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>> bucket, dry sketches >> affordable, go walk >> pants this is gps, the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you, live from new york what start today's program with iran striking back against israel with a barrage of drones and missiles. what is next in this highly dangerous for tat i talked to vali nasr and david sanger, plus treasury secretary janet yellen on her trip to china and ambassador rahm emanuel on the japanese prime minister state visit to washington dc i'll give you my take in a moment, but first, the breaking news, the world has wondered for two weeks how iran would respond to the attack that destroyed its consulate in damascus and

killed a handful of top military officials now we know last night's retaliation was a show of force with several hundred missiles and drones sent to attack israel. it was also the first time that iran has attacked israel directly from iranian soil but 99% of the drones and missiles were intercepted before they reach israeli territory. indeed, israel says there was a little damage and only one known casualty the big question is how is prime minister netanyahu thinking about this joining me now from tel aviv as cnn's chief international correspondent, clarissa ward. clarissa, welcome. what are you hearing about? what israel and prime minister netanyahu are thinking about what the situation is now and what do they do >> so for the war cabinet has

now been in session for just over an hour, we expect to hear a televised statement from prime minister benjamin netanyahu. once that wraps up, we have also heard a statement from the centrist for cabinet minister benny gantz, who describes putting together a regional coalition and acting to exact a price from iran at the time of israel's choosing, that we also know, of course that president biden has told prime minister netanyahu that the us will not be involved in any kind of a retaliation. he has urged israel not to escalate the situation further saying, take the win and for many here for read, this is being seen as a gift or a lifeline to prime minister netanyahu because it deflects away from the situation in gaza. israel increasingly isolated on the world stage and it also deflects from these protests that we have seen every single week. they have been gathering pace demands for

principle of prime minister benjamin netanyahu to step down on the the other hand, you have these sort of hardliners in his coalition they are pushing very hard for a big response. they say it's desperately important to re-establish deterrence, but important for our viewers to remember that they are not part of that war cabinet. and ultimately, it will be the three members of that war cabinet, the three observers who determine what the response will be. and we will likely learn more about that in the coming hours for aid >> thanks, clarissa, as always, terrific reporting now, let me bring in today's panel, david sanger covers the white house and national security for the new york times. and is a cnn political and national security analyst he also has an excellent new book out tuesday, which you should all read. it is called new cold war's, china's rise, russia's invasion, and america's struggled to defend the west valley. now, sir, is a professor of international affairs and middle east studies at johns hopkins school of

advanced international studies. >> volley, let me to begin with you. this, in some senses begins on april 1, when israel attacks that iranian embassy in damascus, the consulate building in the iranian embassy iran and israel had been having a shadow war in a sense, the each hitting various things or of the others. we ran through hezbollah in and other malicious. this was the break israel decided to actually attack what would technically under international law be considered iranian territory why do you think that happened? >> i think the iranian understanding, which is important here, was that this was a deliberate calculated step taken by israel, not in response to anything in particular. to divert attention from what was happening in gaza to help fix the rift between united states and israel over the gaza war. and essentially

to even draw the united states into the war in the middle east by baiting iran into a major reaction do you think volley the iranian reaction was major? it seems like they almost, they almost signal. this is what we're going to do almost roughly when we're going to do it. and they've just announced that it. this is the end of our response. >> well, it did create a dilemma for iran. iran could not just roll over and be seen within blights on population and in the region. to essentially taking such a provocative escalation from israel without responding. on the other hand, they did not want to throw a prime minister netanyahu a lifeline of basic shifting the attention from gaza to iran and syria, and even drying the united states into a war with iran so they had to react, but they had to react in a way where the emphasis was not really on retaliation, but on deterrence. and i think they deterrence was achieved not just by the

military actor carried out yesterday but essentially by the very effective psychological campaign that they managed through this escalation, both in israel and also in western capitals >> david, do you think that the israeli government is willing to take what when they have the air defenses were extraordinarily effective. it's worth pausing for a moment. just think about this has got to be the most successful air defense, 99% of these missiles intercepted are three layers of defense. the iron dome being the core of it some of it is rarely technology. much of it american technology will is well, you think, take the win or does bibi need to, does bibi netanyahu need to do something in return? >> my suspicion is fareed that he will feel great pressure to do something in return. and the question is, can he calibrate that to be modest enough that

