it says. >> welcome back. good thurpgs morning thanks for joining us. i'm maria bartiromo i hope you are having a good thursday morning thursday, march 14 before 8:00 on the east coast time for hot, hot hour house passing bail could pave way

for tiktok to be banned in the united states kelly o'grady live. >> that is right dramatic action we've seen taken against tiktok yet the house passed with rare bipartisan support from republicans democrats alange, as you said, next to senate legislation also enjoys that a bump support, senators marco rubio mark warner issuing this are we are united about concern for national security flat posed by tiktok a platform with enormous power to influence divide americans whose parent company bytedance remains legal required to do bidding of chinese communist party there are tensions are on what is best for executive powers impact on free speech rand paul called legislation a quote draconian measure tiktok vowing to fight the bill,

warning the implications. >> it will take billions of dollars out of the pockets of criticors, small business put more than 300,000 american jobs at risk, to small business owners who rely on tiktok to make ends meet. >> one point during debate tiktok isn't the only platform that is potentially causing harm here beyond national security more sweeping issues regarding mental young users cross social media that need to be addressed we are a long way before tiktok bill hits the president's desk but, social media last night i was shocked at the rampant misinformation among users a total ban not forced sale many young voters i think not voting for biden if this goes through something to watch maria: he is on tiktok trying to get young people to vote for him. >> exactly. maria: thank you kelly o'grady fox news, to college

campuses to speak request you younger students about views on tiktok. >> i just don't buy the whole conspiracy idea that we are being spied on by big governments a lot of conservatives, always talking about free speech, now, there is this major channel that allows people to express them freely yet they want to take it >> do you think the chinese communist party is spying on americans. >> i don't think so, yeah i don't think they are. >> lighted on how much valuable information getting. >> i don't know how much security threat that is just because majority tiktok users are going to be like of my demographic, having fun. >> doing whatever they want, no understanding of the national security threat here from students. >> there is a few things number one i think illustrates that the average american today has no understanding of

their own value. the amount of value that can be derived understanding, what people are buying, what people are looking at what they like what they save in the nation 300 million people you cannot begin to put a price on that, then if you think of again national security elements the average american does not think of, you cannot have a chinese communist party reading everything you do, knowing everything you do something has to be done with tiktok a broke ken clock is right two times a day there are serious implications as to how this crafted precedent it sets. >> yesterday mark in terms of what the app on foips animal to compulsorying from of course all your information your personal information because you've got your you know who you are right there but, also, your keystrokes

what you search. >>. mark: scary. >> it is scary. mark: the people interviewed like i don't believe in conspiracy theories did you read twitter files u.s. government spying us on you don't think ccp is spying through that app? >> close to guarantee that is happening, the fact kind of turning a blind eye to it is a little it is a little disturbing. maria: they want to get videos, i just having fun cat videos, no. >> telling us putting jobs at risk go to platforms how about selling platform reality kids don't understand magnitude of what is happening chinese are spying on us, of course, of course shaping public opinion, so easy manipulated the reality is this is a huge threat if we get 200 republicans, democrats come together say this is a threat i am going to say something i

believe congress on this one. >>. mark: spy balloon everyone forgot about that we know chinese do everything they can to spy. >> the chineseing police stations. >> surveillance be ten event covid comp you said the gates they are inside gates of america number one adversary. >> people don't understand they say all fine, my kat video, look at shop only, we're whistling to the graveyard. >> the head of truth social trump's media company told me that on october of, october 5 people on tiktok probably don'th didn't know where gaza was all of a sudden about the october 7 happens, hamas goes into israel attacks israel suddenly attacks on israel on tiktok, riling people up to go

protest in the streets pro-palestinian protesters. >> 3,000 people on books, from river to the sea, before understood what was happening can't find gaza on a gap people don't understand the power of social media, they don't recognize their own value, you were talking about 300,000 jobs mentioned but goes to show, what are those jobs? those are content creators looking at world jobs no longer the meted wrooik the metric how much value can you generate that comes from the individual genuinelying individual patterns, with 21st century if people don't nuns a market deficit when it comes to making sure america remains -- >> under trump -- i don't know where that went serious interests larry ellison i know. >>. mark: oracle microsoft in

running for it i guess biggest question i have with this whole issue is how do you force the sale what are the consequences if the sale does not go through? then your banned, hild to assume i don't understand exactly how that works there has to be a number of potential suitors in the u.s. we can gather maintain that data here, and u.s. government can -- [laughter] >>. maria: rebuilt with u.s. technology we are taking a short break, the number of gotaways coming into this country, is increasing, mens raising for new wave of venezuelan gangs the gangsters ready to cross into the country we are looking at that from national security standpoint, with doug fisher and reaction you are watching "mornings with maria" live on fox business, stay with us. ♪ -- ♪

