neil: time for some really good perspective on everything going on. for that i turn to charles payne. hey, charles. charles: hey, neil. i'm charles payne. this is making money. embarrassed and defiant jay powell says the fed will engineer a soft landing as we quell inflation. a message that has flown under the radar, folks this will have huge i implications foreour livs beyond the stock market, can he pull it off. why back-to-back rallies are the ultimate buy signal.

irans may be pumping oil in negotiations with the u.s. as part of nuclear deal you about couldn't we avoid enriching another tyrant by turning on the taps here at home? all that and so much more on "making money". ♪. charles: a new jay powell emerged jed in front of the house finance committee. the fed chairman, he made his move to get past that transitory fiasco by laying out more clarity on plans to hike rates and whittle down the balance sheet. he removed the guessing game. we know now he is in favor of hiking the rates, beginning the rate hiking cycle by affirming a 25 basis-point hike but took it a step further by saying the fed can land a soft landing. the fed shifts gears from faster growth to much slower growth without crashing into recession or something even worse. one thing when this all plays out from natural changes in the

economy, the business cycle. it is a whole another kettle of fish when the slowing of the economy comes from the federal reserve. green green actually pulled it off in 1995, which earned him the nickname the maestro. on the other hand, paul volcker, face it he didn't try. the inflation was running so rampant he had to crush the economy. something that i strive for i think all the fed folks strife for. i cannot remember a fed chairman, chairperson, saying out loud they would engineer a soft landing. they probably all want to do it, golly to have the guts to say it. of course pulling it off would be admirable but is it probable? i want to bring in chief economist from the conference board, dana peterson. can powell pull this off considering all the obstacles, considering how hot inflation is and the big question, what happens if the fed goes too far?

>> fed has the potential but there are a lot of challenges that the get is going to face. first of all just think about potential. on the positive side the u.s. economy came off of a very strong year last year. we're looking at growth maybe, three, 3 1/2% year on year for 2022. it could look at quarterly growth probably in the two to 2 1/2% range. that including some rate hikes. that is a robust for a economy as mature as the u.s. when we look at challenges, it is really about how far inflation goes. certainly how the crisis in eastern europe affects inflationary pressures globally and at home. charles: in the meantime we have seen consumer confidence pull back. really it pulled back considerably if you go back to last july. expectations in the most recent report was seen as very vulnerable. here's the thing, covid-19 was a summer deal. that is fading a way. is what is happening only about inflation or could there be other factors at play we don't

talk about a lot like political factors? >> sure. in our last survey, the conference board has it the own measure of confidence. it turned out yes, people were a little bit less optimistic but in general they were still looking forward to buying things like cars and homes. big issues on their minds included interest rates rises and also inflation. certainly people are very concerned about how higher prices eat away at their incomes. even certainly how rising interest rates might affect their willingness to buy big-ticket items like cars and appliances. maybe even splurge on a vacation. charles: you mentioned eastern europe. how do you see this russian invasion playing out? and of course when i'm talking these confidence numbers i'm referencing the conference board numbers which i think is the best report out there that covers this. how do you think that is going to -- >> thank you. charles: how do you think that will impact the next round of

numbers you guys publish? >> sure. well certainly we're looking at the shocks to prices. so certainly oil prices are reaching heights that we've never seen before. potentially we could get up to 110, 125, worst-case scenario, 150. we could, we're also seeing prices for food, for agricultural products, given the fact both russia and ukraine are big producers of grains. then there are metals. metals prices are also on the up rise again given the fact both of those countries do export metals. so when you fold all those things together, those pricing shocks that is going to feed through supply chains and certainly through the products that people buy every day. so inflationary pressures are probably going to rise amid this crisis. certainly if prices rise too insensitive -- intensively

consumers will take a step back. charles: this morning early rally, who knows, but these rallies fizzle but the fizzle when the pmi report came out t was well below consensus. what caught my eye, employment slipped to contraction from expansion. that will be tomorrow's jobs report, will people take up the job openings? what are the thoughts on the labor market where you have up to 11 million jobs effectively going begging? >> i think we're getting closer and closer to full employment if we're not already there. certainly it will be more difficult to find people to hire. really a lot of the gains that we need to see in employment mr. in the services sectors that have been held back by the pandemic. certainly many people were not able to travel or weren't comfortable going to restaurants. certainly as restrictions are lessened around the country, people feel more comfortable engaging in those types of

