♪ good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm arabile gumede these are your headlines this morning. european equities trade near record levels as markets calm down to u.s. inflations data. inflation data managing to pick up in china, but credit demand shrinking for the first time since 2017.

softbank swings to a loss of 60 billion yen, but still returns to profit on the group level. israel orders more residents to evacuate from rafah as the death toll in gaza tops 35,000 u.s. secretary of state antony blinken saying washington needs more clarity on the strategy >> we haven't decided what happens after the war ends right now, the trajectory that israel is on is that if it goes in and takes heavy action, there will still be thousands of hamas left welcome to monday morning "street signs. it's been an hour since the markets have opened. we are seeing gains marginally we still have the earnings front

and data and key is the u.s. inflation print later on this week just to note, investors keeping an eye on that with travel and leisure stocks picking up 0.5% most of the sectors managing to find green positivity is what you get from the overall market picture we will zone in on the sectors now. this is what you are getting from the boards. this is where you see the gains. the ftse 100 is still firmly above 8,000. in fact, headed for 8,500. still record territory across that territory french and german markets around the flat line. the ibex 35 is seeing slight gains so far on to the sectors, this is what is moving things along travel and leisure stocks with marginal gains there now that's faded a little bit.

you see autos managing to gain .75%. healthcare is up as well retail stocks on the fold with the earnings later this week construction and materials we focus on which one of those is managing to move higher later on construction and materials are .50% higher. basic resources with m&a news out of the basic resources from the uk and nothing so far with industrials are .25% to the u.s. futures here and it is all about the data and the inflation print anticipated later this week. retail companies are on deck results have helped stocks remain resilient despite the overhang 92% of s&p 500 companies reported surpassing wall street

forecasts. we look like we could be headed for a slightly uppish tone on the markets. consumer sentiment slipped to a six-month low in may in the u.s. coming in at 67.4 short-term inflation expectations ticked up with the consumers expecting prices to rise at an annual rate of 3.5% over the next year that's nearly double the 2% the fed is looking for here and the highest level in six months. also, inflation data dominating the week's agenda with the numbers out of germany and eurozone as well as the united states core cpi is forecast to rise by 3.6% which would be the smallest annual increase in three years that's stateside cpi on the earnings front, softbank

reported a profit of $2.1 billion in thing e fourth quartr we will get numbers from germany late near r in the week as wells jd.com the fed president neel kashkari and chicago president austan goolsbee is looking into the policy being restrictive enough. >> why is the fed saying the financial conditions are tight we think monetary policy works through financial conditions and if the business community does not feel like financial conditions are tight, that makes me question maybe we're not as restrictive as we would have guessed. >> on the question of are we restrictive? the fed doesn't control long rates. i tend to look at the fed funds

rate minus inflation and the real fed funds rate. to me, the level of that is as high as it has been in some time i feel like we're in a restrictive territory. >> so the head of gt fx research joins us in studio thank you for the chance to be here i want to start off with the dollar rally which has begun to fade does that rally continue to fade until we see greater prospects of the fed cutting rates >> indeed. i think a couple of drivers to the risk rally and one is the fed's reaction function to the incoming data. it is the case that the fed has started focusing on its so-called dual mandate fed chair powell has been discussing that while trying to

bring inflation under control. the markets are pricing in 40 basis points of cuts this year the question ahead of this week's cpi is whether the process of re-pricing of rate cuts from the fed will continue. it could be a key print in that and if our expectations are confirmed, that is the first dip in core cpi since the start of the year after the unwelcome calling of the down trend happened between january and march. if, indeed, that is confirmed, i guess, the re-pricing of additional rate cuts from the fed could be a boost to risk sentiment. >> now all of a sudden it is a case of we're going to look at employment more plus want the 2% it is a struggle to get to 2% with growth so high. yes, it dipped to 1.6%

that will still continue to be resilient. >> more or less. the u.s. has been the surprise to us as the out performer we thought the combination of tightening strong monetary policy and the dollar will take the toll on the u.s. economy that is still to happen the point about the shift was important and i would say the margin is dovish because the fed, up untilthen, was forced to focus on inflation. now that the economy is showing some signs of weakening, we had the university of michigan last week and the initial jobless claims, so that dual mandate could be prominent if inflation finally starts to come off the boil this will give the fed some leeway to focus on the second part of the mandate. i guess the combination of the dual mandate and in line with expectations on wednesday could