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. maria: welcome back. borrowed sources telling fox news griff generalkins at least 132,000 known gotaways since october last year that averages 800 gotaways entering the country every day, so far this fiscal year, the immigration cries impacting 2024 race as well new fox news poll shows former president trump leading president biden 4 points in border state arizona joining me nebraska senator deb fischer, the ranking member of senate rules committee your reaction to what we're seeing at the border? >> obviously, my party, republicans, very, very worried that we don't have a secure border we don't see any help coming from our democrat colleagues. we see absolutely no action

being taken by president biden. in fact,he has said publicly that he plans on taking, no executive order action, in order to control and secure our border. >> in fact venezuelan gangs are quite concerning, there are gang members in new york that nypd told us about a report warns second wave possible venezuelan criminals crossing into america through the border the current reportedly released at least 100 inmates from venezuelan prisons, last year more than 335,000 venezuelan migration encounters less than 1,000 deportations, can you explain this why 335,000 people from venezuelan coming to this country only o deported 834? and now we know venezuelan authorities are lets out their prisoners, and we're expecting prisoners to come here two

alleged members of venezuelan gang tren de aragua are suspects in the border tactic on twob new york city polices off services in january. >> how serious. >> very serious all know about murder of laken riley reaction by the president to it was -- um -- really disgusting. we saw president trump meet with family embrace the family we saw president biden barrel mentions it in state of the union speech, and has had no outreach to the family. the alleged murderer is from venezuela, as you said, we're seeing, maduro turned back planes trying to return venezuelans to their own country as we turn them back, we turn so very few back out of that 330,000 -- 330,000 only 834 have been returned or turned back, so we are seeing

now prison gangs come into yu customs and border protection i identitied tattoos they have to try to help their agents identify more we know being sent to our country. but we're getting, no help from this administration. we have had no help from this administration. in securing our own border and protecting american citizens, since joe biden took office. maria: i mean we're hearing loud and clear from police across the country about gangs no reaction swaefr at the white house i don't understand this we spoke with pauln last week on this program listen to what he said about this specific venezuelan gang in new york. >> tren de aragua, first of all, i deniedfiable by at twos, telling don't get gang

tag until in the country want them past the border, really powerful gang punch above weight in south america expand beyond venezuela because every migrant routes into ecuador, panama southern bordering organized a great force are multiplier. >> national security issues we talk about are not a priority for this administration, is that a fair statement? . >> definitely, core responsibility a core duty of the federal government is national security. we aren't seeing that happen with regards to our own border, another core duty of a government is public safety, when we know and being told by government officials customs and border protection prisons gangs into the united states trying the to get agents' help

identifying them but agents aren't receiving help from this administration we have a public safety issue on many fronts national security with no border security, and gangs now more and more gangs coming into this country, and murdering harming american citizens. >> based on what i have heard from various law enforcement i think that human trafficking is soaring in this country, i mean human trafficking is another import quote/unquote getting from wide-open border isn't it? >> oh, yes, you know,i have been to the border what we're told when we visit the border is that different organized crimes syndicates in mexico control certain parts of the border. they seem, of course, how they can make most money can they make it by getting, immigration, coming across most money through fentanyl or

human trafficking they make decisions based on how much money they can make, we are seeing more and more and more human trafficking. maria: that, you know, i keep mentioning this joe case roger martial senator from kansas told me recently they have more massage parlors than starbucks setting up massage parlors ccp behind it working with drug cartels as front for human trafficking in america. look i think in the boom and bust what do we always see we see increase in sex trades the only economy as proxy for what you know is happening in blakt markets senator my question for you understanding what maria is talking about if fact there is such trafficking happening, rapes on southern border darién gap you hear shipping over 300,000 migrants

to cities across this country over 42 cities without local governments knowing who is covering how is it possible, for law enforcement to curtail this tragedy in plain site. >> it is did i you know, i've said for many years under the biden administration with every state is a border say it. maria: right. >> nebraska we see techs trafficking across our state we have in the past, various activities, that are held in nebraska you see increase in that, our law enforcement in nebraska dresses that but when you have such an increase, it is very, very difficult to be able to not just identify it, but then to attack it and take care of victims. >> let me ask you about the over threat talking about frshlgs the ccp that is the surveillance/propaganda issue around tiktok house overwhelmingly passed a bill

