it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. it's 10:00 a.m. in london. i'm frank holland and here is your "five@5." wall street has the nasdaq back at the all-time highs, but futures are fighting for gains at the open. a big part of the rebound tied to apple with the best day in more than a year. today is all about the kickoff to the first quarter earnings and the big banks. we have the numbers you need to know and the one name reeling from regulatory pressure. and if the 2% mandate makes

sense in the post-mpandemic world. it's friday, april 12th, 2024. you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc. good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm coming to you live from cnbc london. thank you for being with us. let's get you ready for the trading day ahead. the check of the u.s. stock futures after the whip saw stocks yesterday with the day in the green after spending the day red. the dow would open 60 points higher. nasdaq in the red. remember, it closed at the record high yesterday. the rebound can be tied to tech and apple. shares are coming off a 4% gain and the best day since may of 2023. it is not just apple.

we are watching amazon. stock trading at the all-time high since 2021. sharp move higher in treasury yields is doing little to dent the appetite for stocks. take a look. the dollar index at the highest level since november. trading in parity with the euro. we are watching oil after the report from the iea showing the f first quarter demand is expected to fall 7% from the previous forecast from the agency. we are still seeing oil prices moving higher. they flagged oil supply security as one issue that investors need to watch. let's see how europe is shaping up with silvia amaro with more. happy friday, frank. it seems to be happy day for equity markets here in europe. look at it. they are all in the green. all of the major boards in europe are trading positively.

i'll highlight the ftse 100. crossing above the 8,000 mark. currently up by 1.2%. we got data from the uk showing the economy expanded by 0.1% in february. you might think that doesn't sound like much, but the dataing suggests we might be on track to see an end to the technical recession that the uk posted at the end of 2023. now today is a moment for investors to digest what they heard from the ecb yesterday. the central bank kept the door open to cutting rates in june. i want to take you to the sector breakdown as well. at the top, we are seeing basic resources up by 2.7%. there is a lot of dynamics with the gold price and mining stocks pushing this sector higher. utilities up 2%. oil and gas also similar moves

with oil prices moving higher. currently brent is trading above the $90 a barrel mark. that is contributing to the upside in the sector. also, let's not forget, frank, we are seeing a lot of positive momentum in tech stocks today off the back of the rally we saw stateside yesterday. >> silvia, thank you. a programming note. you and i will anchor "street signs" on monday. and we have latest blow to the world's second largest economy. we have eunice yoon with more on the data just released. >> reporter: thank you, frank. as you said, the march export numbers looked very bad. people were sexpecting a fall. not this much. march exports dropped 7.5% from a year ago versus the estimate of 2.3%.

this compared to the january and february period which saw a rise of 7.1%. the imports for march also dropped by 1.9%. again, a surprise where people were expecting to see a rise of 1.4%. now, the reason for this is threefold. people are talking this is coming off a high base last year. chinese goods have seen weaker demand in markets such as europe. in addition to that, the lower prices for chinese goods really hurt the value. frank. >> eunice, obviously these export numbers are surprising falling deeper than expected. what are you hearing when it comes to stimulus measures in china? is this a catalyst for deeper stimulus measures? >> reporter: that's what a lot of people are hoping to see. they are hoping to see greater

stimulus on the part of the government for consumption. what is also interesting about the numbers is they really undermine what appears to be the government's big push to rely more heavily on trade and manufacturing rather than making major changes in terms of consumption or having to deal with the property sector. as we have been talking about the overcapacity issue has been sensitive here. in the past couple days, state media has been running a narrative talking about how washington is over-hyping the issue and overcapacity is not what the whole push to sell things overseas is all about. >> eunice yoon live in beijing. thank you. let's talk more about the global markets. joining me here in the studio is janet mui. janet, great to see you in

person. >> great to see you, frank. >> are you surprised by what we saw yesterday? the nasdaq hitting the record close and now it looks like the rate cuts are pushed further back. ubs out with a note saying over 80% chance we won't see the first rate cut until september. >> i don't think it is all too surprising. we have seen that play out in the first quarter. it just keeps going up and the equity markets keep rallying. markets are focused on the u.s. market being resilient. i think i would prefer no recession. i think that is actually what the data is telling us now. the u.s. economy can withstand high interest rates. that is why in the face of high yields, equity markets are okay. >> you think the markets are okay. i want to show the week-to-date

