joining brian williams' "rock center." thanks, tom. that's it for this edition of "reliable sources." join us next sunday morning at 11:00 eastern for another critical look at the media. the economy shows a pulse and the president -- >> we can't wait for congress to do its job. so where they won't act, i will. >> -- flexes some muscle. today, a conversation with senior obama campaign strategist david axelrod. then, ron paul on his 2012 bid, the tea party and third parties. and a look at early primary states with a trio of veteran reporters -- florida's adam smith, iowa's kay henderson, south carolina's gina smith. then, the economy through

the prism of halloween. with ellen davis of the national retail federation. >> when the economy is suffering, halloween spending soars. >> i'm candy crowley. and this is "state of the union." an economic trifecta thursday boosted the administration and maybe the president's re-election chances, too. new figures show the economy grew by 2.5% in the third quarter, almost double the growth in the previous quarter. and european leaders struck a deal to settle greek debt and bolster the euro. then world markets surged in response. wall street ending thursday up over 300 points. meanwhile, out on the campaign trail, the president tried to reconnect with voters where they are hurting. he launched a spate of initiatives he can execute without congressional approval -- helping homeowners with underwater mortgages, lowering student loan payments, training for veterans to work in the health care industry, and informational tools for small businesses. joining me now, senior campaign

strategist for the obama re-election campaign, david axelrod. david, thanks for being here. before you get just too giddy about these latest economic -- >> i don't get giddy. i don't get too low but i don't get giddy. that's one of the keys here. >> and the fact of the matter is it is a daunting task when you look at some of these economic stats that are out there. these are hard numbers for the obama campaign. 14 million americans still unemployed. we all know the number is much greater than that. 86% of americans describe the economy as poor. that's a right track/wrong track question which always is a problem for people looking for re-elect. only 38% of americans approve of president obama's handling of the economy. given those, what is your strategy? >> well, first of all, let's talk about what's going on with the american people because their life is more than just what's going on in the political game and the fact is that it's not just about jobs. it's about wages. it's about what's happened to the middle class over a long period of time. >> sure, wages are down.

>> and whether or not -- they've been down over the course of the last decade. and these are trend lines that we have to attack so we need to do things that will recover from the recession and create jobs in the short run, and rebuild the economic security the middle class has lost in the long run. we have ideas -- the president's all over the country talking about what we can do immediately. he's got ideas about how we rebuild the middle class in the long run. and the other side will offer their ideas. theirs seem to be to go back to what we were doing before the crisis. i think we'll have a great debate and the american people will decide where their interests lie and who best represents them. >> some of these initiatives, you've heard a lot of economists i'm sure, saying, look, anything helps, but these are kind of minor. a lot of people brought up the clinton dress code, these tiny initiatives saying really around the margins these may help but these are not big things.

there are much larger sort of political things -- >> let me just say, there's no panacea. but if you're one of the millions of homeowners who can't refinance their homes because their home values have dropped, even though they've made their payments every month, it's not a small thing. it is a big thing. >> no, of course -- >> it is easy to sit in washington and make those judgments but if you're out there in this economy these things do make a difference. >> sure. but looking at the economy as a whole, this is a small dent. i understand in people's lives -- >> well, there are larger things we can do. obviously the american jobs act, all economists agree with having market effect on economic growth and would create millions of jobs. we just have to get the congress to act on it. their strategy seems to be obstruction and delay and people can't afford that. that's why the president is embarking on this -- he will take every action he can take under the law on his own to improve the economy, to give a little more security to the middle class. but it would be great to get some cooperation. >> one year ago, two years ago, now almost three years into the

obama administration, things have been lousy for a lot of people. so in his "we can't wait" campaign, isn't the question, okay, fine, if these are great initiatives for people, why did he wait almost three years? >> he's embarked on a lot of initiatives. this -- look. the problems we got into, candy, were years in the making. they are deep, complicated and they'll require sustained perseverance and lots of ideas. there's no silver bullet for them so you have to keep chipping away at this problem and that is what he's doing. what we shouldn't do is go back to doing what we have heard from these republican candidates from the congress, let's just deregulate wall street, let them go back to writing their own rules, let's cut taxes for the -- cut taxes at the very top. it is the same strategy that has failed this country and they want to go back to it. so there is a very big difference between what the president is trying to do and what the republicans are offering. >> let me ask you about a story that appeared recently, i

