in the fact that johnson will still vote on a bill that has already been approved by the senate. the problem is, the more he drags it out, the less likely it is to get the votes in the house, because just a few weeks ago, when this bill was going through the senate, we were saying the whole problem is johnson, because if he will put this project to a vote, he will... definitely get support. now the situation is not so rosy, and not only for us. the problem is that part of the republicans who could before absolutely feel free to vote for aid to ukraine. it may not do so now, because this issue is becoming toxic for their voters, especially where they listen very seriously to trump, listen to him about credit and listen to him say that we should not give gifts to anyone. some of the democrats who obviously voted for this decision. now they don't want to help israel,

and this is a joint bill, let me remind you, it refers to the united states helping ukraine, israel and taiwan. and the democrats may think that this issue is toxic for their constituents, who want israel to end military operations in the gas sector entirely. and if the israeli-iranian conflict starts now, we do not know at all what the consequences will be from the domestic political point of view of the american side. so this is a problem, problem number one, problem number. johnson is ready to make a decision that will have this credit in mind, it is likely, relatively, but this decision must be developed and agreed on at the bipartisan level. the republicans themselves do not have a majority for this, because obviously that this radical part of them will not vote for it, because they are generally against any help to ukraine. who says that

ukrainians are killing priests, she will definitely not vote for it, and all the people close to trump, so that he does not talk about lending there, they will not vote for it, so the votes of the democrats are needed in order to have the votes of the democrats, again, what should this package look like, should it include israel's help, well, obviously, without israel's help, this project is not needed by the republicans, probably a certain part. the votes of the democrats will be enough, but here is another question, and what else will be there if the republicans want to write there, as they usually do, some issues, which, say, are connected with leaking gas, with its terminal in the native state michael johnson, mike johnson. i'm not sure it will pass the house of representatives. then i don't really understand, it's necessary to sit down and calculate how long such a procedure can take.

let's imagine that the bill needs to be developed next week by the deputies of the chamber representatives are already starting, they can for him, they can start some voting procedures, but what, but what, and everyone says that this will be the most difficult moment in johnson's political career, especially ukraine, because he risks resignation, so even if he will take a risk even if this bill is approved and will be'. it still has to go to the senate, and there will be a new problem here, because again, to what extent the republicans and democrats in the senate will agree among themselves, how interested will the administration be in this bill in that if he's going to have some things that are going to hurt biden's campaign interests in one way or another, how much ... in principle, we

can hope that it will be approved quickly. now the next question, so that we all clearly understand what we are talking about, when we hear all this talk about credit and start to take it at face value, how much money does the administration want to allocate to ukraine, if i am not mistaken, at the moment, it is 60 billion dollars, but there we are talking about... if we are talking about credit, then not all of it is there either, not the whole amount, that is, a part of it, 48 billion dollars, and it goes to the needs of the military-industrial complex of the united states, so these 60 billion, by the way, this is also an interesting thing when we say that we will receive this money and that's it, we will breathe a sigh of relief, without them we will not survive, this is 12 billion dollars, which we will receive if this bill is passed, immediately and in service, all other weapons... still need to be developed, so

the question arises, what is donald trump so worries, he himself has 12 billion dollars, i'm very sorry, trump is a man, maybe now no, but... in principle, this is a raise for donald trump himself. he could give us his own $12 billion and calm down. we are constantly discussing loan rates in the amount of 12 billion dollars for a country whose military budget is how much? hundreds of millions of dollars. hundreds, hundreds of billions of dollars, hundreds. we receive 12 billion dollars a year in aid from the european union. 10 billion dollars each out of those 50, it looks so childish, i'll be honest with you i don't even know how to comment on it, of course when the tish loan is 60 billion dollars, we give 60 billion dollars, this is money, they have to

