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Understanding 9/11tv Global Energy Outlook CSPAN February 2, 2018 12:50pm-2:38pm EST
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>> over 12 million men, women and children pass this way, passed through rooms and corridors hau s haunted with as once noise yessy with hum life. >> here they traded their rupless for dollars. here they sang their first american songs and experienced their first american christmas and hanukkah and here they waited to be given permission to paz over to the new land. >> sunday 10:00 a.m. eastern, an interview with catherine wife of u.s. army general william, who commanded u.s. forces in vietnam. >> my main work was redcross and i did -- i really worked almost everyday i worked in the
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vietnamese opt and our hospital and i went to nutrong once a week to do red cross work. >> watch "american history tv," every weekend on c-span3. >> the senate energy committee held a hearing on the global energy out look. the executive tiff director of the agency talked about oil and gas production and the decreesable price of renewable energy and cyber security and a another of other issues, this is about an hour and 45 minutes.
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>> good morning everyone the committee will come to order as we begin our first hearing what propositions to be a very busy 2008 i'd like to provide specific welcome this morning to our new member, senator smith. it is good to have you as part of the committee. i think you will find that this is a committee that does good work. we like to focus on policy and we like to do things in a bipartisan way every now and again. so looking forward to starting the new year off with that good foot. we don't have senator capito with us this morning but she is returning to our committee and i look forward to welcoming her and her on going contributions. we have a lot the bill we're looking forward to continuing
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that as the year progresses. our efforts to increase the nation's minimal security, forestry manage reforms, park maintenance backlog, islands and territory it is, we have a wide arrange, so those are just a few of the things we have on deck for the new year. we're going to have a lighter attendance this morning i think many members are returning to washington ahead of this evening's vote. but i thank you dr. birol for your attendance this morning. we look to the iea for its guidance, forecast and for better understanding of what is happening around the world and so you being here this morning to help set the stage for the year and provide your agency's perspective on the domestic and
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global energy out look is appreciated. the good work done by ipe provides information to guide policy decisions. the insight and analysis helps us move our policies in the right direction and in turn, our work helps them with their core mission. we can not emphasize too strongly how significantly the role of the united states has evolved in recent years. as dr. birol notes in his prepared statement, the united states has become the undisputed global oil and gas leader. now, during my time here on the committee as ranking member and as chair, we have gone from discussing the needs to site lng import terminals along the coast to now expediting them.
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we gone from le meanting our reliance on foreign oil and the steep price to the united states being the world's spring producer and air abundant energy. leading the way and the administration, working hard to reduce barriers. allowing for increases expiration and production in the united states as we did at the end of last year with the opening of alaska channel two area, allowing us to to have influence in the world market. and we know that the markets could rise substantially in the future if we don't take active steps for investment and supply. last march warning the global oil supply can lag after 2020 if new investments are not made in the near term. that's a warning for all of us. i know the iea has continued to conduct research and i look
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forward to going deeper into that this morning. it was established on the premise of wrop rative oil security, agency expanded to cover a wide range of energy related topics. energy efficient circumstances the digitalization of energy and the cost reduction in renewable technologies. which have major shifts on how we use energy. largely through a domestic lens so today we have the benefit again, of an international perspective. we certainly look forward to it. so again, thank you for taking time this morning to come and testify. we know that your schedule is busy when you travel from paris and we appreciate your willingness to share your expertise. i turn to senator cantwell for her opening comments. >> thank you madam chair and
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thank you for scheduling today's hearing. i so appreciate him being here today and for the discussion on the iea primary focus on increasing energy security for the member nations and i appreciate its continued focus on expanding the definition of energy security as well. because energy security means many are than just oil and gas flowing in and out across borders but producting critical infrastructure from physical and cyber attacks that have been the subject of a lot of the past administrations focus on the review and what we need to do to upgrade that and the security of our nation. we must take action to protect our infrastructure from cyber attacks and the grid and energy networks are under constant cyber attacks from 2012 to 2016
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reporting them and doubled. so now the as a rule ner arables have been exposed by various attempts including russians to hack into the electricity grid, it's not a threat, he have been hacked and must take steps to protect your energy infrastructure. i appreciate the chair traving to the novrt west to see the technologies and approaches to cyber security and she and i worked on legislation that we passed, to the united states senate, we are hopeful that our colleagues will make this a priority and move forward in working on this with cyber security since the infrastructure is so important. obviously, diversifying the energy mix is another key part of the energy security puzzle and minimizing the consequences of climate impact which threatens around home and around the world. reinnesting in renewable energies and fossil fuels and
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ways to help drive down cost we've seen great examples of a forgetting the right terminology, the fact the energy savings from energy efficiency is continuous flow of investment into business that makes them more competitive which then allows them to stay ahead on a competitive basis. those numbers on energy efficiency we'll look at the bullet foundation building to a focus on how to make more of these developments worldwide, very very exciting technology that we're proud of from the pacific northwest. according to the iea world energy out look, making up two-thirds of the electricity as they become the cheapest sources. the iea finds that the cost come down 70% wind by 20% and battery
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40. energy efficiency is a key on the energy security side and having the total energy use would have more than doubleleed without energy efficiency. so this has been saving us in so many ways. as you noted, one-third the cost to save a call kilowatt instead developing one. energy dominance and security, i hope we hear less about just the exporting issues also we work hard to come up with strategies is that clarify our national policies and focus on what we can do to drive the cost effectiveness of energy. whoever has the most cost effective solutions will continue to win in the marketplace. so i look forward to hearing that today and thank you for
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being hear. >> thank you senator cantwell. thank you again and welcome to the committee. for those who are not familiar with dr. birol he took office as iea executive director in september of 2015 after 20 years with the agency itself. previously he held the position of chief economist with responsibility for directing the flag ship world energy out look publication and been the founder and chair of the iea energy business council. he has a whole series of accolades and awards that have been conferred upon him over the years and again, dr. birol we appreciate the insight you will provide for us and the good work of your team at the international energy agency. we welcome you and we invite your comments this morning.