we don't get into a cycle as you suggested, on the one hand, the iranians went into territory here they've never gone into before by doing a direct attack. they have basically gone all last step and no one will ever be able to stuff that back in the bottle. if the israelis debate in the future whether they could attack iran directly, they would probably cite this as the precedent on the other hand, it is the greatest ad for missile defense that we've ever seen in battle. i mean, here they were able to discriminate among 200 to 300 drones ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and have 99% success rate, at least from the early reports that's remarkable. and ten years ago would not have been the case and so the question is, could the israelis basically argue they have established deterrence? they've established the deterrence that comes from

making it clear to an adversary that they could not successfully attack even with an overwhelming number of missiles >> volley. what about this idea that in a way that clarissa pointed out that this has thrown a lifeline to benjamin netanyahu nobody is talking about gaza and nobody is talking about the famine, the which the samantha power, the director of usa id, says has already begun in gaza the western world certainly has coalesced around israel to support it >> isn't this >> at some level of candy iranian miscalculation? >> well, if it continues, but it does come at a huge cost. in other words, a for tat process does put enormous amount of psychological pressure on israeli public, which were in a high state of anxiety the past week. it does tax israel's economy every time let me it goes into high alert. and we

saw that it also got the international community, european capitals, washington, extremely worried about an uncontrolled escalation in the region so it's not as if you keep going down the path of escalation with iran is cost-free for israel. and i think last week he had a lot of diplomatic engagement with iran to persuade them to calibrate their response. and now israel is also going to face similar kind of pressure from the international community to calibrate this response because nobody wants an unchecked escalation between iran and israel. and i think all the international pressure is going to be on iran and israel to observe certain red lines which then will take us back if essentially to the gaza war because i would expect that in a week's time if we don't see a major escalation that this will be tamped down all right. >> stay with us. we're going to come back when we come back, i will ask david sanger and

valine, are sir, where this where this gaza war will go and where the rift between joe biden and benjamin netanyahu stands. and will it will it get exacerbated when we come back? >> fareed zakaria gps brought to you by fisher investments. clearly different money management at fisher investments. we may look like other money managers, but we're different. >> and how >> so we're a fiduciary, obligated to act in our client's best interests. so we don't sell any commission-base d products, >> then how do you make money? we have a simple management fee structured, so we do better when our clients do better the clients really come first, then >> yes, we make them a top priority by getting to know their finances, family, health, lifestyle, and more. >> well, maybe we are different at fisher investments were clearly different >> when you're the leader and

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wants to show unwavering, unqualified support for israel. >> and yet he has had deep >> reservations about bibi netanyahu is worst strategy are urging him to be more restrained, more targeted to be careful not to escalate. my understanding getting in there are some reporting on this that they counsel the israelis against the kinds of escalation that involve the attack on iran's facilities. got a consular facilities in damascus where does that relationship stand? and will biden you think be able to have any influence on israeli policy, which so far he seems to have had limited influence that's right for you. i mean, i would say that biden has been extraordinarily frustrated in his dealings with bibi netanyahu, in part because every time that he has gone to counsel some form of advice that israel was not acting as long-term interests that it

needed to allow in more than it needed to put off a certain military strikes that it needed to stop using 2000 pound bombs and crowded urban areas he was basically ignored. and just before this incident unfolded, of course, you saw biden hit a breaking 0.1 in which he said, if you don't follow our advice, including on not attacking in rafah, this could require a broad rethinking of the relationship. so the breach was pretty open. the question now is, does it remain that way or can he use this as a turning point since it was the us that was there helping intercept missiles last night one of the big questions is, who else can we bring into this? he's meeting the g7 today, but missing in that fareed are the two countries that have the most influence with iran