be seen as supportive for risk sentiment and slightly negative for the dollar. >> ultimately, let's call it a good news story for the fed in their hopes of trying to cut rates if you had, other than the michigan sentiment last week, you still had gdp 1.6% in the first half of the year and inflation hopefully continuing the trajectory lower being the hope with the job numbers. is it about the economic softening -- the data just continuing to soften from here on that's all they are focusing on and that bad news becomes good news again as the portrayal? >> you hope so in the big scheme of things with the fed trying to slow down the economy to slowdown inflation to avoid recession. as you highlighted, it is never this easy. for the fed, any good news, in terms of weaker inflation, is

welcome. clearly, if they are looking at the other part of the equation and the economy is accelerating more significantly, that is a sign they may need to actually consider rate cuts before too long to your point, the scheme of things is the fed is heading toward the easing. other central banks will be dovish from that point ofview, the dollar will likely have that undisputed high yield currency the irony is, to your point, if the fed is increasing the more dovish, the u.s. data mix is supportive of that view and the fed starts to cut rates in the boost risk to sentiment and carry rates. the dollar will still have sufficiently high rate appeal to out perform low yields the japanese yen has fared well. euro could be seen as one such currency which has inferior rate

appeal to the dollar our an accommodation to clients is still constructive on the dollar, but selective and indiscriminate dollar across the board. you really want to bet on dollar appreciation, but mainly against lower yielding currencies. >> i wanted to ask about the pound. the yen becomes more significant to unpack as well. where will it get that support if there was this rumored support and intervention in the yen last week. it didn't move the needle much we're still at 155 >> that is a carry trait impact. it impacts the pound as well the theory is dovish, but the rates are sufficiently high at a time where markets are focusing on rates which counts for a lot. it could increase in importance. the japanese yen is the

quintessential currency there. you are talking about the lowest yielding currency in g 10 the boj, relative to expectations, were timid to address the issue. i think down the road, however, the direction of travel remains the same they will be tightening while everyone else will be ease egg e e easening >> that conversation is bound to get tinteresting is when they will hike. i want to move quickly to the pound. given a couple of seconds here as well. you have the bank of england last week deciding to keep rates unchanged and looking for a cut somewhere. it is coming out of recession as

well, being modest, but it is an election year in the uk, too what does this mean for the pound? >> in talking to clients -- >> a possible labour government. >> just discussing the election and the biggest change is a period of political instability. that is the bar not being very high in the very years this is seen as supportive for the economic outlook just because you have the same government and same prime minister for a period of time. a longer-term legislation. people you want to talk to and that is certainly a great help when it comes to long-term business planning. the second and not as important or nowhere near as important is the relationship with the eu it is clear that the country

changes significantly and maybe improvements there may be marginal it is the case where it is adding to the constructive outlook more broadly with the institutional framework with the support of the longer-term investment in the uk i keep going on about investment because the one thing that has been a significant drag on in investment in the uk is the uncertainty associated with brexit and the uncertainty with the pandemic and once the pandemic was over, investment is picking up and now you have political instability. with that removed, hopefully, we will see brightening up of the economic outlook. >> rishi sunak's parliament and government is at issue thank you. we hope to get yourthoughts later on i appreciate your time the head of the g10 fx research

at credit agricole. now u.s. president joe biden is set to hike tariffs on chinese electric vehicles and lev levies on other industries that's according to multiple reports. the to thetotal tarr iff will j 10%. volkswagen's head says such a move would risk international brands that are operating in china. chinese consumer inflation rose for the third month in april as policy boosts demand.

producer prices continue to decline. sam baddass that report. >> reporter: demand continued to recover and inflation also edged higher at the core pointing to stabilization. the producer prices stayed negative, but the rate of ppi de deflation eased. there are still challenges in the labor market which is key to reflation. spending per head during the may holiday was softer than 2019 levels reinforcing that chinese consumers are cautious highlighting that trend means new loans fell last month and household borrowing contracted tsf tlslowed to the record low

turning negative the pboc stated its stance the problem for the central bank right now is more credit going to considering than consumption which could add to deflation expectations and limit the effectiveness of other tools to support the economy further, particularly around infrastructure, china will issue long-dated treasury bonds from may 17th the move has been watched by the market after being announced in march at the npc in singapore, sam baddas, singapore business news. coming up on the show, shot in the arm softbank swinging to the second consecutive quarterly net profit thanks to the investment in the chip design firm we'll get to the latest after the break. stay tuned under of the utiful fo when i started in 2016 i would go to the post office and literally fill out each person's name on a label

