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tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  May 7, 2024 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT

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>> also a growth industry for orthopedic surgeons. achilles, knees, hamstring. enjoy the pickleball, good social game and easier than tennis. great to have you back >> great to be back "closing bell" starts right now. welcome i am scott wapner. make or break hour begins with a rally, stocks going for the fourth consecutive day of gates but he moved back from the april bottom which some suggest is a sign there could be more to go. we will asked experts over the final stretch whether they agree. the scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation looks like that, a big green for most of the day but it has been leaking over the last 30 minutes. nasdaq is red. bond yields are mostly lower which has helped the russell 2000 outperform and the tech
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trade overall, it takes us to our talk of the tape, the great bounce back for stocks and whether it is sustainable. let's ask adam parker, ceo. >> you are not so sure this is sustainable and more cautious in a few months? >> yes, last week when we spoke, conditions are still the same, an equal chance of a 10% up versus 10% down, that makes me less confident because the data are mixed. for every good thing, i get upside on retail sales, down on housing. there is some good and some bad and enough to feed the bulls and bears. >> you have to get to a soft landing somehow isn't that the definition -- are you looking for -- where are you looking
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for the economy to keep rolling along and figuring out the inflations way to work in your favor even if it didn't? >> erode not imploded, the hominid dialects we knew we were going to slow but at what pace? the good news is, you don't have a synchronous contraction, so many things -- the cycles were at different times, housing on a different cycle than auto. on the things that are working that things can be positive i think earnings will grow. the street has 278 in earnings next year, is that about 18.7 times the number. 19 if they are too high. okay. not crazy expensive like this is awful, especially with bond yields being lower. it is okay but i don't feel as positive as the risk reward as 12, 15 months ago.
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>> an area you are more concerned about, tech. where, now a couple notes in a row from you, why technology investing is getting riskier? how do we get from come in a few weeks, wanting to still be overweight mega cap tech, to now riskier and we are riding the surfboard and time to put it back on top of the car? >> when you run a portfolio, you get 40, 50 stocks, they have been correctly benefiting from a.i. and semis an software, the debate will be, i had a debate earlier today, how much do i lighten that? the first thing that will result in stagflation, tech and energy and what will be bought
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is staples >> why do use stagflation? >> inflation picks up cyclically, i don't think that is the base case. >> the economy is slowing and not stagflation? >> what you think right now, have hard landing and have soft landing? >> are you not convinced by what the fed chair said last week with no stag? no flation? >> should i ever be confident with what the fed chair is saying? >> people have been getting crazy about the stagflation word. >> in the last two weeks, if you are in my world and searched the previous six months, zero mentions, now it has rocketed in the last two weeks because that one day had a high pce and weak gdp. i don't think it is a base case but tech is ripped.
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takes stops and looks at the ballots versus the market or beta, half of the stocks at 1.2 beta are higher are tech. if we get an economic slowdown, that will go down more than normal. guys who have done well and up this year, 7, 8, 9, 10, they don't want to lose it all, just like the great pick up, if we get a downdraft like we were at below 5000 a few sessions ago, people will buy a consumer staple or maybe healthcare services everyone hates and sell my palantir on the list of risky stocks before it blew up today. it is that logic you are trying to protect against. >> okay. we had brad on halftime. a growth manager. he invests in a lot of mega cap tech stocks. here is his positioning and reaction to what adam has
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written about protecting your capital. >> we have taken that our own exposure by 1000 to 2000 basis points in hour-long fund by adding shorts, custom basket shorts, we are worried about some things in the world, and reducing some of the overall position sizes. again, this is about all or none, not about 100% net long or 0%, this is about oing from 80% net long to start the the close to 60% today. >> makes a lot of sense. to me, that is what you are always -- look, if you are a growth manager, you want exposure for the next several years to ai software, life sciences, you will want to be long in those stocks but times were you will try to manage the risk. >> this is one of those times? >> more risk management today
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than six months ago. if i were correctly overweight a lot, i would be lightning until i get more clarity on the direction of how much the economy is eroding and where estimates will come out. a number of companies will do margin expansions, i still think that the fed will be accommodative then not a good cocktail for equities. what is really ripped and looks the most vulnerable is a lot of the highflying stocks. >> stan drucker miller, he trimmed his nvidia stock. a long-term believer in it but the flipside, others who say it is not hyped enough relative to what ai will deliver. that was eric schmidt as well, ai is under-hyped. >> i have sympathy for the view
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you can make money with things obvious in the long term. i don't think the nvidia trade is over. that would not be the one i would lighten. i feel like that is one that benefits the most and has the most upside on revenue. i would lighten other ai stuff. >> let's get specific. you don't shy away from giving specific. which one would you lighten up? >> a lot of semis that don't benefit as much as nvdia , they are up a lot. long-term, you want exposure. semi-cap equipment is up too much. all great business that will benefit but, if i have a 1500 base exposure in my portfolio and five or six names like this, nvdia would not be my first choice to lighten.