activities there will be very strong demand, but again, strong demand for workers but limited supply, again, because many people already are working. then you have folks who are retired, and are not just coming back. charles: yeah. >> we will probably see smaller employment gains going forward. doesn't mean the economy is necessarily worse. charles: let's hope so. dana, we covered a lot. i appreciate it. thank you very much. >> thank you. >> would like to bring in larry glazer and gina bolden. larry, a soft landing. it sounds as hard as the old triple lindy with the rodney dangerfield classic "back to school." do you think they can pull it off? >> the fed's credibility is on the round. this is turning out to be anything but the transitory inflation the fed's chairman actually predicted t looks more and more like washington and the fed completely missed these price increases so they're

chasing them from behind. they're losing credibility with the american people. see it in the spike in the misery index and decline in consumer confidence. at the end of the day you forget about sticking the landing, charles. they will belly-flop. talking about rodney dangerfield movies, look like the bad foursome in "caddyshack" than anything in a good rodney dangerfield movie. they need to regroup. they need to demonstrate confidence and leadership, something missing in washington right now and clearly missing from the fed based on the most recent testimony. charles: gina, speaking about getting no respect, powell blew it big time. professional managers are concerned the fed will have a policy mistake. how confident are you? are you anymore confident than larry is they won't blow this thing? >> powell is not between a rock and a hard place. he is between rock and a couple of hard places.

covid was one problem. now the russia-ukraine conflict is another but if you think the fed is behind the eight ball that you need, you need to invest in stocks to combat inflation. if you think it is going to be a soft landing, then you need to be in stocks. so for long-term investors the answer is the same. that is why we're overweight equities. charles: so powell does have one believer. it is in the white house. in fact yesterday jared bernstein was saying president biden is confident that america can avoid stagflation and get the soft landing. gina, if we can get oil under control, for instance, is it possible we can avoid stagflation which seems to be a real legitimate risk every single day? >> we don't see all the components of stagflation. sure economic growth slowed a little bit but we probably see, as your previous guest just said, 3 1/2% gdp growth this

year. we'll get growth from private equity investors investment. leading economic indicators, there is a whole list i could run off are very strong. jobless claims came out this morning were extremely low. durable goods orders were strong. the credit markets are strong. retail sales is high. consumers are strong and they make up 70% of gdp. charles: right. >> so there is a lot of positives that can help us offset the, offset the impact of inflation and the ukraine conflict. we don't see the economy stalling. charles: but, larry, you know reports this morning iran was negotiating maybe to produce more oil to help slow down the crude oil spike. we were somewhere, i don't want to say 115, i know 112, 111. >> yeah. charles: this means the administration is really desperate but again, i have to

bring this up, you know, will they do anything to unlock america's production potential? it seems crazy to enrich another tyrant. >> this is totally crazy and the market is being held hostage by energy prices right now f we're relying on iran to solve our economic prices we have bigger fish to fry and we need a long-term energy policy. it is interesting, charles, talk about the state of the union address, there was so much talk about other things except energy independence. of course energy is global. it is priced globally. sourced globally. independence is local. that is something we can control. we always tell investors, charles, focus what you can control. charles: right. >> we can't control the conflict in europe. we can control energy independence here. it will solve a lot of problems. give credibility to the country and small businesses who are worried about the future right now. that is the piece that is missing. the spr, releasing the spr, this is really a gimmick, it doesn't have long lasts effect. what about food spr?