could end up banning tiktok in the u.s. chinese parent company bytedance refuses to sell it bill to senate tiktok ceo officials reportedly on lobbying blitz on capitol hill urging to make voices heard what happens to the tiktok bill when it comes to the support. >> i support house bill as i see it now i think when it comes to the senate, there may be some efforts to amend it address some concerns but once again talking about national security we need to be aware what tiktok is in this country, and how the chinese are targeting a whole generation of americans. their gathering tremendous amount of information. you know i like to say vacuuming it up in future knowing peoples preferences what they pause to look at on tiktok what grabs attention

how they would be able to influence these kids, as adults, in the future on how they act, what they think, how they vote, and influence that. you know,when we -- look at target in tiktok remember we're not talking about banned targeting tiktok we are talking about targeting a foreign adversary owning a company that has such influence here in the united states. the cold war we never would have left soviet union have any kind of power the chinese government has now. maria: s s extraordinary a great analogy before you go facing another funded deadline march 22 do you expect shutdown or are you going to continue continuing resolutions, i am looking at the funding last week we were able to pass six fills where the house six appropriation

bills that went through, the senate appropriations committee, had public hearings, had an open process. maria: yep. >> i hope the house can send good bills now, and we don't look at shutting the government down. maria: senator we will be watching thanks very much for being hearing this deb fischer in d.c. we will see you soon joe pinion back with ppi report all-hands-on-deck for economic data coming out stay with us. .

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imprison faculty this morning a rally underway a ahead of the february producer price index out 3 1/2 minutes dow industrials up 134, the nasdaq up 72, on ppi economists expecting gain 3/10 of a percent month-over-month a gain 1.1% year-over-year, retail sales in a few minutes expecting month-over-month increase 8/10 federal reserves strip out, ought, former toys "r" us chairman former target vice chairman gerald storch what are expectations for inflation right now we are waiting on ppi out 3 minutes' time. >> always hard to predict

month-to-month movement cpi, expect for ppi linked by the way, because rising inflation continues to address consumers have effect on retail sales report we get at the same time. >> i want your take really on you know consumer what is in if backdrop you've been skeptical of rainbows, puppy dog narratives about market campaigned how assess consumer. >> consumer is stretched, three of 3.2%, last month, year-over-year we look at inflation, continuing, if doubt grow by more than 3.2% wore churning same dollars silly to say consumer is -- when spending more to get same amount of goods because of inflation we see debt rising credit card debt rising buy now, pay later rising s consumers spending necessities

all they have money for hard to see consumer hot on fire or something like that. >> i know when you look at retail thaerngs we report on a lot better than expected do you think largely profits of talking about, are also, indicating just the result of inflation? things cost more. >> well when they say better than expected the bar set low, almost no retail zero based on my analysis who switched from having negative same-store sales in third quarter to positive fourth quarter even doing well walmart tjx, costco results sort of as sales line than prior, earnings generated by cost reduction, plenty retailers posted negative same-store sales in fourth quarter best buy lowe's, macy's, kohl's, target, home depot all negative for the quarter year-over-year basis with inflation in numbers. maria: wow. . i want your take on what this

means for the fed because a moment ago i spoke with the founder of grants interest rate observer made a contrary comment about fed watch jim grant with me a few moments ago watch this. >> a cut in rates anytime soon. >> no. the well they is a say, three-ish is fine. >> 3% inflation. >> concern over inflation focus on financial stability if they would define it i think also a chance this year that fed raises, if they are confronted with an accelerating rate of inflation, they have no choice who is to say 3.2% thing couldn't go up, 80 dollar oil price no longer 70. >> would move markets if fd raised rates. >> -- personal don't expect that to happen i don't want them raising rates i certainly don't see cut rates anytime

soon given let's see what numbers are inflation still strong they are not going to touch. >> waiting on ppi is a mentioned retail sales as we await ppi, yield in 10-year above 4.2%, up 3 basis points, 2.8 basis points level 4.22%, on 10-year cheryl casone numbers. cheryl: you know what this ppi report coming in hotter than expected we came in month-over-month up .6% expectation up .3% we came in hotter year-over-year came up 1.6% year-over-year headline ppi street looking for 1.1% much hire than read a month ago, core month-over-month, gain .3%, hotter than expected estimate was .2% then core year-over-year a, a gain 2%, even the street looking for 1.9% this is in line with read