russia, and china and i argue in new cold war's, but we've also discussed dusted other, other moments that the defining moment, the defining issue in this particular moment is that at, at this point, the allies who sat or the countries that sat with the us to try to restrain iran and it's nuclear program, 789 years ago have now flipped over to the other side and iran and russia are part of the so-called axis of resistance. >> volley i noticed that the washington asked china to restrain iran washington has no influence with russia, but do china and russia, they do seem to act broadly speaking in concert in the sense that as david says, they are all opposed to the kind of american lead world order and middle eastern balance of power. but does does russia or china do

russia, china have influence with iran? >> i mean, the short answer is yes, they have much more influence with iran now that say europeans are the united states has. but as david points out in his excellent book this brewing cold war between us china, and russia now becomes much more common complicated when you actually need their help in something with iran, they may have their own interests. why they don't want a war with the middle east, but they're not just going to be letter carriers for washington without being engaged on also issues that matters to them. and also the difference between with gaza, with what's happening with iran is that they're the usa influence with israel was about how israel handle the war and what it meant for global public opinion or domestic public opinion. but the escalation with iran could potentially actually get the

united states into a war and that really does feature on china and russia's own calculations when they themselves are at odds with the united states. so the us has to have a much more comprehensive view of these sets of global relations and think in terms of the middle east as part of that global arrive, larry with russia and china >> david, as you, as you pointed out in your book, it really is a sea change from ten years ago, obama administration, russia and china, were effectively allied with the united states in in putting sanctions on iran than the iran nuclear deal, in which all the security council major powers joined together. and now here you have russia and china as part of the axis of resistance you touch on this in your book, henry kissinger always felt that one of the core goals of american foreign policy should be to avoid russia and china forming an alliance to heightened the

divisions between russia and china. do you think that that is still a strategy left for the us? i mean, is there a way and it really be it took to win china to have a better working relationship with china. and when it off, it's unqualified support for russia >> it's the sort of defining question of this time for reed. and i'm glad you, you raised it because kissinger is idea by doing the opening to try hi, there nixon's of course, was to create that division and it worked four, 60 or more years. >> what's >> happened now is that we missed to some degree russia's move toward authoritarianism. and we the to understand that it would be taking over territory. we made a parallel mistake with china and then we were pretty slow to recognize the degree to which they were coming together. putin and xi of met more than 40 times

president biden has met putin one time in his time in office, and that will probably be the last one so we're at a moment right now where the strategy we need to look at is, how do you contain the worst aspects of their behavior? but also so prevent them from working together. and that's the new mission in washington. and so far i would have to say we are not very far down that road in developing that strategy. >> volley very quickly before we go, i got to ask you, iran is also in the midst of a kind of leadership change, right? i mean, there's a stock about what happens after the supreme leader who is the longest-serving, i think leader in the world right now, what happens after he goes? i unfortunately of 30 seconds would give us a quick preview. two of what's happening >> it's going to be definitely a big change for iran anytime a

leader of that long duration leaves, there's going to be changed, but more key is that all iranians, including the supreme leader or are aware of it. and i think at this point in time, he prefers stability rather than tumult regional issues, domestic issues, because a succession goes much better if iran is not at war with israel or the united states and isn't a matter much better position that does give an opening to the west if you would, to try to manage relations with iran vali nasr, david sanger very smart analysis. thank you so much. i will be back with my take next >> debris, this guy, parents, husbands and wives? i wish i could've done something differently. you can just make it better for those that follow space shuttle columbia, the final flight, two part finale tonight at nine on skin craving. next level hydration, new neutrogena, hydro boost, water cream of vital boost of

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my tick >> for a third straight month, inflation has been higher than expected suggesting that the federal reserve will find it difficult to lower interest rates, which could slow down the economy and that endangers present biden's reelection prospects economists aren't shorts to why inflation has persisted. some of it is surely a persistent hangover from the pandemic. >> but some of it >> could well be that a feature of recent economic policy of both the trump and biden administrations? has been to ask consumers to pay more for goods and services both administrations goose the economy with large pandemic relief packages, which without question added to inflationary pressures. >> but beyond those >> bills, which have by now probably work their way through the system there is another possible cause. donald trump had few tangible achievements in office but he can credibly point to breaking with decades of bipartisan economic policy

