stories. thank you. in the meantime, we have lost a lot of the gains but the s&p and dow have remained positive. obviously we are watching headlines from israel and headlines from congress. we are watching rates, which continue to move higher. >> and powell and jefferson tomorrow. >> yeah, right here, exclusively on cnbc. central bank still in the driver's seat. >> we will see how the bulls manage the afternoon. let's get to post nine and the half. the bull case for stocks, is it still intact? we will debate that with the market still on edge. joining me for the hour, joe terranova, jenny harrington, and steve weiss. we are holding on to gains and we are positive across the board. joe, we had a turbulent week last week, and are we still vulnerable? that's the question everybody wants to know.

if you look at the reasons last week, maybe pretax day selling contributing, and iran was heavy on the minds going into the weekend, so now that we are done with the weekend, are we still vulnerable as we start and what will be another busy week. >> the easy answer tat is yes, we are still vulnerable for a deeper decline because we don't know yet what the earnings are going to be for technology, and technology in particular for semiconductors and equipment and software, that's going to be the referendum for this current retreat in price if it's going to be a deeper correction or how quick we will be able to recover. on the other side, we are recovering. we are recovering the overall bullishtrend that has been in place now since the fall. i believe there's a lot of conviction behind that and a lot of tailwinds behind that. we will reset and re-establish that once again. i think we have to get past

technology earnings. that really is the critical moment. >> all right. we will have to wait a little bit before we get to the bulk of the earnings, obviously. jpmorgan said, we don't think the rapid repricing in the fed's rate cuts -- is that going to supersede all of the other concerns we have because the numbers are going to be good enough? >> i am not sure. so let's pray to god that numbers are going to be good enough, because what we know is we can't count on is valuation expansion. we are trading at 21 times even after last week, it's about 21 times. the last time the market traded at that was january 2022, and march -- this is really inspiring, march of 2000. 21 times suggests a perfect backdrop, so the only way the market goes higher, in my

opinion, is not for the pe to expand but the earnings to shrink the pe and take the market higher. we are in a no-man's-land right here. by the way, that 21 times is already assuming 12% earnings growth is here. it needs to exceed 12%, i think, if the market is going to go higher than what it got to, which is 5280, and so it's 100% earnings department. >> are we really in no-man's-land, sarat? we are going to reprice the rate cut, and the market is going through that and at some point it's a painful process of trying to do that. rates going up for the right reasons allows you to reprice rate cuts because you say the economy is good enough and earnings are going to be good

enough, and for jpm it's intact. >> it will be if and when the economy slows and the inflation is still higher, then what does the market do with that? the economy is still strong, and the earnings needs to catch up to that, as jenny said. retail sales are so strong and we need consumers and health care companies and all of that to say we have a good earnings report. if you don't and you have a jpmorgan report that was not fabulous, the stocks have gone up. >> weiss, we are past events that we were worried about going into the weekend which made friday a little diceyer than it otherwise would have been, and now the calendar will only get busier. sure, we are wondering if israel

retaliations what the end game of the conflict will be, and in the here and now, are we vulnerable? should we keep our eye on the ball of what got us here in the first place? >> as far as geopolitical issues, they are generally a moment in time and create a buying opportunity, and we saw that somewhat on friday. today, as was pointed out, we had a strong retail sales number, pretty strong, and you are seeing rates ratchet up and going back to where they were before friday, and i don't think we are in that period. all eyes are on the inflation numbers. we will get a real inflation number on the 26th, and that's pce, and that's supposedly the fed's premier gain. we have to get through earnings not just as expected. earnings guidance has come down overall at a 7% increase, and it has ratcheted down.

>> last october, okay, expectations for year over year earnings growth for this quarter was at 9.6%. at the start of the year it went down 7.2%, and that's the number you bring up, and today it's at 2.7. >> 75 or 85% of companies exceeded the guidance, and that's always the case. even the worst economic environment, they set you up to exceed. it's not time to put new money in the market and we are still in the consolidation period, and what jenny talked about, the market is still trading at this multiple which is an accommodated interest rate multiple despite it being restricted, and it has been restricted for a while. if you look at the market with it hitting new highs what we have had as a dialogue, six cuts this year, now up to two, maybe one, maybe none, and now we need a reset.