a month ago, that core ppi, now to retail sales came in, weaker than expected, month-over-month we came in up .6% street looking for .8%, x autos up.3% street looking for .5%, sorry i just -- one more number okay, quick, x autos .3%, year-over-year just got that, came in stronger than expected the year-over-year coming in 1.5%, so excuse me stronger than we got read for january, january was only .7% this yearier retail sales number 1 1/2%, so that is pretty, pretty interesting here guys i think the real retail sales expecting a boost from auto sales gasoline prices didn't, gas up .9% month-over-month

car parts sales, 1.6% up that was negative last month, so, you know, take what you will from headlines numbers getting here quick, jobless claims a little bit weaker than expected 209 initial read looking for 218 i am digging into government report right now tell you exactly what their citing then back to you again ppi a little more than cpi what there are talking about saying, tracing this to -- food, energy and trade, there are saying basically, it was -- in the report i will give you specifics on ppi. maria: something that jim grant mentioned look at oil right now 80 dollars, that is a problem for inflation, cheryl we are going to keep watching your work get back to you joining me mow in meantime macromavens president stephanie pomboy former cbo

director, douglas holtz-eakin with me gerry storch, mark tepper chris mackman cheryl casone stephanie hotter than expected, expecting a cut in interest rates even as inflation stays elevated consumer slowing down reaction? >> of, hope springs he alternatival we've got to keep that narrative going faction to contrary, my broad unless of numbers that really in keeping with what has been my thesis, throughout here and that is that we're going to have sort of reacceleration in input price pressures primarily driven by hire energy prices and the question now for the market what is the capacity of corporate america to pass this price increases to consumers who collateral increasingly spent up and lent up and i think this morning retail sales numbers

underscore that. getting back to point gerry made i think so important when you look at retail sales just the for inflation, this month marks 24 straight months, where we've had zero growth in real retail sales if you deflate retail by ccii nowhere since february 22, consumers have not been buying more goods just spending more for exactly the same amount of stuff that they were buying two years ago. so that is not you know, an indication of a strong consumer, no landing soft landing naifrz to the contrary my sense this is going to be a real issue for corporate profit margins not priced into the markets at all still expecting, double-digit earnings growth this year of course, that pivot continues to be -- um -- you know

something that their planning for. maria: are a i thought extraordinary that jim grant just said fed could actually raise rates not expecting that either but to hear jim grant say that mark jump in. mark: nonconsensus we have consumer, inflation continues to proven month after month after month coming in hotter than expected, and this pass to disinflation fed believes we're on investors believe we are on biden administration wants us to believe we are on a bumpy path you go through history study high inflationary periods throughout history globally not just in u.s. you find 87% of those cases a second wave of inflation. i am incredibly concerned given recent trajectory of cpi now look at ppi print that we

may be facing a second wave of inflation, if you go back to what market investors were expecting as far as rate cuts back january 1 of this year, are they were pricing in 5.7 cuts, it is down to 3.2, i don't see any way three cuts i definitely do not believe june is first cut, maybe one,maybe two the very end of the year but just seems like uphill battle for the fed to move forward with cutting rates at this point in time. >> the narrative, faction matter 22 months inverted yield curve that means recession coming, closed 1,000 stores last week, this is real significant, i think we have to we have to prepare, if we see interest rate increase i think could create a significant downward pressure. >> great point about store

clovgs i totally agree to be aware of d. >> i think key in consumer, u.s. economy second half 2023, really to be concerned coming into this report we saw real disposal income drop 50% was growing 4% dropped to 2% recent data, if consumer falters no alternative, the narrative about 2% is over rated, we have inflation expectations, at three, core cpi ourn all in vicinity 3% an inflationary -- not getting there easily in the interim we're we don't have a guarantee for growth fed in a

tough position. maria: no growth plan out of this white house, frankly cheryl you know what nancy lazar said it takes 10 quarters for rate cycles to take place, the fed raised rates 11 times ep we haven't seen felt that impact going to you start cutting rates? cheryl: i do think seeing effects the consumer mentioned digging into report worrisome things as far as consumer pulling back into ppi, when i found 70% of that rise in ppi report, was gasoline prices, energy you don't have a choice gas up your car truck diesel fuel as well also other things that are kind of staples even ppi i was looking at chicken eggs jet fuel story, and tobacco products rise as well

