they need some other stories to sell, that are real, we'll see if they happen to build. >> live blogging it? >> i think so. i'm excited about the shakeup in the market away from intel to arm. it hasn't played out yet except for apple but it's coming. >> we're going to be watching for sure, thanks, and that's going to do it for us here at overtime," "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square on a night when the dow closed above 40k for the first time, this is fast money. here's what's on tap tonight, big tech on deck, microsoft getting ready to launch its copilot powered pcs, while nvidia preps for earnings, what these two events mean for the red hot trade. propping up the property market, china announcing new measures to help the struggling real estate industry get back on solid foundation. will they succeed? >> and later, heavy metal moves from gold to silver, to uranium.

what's driving the hard commodity gains, transports get still staled. robinhood rips higher, three-year highs. i'm melissa lee. on the desk, tim seymour, steve grasso, guy adami, and rebecca patterson. we start off with big tech events, microsoft build developers conference and nvidia earnings, microsoft society to give updates on its marquee a.i. assistant co pilot, the company expected to show out of a new line of pcs before build officially kicks off. first to nvidia's report, expected to say eps more than quintupled a year ago given by demand for a.i. products, shares up nearly 40% since it last posted results in more than 85% already this year, but are those gains at risk if it disappoints on wednesday, could the markets gains be at risk as well, guy. >> the only disappointment we're

coming in the form of guidance, pretty obviously, or margins, if margins start to decline sequentially then you'll have a problem. the market will say, okay, peak margins last quarter, 70%, this is the other side of it, now in terms of revenue and their eps. eps, which is fantastic. but not commensurate to back up price to sales and price to earnings, then the stock might be this trouble. short of that, i think it's fine. with that said, i'll go back to it again, despite the fact that the stock's had a great run last week and a half, two weeks, that march 8 9 reversal day has not been violated yet. >> yeah, i think it's too early to say it's call it quits if they miss one but their guidance has to be in place. if you look at the gains, it's nvidia, google, amazon, meta, microsoft. but we have energy. and, we have a bunch of other things that contributed to this rally. so it's not just the mag seven, or the fabulous five, there's a couple of different other sectors that have contributed,

but definitely the cheer leader is nvidia. >> yeah, i think when we think about nvidia, don't just focus on the stock, think about the concentric circles around that stock and we're seeing them everywhere from constellation energy to xterra, the utilities but you're seeing all the players in the ecosystem that will support the a.i. tech wave and the number in my head, 200 billion, that's how much, call it mama, microsoft, alphabet, meta, and amazon. 200 billion just this year in capex. and so that's going to happen each year for the next several years. >> mama, that's nice. >> on a friday. >> hoa, whoa, whoa. what was that? that little -- that was like stocker channing in grease. >> don't do it. >> my point is, that whatever nvidia does wednesday, there's

such a tsunami of cash coming into this sector and that ecosystem. if you get those dips you have the structural trend you want to invest in. >> i think nvidia is clearly important to the semitrade, which has picked up the market this week. we had some confluence of lower inflation dynamics playing into, we're getting other forms of capex updates, and parts, i think, that gave you more insight into the broader picture, some of the peers, but i don't know that the market needs nvidia here. i don't think what we've seen over the last month is that the more important dynamic this week was the fed. i look at the broad, dow 40,000, doesn't have a whole lot of tech in there. the dynamic we've seen around the miners and the banks and this week to me was a week that was not really about tech. it was a week where we digested a world war, we know inflation is higher for longer, the fed has even said that, but the fed is out there two or three times this week saying we're not going anytime soon. i think that's really a more important dynamic, we have

retail saleless okay, jobless claims were concerning, two in a row but i think nvidia, while the leadership of the market, i still want to see semis hold serve here, i don't see a major breakdown, if you don't get a major breakdown, you've had s&p outperformance without the nasdaq, since really the summer. >> right, and we have walmart at all-time highs, goldman sachs trading highest levels since its ipo. maybe we don't need nvidia. especially as, to rebecca's point, all these other companies have said we're going to spend money on capex. that a.i. trade is there supported by that outlay. >> that's fair, and we have pr precedent for it, because apple on its horse now, few months prior with the market at all-time highs, the market was doing it without apple, not only without apple but apple trading lower. you're probably right in terms of not needing it in terms of inflation, i hear what everybody is saying, most important banker in the world, speaking this

