channel. i was looking at their videos. high production value. they are costing more to produce. that will do it for this edition of "power lunch." glad you could be with s. the dow down by about 135 points , as we wrap it up. "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to "closing bell." i am live here from the new york stock exchange. this begins with a nervous market. investors on edge, a six month rally hanging in the balance. we asked her efforts -- experts what is really at stake in the morning. clearly evident in the price action today. really failing to get much going. the dow is down, not much for the s&p 500 or nasdaq today. interest rates are lower across

the curve today. it doesn't mean there aren't several stock stories of no. there are. clubbing is one dropping midday on reports the aa is now investigating a whistleblower claim around the 787 dream liner. alphabet hosting a big cloud event today. amazon going for a new record closing high. we will have analysis on both stories shortly. we will go to the talk of the tape. the release of the consumer price index. let's talk to liz young, the sophia head of investment strategy with me. good to see you again. >> big day. i mean, the rally has already sort of conked out trying to figure out whether or not it should keep going. i think today if you look under the surface of what is happening, we are on day 284 of no 2% correction in the s&p 500. i tallied them all up. it is the longest we have gone without a 2% correction since

2018. i say that, because we are used to the market going up. we are used to this for a very extended period of time. the pullbacks feel alarming, but since reality, we are nly down about 1.2% and this is not a big deal. when you look at the rally pausing, a lot of investors are waiting for that bigger correction, and the narrative continues to be that on a correction or a dip it should be bought. we have not had a good meaningful dip yet. tomorrow could be the day that starts a good dip, but that does not mean it has to end everything. >> everything but very hot on the cpi is good? i mean, j.p. morgan says in-line the trend stays in place. so largely that is the story that has been told. very cool you can have a bigger move. it is a very hot scenario that could lead to some weakness. then you really get some nerves tested as to where we are. >> just to prepare everybody,

the expectations are for headline cpi to be higher this month than last month, so there will be some hitting a pic with the fed has continued to say is i january, february coming in hotter than expectations is still in line with their expectations. that is the narrative we get from them again, maybe not alarming. there have been plenty of spread speakers of the last few weeks telling us what they are actually thinking. of course i think a way to hot cpi number is going to be a problem. that was in jitters to bond markets. that would send jitters to equity markets, rate expectations, all of it. i think the real issue with the avenue, number one, there are two options. the first real issue would be if hikes come back on the table if a railway. right now we are trying to decide if we will get a cut in june. if hikes come back -- but if you get a hot -- i'm not as much, i think they are less of an outlier now than they were in january. that is probably -- yes, and because of growth staying as

strong as it has because earnings estate and tax, because the labor market has stayed intact. the economy has proven against all odds that it has been able to withstand these hikes. if inflation continues to be a problem and we are looking at 3.4% headline cpi tomorrow, i would call that a problem for the consumer, then the fed does have to reintroduce the idea of getting harder on it again, because we have not quite defeated it yet. >> notes in part save a correction happened now, rotation beneficiaries would suffer first. we are talking about all of the sectors that started to work for march that have us believing, many of us in the broadening story. those are the most susceptible of the market pulls back. >> i do think so. a lot of those are cyclical. a lot of the broadening story had been predicated upon the economy is still very strong. we will get some loosening from the fed which loosens up financial conditions, make smart capital available. i think some of that narrative dies off, so that is part of it

would give it back. the other part is that we have had such a strong rotation and such a strong rally into a lot of those names. if you look at again what is going on under the surface today, the factors, momentum is dragging the whole thing down. everything that is done really well up until this point is doing pretty poorly today, and i think that would continue to happen. usually when you have a pullback it is the stuff that is easiest to get rid of, the biggest gains and stuff that is one of the most in recent times. >> what about earnings? are you optimistic? be met for the first quarter i am optimistic. i think there is anything that will come out of left field and say we are worse than we thought. earnings growth for the entire year is expected to be back end loaded. we are still relying a lot on the fourth quarter number to care is through 2024 with them on to growth as we can kick that out to the future and not worry about it this quarter. i don't think first quarter earnings in and of themselves are going to be a concern. the guidance that we hear from financials i think is going to

be really important to listen to. what are the risks that they may be seeing in the coming quarters. what have they done to prepare themselves for those risks, and why. i think those are things we will have to listen to very closely. >> why isn't all of this bullish for stocks? the economy is good. it is not like rates, we had inflation at 9%. rates are, okay, so the tenure is where it is today. it is not historically, like, you know, some crazy level. the economy is good. rates are going to be good. we don't need rate cuts now. isn't that a good thing? >> well, i don't think we should have rate cuts right now because inflation is not solved yet and you don't want to ignite every heating that drives this commodity trade higher, that drives inflation higher again. here's the problem. if inflation reignites right now , it is no longer a story of demand is strong, consumers are spending and that is what is