an energy story goes reports put together you can see consumer faltering paying more for everyday items for food services inflation story kind of is back in the headlines as well, then, anyway all of that the fed can do what they want, i will tell you that it looks like the futures pared back a little bit. >> stephanie i have been making the point rent steam to have stabilized i spoke with steven schwartzman other day chairman ceo of blackstone largest owner commercial rein the world said don't pt buy hype don't believe headlines rent is down to flat i know it he said i am owner of the commercial real estate in the largest owner here so rent is not an issue, but can a decline in rent offset, continued elevation in food like cheryl told you, energy i don't think so. your thoughts. >> i agree with you, maria, i

think we have to put this in context we've had two years of rapidly rising prices for consumers what we're talking about is rate of change is slowing, so that is not alleviating a burden on top of that have not touched on the issue of debt service, i mean not for nothing that consumers are delinquent on ought and credit card loans at the highest rate since right after the global financial crisis so service for households through the roof the highest relative to income since, that prior episode. and policy higher costs everything they can't live without obviously, a problem in no way he reflected in the pricing of risk benefits, in the market. one thing i would point outs this is a small anecdote i think an important one, you know, a lot of the sort of establish naifrts facial about

the consumer says during covid everyone went wild spending on goods, now they switched to services and experiences that is where spending money forget with retail sales numbers looks like spends on the ground travel restaurants all of that. in january national restaurant association reported weakest sales in traffic since restaurants were closed since you couldn't go there during covid, the only time we were close to this week prior was during the great recession we have never seen restaurant traffic in sales breathtaking i think a really important shot across the bow about health of consumer willingness to continue to spend, while paying these higher credit card fees, you know interest service, and prices at the gas pump. maria: looks like the price increases have broadened out

forcing to take out inflation tracker got it here after cpi released, motor vehicle insurance mark up 20% sewing machines fabric supplies up 11% notes just goods but svrdz, again oil underneath it all. mark: said but consumer is starting to feel tapped out to stephanie's point to credit card delinquency raises, 19 states, that have credit card delinquency rates in excess of 20% highest mississippi 39.1%, delinquency rate on credit cards the consumer stayed afleet working two jobs tough working two jobs to get a third job so you can continue spending. they've been reducing the amount that saving out of paycheck they've been reaching for credit cards, credit card debts over 1.1 trillion

dollars today now finding out not pieing, their credit card so looks like a pretty brutal inflation trying to keep up with inflationary pressures that continue to bog us on how. >> your thoughts. >> building two categories that have been driving the consumer sales last year are not strong today so one is nonstore retailers up 6% year-over-year not very good for internet sales generally double digits same with restaurants you mentioned earlier restaurant sales up 6% year-over-year all threw last year all year before double digits that slows down, we are going to see general slowdown not just summer spending but also for vacations services restaurants we said spending

money a very weak report overall consistent with thesis consumer running out of money all they can buy is necessities if i were a investor i would focus on walmart costco tjx other value based retailers where money is going to be spent. >> we spoke to ceo on that value first thing consumers aring this about when stopping we are peeling the onion on ppi seeing real weak spots for the consumer worrisome spots for inflation, can you explain the capital markets to me please in dow industrials up 170 points right now near highs of the morning, your thoughts chris. >> we have a lot of exuberance going on incredible energy capital markets work people excited about it talk about bitcoin, excited about things the reality we couldn't i wouldn't disagree more secretary yellen said american family saving 1400 dollars a month in capacity middle class

families they are pinched from every possible angle the question when does capacity come i don't believe another stimulus coming there will be failures possession of cars a prd of reckoning to the end of this. >> stephanie? >> i absolutely agree with that, as you know, maria i have been firmly in hard landing camp from the moment fed started raising rates my forecast hasn't changed this data reinforces that one thing interesting bifurcation impact rate hikes had primarily because, on wall street, they are to inured to fed put basically blew off entire tightening cycle said that is

temporary inconvenience if we get from here to there fine so you have the tremendous, um -- risk appetite in the face of higher rates we haven't seen before with capital markets, extending credit to weaker, companies and enableing them to extend maturities into time they thought pivot would come. has not been a luxury that has been provided to main street, that is why you are seeing delinquency rays on auto credit cards, et cetera, highest since global financial crisis i expect eventual those delinquency rates will be mirrored in corporate sector on default side once becomes clear pivoting coming if it does come not sufficient to arrest solvency issues we are seeing untold. >> a lot of expectations there certainly surrounding office space in terms of defaults to come doug what is most