magnificent seven and equal weights. the magnificent seven far out performing the other two indices. what does that tell us? does that give us insight about the direction of the investment going forward? >> there is evidence of the broader equity market going forward. that is primarily based on the resilient story. that could continue, but i do think the magnificent seven will still be relevant and still deliver a big chunk of the earnings. i think that's primarily because of the a.i. theme and the ongoing technology innovation. >> talk to me about the a.i. theme. a.i. is supposed to increase productivity. we're continuing to see earnings expectations decline from the start of the year. if a.i. is going to be a powerful force in the market fueling the magnificent seven stocks, why are earnings expectations falling? >> i think earnings expectations have been robust.

a little bit of slowdown is not too problematic. if the expectations came down a little bit, and the data is better than expected, that will expect the rally to carry on. this is not just a quarter on quarter theme. it is a multi-year theme with hardware and software upgrades. there are huge opportunities. >> let's talk about oil. it was range bound for a bit. now we're seeing it moving to the upside after reports saying demand will fall 7 p%. that is a concern over supply security. how do you see that impacting the market going forward? >> i think oil prices are quite hard to predict. i think we have supply deficit. that is what the iea is forecasting for 2024. the geopolitical tension is ongoing in the background.

that is why we have a lot of energy trade which is a basket of energy majors. the theme is primarily based on the energy companies are improving the capital discipline and shareholder return. it is looking as a hedge. >> janet mui, thank you very much. for more on what is driving the markets, head to cnbc pro at cnbc.com/pro for insights and and analysis. time for the latest corporate stories of the day with bertha coombs. >> good morning, frank. shares of morgan stanley set to withstand the 5% loss after the bank is investigated by u.s. regulators, including the s.e.c., office of the c comptroller of the currency and treasury. according to reports, regulators are looking into whether the bank had adequately investigated the identities of clients and

sources the wealth. globe life is responding to a new short sell the report from fuzzy panda research with fraud at the life insurance giant. globe life said the research mischaracterizes facts and uses unsubstantiated claims. shares are higher in the pre-market after falling sharply in the trade yesterday. finally, cathie wood's ark investment holds a stake in a.i. darling openai. in an email to clients, ark said the venture fund invests in openai. the $54 million ark fund was launched in september of 2022 and invests in public and private companies like spacex and epic games and recently the

reddit ipo. >> bertha, thank you. more to come here on "worldwide exchange," including the one word that voinvestors nd to know today and the one stock that can't seem to hold a charge. and we layout what to watch ahead and the banks for later today. and we ask whether the fed's 2% mandate makes sense in a post-pandemic world. we have a very busy hour still ahd enwodwe chgeeawh "rlidexan" returns. stay with us.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." a market flash on intel and amd. china is looking to phase out foreign processors by 2027. a move would hit both companies and intel and amd shares are moving lower. both down 1.5% in the pre-market. we will continue to watch the story throughout the morning. time for the big money movers. rivian is searching for direction after sinking to a record low with yesterday's losses. this move coming as the ev price wars are heating up for the f-150 electric pickup trucks by ford. rivian is down .50% in the pre-market. and trump media is extending

the slide after the company debuted at the end of march, but shares have fallen 35% since then. shares of lockheed martin winning a contract worth $4 billion. the funding is meant to develop capabilities for the missile core command system. the shares are higher right now. first quarter earnings season is officially here. big banks like wells fargo and citi and blackrock are kicking off before the opening bell today. arabile gumede is joining me here in london with the key financials this season. arabile. >> a modest start is what you anticipate particularly for the remainder of the year. you look at the first quarter and 5% is what you get. we are gearing up for the first quarter earnings season. analysts are optimistic than they were heading into last year for the full-year earnings per

share across the s&p 500. we are expecting that number to be 9.8%. that is double the 4.1% that we were seeing as we entered 2023 according to lseg data. earnings as well as revenue growth is expected to be positive in the first quarter as well. analysts think we will see the weakest quarter of 2024 progressively getting higher. it all kicks off with the biggest banking names on wall street. citi will release the numbers as well as wells fargo and jpmorgan chase before getting results from goldman sachs and morgan stanley with bank of america on tuesday. all three of the major banks reporting today are expected to see an earnings slide. jpmorgan chase earnings per share are seen falling 4% on that one. larger declines are expected out of citi at 34% down and wells fargo will fall 10% off the