russia ukraine are food basket t will drive up prices this summer. food independence we can control in this country. take advantage of what we have to offer. charles: larry, real quick, you mentioned investors what they can and cannot control. how do they get through this rough patch in the market? >> we need to acknowledge the geopolitical situation has changed. there is a tightening cycle going on for a whole host of reasons. we need to recognize that. some things do better in tightening cycle. this will end. back half of the year we'll be through the impact and also end of midterm elections which should be a bullish catalyst for the markets. be patient for this period. it willing very challenging. it feels worse because volatility was so low, government giving out checks and keeping volatility suppressed. two years of volatility in two months. it is rough. we'll get past it. don't give up on long-term growth. own dividends to get you through the period if you need

stability. charles: gina, you say you have to to be long stocks to combat this. is there any particular sector or style you like most? >> real estate, financials, charles. i overweight stocks. that is the message to investors. charles: larry, gina, thank you both very much. i'm glad you understood all the rodney dangerfield references. amazon, i doesn't know if you saw this yesterday. they are bailing out on 67 brick and mortar stores. they just got them. best buy the best performer in the market today. there is lot of money to be made on consumer spending. but it ain't easy to do it. we'll show how how to read these new tea leaves. with my hectic life you'd think retirement would be the last thing on my mind.

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charles: so yet another early morning rally fizzled. this in part to the grilling of jay powell took. by the way from both sides of the aisle today but the biggest diss came from alabama senator richard shelby praised tough actions taken by paul volcker toe crush inflation. then he posed this question to

jay powell. >> you're prepared to do what it takes without any reservation to protect price stability? >> yes. >> that would be a departure what you've done. thank you very much. charles: ouch. golly, that was a heck of a put-down. put him down as a maybe. joining me from laffer tengler, their ceo nancy tengler. golly, richard shelby pulling no punches. jay powell under huge pressure to act decisively. here is the thing, if he only kicks it off with a 25 basis-point hike, is he already blowing it out the gate? >> yes. charles, the policy make has already occurred. i say that with all due respect. it's a very difficult job. you and i were alive when paul volcker was a fed chair. i was a portfolio manager toward the end of his career in the fed. this was a guy who was steely, determined, he didn't flinch.

powell said in the same testimony, honestly we have the tools and we will use them to get inflation uncontrol. why haven't they used them? i just find the whole thing bizarre. and so i think we have to kind of step back to say with cpi at 7 1/2% and ppi at nine 1/2, pce the fed uses 5.2, look at sticky inflation with the atlanta fed at 4.2, a 25 basis-point hike, it is immaterial. charles: yeah. >> and so i think, i think they have lost their way. i don't know. charles: it's not the stuff of paul volcker, that's for sure. now, meanwhile i saw a great chart, timber of fidelity put it together. he put great charts together. overlay current trends to mid 1960s, mid-1970s. under scores the big inflation spike. for the most part the market moved higher as inflation moved

higher. but there was one small dip from '68 to 70. even as inflation rails like this the market could go higher? >> absolutely. what derails the market is recession. and i don't necessarily think we have a policy risk from the fed on recession. they would have to raise very quickly. it doesn't appear to be the case but look at the yield curve. it flattened pretty dangerously, two year, 10-year spread is a little over 30 basis points. so the market is skeptical. i think that is what we have to pay attention to. stocks respond to earnings. the real encouraging thing we got out of the earnings season is the massive amount of dividend increases and volume of dividend increases. that tells you managements are pretty optimistic about the future. we still think you want to be in stocks. we're mid-cycle. you still want to take risk here. it is not the time to be defensive. charles: i want to pick up on that because speaking of earnings, it has really been the retailers, right? and what is interesting, late

yesterday amazon will shut down 68 brick-and-mortar stores. we saw a major miss at foot locker. that stock down 30% in one day. this week, you have had nordstrom, you have had target, best buy today in part to higher dividend and buyback. you mentioned costco last time on the show. i know you like the space. do you like costco or any other names to take advantage which feels like a niche thing? if you're in the right retailer you make a lot of money if you're in the wrong one, watch out below. >> that is right, charles. koas are increasing dividend 100% and nordstrom will reinstate. if you're not right space you're really well-positioned. we do still like costco. it's a little toppy here on forward multiple it is 41 times. on our relative yields and relative price-to-earnings ratio it is approaching the sell range. we get earnings today. if you get any pullback in the stock i think it's a good entry

point. they still have 91% renewal every year, four billion in membership revenues. the margins while they contracted some, still pretty healthy compared to some retailers. i think you stick with costco if you own it. get a chance to buy it. we like target a lot. it is one of our largest holdings. the company announced a great earnings, great guidance and approval for 20 to 30% dividend increase next quarter. like you said there are definitely good places to be. charles: nancys one of your themes going back to last year i agree a thousand percent, the cap-ex boom bonanza going on but it is bifurcated, right? we're seeing old cap-ex, building factories that is plummeting but the new cap-ex surrounding technology is ramping higher. i have less than a minute to go. do you still like that investment thesis and what are

