies hard making money and are big, not just companies that, you know, vcs are throwing money at. charles: right. >> the overall lower number of unicorns isn't a bad thing. charles: aye got to give you props right now because one year ago today, you gave the audience three stocks, disney -- up about 20%. nvidia, up 220. meta, up 130%. disney's been involved in a big shareholder battle. would you buy disney here? if. >> you know, it's really interesting, right, they won that battle. and there's a new old management team back in. i think it's an interesting company again. it's really, really, really op-x heavy, they run parks and that is not something that, you know, there's a lot of money in that. and so i think there is still

some upside in that a disney stock. but keep in mind it's a complicated, big business, more than just a shareholder -- charles: yeah. it used to be a slam dunk. between you and i, i think management has done a terrible job. i got 30 seconds. amazon is a name you do like, you say this is the a.i. story being overlooked. >> i i think that we haven't thought of amazon as an a.i. name, but, you know, aws is making big strides trying to help start-ups early with their cloud compute and chip space and really scale with them, and if it goes anything like aws has done in other categories they've competed for, this could be a really big business for them. i also like that they're sort of reining in some of their crazier experiments like the amazon fresh stores where you just stop and walk out. turns out people were just kind of stealing. charles: listen, we used to call it the five finger discount. [laughter] all right. so i just did the math. a year from if now, amazon should be about $360 -- >> i am am not saying that.

charles: all i'm saying, based on your track record, you lifted the bar not me. see you soon, sarah. >> the jobs report out on friday, and it is going to obviously be a market mover. to be quite frank will with you, most of the financial media have already written the scripts. if they beat, wow, what an amazing jobs market. the revision, of course, will not be mentioned unless it's one of those rare times where the numbers move higher. there's going to be pom-poms, everyone's going to be giving high phi ifs. but -- fives. you want to the go through all of the report. i already know that the jobs market is no where near as strong as the narratives out there. what maybeses this worrisome -- makes this worry many -- wore worrisome if is the federal reserve may wait too long to raise rates. we talked about the hard data and soft data, there's also people in the know. craig full if everything we've had him on the show, he put out a tweet yesterday that caught my

attention. the trucking market is soft right now. he ends it by saying the market is brutal. this morning i also read that the math for class a trucks, that's beginning to collapse. so i've been asking guests how they like to see rallies. i like to theme on a strong economy, right? one that's organically driven. not a strong economy that you're pumping trillions of dollars into. there's good news for investors. all of that cash eventually does flow to the bottom line of corporate america. eventually, it will get into the bank account of the top 1%. this is what i want youd to do. it's not a dart-throwing market, but a align yourself with the top 11%, and the best way that i know is to be invested in the stock market -- 1%. and the best way to do well in the stock mark is the watch this show and my friend, liz clay match. liz: i know. it's like a big business bloc, charles. i love it. $2-4, call out s