week, talked about, his concern about inflation. >> always negative, though. >> i guess, but maybe she's justified to be. you know, the market says one thing, i think the things that he says something else. and quickly,we talk about precious metals, base metals on fire. and base metals are as good as an indicator with what's going on with the inflation front, zinc, nickel, aluminum, lead, all multi-year highs. >> company buybacks, through earnings, goldman sachs is written on it, bofa is written on it, a demand for 4.5 billion on a daily basis ripping through the markets until the middle of june. i think the markets are still sensitive. we can go lower but middle of june is going to be the test for me. i would like to see a test of the 2 4urkz day but it's not happening until middle of june. >> we came into this week thinking, cpi was going to be the tape bomb and we got past it and now we think nvidia is the tape bomb, maybe we're just overly concerned at this point, we're almost through earnings,

we've heard a lot already, rebecca, we've gotten some good inflation data this week, so why not just sort of be comfortable? >> yeah, i wish we could be, i guess we're ul all getting paid to think about what could go wrong, we have to worry about our downside. maybe that's part of the conversation. what could go wrong next week? nvidia. what could go wrong this week, inflation. when you see russia and china getting more and more cozy, that makes me nervous. when you see the fed suggesting it may need to be higher for longer, of course that has ripple effects. so there's -- the k-shaped recovery with the lower-end consumer struggling, and we'll probably get to that later with walmart. there is still plenty to be worried about, but as long as you have an overall consumer, that is doing well, and the high end is getting helped by housing prices and by everything rallying, as we've talked about, as long as they keep spending, we have the earnings power, and as long as rates don't go higher from here, probably the worst of

that news is priced? . so we keep going. >> yeah, the highest end consumer is more than half of spending overall. and they're doing okay. so maybe we shouldn't be so worried. >> i think we're all right to understand that the soft landing fantasy is, i think, a fantasy, just a question of when, but the consumer is not breaking down now, and yes we know walmart has a slightly more affluent consumer, we've also seen, though, whether it's cosmetics and beauty, heard it from lvmh and lululemon and nike, and starbucks, some of these companies have company-specific issues in terms of competitive landscape, in terms of just where they were trading, in terms of growth rates in lulu's case, it's hard to replicate over and over again. the consumer is not falgling apart. we get a backdrop to the market, if we go sideways on the data, we're going slightly lower on rates and probably higher on the stock market. i don't feel comfortable as an

a -- this week, everything went up, stocks, bonds, crypto, it was kcurrencies and gold. it's concerning. it does feel like there's risk aggression when we spent half this week talking about meme stocks, that bothers me. when i think about the money that's still in money market funds, i think of essentially there still is a lot of fear, plenty of people under weight, tons of benchmarks this year based upon the fear of seeing what the market did going into this year and look what it's done now, the risk trade is to the higher. >> tim said thatearlier this week. he said before the cpi came out the risk trade was higher and that was spot on, it's probably still intact, i'm still struggling, what's the one thing that sort of breaks it? listen, yields traded a lot lower than i thought, but yield traded down and held a critical support level. tlt traded up to resistance level. i think that yields are going significantly higher and we'll see what happens. if you look around, i mean, japan is still a mess, very

quietly, the yen is back on its horse and rebecca was just talking about what's going on in china. >> what is the options market expecting for the earnings report, bringing in the "options action" crew. carter worth and mike khouw. what do the charts show, carter. >> get right to it. first look at what the stock has done the past five quarters. we have a table. and michael will speak to this later but the implied move is actually sort of muted about 7 to 8%. but that hasn't happened once in the past five quarters. here on the screen you can see it's been a big up, big down, or unch and yet this time it's implied something sort of muted. to the charts, three identical charts, and we can draw the lines several different ways. the first thing to note, of course, this was basically a range-bound stock between 400 and 500 for about eight months and then essentially doubled, went from 450 to 950. let's look at that