trading weakness with increased loan provisions with interest rates remaining higher. there is a source of optimism which could come from net interest income. we are expecting a mixed picture from the first quarter from the lenders reporting today. all eyes will be on the guidance with falling expectations for fed rate cuts potentially boosting outlook for the year. frank. >> arabile, thank you. let's bring in nancy, the senior portfolio manager, at essex portfolio. nancy, i'll pick up where arabile left off. net interest income. what are your expectations for the quarter and guidance? >> the net interest income line is one watched closely not only for jpmorgan chase, but all the banks starting to report. we think that things look

positive going forward compared to where the estimates are right now. we know rates have gone up. we know the fed is much less likely to cut in june. we actually are in the camp that thinks we're likely to get one cut this year. probably not until later in the year. that spread they can earn should be better than what's expected. we think this quarter will come in modestly better than expected. whethe when there is an opportunity for the next two quarters or the number to shrink for the estimates to be revised upwards. >> that talk about no cuts seems to be growing. neel kashkari fueled speculation that there may not be a cut ouat all this year. what does this mean for the banks and you remember the svb collapse. just this week, we have seen rates on the ten-year yield spike 20 basis points. >> we think the higher for

longer in and of itself is a scenario that is manageable not only for the banks, but for the economy as a whole. it is, as we talked about, is positive from the net interest income point of view. it allows the banks to manage the spread they can earn. the spike -- >> what about commercial real estate? that is a different scenario. >> that is. one of the reasons why we like the big banks rather than the regional banks is that commercial real estate exposure. there is protection from the big banks. it say is a smaller part of the business. i know you read the article about st. louis and other cities in the midwest struggling like that. we need to be careful. we are optimistic that the spikes that we see in interest rates will be more modest. the fed is certainly paying attention to the pace of declines in the book of business. they are talking about slowing

that rate and letting those mature so we don't get a spike from the short funding gap. >> okay. what about several other factors that are a big influence on the banks? one is the ipo market. the other is consumer deposit. is there a deposit risk with the money coming off the sidelines? there is still a lot of money in the money markets. >> there is. we do think that can be a risk, particularly for the banks dependent on the consumer deposits. that is part of our caution on the regional banks. we think it is likely that money stays in money markets for longer. it is compel bling if you earn or more in the money market accounts. the other question on the -- what was the other question? >> it was on the ipo market. we're almost out of time. i want to ask one other quick question before you get to the ipo. very briefly, your thoughts on

morgan stanley and do you have a top pick in the banking sector ahead of earnings season? >> we don't have strong opinions on morgan stanley. we are partial to evercore as they are gaining a lot of share in the investment banking side. we are seeing an increase in deal activity overall. we are seeing an increase in m&a activity and increase in the refinancing going on. we are cautiously optimistic on the ipo market. we have seen a couple of good ipos in the first quarter. we think there is more to come. certainly, what is going on with a.i. and the new business formation means we could be setting a stage for a strong ipo market some time in the future. >> nancy prial, thank you very much. have a great day. >> thank you. >> catch the interviews on the banks today. larry fink will join "squawk on

the street." that is at 9:00 a.m. and the cfo of wells fargo joins "money movers" this morning. ahead here on "worldwide exchange," the morning call sheet and the fresh call for novo nordisk finding a fresh appetite for that stock. we'll be right back.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." it's time for the money movers. novo nordisk is expanding manufacturing which will help with supply constrain. ubs upgrading docusign. the company moved past covid h headwinds. shares up 1%. raymond james upgrading gitlab. it favors software stocks. shares up 1.5%. one more for you. citi is cutting tesla to $180. citi citing product age and saturation and seeing more down side potential ahead. shares down more than 1%.