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>> jensen will be on overtime tomorrow. >> speaking of declines day over day, me and him in 25 hours. >> i always remind people, i don't take for granted, people know everything about everybody who come on. you speak to the semi conductor knowledge. >> if you told me 20 years ago that would be adding intel market cap on a one-day basis, i would have laughed in your face. they have done a lot of things right over the last 20 years. i want exposure to the best companies in the first and second year of a 10 year trend. i would rather keep that one and some of the tangentially related once people applying this is from a position of correctly overweight a lot and worried that you could have a correction. the stuff is higher beta. >> you are talking like palantir . >> that was on top of the list. higher beta to, shop at five --
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higher beta tech, shopify, more vulnerable. i want to avoid having a, the market got nervous and things are down. they are down disparately, not because of fundamentals but because they have attributes that people sell first. >> are you thinking about, speaking of power, not energy stocks so to speak, but utility plays? the power plays into ai? becoming a popular trend. they added because of the arms race buffett and company talking about it . a lot of investors now looking at these other ai plays not up to the moon in a short time. >> surprised we did not get an announcement from a mac seven that they were investing in
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power. i think you will get them saying we need our own power. we cannot just rely on it, we need these giant centers of ai around the country and power. we don't get enough. >> remember when delta bought a refiner? >> exactly. there could be more that. the people are playing those names not covered by people used to thinking about it to be +7 or 10 they are thinking about gdp growing. closet ways to get exposure that are not the obvious except nvdia , i don't know, the best looking person walks in the room and everyone likes them, you decide you don't like them because everyone else does. it does not make sense. >> let's bring in shannon. good to have you. is it time, as it relates to the growth trade, to protect capital or chase returns?
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>> i certainly don't think it is time to chase returns. i think one of the things we have continued to talk about is that, this broadening out trad , we have seen some stalling in that trade with the growth to value trade over the past couple of weeks. two things have driven that, rates, interest rates related to technology, it still matters. we talked about this last week on "closing bell." the impact of interest rate expectations on technical stocks. and earnings have come in fairly strong for discretionary and technology, you are seeing these questions about this broadening and this rotation, and in the short term, it has been this two factor experience that is creating this pump -- creating this bump. where to go? you mentioned healthcare, staples earnings for healthcare
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have not been that stellar and it is a difficult environment right now where people feeling like, from a risk management perspective, they want to lighten up on the tech trade if they have gotten it right . where are you going from here and where do you feel most comfortable? those have seen some performance it is tough to truly go defensive from, if you are overweight in tech , and trying to thread the needle in these other exposures and look at some industries and where there may be opportunity. >> what strikes me about your opinion of the market, the market clearly was soothed by a fed chair was not as hawkish as some feared he would be. he gave you the idea that they definitely want to cut, they will not do it quite yet. and, he had a confidence about him they believe they will pull off this soft landing without the whole thing deteriorating.
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i almost feel like you want to play a contrarian type of view do what we got last week. that, in some respects in that the pullback in his tracks, and has us back come up 4%, 5% since the april bottom. >> shannon is right as usual. changes to perceptions about rates and changes in perception about growth is what drives the market there was a change about the , people saying maybe they will hike more, he said, no, so i get it. >> down 20 basis points. >> i get that, part of what happened. now, feels like that is through the pipe and we have to look to the next incremental data point. i think he got helped by a weaker jobs outlook. a data port . a dovish data point from that standpoint we will see what
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happens over the rest of this month. i think earnings have been decent and guidance has generally been decent. we will get close to a fair level. >> will we have a recession? >> i don't know. i don't think so. i don't know if i care. do i think earnings are higher for the couple hundred companies ? i think so. >> will the margin story holdup? >> i do. i just worry a little bit about the commodities index come up 9% from lowe's, maybe the tailwind is less on the input cost. labor productivity will be huge and it can hold up in this level of economic activity. we will see about ai. healthcare, her point, the numbers have not been great. does it set up better for 2025? i am looking at the middles, what could happen in 2025?