reigniting it. we have commodity prices reigniting it. costs are going up and companies will have a hard time pushing through another round of hikes in prices just because commodities went up. meanwhile, consumers are feeling the pinch at the gas pump. they are feeling it at the grocery store. they are feeling it in everyday life. pushing that through like we did before which raise revenues, supported earnings, it is no longer going to be the case. why isn't it bullish for stocks? i think it has been, but we have seen that already, and now we are at the juncture of the economy is stronger than we thought. what happens if it starts to cool? when will stocks decide weight, we want it to cool but not quite as much. >> but it is not cooling to the degree where we have to worry about that. we are still expected to stay above trending growth. >> corrects, which would keep inflation high. >> not necessarily. >> so far it has. if that changed, if we stay above trend growth and inflation came back down and we got closer to target, or at

least of it started to come back down. it's order plateaued for a while . it started to come back then and we felt like we were actually on a path to 2%, and the feds turn into message that as well, i think that is bullish for stocks. >> i think we are in the path towards target. we had messy reads in cpi and ppi, but the preferred measure that the feds look at is closer to target and on track to reach target. >> that is true. not by the end of this year. even the feds own projection still has it at 2.6%. >> they've made it clear they are going to cut rates well before it reaches target anyway. >> fair enough, yes. the other measure that they had hung their hat on for a long time was the super core and said as long as that was coming down, which it was for a while, that we were okay with it. super core is the core services x shelter. that's coming down. we talk about sticky inflation.

sticky inflation is services inflation which is still around and still an issue for companies and consumers. that is the piece that we need to budge off of the cliff. >> let's bring in amy, nice to see you both. we have been sitting here listening to it with us had to say about the market. where do you stand? >> i think she made a lot of very good points. i am not in the amp that we are talking about rate hikes at the moment. i think if cpi or any of the inflation data points turn hotter if not reverting back to the 2%, we might start to talk a little bit about the number of rate cuts being reduced further from a baseline of three. i think the market starts to react when you have official start talking about our rate cuts even necessary for the rest of the year. that is where the market reacts more dramatically, but if it gets pushed out, i think the markets are okay with that. >> jill, what are your expectations. start tomorrow morning. when you think is really on the

line for this rally that has been tremendous since the end of october, set new records along the way. what is hanging in the balance here? >> i think, you know, one of our core views has been that small caps could outperform this year. i think the next catalyst that many of these investors are looking to is the fed. we have seen a number of supportive factors for that size segment of the market and the market overall profits. growth has been accelerating. the market leadership has been broadening out. we have seen gdp come in better than expected. i think for stocks that have a lot of refinancing risk that that is going to be an issue for many small caps. i think the fed is the next catalyst where our house he was that inflation should continue to cool, the fed does hike in june, or cut in june, rather, and we get three cuts this year, but obviously it could be a close call, so the inflation

data tomorrow will be important to any investors in that regard. the mac your base case is three cuts, right? >> yes, that's right. >> you have not wavered off of that in any way. what if i told you there is no way we are getting three. but if we are lucky we are going to get one. with that change your outlook for the market? >> i think if we don't get a cut in june, then there is risk that we don't get a cut for some time. you know, the market i think has held up well, despite inflation. i think for companies, when we look at what they have talked about on earnings, pricing power has been surprisingly strong. i think from here obviously as was just discussed, it becomes more challenging to raise prices as you have raised prices this many times. we are seeing commodity inflation generally parts of the market like small caps have been able to hold up well in their environments given their sector exposures, but given where we come from and given how inflation is trended, i

think a lot f investors are now looking for inflation to cool, and for the fed to be able to cut, to sort of catalyze some of those segments like the small caps that have lagged out to perform. we are targeting 5400 on the s&p 500 for year end for the target. >> do you think we are too optimistic about how the economy will end up? i think that is one of the principal things liz has been talking about for many months that history would suggest. when you raise interest rates as much as the fed has raised this time, there is going to be something to pay for that on the other side in terms of economic weakness. markets like 70 to 80% on soft landing, that is probably too high. what you think? >> i think you raise a really good point. right now what is propping the markets up is obviously a little bit of momentum, but earnings is still okay. i think the next earnings

