concerns russian society now and what we have to understand with you and what we constantly prove to our western partners, the problem of the russian-ukrainian war and the problem of russia for ukraine and the world, it is not exhausted by the putin regime, it is rooted in deep, deep, such immanent features of the russian society, changing putin's surname to mishustin or... to patrushev or to sobyanin, even, will not bring anything fundamentally new, it will not make ukrainians and other neighbors of russia feel the federation is completely safe, because russia is a predictable and non-aggressive country. unfortunately, this will not happen. you and i actually returned to russia, as it was known all the years of its existence in one way or another. as

a threat, and accordingly, we as ukrainian society and as a state and our partners in the european union not only have to accept this train of the 90s, this raid, this is an unnatural situation in which russia was, it has finally passed and we will return everything returned to russia itself is a threat mr. oleksandr, based on your experience, i would like to assess the fact that now the russian military-political leadership is introducing a kind of new social contract, that is, i had the opportunity to see certain studies by russians there, and they say that the essence of this new contract should be , so that the society or the population of the russian federation perceives the war as an ordinary thing, that it is a normal component, and to limit... the impact of the war on the so-called

demobilized population, that is, in fact , the population that does not want to sacrifice anything, that is it should not be touched, the war should remain in such a direction that does not affect the population of the russian federation, and in this way it is possible to prepare the conditions for a long-term war of attrition without any particular risks for the russian political regime, i would like you ... the question is how much such a concept is effective as far as it is viable, should we perceive it as, well, this is such a new systemic risk, as in general this new social contract, although i do not completely agree that this is such a social contract, how to treat it in these current in reality, you asked a very multidimensional question, it really is the main dilemma of the russian regime, i.e.... for their

survival, they have to maintain this eternal war and they cannot return even on february 23, 24, 22, but at the same time, they must adhere to the social contract that they introduced themselves, starting from the early 2000s, that is, you do not get involved in politics, we support you. standard of living, after the 14th year they also, they raised the rates, i mean the regime, that is, they said, we are giving you a little bit of greatness, and you also do not actually feel it, this is after the annexation of crimea, the beginning of the creeping occupation and the attempt to occupy donbas, but after the beginning of the full-scale invasion, they actually this social contract, which introduced themselves. and

violated, that is, they, that is, the population does not get involved in politics, they keep their part of the contract, but life worsens and not just life worsens, but this very population is sent to die, is sent, mobilized forcibly and is sent, well, in fact, to the trenches, and this is on the one hand, on the other hand, but... we need this population, since the blitzkrieg has not ended, we need to somehow motivate it, in addition to economic ones, we need some incentives, well , ideological, intangible ones, and here this the dilemma is that the so-called svo actually puts people in prison for the war, on the other hand, how will you ideologically motivate people to go to some svo, and we really see this in our research, we are

about ... based on research in russia, we naturally ask questions about perception by the russians of the war and their understanding of the goals of this war, and here the russians are really going... well, this is such a dissonance, because we constantly see this dilemma of russian propaganda, the russian regime, and the evolution of russian propaganda, and even z-patriots, you know, the nuclear electorate, who are there for putin and for victory, they are confused about why this all started, as a rule, it boils down to, well, for us , the west opposes the west, but this dilemma, that is, on the one hand... it is the svo, on the other hand , it is a people's war, for the survival of russia, it indeed, we see that the regime is trying to balance between material incentives, to participate in the war, and the inadequacy of only

material incentives. and you mentioned research on the territory of the russian federation, you them, i consider them quite unique, because you are looking for such methods of obtaining. information, data that other social services, in particular from ukraine, cannot do. you made data based on the results of the 22nd year, did you have a plan to assess the history and state of russian society based on the results of the 23rd year, did you succeed in this to make based on the results of the 23rd year and what changes are now possible that are so noticeable that you can say about them? well, first of all, what... what did you start your question with regarding the new normality, the new normality, war as a norm, the routinization of war, this really happened, and it really affects the stability of the regime on the one hand, because when we asked at the end of the 22nd year and asked the question

to the russians: name what worries you first of all, it was the war, well, they called it theirs, the war, it doesn’t matter, it’s true... 50% of the first elections called the war without thinking and economic problems were mentioned half as often. now, for these one and a half years of our observations , the numbers are diametrically opposed. economic problems came to the fore. the request to putin, as the elected president, to solve the economic and financial problems of russians came to the fore. the successful completion of the so-called svo is called not in the first place, this is one of the top five, well, problems, tasks for putin, in terms of solving it, and we see that the regime also understands this, they also have their studies, of course, and they are now also