consolidation, and draw some lines here. so, again, this is the question, this kind of formation, more often than not is resolved to the upside. what's important is a fairly muted up. not one of the big ones, my guess. final chart, i think you can anticipate we stay sort of in this range, and well, one can say that's still good eating from here. i don't think the prospective upside move outweighs the risk of what might be something eunhappy. >> carter, before we go to mike, the range is what? you had three parallel lines, is it the lower range you're talking about? >> well, meaning -- in fact, i didn't characterize the table quite accurately. there were no big -- for the either two quarters and then big up. we've that had not one down in quite some time. that's the risk, and if indeed we're going to have a down it's bigger than the prospects of the potential up moves. so that -- essentially, some

rise as follows, the up move is what's likely but it's going to be muted but it doesn't outweigh the risk of what could be your first down move in quite some time. >> quacarter, thanks. mike, how are you trading? >> the implied move for just the day of earnings is a little over 8%. all of next week the options market is implying that nvidia would move to just over 9%. playing this range bound thesis and a muted potential upmove is the one you were hoping is going to be the most profitable. one of the things you could do is sell elevated premium by selling next week's 840, 1020 strangle, so telling the downside put and the upside call. of course, selling those options naked like that carries unlimited risk. hedge that by buying a longer dated strangle ofthose exact same strikes, i was looking up to september which captures next week's earnings but the one subsequent to it, you could

capture the decay in the near dated stuff while having longer dated options to protect you. the peak profits would be if you get that move to the upside. >> all right, thank you very much, mike khouw, some old school oa action. >> strangles. boy. >> it's a real throwback. the bottom line in terms of the prediction on the move, according to carter, is slightly higher/muted with a downside risk, guy. >> downside risk, and, again, i don't disagree with that, the downside risk i think will come in the form of margins and i think that's what the market is going to focus on. if they see a margin decline the market will key off of that. the microsoft build and developers conference, technology correspondent steve kovach will be in seattle for it. what are we expecting, steve? >> we had two a.i. reveals down and two more to go this week, of course, got the latest from openai and dwogoogle and monday it's microsoft's turn with that build developers' conference,

we're expecting new a.i. pcs with qualcomm's first ever pc chip and the software side like new a.i. features in windows and then of course there's copilot, that's microsoft's marquee a.i. assistant, microsoft has been making a big push to sell it to businesses this year, but investors have little clarity on how well it's selling despite all that hype from microsoft. i spent some time catching up with ctos and other execs who decided to buy tools like co pilot to see how it's being received. the answers were picked. no one we spoke to is ready to deploy copilot widely, just testing with a couple hundred employees at a time. they say it's too expensive while they can't quantify the benefit. but not all bad. almost everyone i spoke with said they love copilot, how it summarizes video meetings in the teams app or organizes email. microsoft has given some nuggets on copilot sales, most notably i.t. company cognizant bought 20,000 copilot seats for employees but not much for

investors to go on. perhaps more hints at the event next week. >> we've had a couple of a.i. events this week already, steve. how is that going to sort of either raise the stakes for microsoft, and maybe put the pressure on it next week? >> yeah, so microsoft is perceived as the leader and what we heard from google, a lot of that was experimental. there is that search product that is going to launch for u.s. users next week, the a.i. search, but other than that, everything is either in testing mode, or will be launched in sort of a beta version, so we're going to see microsoft try to take the lead it already has, products it's already selling, enhance them, and, you know, expand upon that, it all starts with the hardware event we're expecting on monday. >> steve, thanks, steve kovach, safe travels to seattle. what does this mean for microsoft in your view? >> i think it might mean more for qualcomm and amd, what the chips that they're using versus the actual company, microsoft, i like the chart but at amd it's