your favorite names? >> we do. of course we love the cloud. that is not being rewarded lately. we think it is huge, enormous total addressable market. i think for your viewers, one of the places they feel safe is cybersecurity for obvious reasons. we own three of those names. palo alto networks, fortnet and microsoft has 15 billion-dollar cybersecurity business within their cloud business and it is probably the cheapest of the group. those are names you pick away at. you hold on, you wait for pullbacks. they have held up pretty nicely even in the nasdaq selloff. charles: yee. >> so i think that is a place to focus. semis you can't brush your teeth without a chip involved in the process. so i think the supply is still lower than demand and it is going to take a long time for these foundries to come on. we have three coming into arizona. it will take a while. charles: wow. everybody is going to arizona. save me a spot. i want to get down there one day. tennessee, arizona, everywhere

that is hot. thanks a lot, nancy. appreciate it. >> thanks, charles. charles: as russia moves further and further into ukraine the question what is vladmir putin's ultimate plan? i get the privilege to ask one of the smartest historians on the planet nile ferguson. markets holding up with all the political uncertainty but should you be investing? we have some answers for you right after the break. of the . all they need is a bike and a full tank of gas. their only friend? the open road. i have friends. [ chuckles ] well, he may have friends, but he rides alone. that's jeremy, right there! we're literally riding together. he gets touchy when you talk about his lack of friends. can you help me out here? no matter why you ride, progressive has you covered with protection starting at $79 a year. well, we're new friends. to be fair. eh, still.

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charles: market has rallied, 80% of the names were higher in that session, only to see the subsequent session maybe 20, 25% were higher. that is what is happening. we're not having big follow up days. many have been outright disasters. is this seesawing back and forth, obviously take as toll on investors, you get to the edge of your seat, it doesn't happen? i think we need to break out

really soon or would-be bulls throw in the towel and everybody gives up the ghost. we have erin gibbs. erin, you pointed out market mark overreacting to the russian invasion, given all the things that happened since then, crude oil going through the roof, is that the case? >> we correct ad lot of actions since february 17th. we're almost today looks like we'll come close back to that level when i was on last and we're already up 3 1/2% since the low from last thursday. so, you know, just like we talked, these reactions to wars and sort of exogenous events can be very fast and i think we're already seeing most of that already being flushed out. charles: mark, i can recall you becoming more constructive with respect to the market but how does you know, how are you you dealing with, how should our audience deal with the unknowns,

unknowns out there which still include ukraine and of course the federal reserve? >> yeah. charles, there are definitely a lot of unknowns but there are some knowns. one known is that we're going to see higher rates and the fed chairman said today, yesterday, rather, 25 basis points is what he is going to recommend. who knows, maybe they will even go with 50. and if you look back over all the different rate environments you can see significant moves in a matter of 12 to 18 months. that is one thing you should know, who makes money in that environment? financials. one of the few sectors out there that with rising rate environments financials will do well. guess what? their valuation is great compared to everything out there especially sectors like tech. that is one thing you know. the other thing you know, we have a war going on over there in ukraine with one of the countries that creates 10, 10 to 15% of world's energy. tough look in there, listen, maybe i should own energy.

there is a lot of instability, you see that through the price of crude. those are some thinks you can control, you know for sure that will happen. i think putting money in the market those are some sectors you should be in. charles: i want to pick up on that, erin. we have historic correlations. they're starting crazy divergence. buying yields and oil prices trade typically together. now there is a huge disparity between the two. something tells me something is overdone, bond yields have to come down or oil prices have to come down. it is hard for me to chase. i've been selling most of our oil stocks into strength. >> yeah. you know, i regret not looking at the energy trade. i thought when it was already up 23% for the year-to-date, i thought that was overbout. certainly now up another 10%, now up 31. again it feels overbout but those disconnections they don't have to trade in tandem and