let's colheck on the headlis with nbc's frances rivera in new york. >> good morning, frank. we begin with the latest out of the middle east. american government workers based in israel have been ordered not to travel outside major cities as the tension was iran and israel and u.s. are the highest since 1979. millions of israelis are on edge that iran may be planning a significant attack in retaliation over the consulate building attack. tehran will respond in a way to avoid major escalation. house speaker mike johnson is traveling to mar-a-lago to deliver remarks on election i integrity alongside former president trump. speaker johnson gave few details

when pressed by nbc news this week, but a source in his office said the topics of discussion will be non-citizens voting. and o.j. simpson has died. ron goldman called simpson's death no great loss to the world. it is a further reminder of ron being gone. simpson was acquitted of the murders of goldman and nicole simpson brown. simpson was 76. you are up to date for friday's headlines. frank, back to you. >> frances, thank you. have a great weekend. coming up, apple doubling down on the house chips, but do not expect aouscen tchre macbook any time soon. more "worldwide exchange" coming

up after this break.

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what a non-2% target could mean for the markets and economy. golf's most iconic event is set to resume today as it sits at a crossroad with big money at stea stake with the action at augusta. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland coming to you from cnbc london. we pick up the half hour check with the stock futures after a whipsaw section for stocks. the nasdaq and s&p closed in the green after spending the day in the red. the dow off the highs of earlier. it looks to open up 35 points higher right now. you see the nasdaq under pressure. we will get to that in a second. the big rebound can easily be tied to tech and apple. shares coming off a 4% gain.

the best day since may of 2023. it is not just apple, but another mag seven member, amazon. it is trading at an all-time high since 2021. weakness is tied to chips with the nasdaq and intel and amd are among the biggest lagglaggards. china is looking to phase out tech by those who companies by 2030. both are down 2% right now. intel and amd dragging down chip etfs, including the ishares ticker smx and smh. we are watching a first quarter report demand falling 7% from the previous forecast. we have seen oil take a move to the upside. that could be tied to the fact that the report flagged issues

with oil supply security citing attacks on russian refineries as one of the issues they are looking at right now. wti benchmark over 1%. turning attention to the picture with inflation. the march ppi data showing the figure climbed 2% from a year ago. it is below expectations, but seeing the biggest gains in a year. stripping out food and oil, it is showing an increase from february. speaking on the back of the hotter than expected report, susan collins is the latest central bank chief to downplay the start of rate cuts. >> i do expect that it will be appropriate to begin lowering the federal funds rate, but later this year. however n addition to that optimism, i'm realistic about the risks and the uncertainties which remain elevated. recent data suggests it may take more time than i had previously

thought to gain greater confidence in inflation's downward trajectory before beginning to ease. >> the fed's 2% inflation target continues to remain elusive, but raises the question if the mandate is still a realistic goal. if not, how do we navigate a non-2% inflation world? we havehave daniel morris with as well as dana peterson. good morning. dana, i'll start with you. is 2% inflation post pandemic with all of the changes we have seen in the world a realistic target for the fed? >> i think it is. certainly 2% has been the sweet spot for the economy humming along. if the fed changes the mandate in the middle of the game, it would lose credibility. if the fed maintains a 2% inflation target, it means interest rates will be higher going forward than what we saw

during the period between the great financial crisis and the pandemic. >> credibility. we heard a couple of of speaker mention that. how do you play this fed that is trying to remain credible, but insist we get down to 2%. mega cap tech this week, specifically the magnificent seven, out performing the s&p and equal weight. do investors continue to go to big tech for safety? >> it is interesting that big tech is an asset in people's minds. if you think about the landscape, even higher for longer, tech and valuations for growth is sensitive to what you have with policy rates. whatever we are, we should be within that range. higher for longer. one cut. two cuts. we are not too far off. the valuation impact is minimal. that means we focus on earnings.