believe in the "new york times," about lobbyists. you have raising money for the president -- and people called bundlers. which is they give what they can, the max allowed -- all of this is perfectly legal, let me say that. but you have people who really are, by any stretch of the imagination, lobbying congress, lobbying the white house. they are lobbyists and they are bundlers. that is they ask other people to give money and "the new york times" pointed out a number of individuals who didn't ask for this so let's not go through the individuals. but just in general, are you guilty of going by the letter of the president's promise and not the spirit? >> it's interesting that you talk about the president's promise -- >> his promise, by the way -- >> everyone should understand the reason why "the new york times" can write that story is because the president is disclosing everyone who raises money for him. none of the republican candidates are willing to do that.

the president has imposed on himself a ban on taking contributions from federal lobbyists. he has imposed on himself a ban on taking money from political action committees. but more importantly as president, he has ended the revolving door between industry and the government so he doesn't hire lobbyists to come in -- >> would concede that you have people that have bund lers. by the definition of the word lobbyists are in fact federal lobbyists? >> i would have to run through the list of people that were there. this administration has been more transparent than any administration >> let me read you something that the new white house chief of staff, not so new anymore, william daly has been around there for a while. when he was talking on friday, he said on the domestic side, both democrats and republicans have really made it very difficult for the president to

be anything like a chief executive. this has led to a kind of frustration. >> it certainly sounds as though, we would like to chief executive, but the republicans and democrats have stopped him from doing that. does the president bear any responsibility for the current state of economy and for the current what's perceived lack of action on capitol hill. >> first of all, when he got to, we were in a free fall when he got to office, in the last quarter of the last administration was the worst since 1930. minus nine, our economy was shrinking. losing 150,000 jobs the month he took over. he took steps -- he took decisive steps that were as unpopular as they were necessary. that's why we have an american auto industry now. that's why the economy's been

growing, albeit at a too slow a pace, we got a lot of work to do. we need to take more steps to get back with the middle class has lost which is their economic security. that's longterm project. it took years to get into this problem. >> should it be surprising that, a president has a hard time with congress, we're so frustrated here -- >> this is something different going on right now. when you have the leader the republican leader of the senate say, our number one goal in the midst of this economy, our number one goal is to defeat the president and they're acting like it, they don't want to cooperate, they don't want to help, even on measures to help the economy, that they traditionally supported before, like infrastructure and surface transportation. you have to ask the question, are they willing to tear down the economy in order to tear down the president? are they going to cooperate? there's a reason why the

congress is at 9% in some polls. approval lowest in history. >> but again, he's blaming democrats in here. i got to ask you a final question, you're begin to take friendly fire as well from democrats, the latest was den cardozo who retired from california, the housing policy has been rotten, et cetera, et cetera. we're now seeing stories that it's sort of every man for himself story that tends to come maybe a little later in the election cycle, what is your advice to democrats and conservative places in terms of how they embrace president obama? >> you said at the front end, don't be too giddy. i said, i never get too giddy and i never get too low, we have been through ups and downs. where the same people who were very down beat before the same folks who said i'm not sure about this, were writing us off,

they came back when we came back, i believe we're going to win this campaign and we're going to win this campaign on the fundamental issue, who's going stand up for an economy which the middle class can grow and not shrink? people where hard work is rewarded and responsibility is rewarded. we made our economy strong. we're on the right side of this fight. this president is working every day in that regard. i think all democrats will be able to line up behind him. by the way, if you hook at polls, his spot among democrats is higher than previous democratic presidents at this point. it's very robust. i'm not worried about democrats supporting the president. i think democrats will support the president. independents will as well. >> david axelrod, chief strategist for the re-elect campaign. >> thanks, candy. after the break -- ron paul, on his plan to restore the economy. [ male announcer ] humana and walmart have teamed up

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ever joining me from his hom state of texas, republican

presidential candidate congressman ron paul. thank you so much, congressman, for being here. i want to talk a little bit about your economic plan in which you call for basically closing up the departments of energy, education, housing and urban development, commerce and interior. and you're proposing about $1 trillion in budget cuts. now i want to show something to our audience that gives you an idea of americans who are receiving government benefits. 48.5% of americans live in households where someone receives a federal benefit. 34% of americans live in households that receives means-tested benefits -- things like medicaid, aid to dependent children, that kind of thing. do you in a paul administration foresee that those numbers would come down?