particularly when you're dealing with extreme events, they can trade, you know, in different directions for quite some time. as a matter of how long are you willing to wait before they revert tote mean. charles: okay. >> i think, energy, given we're already in a inflationary environment there is still some room for it to go. certainly today it looks a little overbout. i like to see a bit more of a pullback if you're going to get in. it does seem so extreme. obviously in the headlines, you never want to buy something while it is in the headlines. charles, right. >> if you're selling into strength that is exactly what you should be doing, taking profits now. longer term that is place to be. charles: let me pick up longer term, mark you as well, the vix is up there elevated obviously. historically when it is above 30 where it is now, where it has been, the next 12 months on

average see monster rally, 26% on average. how much stock do you put in something like that then, erin? >> you know, i actually have done a lot of studies with the vix. historically, 60% of the time, 40% of the time you may get much more muted uptrend. the overall trend is always up in the 12 months following. the vix has been elevated since february 14th. we're seeing a lot of days where it ilks over 30. we'll continue to see volatility where there are questions about the fed, interest rates, inflation. the conflict right now is only adding to it. i certainly feel we are going to end the year up over the next 12 months based more on the fundamentals rather than the vix. charles: right. but mark, also, you know when it is elevated like this it speaks to a sense of panic and a sense of panic does create opportunity. beyond the knowns you say let's

take advantage of, look beyond this, 12 months, how do you feel where this market will be? >> it really depends on inflation. i'm sorry to say that, but the fed has a big job to do combating it. if we can't get a grapple on inflation it will affect everything. got to remember 70% of the u.s. can't afford these gas pump hikes at the pump to afford their medical bills and their food at the same time. that will all affect stocks. so inflation is, is not taken under control by the fed with their policies you may not have this great second half some people are repredicting. charles: erin, you sitting on a lot of cash? what are you buying? >> i have as little cash as possible. the fear offers a lot of opportunity. if you don't have an immediate cash need i think these are some of the best times to put your money to work. and i have been looking at

buying some of the beaten up, previously expensive growth stocks -- [inaudible] i have also, you know, added a little more of my mid-caps because i think noted many times i think the mid-caps are really oversold and great value opportunities. >> i think they look pretty attractive as well. cash is still trash according to erin. mark, erin, thou both very much. appreciate it. speaking of growth stocks there are signs they're ready to make a pretty big comeback. we'll show you some of the signals for that. also the world has gone from pandemic to war in the blink of an eye. niall ferguson says the dichotomy between natural and man-made disasters is a false one and he will break it down. he i next. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq,

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charles: president biden announcing moments ago he

putting fresh sanctions on russia, particularly 50 russian oligarchs, families and associates. ban to travel to the united states. one of the oligarchs is on the fbi's most-wanted list for interfering with the 2016 elections. meanwhile because of all of this, the turmoil there, the world markets all reflecting angst, risk, potentially new realities when we come out of this. here is one thing we do know, the world changes because the nature of people really doesn't change. i can't think of anyone who really is better on this planet, understanding the nexus of the two, my next guest, historian niall ferguson. senior fellow at the hoover institute and senior fellow at bellow international affairs at harvard. author of a number of favorite books. these are my favorites. civilization, rise and fall of the american empire. how britain made the modern world. war of the world. been far too long, welcome to

the show. let's begin with the russian invasion, your thoughts on vladmir putin, what his goals out and likely outcome will be? >> thanks for the plugs for my books, much appreciated. i turn to the serious subject of war in ukraine. what putin set out to do prevent ukraine stablizing as democracy oriented toward the west. ukrainians want to join the european union and nato. for putin that is a red line. he will not let a country linked to russia for so long let that democracy linked to western institutions. that is why he went to war for him. it is not going well for him. it was supposed to be a blitzkrieg, a lightning war. he expected to be in control of kyiv by now and deposed volodymyr zelenskyy ukraine's historic president. it hasn't worked out that way. he may still succeed but it will

be a very messy, destructive war. the price he is paying economically is much higher one and daunting than he may have expected. charles: i know it may feel like too little too late, in the postmortem, what do we say about the west, particularly the united states, a lot quicker? all the amazing sanctions taking a bite out of russia, why wouldn't they have been done to stop some of this? >> it is pretty clear sanctions are not a very effective deterrent because joe biden and other western leaders threatened very severe sanctions if putin did this and it didn't stop him and imposing the sanctions, even that is unlikely to stop the russian army in its tracks. sanctions can cause mayhem in the economy but as long as the trucks of fuel and soldiers of bullets and planes with bombs the war goes on. that is what history teaches us. there were two options which