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typically we ask those who are testifying before the committee to try to limit the comments to five minutes, but because you are the sole panel before us, i welcome your extended remarks and then we'll have an opportunity to query you with regards to other issues so thank you and good morning. >> madam chair and ranking member cantwell, distinguished members of the committee, thank you very much for the opportunity to appear before you today and present the agencies for global energy markets. let me also join to madam chair to wish everybody a happy new year. for the agency, 2017 was a very successful year, a year of continued success and growth. one of the highlights of our
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successful year, 2017 was that in november our ministers across the world came together together with business to discuss global energy issues, challenges and how they see the challenge in different countries and provided guidance to international energy agency and i want to thank the u.s. government, especially secretary perry for his personal engagement. and wed several businesses joining our meeting, at least part of t. several ceos from the united states, ceo of general electric, chemicals and ceos in the country across the world and wed a wonderful administrative meet with a good discussion and i would like to reflect some
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discussions today. before going to some of our -- fundings, i would loo i can to briefly tell you what the iea is all about. we were founded in 1974 in the oil crisis basically by mr. k s ssi nger himself and now we are 43 years old. the motivation to build it is oil security and look after the oil securities issues providing a oil security mek national weather service across the world. throughout these years the mandate has evolved as madam chair mentioned. we look at the oil, gas, renewables and energy
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efficients, reliable issues and the investments and all of the technology. iea is unique organization which looks all the technology and implications for the markets and our well being. we have several governments in all of the continents and, it is a hot topic in the government, energy. so we try to bring some factual information for the governments for the decision makers to discuss, to debate and come up with, hopefully, solutions for their countries and for their citizens. now, provided a basis for our discussion, i would like to tell you how the global energy markets in the next years to come and i will highlight you four major trends which will affect all of us.
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i like to say that countries, even the united states one of the most important energy countries in the world even the united states is not an energy island. represents other countries affect all of us and united states as i will show you and it will affect everybody else. so these four major trends, upheave ls we call them. affecting us in the next year to come given the size of these changes and also the speed of those changes i think it is important for us to take a note of them. what are these four major upheave ls that's going to transform the market and energy discussion that we used to know and perhaps we need to change
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now. number one, madam chair mentioned a lot of states set to become the undisputed leader of oil and gas production for many years to come. which -- this is number one. number two, the cost of renewable energies are going down so significantly that they are becoming the first choice of power, near power plants in several countries across the world and these choices are not necessarily driven by the -- concerns but for the cross concerns because they are becoming cheap. mainly, solar and wind. this is number two. number three, china. china recently changed its
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economic policy. namely, moving from being an industrial workshop, work house, manufacture slowly but surely light the economy and with the new motto making the skies of china blue again and they are moving in the direction of clean energy which will help measure implications for all of us given the sheer size of the markets. this is clean energy, gas, renewables and nuclear powers and others. fourth, within the energy system, we use energy, the share of electricity is growing strongly. growing much faster than oil and gas and coal, everything gas is our life's and social life
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economic life are becoming much more connected and electricity is a critical role. these are the four major upheave l we see are important. if you can elaborate a little bit and the most important one, the u.s. at the end. starting with the clean energy technologies. the cost of solar fell down substantially. in the beginning the several countries subsidized especially european countries, solar, especially in emergent countries, china, pushed the solar and there's a concept in the economy, learning by doing. the more you do it the better and cheaper you do it and cost of solar is not -- going very
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very -- the second wind. cost of wind is going to go down. it's going down and the addition to industrial countries, major growth of renewables are coming from today emerging countries especially china and india are the leaders. china is today, number one country in terms of solar and number one in terms of wind -- and when we look at the future. we see that the cost of solar and wind continue to decline and they are going to compete very soon with that and subsidies and competing with the traditional sources of electricity. this is something important and why china and others are pushing solar. it is not necessarily as some people may think, for primary
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reason, is not climate change. primary reason is because it is cheap. and the second is that another issue in especially china and india is the city, local pollution in the cities to reduce the local pollution, those countries are pushing solar and wind substantially and they are becoming cheaper and cheaper. we are seeing a big growth of solar and wind in the next years to come and if i can give you one number to focus on, the 2016, after all of the power plants built in the world, solar, alone was more than 50%. solar, other 50% other renewable plus coal, oil, gas and nuclear together, 50%, other 50% solar
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capacity alone. so this is something that we need to take into consideration. i should mention that the renewable electricity especially solar and wind also has shortcomings, namely, they are very much bound to the wealth conditions in india when the family comes home the first thing they do is turn on the air-condition or the television when there is no sun. so it is difficult, it is not easy i should say to match the -- when there's sun and when the electricity market is high and there are some technologies we are working and others are working on that. to sum up, clean energy technology are coming strongly and cheaper. another point is electricity is
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actually, electricity is going very strongly everywhere. the electricity consumption grows two times faster than the overall energy consumption. our lives are becoming more and more ethical and -- becoming more and more electrified and the cooling needs. air-conditions are a major driver across the world. this is important to note and what kind of power plants we're going to built? that's a key question and at the same time it sends electricity, the more used, many are dominant in our social and economic lives, the electricity security become as critical issue. in the case of this, our entire economic social life and communication processes will be paralyzed so therefore, it an area that the agency is working on, the issue of security.
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third, china. china is today, the largest energy consumer of the world by far and last year china respond to congress, president chi said we want to make the skies of china blue again. once again pushing the chinese energy prospect into cleaner direction. lots of support for energy and energy efficiency and lots of support for natural gas and electric vehicles. china today in terms of coal markets to give the size. half of them are using china and the other half everybody else put together and china today is putting a cap on the coal consumption in order to limit the pollution in the cities,
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basically. and china is in the new, with the new policy, replacing coal with renewables and natural gas. if i may combat what i said in the beginning, no country is an energy island. china is going from coal to gas. in a very short period of time and ended up major -- imports of china and as a result of that between a one year of time, the process in -- because of the new policy. this will affect everybody. china is the going to be the largest oil consumer very soon over taking the united states. another area which i would like to bring your attention is the nuclear power and china. china today is the country which
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is the most engaged with the nuclear power industry. and we see that more than one-third of all nuclear power plants today will be in china. and looking at what's happening in the united states, the numbers show that in 10 years of time china's nuclear capacity will over take united states and china will be number one and united states number two in terms of nuclear capacity if the current policies do not change. in general, china's policies are changing, as a result of the chinese boom. it was an impact on the oil, coal, emissions market. and now, another policy on the clean energy and this also affects on the energy markets. my final point madam chair is about the united states.
