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tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  April 11, 2024 5:00am-6:00am EDT

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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. it's 10:00 a.m. here in london. i'm frank hollnad and here is your "five@5." wednesday whiplash after the wednesday cpi report. why the headline is the least of investors' concerns. flipping the script for the federal reserve for jay powell's first interest rate cut since the historic hiking cycle begam in. and we are looking to see if
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the first quarter results are enough to keep digging into equities. and later, not just the fed, but other central banks are is the set to release their decisions today. it's thursday, april 11th, 2024. you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc. ♪ good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange." coming to you live from cnbc london. thank you for being with us. let's get you ready for the trading day after the hotter than expected cpi report. we kickoff the hour with the u.s. futures after the rough day for stocks. the dow closed down 1%. following that hotter than expected march inflation print. the dow would open up 100 points lower. 120 lower. taking a dip lower while i'm
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talking. s&p and nasdaq down .25%. it was worse for the small caps and transports coming off 2% losses. yesterday's headline cpi read may have been a shock, but more attention this morning on the super core number stripping out food, energy and shelter at 4.81% year over year. that shows the fed still has more work to do. this morning, futures contracts tied to the fed funds rate showed traders see rates ending the year at 5%. suggesting a base case of just one or two quarter-point cuts this year. big shift from seven at the beginning of the year. we are watching treasuries with the yields the highest since november. the big jump yesterday with the ten-year yield at 4.56%. that is the setup. let's see how europe is getting
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under way here in london with silvia amaro. good morning, frank. european stocks in the red so far in the equity session. we are seeing a bit of of green from france with the cac 40 just marginally above the flat line. this is after that hot cpi printout of the united states. also, all eyes on the european central bank here as we wait to hear from the central bank. the key question is will we get certainty about whether the central bank will cut rates in june? i want to take you to the sectors and show you the picture at this stage. we have at the top is oil and gas which is up 1%. we have strong moves with telecoms when it comes to the session. we are seeing an appetite for defensive stocks at this stage. as i was trying to hint with the tel telecoms, they are down almost 2%. this as some companies in europe
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are complaining about the possibility that u.s. big companies could actually bid for cloud computing contracts in the eu. back to you, frank. >> silvia, thank you very much. i know you will cover the big ecb decision later today. busy day for you. let's turn attention to asia. a volatile session there. jp ong is standing by in singapore. jp. >> reporter: good morning, frank. a lot of markets in asia closing in the red. the tone was set on wall street with the hotter than expected cpi print which has cast doubt if rates will stay higher for longer. we saw yields rising here in the fixed income space in asia. china had concerns with deflation pressure. this hinting at a slowdown in the second largest economy. the shanghai composite rallying
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after opening up deeply in the red. the nikkei 225 is worth looking at with the volatility vanderbcurrency with the japan yen. the finance minister of japan coming in and saying they are prepared to intervene if we see the pullback on equities. it kept the yen in the red in today's session. i want to end with one bright note. it is not much to write home about, but the kospi managed to close in the glreen. the opposition party won a victory which might cast doubts on how well the president of south korea will introduce corporate reforms. there are investors coming in and taking a lot of action and approval with the heavyweights with samsung and hyundai. we will see if this carries on. this is something to watch in
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the coming weeks. frank, back to you. >> thank you, jp. to get more perspective on the market and expectations for rate cuts this year, joining me in london is nancy curtin. we are joined by vance howard at howard capital management. great to have you here with me. nancy, i'll start with you. what now? goldman sachs changed the outlook on rate cuts moving it down from two. we started the year with seven. as you advise people to invest, what do they do next? >> frank, it is important to be diversified so we don't just own equities. we will have diversify with portfolio. more importantly, we have to look forward now. we start earnings season on friday. our own view has been that earnings could surpass ex expectations in the first
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quarter and it may be earnings this year trump a less accommodative fed. we need to focus on earnings and we need to look to pce later this month. frank, pce is a pointl less tha cpi. >> it sounds like earnings may come to the rescue and save the rally for the fed? is that your thesis on earnings for the first quarter expected to go up? >> i have seen estimates up to 4%. it is a low bar. tsmc earnings in yesterday. no bad thing to give you a hint of where technology moves. this is the thesis that earnings could trump a less accommodative fed. it is a better position to be in with economic growth in the united states and the fed having to cut because the economy is so weak. >> vance, coming over to you.