season and really the rest of the year is something we are paying a lot of attention to. as long as earnings continue to grow to the expectations, i think that will keep the ratio higher. what we are also seeing is a pretty stretched out consumer. i think that is something to keep in mind as well. you've got a savings rate as a percent of disposable income now to low single digits. you have delinquency rates are to move up a little bit. i think there is a pull forward of future savings to propel the economy today, and that is something i'm keeping tabs on. >> what about the broadening story? if there is a correction in the market, the broadening story is going to end quickly first. do you believe in it, does it have durability? what do you think? >> i think certain corners of the market that rely on interest rates will probably fall backwards. i think a lot of the rates for example that are more interest- rate sensitive could be a little more sensitive if the number of rate cuts start to diminish for the rest of the year, but ultimately it is all an earnings story. there are a lot of companies

out there that need financing but have good earnings. i think those companies will do just fine. >> one of the i guess more controversial perspectives is that, as you have suggested, that small and mid-cap stocks can continue to do well in an environment where, what if we don't get the rate cuts that we expect. maybe you are making that call based on your own personal view or the house call over there that you think we are going to get three cuts. of course you would think that maybe the small caps when i perform at their areas of the market, but i have heard people more definitive and say until you get an actual rate cut, you can't trust the move in the russell in the small caps and mid caps, for all of the obvious reasons that everyone always just. >> i think, our view is that small caps will outperform this year. obviously our view is that we will also get rate cuts this year. there have been other positive factors in light of recovery in

economy and gdp growth being other than expected, market broadening, key indicators reflecting. that is an environment where small caps usually do well. usually small caps outperforming the fittest on hiking, as well as after the first cut. i think, i agree with investors that at this point all eyes are on the fed, and ending the hiking cycle may not be enough giving refinancing risk, the fact that 40% of debt for small- cap is floating. i think outperformance is going to become more challenging if we don't see the fed cut in june or other times this year. then i think it makes sense to be more selective. there are areas within small caps that have a lot more refinancing like real estate and others, some of the energy materials, industrial commodities sectors that have less potential hits to earnings if rates stay high and could do

well if commodity prices stay elevated. we think this is a year to be selective, pick stocks, and that would be especially true if we don't see rate cuts and the performance of the russell 2000 may be more challenged. >> if i told you we are going to remain above trend growth for the foreseeable future, and the fed is going to cut interest rates at least one time this year because they cannot, because i have to, would you change the column the idea that you said in the past that we are late cycle? with that force you to rethink where we are within the cycle? because in the same light, if you think we are late cycle as you do, it does color your view on what you think the equity market can then do. >> it does. i guess it would change maybe where i would expect more upside in the equity market. if we stayed above trend growth and yields, i'd have to add another piece, if yields stayed under control. >> i say you are above trend

growth, the fed cuts, because they can, that implies that rates are going to go down. >> the fed doesn't usually cut midcycle, so i would still probably say we were late cycle. if we manage to chug through with good growth, and they managed to cut because they want to, not because they have to, that is the part i am least optimistic about, then i still think that it is because inflation came down, we finally got things to cool off a little bit, and then we sort of come along in this comfortably late cycle zone. it is much like what happened in the mid-90s where we hummed along for a while and then it reheated mid-90s for the things we all know, the tech bus and everything. it is possible we hummed along. if we look at things like the unemployment rate. if we were earlier midcycle the unemployment rate would be much higher than this and coming down. it would not have bottomed and possibly becoming backup.

earlier midcycle, we would have inflation starting to heat backup, not necessarily coming back down at this point. we would not be looking forward to cuts. we would be considering whether or not hikes were coming sometime soon. i would stick with late cycle. it doesn't mean it will last a long time. my outlook this year was titled cycle for the ages. i think this could end up being a cycle where we set a lot of records for the length of time in between all these metrics. >> we keep surprising people in terms of the fact that the economy can do better than people think, that earnings will be better than people expected, and that the fed is going to be able to put this -- pull this off at the end of the day despite the naysayers that say it is way to optimist. >> i think you hit it spot on. ultimately speaking, it is all really based on earnings, based on whether or not the evaluation levels can support that, whether earnings can grow into the p/e ratios we are

seeing. ultimately i think at the end of the day, as long as ernie's can continue moving, and barring no shocks to the system, you could have a humming along kind of environment like we've seen so far. >> it will get interesting this week, because after tomorrow and the next day with ppi, we will be talking about earnings. we will see all of you soon. we are just getting started here on "closing bell.". up next, the ai arms race in effect today. big technologies alex is standing by to join us. we are live at the new york stock exchange. you are watching "closing bell" you are watching "closing bell" on cnbc t's brilliant? boring. think about it. ring is the unsung catalyst for bold. what straps bold to a rocket and hurtles it into space? boring does. boring makes vacations happen, early retirements possible,