>> well, they have to come down because the numbers you quote are obviously unsustainable and if we don't do anything, none of that's going to work because it is all going to be eaten up with inflation. so it isn't the choice of looking toward my program or having the status quo of 48% of the people still getting checks. because it won't last. we're not producing. we don't have jobs. we're in debt. we're on the verge of another downgrade of our credit. so we face dire consequences. so if we want to save some of these programs, which i make an attempt to do, save social security and medical care for the indigent, and some of even the educational programs, we have to do something. and we got into this mess by spending and borrowing and printing money so we can't get out of it that way. so we have to cut spending. this is something nobody else wants to talk about, none of the other candidates are talking about cutting next year's budget.

everybody's talking in washington and the other candidates talk about cutting the baseline increases five and ten years out. and this is why there is no reassurance gone to the economy. nobody believes it is going to do any good. so i obviously believe very sincerely that you can't get out after debt problem by accumulating more debt. it just doesn't work. >> one of the things you have proposed -- and there have been some controversy about -- is to begin to phase out, as you explain it, federal student loans to folks who want to go to college, federally backed student loans, that you want to phase out over time. at some point then you would have people who really don't qualify for private loans, who couldn't walk into a bank and say my son needs to go to college and i need a loan. they simply won't qualify. are there just some people who won't be able to go to college that want to in a paul administration? >> no, i don't think so.

anybody who's ambitious enough will get to go to college. the problem is college costs too much and with the good intentions of giving people houses at discount, it ends up with a housing bubble and the people who are supposed to be helped lose their house, same thing with the education. the attempt to help people in education, all you do is you don't get better education, you end up actually pushing the price of education up. so we've delivered now hundreds of thousands of students graduating with a trillion dollars worth of debt? and no jobs? so it is a totally failed policy. only a generation ago we didn't have government programs and people worked their way through college and i was able to get through medical school and college. but it wasn't so expensive. so it's the inflation, the problems with the government. as soon as the government gets involved for good intentions, there's always unintended consequences and almost inevitably it backfires. besides, let's say it did sort

of work -- and it does work for some people. some people get into education at the expense of others. but why should people who are laborers who never get to go to college, why should they be taxed to send some of us through college? so it is not even a fair system when it works. but obviously it doesn't work and that's why it is coming to an end and now they have to talk about, well, we're going to have to bail out everybody, bail out housing and now bail out the student loans. but that's not the answer. the answer is looking toward the cause and the cause is spending, debt, printing money, inflation, too much government, loss of confidence in the free market, loss of confidence in liberty is what it is. and where is the responsibility? the responsibility is on the individual and family to take care of their needs, not federal bureaucracy. it just doesn't work. >> but would you admit that there are people who need federal help, be it an education or be it in housing, or food stamps, i mean that kind of thing.

>> yeah, there's always some needs. the market isn't perfect. but instead of having a trillion dollars worth of debt in a medical care system that's totally broke down, you would always have some needs. but that was in existence before 1965 but there was nobody out in the streets without medical care, nobody out in the streets that -- there were more people under bridges now than there were back then. and also, there were loans. people do loan. but even if they have difficulty, you know, sometimes it takes people six years to go through college and sometimes it takes people four years. but back then, there were jobs available. the whole thing was the cost was so much lower. so, yes, it will not be perfect but what we have now is this catastrophic mistake where people have a pseudo education and no jobs and all debt. i mean we've indentured them for a long, long time to come. so we have to challenge the

status quo on how we run our economy and run this country. >> okay, let me turn you to politics here. you've raised a bit of a stir because you have refused to flatly rule out a third party bid. now i know the minute you say i might do a third party bid, that kind of dooms a republican bid. but nonetheless, if there were a third party bid, let's just say as a hypothetical, wouldn't you see a third party bid from the republican side of the equation as something that would doom republican chances? >> well, i don't think it would doom it. it would cause a little bit of a problem. >> cause a lot of a problem. >> remember, reagan did quite well. yeah, but ronald reagan did well with anderson in it and he still did well. >> george h.w. bush didn't do so

