hello, everyone. i'm kate bolduan. thanks so much for joining me. a brand new look at the current state of the democratic race for president. just out this morning, a new cnn poll shows joe biden is bouncing back. warren and sanders are battling for second. and kamala harris, where did you

go? take a look. biden has regained a double digit lead in the new national poll out from cnn that's almost double his closest rivals, bernie sanders and elizabeth warren. kamala harris is down to 5% support right now. that is on the national stage. on the ground in the early state of iowa, joe biden is hitting the air waves for the very first time with this tv ad. >> we know in our bones this election is different. the stakes are higher. the threat more serious. we have to beat donald trump. and all the polls agree joe biden is the strongest democrat to do the job. no one is more qualified to restore the soul of the nation. battered by an erratic vicious bullying president, strong, steady, stable leadership. biden, president. >> joining me right now, cnn senior political writer and analyst, hairy anten, who is also the co heft of the brand new and fabulous --

>> plug the podcast. >> the forecast. thank you for being here. there has been quite a bit of movement since our last cnn poll on this. tell me what you see. >> lock at this. after the first debate we saw biden sort of falling down. but now compared to where he is, he's up 7 percentage points. kamala harris had a big bump after the first debate and she got all the way up to 17. she was in second. now she's back down to 5th% and basically a tie for fourth place. sanders and warren sort of in a two-way tie for second place, around 15%. >> i want to know where you want to take this. i am constantly interested in the question of what matters most to you. is it a candidate that agrees with you on the issues or is it a candidate that you think can beat donald trump. >> so basically what we see is we see this big divide by age on this question. and what we see is that those under the age of 45, sharing the positions on your issues is most important, 56% to 41%.

>> that's so dramatically different. >> look how big it is among those age 45 and old f. 66% say beating donald trump is more important. and given that this edge is so much longer among the 45 plus age group. strong chance of beating donald trump is beating shares your positions on the issues and that is a clear dividing line so far. >> for folks that this is most important, who are they going for? >> i think that this is -- if you look at this divide, this is amazing. so we break this down. so among those who say that beating donald trump is more important than major issue agreement, we see joe biden is crushing the field. he has a 20 point lead over his nearest competitor elizabeth warren. he's getting 35% of the vote. versus if you say major issue agreement is more important than beating donald trump, we basically have this very, very tight race between joe biden and bernie sanders. >> that's interesting. >> so this is the key thing that is elevating joe biden right now. that is why in iowa in that ad

he is hitting on this issue, because beating donald trump is what is pro pelg him in the lead. >> so if i'm being asked and i say what is most important to me right now is beating donald trump, most folks are also then going for joe biden. >> the plurality of folks are going for joe biden. the majority of his own support is coming from this column. >> is it remaining the same that that is still the biggest priority, the most important thing is beating joe biden over the issues? is that where things stand still? >> that to me, beating donald trump is still the -- >> sorry, donald trump. >> beating donald trump, this has remained the constant as we just sort of go back. this has continuously been the number one thing. it still is number one, 54% in our poll said that this was more important than this, sharing your positions. and that is why joe biden has held a constant lead in the race so far. >> good to see, thank you. with me now, cnn political director david chalian and cnn

political reporter ar leet seanz. what are you hearing from the campaign about the numbers? >> this is certainly welcome news to the biden campaign. and just going off the point that you and harry were talking about, the fact that the majority of those polled in this poll think that it's important that they pick a nominee that can take on president trump, that bolsters joe biden's argument that he's been making since day one of this campaign, with that first video ad that ran on digital where he talked about this campaign is a battle for the soul of the nation. you have that new ad today airing here in iowa that really hones in on electability. he's talking about president trump -- or a narrator in the ad talking about president trump is an erratic vicious bully and trying to paint joe biden as the strong stable leader. and so these poll numbers are really backing up the central message that biden has had throughout

president trump and they believe that it's joe biden for that position. >> and david, one of the other interesting things coming out of this poll is kamala harris down 12. what is the message here that you're getting from that and for her campaign? >> again, national picture that we're looking at right now. this poll to me shows like a snap back to where we were before the first debate. what i think we're learning here is debates can matter to a point. that poll that we're comparing it to, kate, was taken in the immediate aftermath when kamala harris delivered that punch to joe biden over busing. and she got a bunch of positive press coverage out of that and he had a bunch of negative headlines about his debate performance and that's when that snapshot was taken. so now what we're seeing past a couple of series of debates now is we're returning a bit to where we were before. biden is back up, double digit lead.