are trying to solve this issue, how, if on the one hand there are economic problems, there is a deterioration in the financial condition of the russians, on the other hand, the war can no longer be an excuse for these... problems, how to explain to the russians what must be tolerated, and we see that another factor is used, the factor of terrorist attacks, the factor of fear and that war is coming to your home. stepping into city hall is just one of the first steps. during this month , this topic came up more than 250,000 times in the russian media, that is, you and i are just this month. capable of this terrorist attack, he was top-five topics and top-five terms in the russian media for these months, these weeks, only these serious floods and the complete incompetence, as always, of the russian authorities and

in their decision, it slightly balanced the discourse and and and that , which was discussed in the russian media sphere, but nevertheless... we see, in fact, every day the russians reported something that they exposed that group, this group was exposed, icons with explosives from european countries, which, of course, were stuffed in ukraine, today in volgograd, it seems, or so in volgograd, like another 17-year-olds the terrorists were exposed and so on and so on, that is, now the russian regime is trying to find an answer. to the fact that, on the one hand , war is routinized, war is the norm, but on the other hand, how to explain why life is getting worse, if everything is according to plan, if we win, if the west is afraid of us, then why are we doing so badly we live, and here they return to the years 99-2000, to the factor and

map of terrorism, and mr. alexander, at that time, the question arises, is this whole story connected with internal twisting? nuts through just right the threat of domestic terrorism, does it somehow affect the mood of, relatively speaking, the russian elites, if we say, well, of this category, that is, or the russian ruling clan. the top, is there a certain tension there, because linguistically speaking, it seems that last year you said that you should not expect any changes or contradictions in the elites, now in which direction is this situation breaking down, because why am i asking, after there was silence during the prigozhina riot, there were reports from yesterday or the day before yesterday that they had arrested one of the deputy ministers there of defense, i think, and this is... a sign of what, what trend, because it was not for nothing, probably they took on shoigu's entourage, are

there any nuances that we should be able to take into account, well, here are two important factors, which three , which still leave me pessimistic that this is some such significant split, first, uh, so far we have little information, we remember when this information appeared, you know, there is pure information. connotations of her evaluation, and some emotional coloring, that is when the information just appeared that this timur ivanov for the minister of defense, they detained him, it was pure information, that is, everyone was in a stupor, i mean the russian propaganda media there, in general, the russian media, they did not understand how to present it, that is, he was simply detained, until it was clear, it is being led here and there, that's all, it is not yet clear how it will be promoted and... so far even we see only assumptions from different sides, but there is no, you know, such a general

line, this is the first, that is, we need more information , more understanding of what narratives will be chosen by russian propaganda, secondly, putin, so to speak, has been re-elected, it is his prerogative to propose a new composition of the government, and a new, new heads of these departments, respectively, in principle... in principle, this can be presented as a personnel planned rotation and send the shoigu to for some dsns, their analogue is somewhere else and the third is a very important position, that is, what exactly did this timur evanok do, he was engaged in construction, construction in all ages and in all countries was a very nice position, and it is really without exaggeration billions of dollars. he is was involved, so to speak, in the reconstruction of the occupied territories in

the same mariupol and not only, in the quartering of soldiers, these are billions of billions of dollars that are not actually accounted for, you can say, well, war, here the coefficients are increased, a state secret, so for now i wouldn't call it a split of the elites and something very serious, we need more information, and again, if you want to replace something... shoigu, then in principle, it's just an excuse, i.e. re-election of putin and reformatting of the government, well, this is quite a legitimate, legitimate reason and a legitimate date for this, and as for the business elites, as for the inner circle, we see that it actually, well, crystallized, it is actually unchanged, and... there they try

to show such a it seems that the fresh blood of this apte alaudinov has been brought to the ministry of defense and that is what he is called, well, it seems to be one of the alternatives to kadyrov regarding the new as the new head of chechnya or a possible watcher from the federal center, but so far so. it's too early to talk about it we do not see a fundamental split yet, and it will be seriously influenced by how putin can or cannot expand his plateau of so-called stability after prigozhin's rebellion and after his so-called re-election, because what seems to be absent in russian society now is very serious protest moods, or some... serious performances or some excesses, this in no way means that there will not be tomorrow or