>> you don't necessarily need to reset your expectations on cuts as long as the economy remains strong and offsets that. >> right. >> what you would need to figure out is if the higher for longer or being tighter starts to have issues where credit tightens. >> correct. that's the perfect point and the only point that matters. as we saw, doesn't matter where rates are, as long as we skate through, and not all consumers, but the bulk are skating through it. >> you never know until it's not -- until the spread starts to widen. >> look at the analogy, and it may not be the perfect one. you can drink a milk shake for four days and say my weight is fine, and if you drink it for four months, your weight will not be fine, and if interest rates stay where they are maybe that will break the economic cycle. i don't know. >> spreads are tight, which has

been giving relief to those worried about what the implications are pushing off rate cuts will be meaning for the market. the bear case and the most significant challenges, jenny, to the bullish outlook, by the way, he is bullish, and if you start to have tighter financial conditions where credit spreads start to widen, and then we are talking about a credit event happening because the fed is going to make a mistake by waiting too long to start cutting rates, and then you would have an issue. >> i like how he goes on to say what if rates are rising for the right reasons? it's all about is it for the right reasons? somebody said we have a complicated stew, and we think about all these pieces, they are all legit and real. we know ultimately, i think at

least, the only two things that matter are earnings and interest rates, and there's a lot of noise there and it's everything adam says, and a divisive election is coming up and the government deficit increasing and tax cuts expiring in two years, and high valuations, and there's so much there, scott, it's very difficult right now to really figure out directionally will drive it, and you don't know what flavor is going to come to the top in the end. >> sarat, the atlanta fed, they just pumped it to 2.8 from 2.4 on the back of the retail number. you are to bump trend growth and you are still looking at the numbers and saying, okay, maybe ultimately that's what is more important than when you are going to get the first rate cut. it feels like the market that needs to keep reminding itself of that? >> i agree. you need to strengthen the economy, and if we went to 2%

and we got inflation and then stagflation issues, and then you have rates propping up the inflation, which is still high. spreads are still tight and you are seeing we can still do this. the multiple might come down, and it doesn't mean the market goes anywhere, but there are some parts of the market that will go. >> if you asked people a year ago will the atlanta fed gdp today be 2.8, and they would say absolutely not, because t-- >> the atlanta fed has been the outlier. >> sure, and even if they are right at 2.4 -- >> here's how i look at the market. i am looking at meta right now

and it's 508, and if you told me will the next 25 points be up or down, i would tell you they would be down. in the markets where the gains have been so high, right, so big, you can't sell it here because if you sell it you are taking the stock down to 50% of what it is, depending on where you got in, and that's the quagmire. >> i am surprised you said it would be down. don't place too many big bets on the fact that a lot of the mega cap tech names are going to go down. >> you are right. you are right. >> 25 points is the percentage move. >> i expect a great quarter to drive it higher, and i am trying to give you an indication of the debate that goes on with a lot of managers. i know the markets are at a level thathas been consolidating. if i told you today that it's going to be all clear in the middle east after this weekend, wouldn't you expect -- the day is not over, but wouldn't you expect it to have at least held

on to the gains -- >> but it's not all clear and there's uncertainty. >> right. my point is in an up market you would say, i got the all clear and earnings are good and they have been adjusted low enough so i can beat them, and you have the perfect setup for the earnings season, but the market is not looking at that. >> joe, jpm last week was disastrous stock reaction to the earnings. >> for a good quarter, i might add. >> goldman had a good quarter, and it's up but not down. many of the other financial institutions are up as well. you bought more goldman -- >> yeah, goldman is back to what goldman sachs does best, and they are back to focusing on investment banking and capital