give it to us, they don't give it, they give it 12, 48 - this is jobs in the united states, this is money for the united states, this, this is redistribution budget of the united states, and it honestly surprises me, and we are seriously discussing it, so what are they doing, they are taking time, but imagine that they gave us these 60 billion dollars, and 12 billion of them would not have been burdened with credit, what would happen? and everyone says ukraine will never be able to give back this money, why can't we give away 12 billion dollars, what kind of fiction are these, well, that's all, if it wasn't so, i would say... it's critically important for us, when every penny is in the account, you could just refuse it, honestly, don't worry about it, because when you name the whole amount, of course , your eyes open wide when you realize that we are now, and it's about survival now, all this money in the long run, it's very

good, but it will always be the question for which country, it existed, controlled the borders, so that half of the territory is not occupied as a result of delaying all these things, and that's all... mr. vitaly, you said such and such a phrase or sentence: "they are taking time." republican. and here it is, and here it is, of course, it resonated with me so much. what are they wasting time for, is it within the framework of trump's election campaign, or are those people who, as of today, are delaying aid to ukraine as much as possible, are opposing aid to ukraine, or are they de facto, so to speak, working off. some subpoena in favor of the kremlin, no, they don't are working out a subpoena in favor of the kremlin, it makes sense if you look at the world through the eyes of donald trump, donald trump is absolutely sure that ukraine cannot win the war in russia anyway, he does not hide it,

he is sure that the whole problem is that joseph biden can't negotiate with vladimir putin because joseph biden is generally a bad politician and can't negotiate with anyone, although we remember that joseph biden tried to... so i don't think trump would have done better, but such, i assure you, that trump is sure that he has it will turn out better, everything in trump's life is generally better than others, it's trump, it's trump, you can go vote and go to the headquarters, you understand, it's trump, but then why spend money, once, then why escalate , two then why should ukraine release three territories, when it will still keep only what trump and putin agree on, well, what is it for, you know, if you are a businessman, these are all absolutely useless steps, but if putin wants it, this and that, he will get it, the question

is simply that on the defense of this territory or on her there, conditionally speaking, released, some number of ukrainians and russians will die, and for what, and you will die too, so be it? will any amount of american money be spent? and everything is very simple: in november, trump wins, this is his idea of ​​life, his staff immediately starts some negotiations with the kremlin, at the moment when trump becomes president, a security agreement is concluded between the states and russia, ugh, and ukraine is simply informed, that she has such and such a territory, such and such a status, she must do this, this and that, and she will peace, no one even asks. they just report that south vietnam someone asked when kissinger negotiated with led dekho, no one will ask, it will just be reported, but here is such an agreement between hanoi and washington, well , trump has such an idea about politics, it is from the 70s of the 20th century , there are serious guys,

they come to an agreement, and there are, well, how should i say it, there are some small countries that have just. understand this, but if you give money, if you create unnecessary illusions, ukraine will start to resist, to decide, why this, you know how, like, like an adult who doesn't want to hear this childish scream. doesn't want to get on their nerves and they just think it's unnecessary, at the same time, they don't want to appear as people who go against public opinion, they see that the majority of americans are in favor of helping ukraine, and in this case, they just show that and we want, we also want to help, just not like the democrats, we don't want to drink our money, we want to give credit, this is all empty chatter, which we have already explained. discussion of the amount of 12 bln dollars in credit, it is not, as you say, it

is not decent for a large state, it is a small state, if you, which gives you 12 billion, and for which this is a serious budget amount, and it tears away from the heart, from its own taxes, serious the money that could be used to build is incredible, maybe, i would say, there are some infrastructural facilities, she says: you know, we want to get from this... interest, we want to get this money back when you can, well, when this is what the united states is saying, we understand that this is all theater, here i am explained to you the reasons for this theater, well, trump thinks so, but one thing, trump thinks, trump thinks, and another thing, will it still be the way he thinks, because his idea of ​​​​the world and the real world is we understand slightly, slightly different things, i can answer that question. by and large, the problem is that trump may