on tariffs trump raise tariffs on china, as well as on many of america's closest allies. in the west while candidate biden criticize those tariffs, president biden has kept most in place in addition, the biden administration has imposed tight by america provisions in large spending bills such as the inflation reduction act and the infrastructure act all of these policies ask americans to pay more to achieve certain political goals. less dependence on china, greater resilience subsidizing green energy, boosting domestic manufacturing even the ira as three economists have persuasively shown, is about five times more expensive as a way to cut carbon emissions compared to a simple carbon tax all of the political goals biden is promoting might well be worthwhile. but they do come at a cost. and one wonders of the cost will be permanently

higher inflation the tariffs are the most egregious of all these policies despite trump's rhetoric to the contrary, they are attacks on american consumers. us customs and border protection estimates that so far americans have paid more than 230 billion in these taxes in addition, tens of billions of dollars have been handed out to farmers to compensate for their losses in agricultural exports as a consequence of china's retaliatory tariffs it's hard to find anyone who believes that tariffs have been effective they have not altered china's policies. one iota, and they have cost the american economy in money and lost jobs. according to the tax foundation, each year, the tariffs cost the us nearly 200,000 jobs and of its gdp, or roughly 70 billion in annual output. >> or to put it another >> way, enacting a modest set

of liberalization policies proposed by the peterson institute in 2022 would reduce inflation by about 1.3 percentage points, which works out to almost $800 colors of savings poor american household the office of the us trade representative promise to review the tariffs to determine whether they have been effective or not. it has been working with this review now for over two years with no end in sight despite apparently having little on its agenda these days since it has abandoned in its core business of promoting trade a senior administration official confessed to me that the reason is that if the ustr admits that the tariffs have failed, it will also have to recommend that they be lifted, which the biden team does not want to do. >> there >> is also a foreign policy costs to this rising protectionism in america. president biden met with his japanese counterpart this week in a bid to strengthen the alliance between america and one of its longest and closest

allies. and yet his administration has announced its staunch opposition to a japanese company money buying us still a company that has been foundering for years and as a shadow of the behemoth, it once was nippon steel, the japanese company, promises to invest in us steel honore its labor contracts and retain all its workers into 2026 in short, it would rescue an under-performing american company. but for the biden administration, it seems the optics are more important than the substance the conventional, wisdom of the last several years has been that america hollowed-out its manufacturing by embracing globalization and efficiency, which in turn led to the rise of right-wing populism that argument doesn't stand scrutiny since countries like germany and france, which protected workers and invested massively retraining have also seen right-wing populism, boom

declines in manufacturing are part of the economic rise of countries. notice that even china, which has prized its factories above all else, has seen manufacturing decline as a share of its economy from 32% in 2011 down to 20 8% in 2022 >> people around >> the world, especially in america, have gotten used to the dramatic declines and costs that globalization has brought them over the past three decades. the cost of clothes, appliances, telecommunications, and air travel have all plummeted in that period it's been easy to pocket these gains and complain about the ills of trade but inflation hits everyone, not just a small percentage of unemployed. and when people are forced to bear the costs of higher prices, they tend to lash out at those in power what an irony it would be if policies designed to keep popular at bay end up punishing mainstream politicians instead

>> go to >> cnn.com slash free for link to my washington post column this week next on gps. >> treasury secretary janet yellen is fresh back from china, and i asked her about her trip and whether anything important was accomplished tonight on night of space for stoma whole story with anderson cooper, the james webb telescope are we followed by the two part finale, space shuttle columbia, both final flight tonight, starting at eight on cnn >> verizon, small business days are coming april 22 to the 28th. get our free tech check and special offers and deals. don't miss out >> partner with our experts today

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>> treasury secretary janet yellen was in china to stress that washington doesn't seek to decoupled from beijing. but she also went to press china on what she calls it's unfair trade practices such as flooding the global market with cheap subsidized products like electric vehicles and solar panels. so what did she achieve on her trip? and where does it leave us china relations? secretary yellen joins me now. welcome, madam secretary >> let me ask >> you, when you talk to the chinese do you have much leverage? because in a sense you have all the trump tariffs still in place. there are additional ones you have export restrictions, you have the chip ban. would there's already american tariffs on chinese evs, electric vehicles so are you threatening more tariffs when you tell them what we want you to change your behavior or else