important to you right now in terms of the macrostory of this report? >> i think most important question is what happens to business investment capex numbers really bad in the second half of 2023, up a little bit for fourth quarter durable goods haven't been so strong the consumer has carried this economy,if consumer falters not capex willing to pick up pieces, recipe for hard landing a concern, really something worth watching. >> great point nancy mentioned it a whole report big capex construction, slowdown unfolds we look at capex durable goods orders things like that mark, because these are big ticket itemsan times when you see big corporations slow down in terms of spending on capex it is an important indicator for what is to come. mark: i guess would lead to you believer maybe economy is

getting ready to slow, maria to your point on commercial real estate issues i want to chime in on that quick, look. the second biggest building in downtown cleveland, clooefbd might not be new york second biggest building downtown cleveland current owner owes 145 million or something on building negotiations right now to purchase that building for 50 million dollars, i -- i mean you are talking about a substantial write down, on debt associated with that building not to mention the fact building is worth a third as much as it used to be worth there's been but seems like, you know, to stephanie's point about corporate debt you've got corporations need to refinance debt at higher rates going to present a problem we as a country need to refinance roughly half our treasurys over the course next three years, likely higher interest rates, all these things point to big-time headwinds for the

economy to continue to move forward and maybe maria maybe that is why in order to grow 330 billion in fourth quarter we have to take out 830 billion dollars of debt, to finance that growth. maria: a great point, doug, that debt is, obviously, front and center, with 34 trillion dollars in overall debt the amount of money it takes to hold that debt, is increasing with higher rates. >> no question -- the president put out budget monday, that budget is a nonstarter, under that plan, interest costs ask exceed spending of every agency including pentagon by the end of the year that o can't go down that route has to be a real reckoning in washington time to pay bills. >> in that budget has 5 1/2 trillion dollars of new higher taxes. so you are talking about. >> -- >> he has 7.7 trillion one of

all time. >> 7.7 trillion new taxes douging? yes, yes. >> tell me about that, i am reading 5 1/2 trillion you are saying much more, how do you arrive at that number . >> so if you look at, current law the omb baseline the president's starting point, they differ 2.8 trillion in revenue, white house not even talking about willing to talk about 4.9 but that is a ton of taxes in that budget a very dangerous economic plan. maria: he is telling us what potential next four years will look like for sure much higher taxes on economy that is already stretched, gerry. >>. >> absolutely. i think a very tough environment right now, numbers show it i don't want to be boy cried wolf a lot of of them

improvements as i told you before due to seasonality factor used to adjust data made it look better last year than it really was now the real numbers coming out. maria: but on the other hand chris, election years are usually good years for the stock market does that play into your thinking. >> it does, we think still some room, despite all after this reality the equities market so concentrating magnificent 7 did everything last year there are some value stocks we think still have -- a bull market somewhere we think val stocks in spite of i agree what gerry said dark clouds, on the horizon particularly retail but in spite of that we think -- you know -- o hope springs he alternatival we think opportunity. >>. cheryl: bring up something i was reading a piper sandler report are this morning about labor market piper sandler making a argument labor market

not as strong as appears we get jobs reports all the time basically there are saying in new report, is that you are going to see recessions in have states that basically blue states, california, new york going to see recessions in those states more red states not in recession the population fled to, so the jobs numbers are being, kind of held up in bodily strd by the states where everyone like think about florida, texas, so we may not have a national recession don't walk the it any more but state-by-state recessionary environment that is also obviously, bad for economy does not discipline bullishes the market is showing. maria: great point in terms of looking specific states where vulnerabilities are, stephanie i know yooufsh negative on this market expecting investors to catch up with your thinking here but not happening, are so far.