well with perot. >> that's true, that's another example. but anyway, i have no intention of doing it. nobody's particularly asked me to do it and they know what i'm doing and i have no plans whatsoever to do it. >> let me ask you about something that a man named matt robbins, who's the executive director of the american majority, which is a tea party faction, which has some sway -- it is not a small group. it is a fairly good size group who said this of michele let's face it, she's back-bencher and has been a back-bencher congress person for years. this is not a serious presidential campaign. do you agree with that? >> well, i think she's very serious. i think she did quite well. we were essentially tied for the ames straw vote. so no, to say she's not serious or for somebody to all of a sudden make a declaration on tv or make some challenges that's repeated on tv means that a person's campaign is wiped out. i don't think that's fair. >> and finally, george will,

a well-known conservative columnist, wrote this about mitt romney -- "romney supposedly the republican most electable next november, is a recidivst reviser of his principles who is not only becoming less electable, he might damage gop chances of capturing the senate. republicans may have found their michael dukakis." what's your reaction to that? >> well, time will tell. there's obviously times when myth has changed his position. you know? he's had to answer to it. but he's pretty smooth in answering this, but, no, i've seen ads and comments where he's changed his position on a lot of things. >> does that make him unelectable? >> what i would suggest is -- no, i don't think so, not in this age. it gives him a challenge but they have challenged all the candidates. they haven't challenged me for flip-flopping so i'm very proud of that. >> all right, thank you so much congressman ron paul for joining us this sunday. i appreciate it. coming up -- national polls are important, but you can learn a lot more from primary polling

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with just over two months before the first votes of of the primary season, former massachusetts governor mitt romney is well positioned, but not yet comfortably positioned, to be the next republican nominee. in new hampshire, a poll shows romney blows out the competition with 40% of the vote. in florida, 30% of republican voters give romney the nod, considerably more than cain's 18%. in iowa and south carolina, romney's edge is a bit smaller but notable because he is doing well in two states with a conservative tea party-esque republican electorate. in both states romney is basically tied for the top spot with businessman herman cain. but before you go declaring game over, note that only about one-third of those polls say they've made up their minds. up next, three veteran reporters from early voting states. [ male announcer ] for fastidious librarian emily skinner,

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see what a raymond james advisor can do for you. joining me now to talk primary politics, adam smith, political editor of the st. petersburg "times" in florida, kay henderson news director of radio iowa, and gina smith, lead political reporter of "the state" newspaper in south carolina. i am excited to have all of you on. let me just start with actually the primary i think that's the furthest away and that's in florida. adam, it is one thing to look at these polls, it is another thing to be on the ground and feel it. so tell me what you're picking up there insofar as the republican field is concerned.

>> you know i think romney has been campaigning in florida for basically six years but i think this is still a wide-open race. florida will be the first closed primary where only republicans can vote and i think rick perry's still in it. i think there is a lot of enthusiasm for herman cain. so a lot can happen in florida. >> and a lot can happen between now and the end of january, that's for sure. gina, let me ask you about "the state" which you all are always so interesting down there because of course there's no party affiliation so it is a little hard to kind of figure it out. but what do you think accounts for the fact that romney does seem to be doing pretty well in a state where everyone thought, oh, these evangelical christians won't like a mormon, and yet he pretty much is tied for the lead with cain. >> you're so right, candy. back in 2008, he finished a disappointing fourth, but this time around in every poll that you see he's pretty much at the top or in second place every time.