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future earnings and down revisions at humana and united told you it wasn't as bad. maybe it sets up for better risk reward with low expectations as i look at next year. maybe early to put on the trade but that is what people are thinking about. as a small business, they have massive pricing power over me and these are the businesses that ultimately will benefit from ai the most as they don't higher ever again as a revenue growth and maybe fire people. they are an ai beneficiary on the cost side. that will be the bold case for healthcare but maybe a little bit too dreamy for shannon. >> what do you say? >> if you go back, i have been consistent on utilities and healthcare, on the healthcare side, i don't think you were wrong, there has been so much concentration in terms of performance, so much emphasis on glp-1 that the overwhelming
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opportunities outside of glp-1 and healthcare, there is also a management issue, glp-1 came out of the gate so fast last year and a lot of healthcare services, whether managed-care, disposables, consumables, on the healthcare side, they did not react, they were not ready. now, they have looked at estimates and what is happening in terms of glp-1 and extrapolating that out and modeling and giving better guidance. i agree, it may be a 2025 story. the valuations are setting up to be attractive. i do think there are pockets of opportunity. right now, the sentiment, especially with amgen last week coming out with their own glp-1 offering, that is getting a lot of attention in the short term. >> a lot of things that look interesting in healthcare.
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united therapeutics, find the one stock that grows faster with higher margins? there is some dislocations underneath i am hitting my screen, there is some stuff on sale. i should be paying attention to set up for 2025 >> given your clientele, you spoke to a growth manager, presumably a reasonably well known one, we are coming out of milken in l.a., hard-to-find pessimism, usually they are negative on the market, are the clients you are talking to, are they optimistic on where we are or not? >> more balance the negative. the ones with big piles of money, i do asset allocation, will always be more negative. i think shannon and i are centered around the headspace. when you go to milken, i have
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been a couple times, you should feel good about life, you are in the waldorf in beverly hills. you see famous people at every entry and learning interesting things from interesting people. >> you go to a lot of conferences and find people of that stratosphere, generally are more cautious. >> people who pick stocks for a living are not outright bullish we do 630 meetings per year, a huge number, people are not max bullish on the stock market right now and this 3% move has not change the view mostly about the fed and some getting the hedge case off the table it does not make hem say i will increase my bond to equity allocation. people believes there will be buybacks from corporate. people think maybe more speculative retail guy comes in and very tactfully. i don't think people with lots of money
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are like, time to back up the truck for a second half rally. the biggest reason is consumer , china not recovering, and the estimates for the second half, they do hockey stick a little, that is the opposite to the short term sentiment stuff. >> shannon, appreciate it, ada , as well. we are watching disney shares, dragging down the dow and on pace for the worst day in 18 months. that follows arnings julia has the details. >> reporter: disney shares are down over 9% after they said it's parts divisions are operating income would be flat in the fiscal third quarter. that compares to expectations of double-digit percentage gains in the quarter and they say that would be a head of a fiscal quarter for rebound expected. bernstein saying parkes is the anchor of the evaluation, plus
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the quarterly revenue is lighter than expectations and disney set its direct to consumer entertainment business would report a loss in the fiscal third quarter and would not add any new subscribers while the quarter two linear television operating income fell 22% and that was the bad news which outweighed the fact that disney be on the bottom line and raised the full-year earnings outlook and reported a surprise warty $7 million in profits for disney+ and hulu. iger said streaming will be a growth driver for the company as a crackdown on password sharing but that is not helping the stock which is down 9%. >> a little sell on the news perhaps because the stock has had quite a move. >> quite a run this year. if you look back over the past several years, still down but the shock is up dramatically this year in part because bob iger defeated the proxy battle with nelson peltz.