were viable prior to the outbreak of war last week. one was to admit that ukraine was never going to join nato, to neutralize it as finland was neutral during the first cold war. i think this is the second cold war we're in right now. you could have essentially negotiated that deal with putin. charles: right. >> that would have required the ukrainians to accept nato membership was off the table. that wouldn't have been easy. that was an option. the other option i think was a better option, make sure the ukrainians were well-equipped to deter a russian attack. we failed to do that. in fact the biden administration slowed down shipments of arms to ukraine. took sanctions off the nord stream 2 pipeline. basically signaled that we weren't going to fight for ukraine. the most that putin had to reckon with was sanctions. the result? a huge war, biggest in europe since 1945 with an unforeseeable consequences that i think is a diplomatic failure. charles: in your most recent

book, "doom the politics of catastrophe." chapter 3, rinos, black swans, dragon kings, explain how it applies to what we're going through now? >> well some disasters come completely out of left field. almost nobody sees them coming. and others kind of rumble towards you like a gray rhino coming across the serengeti. i think the russian invasion of ukraine was one of those gray rhinos. it was not hard to see coming. i wrote a piece on january the 2nd which began, war is coming. i think what is interesting though, as soon as something like this strikes, it suddenly become as black swan for investors. it is amazing to me how few people saw the massive, massive short opportunity there was in russian assets and currency. because it was clear, putin was

telegraphing his intentions that the army was being prepared to invade the country. charles: right. >> markets remain in denial until the tanks were really across the border. that made it a black swan. in fact it was no such thing. it was perfectly straightforward to predict. charles: you recently wrote president biden has a few weak to avoid becoming jimmy carter. did that state of the union help or hurt with respect to that? >> it was a better effort than carter's famous malaise tv address. charles: that is a low bar [laughter]. >> i thought it was strange in a couple of ways. first, to acknowledge the inflation problem which i think is the democrats biggest domestic worry right now and then to outline policies that will manifestly make that inflation problem worse, including of course imposing really tough sanctions on russia. if we go to the next level which i think we're going to, which is to impose sanctions on russian oil exports and gas exports maybe too, then the inflation

problem gets worse. so i don't think there is any doubt looking back to the 1970s, you start off with an inflation problem which is failure of monetary and fiscal policy. then a war comes along. charles: right. >> inflation expectations really take off. that is something the biden administration really does risk right now. charles: believe me, there is still time to urge americans to lower the thermostat and wear sweaters. i have a minute to go. i want to squeeze it in, today and yesterday, jay powell, testifying between the house and the senate but the whole thing seems to be a pretense to beat up on bitcoin and cryptocurrency. the biden administration, they will look into it. on stepsably to stop oligarchs from circumventing sanctions but i couldn't help learning about lessons and-cent of money and innovations topple empires. in many ways i think crypto fits the bill. what are your thoughts? >> i'm. more pro crypto of the administration which loves to

talk about regulation without ever clarifying what the regulations are ever going to be. i think at the moment crypto is probably doing more to help ukraine. there are significant sums going in crypto to ukraine than helping any oligarchs. as a way around sanctions, bitcoin is a nonstarter. the way russians will get around sanctions with chinese central bank currency i would predict. i wish the biden administration would study up, crypto is something the united states can use to its advantage, rather than thinking we should close it down and copy with the chinese digital bank currency. that is the way they want to go. charles: powell seems afraid, elizabeth warren, white house, they will go full press to try to derail the digital revolution. thank you so much. always appreciate your time. >> thank you. charles: folks, we'll be right back.