>> well, look, we're concerned about the possibility of surges in chinese exports to our market in areas where they have a great deal of overcapacity. and so i wouldn't take anything off the table as a potential response. but we really want to responsibly manage this relationship and i think that entails i'm being very clear at the most senior levels with the concerns we have and trying to engage in joint discussion that helps us avoid misunderstanding in the case of overcapacity and certain areas of manufacturing. we agreed to launch an intensive exchange on

balanced growth in the domestic and global economies i've been very clear in my discussions with them this is a concern not only to us, but also to other countries, to europe, to japan and even to emerging markets. india, mexico, brazil so we want to talk about our concerns honestly you know we have a complex relationship. >> you also spoke about >> their relationship with russia. and i think it's pretty clear that one of the reasons the russian economy has been able to survive phelie intense western sanctions has been china, they've been able to trade with the indians, the jokes and such, but the chinese, particularly in the technology spirit area, have been the crucial supplier. do you get the sense that the chinese government listen to you or do you imagine there will be any change in chinese

policy towards russia well, we've been extremely clear and i was clear at the highest levels in my meetings. the united states will not tolerate violations of our sanctions by chinese banks who are firms that are eating russia in its war against ukraine in that if that's done, that there will be consequences. but did they did the chinese seem responsive? do you expect up chinese policy to change? >> i think they clearly heard are concerns and will consider them very carefully >> let me ask you about what i talked about in my opening commentary. it does seem the biden administration is acting at cross purposes at once to bring inflation down. and yet, when you look at the biometrika provisions, you look at the

tariffs, you look at the so many of the requirements. i think i'm quoting president biden correctly when he said it used to be, we looked for the cheapest possible place to get goods now we want it all made in america. the body doesn't say is often that means at significantly higher price are you are june pursuing policies that inevitably will lead to some structural inflation well, it may push up prices a little bit, but i think when you take a hard look at the numbers >> it's very modest influence on inflation. and i think it's critically important that we create jobs in the united states good manufacturing jobs in an industry that is going to be increasingly important we've had parts of the united states that have industrial production is hollowed out and partly as a

consequence of surging imports from china in the early 2000s after trying joined the wto. and we want to engage in trade. that's mutually beneficial. there needs to be a level playing field and china's agreed with us on that. and we're concerned about areas with the playing field clearly is not level china is directing massive subsidies through their industrial policy on an ongoing basis. and when the demand is in, there, the chinese firms do not go bankrupt, is american firms do they stay? in the market and that can succeed in depressing prices to the point where i'm very competitive.

american firms can be driven out of business and europe, japan, and other countries feel the same madam secretary, always a pleasure to have you on. thank you >> thank you. free >> next on gps, america's other most important relationship in asia, japan. i will talk to ambassador the to tokyo, rahm emanuel, and we come back >> we sent you to america, so you could be on there's treachery within our ranks >> maybe there is no spy >> only the spy says there's no spy. the sympathizer streaming exclusively on max shingles. some described it as an intense burning sensation or an unbearable edge. this painful, blistering rash could also disrupt your work time with family. shingles could also lead to long-term debilitating nerve pain. they can last for months or even years. >> if you >> over 50 virus that causes