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the earnings is the catalyst to keep the rally going or do you believe without rate cuts sooner than later, we will see a down turn in the market? >> what nancy said -- i believe she's spot on. the market is in a strong up print. you have cash on the sidelines. earnings are strong. it would scare me more if you need to drop rates six or seven times. that means we are worse than what we have with inflation. if you look at the cpi number, look at the big driver. auto insurance. that is crazy that one sector is driving up inflation. we have been bullish. you heard me say this many times over the past two months. buy on every pull back. >> you are still buying on every pull back. i want to talk about one thing you talked about. the small caps. you are laughing. down 2%. vance, i know you and tom lee
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are big on small caps. does that change your threeesis? >> it does to some degree. let's alook at this. 15% of the russell 1,000 is showing negative earnings. they rely on the short-term borrowing power. higher rates impacts them. the russell 2,000 on the chart with the two-year, that is pushing to the up end. if you look at the six-month chart, it is breaking down. i think there is a hidden gem. i don't think it has been more correlated with the small caps in history. it's amazing. >> i think you may be finally admitting that right now is not the best time for small caps.
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we see big moves to the upside for the ten-year yield. i'll come over to nancy. you mentioned you are a multiasset adviser. is now the time for short-term bonds? we have seen the spike in bonds. is now the time for the 60/40 portfolio? >> we are cautious on the long end of the bond market in the united states because of the supply. by the way, the treasury auction did not go well yesterday. there is a lot of supply. having said that, what is interesting is the markets are already beginning to tighten for the fed. you saw the two-year note go up and the dollar higher. many of these things will begin to do some of the fed's work for them. we have been cautious on the long end of the u.s. bond market with the fiscal deficit. >> the dollar parity with euro. a lot of people are excited about traveling. something you are excited about is gold. trading at the all-time high.
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do you believe gold has more upside? >> when you see this 97% move in gold, i think a bit of a pause makes sense. what is clear is geopolitical issues and things in the middle east. we have been warned by security services of israeli retaliation. geopolitical concerns. central banks are buying gold. emerging markets and chinese investors looking better than property in china t. there is demanded for gold. we have that as a hedge against inflation in portfolios. >> nancy curtin and vance howard, thank you. we have more to come here on "worldwide exchange," including
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the one word investors need to know today. first, we dig into the activity stocks following the cpi report. the chips. the haves and have-nots. more on the fed's next move and what to expect from the nearly two dozen fed heads speaking today. that's not possible. michelle meyer is here to weigh in. we have a very busy hour when "worldwide exchange" returns. stay with us.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." look at the s&p 500 laggards. you see paramount global with shares down. then solvent down as well. also, the sector laggards. real estate is down 2%. followed by financials and healthcare. turning back to the markets. the hotter than expected cpi report and rate cut expectations hit all parts of the market. intel and texas instruments and advanced micro all falling between 2% and 4% on the day. one semi name that avoided the smackdown yesterday was nvidia which was up 2% on the wave of
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positive comments. for more on if the selling is a buying opportunity, let's bring in steven fox. good to you have here. i'll jump into it. nvidia avoided the downturno ovr the other chip names. is this a buying opportunity or is this an etf buy? >> no, i think you have to be selective. there are still attractive valuations out there with western digital that people are ignoring. the fact they are splitting in two companies. the companies will benefit from the inflation trends like western digital and micron. other companies will see a little bit more pressure on the earnings with inflation now. >> you mentioned pressure on earnings and inflation. one area of inflation which is
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impacting chip stocks and other parts of tech is commodity inflation. i'm looking year to date. copper is moving to the upside. silver is moving higher. aluminum up under 5%. how does that change or does it change your thesis with the chip stocks with the rising inflation over commodities which are key to production? >> it depends on the companies. some companies use copper and silver. they have been managing through that for years. there are other more challenging areas where you are talking about new fab construction costs going up year over year or transitioning to a new fab technology in general which is more expensive and creates supply constraints. it depends on the company. in general, you know, because of what's going on in a.i., you are seeing what i've been calling competitive procurement. everybody has to get in and is worried about availability which
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is creating opportunities for the companies to benefit more than less from inflation. >> so, you say inflation is impacting, i guess, the customers whether it comes to data center buildout and things like that. does that impact your outlook on the chip stocks? >> one of the things that is interesting is a.i. spending has been crowding out spending on enterprise spending. as that has happened, it slowed down the recovery in certain cap ex areas especially with interest rates so high. industrial and extradtraditiona spending will happen and as we head into earnings season, we feel the slope is disappointing. part of that is due to inflation and higher rates. >> got it. steven, you came with picks. you mentioned western digital, but the other is flex. it is a contract manufacturer.