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mobile savings are calling. visit xfinitymobile.com to learn more. doc? welcome back now, softbank booked 330 billion yen in net profit for the fourth quarter.

it wasn't enough to put the firm in the black for the fiscal year the vision fund posted an investment loss of 57.5 billion yen for the period after three straight quarters of profit. arjun is joining us with more. arjun, what is going on? is that the sentiment? group level is higher, but vision fund is not doing well. you think with the number of companies in there and tech stocks surging, that it would be doing better >> we are seeing early signs of recovery with softbank the vision fund off the back of three straight quarters of gains as well for the actual fiscal year with the vision fund posted its first overall gain since 2021 there are early signs of recovery in the vision fund, but still a number of issues and a lot of portfolio companies that softbank hasn't been able to monetize yet or gone public.

bytedance still needs to monetize when does softbank begin to monetize the large investments and outsized bets and realize some of the gains? >> they have been a big company with bytedance and the issues stateside. >> absolutely. we have seen that take a knock over the past couple years with the geopolitical situation with the tiktok facing age potential ban in the u.s. and what has hit the sector in the last few years. that is an issue they have another company called fanatics in the portfolio. the question is when do these begin to be monetized. what are the investments that softbank is going to make to capitalize on the a.i. boom the

past couple years. i was literally listening to the earnings conference with the cfo. he was saying that arm is core to the company's shift to a.i. he was looking at the way the assets held by softbank versus 2020 and saying arm is 48% of the company's assets held versus just 10% in 2020 alibaba, once 48% of the assets, now near zero. there is a big shift with the company and clearly arm has been a core part to the way that mashi son feels they can move forward. >> you spoke to steve about this earlier, but is mashi son going to move this forward

you don't always need to be a first mover, but the first push up could be significant. >> you expect softbank to be early in a.i there is an argument to be made mashi son missed some the early opportunities. we are still in what is very early innings. a.i. has been around for a long time it is popcoming to the floor wih the chatgpt and now others are talking about it with microsoft and more opportunities in the space whether it is on the chip front. >> many companies are hurt for the investment in a.i. initially, it was you have a.i. or the ability to get into it which pushed your company up significantly. now, if you invest in it, ask

meta or facebook it hurt to say we are investing loads into the space it hurts. >> i think investors want to see that discipline. we understand the need to invest in a.i., but we need to see the returns on those investments that is part of the puzzle for companies that are missing right now. we know a.i. is a very important and interesting technology, but how do you make money off it that is the question many have yet to answer. >> the rubber needs to hit the road with the a.i. play. that is an interesting play. thank you for that reporting for more on softbank's numbers, check out arjun's article on cnbc.com. speaking of arm, it is planning to develop its own a.i. chip according to the nikkei it says the prototype could be ready by next spring with production pencilled in for the autumn the uk based designer will carry the development costs with

softbank contributing once the system is established and then it could be spun off and placed under softbank south korea's financial minister is set to announce details on the chip investment package worth $7 billion that comes as the race for dominance heats up globally. this is expected to target chip material and equipment makers and could include policy loans and state fund chery kang filed this report >> looking to defend this chip supremacy as the finance minister revealed his government is preparing a $7.3 billion support package for the industry the main target with the chip materials makers, equipment makers and fab companies in south korea. the question is how the country will fund this

the minister said more details are coming soon, but did tease about using policy loans and setting up a joint fund financed by public and private financial institutions this is on top of the mega cluster project announced early this year where south korea wants to build new factories and enhance self sufficiently in semiconductors the support package is put together as the u.s./china rivalry is complicating supply chains and as the u.s. is bringing south korean heavyweights like samsung and sk to its soil with the rush of federal funding under the chips act. in the meantime, the diplomats of south korea and china are set to hold talks in beijing on monday

one of the highly speculated items is the u.s. chip export restrictions on china i'm chery kang, cnbc, hong kong. india is pushing in on the semiconductor powerhouse and you can check out our report online on cnbc.com. coming up on the show, putin shakes up his defense team two years into the war we will bring you the latest after the break. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000