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the battle for a and leadership eating up again today with nvidia under pressure after both intel and alphabet announced new ai chips. christina joins us now with the details. >> reporter: google announcing its 50th generation chip not only capable of powering google search engine and a related work as well, but also serves as an alternative to nvidia's gpu's. intel is also releasing specs today on their new ai chips, the county 3 which they say is better and has better efficiency than nvidia's chip. what is missing from google and intel's offering is nvidia's entire ecosystem, especially when it comes to the software nvidia offers which is popular with developers, but the news on these companies is driving nvidia shares lower. nvidia has been down six out of the last seven sessions as the ai mania trade takes a

breather. the conferences are behind us now and investors are looking into how exposed they are as they head into the next earnings cycle. shares down 3% right now. >> joining me now, alex kantrowitz , the founder of big technology , and a cnbc contributor. does nvidia have anything to worry about here? >> i would not be too worried. give the big tech companies building their own silicon and nvidia is crushing right now. the fact that developers look to nvidia's software to train and run these ai models gives it an advantage that is very difficult to catch up to. intel can tell us all day long about how powerful its ships are. he does not have the software advantage that nvidia does, which means ai developers are locked into the nvidia ecosystem for now. >> the question is for how long, because you do have whether it is nvidia for , intel , all of these other folks who

want a piece of the action, and you have to believe they will spend whatever they have to spend to get it, and they probably will get some of it. question is how much and when does it start to eat into whatever advantage nvidia has ? >> my personal take is it is going to be a while. i talked to developers about this and they say there is momentum to this. you have built on nvidia entrained on nvidia. to get your developers to train on the other system, it has to be orders of magnitude better to make the move, because you are telling developers you are running this successfully. ai is the most important part of your business right now and you're going to now go to another system. that is to be orders of magnitude better a performance to me in the move, but it can be quite some time with nvidia. >> you could look at the google arm announcement and say what is it mean for arm, but i would make the argument that this is a more important day for alphabet. just given where

the narrative is gone around its ai ambitions of the last, i guess year, and how there have been recent stumbles of late, how should we assess where they are today? and by the way, i said this on the halftime report. if you look at the stock performance is at both alphabet and microsoft over the last 12 months, they are identical. the narrative wouldn't have you believe that at all. >> that is a great point. both of these things can be true. the narrative that google is n trouble, because their margins are going to e lower. then building out their own chip rings down the cost to run these models. that's actually pretty big for them. then again, the story of everything changing for google's business. that is also true. we might see differences in search. they might be able to make some moves in cloud which they have been doing. they are gaining on amazon and

microsoft, but it is a different world for google. you can have lower margins but also new opportunities. >> you think they were written off too early? >> we've talked about it in the past. with google you have to wait. it is a big company, completely competent from a technical standpoint. the culture was moving slow. i was like, give it time to see if they can right the ship. i'm not 100% confident they are going to. there are still cultural issues within the company, but people who said it was over for google that was way oo early. even thinking about search, being has not cut into google's lead. we are more than a year after the introduction of chat gpt. >> let us switch to amazon trying to close at a new high today. it may not get there at this moment. how would you assess the job that the ceo has done, the hand that he was dealt, and that time it has taken him to turn the ship around. i mean, is that too much to say

that they have turned the ship around at this point? can he declare victory at this point? >> i think they've turned it around but in a very particular way. they cleaned up some of the mess that jeff bezos left. jeff raises wanted to do everything, not all of them were working, and then the overbuild during the pandemic. the second thing is really important because they had a pull back and figure out how to make the business work again. way too bloated. basically planning. they had a plan for an era where everything moved to e- commerce because if they did it and it continued it would be sunk. did not happen that way, so they had to do this pullback. they have costs under control, but then the question, amazon has always been an experimental company, company that ill say you are only as good as your next bent and delivery to the market what it needs today. narrowing focus is something the market wanted, and i do