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charles: the markets, we know trading very violently in narrow range. the january 24th session i keep talking about i think was a bottom. s&p, all other indices, rather, they have staved off free falls but have been higher and trapped. here is the problem with all the false starts. monster rallies that seem to signal the worse is over leading

to flat sessions i think takes a little bit out of folks. my next guest though, not him. he called this pullback. he has been very cautious on these markets. i want to see if he changed his mind. key advisor group eddie ghabour. eddie, you're looking for a move lower with all the chaos, is that still in the cards for you? >> unfortunately it is, charles. one of the things we've been positioning for since the fourth quarter last year is really the second quarter setup for this year. now that oil has really gone through the roof, i think that will be the nail in the coffin unfortunately for consumer spending. as we look at the data on earnings, try to compare second quarter from last year, earnings revenue growth will really plummet. gdp will come under consensus in my opinion. by the way we have a fed that will tighten into this environment. again that, the risk/reward is just not there for our clients. i do believe, even if we get a bear market bounce in the next couple weeks, that the legs are

going could continue to go down. market goes lower. we're only halfway are. >> eddie, what do you see to change your mind, when you sense the worst is over? are there certain parameters or metrics for you? >> there are couple things. from the fed perspective we have to see the fed change course. i don't think most people are positioned for the slowdown we see happening in the second quarter. of course the fed changing course is number one. number two, really getting to where we think the bottom in economic data is going to be. we do think that will be in the second quarter. so we believe we'll have fantastic buying opportunities. we think it will come in the third or early fourth quarter of this year. i'm on here saying buy the dip like i was last year. just not today. charles: all right. meantime i have 30 seconds. do you hold a lot of cash or play what works in the down market game? >> both. we've got cash. we have staples. we have utilities. look you can play treasurys too. when the 10-year went over two,

we started adding long-term treasurys. that paid handsomely. even on up days, there is low volume on up days. a lot of defensive names outperformed on some of those days. you can still make money in the market. we're just being cautious in our positioning. charles: you've been cautious. you've been spot on, my friend. thank you very much. folks we'll be right back. >> thank you. with access to financial advice, tools and a personalized plan that helps you build a future for those you love. vanguard. become an owner. alright, so...cordless headphones, you can watch movies through your phone? and y'all got electric cars? yeah. the future is crunk! (laughs) anything else you wanna know? is the hype too much? am i ready? i can't tell you everything. but if you want to make history, you gotta call your own shots.

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charles: all right, folks. tomorrow we get what's normally the most important economic data release of any given month, and that's the jobs report. since it started, the pandemic, economists cannot get their hands around this number. the consensus has been so off the mark. just consider over the last six months the actual number and what the experts thought it would be. [laughter] they have been off by a country mile. i am rooting for a big beat, i also love to see wages -- well, i think they're going to be solid, but they've gone up so much, and we know small businesses in particular are desperate for workers, and there are increasing signs that a lot of that free money finally is starting to failed. now, this is why -- to fade. this is why, as usual, participation, to me, is the most important metric within this report. we need people to hit the bricks, power this economy. also we need folks to dissuade this government from trying to put even more dependency

programs out there. after decades of decline, there were sharp reversals in 2018 and 2019. the participation came roaring back. then came covid-19. participation more recently though, as you can see on the screen, is beginning to rep bound. but, of course, we're still well below those february 2020 levels. now, when it comes to the jobs report, i think this time around good news will be good news for the stock market. but this market needs good news out of ukraine as well. before russia shifts into another gear and moves deeper into cities like kyiv and others, we need to see something, because at some point this war probably will be built into the market, and we won't talk about it as much on financial markets even as the human toll mounts and becomes even more heartbreaking. overall, remember all the good stuff from corporate earnings aha we've been seeing, none of that's built into the stock market. at some point it will all mart -- matter. it's smart that we are as the

market and as humanity paying attention to russia, but tomorrow we're going to refowx focus -- refocus on the economy and the jobs market. i think it's going to be good, but even when it comes to the experts, it's anyone's guess. all right. we had a mini c. p. effect. we're fading. liz liz claman, i'm ready to watch you for thest haas hour of trying. liz: i'm not surprised though. that has been the word of the day, up, down, all around. the battle lines drawn and blown up by the minute in ukraine but also on wall street as the russians press the offensive. market bulls and bears battling on all fronts. the dow turned negative moments ago to join the s&p and the nasdaq as oil slips from levels not seen since 2008. the war in ukraine raging as the white house adds new sanctions today on vladimir putin's closest friends while foreign expert -- policy experts worry that the battle could spiral out of control. former national security agency