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welcome to "street signs." i'm arabile gumede and these are your headlines european equities trade near record levels as markets come down to u.s. inflation data this week. fresh data painting a mixed picture for china. c consumer data picks up, but credit shrinks since 2017.

and softbank saying the vision fund has overcome significant challenges >> for the full year of 2022, we recorded 5 trillion yen and improved by 67 billion which is a huge improvement. israel orders more evacuations as u.s. secretary of state antony blinken says we need more strategy >> right now, the extrajectory this israel is on and takes heavy action in rafah, there will still be thousands of armed hamas left if you are looking for a mixed market trading picture,

this is what you get you are still in record territory for the ftse 100 which is moving significantly higher firmly above 8,000 pounints nearing 8,500. the dax and stoxx 600 managing to find a negative tilt. in and around the 0% is what you are seeing if you looking for some direction, you will get it from the inflation printout of the united states. that is anticipated later this week you do have earnings still being put in the market. we will focus again on that. when it comes to the fx, the dollar has lost shine as of late that is what we have been talking about a little bit earlier. you are seeing stability euro/dollar at 107.75. the japanese yen touched 160 last week.

that has come off to 155 still a significant mark where we could consider intervention being part of the trading. the speculation and rumors that you did see intervention coming into play. c nothing confirmed from the japanese authorities the british pound is 125.20. on the european yields, european yields on friday actually went lower and catching up to what we saw as the initial u.s. treasuries fall on thursday. u.s. treasuries began to pick up on friday. perhaps a bit of catch-up trade they are also looking for clues on the fed policy as we heard from neel kashkari and austan goolsbee with regards to what they think rates could be doing. the question is if any rate cuts kickoff this year and whether

they offer any symbolism to a rate cut path for the future across europe, anticipation is you will see june become the mark for the interest rate cuts. 2.51 for the ten-year bund italian at 3.85 paper. the ten-year yield in the united states is at the 4.5% mark. european banks are one we could focus on past 200 points and that is at a nine-year high and managing to gain .13%. it is gaining 18% year to date past 200 and now at the highest point since august of 2015 that shows some confidence coming back into some of the lenders. to give you a note, the number of investors who are also making

short bets against the european banks have managed to go a little bit higher. yes, you are seeing this begin to pick up, but the short investors are betting that things will drop off consistently so, they have data from hazel tree saying the number of funds betting on the share price for nat west has doubled from 16 to 31. deutsche bank has seen an increase ing, in fact, has had 21 investors shorting it. that's up from seven at the start of the year. clear signs that european banks are getting into favor, but some traders are not necessarily trusting it will happen for the long term. out of the united states, that inflation print is the one that we are looking toward and that is why you are seeing the market opening more cautiously. yes, optimism is still in play

you have the dow with the eighth positive session in a row on friday the longest win streak of the year the nasdaq has, however, been the only major loser on friday gaining 1% despite the 5% fall from the s&p earlier this month, it is 32 points away from the record peak. let's head to russia where vladimir putin has removed his long-term ally after 12 years in the role the russian president appointed a civilian economist and former deputy prime minister as his replacement. to israel which has moved into northern gaza and sending tanks into jabalia which is home to 100,000 people. this has intensified pressure on rafah ordering fresh evacuation orders on the city

u.s. secretary of state antony blinken stating the u.s. would not support military action in rafah without a credible plan for civilians. dan is joining us for more on the story. the u.s. saying they need more information with regards to israel's strategy. are we beginning to see wea weanweaning off of support, dan? >> reporter: arabile, we are seeing a rift and fracture with the u.s. and israel as the war in gaza continues to unfold here the administration, of course, really struggling to come up with the narrativeover how far its support for israel will go you will recall that president biden has said the united states will stop sending bombs and materials to israel if it continues to invade rafah. it is already in rafah and how