kamala harris back down to the sing sing single digits where she was before. >> super interesting. and arlette, what i was talking about with harry, on what democrats say is the most important issue consistently still, at least right now, is beating donald trump. something you're talking about. biden is far and away the candidate that they support when it comes to that issue. jill biden clearly sees that, telling a group of teachers in new hampshire, for our viewers let me play it, this yesterday. >> i know that not all of you are committed to my husband and i respect that. your candidate might be better on, i don't know, health care than joe is. but you've got to look at who is going to win this election and maybe you have to swallow a little bit and say, okay, i sort of personally like so-and-so better, but your bottom line has to be that we have to beat

trump. >> it's a surprising statement to hear from jill biden that she didn't just say it once. she really made the point a couple of times there in that statement. is the biden campaign wincing at that today? what are they saying? >> well, they haven't exactly responded to those comments from jill biden. but as you heard at the top of the clip she acknowledged that she was speaking to people in that room who may not be committed to joe biden, maybe considering other candidates. she's making this explicit argument that's been central to boyden's campaign as we talked about before, that they feel that the top message needs to be that defeating president trump needs to be central to democrats choices. and it's not so often that you hear a spouse of a candidate speak so candidly, but this is the message that she is out there delivering and you're seeing eek owed today in the campaign ad for iowa. they're trying to frame this campaign as one between joe biden and president trump, they hope. >> david, what did you think

seeing jill biden speak like that? >> yeah, it was shocking to hear sort of the inside voice out loud. i think there's no doubt. look at what they are putting dollars behind in that iowa ad. they literally show poll graphs in the ad saying that he's the one -- >> that's a good point. i hadn't thought about that. >> -- that can beat trump. normally you hear politicians say the only poll that matters is on election day. their argument is you can't get anything else done if donald trump is still sitting in the oval office. and so go with the guy that has the best chance of defeating him. to hear joe biden say it, it was so concrete, just how much they see electability as a strength that they want to lean in here, followed by this paid advertisement. this is where they want to keep the conversation. >> look, someone else who is pushing something of a message just like that, it might not be

what you want but it's what you need. we heard that from donald trump in the last rly that he had. his whole line of when it comes to the economy, like me or hate me, like it or hate it, you've got to stick with me. it's a strange campaign strategy that's playing out on both sides. >> yes, donald trump clearly making that argument to his base in the rally, but also trying to make that to the broader general electorate as well. and you are right, joe biden leaning into the argument if you don't like me, if you don't agree with me on all issues, put it to the side, democrats. you need me to beat donald trump. >> super interesting. great to see you guys. thanks david and arlette. coming up for us, the white house now considering new moves to stave off an economic downturn. this after president trump declared there is nothing to worry about when it comes to the economy. a new report from the white house coming up. plus just as the president is considering more troop withdraws over asseseas, a new

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the white house. everyone from the president on down all day sunday and monday

were saying nothing to see here when it came to the economy. the economy is better than ever. >> the united states right now has the hottest economy anywhere in the world. >> but behind-the-scenes, cnn's katilan collins is reporting that the white house has been discussing a potential payroll tax cut to help stave off an economic slowdown. let's get over to the white house to figure out what's going on. boris sanchez is there. how serious are these talks? >> reporter: kate, from what we understand these talks about a potential payroll tax cut are still in the early stages. the white house publicly has denied that they're under consideration at this time. but this belies what we've heard from white house officials over the last few days, including the sound bite you played from president trump there. we've heard from wilbur ross, kellyanne conway, larry kudlow all saying the funneledmentles

are strong. th larry kudlow is scheduling talks this week with business leaders to get their input on the state of the economy to find out how they feel about the future of the economy moving into 2020. that plays a big part of this. the white house has said that those calls were scheduled before, previous to any concern about the economy becoming part of the national dialogue. but we know that president trump is closely watching this. he's spoken to aides about his concerns that this trade war with china could impact his reelection chances going into 2020. u.s. steel is shedding jobs. there are indicators in the stock market the sales of rvs are trending down. there are all sorts of indicators that there could be a recession and it could be a harm on what the president feels is his strongest argument for another four years at the white house. we will likely hear from the president today. he's welcoming the president of romania to the white house for the second time since june of 2017. reporters will almost certainly ask him about this. we'll see what he says, kate.