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a sense this accelerated the moves by iger to improve studio performance. >> we will talk to you soon. christina now for a look at the other big names moving into the close. >> reporter: coke up 19% after net sales increased and profitability improved in the first quarter. but the real driver for coca-cola consolidated inc. is the $3.1 billion stock repurchase plan as the market cap for context before the buyback announcement was $8 million and this buyback represents almost 40% of the market cap. shares of consumer health company kenvue are higher after announcing the lamp of 4% of the workforce, they split from johnson & johnson a year ago while they still market brands
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like listerine and band-aid, the job cuts are as the transition between both firms winds down. the firm also beat on, -- quarterly profit estimates. >> next, the big bounce back at big tech and whether the rebound has staying power. doug clinton is here, find out how he is sizing up the mega cap momentum and the names he thinks have more room to run live at the new york stock exchange and you are watching "closing bell" on cnbc .
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shares of meta up 31% since the start of year here is what i learned at that time report earlier today. >> the single greatest beneficiary of the ai boom, because ai powers all of their engagement and weather videos there showing you on instagram
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or on facebook, or the monetization, the targeting there providing to their advertisers a long-term shareholder, this is different than 2022 as they are the most fit and efficient company of the big cat in tech today. >> joining me is doug clinton of deepwater asset management , a shareholder of meta. what a difference a couple years makes do you agree with that? >> i do. i would not say they are the biggest absolute beneficiary, we also on google and you can make a case that google, with what they are doing in ai, has a better plate to create g.i. then -- than meta. for all those reasons, ai, and has the advertisements and engagement, those work at meta and they are a more hungry company than in 2022. >> when you hear stan
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drunkeniller talking about ai, but some say the space has benefited from too much hype. do you have a comeback? >> i think it is appropriate. where we think we are in the cycle, probably three or four of what will be a multi-year ai bull market. should there be hype? yes. we still have a long way to go there will be pull back and inevitably from here to peak, whenever that is and stand is the greatest trader ever -- stan is the greatest trader ever, but there is a lot more to come. >> if you think the hype is in the third or fourth inning, maybe the multiples are in the eighth inning.
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are you comfortable with the valuations of these stocks? >> we are, you can find stocks in the ai height space with reasonable valuations and if you believe there is more revenue coming from the ai boom, and you look at the top six, about 20 times forward earnings come in the middle of the historic range in the last 10 years, not overly inflated. you look at the names we own like vrt, ai data centerpoint and the trade at mid 30s forward eps and we think that is too low. >> alphabet, brad is also a believer in that, which is interesting because there was a point in time, not long ago where he wasn't, he famously sold the stock and criticize management and said they missed out to microsoft. more recentl , you have third point saying, for longer-term investors, alphabet, that mess and the
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noise created a buying opportunity. kershner bought it back and talks about how they can get more fit. listen. >> they are still in a great position and a lot they could do to trim a and get fit over at google and get the flywheel going. we were impressed by the searches they discussed in the quarter, both of the rate at which they are moving to ai enhanced searching and also the monetization of those searches which are coming in at the same monetization as they are seeing in core search. they will be a dog in the hunt. >> thoughts? >> agree 100%. what we have been saying about google since the beginning of the year, which they would have a meta year of efficiency in 2022. not about the margin and leanness, we are interested in finding the hunger, we talked about the pace of innovation at
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meta and that is what is driving the results even more so than margin. google has been hesitant to push with urgency to win the game of ai. open ai has not been hesitant and that says why open ai is ahead and google is not. >> do you think a fire has been lit under the company? they know they have no choice but to go full speed ahead. by the way, if you look -- i have been bringing this up as late, look at the performance of the stocks over the last 12 months, alphabet is up 62% over the last 12, and microsoft is up 32. the narrative would have you believe otherwise. >> it doesn't match and if you rewind the clock to march when sentiment was super negative with google, that may have been a little bit closer, the delta you are talking about. it has changed in two months
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where the narratives have shifted completely to google and investors have come back and started to believe they have found the fire. we heard about efficiency on the earnings call. if you backup, and google, they have all the pieces you need to be victorious in ai, distribution, billions of users, data better than anybod , and the engineering and infrastructure to do it but they have to put it together. >> they are sitting on a gold mine and they did nothing with it. obviously, that is not the full case but the market case. good to see you. coming up, major averages are climbing back towards all- time highs, s&p and nasdaq within striking distance of the records, we have some bullish signals and .2 more games we will explain this next did i read this?