far israel is willing to go remains to be seen the prime minister said they have yet to cross a line there the u.s. secretary of state antony blinken was on "meet the press" on sunday and was not able to offer what a red line means. listen to this. >> what we have seen over the last few months is a deep concern about the possibility of the major military operation in rafah given the damage it would do to civilians. there are more than 1.1 million palestinians in gaza absent a plan to get them out of the way and support them, the president has been clear for some time that we couldn't and would not support a major military operation in rafah. >> reporter: the biden white house here struggling to outline clearly how far its support for israel will go, particularly when it comes to the operations in rafah as the secretary of

state outlined with more than 1 million palestinians sheltering. frank, we saw fighting intensifying and the forces said overnight that dozens of militants had been killed in rafah according to nbc news. hamas also said on sunday there had been fierce fighting in northern gaza. we are seeing intensification on the ground as well clearly, the situation is very volatile and cease-fire talks are continuing in the background to no availa at this point back to you. >> thank you, dan, for that comment of frank, but i have a beard to sut for that. >> reporter: i'm sorry, arabile. apologies. >> thank you for that reporting there, dan let's continue this

conversation the distinguished fellow at the german marshall fund from the u.s. and joins us now to unpack. ian, thank you for the time. i appreciate it. despite the u.s. saying they will not support offensive on rafah without a plan of sorts that they can agree with, you find the u.s. saying one thing and doing another. do we expect prime minister netanyahu to act or behave any differently here >> i think what we're seeing and this comes through from the secretary of state's comments is tremendous frustration in the united states with the direction of the israeli strategy. the biden administration has been supportive of israel and in general terms, society and record politics is supportive on both sides of the aisle. the secretary said what is the day after? the day after for security and

reconstruction and political arrangements with the palestinians there is little sense that israel has coherent strategy beyond operations in rafah in the meantime, they are already there, but a deep concern in washington that the operation doesn't follow the operations previously with the tremendous civil costs >> one would say that, you know, a firm stance by the u.s. would be the best possible way to change israel's behavior or mindset. does it feel they are applying the pressure that could create that change right now? >> i think this is part of the frustration. i don't think there are really any expectations in washington that whatever the u.s. does is going to absolutely turn around israeli strategy the shock of october 7th experience together with the very extreme nature actually of the israeli cabinet and

netanyahu's precarious situation makes that unlikely. there are aspects of support for israel with the missile defense where the u.s. will remain supportive there is every potential for further measures and sanctions simply to try to constrain or reshape the israeli strategy as it unfolds in rafah. i think it is frustration on both sides >> enter egypt they were a key mediator in the conflict and among the first countries to recognize israel in 1979 what is the participation mean for the ckconflict >> egypt has a concern being a close neighbor they have their interests with the prevention of refugee flows and all sorts of things that the egyptian government would be

worried about. it is not surprising to me that egypt would play this role and they have public opinion which is supportive of the palestinian cause. for egypt, i think this is not a surprising move. there is also a good deal of pragmatism egypt and israel have to work together to manage the situation over the longer term >> trying to work together here, though, is becoming a little more tenuous the situation seems to be escalating even if it is just in little ways with no solution ultimately in sight. is it a funding issue in the u.s. is it becoming a backing issue in egypt or some of the other players around that same area? >> i don't think it is a funding issue. it is not so much about that it is israel's sense of the sovereignty and security interests on the one hand which

have been put to the test. american frustration with the israeli strategy and what comes next and then the regional states around israel with their stakes in what happens next. there will be things happening next in terms of the politics on the palestinian side and in terms of reconstruction and where there will be a massive effort necessary humanitarian relief near-term and long-term. on a more optimistic note, the notion that out of the terrible situation, some breakthrough may be achievable with a two-state solution or a broader agreement with israel and arab neighbors there is a potential for that, but we're not there and not really close at the moment >> that's the question mark. how close we could be to some sort of continued cease-fire or the end of the situation

completely does hamas who initially agreed to find some cease-fire previously, or all bets are off, ian? does it come to a sense that they no longer want to be part of the conversations to ease the con conflict >> it is hard to know in detail the hamas thinking about this, but i would guess they feel very, very hard pressed militarily and politically because there is every possibility if there is a cease-fire and settlement and at some stage there will be and there will be thinking back to the violence of october 7th after the strong push to keep them out of the arrangement in terms of the palestinian governments and reconstruction in gaza and in that sense, they would be big losers. they have a stake in keeping a hand in the negotiations to prevent that outcome >> ian, i appreciate the time this morning