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bucket, dry sketches portable, go walk pants >> ukraine today may be east asia tomorrow those were the words delivered by japan's prime minister fumio kishida at a news conference this week at the white house during his state visit to the us can she does words underscore increasing tensions between china and its neighbors and escalating fears of a military confrontation either in the south china sea or taiwan. that was the context of a trilateral meeting at the white house. this week between kishida biden and ferdinand marcos junior, the precedent of the philippines joining me now to discuss the visit and the us's relationship with japan is rahm emanuel, currently the us ambassador to japan. welcome mr. ambassador. >> first, can i make you >> pleasure first, can i begin by asking you a broader question, which is japan seems to be back 30 years ago. he taught this was the asian

behemoths that was going to take over the world economy, then went into a 30-year stagnation, but things seem to have turned around in a big way. the stock market is finally where it was at its peak in 1989 >> did do >> is that palpable when you are in japan >> yes and no, i think it's equally not only it's a stock market up its major companies are investing across the globe. it's, we're doing today, highlighting the investments here in north carolina, 13 any point, $9,000,000,000 investment by tyotkino in an ev factory. so technologically it's making major advances economically, it's making meghan, advances. and then something important for us as, as america in re-emphasizing are permanent pacific power and presence our partner in this and our major partners, japan, they're the most trusted country in the region among the population. they've doubled their defense budget to become the third largest spender

they're acquiring. very important 400 tomahawk counter strike capability. they're going to invest in a new joint operations center. and then the week just think of it this week we started with a naval exercise in the philippines, south china sea with the united states, australia, japan, the philippines. we had a major diplomatic ever trilateral meeting between the united his and the philippines led by president biden. and we're closing out the week with a historic military exercise between the united states, japan, and south korea that tells you what this lattice architecture looks like. and the constant for the united states in the asia there's japan and they don't want to just be regional. they're going to be a global partner for us in the preservation of democracy and the rule of law >> let's do the government's you talked to worry that come november, you may have a very different president who has a very different view of america's role in the world yeah, yes, it no. >> i >> mean, the one thing is we're

putting our roots down very strongly in the investments in the diplomatic >> area of the development area and the defense area. but make no doubt the president has a view of idolize and alliances that's different then donald trump and those are concerned. now, japan's doing things betting on the united states as that partner and you have to have a view and i will tell you this, having been in the region two years, that's a home game for china it's a distinct game for the united states, its own away game. >> you need >> our friends in the region to make it a home game. so the idea that you're going to confront china alone from just a spatial point makes no sense from a geo-strategic sense, it makes a place that makes no sense so i would just say we're betting on our allies and our allies are betting on us. it's not a one-way bet and they can, that it's gonna be important for the united states, the credibility or effectiveness to backing up our claims of being

a permanent pacific power and presence is betting on the fact that we have allies in the region who want the united states to be a counter anchor to china's aggression. they are in a conflict with india, a conflict with the philippines, a conflict with china, and a conflict with us when we try to make sure the rule of law is the policy wanted, it goes to normal international exercises and operations in waters. so i would just tell you we actually benefit from our allies and our allies benefit for months so let me ask you about on the strategic sayyed, if china would use military force in taiwan, are you confident that japan would militarily >> respond in a significant way? >> i think we there's not a clear answer on that, and japan said that i think in a sense of ambiguity, i do think what there's two lessons to be learned. one is before you even get there. credible deterrence and that's what china is

getting frosty about. and is being the rhetoric. it's getting hot because they see all the allies working together in this lattice structure that the united states is assembling and replacing the hubs and spoke second japan's investment and its cadre strike capability brings a level of deterrence. china had not seen her calculated on as recently as a year ago and third, the type of exercises we're doing, not just in the southern tip islands of okinawa, but also in the philippine area, makes a strategic challenge on taiwan deterrence is the most important on the other hand, it's not lost on japan. that post speaker pelosi is visit to taiwan when there was those major exercises by the prc that they fired five missiles into the japanese easy right off of taiwan. that just an exercise around taiwan. but they did something into japan's eez. so japan took note of that. and that was an aggressive step by

china. and so we understand the consequences of the taiwan strait to japan's own economic security so japan has a value at of vested interest in a strategic interest in the rule of law and abiding by international standards being adhered to by china, which is why the credibility of our collective deterrence, not singular collective is so essential to america's security and the security of our allies >> my thanks to rahm emanuel for joining me. and thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week >> there's debris in this guy, parents, husbands and wives, sky. >> i could have done something differently. you can just make get better for those that follow space shuttle columbia, the final flight, two part finale tonight at nine on cnn, i brought in a jew or max protein with 30 grams of protein. those who tried me felt more energy and just to

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