lagged, so there could be a pop for amd when you hear the news of what they're using that chip for. >> i think what steve hit on is sort of the million dollar question, that is, what is this worth to companies if you're paying $30 a pop, per user, what are they getting out of it? i think that's a big question in terms of all of this a.i. spend. >> right, how quickly does it and widely does it get adopted and then how -- to the point made earlier, can you quantify the impact? right now we feel it but we can't quantify it. >> right, yeah. >> i think microsoft is a fascinating company right now, not only because it's a fascinating company but because they have a lot of different levers. security is now a real growth driver for this company. they talked about call of duty being part of a subscription service. microsoft's multiple has been one of the harder ones to defend at a time when we've been multiple expansion and of course they were first right in here in the a.i. trade, and it seemed to be at google's expense, and google is at all-time highs and microsoft has been struggling a bit.

i don't think microsoft nex week needs to deliver something, this may sound in both cases, i don't know that it's that critical. the microsoft story to me is very much intact and they're in this game. >> what do you think? >> 32 times it's expensive and it's been expensive for a while it's priced at better continue to operate. all stocks are priced, they operate in the same way in perpetuity. it's one hiccup that gets people upset. facebook is a great example and that was for different reasons. things go pear shaped. glistening gains, silver 11 year highs, miners, moves in gold lagging. the sterling performance, that's not the only heavy metal mover, uranium stock touching 17-year highs, what's driving the move next. (ella) fashion moves fast. setting trends is our business. we need to scale with customer demand...

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the sil silver miners etf which holds names like man -- highest levels since 2022. tim. >> it's extraordinary what's going on in precious mentals, but also industrial metals. copper is all-time high, very scary for inflation if you think of what copper is a key ingredient of in so much infrastructure in this country let alone in ev and data center and let alone in all the things that are hot now. so copper, to me, might have been the story of the week. gold, another all-time high. you think about what's going on in other parts of, you know, kind of the hedging dynamics of why people might want to own gold. gold miners are actually playing ball, gold miners since february 20th, are 45% to gold's 19% move, the kind of beta you want when you're investing in miners, but i think if i was going to be

allocating a fresh dollar here, as much as i love gold miners and i've been long and staying long, the copper company is free port, southern copper, and then the integrated bhp and rio tentos, the most interesting right now with china making noise about more stimulus, that's the place to be. >> and when you think silver or gold, silver has an industrial use. silver could be a financial asset. silver is used in the renewables. tim touched on that. when you talk about gold it's really just for jewelry or you're in essential banks and inflation hedge, which is that's, of course, going to be big. but when you look at how many ounces of silver it takes to buy an ounce of fwolgold, i'm sure knew this, 80 ounces now, the average was 60, or 68 #, somewhere around there. so that spread, people are waiting for that spread to narrow a bit and hopefully they'll buy silver waiting on gold to come in. one or two things, silver will trade up. gold is going to trade down. while you're waiting you have a bunch of different industrial

uses for silver as you're waiting. >> how big do you think the central bank dynamic is in this gold trade? >> huge. so china, we just got data for april, china bought for the 18th consemitive month and the chinese consumer the other leg of this, you know it doesn't matter what stimulus china is doing because it's not touching the consumer. it's all industrial. it's all property, until the consumer gets more comfortable getting back into local stock market or bank products, they're buying gold beans, they're buying gold etfs, the etf from china in april was the record high. it's not the only flow out there, obviously, but what makes gold to me, unique, i like all the metals right now, but what makes gold to me unique is that it has this leg of support coming from an idiosyncratic factor, which is china, to a different degree than the other metals we're talking about. the others will outrun gold in the short run, they are less

liquid, so they'll move faster, but in terms of the long term, i want to keep my gold if i already own it, even if it lags. >> you say that so much better. it's not a high bar. >> are you going to defer your time to rebecca? >> i mean, she's -- all the things. >> i traded gold. i traded gold for years. >> yeah, guy traded gold a long time ago. >> we've been in the pits together. yeah. >> two peas in a pod. >> steve mentioned gold rash k ratio in layman terms, gold was half of its all-time high. even if silver were to recover a percentage of that it's got a 35 handle coming to a theater near you. what happened over the last couple days will bleed into the sunday open and precious metals and it will get really interesting. a lot more "fast money" to come, here's what's next. >> heavy metal movers, you rainium stocks soaring as the