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another critical as we call it big time mention of the energy markets. what do we say as a result of shared revolution? u.s. is becoming the undisputed leader of oil and gas production. in terms of oil, oil production is going strongly and will continue to grow, all of our expectations are in the direction and we think that this growth is unprecedented. the size of the growth and the pace of the growth. we have seen such a big growth in the history of oil once when in the foreign -- saudi arabia expanded their famous oil field, the biggest one in the world.
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in terms of natural gas, united states is out of shell gas increasing the production strongly and going to bring a lot of lng to the markets and we expect the u.s. will be the largest lng exporter in 2020s. both of this developments have implications of the prices. for energy security -- investments and of course for the u.s. economy. this is definitely good news for the u.s. economy. both the developments and the gas and the oil side. and our projections show that this leadership of the united states in terms of oil and gas will continue many years to come especially if it is a combined
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with the right domestic policies at home. so these are the four major upheavel.s we see. and the renewals are going down substantially and there will be a mainstream and considered as a mainstream fuel now. and second we see that electricity is becoming very important field in our society and our economic lives and social lives with a lot of efficiency gains and bringing a lot of challenges especially in the context of the electricity security picture. third, china it is changing its energy policies going from a coal based economy and slowly but surely clean energy
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technologies and making more use of natural gas and fourth, united states is becoming the undisputed leader of oil and gas for the years to come. so i would like to finish my words madam chair that the agency is following the developments in the united states and across the world. we are talking with all of the governments throughout the world and trying to bring the best advice based on effects, analysis and data and we are today and any time at your disposal to answer questions and requests. thank you very much. >> thank you dr. birol. a great deal to think about here this morning again, to understand how the united states
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has assumed this role as you say to be the undisputed leader certainly when it comes to oil and gas and recognizing the nature of how we got there and how quickly we have assumed this position, it is certainly something to consider. but also recognizing what you have shared with us and the role that china is playing and how that too will not only impact energy production and consumption around the world but more specifically, to us here in the united states. you have mentioned that with regards to oil and gas production here in the united states that this is good news for the u.s. economy and for our trade and especially and i'm quoting you here, especially if combined with the right domestic
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policies. when you make that statement, are you -- are you referring to tax policies, energy policies is it a combination of all of that? if you can go more into that, i'd be curious. >> of course. now, united states is a very fortunate country because you have oil, gas, renewable energy resources and innovative business here. so by the improvement of the technology, you will get more and more oil and gas from the existing resources if the right incentives are provided to the industry. this is number one. number two, i believe u.s. has huge potential to make more use of renewable energies solar and
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wind especially. and i was very happy to see that the current support for the renewable energy policies are contingent in a strong way. >> the prediction, tax credits? >> exactly. third, there's one concept in the united states that is very important. the independence and energy independence. it is based on two factors. one is the increasing the production allowed. and second, chipping the consumption at a certain level and not to waste energy. namely, energy efficiency. so i think -- when i imagine domestic energy policies i believe in addition to the supply side policies, production side policies increasing oil and gas, we must also put emphasis on the using energy efficiently so that we don't waste energy
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and have the same results and productivity from the system. so all in all, i think u.s. energy system is going in the right direction. lots of resources, but domestic policies need to help them. >> appreciate that. let me ask you a question specific to the arctic. i focus a lot in these spaces and not just the u.s. arctic, but the arctic broader and last year i had an opportunity to visit the lng facility in hammer fest in norway, significant amount of natural gas is processed and shipped to europe and over in russia what we are seeing on the yamal peninsula and elsewhere as they're exporting their lng across the world including to china, what role do you see the energy resources from the arctic, whether it be oil, whether it be
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gas and this is again, not just looking at the united states but the bigger energy picture specifically coming from these arctic northern countries. >> thank you very much. we have huge doueposits of oil d gas in the arctic region across the world. there are two challenges there. one challenge is the economic challenge. in a -- low price environment and we have a lot of shell oil whether or not they will be able to get the investors and second, some of the arctic resources may cause environmental questioness. these are the two oil issues. moving from there i will put oil and gas differently. in terms of oil, we have a huge
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according to the u.s. survey, huge deposits and if you look at the -- especially the area, the arctic -- resources area. we see that there is a very important attractiveness there, namely availability of the alaska pipeline which is under utilized today substantially. and you have the chances of if the production was to take place, you have the chances of the -- or possibility of transporting it into a very easy way. this is definitely an advantage. the challenge however is that the in terms of oil again, the economic attractiveness in the current price and the plan to officiate oil context and therefore we think with the current context it will be difficult to believe that the
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substantial amount of oil production coming from that region before 2030 unless we see surprises in the markets. having said that, if a significant resources and the production come from there, this will be good news for the economy and employment in alaska. coming to lng that's a different story. the gas in the region and we know that unlike the oil, we have issue of the infrastructure here and the main bottleneck is the infrastructure building the pipelines here and the lng plants, but i see here significant marketing chances especially for asia. also given the job advantage.
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if i may bring it to the point i said a few minutes ago madam chair, today, china is moving in the direction of gas. they are going to import a lot of lng to replace their coal, basically and i see there's a lot of opportunity in china and japan. i often visit japan and meet with japanese government madam chair, you may well know they are thankful for you bringing lng to the japanese government when they were in a difficult situation and japanese don't forget good gesture coming from your government. so to sum up, i see at an lng point of view, significant chances to provide gas hungry asian region. >> thank you very much. senator cantwell. >> thank you, madam chair.