the most recent polling numbers he's behind herman cain but still within the margin of error and there has been a lot of question in a state where you have so many evangelical christians whether or not the fact that he's a mormon will be a problem. but it seems that this is not the republican party of your grandfather in south carolina anymore. >> so something has changed since -- in the last four years or maybe eight years so far as that's concerned, you think. >> absolutely. i think things are changing in south carolina. take, for example, our governor, nikki haley. she's the daughter of immigrant parents. she was raised and converted to christianity. that becomes less and less of an issue in south carolina which surprises a lot of people. surprises a lot of people. >> and kate, in iowa -- i love

iowa. because basically we give poll numbers and it shows romney in the lead and you think, well, that's great, compel for polls mean absolutely nothing when it comes to a caucus. so to you, the question i think is the same as to adam -- what is the feel you're getting in terms of the campaign best suited to turn out on caucus night enough folks to stick with them? >> well, "the des moines register" issued its iowa poll this morning and i think it highlights what romney is doing here. he has held on to the people who supported him last time around pretty credibly through this campaign and what you see in herman cain, who has a 23% compared to 22% for romney in today's iowa poll, is that herman cain has that likability factor. he has the tea party factor. and those are weaknesses in the romney campaign. so i think what you see here is that the other candidates -- and there are plenty of them -- sort of highlight the weaknesses in the romney candidacy. >> i want to show our viewers that new "des moines register"

poll because it is new today showing cain and romney at the top. obviously organization is just almost everything in the state of iowa when it comes to caucuses but what do you make of the fact that the top two people in iowa right now, according to this "register" poll and our earlier poll are folks that haven't really spent any time in iowa? doesn't that run counter to everything we've heard about these early states, that you've got to be there early and often and none of these guys really are? >> i would point back to the october 2007 iowa poll which showed mike huckabee at back of the pack with 12% in october before his finish. it also showed that fred thompson who was a relatively recent entrant into the race was in the number two position, and rudy giuliani was essentially tied for third. so i think still at this point, the race is very fluid and that's being reflected in this poll today. >> adam, let me go back to you.

i think since the very beginning of this race we have talked about mitt romney, the weak front-runner and i think we are still today talking about mitt romney, the weak front-runner. what changes that in florida for him? how does he seal this deal? what's the republican electorate looking for? >> well, i think it's not that much dissimilar from what we are seeing in other states. they're looking for someone they're comfortable is going to beat barack obama. electability really does matter. it may matter just as much as trusting the core principles of a candidate. so he's got that going for him, and he also has -- he's been here a lot, mitt romney. he has camped out in northeast florida where there's a lot of republican votes. he's got a lot of people that know him and trust him and the rest of the field is sort of dividing up that anti-romney vote. >> adam, gina, kay, i want you all three to stick with me. ♪ bum-bum, bum-bum, bum-bum ♪

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we're back with adam smith, kay henderson and gina smith. no relation, we should add, and states apart. kay, let me start with you about the dynamic of the democrat versus republican in the state of iowa. we tend to think of it as a

swing state but it is not really. it tends to presidentially vote democratic. can the president count on this one or do you see trouble ahead? >> i think obama will face what he faces in every state in the country -- questions about the economy, questions about the state of affairs worldwide. and i think the obama campaign knows that. they have offices -- not just an office, but they have spread out across the state with campaign offices already in iowa. the democratic party is already trying to make the argument that a mitt romney versus obama match-up here in iowa would be problematic for romney because he hasn't spent much time here. he's only been physically in iowa three times in this calendar year. >> and so when you look at the dynamic right now, i know that iowa also has sort of a large pacifist streak to it. i used to live in iowa and there is very much an anti-war vote. do you think the president

has -- >> which ron paul is really capitalizing on. >> exactly. and do you think the president can capitalize on the withdrawal of our troops in iraq, the withdrawal -- or beginning of the withdrawal of our troops from afghanistan? is that something they're starting to sell? >> i think they will be able to sell that and i think republican candidates show right now that they know that. you have michele bachmann out making the point about foreign policy and pointing to the lack of credentials on the part of herman cain, because i think they all understand that when it comes down to a voting decision, that voters do want some degree of competence in the person who will be their commander in chief. >> gina, you know, there haven't been many presidential elections that have been surprising out of south carolina. it is not exactly ronald reagan territory, so let me ask you this. for those who are down ballot, for democrats who do get elected

statewide in south carolina, do you think the president is a drag on that ticket? >> well, you're right, candy. we're so solidly red in south carolina. last time that a democrat won this state in a presidential race was in 1976. so i don't think that obama has much of a chance in south carolina at all. just talking this morning about the most recent poll numbers we've seen on obama where, in south carolina, you have 40% of republicans who don't think he was born in the country and another 30% who think he's a muslim. so, yeah, democrats have a hard time in south carolina at the state level and at the national level, too. >> a hard sell in south carolina, that's for sure. >> yes. >> adam, but, boy, do we love florida. it is always exciting during an election year, what are you picking up there in terms of the trends, democratic or republican?