markets, and they have paired back a lot of the businesses they stepped into in previous years and it was new to them and they did not have the success. you look at the earnings today, and the turn around equity doubles from 2023 and it's up to 14.7%, and that's 7.6%. they beat the estimate on fixed income revenue by $4 billion, and beat the estimate of trading equity at $3.3 bill kion, and ty hit it out of the park and now you can return to understanding that this is the company that we used to know. this is the company that i used to call the world's largest hedge fund and the world's largest successful hedge fund. when you look at the money in the investment banks, this is the number one stock to own. i think it's above jpmorgan. obviously jpmorgan's current

valuation is cheaper than goldman sachs. goldman sachs is the premier franchise to own. if capital markets get better i am 100% confident the structure is in place and the intellectual capital is there, and look what they did in structured lending and mortgages. that's where the opportunity was in the quarter and they crushed it. >> the commentary of other's matches your, and oppenheimer, mike says the beat is the best in breed, and we will expand on which stocks to avoid or enhance. >> it has always been the same old goldman. >> but the stocks sometimes left. >> yeah, and that was going after solomon, and people inside were planting the stories -- >> it took a little turn to the retail, right? >> yeah. but, but --

>> in fairness, they had at least one significant stumble in there trajectory of the business. >> yeah, and they addressed it almost immediately and said this was a mistake. that's risk management in businesses, right? then we hear all the headlines about so-and-so is leaving to go here and so-and-so is leaving-- that's always happening at goldman, and i have senior friends that were at goldman, and you are investing in the culture. the culture breeds those kinds of people. that's why i never have gone away from it, and i always had it. every stock goes up and down. i still think it's best in breed. >> stay on that point, david solomon, and let's be candid there were people questioning david solomon, they were questioning is he the type of leader that lloyd blankfein was.

he is. he's an excellent ceo. >> sarat, you have b of a and morgan stanley, and tomorrow we get them both before the bell. are there redoes here? you could say jpm was good and the stock sold off, and here -- >> i think it's two separate stocks completely. morgan stanley will be interesting, because that's a great tailwind for morgan stanley. unfortunately, the wealth management business is their strongest business which is what the regulators are going for. that's old news. we will see how they handle that on the call and going forward what do they say in terms of the backlog and et cetera, and they don't have the interest that

jpmorgan has but bank of america might have that, and as a whole i think there was nothing bad -- to your point, jpmorgan is not bad and goldman is good, and the large banks should do well. >> it was trading at a record high. >> the large cap banks will do well, and it's the regionals i worry about. >> b of a, you are optimistic about that, too? >> yeah, activity, wealth management, and that will be a good tailwind and good valuation. >> what about schwab? stock hits another 52-week high. >> what i don't like about goldman is it's about the culture and story, and what i

love about schwab, it's all about the numbers. >> no -- >> they are not as good as schwab's -- >> i knew this was going to happen. i will let you guys go because i want to hear this. >> the numbers ofschwab are more remarkable, and to me it is a more compelling and interesting story, but as with everything, the big shiny stocks get all the attention, the shiny leaders get all the attention, and then this one traded from a peak of 90 to the low 50s, high 40s, and why? because there was a selloff from the silicon valley bank, and if you tuned out the noise of the shiny ceo, this is a much better investment to have made in financial services and going forward, it still is. less headline risk and less overall market risk to schwab. they have 9$9.1 trillion in

client assets, and their growth rates are supposed to be up -- >> where are you getting that? >> i don't have instant recall, and it's not off the top of my head. >> that was a compliment. >> yeah, it was. you have earnings that are supposed to grow by 22% the year after, and from an environmental -- i don't mean environment but from a market environment perspective, but you don't need to worry about investment banking off a cliff or personalities or "new york times" stories about how there's no female leaders, and if anybody wants my opinion on why there's not, because i have strong opinions -- >> you think? >> yeah, and it goes back 20 years. >> we are talking about apples

and oranges businesses. >> how about financial services, and just like the mega cap tech, goldman takes too much air up in the room. this is a numbers story incredibly compelling and less sensitive and headline risk. >> why can't i own both? >> you can, but i like this one better. i know you guys love goldman, but i love numbers -- >> i don't have to love goldman. like, i don't have -- >> oh, man, you are poetic about the culture and leadership. >> what i found interesting -- >> it worked well for jenny, too. her stock is up more than 40% over the last year. >> unlike jenny i don't have to malign to prove -- >> sorry. i am not maligning but i am making a point that numbers are more important than stories. >> the mna cycle is so much