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i many times suggested to her that should be a good focus for alaska, natural gas as opposed to the more recent discussion on the an war. as you point out china being the huge market opportunity for the future poses with a shift in policy as you clearly noted to a bluer sky, being the largest market opportunity for the u.s. what policies on that clean energy front do you think we need to continue to focus on here that would help us in looking at asia more as a market and the u.s. leadership? i say that on the energy efficiency side and nuclear policy side. energy efficiency in the context i think you stated it well, saving much and continuing to move forward. i look at it from the efficiencies we have achieved within our region to some of the
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technologies that are being used in other countries, for example i think one of the northwest companies provided metered energy in south africa so they can buy the power it takes to turn the lights on when the kids come home from school. it is making our businesses competitive and reaching the marketplace. what else do we need to do to focus on energy efficiency and other export poll sis on the clean side? >> thank you very much. first of all, u.s. becoming an exporter to china, and asia in general. i mentioned china and i should have mentioned other country, which is india. india is very important because their economic growth is very strong and they have a very in
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my view, wise sound energy policy. and both of these countries use gas at the minimum level. global share of gas in the global energy mixes about 25% and both of the countries it is less than 5% only. there's a big gap and both of them, both of these countries are facing major challenges in terms of environments. local pollution in the cities and this is an issue in many countries, a reason for social unlist effect. so one solution to that, one of the solutions replacing coal by a natural gas and that will get the gas markets we see that the u.s. is coming very strongly in terms of lng exporter. and it's a good news for everybody to be honest with you.
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i should say almost everybody, expect for the traditional pipeline exporters in europe. because u.s. providing to europeans vis-a-vis the major pipeline exporters and making the hands of europeans stronger in terms of their negotiations of the price when they make new contracts. even they don't import one -- of u.s. gas they can import u.s. gas is a strong cart in their hands. coming to china, i think -- >> and on that point can you elaborate on the russians as well. aren't they trying to play in this marketplace? >> yes. in fact, the russian government is a result of the u.s. shell boom. russian government has -- is
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less stronger when it comes to the contract negotiations with the european customers because they if try to bring the price down f russian says no there's an option which is the u.s. gas. so in the past -- in the district there was only one shop in europe which is -- rugs sha needs to go and buy the gas from that shop. now there's another shop open, united states. they can choose which one is cheaper and has better conditions and provide better opportunity for the energy and in some cases the security and foreign policy. so u.s. gas is providing to europeans visa see the russian gas and i think it is important in terms of energy security and the competitiveness of the gas and contracts in europe.
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as a result of that, european contracts rene negotiation yates the contracts and bring the gas down. in terms of china and india, huge opportunity for u.s. gas. it is going to in the next five years reach amount of lng coming from united states and i'm sure asia region will be the primary destination for the u.s. lng and there's a huge opportunity to make money for u.s. and for those countries to diversify the energy system and make gas part of the system and make it more flexible and for the europeans diversify the source of inputs and provide again, a minimizing the economic social and maybe political risks.
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>> i see my time expired i thank you for elaborating. what some people may not understand what russian's issues are as it relates to europe and to us and why some of these things are so important people in administration in conflict and everything else. i thank you for that and i'll submit other things for the record. i want to thank my colleague, i failed to do that, i'll turn my portion over to her and let her continue on my behalf. thank you for your testimony and i appreciate senator smith joining our committee. this must be a record number of women on the committee. that's a good thing. >> let's go to senator kas si did i. >> i'm intrigued by the
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electrify indication of transportation if you will. let me ask you to comment on this. yesterday the ceo of chrysler quoted, i don't know of a business that is making money selling electric vehicles unless selling at a high end of the spectrum so and this is made of the detroit auto show. so i guess how do you kind of position that versus you're bully statement within a relatively short period of time we're going to transition to a primarily or equally electric car marketplace. your thoughts? >> thank you very much senator. i think the electric cars number of electric cars will grow, but our numbers show that even two decades from now, the biggest
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chunk of the cars we are running will be the existing internal combustion engines. electric cars will grow in some regions like in europe. there's a lot of -- in china a lot of support for electric cars and with the declining cost of batteries for cars, plus the very generous global subsidies in some countries we see the electric cars are increasing substantially. having said that, some people say you say that electric cars will increase but at the same time you think that there is a need for oil. how does it combine? it is a thought -- mr. senator,
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the cars are -- not the biggest part of the oil demand growth. oil demand growth today in the world is driven by trucks, jets, ships, and most importantly chemical industry. even if there's a lot of electric cars coming into the market we will still see that there's a need for a new oil production -- >> let me ask you this then. there's been a move afoot to transition diesel vehicles, boat are o trucks to natural gas powered vehicles. do you see that impacting what you just said? or will oil continue to dominate? >> oil will continue to dominate, but as long as the cost of gas remains lower, we
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see especially in the long haul, trucks there's a big chance of substitution of oil by natural gas. and also not only for trucks but also for the ships -- >> you said a big opportunity, but you've made specific projections regarding the percent of electric vehicles or a number. have you done a similar analysis -- what will be the rate of converse of laung haul vehicles or barges or tow boats for natural gas. >> at least increase at least three times compared to today and the big portion coming from the oil products. >> i don't have it here in your testimony. you speak of the sustained model which -- or something like that. the word sustained in there and i gather that is compatible with the low carbon mandate.