the day after tomorrow, and the reason for this can be anything, again, because the kremlin regime, putin cannot explain and cannot predict for society when it will all end, and why, if everything goes according to plan, why does life steadily deteriorate? russians and why, for example, for example, there may be the next wave of mobilization, again we have to address this factor as well, 74% of russians, it is for... across all generations, or if we take the generation of 18-30 years old, that is, which in the first priority will be developed, 84 among them, among this age group against the second mass wave of partial mobilization or mobilization, this will also be very important stability factor. mr. oleksandr, thank you very much for your work, for your evaluations, for the time

you devoted to our broadcast and to our viewers . and analysis of russia, we can already see this, a non-governmental organization that analyzes what is happening in russia, and further we will talk about how we should confront this reality, which was created or partially created by the russian federation, which is the most vulnerable in the russian concepts of this systemic distortion of the world, that's what we're talking about we will talk after the commercial information break. there are 10% discounts on jevrofast softcaps at podorozhnyk pam and oskad pharmacies. there are 20% discounts on bizyn at psyllanyk bam and oskad pharmacies. there are discounts on kvit - 15% in podorozhnyk, pam and oskad pharmacies. there are discounts on urulesan of 15% in

the pharmacies psylansky, bam and oskad. the premium sponsor of the national team represents. united by football, stronger together. the football format changes the time of airing. from now on, you can immerse yourself in the atmosphere of football every monday at 22:00. professional analysis. matches, exclusive interviews, goals, saves, emotions, a project for experienced fans as well as for people who appreciate a detached view of football. football format, every monday at 22:00 on espresso tv channel. every week, maria gurska meets with the head of the committee on

foreign affairs of the polish diet , the representative of the polish government for the restoration of ukraine, pawel koval. as always, we talk about the most important things. what is being said about ukraine in the eu, how should we perceive the statements of european politicians and what will our accession to the eu look like in the project close to politics around the world with maria gurska every sunday at 15:30 with a repeat at 22:00 in cooperation with sesttry au. we continue our program "war and weapons" and now hryhoriy lyubovets joins us. he is one of the heads of the communications and content security center. specialists of this center, by the way. received the ivan franko prize for work on how to protect oneself and the country in the conditions of totalitarian information confrontation. this work, a monograph, by the way, is extremely deep, which assesses the risks of the modern world. mr. grigory, i congratulate you, i am glad to see you and hear by the way, good day. with the previous guest, we talked about what is happening in

russia, we talked about the fact that they have, relatively speaking, a new social contract there. i know that you do not support this word social contract in relation to russia, but in any case, i would like to hear your assessment of what is happening now in the russian federation at the current stage, and what we should oppose from our side to those concepts that are now is trying to develop in the russian federation under the leadership of this military-political clique? it must be said here that this topic is huge, but... but i will try to be specific and precise. the first thing i would like to point out is that analyzing putin's regime by video information, or by the content they provide, is very unpleasant and practically,

such a thing that works the other way around. all. all our understanding that analysis is the basis of what we see practically does not work with this mode, why? because they have created an industry that visually makes the reality that they talk about, and the real processes practically work in the other direction, so terms social contract, society, state, this is not all about putin's russian federation, there are a lot of terms. we operate here, and this is precisely our cognitive trap, that is, learning about processes from

inadequate tools, and you ask a funny question, how and what to do about it, well , first of all, to understand and accept what the european parliament did yesterday, in a conditional russian federation. there were no presidential elections, they were recognized as illegitimate at the level of the european parliament. prior to this, parier, almost before the new year, said that after march 17 , there will be no legitimate government in the russian federation. what does it mean that there is no legitimate authority? this means that all institutions are inadequate to international law. and let's remember, the putinites themselves. abandoned international law as a basis for relations with the world several years ago, but they themselves require

all countries to follow this law, this paradox practically shows the scale of the problem you are asking about, so let's talk about it in 10 minutes, you understand, you and i can't, if there are questions... i i will try to answer, well, that is, as i understood, we are now trying to analyze russia from our coordinate system, and russia has already imposed a different model of the world, and in fact, we are forced to act differently, then the question arises, what should we analyze in the actions of the russian federation, and most importantly, how can we counter this russia or the russian corporation in the informational and military spheres. in this regard , you really mentioned the word corporation very correctly, i would refer everyone to the