>> great to see you. thank you. joining me now is diane swamp, a chief economist at grant thornten. thanks for being here. what do you think, if it's something we are debating, what do you think of a payroll tax cut? smart idea right now? >> i think it's something you do want to have if the economy facilitiers. i'm not sure you should do it right now. it is something we've used in the past and you would want to limit it by income strat is so that low and middle income households get it. that said, it's a little disingenuous to say the economy is fine but plan for a recession but i do think it's prudent to hedge your downside. i don't think it's prudent to do it by hammering the fed and that is undermining your potential to fight a recession down the road because you undermine the credibility of the federal reserve. what we have is an economy where the consumer is carrying us right now and the question is can that continue are they going to collapse under the burden of that weight?

>> and the last time a payroll tax cut happened was during the obama administration. is that an apples to apples comparison to the real impact then and what it would mean today? >> that was certainly an extraordinary situation that was very severe. so i would hope it's not comparable. people forget it's almost the amnesia of the shock of the accident, the train wreck that we experienced in the great recession and the global financial crisis. it's amazing how people forget what happened 11 years ago and 10 years ago. but that said, where we are today, the economy is slowing. it's not yet faltered. it is the risk of recession that are clearly rising and it is prudent to think about how do we deal with it, but what's most prudent is to think about how do we deal with this globally? one of the reason we look better is because other economies are teetering on recession. >> the downside of the tax cut is potentially an impact on

social security. how long of a deal when you look at kind of the ballooning deficits that we're looking at right now, how big of a deal is that right now? >> it's always a big deal to me. but if you're in a recession -- i'm sorry, you just have no throw that to the sidelines. right now what's amazing is how much we squandered to the tax cuts that were not really thought out. and to put that much stimulus in and not get that much bang for the dollar, that really was a wasted opportunity and has left us with an unfair burden going into the next recession, and less wiggle room to use fiscal stimulus when we really need it. >> and there are a lot of warning signs out there. one that grabs my attention particularly is the manufacturing of rvs, the center of the country's rv industry is where i grew up. and "wall street journal" is reporting that shipments of rvs are down 20% this year so far

and that's on top of a drop last year. one quote just for our viewers from the journal piece, from an economist at ball state university and he says that the rv industry is better at calling recessions than economists are, not talking about you, though, diane. what does this data point, if you will, what does it tell you? >> well, we come from the same part of the country. i'm from the detroit area. yes, the manufacturing sector is also contracting right now. they're closing steel plants in michigan. they've permanently closed as of the end of july a lot more vehicle plants in michigan and ohio. and the manufacturing recession, although it doesn't mean what it once did, we have a service sector that's still moving forward. but that showing a little bit of a slowdown. so the question is how much can we take and how much does all of the effects snowball into an actual recession? and the reality is that's why the fed is so concerned, because we're looking at the head winds from abroad and how they can show up on our own shores and

we're trying to push back on the uncertainty that this administration has created on trade policy by lowering interest rates to offset the uncertainty tax it's put on the economy and shore up the confidence of not only businesses, but the consumer. whether we can do it with the tools they've got, that will be seen. >> diane, thanks so much. >> thank you, kate. >> still to come, a troubling new government report out detailing that isis is resurging. where secretary of state mike pompeo says there are places the terror group may be stronger today than a few years ago. ♪ boom goes the dynamite, ♪ feels like i'm taking flight. ♪ [sfx: poof] [sfx: squeaking eraser sound effect.] ♪ i am who i wanna be ♪ ♪ who i wanna be ♪ who i wanna be. ♪ i'm a strong individual ♪ feeling that power ♪ i'm so original, ♪ ya sing it louder. ♪ i am, ooo ooo ooo ooo ♪ ehhh ehhh ehhh pre-order and get more.