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for news on the biden administration, what are we learning? >> reporter: the commerce department has revoked certain licenses for export to while away -- hauwei, commerce did not say which companies would be impacted but intel and qualcomm will be hit and
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limited in the amount of sales they can send to huawei. there was an indication that qualcomm understood this was coming and earnings they indicated that they did not expect revenues from huawei beyond this calendar year and was an indication that the companies knew this was coming. for now, commerce has revoked these licenses for experts to huawei. stocks try to hold onto gains in the final stretch as the s&p less than 2% from record highs. chris verrone at strategas research partners is back with where he sees the market going. gosh, a few weeks ago we felt, are we in the store for a 10% or more correction and here we are. should we be believers in this bounce back? >> we should for a couple reasons, by the third week of april, we saw the oversold
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conditions come together and the judge of an oversold is how the market responds and i think it has been compelling. number one, the victim back to where it was before the correction, credit conditions which never deteriorated even as the market was coming in. triple c's friends are on their lows and most importantly financials are back at the highs, these banks go to the correction and coming out of i . when you are working through this corrective phase, you want to pay attention to, what is the first groups making new highs. banks, global markets back at the highs. >> what does it mean and how long is a sustainable? >> good from mid-may to late july, the sell in may and go away, that doesn't work. historically, late may through late july is one of the sweet spot of the calendar. what is more important is how
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the leadership may be evolving. look at where the street is coming from, financials, materials, rest of world, the strength in china is underappreciated and the strength in europe is underappreciated. maybe we are changing what is driving it but i would expect new highs this summer. >> we have seen this movie before with more rod move higher. what does it mean for the tech trade ? there were questions about it but it came back and it came back strongly as a result of earnings. >> not as monolithic as it has been the last six or seven months. you saw with the max seven earnings, even microsecond -- microsoft, not too far from the highs. the chart looks fantastic and the rally in apple, we should be careful with as we are back into resistance. the bigger story, there is a broadening re-happening and the most important thing thing about this is the global markets go great. >> what is interesting, the ai
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story, we have been talking a lot about it on the network in the last few days, has maybe what considered traditionally offensive areas of the market but not necessarily defensive, looking specifically at utilities up 1.25% this week. because of all of the thought about, what will power all of these data centers and all this production of these ai chips? how are you thinking about that space and other traditionally defensive areas? >> we know we don't know. we have heard this moving utilities is the next way to play ai. be careful with narrative creep, that does raise an an tenant with us. it goes with staples because there is a countercyclical
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street and i would be careful about making the ai jump buy ai if you want ai. >> so crowded and the valuations are stretched. spent looking for other ways to play ai, i am not saying to buy every utility name but that is a legitimate angle and maybe the next angle to the ai story. another hypothesis, could utilities be turned because bond yields don't run away from us? that is where i think is the more consequential piece of information. >> choice c, all of the above. >> for investors, one poorly for six months from now, in your yield at 5.25% or at 4%. strengths in the bank, i argue for a 4% more than 5.25%. next, the biggest movers
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into the close. christina is standing by. investors are not oppressed, shares of a luxury car brand are lower come in one soul the most expensive car in the world. details next
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back to kristina for the stocks she is watching. >> datagod, 11% lower, the present is stepping down and revenue growth of the security software provided was lighter than by side expectation as morgan stanley puts it but nothing ball with this earnings report other than expectations have crept up after we saw growth in microsoft azure. did you guess the name of the sports car? ferrari disappointing with underwhelming earnings, flat deliveries, and reiterated the full year forecast as they don't plan any price increases on existing models. rather pushing on personalization, given the higher margins that means you pay more for paint color or a specific fabric to have that one-of-a-kind look. shares down 6%. >> thank you.
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the first earning report for reddit, shares are going highe , still trading about the yield price of 47 bucks. a quick programming note, don't miss barry sternlicht tonight at 7:00 eastern.
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nvdia position, saying ai may be overhyped in the near term and for a list of other ai related names that may be vulnerable to profit-taking, go to our website next, counting ror to reddit and wynn, both willept in overtime, a rundown of what to watch for when the results hit the table in the market is on next a future where you grew a dream into a reality. it's waiting for you. mere minutes away. the future is nothing but power and it's all yours. the all new godaddy airo. get your business online in minutes with the power of ai.