>> well, there's a myth that obama won florida last time with this great turnout from democratic voters and really turning out the base. he won florida because of the independent vote where he beat mccain significantly. he showered the state in ads talking about middle class tax cuts. so he's got a lot of work to do. it is very early. they're starting way earlier than they did last time but he's got a lot of work to regain those independent voters in florida. >> so he's having the same problem, and is it economic based? i guess that's almost a redundant question because it is almost always economic based, fatigue, when it comes to voters these days. >> it's absolutely economic based. i mean we've got a 9%-plus unemployment. we've got almost half of the houses here are underwater on their mortgages so you can't overstate the amount of anxiety there is about the economy here. >> as pollsters like to say, everything is just a snapshot of today, but if you had to give me a snapshot of where florida is trending, republican or

democrat, what would that snapshot show? >> boy, i'd be scared to do it. but he won after mounting the biggest grassroots campaign in all history and he won in a year when indiana and north carolina went republican. so at this point i think the -- he's got a lot of work to do. >> let me ask you, adam, just a totally different subject and it is florida centric. senator marco rubio recently revealed that parts of his biography -- to say they were untrue is a bit much, but he had some timing off that made it look as though his family fled fidel castro's cuba when in fact they fled before that. is that having any resonance down in florida or does he remain a pretty popular guy? >> he remains a pretty popular guy. you can talk to people down in miami who are really quietly discussing this. there is a significant difference between leaving during batista and leaving during castro. there is some buzz about his

parents going back post-castro and some questions about that. i think the more significant thing it did was to the kind of national media that's viewed rubio as sort of a flawless rock star, we have known him a little better in florida that this kind of puts a chink in that and raises some questions about how thoroughly has this potential vice president been vetted. >> listen, thank you all so much, adam smith, the "st. petersburg times," gina smith, "the state" radio in south carolina, kay henderson, radio iowa. thank you, thank you, thank you. up next, highlights from the other sunday talk shows. and all right, is hall how wean recession proof. we asked an expert. [ male announcer ] humana and walmart have teamed up

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before getting to this week's sound of sunday. we want to get the latest on that snowstorm that walloped the northeast this weekend. cnn's chad myers is in york, pennsylvania. i can see the trafffic is moving but i understand the electricity

night not necessarily be working? >> reporter: yeah, the streets are clear, the sidewalks are clear. but this snow was very heavy. let me tell you the road crews are out now and so are the power line cruse as 2 million people still need power. look at this -- these power line crews were up and down these streets were trees were falling on the crews. it's going to be very long night for some people, a long couple of days before others get their power power. some saying not until wednesday. at the hotel last night it was full of families that didn't want to spend the night in the dark and the cold. probably one more night for people like, crews can't get to all of the power lines. mutual aid is on the way. that's going to take many more hours, candy. >> well, it looks like it's

shaping up for a chilly halloween. thanks so much, chad, we appreciate it. now to this week's sound of sunday. two republicans said recent setbacks don't deter them. rick perry and michele bachmann are confident their campaigns will reignite. >> you pace yourself, it's not a sprint, it's a marathon. we got in late and we walked awfully hard for those first eight-plus weeks to go raise the money and we had 17-day fund-raising push. it's also good to come off the battlefield for a few days i'm doing exactly what i need to do in iowa. i'm here all across the state, meeting with people multiple times every day.