see the world differently, but eh, 2025, one way or another, may be related to the problems of putin himself. we understand that putin does not have a bottomless barrel of resources, he can... what in at some point he must at least suspend the war. always a question of when? again, from a logical point of view, from a logical point of view, we were talking about this back in 2022, if you remember, andrei, that putin would drag this war until the presidential election in the united states, at least, and it seemed to many that this somehow too long, how to get it all the way to the president. elections, well, please, april 2024, we already understand exactly what he will achieve,

true, so after the presidential elections in the united states, putin can, in principle, it's considered necessary to talk to their winner, not so much about the war in ukraine, because that's one of the points of the situation, but about how to coexist, i just don't think he's going to negotiate on terms that will please donald trump, but the fact that... an opportunity will open for, let 's say, more serious russian-american consultations, and not those, relatively speaking, closed or episodic ones that we learn about from time to time, it's true, here trump is right, the only question is , who will be the winner election, but the fact that the person who wins in 2024 will most likely... talk about something with the president of russia, that's also true,

that's true, and that is, that is, even if biden becomes the second president, and such are the chances he has it, we can see the latest polls now, and i also published them on my resources, where, where it is said that biden now has even more, at least there for the last few weeks, we see that it is growing, so the rating, their chances? my estimate, i think many other analysts 50 at 50 now, in any case, to say that trump is the winner, it will not be frozen, biden, yes, here we are coming to it, biden stands for the second time, is re-elected for a second term, in this case, what does putin do or is biden doing, are the same negotiations taking place again that we talked about under trump conditional, yes, that is, the position of ... russian, it will be adjusted when biden is elected, re-elected, parallel to

their position that they have when elected trump i think that they have a position on the plus side trump's picks aren't as great for trump as trump might think. they just might have a position, and it's a little bit, and it's also necessary to understand it. the position is, yes, they can. now to develop certain positions during these negotiations, you see that they want to talk specifically with the united states, but i will tell you more, i allow that such consultations can take place even before the president. elections in the united states. washington may also be interested in some suspension of the conflict until the presidential elections. ugh. lest to create the illusion that only trump can negotiate with moscow. this can also be a certain calculation. i'm just not sure that putin will go to any talks before the presidential

elections. but, as always, the price is a question. and the level of intelligence. putin's institutional problems of his own country. we never know, because we do not live in putin's head, to what extent he adequately perceives the economic, let's say , reality that exists in the third year of the great war. and here we go, indeed, you pushed me to think that putin, relatively speaking, now... these months are the closest to 2024, in general, it can make a so-called leap, in principle it is already doing so, we are now seeing a leap in ukrainian energy, we are now seeing essentially different insights about what and from budanov, we have already talked about this with the guests, and from foreign media, about the fact that

russia is still planning another offensive for... may, june, july, tentatively for the summer, let's say so, that is, we can do it to connect what putin wants now in the context of future negotiations at least he wants, we will not talk about whether he will succeed or not, to carry out certain, certain military steps, to occupy, perhaps, new territories, to inflict maximum, and, i say, if, to inflict s... maximum blows on the ukrainian energy, and, accordingly , the ukrainian economy, maybe he will have some other goals, and in this way get to a better negotiating position, i don't think that we are talking about a better negotiating position, we are talking about simple things, this is logic, not politics, this is logic gangs if you manage to capture the whole ukraine and destroy all of it, well, that's fine