thank you so much for giving us some sense of what's happening in the region. ian lesser for the german marshall fund of the united states. u.s. energy secretary-gsecr secretarsecr secretary jennifer granholm will make a trip to saudi arabia this week to talk about the energy mix in the region. to europe where france attracted 15 the billion euro in foreign direct investment at the annual choose france event according to president macron's office this includes the likes of amazon, pfizer and morgan stanley and microsoft which started a 4 billion euro investment in the country. coming up on the show, flirting with a london listing hurdles are too much in new

york we'll discuss more after the break. and a le stage. i remember setting up shipstation. one or two clicks and everything was up and running. i was printing out labels and saving money. shipstation saves us so much time. it makes it really easy and seamless. pick an order, print everything you need, slap the label onto the box, and it's ready to go. our costs for shipping were cut in half. just like that. shipstation. the #1 choice of online sellers. go to shipstation.com/tv and get 2 months free. what is cirkul? cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. cirkul is your frosted treat with a sweet kick of confidence. cirkul

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welcome back

zeekr surged in the debut on friday on the new york stock exchange the firm's cfo gave cnbc his thoughts on competition in the sector. >> if you look at the big picture, the market over there is very, very crowded. if you zoom in a little bit and look at each market's price brackets, there is an opening in the premium market sentiment for example, zeekr is selling cars priced here in 100 k to 500 k. we are competing with mercedes-benz and audi shein is pushing ahead with plans to list in london according to sources that spoke to reuters the chinese-founded group continues to face obstacles of the u.s. ipo coming under increased scrutiny from regulators the report suggests that shein will update on the i ppo locati

and could file with london this month. silvia is joining us with more on this one. silvia, i don't know how the london stock exchange will feel coming second. >> they may come first >> by default. >> it is early in the process to figure out what is happening here shein did not comment on reports that it might look at the lis listing in london. we know there have been c conversations with the uk and london jeremy hunt met with shein in february there were reports from december that manage ment as shein met with members from the stock exchange we will see what will happen here we know there was interest in the retailer in listing

stateside, but since then, there is a pushback from u.s. officials in terms of seeing this company listing on wall street for instance, lawmakers stateside highlighted the company is not transparent about the business practices and there are questions here about human rights and so on shein has said that it does not practice that sort of work, having said that when you look at london and think about the angle here of london, london could do with an ipo at this stage. there has been focus on the fact there hasn't been the same amount of listings here as stateside. let me share this figure with you. we are seeing the london stock exchange shrinking the last couple years market capital has fallen from $4.3 trillion in 2007 to $3 trillion this year

when you compare that with the numbers stateside, the trend is the opposite rather than the increase stateside to let you know, the american stocks rose more than $50 trillion over the same period. a different dynamic here let's see what happens with this interest will lead to an actual listing here or even stateside. >> having read the article and looking at something like this, so far this year, you go and compare them to the u.s. if you just stay in europe, so far this year, there have been four uk ipos out of 30 across europe that tells you a clearly picture where the uk sits in the broader mix of all these things. is there a fear that london and the uk will forego the concerns that the united states has in

order to get them listed here? >> that is the question. will there be a compromise and will they go in that direction to what extent we have to highlight interest in the uk stocks at the moment. a lot of conversations of potential takeovers with anglo american and we saw the deal a couple of weeks ago. there is interest in uk stocks and what is the future for the london stock exchange? we posed that question and we hear london is attractive and it is attractive to some companies, but can it compete with the wall street so far, there are a lot of challenges for london. >> if they are able to compete at this stage, they get bought out stateside. that is the worry that the market is trying to do away

with, if possible. i also understand they are courting colgate and others? >> that is an interesting time >> very interesting. silvia, thank you for that reporting. with that, let's check in on the european markets a mixed trading picture. flat across the ftse 100 some positivity out of italy that's what you are getting here we are leading off to the inflation print, of course, out of the united states we will see how things fare on that one we look like we could be headed for a better opening bell. that's it for today. i'm arabile gumede "worldwide exchange" is next ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for

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