it's amazing what a difference several weeks can make in the course of a presidential campaign. these are snapshots in time. >> for more than a week now, herman cain has been trying to clarify his position on abortion, one of the most fundamental questions in any republican primary. today, once more with feeling. >> i'm pro-life. from conception, period. and if people look at many speeches that i have been giving over the years, that will still be my opinion. >> talk about those exceptions. >> pro-life from conception, period, it was that piece, that piece that was pulled out, was taken totally out of context. >> so, in other words, you wouldn't believe in abortion if rape or the health of the mother. >> correct. that's my position. and in what has fast became a campaign stap from the re-elect campaign, david plouffe

has blunt words about republican presidential front-runner mitt romney for changing position and he has no core. every day we seem to find another issue. he was supportive of doing a cap and trade agreement, now he doesn't think that climate change is real. he was to the left of ted kennedy on gay rights marriage. you get the sense with mitt romney, if it was good to say the sky was blue and the grass was green he would say it. coming up, the economics of halloween. we installed a ge flet monitoring system. it tracks every vehicle in their fleet. it cuts fuel use. koch: it enhances customer service. it's pretty amazing when people who loan you money also show you how to save it. not just money, knowledge. it's so much information, it's like i'm right there in every van in the entire fleet. good day overall. yeah, i'm good. come on in. let's go. wow, this is fantastic. ge capital. they're not just bankers.

we're builders. they helped build our business.

i'm tempted to begin this segment with a boo, but instead i'll just tell you that according to our next guest, a record 161 million americans plan on celebrating halloween tomorrow. ellen davis is vice president and spokesperson for the national retail federation, an organization that for the last nine years has released an extensive survey on halloween spending trends. $6.8 billion being spent on halloween decorations, halloween costumes. what does that -- look at the economy through the prism of halloween. what do we know about the economy based on halloween sales?

>> what's interesting is that in the last four or five years, when the economy is suffering, halloween spending soars. people love in an economy like this one to just get out, let loose, have a little bit of fun. for example, in 2008, when everything was in the tank, halloween spending rose. this year, halloween spending is up again, and part of that is because people are just looking for an opportunity to have a little bit of fun. >> so it's a recession-proof holiday. it's almost the opposite of christmas. >> almost. halloween is a no-strings- attached holiday which is why people like it. you don't need to buy gifts, get together with family, you don't need to spend a lot of money if you don't want to, but you can still participate and celebrate. that is what halloween has transcended from. a holiday set aside for kids to one that's become a month-long celebration for just about everybody. >> there's no way to look at halloween retail sales and say anything useful about christmas which is, as we know, so important in the retail economy,

in general? >> there are some trends that we can take from halloween looking ahead to the holiday season, but for the most part halloween is isolated. not only is it isolated in terms of trends because it almost is recession-proof, but it's isolated in the types of merchandise. halloween is really about costumes, candy, and decorations, and christmas as we know is so much more than that. >> it's about everything. >> it's about everything, yeah. >> so when you look at the thing that people are buying, what are they spending the most money on at this point? >> this year people are spending about $20 on costumes and candy. they're also spending about $15 or $16 on decorations. >> so it's per family or per person? >> that's per family. many people are really trying to be careful with their spending. they might be making their own costumes or using last year's costume. people like the idea of spending a little bit on halloween. we also have those residual expenses like trips to a pumpkin patch or amusement park or corn

maze that comes along with the halloween season, as well. >> so your figures are also showing us that only about 1% of adults surveyed said that they would use -- they were going to wear a political costume. is that high, is that low? how does that compare to previous years? >> what's interesting is that halloween costumes generally follow pop culture. zombies, for example, are big this year because of the tv shows and video games. a lot of the political commentary tends to make people a little bit jaded when it comes to halloween. when the health care bill was passed and debated, the number of people dressing up as nurses and doctors fell off the top ten list. this year because some people are just not really happy with what's going on in washington, the number of people who want to deal with conversations about what politician they dressed up for halloween might be down this year, as well. >> people just don't want to talk about politics. this is interesting, the people

at sortprice.com, they look at the most searched costumes, looking at political costumes, sarah palin was number one, which i find fascinating. i imagine she has been up there in previous years. and beats our president obama. we did bring a mask out there, whether you think this looks like him or not, he's number two. then it falls off to lincoln which i find really -- sort of interesting. >> i think a lot of people dress as politicians for halloween because it's a conversation starter. regardless of which side of the aisle you're on, you know, dressing up as sarah palin or barack obama is certainly one way to get people talking -- one way to get people talking at a halloween party. that's what a lot of costumes are designed to do. >> thank you very much for stopping by. we appreciate it. happy halloween. excuse executive producer tom battaglia's last day here. he has got answers to fundamental awe