wonder whether they are going to lose that inventiveness and an experimental nature, which it doesn't seem like they have now is much. >> when people ask you what is going on with apple stock, the worst performer of the mega caps, tesla not withstanding, what do you tell them? >> it is a rough moment for the company. they've been submitted building this device, the iphone pet. their culture hasn't been ready for the next big thing. you saw that with the car. it's not like they didn't put billions of dollars towards a self driving car, but they didn't have the culture that could build it because they were flexible enough. a lot of these companies have flexible culture. if there is something new they will throw people at it and they will be open, open cultures, not silos like apple does. they are used to designing things that don't have a hardware timeline, even though apple has a very good operating system with ios. i think you see that also with ai. they are behind on the next

bets because they have not been experimental enough. way too top-down still. that's how they have to change it if they want to play in the next era of computing. >> the narrative is there behind, but we don't know. have almost 2 months to the day we are looking to find out. >> a lot of pressure on apple to deliver a very big ai announcement, and even then there is still some incumbent risk. how much of your device you want to change to enable the new era for ai? the mission with google. do we want to blow up search to make way for generative ai? if you are apple do you want to blow up the way the phone works to make room for the new computing method. if you are not willing to go far enough, is another manufacturer going to come in and say let us throw in a bunch of ai features and it is game on against apple. >> thank you, alex kantrowitz here with us. don't miss the google cloud ceo in a cnbc exclusive interview at 1:00 p.m. eastern time. the dean evaluations, he

is back and gives us his market review ahead of tomorrow's critical cpi report. "closing bell" is coming right back. from our environmentally friendly extraction process. encore energy.

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welcome back. stocks pulling back across the board with nvidia leading big tech lower today. the question now, are stocks overpriced ahead of this week's

key economic data and earnings season just around the corner. nyu stern's school of business professor of finance, welcome back. it is good to see you. i feel like you have taken a bit of a turn rom your notes. is that accurate for your current market view? >> there are couple of things. one is a good news for this year has been that earnings estimates have been going up. not by a lot but almost consistency -- consistently. but at the same time inflation seems to be much more stubborn than people thought it was going to be at the start of the year. tomorrow's numbers will be pretty significant and where the market goes next. to be quite honest, where inflation goes the rest of the year is going to drive the market. >> you think tomorrow morning as a binary event. something too high could mean the end of this, would you say

it is the end of the rally itself? >> not necessarily, but i think to the extent that people have pulled back already, i see a lot more skeptics in the market now than six weeks ago. it gives them another reason to stay on the sidelines. even if they aren't selling, they aren't buying, and that itself can have an effect on the market. i think it is going to be not necessarily the event, but one of a series of events, just as in 2022. the collection of inflation announcements that got us into trouble, this will be one more piece of information we used to make a judgment on where is inflation in -- where is inflation going. >> forgive me. you go ahead. >> looking at the best indicator , what investors think about in terms of inflation, and is up from three point eight oh percent to four point -- that suggests to me that investors in the bond market are expecting inflation to continue

to stay above 3%, no water -- no matter what the fed say about inflation. >> you are suggesting to our producers and i'm quoting from the note here, the market is over adjusted 2 positive development over the course of last year, the decline of inflation from the heights of 2022 and the reseeding of worries about recession. you sound like you are stealing a page from jamie dimond where he suggests you could see a further spike in rates and that the market has just gotten way too optimistic and over its skis on the idea that the economy is fully out of the woods. >> and i agree on that one, because i think that especially on the inflation front, inflation's history is incredibly stubborn. you think you have put it away for a while but it keeps coming back. the probability might be low that you are going to back into a 2022 level. there is a chance it could happen. commodity prices are up here

going to think you can rule it out. i don't think the market is incorporating that likelihood enough. >> what is your own view on rate cuts? i would assume that in some respects that has to partially at least color your view on the evaluation of the market. >> i'll be quite honest. the fed can raise rates, cut rates, or do nothing to rates. i don't care about the t-bond rates as much. they will take their own path and that will be independent of what the fed does. remember last year, the fed, they think about raising rates they raised the rates three times. the t-bond rate did not move. i make the same prediction for this year. december 31, 2024, we look at the t-bond rate. whether it is 3% or 5% will have nothing to do with the fed cut rates. it will have everything to do with inflation whether it is below 2.5% or stays above 3%.