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why is this a flamname you are bullish on in the tech space? >> it is everything but apple now. for flex, you can look at flex which is a small cap name. in general, you are seeing the near shoring which is a trend that will continue if you pick up the paper every day and look at the global politics of the world, flex has a footprint all over the world. they can shift from china or asia to being more global in europe and the u.s. you layer on the internal abilities with power for data centers and also auto technologies. they are having a very good win rate on new programs and you factor in the idea they are only trading 12 or 13 times earnings
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with great cash flow means it is a chicken way to play the tech. >> steven, great. thank you very much for being here. coming up on "worldwide exchange," the one sector that is seeing the worst of the latest wall street rate shock and the stocks that are getting hit the hardest. your big money movers coming up when we return.
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welcome back. it is time for the big money
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movers. we are watching rate sensitive sectors like real estate which is the biggest loser in the s&p yesterday. check out the itv coming off the worst day since january down 4.7%. on pace for the worst week since move. lennar and kb home are trading below the 50-day trading averages. the kbe or s&p bank etf is breaking the worst day since january and down 2.4% this week. jpmorgan chase is down 1% this week and citi is off 2.5%. both report first quarter results tomorrow. check out m & t bank and u.s. bank. bowin both being down this week. and trump media is ticking higher today after sliding 9% yesterday. the stock is down 31% since the
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parent company of truth social merged with the spac late last month. as jim cramer says, there is a bull market somewhere. you don't have to look further than energy. pippa stevens has more with us. >> energy was the lone pribrigh spot. despite the recent out performance, energy is the second best sector this year. barclays is the wall street firm that sees upside. the firm initiated coverage on the e & p with the positive view saying we believe the sector offers a better value proposition than ever before pointing to a fundamental change from business model from growth to returns and prioritizing value over volumes. barclays added that energy
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stocks are punching above their weight in the sense they are 7% in the s&p 500 cash flow, but 3% of the index weight. the weight is around historic lows despite the fact the return on average capital has jumped amid the commodity prices. exxon is one of the top picks saying the company is getting back the major mojo with shares hitting a record on wednesday. chevron and conoco and coterra are the buy names from barclays. >> pippa, energy is the best performer this week. earnings season kicks off tomorrow. what should these investors watch? >> it is the narrative which is the commitment to shareholder returns and producer discipline. earnings are forecast to be below where they were two
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careers years ago when russia invaded ukraine. the companies are still making a lot of money with wti over $80 according to the latest survey. the break even is under $80 a barrel. frank, one area to watch is the refiners. they have been out performing all at record highs. gas demand is strong ahead of the busy summer driving season. >> pippa, thank you very much. coming up, bob pisani lays out the indication for the inflation trade. more "worldwide exchange" coming up after this.