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the degree to which we achieve that, to what degree is that conversion of natural gas, excuse me, coal to natural glass or nuclear and to what degree is that deployment to renewables? >> if i can. give you a few headline figures. we have different scenarios, one is with the current policies and the other is sustainable, keeping a close eye on the climate change. in all of them natural gas does increase. natural gas is a winner increasing its role in all of them. wind is growing strongly in all of them especially in the sustained one especially for solar and wind. and coal will be depending on whether or not we can use coal in a cleaner way, especially in
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the context of carbon -- this is an area i mentioned secretary perry and myself run -- >> let me ask continuing on natural gas and renewables and your current policy and the sustained policy, what is the relative growth of renewables and not only the relative growth but by 2040 when is the percentage of the international energy mix that would be held by either the renewables or the natural gas? >> the natural gas will stay as it is now, about 20% but the volume is going to increase. in terms of renewable generation, it will go also
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substantially. coming mainly from solar and wind but coal will be a significant loser unless we can make use of carbon technologies. one is a nuclear power, nuclear power is a power that can produce electricity without emissions and this is depending on the policies of the government. they would like to see that play a more important role. >> thank you, i'm over, i yield back. >> senator smith. thank you. >> thank you madam chair i'm pleased to be here and part of this committee and i'm sorry say as a former resident of alaska and a person who worked on the trance alaskaian pipeline, this is a matter of great interest to me so i'm pleased to be here. and dr. birol, it is interesting
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to have a visit with you and i'm struck about what the conversation about the transformation we're seeing around the world and advancing renewables and energy efficiency in minnesota and my state this has been a focus of our energy policy a bipartisan focus of our energy policy and today we get about 21% of our energy from renewable and well on our way to hit our goal of 25% which i think can be higher and this means jobs for minnesota. 57,000 jobs. so i think about the benefits of this kind of strategy. also my business background taught me that diversification contributes to risk management and to security and so i'm quite interested to hear you talk more about how more affordable renewables and energy efficiency contributes to our overall
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energy security which is sort of the primary focus of the iea. >> thank you very much senator smith. now, u.s. is huge oil, gas, coal, renubl knewable resources it is important we make the most out of it in a cost effective manner, b, security energy and c, sustainable manner. i think this is three important parameters. we see a growing chance of u.s. making more use of renewable energies. costs are coming down and as madam chair mentioned, after the tax reform, we see that the incentive is to support renewables are still there. one area that we need to in my
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view, pay attention to is the efficiency. when we say u.s. will soon -- don't need to import any single barrel of oil this is for two reasons. one, it's the biggest succession of the shell oil boom and the biggest success story of the u.s. governments, u.s. industry shell oil boom will go and the second is that in my view, the standards in the u.s. keep the diesel consumption for cars and others other vehicles at a certain level and save oil at home. if we didn't have this efficiency standards, we would use more oil at home and therefore, the imports needs
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will be higher so therefore i see in addition to oil, gas, i see a role of renewables and energy efficiency to the diverse and sustainable mix for the u.s. government for the u.s. energy sector which will make the economy stronger and resilient. >> thank you. let me just ask you, how do you see -- where do you think this will -- where we're headed in terms of overall cost reductions for renewables? >> i think we expect it around the year 2020 most of the renewables in the world may not need anymore subsidy. they can be vis-a-vis traditional sources of energy, unlike 10 or 15 years ago. 10, 15 years ago in order to
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compete with natural gas, coal and others, they need to get a lot of subsidies and we may see in many count rries, most countries, for solar and on shore wins ween won't need subsidies, maybe offshore, they are becoming cheaper and cheap are, they are becoming the mainstream fuel in many countries. >> thank you. >> thank you madam chair. >> thank you, senator smith. i have so many things. this is fascinating this morning. i so thank you. as you know, a couple of years ago we reversed a 40 year policy that we'd had here in the united states that banned the export of oil. we were successful in lifting that in december of 2015 and there were some speculation at
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the time that not much would change in terms of the volume of oil that's exported from the united states do you to the price of oil the need of infrastructure improvements and global supply factors. we haven't necessarily seen that, we haven't seen the price impacts or the supply shortages that some claimed. can you discuss how the export of u.s. oil has changed the world dynamic. you referenced earlier in response to the question from senator cantwell, how with more lng that the united states has put out there on that global market how that has impacted not only europe and russia, but can you speak to the role that we are playing in the world energy markets now that we are able to export? >> of course, madam chair.
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so december 2015 you took this in my view, a very good decision to -- >> thank you. >> to lifting the u.s. oil -- as we look after the global energy security it's a positive contribution to global energy security. so it came in 2016 was a year when the u.s. oil industry had a difficult year because of at low prices and low oil prices, therefore that year we have seen the exports just under 600,000 per day. but 20017, last year, we saw an increase in the exports. about 1 million per day, most of the time but certain weeks it went to 2 million per day. a significant contribution. the important area here is that the -- not only the size but the quality of the oil is very important. that you are exporting.
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it is light and sweet the quality which is very much in demand and therefore, it can be used in many countries again, now, 600,000, 1 million barrels so when you think about where we have been historically with world conflict that comes about because of the virtual advantage that some nations have when it comes to energy resource,
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whether it's the middle east, other parts of the world, well you have given us kind of a new view of where we are going with the energy and energy worldwide. all that is coming on with regards to renewable. this means that countries that might not have fossil fuels at their disposal have other ways they too can achieve their own level of energy production. when we think about is acceptable hot spots that come over energy, we have presentations in this committee in the years i've served on the committee, and it always seems to have been focused around the -- who has the capacity when it comes to those sources of
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fossil fuels. do you see this changing now that the broader world energy portfolio is a greater mix, whether it's what you're saying, china is looking to with regards to nuclear, the price competitiveness and the advent oz renewables are truly becoming more viable solutions, how do you see things changing, or am i oversimplifying things with my example? and we still have this same kind of historical energy hot spots. >> extremely important issue, madam chair, if i may say so. now, there are two important changes happening in terms of -- of energy, one of them is coming of renewables.
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it is important, it is -- for some countries, more important than others. but if i may, renewables we are using mainly for electricity generation, but for transportation, for home heating, for industry, we still use a lot of gas, natural gas. in some countries coal, in some countries electricity and others. so therefore the renewables are changing the -- of energy in a big way is not something i would agree. it makes a small dent, but it is not going to change the -- of energy centered on oil and gas currently. but the second change on the -- change of producer is coming from the united states.
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this change of energy, u.s. coming as a major oil and gas country, and being a major exporter change a lot of thinking, change a lot of issues. let me give you one example. several years ago united states was importing a lot of oil from middle east. very soon, or perhaps now days it's zero or close to zero. this is something very important. another thing, u.s. is competing with russia for european gas markets. u.s. is, today, exporting gas to poland, for example, whereas russia is -- it's changed the dynamics significantly there. and from u.s. perspective, i am sure secretary tillerson in intelligence negotiations with his country partners is sitting on his chair much more comfortably compared to predecessors, with a lot of oil and gas potential. having said that, if i have to pinpoint one vulnerability in our world in terms of oil and gas, it is a following.