u.s. ditches russia and goes all in on american nuclear power, what it means for the major players in an industry getting a huge shot in the arm, next. plus, china's latest plans to kick start its struggling real estate market. can the stimulus get the sector back on track? we'll sit down with an expert who says this creative move might not be enough. you're watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. one prawn. very good. did i say chicken wrong? tired of people not listening to what you want? it's truffle season! ah that's okay... never enough truffles. how much are they? it's a lot. oh okay - i'm good, that - it's like a priceless piece of art. enjoy. or when they sell you what they want? yeah. the more we understand you, the better we can help you. that's what u.s. bank is for. huge relief. yeah... ♪

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welcome back to "fast money," uranium stocks on the move after president biden signed a law banning russian imports of the heavy metal, the policy goes into effect in mid-august and unlocks nearly $3 billion in federal funding to expand the uranium industry in the united states. shares soaring more than 6%, highest close since june of 2007. you've been on the uranium train a long time, tim. >> not getting off. the squeezy nature of this is a combination of geopolitics, structural dynamics, things that have changed the way we view uranium, but no nukes concert at the garden.

>> unbelievable. >> jackson brown. >> springsteen. >> when was that? >> it's almost like we talk about music on the set all the time. >> '79. >> there's dynamics also within the market. suppliers are caught short. i think you actually have producers caught short. you have utilities caught short. i think it's a case where, i think it goes substantially higher, not necessarily because of the valuation in cameco is cheap, it's not, the squeeze is real, and the fundamental story for uranium is early days. >> pure play. it's hard to find pure plays in the market for this. but what's shocking to me is we're still buying 24% of uranium from russia in 2022. that, to me -- and then 12% in 2023. so, there is going to be a squeeze higher, and when you look at the world is going, by the way, it's bipartisan. people want to go to nuclear reac reactors, but it takes too long to build. they're the factors of that push

to uranium. >> back to the geopolitical and macro. every time we make one of these policy moves we always need to thinking about the tradeoff. so uranium is the immediate direct play, and good for you. but i'm trying to think about, what's the retaliatory strike, so to speak, from china, from russia, from iran as we keep pushing them closer together? you know, what's the next leg of this? and sadly tonight i don't have a good answer yet. it's too fresh and i'm still working through it. but all of these things, so, for example, you know, if the u.s., if we had a different president in a few months, and we have a different dollar policy and fed policy and we try to reduce our trade deficit, all these policy choices have costs. so if we're limiting uranium it gets more expensive, inflationary, potentially that's a cost, what are the other costs? if you can figure that out you're going to figure out the other trades that maybe we haven't figured out yet. >> wouldn't it be at oil? you know, you talk about iran,

and iranian oil is now in a different place than it was six months ago, and you talk about russia -- >> isn't oil higher? potentially, right. >> and china needs more and more, and say what you want about the chinese economy, their aggregate oil demands grows every year and they are looking for ways to get oil. >> if we have a different president in a few months and he is determined to increase drilling a lot, he wants to cut taxes for growth that pushes up demand, but if we also open up supply by creating a lot more drilling, i'm not sure if its prices higher, there's the geopolitical risk but other policy risk. work through those. >> real quick, ccj hit 17-year high, nlr is uranium and nuclear etf that's not 17-year high, that might be underperforming but that could play catch-up. transport technicals, the chart master will return for a look at the sector. it is so bad, it's good, or maybe it's a pair of twos. tell us the tale of where this group is headed next. plus, china, trying to

inject some life back into its beaten down real estate market but is this latest round of stimulus enough to kick start a real recovery? we'll be joined for a deep dive into one of the biggest markets on earth right after this.