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her uncle's unhappy. get your business online in minutes i'm sensing an underlying issue. it's t-mobile. it started when we tried to get him under a new plan. but they they unexpectedly unraveled their “price lock” guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the “un-carrier”. you sing about “price lock” on those commercials. “the price lock, the price lock...” so, if you could change the price, change the name! it's not a lock, i know a lock. so how can we undo the damage? we could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. their connection is unreal. and we could all un-experience this whole session. okay, that's uncalled for.
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so this is pickleball? it's basically tennis for babies, but for adults. it should be called wiffle tennis. pickle! yeah, aw! whoo! ♪♪ these guys are intense. we got nothing to worry about. with e*trade from morgan stanley, we're ready for whatever gets served up. dude, you gotta work on your trash talk. i'd rather work on saving for retirement. or college, since you like to get schooled. that's a pretty good burn, right? got him. good game. thanks for coming to our clinic, first one's free. >> in the closing bell market zone. mike to break down the crucial moments of the training day. julia on reddit , the first
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earnings report as a publicly traded company. at 5200. i don't know if we will get there today but close. >> able to hang in there. it has been a sprint, volume is superlight. i say that as a way of people in the stress draining out of the market. look at the s&p index fund, etf, or qqq, not much more than half an average days volume and people are more comfortable with this set up, whether you have the horses to blast through the highs, still not clear. chris verrone was talking about the financials, banks are holding their gains today, making some hay with the decline in bond yields. consumer cyclicals, something i have been watching or how heavy they have been in the last couple of weeks, they are improving on a relative basis to things like staples. things are holding together reasonably
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well. >> what do you make about the commentary about the growth of trade of stanley druckenmiller , nvdia, trimming a little bit across the board . adam parker writing about protecting capital as a growth manager. >> you have seen the evidence in the actual market. the way that the stocks have flattened out on a relative basis and gotten more jumpy and responses to earnings. meta, two year chart with two vertical lines, massive company, and people are a little bit touchy about what their trajectory is. there is a huge debate in the market of, we know the obvious beneficiaries of ai. ultimately, don't new technologies mostly have the gains reaped by software and not hardware? the buildout, we have capitalized it but the rest there is uncertainty. interesting next phase and i think it is about portfolio positioning and going out of
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the crowd and towards things underexploited. >> talking about utilities as ai. going down that road. >> a reverse logic on that. they will have to spend a lot of money to topics to get that capacity up to deliver the power and greg was talking about that over the weekend. >> julia, reddit with their first earnings report as a publicly traded company. >> the very first one, are they showing the same digital advertising growth we saw from youtube, meta? the stock is up 45% from its ipo price of $34 per share and expect revenue of $213 million and a loss of $8.71 per share, analysts are looking for the company to report $76.6 million in daily active users, that would be up from the 73 million that reddit reported in s1.
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53% of analysts have a buy rating, 40% with a hold and 7% have a sell. contessa brewer will tell us what to expect from wynn reports . >> wynn is coming in with the casino earnings, we have gained perspective on the calendar, mgm and las vegas sands, mgm and caesars, and excitement will come from wynn significantly outperforming its competitors or underperforming analyst are likely to ask more about their plans to open a middle east casino and resort in the uae early in 2027. we have artist renderings released just yesterday. the tower is underway. this will be a game changer for the middle east. gambling in the united arab emirates. meanwhile, the street is
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expecting wynn to come in with revenue of $1.79 billion and earnings of $1.27 per share them up against some tough comps from last year's first quarter. wynn shares are up more than 6% this year , that outperforms mgm which is negative on the year to date. scott? >> thanks, less than a minute ago. nice and balanced over the last full week. every sector is up. and, this week to date, every sector is up, everything up at least 1% save a couple. nicely balanced. >> the overall market has been good, today more like 50-50 volume was, but a nice recovery. it is a bull market. not fair that we got to the
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point of stretching the downside. it will start on exhibit new upside, more about recovery, earnings are 5%. >> only -- we will pick it up tomorrow tight race for stocks with the nasdaq ending up fractionally lower but the s&p and dow both getting gains with the dow in check after a big drop in results for disney, the action is just getting started. welcome to closing bell overtime. >> earnings are on the way from wynn ea, reddit , and we will bring you the key numbers. >> a rare and inclusive interview with the ceo

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