we think that is still positive. >> dana, i want to come back over to you. let's talk about the federal funds rate. you have a forecast that is interesting. for the audience, the funds rate dictates the cost of money in the u.s. according to your research, from the great recession to the pandemic, the average funds rate of 1.5% and your forecast is it will go down to 2.5% to 3.5%. right now it is at 5.5%. you seem to have a very optimistic outlook of the federal funds rate. >> we are not going to get there overnight. it will take a few years to get there. even still, between 2.5% and 3.5%, that is higher than the 1.5% average during the period before the pandemic. certainly, that means the fed is going to see it higher. there are pressures that are structural that the fed has to

lean against. labor shortages and geopolitics impacting food and energy. insurance companies raising the cost of insurance for cars and ho homes. we don't know when that will end. that suggests that over the longer term, we will have to see rates higher than what we are used to here. >> dana, you named all of the reasons we are not getting back there. what gets us there? insurance prices are not going down and labor market is hot. the u.s. productivity and growth is churning on. how do we get down to the rate? how do we get to the point where the fed is comfortable enough to cut? >> the good news is that shelter costs, which are a big chunk of the cpi and pce deflator, the latter of which the fed uses to conduct monetary policy is slowing on the year-on-year basis. it will help us get to 2%.

how do we know that? if you look at the case shiller home price index and reading from rents, they show sehelter costs are continuing to slow. it will take the rest of the year. that will get us back to 2%. >> are you putting a lot on shelter. can daniel, the last word. i had a guest here earlier saying right now is the time to put money in tips. where would you suggest people put their money to survive the storm until we get to the 2% inflation or will we ever get there? >> on the fixed income side, we share the view of over weight and long duration tips in the u.s. we see that at high levels historically. on the equity front, we are optimistic to china. that has been a tough call. we think the worst is past us. we know the recent data is not fantastic. the bleeding seems to have

stopped. we are not going down, but performing in line with the global equities. if you want to call it the china put, with the bad chinese data, it increases the likelihood the government does more. >> they believe they could pass along price increases with inflation. do you agree or disagree? >> you wonder if people are willing after coming out of lockdown to keep higher prices is more of a risk. >> bullish on bigmorris, thank . dana peterson, thank you. coming up on "worldwide exchange," the action at gaugusa resumes. the big money tied to the big game and the issues hanging over thmaere sts. dom chu is coming up with that. stay with us.

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♪♪ ♪♪ welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for the global briefing. japan's five-year note rising. the boj ended the last negative interest rate last month as the attention touurns to the weaker yen. uk gdp pricing .1% in february after technical recession last year. as growth makes the return and inflation shows signs of abating, traders are lowering

the rate epec expectations this. and china trade data disappoints with imports contr contr contr contracting 2%. turning attention now to the world of sports. day two of the masters is getting under way in a few hours. everyone from the golfers and business world is trying to make green from the play on the greens. right here with us is the number one golfer at cnbc is dom chu with the money at the masters. >> day one was marked by bad weather with rain delayed the start and then suspended due to

darkness. tiger woods is currently in 17th place through the first 13 holes. he has to finish up the rest of the day today. that first round will resume this morning at 7:50 a.m. eastern time. the second round for those who finished yesterday, 8:00 a.m. the masters is the biggest sports money maker out there. to give you the idea, you look at the data around the estimates with the impact of the masters. economic impact has been estimated as $120 million annually from what is happening with the masters because of one event. according to the mastercard institute, spending on their card network was ups 85% in one day in that area. that is how much of a spike it causes. $18 million in prize money.

you have to play well to make the money. merchandise sales is estimated at $70 million per week by those who track it. private jets, according to data from flight aware, 1,500 private jets will go in and out of the augusta area this week. as for the current state of golf, it is on the upswing driven by the pandemic. up until now because the social distancing aspect. data from nbc sports which houses the tee time platform and the golf now platform tracks bookings for tee times. they are up 15% year over year through the month of march as the pandemic tailwinds start to normalize. data from the national golf foundation, 15% increase in the number of female golfers out there. a lot more participation and this is obviously a very important week for all those golf fans and golf economy.

>> speaking of the golf economy, big money event and there is a tug-of-war with liv and the pga. where does that stand? >> it stands where it stood about a week or two weeks or three months ago. there is not a lot of activity now. there was an expectation at the end of last year that we could see the move toward some construct of a deal in the early part of the year. that did not happen. then there was a push back and folks thought it would happen as we approached the masters. we have not seecn a deal arise yet. one of the telling things is rory mcilroy who talked about the idea that the current state of golf in professional sports is unsustainable given the dynamic we have seen with liv and pga tour. there's definitely a lot of activity that's anticipated to happen. whether or not it happens in the next couple weeks or months remains to be seen.