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welcome back to fast money, the dough eking out a gain to close above 40,000 for the first time, the index locking in a five-week winning streak, the s&p also higher, retaking the 5300 level while the nasdaq closed down about 12 points. and while we're hit ago fresh all-time high today, gaining another percent of citi, reiterating the stock as a top pick. altria ninth straight day of gains, and tobacco stock up shy of 6%. and the bank etf, big names, jp morgan, gold man sachs, while wang bank of america highest

level since 2022. >> i like big banks. we've seen the wedge between the billing and small banks and i say to that effect every time i'm on the show. still in that camp. as long as you have rates up here at these levels and we have regulatory concerns the small banks are going to keep lagging, but the big ones right now, i think, are, in general, in good shape. >> meantime, chinese stocks rallying as the country federal bank introduced more aggressive -- regulators hoping a major investment in affordable housing, removing the floor on mortgage rates and cutting the minimum downpayment for home buyers can get consumers spending again. retail sales data came in lower than expected. while property investment fell 10 from last year. why are the latest reforms enough to -- let's bring in the managing director, senior policy analyst at long view global. good to have you with us. off the bat a lot of analysts are saying this is just not enough and when it comes to

allowing mortgage rates to be lower, the chinese consumer doesn't have the wherewithal or the confidence to go into the property market. what does this do in your view? >> it's a good question, melissa and first of all, thanks for having me. there's data that suggests that china needs about 2.1 trillion with a "t," dollars to adequately address the problems in this property sector. that's unsold, undelivered units, unfinished projects. this is a $42 billion fund, melissa, that's a large delta, and so that leads to my next question. and that is, given that 42 billion won't be able to really suck up the glut, how will they determine who has access to this $42 billion? will there be a national guideline to determine that? will each locality be allowed to put in place their own criteria, leading for uneven application of the policy? perhaps even some rent seeking. there's a lot of unknowns in the

policy specifics but that's the bad news. melissa. i do think there's good news here. the good news, the policy signal that this sends. the policy signal here is, china realizes that this is not going to go away without significant intervention, it is shown that the central government is prepared to course correct after a long period of time, perhaps, and that they can be innovative and creative in their policy approach, and i think the affordable housing angle to this, melissa, is really creative. there's a real problem in china with quality, affordable housing, particularly in this migrant sector. devil is in the details about whether or not this is enough. i'm doubtful but i certainly think the policy signal is positive. >> the other possible piece of this puzzle, is beijing announcing a 1 trillion yuan sovereign bond sale, only fourth in the last 26 years, and the purpose for this sale is not to

disclose. it could be for anything basically. do you think this feeds into a pack oj or rescue plan or possible stimulus, president xi did talk about the consumer that needed some help. >> i hope so, melissa, i think what it says to me, again, is that there's a real desire to course correct. again, it took a while to get here, but this says to me that they're getting some powder ready to do something big, and needing to do something big has probably finally hit home to xi. for so long the narrative was it's all about natural security, well, we're starting to see that perhaps the economy does need some attention. i think this bond fund is another example of perhaps getting some powder ready to do something big. >> if we could oversimplify, you said course correct. are you talking cyclical, for china, we're wondering whether they're coming back from covid. if you're an investor, and i understand there's a major corporate governance and

geopolitics at work, but you're telling me this about a return from covid. i'm in here all day long, it's going to happen at some point. china had decent production numbers, their cpi, which you want to go higher, actually showed signs of life. i'm an investor, concerned about the geopolitics, concerned about big brother taking out the biggest tech companies but ultimately, should i care whether china starts to grow a little bit now or they grow more next year? in other words, are we saying china is going to grow 1% in perpetuity, that's what it comes down to, especially if you want to make a short -- excuse me, a medium to long-term bet investing in china which a lot of investors do. they don't need to trade actively. but they need to make call this place is unloved. >> good question, tim, let me say, i think where we are right now, is still trying to figure out how you put in place a structural turnaround. the real estate sector, to me, this is about stabilization, it's not wheregrowth is going to happen, this sector is not