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many countries in the middle east, and also some major eastern european countries, their economies are single product economies, oil and in some case gas. when the price of this commodities go down, or as we just discussed with senator cassidy here, in the future if electric cars one day become a major, major part of transportation, they may suffer the economies, and they are not -- they are not prepared for that. their entire economy, social life is based on oil revenues. this is a major vulnerability, especially today, when the oil prices will be, we expect, more
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and more volatile, and technology may make surprises. as an energy agency, we are going to focus on our next outlook, these vulnerabilities of these countries. and madam chair, i will be happy to report to you which countries and what measures can be taken there. once again, energy has been redefined as a result of the developments in the united states, and big times, but also introduction of renewable energies in some countries. >> very interesting, thank you for that. senator smith. >> thank you, madam chair. dr. birol, i was really interested in the information in your report about how global energy usage, we expect to increase by i think it's 30% by
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2040, which is the equivalent of adding another china and india to global demand, and also i remember reading that yet there are still significant portions of the world where people don't have access to electricity at all. so there's this dramatic dichotomy in terms of where people are. i'd like to hear you, your views on what countries can do to take advantage of this growth and demand, i mean, from a competitiveness perspective, position themselves in their economies. this relates to what you were just talking about. and what countries can do to position themselves in their economies so that the literally trillions of dollars that are going to be invested in technology, that it -- that the countries can be well positioned to be competitive in that arena. >> and thank you very much.
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so when we look at the investment trends in the next years to come, we see huge investment opportunities, especially in the electricity generation, and transmission and distribution. asia and africa are key areas for investment opportunities. and here, of course, the -- as you implied, the u.s. companies can play a very important role, but in terms of the building power plants, providing capital, and also providing leadership in those countries. having said that, those countries, especially in china, india, and african countries, they have their own energy policies and their own targets. and when i look at those policies, they are geared at
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having energy at the lowest possible cost, keeping an eye on the environment, and also diversification of their energies as you rightly mentioned. i think those countries would welcome the investment opportunities from u.s. and elsewhere if the investments are in line with these three goals, namely the energy security, affordability of energy, and at the same time the production. in many u.s. companies are all working this those countries. but the demand for energy projects are huge across the world, huge infrastructure needs, especially in asia and africa. >> and what about this question of kind of research and technology and innovation? and what would you -- how do you
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see that in terms of how we can encourage that kind of innovation and research on new technologies? >> we made an analysis, how much the governments and the private sector is putting money in the research and development into new technologies. to be honest with you, despite all this discussion and rhetoric, in the last five years in real terms, there was no -- almost no increase in the r&d in -- across the world. what surprising also, when we talk about the -- we think about the r&d, research and development in clean energy, i personally thought before the analysis the bulge of it is coming from the private sector and less from the governments. but our analysts just chose opposite, bulge of r&d comes from the governments, 80%, and 20% from the private sector. there's a need for the private
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sector to be part of the game to push the clean energy technologies and energy efficiency. >> thank you, madam chair. >> thank you, senator smith. let me follow up on that to make sure i understood. your statement that the r&d in clean energy around the world. >> around the world. >> the vast majority of the funding, 80%, comes from government, 20% industry. >> exactly. >> that's worldwide. what about here in the united states? is that breakdown still about the same, about an 80/20 that we're not seeing the r&d in clean technology and development? >> i need to come back to you for that, madam chair, but worldwide it was a surprising result. >> yeah, it is. >> i thought when i read the interviews of the business leaders and so on, i thought it was the biggest part was coming from the industry and less from
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the public. but public was the main driver of the r&d in clean energy. >> it's very interesting. if you learn otherwise, and particularly on the u.s. side, i'd be curious to know about that. because that is -- that's not what typically we would think. you have referenced energy security many times. you know, we think about the security that comes with abundance of supply and how we can provide security that way. you've also referenced the electrification that we're seeing around the world. you highlight increasing digitalization of power systems that can assist with levels of efficiency that i think is important, but i think we also recognize that with these opportunities it can bring challenges, certainly when it comes to the issue of cybersecurity. you haven't really mentioned the role that that -- that that
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plays with these interconnected energy systems. can you speak a little bit as to how you think digitalization provides levels of benefit, but also vulnerabilities? >> in fact, it's an area that we just started to work, madam chair, very important. because digitalization energy, they are becoming more and more vulnerable. when we recently made that report. and michael dave turk, the former u.s. government official who recently joined our organization, was leading that work. what we have seen is that digitalization provides a lot of benefits by increasing the efficiency of our systems. we save a lot of money.
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we save a lot of activity. and we need to be, for example, less power plants than otherwise needed as a result of digitalization. we are reducing the demand and improving our power systems. this is very good, and this is something that will continue. with the -- it would help us to make, for example, the most out of the renewable energies as well. i mentioned that there is a mismatch between when the sun and wind are available, and when the electricity demand is the highest. so digitalization would help to address this mismatch as well. now, what this is very good, that our energy system, our economic system is becoming more and more digital, more and more interconnected through different devices. but this also raised the issue of cybersecurity as the surface
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attack is becoming much bigger in terms of the unexpected deceptions. it is an area that we are working with our governments how we can increase the resilience of our electricity systems in order to minimize such attacks. what kind of measures, regulatory and technical measures need to be taken in order to minimize the undesired effects of digitalization in terms of making our systems more vulnerable. this is a serious issue with the e electrificatioelectrification >> it is something we focus on here. as we work to enhance our systems and truly make them more efficient and make them more cost competitive, you realize
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you are also building in another level of vulnerability, if you will. one more area of vulnerability that i want to bring up, and i speak to a lot here in this committee, some years ago when we were more reliant on other nations for our sources of oil, we talked about that vulnerability. and it was not only energy vulnerability, but vulnerability for a security perspective, national security perspective. well, as you have pointed out, we're in a much better situation now, certainly with regards to oil and natural gas. and that undisputed position that you now refer to around the world coming from the united states. but there is another area where i see a growing vulnerability on others. and that is as it relates to our critical minerals, and our
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resources. the resources that we need to help build out, whether it is wind turbines, the lithium for the lithium ion batteries, the reality whether it's lithium, graphite, cobalt, nickel, these are what will allow us to help build out the battery, the storage capacity that when we're talking about elect -- electrification and moving to electric vehicles, we have to these sources, so i view it as a bottleneck of potential bottle mek that will allow us to, to make this transition or these, or these move to these other areas that you have referenced that you were referring to as
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upheav upheavals to what we are seeing with renewables. can you speak a little bit about that aspect of vulnerability, and where you see -- where you see the direction or the trend here? >> another excellent point, madam chair. if i may say so. with the -- the traditional fuel sources, oil and gas, the energy security is more or less well understood, and mechanisms are there for oil and gas. we have been working many, many years, and especially for natural gas with the g7 meeting in japan, we were asked by prime minister abe to look after the security, and cybersecurity, we are working on that. yet, another security issue. indirectly, but also very
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important in terms of energy, is the clean energy technologies. calls for copper, lithium, manganese, and it happens that, again, like the issue of the traditional resources several years ago, these are consumed in only a few number of countries. and again here resources, some of them are in latin america, latin american countries here, chile and bolivia. but china happens to be a country with a lot of reserves in that context. so it is -- when we're talking about the clean air technologies, this is very good, good for the environment, good for the domestic production. but one has to perhaps go one step further to think about where those things will come from, and what kind of security mechanisms we can develop in
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order to add this if some undesired problems arise as the terrorists of those technologies are concentrated only in a few number of countries. >> does iea not concentrate, necessarily, but do you factor in these vulnerabilities as you look to your world forecast? >> we mainly look at the vulnerabilities in terms of energy resources, oil, gas, electricity and renewables. but these are also important areas that needs further attention. >> thank you, i appreciate that. senator smith, further questions? >> no. >> i think i don't have any further questions. i'd just like to thank you very much, dr. birol, for your comments. this was quite interesting. and i'm very happy to be a part of this committee. >> we are delighted that you are a part of the committee. i've got one final question for you, dr. birol, before we
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conclude, and, again, i thank you for your time this morning. i have long maintained that nuclear in this country and part of our energy portfolio is significant, important. and we have seen -- we have seen the united states in our role with nuclear kind of, in my view, slack off in recent years. you know, we got one remaining construction project in nuclear, the plant in georgia. but you have indicated in your comments here this morning that china is coming on in a quite considerable and a substantial way.