, we capture, destroy, annex, we continue to talk, if it doesn't work... to capture all of ukraine, then it is necessary to capture until the moment, at least the armistice, as much as can be captured, but again, that's about it there is nothing new, this is a program that appeared after the defeat in 2022, after the blitzkrieg collapsed, it became clear that the puppet government that was supposed to provide all this could not be done here, they decided that they would stop then, when capturing what can be captured, i.e. at the moment of exhaustion, let's say, resources, russia should seize as much of what it can seize and protect it from the ukrainian army, as much as possible, this is one moment, then there is another moment, it is diplomatic, the question is not only about the captured territories, but now there is this forum in switzerland in june, and it might

seem that russia will react to it absolutely. because he has not decided anything in principle, well, representatives and leaders of the country who essentially support ukraine will gather, people who do not support it very much can come there, they will decide to come vague communiqué, if there is a global south, even zelenskyi's peace formula will not be included in it, this must be understood, if there is a global south, i mean, simply for all good against all bad, for peace against war, for territorial integrity without clear instructions on how to achieve it and so on, but they went to others. lavrov flew to beijing, the chinese began to talk about the need for a peace conference with the participation of russia and ukraine with equal representation of them, and that china could become an alternative center for holding such a forum, that is, in fact, they are still trying to create an alternative

diplomatic track. there is a big forum in switzerland, where president biden can come. that is, if president biden is there, if president zelensky, the leaders of the western countries are there, it will be a representative conference, but one that cannot solve anything, and we propose a conference at which zijinping will sit between putin here and zelensky here and help them to agree. who in this case looks like a world leader? well, of course if biden can only talk about peace in ukraine with zelenskyi and macron, and sydzenpin with zelenskyi and putin. if zelensky will of course agree to such a game, then it is obvious that you have bipolar peace, you have a bipolar world, you have everything bipolar and peace. bipolar in ukraine, so to speak, through the chinese role, and the world is becoming bipolar, thanks to the role of xizen ping in this whole story,

and moscow is essentially giving beijing a pass for such a game, and it is clear that now that olaf scholz will go to xizenpin, and then sidzhenping will go to paris, sidzenpin will try to explain to scholz and macron that it is necessary to use this format, it is strategic. europe, what's up america, let's all get together in beijing and end it ourselves in the end, and i 'll negotiate, if you agree, i'll negotiate with putin when i have him, and it's a very risky game, really , this is an even more dangerous story than the offensive, given that the offensive is at least handled by people who are professional soldiers, and this story will be handled by people who are professional pr people, and... they won’t even understand what they are being dragged into, in the west they already understand this, because this is a serious, serious application and very unexpected, and this despite

the fact that, in principle, china supports russia, that is, if this does not happen directly , if, relatively speaking, china does not supply weapons directly, as they say, from the conveyor to russia, then china helps others, for example, the article сshated pr came out. she says that china is massively supplying russia with goods that are not for military purposes, but this it is clear that these are microelectronics, that these are all kinds of elements for missiles, machine tools, and so on and so on, everything related to the manufacture of missiles, tanks and so on and so on, that is, we are talking about the fact that china is also trying to take russia out to the edge we understand very well that no chinese company would support russia and would not supply anything to russia if there was no agreement

from the top management of china, well, of course, this is not the kind of country where a totalitarian country can be there, well, i don't think that's what we're talking about about a better negotiating position, what do china think at all in terms of a better negotiating position, the west thinks better in terms of a better negotiating position, it wants... to have a better negotiating position, this is another great illusion of this war: you will advance here and there, and you will cut off the corridor here, and you will release this and that here, and you will have a better negotiating position in the negotiations with russia. i don't know who made this up, but we heard this all through 2022, then 2023, you see, you couldn't and you won't have a better negotiating position, and they didn't exist, and still don't, because russia wasn't going to to hold no negotiations, that's all... again, fictions that live in the heads of western politicians, because they believe that if they were in such a situation, they would go to the negotiations, in a worse position, and putin is not them, absolutely everything is fine with him,

he will simply mobilize a certain number of people there and throw them like cannon fodder, he will do something very unpleasant for his own compatriots, he needs it, so china can think differently, china just... does not want , so that russia suffered some kind of tactical defeat in this war, about what is strategic they will definitely win, there is no question about it, they are sure that they have a lot of time, but they see that if russia, let's say, is forced to end this war not when putin wants it, but, let's say, just because , that there really are no more resources to continue fighting, then this is a defeat for russia, even if it retains control over the occupied territories, you understand? when the war stops, not because there are agreements, but because there is no longer enough equipment, or people, or something else, it is a defeat, well, not enough for