>> all right. dom, i hope i didn't blow your cover when i called you the number one golfer at cnbc. i hope i didn't blow your cover. >> frank, one of the things that you learn in golf is nobody cares what you shot. >> dom chu, thank you. enjoy the masters. ahead, the one word that every investor needs to know today, plus what our next guest says the bulls may be down, but not out after the turbulent inflation fueled week. join the change makers event in new york city next week. guests are gina raimondo and actress drew barrymore. to learn more, scan the qr code on the screen or go to cnbc.com/changemakers. we are back in just a moment.

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welcome back. time for the "wex wrap-up." the wall street journal reporting china directing the telecom carriers to phase out foreign processors by 2030. and apple is looking to focus on m-4 chips. it has been slowing with struggling computer sales.

and sam bankman-fried is looking to appeal his sentence. he will have to petition the supreme court to take the case. and federal regulators are investigating morgan stanley of laundering money with clients. and fuzzy panda allegations of the insurance fraud calling the report misleading. globe life is looking at a short position. and cathie wood's ark fund is exploding in openai stock. here is what to watch today. bank earnings in focus. citi and jpmorgan chase and state street are set to report

today and voting on the nippon steel with the u.s. steel deal today. two high profile interviews on cnbc today. larry fink will join "squawk on the street" at 9:00 a.m. on the back of the firm's earnings. at 10:30 a.m., the sitdown with nike ceo john donahoe. markets are mixed after the positive session with the nasdaq coming off the fresh close. joining me now is victoria greene. she is a cnbc contributor. good morning from london. i'll jump into it. an interesting look with the futures right now. how do you see today shaping up? what is the word of the day? >> i'm taking a page out of the playbook of aaron rodgers.

r-e-l-a-x. relax. he started 1-2 in 2014, everybody was nervous. if you look at this, they are expecting earnings growth with the last two weeks being tough. we are down less than 2% from the highs. down 1.05% here in april. not amazing. we knew q2 would be rocky. i think people need to step back. the bull market is in tact. a speed bump. not a derailment in the last two weeks. >> you are in the camp where we will get two rate cuts this year. how does that impact your view of the markets and so-called broadening out? we saw the magnificent seven out perform everybody else. do you believe we will see a broadening out of the markets with fewer rate cuts? ubs saying 80% chance we don't

get one cut until september. >> when i look at it, broadening is great. it is the strength of the rally. we are certainly getting more participants. value and quality are coming. there is tfatigue in the magnificent seven. you chose the top four. you keep the core tech. industrials and energy and i like the commodity plays. the one area i'm concerned about is small caps. they will bear the brunt of higher for longer. i love the quality cash flow in the large cap space. >> let's get to the pick. your pick is the insurance space with progressive. you are not concerned about severe weather? the hurricane forecast came out this week. progressive shares taking a very sharp decline. forecast is active.

23 storms. not worried about that severe weather risk and how it impacts progressive? >> no. it is a risk. there is always a risk with insurance companies with a bad season. they had a bad march last year. that is why comps are so good. loss ratio is going to be 70%. i think they are well positioned. they do a good job pricing policies and balancing risks in regions. there is risk on weather. earthquakes in new york. fires in california. hurricanes in the gulf coast. progressive is well run. >> okay. we have to leave it there. great to see you. have a great weekend. "squawk box" is coming up next. aw d questi . anything left...ere goig —left over? —yeah. oh, absolutely. (inner monologue) my kids don't know what they want. you know who knows what she wants? me! i want a massage, in amalfi, from someone named giancarlo. and i didn't live in that shoebox for years. not just— with empower, we get all of our financial questions answered.

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good morning. the nasdaq surging to an all-time high with the magnificent seven leading the way. we have stocks to watch that you need to watch this a.m. earnings on the agenda. the nation's financial giant starting to report. we will breakdown numbers as soon as they are released. harvard is the latest ivy league school to bring back standardized test requirements. the implications for dei on

campus and perhaps in the world of corporate corner offices and well. it is friday, april 12th, 2024. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning. it's friday. here we go. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin. joe is out today. let's see how things are shaping up on this friday morning. after a wild ride this week, what we have seen with equities and treasuries, you are looking at a flat open this morning for the dow and s&p. dow is up 5 points. s&p is down 10 points. the nasdaq is off a little