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it is 5:30 a.m. in the new york city area. 10:30 here in london. there is more ahead on "worldwide exchange." investors getting ready for another round of inflation data after the selloff after the cpi report. futures are facing pressure ahead of the open. hotter than expected inflation read and the expectation that the fed is ready to pull the trigger on rate cuts. the reality of easing. the new economic numbers from china raising fresh worries around the world over the second
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largest economy. it is thursday, april 11th, 2024. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland coming pick u the futures after a rough day for stocks yesterday following the hotter than expected march cpi print. the dow would open 100 points lower. with futures near session lows and the dow is reporting with amazon down .50%. futures contracts showing a different picture than 24 hours ago. traders now see rates ending the year at 5%. that suggests a base case of one
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or two quarter-point cuts this year. with that in mind, we are watching treasuries. the benchmark is at 4.55. a big jump of yields after the hotter than expected inflation read. for more on the action, let's bring in frank kappalari. frank, good morning. good to have you here. we are talking about treasury yields. what are the technicals telling us about the direction of the yields? >> frank, thank you for having me. so far, as we know, the yields have been moving higher this year. we are not that strong of a pace. if you look back, there have been a series of phases along the way. the equity markets have been able to withstand a rate hike so
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far, but we don't want to see that exaccelerated again. we have seen that happen with the shock and awe with the equity markets. because of what happened yesterday, there is a chance for that to occur again. i look at the gauge which is a 14-week rsi indicator on the chart. you see over the last number of years where things got ex accel accelerated. it hasn't happened yet. the market is okay. we have seen that for a year and a half. we that pace gets too fast, that's when things get risky. >> we watch for the higher lows. i want to talk about the dollar. at parity with the euro. moving higher. forecasts could move higher from here. what are the charts telling us?
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>> the dollar is a similar story with the yields. yesterday was the biggest move in over a year. now we have a target near 107. if you look at the monthly chart, that is a high with the range in place since 2022. a lot of people think that range cannot persist. from 2014 all the way to 2022, that range was much longer and wider. overall, the market was flat for eight years until 2022. a similar story here. we are looking at the monthly basis. monthly rsi got overbought through different periods at the end of 2014 to 2015 and again in 2022. the same story is the dollar is proving it can move higher.
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we don't want to see things move out of hand on the upside where things start to move at a faster pace. i think, overall, the dollar has improved. it wants to breakout. i would be more of a seller at 107 as opposed to buying the breakout. >> frank, i want to be clear. according to the research, the dollar has been in a trading range since 2022. that is a positive for equities. if we see a sharp up move, that could be a headwind? >> correct. we go back to 2022. i don't think we're at that area right now. if the rates and dollar continue to move higher, we don't want to see that happen too quickly and all at once. >> frank cappelleri, thank you.
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it is good to talk to you today. to read more of frank's work, go to cnbc.com/pro. turning back to the economy. pain at the pump and stubborn home prices are weighing on consumers. and now we turn to the producer price index which is set to be released in a few hours as well as the dozen fed speakers all with fresh hints on the central bank moves today. joining me with consumer insight is my is michelle meyer. >> great to be here. thank you, frank. >> with all of the inflation concerns, we continue to see a strong u.s. consumer. your data shows consumer spending is not showing any signs of slowing down. >> if anything, we saw acceleration in march. january was a wobbly start. a lot of season al chal challen.
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that continued through march. even in categories we have not seen much with the electric spending. you see some goods categories picking up. that could be a replacement cycle the kicking in. not all. furniture and durable goods are seeing downward price pressure that showed in cpi yesterday. >> i want to talk about cpi in a minute. i want to focus on your data. an increase in online spending. why an increase over online spending? i thought we were trying to get back into the store and have more experience in our lives. >> we can talk about that momentarily. online spending helps to facilitate convenience. we have seen a structure trend
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higher toward greater ecommerce and online spending. it was triggered by the pandemic. it is persistent. i think that reflects the fact that consumers are looking for choices and promotions. they are looking for the full depth of the market with a lot of goods. >> i want to get your take on cpi. one of the catalysts for the cpi read was insurance. what was your read on the overall print and the other areas we are looking at with shelter and energy? >> i think to your point, frank, it is important to look at the different components. inflation is not uniform. far from it. you are seeing categories with inflation with insurance. in general, purchasing a car is a big-ticket item.