scientific, by the way, very powerful works of dmitry shusharin, he is a muscovite, but not putinets, he is a scientist, he is such a distinguished personality, and he wrote several works, quite academic, but very... acceptable and simple, it is a pleasure to read them, he tells what the modern regime is, modern muscovy, as we say in our center, and he shows why and what directions of interaction with this e-e state are inadequate to all practices that exist in the modern international world, that is practically... yesterday, not the prime minister, but the foreign minister of great britain, cameron stated that he and great britain cannot return to

international relations with putin's russian federation, practically cameron is correcting his mistake of the 14th year now, but what is very important, again great britain for the first time under... removes the regime of clarity in relation to putin's regime absolutely in the absolute, that this substance is not contractual, it is not a system of international relations, so it must be, well, we are already saying, dismantled, then, mr. grigory, the question arises, relatively speaking, there is a corporation russia is governed by an authoritarian regime on... worked its concepts of change world order, and there is a democratic world, and there is ukraine, which must develop optimal

models of countermeasures, so i would like to hear from you what is in our assets that allows us to really provide a real counterbalance, and maybe even beat the russians there in the information field and including in the military field? here i would say that... first of all, i did not agree on the corporation, the corporatization of the population, which was carried out quite technologically, led to the fact that there, that is, in russia, in the conditional russian federation, there is no society, this it is difficult to realize, but it is so, because each social group was assigned its, as they say... functional cell, and they perform it under pressure, under, by the way, genocidal behavior. the putinists have introduced

genocidal behavior not only in the occupied territories of ukraine, they use it in the territory of the russian federation as well. it is very accurately shown in these natural or climatic disasters, when water flooded entire regions, and that practically the central government and local government do little for people. here is an example, when practically... with their population, the putinites behave not as authorities, not as representatives, let's say, of these social groups, so the topic is precisely that this is a corporate corporation that operates only with the function of pressure, intimidation and survival, it is before you you show, and this is the reality that is difficult.

hide, but very interesting options, how they explain it, we don't have time here now, it's another topic, but what i'm leading to, i'm leading to what you ask, what to do and why us, ukraine really has potential and perspective to teach our partners, to understand what is happening there, and to understand what they are preparing, one of the main positions in... they are not going back, they are preparing the whole world for this kind of future, which will operate with force, and force will replace international law and in general, law and humanity as the basis of relations between people, i.e. the topic of depopulation, the topic of humanity - this is practically the vision of ukraine, ukraine is now in the line of fire, it will show... not

just prowess, heroism and such honorable behavior, it also shows an example in this world that our dying soldiers show higher, the highest category of humanity, because they save with their lives not only their brothers, not only the settlements where they fight, but they practically save ukraine as an environment. space and the space of world statehood, that is why ukraine itself has both doctrinal advantages and visionary advantages, just the ability to hold this civilizational basis of humanity and peace on a global scale, and i would very much like to draw your attention to the fact that these are high, as they say in pathetic terms, now these are terms

about... practical, because we live in a hyper-dynamic world, what happened yesterday is it's already history, as it were, and what will happen tomorrow is our real future, because today's example is very simple: today are the hands of chernobyl, the chernobyl tragedy, but today we are witnesses of the occupation of the zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, if only one was blown up in chernobyl ... this reactor, the zaporizhia nuclear power plant currently has six reactors in cold shutdown mode, what is really happening with these reactors, practically no one knows, not even the magate mission, why, because the putins technological possibilities are not allowed in full mode, and here is an example for you, on the one hand, the history of a world

-class tragedy, on the other hand... let's say, the limit of this tragedy is six reactors, that is , six possible detonations, i understand that these are different reactors, but no one knows, this is a precedent that can be in such states with such behavior for more than two years of occupation of the huge zaporozhye nuclear plant, and therefore this is an example of how today it is simultaneously historical. it is an example of the future, so it is completely different the conditions in which we have to live, act professionally, and the most important thing is to manage, that is, to combine the efforts of our partners from the standpoint of not only today, but tomorrow and the day after tomorrow. well, when we talk about the combination of our efforts and the efforts of our partners, we usually talk recently.