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president trump declared the isis cal fit defeated last summer and he was talking about the physical territory under isis control and that was one reason behind his decision to dramatically pull back troops from syria. but now the pentagon says the terror group is, quote, resurging. a recent pentagon inspector general report says ice is not only gaining strength, but it is also targeting a massive refugee camp for recruitment, mobilizing 15,000 fighters in iraq and syria and it's building up its war chest. secretary of state mike pompeo was asked about this today and here's what he said. >> it's complicated.

there are certainly places where isis is more powerful today than they were three or four years ago, but the cally fate is gone in their capacity to conduct external attacks has been made much more difficult. we've taken down significant risk. not all of it. >> joining me right now, cnn military and diplomatic analyst john kirby and cnn correspondent barbara starr. barbara, this is coming from an inspector general at the pentagon warning about the resurgence of isis in syria. tell us more what this report says. >> well, what they're really laying out is what senior commanders have been talking about for the last several months. the territory that isis once controlled across iraq and syria, now very largely no longer under isis's unilateral control. but when you have 15,000 fighters, when you have 70,000

displaced persons in camps, this becomes very fertile recruiting ground for isis to regroup. what the generals have been saying for the last several months is you are going to have gore ril la attacks, suicide bombers and isis migrating into north africa where it's been operating for some time and in recent years up in afghanistan. so this is going to be the challenge that the u.s. faces. can isis stage a 9/11 type attack on u.s. soil? hopefully not. but they can destabilize an awful lot of territory. >> and john, you heard what mike pom said that in some places they're stronger and then you have an estimated 15,000 fighters in iraq and syria. what does it mean to you? >> it means that isis remains a viable terrorist network. we were always also a network and we're seeing that that network is still viable and still able to metastasize it's

ideology and resources well beyond and into north africa. but the report if you look at it offers some very worrisome signs for iraq and syria. iraq in particular where it notes that the defense forces have not been able to contain isis in the northern parts of the country and that isis is actually trying to exacerbate the tensions that exist between the iraqi security forces and the kurdish forces up in the north. so i'm deeply concerned about where they're going to iraq as well. >> both of you have mentioned afghanistan. this comes at a time when the president is considering withdrawing from afghanistan where isis has become a really threat there as well. how, barbara, is this impacting to you think those conversations? >> well, the president has made it very clear that after some 18 years he wants to see that forever war, as some people

might call it, end, and he wants to bring u.s. troops home and he's talked about bringing them home before the 2020 presidential election. but for most presidents have learned over the years that politics doesn't always dictate the best military policy. and he's being told by pentagon officials don't bring all the troops home just yet. leave some there to deal with this counterterrorism threat presented by isis. and that attack over the weekend in kabul that killed and injured so many in that wedding party hall, that was a clear indicator that isis still, once again, can reach out where it chooses to. and that means they have people, they have money, they have organization and they are able to muster their fighters. that would be very concerning. afghanistan remembers the place where the 9/11 attacks emanated from. >> the man walking into the wedding with the suicide vest on

and you can see the aftermath video of how much death and destruction he was able to pull out. john, we've also learned here that one refugee camp in northeast syria is a huge camp of 70,000 people that isis has started infiltrating that. that's the population, just trying to put it in some perspective, that's the population of wilmington, delaware. it would be that many people. what are the options for the u.s. military there? >> well, right now very limited. in fact, one of the things the report notes and our own reporting at cnn notes, is that because we pulled more troops out of syria, we have decreased our ability to monitor security at that camp and it's being largely done by syrian democratic forces. so there's virtually no security. as a matter of fact, isis elements inside that camp are in fact providing security. police forcing, conducting beheadings and assassinations at

will, instructing the young people there. so it's a really worrisome development in that camp and it speaks to the degree to which isis is not just about physical ground, but it is about ideology and it is about the ability to recruit both online and face to face, which they are obviously taking the advantage of in that camp. and it's not just that they've recently infiltrated it. we had indications that they were part of the camp population almost from the very beginning. so they're simply growing that force on the ground. >> it's not hard to understand, if you have lost all hope, you've lost your home and your family and you have no one helping you, you have no one supporting you, you have been left there alone, that you're going to look for hope or at least security somewhere. and we see a vicious cycle that could be playing out once again. barbara, john, thank you so much. up next for us, an alarming video popping up. high school students doing a nazi salute while listening to a