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prices have increased a lot and have not come down. rental inflation is rising. other types of services have proven sticky. that reflects the demand side of the economy. the labor market is strong. over 300,000 jobs added last month. low unemployment rate. that is keeping services inflation high which makes it a difficult decision as we look ahead for monetary policy. >> you are also forecasting a strong u.s. economy. you believe real gdp growth between 2.5% and 2.6%. michelle meyer, thank you. >> you got it. coming up on "worldwide exchange," we shift from inflation to china's deflation dilemma as leaders face fresh calls on the back of the weak economic numbers. we are live in beijing with the latest right after this break.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for the morning call sheet. td cowan with the buy rating and $320 price target for visa. it is building on the leading scale of the global payment net w work.
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and key bank is giving snowflake a $180 price target. the growth is driven by cloud migration trends and expanding product portfolio. shares are higher. raymond james out with the increase on nvidia moving it from $850 to $1,100 per share with the chips likely continuing to out pace the supply. turning attention over to china and renewed worries about deflation creeping back into the spotlight this morning when it comes to the world's second large ofst economy. eunice yoon has more. >> reporter: frank, march cpi missed at 0.1% and ppi continued to be a drag down 2.8% from a year ago. sitting in a year and a half long slide. the bureau cited waning demand march after the lunar new year holiday as the reason for the
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decline. food prices were bringing down the headline cpi number in addition to tourism prices which have been a bright spot for some time dropped to 6% from 23% in february. the easing deflation pressure in the past couple months as well as better export numbers and factory activity had raised hopes that perhaps the economy here is moving on to surer footing. goldman sachs raised the forecast to 5% from 4.8%. they cited manufacturing strength. frank, this cuts both ways. the overcapacity and the investment has been going into these manufacturers has been weighing down factory prices. >> you know, eunice, this is what fitch was warning about. deflation posed a risk to the chinese economy.
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you are there on the ground. what is going on with consumer spending? was it slowing after the lunar new year or is something else going on? >> reporter: as we talked about before, people are not confident about the outlook for the economy. in fact, when we have been going to malls, the lines that are the longest are the ones for the lottery because there's so much concern about being able to make money and not being able to find a job. one of the things that the government is trying to do is pushing the consumer trade-in policy which would help to boost demand. i think what is also a factor here is what is happening in your neck of the woods and fed policy. with u.s. inflation figures going higher, the authorities here are that much more limited in being able to loosen policy.
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the expectation is the policy remains loose and at the same time, the more cuts they make, the more pressure they put on the currency. they don't want to see capital flight. >> you know, eunice, if the line for the lottery is short, buy me a ticket. i heard if you buy a ticket out of town, you have a better chance of winning. i don't know if that is the real thing. >> reporter: you have really good lotteries with the powerball at $1.3 billion. it is unfathomable here. >> i'll get the guys in new jersey to buy some for me. eunice yoon, thank you. coming up on "worldwide exchange," the one word that every investor needs to know today and grappling with the reality and risk of reflation. where the issues are in the markets. and we land in colorado to explore denver and boulder over the rocky mountain life ststyle
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create power house economies. we're back right after this break.
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welcome back. time for the "wex wrap-up." the justice department looking to the investigation into the $14 billion takeover of u.s.