greater with gold miman to your point, i have the upside of the cycle coming back. >> how much is schwab down from february of '22? how much is goldman down off of its high, minimum? >> the mediator? >> yeah. that's your new name. the judge has sent this into mediation. >> if you think schwab had a huge issue with the balance sheet, and if you took the risk with jennyd and you bought it, you got a huge return and now it's a very different business, and it's totally good. what did goldman do? they got out of the business, and it's two complete businesses, and you can own them separate lee and the merger of the two would be good, but both good companies. >> you are marking a moment of

time of when jenny bought it. congratulations. great buy. let's take the other side of that. you own the stock from the first quarter of 2022, and you absorbed a significant decline, and what do you do with the stock? off the top of my head, it's 20 to 25% below where it was in the first quarter of 2022. >> i appreciate you backing me up. 19 times, when you have high 20% earnings growth ahead, i think that's really compelling. >> you want to talk about some of the other stocks you made, the moves for your clients? >> sure. >> sl green and b & g foods -- >> all of our accounts are separately managed, and there's always stocks up too much. so when a newport foal yo comes

in, i think sl green had a huge run, and i don't want to buy that today, and then you pick off the positions that are losers and disproportional losers because they have athing going on. >> let's take a quick break. when we come back, we will hit committee stocks on the move today including salesforce. it's the worst performer in the s&p 500 right now. we have trades on cisco and intel and more. back in two minutes.

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this is not my personal view of the ceo, and the investor community is saying let's not do this again. we stopped with the deals. we paused the deals and folded the mna unit and said last year, no more large transactions. here we go. this could be a good deal, by the way, because you are talking about data and analytics, and that could be additive to the business model for salesforce. there's just angst that here we go, we will engage in what salesforce was previously, which was a serial acquirer. >> maybe it's the only way they can grow? >> we hoped artificial intelligence was a way they could grow, and there was clear evidence artificial intelligence was a way for them to grow. we will see how it grows.

>> cisco, price target from 60 to 55. jenny, you own it, right? >> yeah, the upgrade focuses on the long-term story. you see customers trying to control budgets and cut costs and they are backing off, and in the long-term you can't have an ai boom without significant investment in networking equipment and security equipment, and cisco is coming out with ai-specific products. if you focus on the long-term, this is where you are at, but on the short-term, not looking great. you need to be there early. i think long-term, it would be in our portfolio forever. >> and then constellation, they raised their full year for '25 estimates, too. >> though grew their market

share with a bunch of other beers, so i like the company. it's well-run. you are getting higher growth than normally for other staple companies. >> and coupang, joe? >> the ability here is for the memberships, and the prices -- we will see if they are able to achieve pricing power if the consumer base will go for that. they are charging less than amazon prime for one-day deliveries and streaming. they charge less there as well. >> jenny, intel, citi, neutral and 40 bucks is the price target. >> right. last week john ford interviewed pat gillsinger, and she said if

you want a pop in the portfolio in the next two weeks, we're not in, but i don't want you, and we are committed to the people to rebuild -- that's what we were talking about last week. what i am so lit up about, two weeks they came out and broke up revenue reporting and nothing changed the aggregate, and everything is the same still. here's what you got, in 2024, earnings are supposed to grow by 28%. those numbers are compelling. people freaked out and they said the foundry business is losing money. it's just a long-term story. like cisco, you need to be in this for the long-term. if everybody thought it was $44 two weeks ago, nothing has

changed and they should be $44 now. >> it's down 28% to date? >> yeah, and why were people paying $22 -- the aggregate is still the same. >> well, first of all, kudos to him for reading that book "ceos that are failing and have really bad stock prices." this is the quote you have to send out to potential investors, don't look at our stock going up soon but if you look 25 years from now, this will be higher, and kudos for him because he got people to buy it. and undoubtedly, the foundry will pick up business, okay, and that's why i bought it. they had a lock on the s & l, their new product. but that's not enough.