are there areas that you think are places to hide if in fact we do see a broad sell-off as investors recognize that this economy has some serious cracks in it? >> well, i am bullish on energy. geopolitical, and woke -- [laughter] or antiwoke reasons, so that is an area. but, you know, my primary core position has been gold throughout. and kind of dovetail off something else you will doing last said earlier relates to conversation around untenable sayings that we have i believe the balance sheet is going to be where action is markets aren't focused enough on that everyone is so squarely focused one who cutting rates how much, i think the balance sheet is the bigger story in

the longer term for sure,because there is just no way that fed can continue qt, but indeed will have to pause and re-up qe there is no other way that we can sustain the treasury markets other than having fed go back to becoming marginal buyer capitol flowsor foreign creditors where action is going to be i think devastating consequences for the u.s. dollar why i am long gold to say nothing of it being sort of an antirisk, asset so that is -- that is where i would be, i want to quickly if i might, add to cheryl's point on state and local situation because i have been watching state and local tax receipts they are negative year-on-year you have seen many states likec from surplus is to deficit in blink of eye tax rates going up in those states many states already

talking about that will accelerate the flight and jobs trends, transfer from those states, to the red states that people are fleeing to so i think we will see those trends accelerate especially if economy slows or much maria: wow, that's a great point. and, doug, i wasn't even thinking about the state-level taxes because i was focused on the president's $7 trillion plus budget and his ask of $a 5.5 or, as you say is, $7 trillion in new taxes. >> yeah. one of the things that was a big surprise was that a lot of states managed to cut their taxes during covid, and that was due to the enormous amount of money that got shoveled into the states from the federal budget. we're now seeing all that reverse, and that's going to be real pressure on the states. their budgets are tight. they've got a lot of spending promises they've got to a meet. that's part of the picture that just says people are going to get hit from every direction,

higher estate taxes, high inflation, their disposable income's not growing withing as fast. it's not a great outcome for the consumer. that has been the linchpin of the growth so far is. maria: yeah. it's important to focus on that consumer. and, jerry, your thoughts in terms of what's most important that we need to continue to look at the right metrics in terms of what's telling the story of the consumer. >> look, it's absolutely slowing, it's been slowing for several months. they even revised, you may have noticed, the january numbers down in the latest, in this release, and no one's talked about that. i also see automobile sales, they're barely up, and that's on a real basis. you think about the fact that cars certainly cost more than a year ago, we're all over that restocking phenomenon where automobile sales were driving part of the growth we were seeing in the economy. it's a very different environment. inflation is breaking the back of the american consumer. all the money has to go to food and has to go to necessities x

there isn't a lot left over. maria: yeah. >> you know, it's not like the end of the world, but it's a very tough period. maria: mark, these are the essentials. talking about food and oil. >> yeah. and, you know, stephanie mentioned, you know, tax receipts being down, cheryl mentioned the issues with the labor reports. i mean, when you look at all these things that are going, there's certainly a big issue between main street and wall street just as stephanie mentioned. i mean, look at small businesses. every single day that nvidia's making a new high, small businesses around the country are struggling. small business optimism came in earlier this week at 89.4. it bottomed at 89.0 at the depths of covid. small with businesses are incredibly pessimistic. small business hiring plans have father-in-law off a cliff. so -- fallen off a cliff. you take all that stuff, and when small businesses employ if roughly 50 of the work force, there's a big difference between main street and wall street. maria: and what's going to

really hurt is an increase in regulations. that that's potentially coming, chris. >> it could be catastrophic, no question about it. any kind of debt service for a small business, everybody's looking to trim their -- tonight up their work force. put regulation on op of that -- top of that, and this could spell significant downward pressure for the economy if going forward. more more so, doug, this climate change agenda wherer x-ing fossil fuels, jamming electric vehicles down everybody's throats, it's got a two-pronged strategy here because it's not just the fact that you're eliminating the oil independence of america, but you're also adding on lots of new rules for corporate america. >> an enormous regulatory burden. as you know, we track this as the american action forum. the biden administration has put in place $450 billion of regulatory costs already. an unbelievable pace, faster than anyone. and if they follow their plans in the first quarter of 2024,

they'll add another $250 billion. it's astonishing. this is an enormous if headwind to growth, and no one seems to notice it. maria: yeah. it's an important point. great conversation, everybody. i so appreciate everybody's time. thank you so much to jerry, stephanie, doug, mark, chris and cheryl. thank you, everyone. we are 30 minutes away from the opening bell for a thursday. let's check markets here, we continue to see a rally underway despite these hotter than expected inflation firms. -- numbers. the dow up 113, nasdaq up 38, s&p 500 higher by 9.25 as bitcoin hangs around all-time highs, pulling back from yesterday and earlier in the week but still at $3 73,000 -- 73,000 on bitcoin. have a great day, everybody. "varney & company" picks it i now -- picks it up now. stu, take it away. stuart: everyone's looking at inflation so -- to see where the fed will go with rates. all right. in the last year, producer