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steel by nippon steel. microsoft is set to reveal a.i. tools for pc and cloud users at the build conference next month. vertex is buying alpine immune sciences to get access to the therapies. each share is valued at $56 a share. the department of justice is accusing regeneron of fraudulent practices over the pricing of the vision impairment drug. the allegations are without merit according to regeneron. and costco boosts its dividend by 14% thanks to ecommerce. the ntsb is conducting more interviews this week as part of
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the alaska air door plug investigation shares are down this morning. and what to watch this morning is march producer prices and jobless claims. carmax reports before the open and the ecb is out with the monetary policy decision in a few hours. ahead of that, former boe member said the u.s. will likely cut rates before europe. be sure to catch two interviews today. andy jassy joins "squawk box" at 8:30 a.m. and adam neumann joins us at 1:00 p.m. and we have hotter than expected cpi report yesterday with the selloff across the board. we have bob pisani with more. >> frank, the reflation trade is back. a strong economy with earnings still strong, but inflation
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sticky creates a tricky narrative for investors. this is a tough environment for small-cap stocks and reits and utilities. higher rates are bad for reits. it is bad for utilities because when rates rise, treasury bonds are more attractive due to higher yields and higher rates mean increased borrowing costs for yo utilities. if utilities cannot pass on the higher costs, the equity investors have to suffer. some sectors may do well in the environment. the keys to the economy has to stay strong to prop up earnings. reflation trade means a focus on cyclical stocks, include energy, material and hospitality stocks. energy and material stocks have been rising due to higher oil in
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a still strong economy. other beneficiaries of higher rates are defensive stocks. i'm talking about kroger or walmart. another group that might do well is insurance stocks. life insurance companies, for example, take the premiums they get from customers and invest in bonds. when rates go up, they get more yields from the bonds. that generates more investment income for the insurance companies. the key, again, is the strong economy with continuing job growth. if that changes, if the job market weakens significantly and all of a sudden, we still have higher inflation than desirable, that is stagflation. that is a much bigger problem for the markets. frank. >> joining me with his take is sarat sethi. agree or disagree he that now is the time to go into the
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cyclicals? >> i agree. at this point, frank, the trade is basic materials and sm commodities. take example for copper. we have not built a copper plant for ten years. you look at free port or tech resources. you are talking about china previously. you see any growth globally, that will help especially with rates. i look at the energy and consumer stables. those are companies that can pass on price increases to the con consumers. the key to this is earnings. you are not going to get market multiple expansion. you get stocks moving. >> that's your "wex" word of the day? earnings? >> absolutely. frank, if you look at where we are now, the market is expecting
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earnings to grow. if we don't have that, you will get the market to come down. we already had that happen in some of the tech stocks. you need the rest of the market or soldiers to come back and stronger earnings. >> at the same time, you are saying earnings can save the day, but we had a guest on earlier who believed that as well. earnings expectations are on the decline. are there certain areas you need to see earnings expectations beat to keep this market afloat? if we see earnings expectations come in line, do we continue to see the strong rally we have seen so far this year? >> i don't think you will. i think you need earnings e expectations to go ahead. areas like health care and commodities are the areas if you get earnings beat and growth, you can keep the market. now, the equal weighted s&p is what i'm looking at, not the top weighted market s&p. the tech stocks are higher. that's where i would look and
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see whereat else is out there. >> got it. that's what i was asking, sarat. do we need to see big beats from the companies that dominate the s&p? i know you are focused on the equal weight. you are saying no. we need to see everything work out. your picks are in consumer staples. one is nestle and one is pepsi. you believe they will pass along the inflation when it comes to commodities to consumers? isn't the consumer already pretty stretched? >> i do. i think the thing with pepsi and nestle, they are innovative companies. they are both really out of favor. if you look at where they are historically with multiples and products, that's what we like. these are companies with diverse product lines. i look the solid bound growing balance sheets. if you get the 3% dividend
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yield, i'll take that with re-rating. >> a couple of your picks under valued. johnson & johnson and raytheon. sarat, thank you. a couple of things to look at before we let you go. the dow will open more than 120 points lower right now. right now, we are at session lows. s&p and nasdaq in the red. that's going to do it for us. "squawk box" coming up next. a big interview with andy jassy at 8:30. have a good day. ever worry your whole life is spent on golf? nah. sinking putts? the only thing sinking is my savings... there's the kid's braces and my parents to care for. i'm gonna caddy forever. with empower, i get all my financial questions answered, so i don't have to worry. empower. what's next.
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good morning. stock futures under pressure again after yesterday's 400-point drop for the dow. we will show you what's moving right now. titans of business were in washington last night to attend a state dinner at the white house for the japanese prime minister. reports say the attack by iran against israel is imminent after retaliation that killed some senior officials. it is thursday, april 11th, 2024 and "squawk box" begins right now.
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good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with mike santoli. andrew is live from seattle. andrew, what do you have coming up today? this is big. >> good morning, becky. we have a big show right here. we are live at amazon's headquarters in seattle for a big interview this morning. couldn't be better timed given the conversations about the consumer and inflation. we will speak this morning with the ceo of amazon andy jassy about just about everything. we will talk about the state of the consumer and a.i

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