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we've got the traditional nuclear in the global marketplace. we also have the role of advanced nuclear, and i think we're seeing some positive signs coming out recently in terms of these emerging technologies, and how they might factor in to the energy marketplace. but can you just share with the committee your view of how nuclear here in the united states factors in in these outyears, whether it be traditional nuclear, or the advanced nuclear opportunities? >> thank you very much, madam chair. i think nuclear is a technology worldwide, which can provide electricity, uninterrupted. without emitting carbon emissions.
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but after -- it became a challenge in many countries to build new nuclear power plants. the challenge is not only there, the challenge is also in the financing part of the equation to build new nuclear power plants. and even some countries like in the united states where electricity demand is low, where the gas prices are low, where the renewables are growing, to find even getting the electricity generation from nuclear is a big challenge. unless governments don't take any measures. so for the new builds, in my view, it will be very difficult to go with the traditional nuclear power plants. small model reactors can provide
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the opportunity to address the project management risks and financing problems. so this can be a solution. if i go from -- and i believe nuclear play in the u.s. and countries where it is accepted can play important roles in energy security and also for the issues can make a positive contribution. there is one more issue globally. as i said, as you also mentioned, in the u.s. we are building one only nuclear power plant in europe, the situation is similar in japan, similar, these countries were the main nuclear technology exporters until recently. but since they don't build nuclear power plants, they are forgetting how to build it, and china and russia are building a lot of nuclear power plants. and they will not only build nuclear power plants at home, but they may well be the countries who are exporting nuclear power technology to
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other countries, which is important from all perspectives. we have to look at the nuclear also, perhaps, from that angle as well, that the established nuclear technology exporter, such as u.s. and europeans and others, are facing strong challenge from china and russia for the other countries to build nuclear power plants. >> when you think about -- when you think about where nuclear has dominated, and again here in the united states, in europe, certainly in japan, that reversal, in a very, very short order, really in terms of the energy spectrum worldwide, and now moving that over to china and russia where we hadn't seen that much of a significant
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presence, it's really kind of an interesting phenomenon that it has moved as quickly and as -- i would say dramatically as it has in terms of moving the energy portfolios around. and i wonder whether -- and i'm just kind of talking off the top of my head here. but i wonder if an increased role and presence in russia, in china particularly, will promote or spur the united states to renew its efforts within -- within the nuclear space, or whether we continue to seed and take a backseat.
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it's not something that i think has been good. i greatly appreciate the role that nuclear plays in providing for not only a reliable power source, but a clean power source. and i regret that we are losing the skilled workforce, the level of leadership that we have played, not only from the production perspective, but how we then export the technologies and the smart people that come behind them. do you think that we change, or with low natural gas prices, we just continue in the direction that we are? >> i think natural gas is, of course, very good. it is cheap, renewables are also getting cheaper. but in my view, having a
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diversification, and nuclear, a position of nuclear in the u.s., a strong one, to keep that position is wise policy. i wouldn't let it go. but of course your government you serve to proceed with its policy. but it would be regrettable in my view of the united states being one of the leaders in the technology for years and years. it's developed in this country in the 1980s to give it up, that position, may not be the best way, in my personal view. >> do you see europe going back to more nuclear, or is that an irreversible direction? >> i think in many countries irreversible direction. but i think japan is going back slowly to nuclear power. but the biggest developments are coming from china and india. more than 90% of the new nuclear power plants are coming in the picture in the next years will
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come from china and india. and they'll build there, and the russians are building in europe and elsewhere several nuclear power plants. by building a lot of nuclear power plants, they are bringing the cost down, and making it cheaper, accessible to emergent countries. so it is, in my view, an energy issue, but maybe not only. >> one last question. i said my last one was going to be nuclear. you prompted another. that's regards to india. >> yes. >> you've focused your attention on the role that energy is playing in the market, and will india move towards more towards natural gas or coal or nuclear and where do you see the energy portfolio? >> i think that india is showing the images of all of the technologies that are policy, and they are pushing, especially na natural gas strongly, and once again to replace coal, but coal
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is also growing, because of india, and so much mentioned that it is more access to india and almost 200 million people have not accessed and some power plants from goal, and more and more natural gas, and more and more muk leer. they are pushing it in all of -- much more nuclear, and they are pushing it in france, and the government is pursuing it as a policy which is very good for the people, because it is very short period of time, almost 11 years, they are going to be bringing electricity, and it is a big, big achievement, and they are using gas, coal, and renewables and all of the technologies, and much more diverse, and i expect the share of gas would be more significant in the years to come. >> very interesting, and i will
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be looking forward to learning more are from this report that referen referenced earlier that are going to focus more on the nations that have perhaps greaterer vulnerabilities, because, they are more reliability on a single, a single energy resource either for production or for their consumption and what that means. so it is interesting to hear that with india, it ist truly one of the all of the above approaches to energy. i truly appreciate what you have shared with the committee. it is always good, and very important for us to understand what is happening with the global energy and the trends out there. as one who has been a strong proponent of u.s. energy productions, certainly within the oil and gas, it is, it is
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going to make me feel pretty good actually to the hear you say that of the four upheavals that you referenced, the first one is the u.s. being a leader in oil and gas production. in the few years that i have been here, we have gone from the reliance on oil on countries that we don't like and they don't like us. and we are truly in the driver's seat, and so that is significant, but it is also important for the committee to hear clearly the other areas that you have identified that the cost of renewables are moving quickly and that this
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direction that they are in solar and wind, and that cost factors in mightily in the direction that we move from a policy perspective and paying attention to what is happening in the world, and the leadership of china has been very easy for us to say that china is the big polluter out there, but when they are advancing policies that are keyed in on cleaner energy and energy sources and whether th that is again importing l & g in places like alaska and elsewhere, but to recognize their leadership in nuclear, and also the fourth point about the share of electricity growing faster than the other sectors of
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implication, and what that portends. a lot to think about as we begin the new year. u thank y thank you for your insight, and guidance and we look forward to learning more about you from these very important geopolitical issues in the energy space. you been most helpful and generous with your time, and we wish you safe travels when you return back to france. >> thank you very much, madam chair. >> with that, the committee stands adjourned.