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nazi salute, singing a gnats eat song at an off-campus banquet in southern california. the video was first obtained by the daily booeft aeast and it'se first time high school students in the region have been caught doing the very same. sarah sidner is doing extensive reporting of the rise of hate in america. she joins me now. what are you learning about this? >> watching the video tells you pretty much everything you need to know. what's so disturbing about it, beyond the fact that they're doing a hail, you've got several students there who are student athletes who are from the water polo team in the water garden school district and this was apparently according to the school district put on snapchat. it was put up in 2018 and it's just coming to light now. as you said, it was first highlighted on the daily beast. a lot of people talk about students, especially young students like high school students and younger, need to be

educated about the holocaust and the fact that 6 million jews were exterminated in nazi, germany. what you're seeing is there is some education because they'sin nazi song in german and the music is being played from someone's home. this was an off-campus sports ceremony that was off campus and the school district says it was kind of before the ceremony got under way. but you have these students, one of them singing the words of this song in german. so clearly they have been educated about nazi-ism and have decided that that's perfectly fine and funny. you can hear them laughing. this is a very disturbing thing. for anyone who covers hate or for anyone who looks and is an expert and looks at what's happening with hate in this country, it's especially disturbing to see that they're making fun of this, that they're joking around about this. and that it is normizing this

kind of behavior. that is exactly what knee oh-nazis want. let's listen to what a rabbi in the area has said about this incident. >> it's unfortunately becoming part of our environment, which is why we have to stop it before it escalates. where did they discover that? are they on neo-nazi websites? >> that's always the question. where are they learning this? the school district has sent out a statement saying they strongly condemned this video as soon as they found out about it, which was actually four months after it was posted. it was filmed, like they said, in 2018, before there was any sort of adult in the room at a banquet. the video was then shared on snapchat. now, school administrators say they took immediate action when they found out about it and addressed the situation with all students and families involved. but there is a big concern in the community which is why they're having a community meeting where this will certainly come up tonight. >> one part of the statement

falls completely flat to me when they say it happened before or after school hours. that makes no difference to me when i see something as hateful as that. thank you, sarah. one thing to do is shine on light on it. we'll definitely see what happens from the school meeting. thank you so much. coming up, president trump floating another conspiracy theory about the 2016 election. this time he blames google. a fact check next. comfort on both sides - your sleep number setting. can it help us fall asleep faster? yes, by gently warming your feet. but can it help keep us asleep? absolutely, it intelligently senses your movements and automatically adjusts to keep you both effortlessly comfortable. so you can really promise better sleep. not promise... prove. and now, all beds are on sale! save 50% on the sleep number 360 limited edition smart bed. plus 0% interest for 24 months and free home delivery. ends saturday let's see, aleve is than tylenol extra strength. and last longer with fewer pills.

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it is no secret president trump has no problem pedaling conspiracy theories when especially it comes to the 2016 election. first it was 3 to 5 million illegal votes that lost him the popular vote, then it was state voters flooding new hampshire that lost him the popular vote, none of which is supported by any evidence. even his voter fraud commission that he put together couldn't find, didn't find any widespread conspiracy or widespread voter fraud before it disbanded. now he apparently is saying it's google's fault. the president putting out a statement yesterday saying -- well, you see it, wow, report just out google manipulated from

2.6 million to 16 million votes for hillary clinton in the 2016 election. he also goes on to say google should be sued, my victory was even bigger than thought. where did this come from? not the intelligence community and not even from a new report as he puts it, but rather congressional testimony from last month in the senate, which was largely ignored. but worth noting that fox business did discuss this in a segment yesterday. so where are the facts? if there are any. joining me right now the cnn's daniel dale. this demands fact checking. what have you found? >> the author of the study says that president trump got his findings wrong and a whole bunch of other people say that the study itself is highly flawed. so the author of the study says that he never alleged google manipulated anything. even in search results much less votes. what the author is alleging is that there was bias in google's search results that was sufficient to have potentially affected millions of votes. now, there are a ton of questions about this author's

methodology but that's what he says. >> think we've almost lost count maybe of how many voter fraud theories, conspiracy theories that the president has jumped on since 2016. can you remind folks, has there been any evidence to back any of the claims up? >> no. there hasn't. he's alleged mass voter fraud in california. he's generally alleged that illegal immigrants are dawned disguises, and there's no evidence for that. there's no evidence for his conspiracy theory about thousands of people being bussed from massachusetts to new hampshire to vote illegally which there's no evidence for this one. this is a highly flawed study and even the author of it says the president was describing it incorrectly. >> daniel, did you so much as always. >> thank you. >> we're also following some breaking news overseas. italy's prime minister has just announced he's resigning sparking a new political crisis in the country because the nationalist government that the