further aggressive actions to get something there are more, but it is no longer possible to advance, and missiles to destroy the energy sector can no longer be produced, because there are no components, this is what china wants to prevent, but again, it wants to prevent it so as not to fall under sanctions, and that is why the americans.. . they can put pressure on the chinese, but it is no coincidence that janet yellen, the secretary of the treasury of the united states, was in china before lviv's visit, who clearly said that no, you cannot cooperate with russia, they repeat this constantly, of course, they cannot completely stop it , but these intimidation related solely to the fact that they hide better, if they, the more they hide, the less they can afford. of course, and that's all, that is , the americans are not idiots either, they understand that china is a strategic ally of russia, that both countries are in a relationship, i said mutual aid, there is one. what is needed

is that sid jiangfin and vladimir putin really really understand each other, there are no illusions that these two countries are allies in this whole story, but given that china does not want to admit it, the possibilities all the time to make big eyes and say, but we want, and i will find, and then, then all this goes all the way to the bottom, and the bottom is a smaller amount of products, it is true, china, in principle, china is trying. .. hide your direct support for russia, china, officials, all official statements of china indicate that we are against any supply of weapons to the parties, you are supplying weapons to ukraine on the battlefield, as this deputy secretary said, i apologize to the permanent representative of the security council , china's permanent representative to the security council, here are these arms deliveries on the battlefield, they are only intensified by escalation, and we want negotiations, but we are peaceful, we

do not give anything to russia there, we just trade with it, as i just read, certain non-military components, although it is clear that these are military components, and it is clear that russia simply produces a lot of things on its territory, we must not forget that russia is still a country with a large number of military-industrial complexes, that is, factories that produce various types of equipment, and they can build various horn of the family new ones factories, as they built, for example, with the same shaheds. by the way, if we have already talked about the shaheds, then i would like to talk about one more topic, and it concerns another ally of the occupiers, iran. and why this topic is very important, because it also resonates very, very much and is very closely related to ukraine. this is a topic, very much. related to

ukraine, i pay a lot of attention to this topic, someone writes to me there, what are you writing about, why are we here, come on, let's write about a lot about ukraine, let's not write about israel or about iran, and i say that this is a wrong position, because we do not live on a separate planet, we live on planet earth, and geopolitical interests in the event of a war, or an attack by iran on israel, and in the event that the middle east flares up again, for... us these these things and these and these consequences, they will not be very good for us either, and we also understand this, and to be brief, because now we will move on to the questions, our viewers know, and if they do not know, then you remember very well , that last week there was an attack by the israeli armed forces on damascus, this the capital of syria, actually there...

several representatives of senior officers of iran were killed, yes, who were actually preparing attacks there, including on israel, attacks on other states, and now in the foreign press, including among politicians, such as biden, who has now interrupted his, his, his, his, his, his, sabbatical, and is talking to his entourage about a possible escalation in the middle east. it's about iran hitting israel in the coming days or the coming weeks, we don't know that, i think no one knows exactly when it may or may not happen, but if it does happen, then of course, for our country and for all of us, it will also be a certain moment that will affect the position of the united states of america and many of our other allies

in... helping ukraine, that is, even in the media, militarily, in any way. and now we come to this question. is a real conflict in the middle east possible, or is an iranian attack on israel possible in the coming days, weeks or months? and if so, what intensity can it be? well and the third question. how it could ultimately affect ukraine, because it seems to me that russia would be clapping its hands there and would very much like for that to happen and for iran to attack israel. well, of course, this attack is possible, it will happen in the coming days, everyone understands this perfectly well, it is not months or weeks, but secondly, it was absolutely clear that israel and iran could not but strike back after being destroyed high-ranking representatives.