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>> and so i would expect that he gets feedback from the senators or the governors, good, bad, indifferent, and he is going to get all of that, but your question of whether or not this pushes some who otherwise might have been inclined to be more cooperative at the negotiating table pushes them to a different spot is possible. i'm not, not part of those conversations. but, is he, is he generating conversation? yeah. so, i don't know, i think that
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we will see how it moves forwar forward. >> and how about the -- [ inaudible ]. >> i was hoping that you would ask. >> what is the late hest on the -- >> revenue sharing is one of those issues that for me as a producering state and as a coastal state revenue sharing has been something that i have introduced or been engaged in since i came here. so, i will continue to try to advance that conversation and the fact that there is a lott more who are now those with the issue for the first time in a
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long while, and the reality is that during the obama administration, there was not much conversation about the post prod production or much less revenue shake, because if you don't have production, you don't have any revenue to share, so i think that it does prompt more discussion about what revenue sharing might look like outside of the gulf states. >> have you had those in the past two weeks since the draft plan has come out? >> i have not. well, the draft plan was just last week, right? >> two weeks. it has been a blur. is it october already? no i have not had those specific conversations. >> what about the energy bill, because i know that you had mentioned that we will see them in january and it looks like the january schedule -- >> well, in fairness.
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i think that most of uses thought that tissues in front of us would have been dealt with already, and so that spot my plan. my plan was to have a much cleaner slate, and obviously lisa's plan did not have that, and so we will get beyond where we are right now with uncertainty and about funding the government and unsecertain e ti with the omnibus and uncertainty about all of these thing, and sooner is better obviously. we have a lot of things that we need to work on, and we need to get this done, and a lot of other issues that folks wants to get to, and daylight is a awasting. >> chairman, you want to do a number of things before that can happen, but do you have a a time line as to when things are going to start to happen? assurances of what will get done this year or next year?
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>> since the passage of the bill, we have all recognize ed that it is preliminary to any level of activity out there, and the folks over at interior have put together their teams, and they are working on things. but, before we can ask them for the time line here, they need to map it out. so we will have a further opportunity for that, but other than that schedule, there is nothing other than what we have put in the law, and this is the time frame of the sales, but most don't fully appreciate the extent of the preliminary work that the department has to conduct and set up and organize before you will see much of
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anything. and it is because this is, and i would call it a frontier area in the sense that -- [ laughter ] -- that is my secret refrigerator are there, and so no one has been allowed or permitted to explore this area here, and so we are setting up whole new process here. we have said that this is to be managed similar to the national petroleum are reserve in alaska, but having said that, it is not the npra and it is different and so there are going to be distinction, and so it is going to take some time, but we will keep the people posted on it. i was home this weekend, and i had a chance to visit with folks up there in fairbanks' area, and
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there was opportunities of what the transalaskan pipeline can bring and from the labor perspectives and the jobs and i will fully expect you to say that, well, are we moving it today and there is a level of pragmatism, and this is the new area, and this is the art tick, and we will be patient and wait, but hurry it up, and recognize that it does take time. >> and would you like to see further legislation on this -- >> and looking back at the limits on this. >> and so, keep in mind that we have a kind of laying the ground work for the prospect of opening up anwar for some time, and sitting with the people who live in the 1002 area, that town hall that i had in, back in april are i guess it was there, were
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concerns about the community of about, okay, how will this move forward and what environmental protections will we have, and will there be coastal impacts assistance like we had talked about in previous iterations of the anwar bill. as you know through the ways to get it through legislation, there are other things that we would like to provide by way of protection, and whether it is environmental or just process, and so, yes, we will be looking to do that. >> and you know, you can do anything with the appropriations process, right? but i think that it is important that we have a, because we have a process through the committee to take it up and there is no reason why.
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okay. so happy to be back. >> i look forward to seeing it in the committee and some -- >> no, no i counted health. >> but i think that i counted h health. >> but you have more members on health than energy, so check that one out. >> and you will have more women on your side, and that is definitely -- >> we have two over here. >> six over here. >> six here. >> yeah. but that is kind of good. and not kind of, but really. >> yes, and on the research i think that there is like in the appropriations db. >> i am sure that help, a -- health, there are two more members on health, and so don't give them that edge. women are taking over energy just what you are saying.
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bye-bye. the u.s. economy added about 200,000 jobs in january, and the unemployment rate is h 4.1% which is the lowest since year 2000 and those numbers were released by the bureau of labor statistics this morning. c-span where history unfolds daily and in 1979, c-span was created as a public service by america's cable television companies, and it is brought to you today by your satellite cable providers. treasury secretary steven mnuchin testified before the banking committee to outline the council's annual report to talk about the stability of the large banks and the financial institutions, he also answered questions on rush sharks and the gop tax bill signed la
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