going to ever be the growth driver anymore. but what is that new growth driver? and how will we make these structural adjustments in the near term? that, i think, is still up in the air. and you've often said this, tim, and i agree with it, it's not just growth, it's how you grow, where you grow, this top line gdp growth, 1%, 2, 5, the real question is, what is the long-term growth driver? and i think we're still trying to figure that out. >> great to see you, thank you and have a great weekend. >> thank you, melissa. so the question i guess here is the rally that we've seen in chinese stocks was in anticipation of all of what is starting to unfold here. or no? >> i don't think so, but i understand the premise of your question was the market looking to where we are today. >> going to do something. >> yeah. >> unveil the stimulus. >> the answer in retrospect, i'll say this, technically it

made a lot of sense and in terms of just the sentiment around china back in january it was so ridiculously low. just me, a lot of catchup left in a lot of these names. alibaba shrugged off that quarter, closing in on 90 bucks now. >> the rhetoric has got to get worse going forward in an election year cycle. >> for u.s.-china relations. >> because trump will be bashing, republicans will be bashing, and biden is forced to bash, we have a debate, potentially coming up. so i think that rhetoric is going to really amp up. but i don't know how long, and rebecca will probably answer this. how long can they support their economy? they're propping up iran. they're propping up russia. and now they're propping up themselves. is this paper tiger? >> china has trillions of dollars in their sovereign wealth fund in their central bank they can deploy and their federal deficit is tiny.

now, if you take all the deficits together in china, it's very sizable. but they have room that they can do more stimulus, whether it's the national team coming and literally propping up the stock market or putting money in the economy. i think the bigger issue is the will among president xi and his top leadership to actually help the consumer. they decided a decade ago they wanted for a more diverse economy and they wanted a bigger role of the consumer. the consumer accounts for half of the gdp but they're not helping the consumer. we need the red envelopes, the equivalent of a transfer check we had during covid here in the u.s. to get the consumer back. without the consumer back, they're a two-legged stool and they need a third leg. >> coming up, a complimentary dose of chart master. he's weighed in on nvidia. now he's trucking into the transports. for "fast money" itwn o. but it's not the critic who counts. with every swing and block,

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master, carter braxton worth. what do you see? >> three comparative charts, long term for fun. this is going back to 1934. so 90 year chart after the crash of '29 and we started to base. the transports and the dow are dead even, remarkably. let's look at something closer. second comparative chart. what you see here over the five-year period dead even as well. now it gets to the spread, let's look at a near term chart three years just to put this in context and this is where the dow is unch, the transports, excuse me, for three years, no progress, and of course the dow is up some 15, 16%. and let's look at the absolute chart, and this is where we have to figure out what is the direction? we have converging trend lines, we know this, at one point on the spike high, price weighted index, $500 a share, representing a 20% weight of the index, now of course the biggest at 10%, much different, my hunch

is it breaks out but it takes a lot to get back to the former high. you're talking about a 17% move just to do that. so, a lagger that has catch-up potential and then finally, just for what it's worth, last slide, we have here is a table for those who are interested in value, if you will, look at the difference in industrials, the utilities and the transports, whether it is pe or price to cash flow or price to sales, on the bottom there, transports, for reason, of course, because they're cheap and cyclical, they're very heavy into debt, in a different kind of way than utilities, and don't offer the yield that utilities do. if one is playing for value, this possibly is the place to do it. >> carter, thank you. carter braxton worth. >> carter's got a good look to do. >> press room. >> a little dishevelled. >> it's like a friday -- >> like a bad you know what look. >> bad ass. >> hitting the charts.