if you go back to everything gelsinger promised, you wouldn't see anything he said come to fruition. the semiconductor business is too big, and it will overshadow the management incompetent sees. >> i am happy to answer the question if you will let me. i would rather own a company consistently that has put up that kind of growth in revenues and has good management and consistently has been able to execute. >> that's honestly a difference

in our investing strategies where i love things like this, where everybody is throwing them out. >> buy uber. >> yeah, i bought uber at $22, and why do you trim it? it's tprudent. >> how about rollins, joe? price target is 49 bucks. >> well, q1 is seasonally a weak -- >> have a drink of water. >> i'm good. thank you, though. >> i would usually -- >> are you going to let me finish? i don't need the drink. and q2 will generally be stronger and pesticides return once again. i wouldn't walk away from the position. strong balance street. the expectation will be that q2

will be a better quarter. without the water, i was fine. >> you want the water now? >> no. the judge presiding over trump's trial just ruled the prosecution cannot play the "access hollywood" tape. protesters brought traffic to a standstill protesting the war in gaza in the bay. france prepared alternatives for the summer olympics opening ceremony over security concerns. in light of the conflict in the middle east and ukraine as well as threats of terrorists attacks, organizers are considering options to restrict

the ceremony or move it to a stadium should that become necessary. of course, scott, the hope is that it comes off as planned. contessa, thank you. how rising tensions in the middle east are impacting the commodity trade today. bob joins us next on eft edge. but no one loves logistics as much as they do. you need tamra, izzy, and emma. they need a retirement plan. work with principal so we can help you with a retirement and benefits plan that's right for your team. let our expertise round out yours.

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we're back on the "halftime" report. let's get to bob. what if anything might do well in such an uncertain environment? let's talk about the re-flation trade. i have known you for years. you have a huge suite for gold and other commodities. global manufacturing is ticking higher and that's driving that reflation trade. explain that? >> headlines are missing the story in the commodities, bob. what happened in the first quarter is really important, which is that global pmi, which is my measure of the global economy went into expansion phase in the first quarter, meaning over 50 is the number.

not only that, that's the first time it has been in expansion since 2002, so for the -- '22, so the last two years. that's combined with china manufacturing pmi, and that's a indicator that is positive in march. >> oil, explain what is going on? >> copper, oil, you know, the whole metals and energy complex, that's what i mean by the commodities. there are a lot of headlines out of the middle east and that's driving the prices short-term and that's hard as an investor. what we are saying is commodities are interesting for investors, and not going crazy. >> the manufacturing data is what is investable here. economic trends, macro economic trends, and even if they are cyclical, and we are in a growth trend. >> you have the gold miners, and

there's a different dynamic driving gold this year. explain? >> it's different from commodities. i call it the 2025 fiscal reckoning in the united states. we are running a huge budget deficit and that's what is driving inflation and the economic growth as well as monetary policy. i think that gold is just going vertical, reflecting investor concerns about '25. >> your semiconductor, etf, you know this, folks, you have seen big inflows and it has been amazing and now it's moving sideways and nvidia is moving sideways. is this a pause or -- >> i think it's a pause. i don't think the market can perform without tech, but i think the stocks are ahead of themselves but it's hard to say sell, because there are more permanent growers than cyclical. >> we are going to talk about this, no inflows, simi

conductors, and i will have more on the whole reflation trade and the impact on stocks and that's coming up on "eft edge" coming up at 1:00 p.m. eastern time. scott, back to you. >> bob, appreciate that very much. got a big week of earnings ahead. we have the set upcoming up next. stevens dribbles up the court... he stops!... for the championship! [crowds cheering] nice shot, marcus! sweet, turn simulation off. tssk, tssk, not so fast. what, why? did you forget marcus? forget what? your chem exam? uggh? flashcard time! the atomic weight of boron. the future isn't scary, not investing in it is. 100 innovative companies, one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges expenses and more