country has seen is facing collapse. joining me the chief for the daily beast and cnn contributor. >> well, it's chaos multiplied. we're used to seeing chaos in italian politics, but matteo is a right wing leader, very much a product of steve bannon, very much a fan of donald trump who he attended some political rallies a couple of years ago in the united states. matteo silvini wants full power in in country. a couple of weeks ago, he pulled the plug on this coalition government, trying to push snap elections. the italian prime minister is playing a little bit of hard ball with him saying i'm going the resign, this is going to have to go to the president of the country to try to cobble together new government. but it could all pave the way for matteo sil skr ini to end he being the ruler in this country. it's worrying to a lot of europeans and it should be a

worry i think to a lot of people across the world. >> barbie, thank you so many. coming up, sir elton john coming to the defense of the royal family. why he is warning the media to become off prince harry and meghan markle. but first, this sunday, don't miss the premier of the new cnn film "halston." >> is this fun? >> oh, sure, it's fun and it's not fun and as my mother says, it's the price you have to pay. >> the most successful individual in the history of american fashion. halston. >> halston. >> i am halstn. i made it in new york. >> halston felt that he had to design everything. >> rugs, sheets, perfume, bags, gloves. ♪ >> you wanted to get publicity. the problem was, he began to

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he was one of the princess diana's closest friends, and now he's coming to the defense of her youngest son. prince harry and meghan markle were being attacked as hypocrites in the british press for flying private jets while sounding the alarm on the environmental crisis. sir elton john is having none of it. melissa, what's going on here? >> well, kate, the level of vitriole that the duchess of sussex have seen over the course of the last few months has been quite exceptional. the british tabloid press consider them a fodder, essentially. what we've seen over the course of the last weeks is that the attack that their summer hole lay didn't chime with their fight against climate change. elton john, who is hosting them in the south of france came to the rescue, first on of all, explaining that he was the one who paid for that private jet

flight, but also that he ensured that it was carbon neutral to try to put an end to that controversy. but he then went further with this tweet that spoke specifically about that friendship that he had with prince harry's mother. they were very close. he referred to that obligation that he felt now as a result of that friendship to try and protect meghan and harry from the sort of press intrusion that.in the end, kate, had contributed to principle sis diana's death. >> the do you think this, in the end, this statement -- i mean, this isn't the first time that meghan markle has faced some -- meghan markle and prince hair very some faced some rough headlines and also not the first time that there's been an ask for the press to back off. young this coming from elton john, do you think -- is it having an impact? >> it's been said before. buckingham palace itself, kate, just a few months ago saying the press should stop and reflect about the nature of its coverage and the nature of what it was

printing about meghan markle, the duchess of sussex. now elton john has chimed in. we've heard from other celebrities, as well, pink who tweeted the level of abuse she had seen meghan markle put to was beyond anything she had seen before. i think the fact that a few people are coming to the couple's defense makes a change. a one-sided set of attacks on anything almost meghan markle can do. >> thank you so much. some scary breaking news happened this morning. new details we're getting in right now about a bus hijacking in rio de janeiro, brazil. it happened this morning. it finally ended with a police shooting and killing the suspect. police say an armed man held 37 commuters aboard that bus hostage and threatened to set the bus on fire. it played out. there's virginia e video playing all morning of it. police shot the hijacker when he stepped off the bus and threw

something at them. the standof lasted for about three hours. the hijacker said he was a military policemen. all the hostages were freed, unarmed, but you can see one woman fainted as she was getting off the bus. poor thing. we don't know what the hijacker wanted, of course. >> thank you outline so much for joining me. "inside politics" with john king starts right now. >> thank you, kate. welcome to "inside politics." i'm john king. thank you for sharing your day with us. joe biden is back on the trail today. elect blth electability is biden's theme and jill biden has an interesting twist on that argument. plus, the scramble to make the next democratic debate. julio castro is in and a few other democrats who are close are racing to qualify.