is transports the place to be? >> i don't think so. union pacific is 18%. that's a little bit of a double top. uber, 17%. that's been rolling over now for the last couple weeks, and ups, 10% awful now for a while. kroouf got to hope all three of the u's get back on the horse, i don't think they will, and the iyt is a huge double top. >> but your point is a good one, be careful what you own. i don't know that you can paint the brush on the entire transport space, uber, ups and union pacific, there's company-specific things at all of those places that i think are part of the reason, they're the three top weights. right there you have probably 40% of that iyt, which isn't necessarily the transport index, it's how one etf has done it, but i agree with that point, i think transports have been fascinating because if you lock at fedex, a year and a half ago, the move in fedex, which was a rocket, and ups, led this move in the market. >> i'll go into one piece,

trekking, one of my favorite things i learned from evercore isi and ed hyman, the last mile truck, delivering the stuff to your house is a great leading indicator on the consumer. if we're all worried about earnings and will the consumer keep spending and keep using the credit card you do want to keep an eye on this piece of the transports, which is the short route trucks, especially, as long as they're doing well and you're seeing good business there, you can take a sigh of relief, at least, on the consumer. >> coming up, robinhood ripping on a double upgrade at bank of america, why analysts say this is prime for major growth. that's next.

people couldn't see my potential. so i had to show them. i've run this place for 20 years, but i still need to prove that i'm more than what you see on paper. today i'm the ceo of my own company. it's the way my mind works. i have a very mechanical brain. why are we not rethinking this? i am more... i'm more than who i am on paper. a slow network is no network for business. that's why more choose comcast business. and now, we're introducing ultimate speed for business

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year. and those trends started way before the latest meme stock craziness that happened this week, by the way. >> he's right, he's late, but he's not wrong. and, you know, we talked about finally getting profitable, they figured things out for the first time in a while, and the turn is noticeable in terms of what they're doing. so, i admire him for at least, double dog dare he went from sell to buy, good for him. i didn't think you were allowed to do that. but room on the upside. >> we had mizuho on the disk, around $11. they caught the biggest move. if you're bullish on crypto, you should be bullish on hood, if you think bitcoin is going higher that is the best proxy to use. i think he's got a $24 price start, so you have a 20% move to the upside, basically, here. i think -- it was dead money for two years. now it's got a pop in it, i still think you have a lot of runway for the name. >> the argument he just gave in that clip was abargument to buy any broker. and i'm not being snarky, i'm

saying actually i look at schwab, and i brought up trowe the hoer night. it's been so beaten up and some of it is just the fact that their growth in aum has been very stagnant. if you look at what the market is doing, it's a lot of passive investing, there's some value in there. guy and dan have called out hood, they were early on that. >> on the charles schwab point, the integration with td is still going on. while that's going on, still, there's blood in the water and so there could be some share gains by other brokers. like robin hood. >> yeah, no, listen, tim's point is spot on and he's not being snarky. the argument could be made across a swath of brokerages but the most hair triggered or spring loaded it's still robin hood. >> what does hair trigger mean? >> anything could set it off. >> quick point, 32 is the average age of a robinhood client. and i think that's going to be -- >> none of us here.

>> right. >> speak for yourself zbl. >> do they have the money? is it differentiated enough and cheap enough? >> that was the old argument. >> i don't know, i don't know. >> up next, final trades. [crowd chanting] they ignored your potential, dissed your achievements, and mocked your ambition. but it's not the critic who counts, and you know that. from the beginning, you couldn't be stopped. ♪♪ breaking resistance with every swing and block. ♪♪ your game plan never changed. ♪♪ so enjoy this moment. ♪♪ the one they said you'd never live to see. ♪♪ some would still call it luck. ♪♪ let them.

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at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real. do not miss the adviser summit wednesday. time seymour is joining the panelists, scan a qr code to visit cnbc events.com/fa, final trade time. tim seymour. >> that's a must. all advisers should be there. i'll be there. ten cent music should be on your list, one of the chinese names up 43%. >> and rebecca patterson, nice

to have you here on the show. >> thank you, i like gld. silver might beat it short term but as a small allocation to hold forever, keep on it. gld. >> west rock, up big, more to go. >> guy. >> paas. >> thanks for my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always and i romise to help you find it. mad money starts now. >> tom cramer, welcome in to mad money . i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just entertained but teach you. tweet me. after a last-minute push today we took out the dell 40,000 miles to reveal once again the bears are fi