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that's what this is going to be for earnings this week. united health, the stock has not been good. >> i think two things. we have to figure out what they are going to say about their cyber security issues, because they had a big hack. the second is medicare advantage. it hurt cvs when it came out. >> the latter is more important than the hack issue, obviously. >> both are. they are lending money to a lot of their customers as well, and are they over that or is that overhang still there? >> stock is down 15%. j&j? >> it's a defensive play, and i like the story. >> what about health care more broadly? if you have exposure to united and johnson & johnson, and health care is up but it's

nowhere near one of the better performers? >> you went into it thinking more defensively, and i do think that it's a secular sector. >> united airlines, joe? >> this will be a loss, and this is not delta, you know. technically delta looks a lot better than ual does, and you have negative momentum in ual and it's the 737 max and the safety restrictions surrounding it, and it's limiting the supply and you are seeing challenges for the companies. this is in a more perilous position than delta. >> what about the interactive

brokers? stocks have been great? >> yeah, personally i sold out of the position way too soon. this is a company that is crushing it. i expect a very strong quarter from interactive brokers. i will see your charles schwab and raise you on interactive brokers. >> can i own all three? >> there you go. i like that. >> good point. >> got to use that ♪. engineered to minimize noise. and built for adventure. which can also be your own quiet cabin in the woods. the fully electric q8 e-tron. an electric vehicle that recharges you.

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i like how you write this today, too, that the market is encountering its second act problem. explain. >> so the first part of this year, the first act. we sort of established the stakes and the characters and everything looked like it was pretty neat and tiedy and then you get to this point where you have to escalate the conflict in the story and really figure out how you're going to bridge to the resolution. i think that's where we are. obviously, we are in a world that now has some tradeoffs between growth and inflation and fed policy and rates and all the rest of it, and i think just working through that and looking tactically at how the market is reckoning with that, the s&p if we go down another half a percent you're essentially where you were february 22nd which is the nvidia pop when it was up 3% on nvidia earnings and you're checking back and saying, okay, what about the earnings picture? does that still hold up even if yields are here and the final point about the treasurys which is we have been above current levels 6% on the ten-year for

only one month this entire cycle and that was october of last year and obviously, created a problem at 5%, but this s&p traded in the month of october last year between 2100 and 4400. in other words, the levels don't match up and it's just about when it moves too fast and the equity strength that we have and that's why over time you can make your peace with higher yield levels. >> a good look at the market. i'll see you on the closing bell. mike santoli. up next, two big winners and two big losers in today's session.

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ the dow's barely holding on to gain, but we do want to highlight some winners and losers. on core wire, one of the day's biggest winners. that along with sentene and tesla, weiss, you're still short that name. they'll lay off more than 10% of their global workforce. >> i pressed short this morning down five bucks or whatever it was. this is 90 times earnings for a company that is declining on every measure you could meet. so why on 90 times at 7 times earnings it makes no sense.

this is not a growth company anymore. >> don't look now, but boeing is on a historic losing streak. if it's down today and it's lower and that would be 11 in a row and that is the longest losing streak since november 2018. we'll flag that as we keta another break and we'll come back with finals next.

we'll take you through the final hour on closing bell with dan greenhouse, lauren goodman and aaron brown with the playbook there and tony on the latest on the techtrade. let's do final trades right now. jenny harrington, will you starts off, please? >> woo hoo. shell is the best oil manage tore take over the boom over the next decades. nine times earnings, 4% dividend yield. >> steve weiss? >> i'm saying short cues as a hedge. vix has moved in the last few weeks and it's prudent to hedge out your portfolio if you're able to.

>> sarat sethi. >> copper demand keeps going up and supply is limited and i think you have a long way to go. >> freeport getting a lot of love on the desk, lately. >> joe t., finally. freeport was my first choice and sarat took my final trade. >> good share. >> absolutely. steel dynamics and a good spot to buy it. >> i'll see you at the bell. "the exchange" is now. welcome to "the exchange." i'm jon fortt for kelly evans and here's what's a good. e con for investors to navigate and we'll tell you what it is and the names they're buying. plus the setup for big tech into earnings. we'll look at whether the recent pullback represents a buying opportunity and as israel weighs its response to the iran's unprecedented attack we'll look into