>> do you think the market is overvalued today? >> i think it is setting itself up for disappointment in the second half of the year. i think in terms of asymmetry, the risks of a downside. i'm not one of those who sells everything and runs for the hills, but i don't think it has ever worked, but this is not the kind of market where i would jump in with both feet, because you are i think, and it is not just economic uncertainty. it is political uncertainty. i am surprised the market is not factoring in some of those uncertainties more in pricing stocks. >> we have an election not that far away. some would suggest the life that really matters in the face of everything is the trend change from the fed. we are going to get cuts we assume at some point, and why fight the fed. >> i have been hearing that since the start of the year. markets are up in spite of the fact that the must -- much promised cuts have not had --

happened yet. >> interesting. given if the economy remains strong and inflation comes down , that would be a good scenario, wouldn't it? >> i think that to the fact it goes back to my point about inflation. is it serious about inflation are not serious. when it does not come own below 3% of the fed proceeds on its rate cuts, it's sending a message saying we are not that serious about inflation, that would be a pity after two years of fighting inflation. >> tomorrow morning it's going to get real. thank you. aswath damodaran from nyu joining us once again. up next , we are tracking the biggest movers. christina is back with that. >> we have another boeing whistleblower raising concerns about the dream liner aircraft, and moderna shares moving after trial results. that's up next.

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we are 15 out from the belle. let's get back for the stocks we are watching. >> reporter: they are jumping

6.5%, moderna, and the cancer vaccine in a positive response in an early stage trial in patients with a certain head and neck cancer. they are still roughly 31% off of their 52-week high. boeing shares dropping 2.5% on a new york times report that the federal aviation administration is investigating an engineer's complaint about safety issues with the 787 dream liner plane. the boeing employee had worked in a particular plane set certain parts were not properly fastened together, and that is why you are seeing the stock drop by 2%. still ahead, trading trends , a new survey shedding light on which retailers teenagers are favoring and the ones falling out of style. we will give you the names and how that could impact stocks when "closing bell" comes right back.

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and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley we are in the closing market zone. mike is here to break down the crucial moments of this trading day, plus kate rooney and amazon shares approaching a major milestone. courtney reagan with the key takeaways from piper sandler's team take away. to begin with mike, so bostic giving an interview in which he says cpi coming in at consensus would be a welcome development. just good is good enough. >> remember, bostic is on the hawkish end right now.

he was essentially saying there are conditions under which he would pull those expected rate cuts further, or into the present are closer to the present, which would mean if obviously disinflation resumed, or the pain in the job market. the point being conveying flexibility, try not to be perceived as having an unduly high hurdle for getting to a june or july rate cut. that makes sense. the market has done enough, maybe, to get the wall a little bit higher pick it just makes sense. i know everybody says, but the economy is strong, like, they are kind of talking around the issue, which is inflation went from 9 to 3. the fed knows 5% plus fed funds is in the wrong spot if inflation even is it 3% or below 3%. it is the only way it can punctuate a tightening cycle. >> that is what some say now, inflation is where it needs to be now where they have to cut.

>> they have endorsed that in their outlook. i think they are trying to be either a little bit too demanding of the data or too cute of saying what is the risk of waiting, and it is true. the market is 1% off of its high. credit spreads are great. jobs are still growing. i think they want to get moving in that direction just so that the perceived risk of saying -- staying too tight too long is not as high. >> the market did move a bit. >> it did twitch higher. we are definitely in wait and see mode. we have been turning around a couple of weeks now and it makes sense that we do need to see this number, there are not that many more inflation numbers to come before june. it also underscores that if it is a genuinely cool number and there is no but look out for this other element of it that makes you more concerned about the market will have a relief rally. >> jpmorgan going through the scenarios this morning was very much -- >> real buying follows whatever

pop we get remains to be seen. >> the s&p 500 just going positive. the doubt is way off of its lowest levels. we are watching amazon to see if it will get this record, and as a matter fact now it is in the green. >> reporter: it is approaching the record close. $186.57, not quite there but we have a few minutes. there has been a wave of optimism lately around amazon. a handful of price targeting increases, reaffirming it is one of wall street's top picks. the average price target is $209, 13% upside. 95% sale side firms have a purchase rating. no cell ratings on amazon. it is one of the internet's largest true alpha dogs. talks about scale and e- commerce combined with that club business aws. jeffries for his part says still plenty to be excited

about. the topic for morgan stanley points at a better cost to serve, more efficiency, private -- prime driving's in cloud adoption. risks, they are there, but any aw has declined. anything, any weakness there could be seen as a big weight on the stock, any sort of e-commerce competition is one of the downside risks as well. >> thank you. they are about one dollar away from the new closing high on amazon. we will watch it closely over the final three minutes or so. teenagers are fickle, but when are we learning today? >> interesting. they still love amazon. far and away the number one spot for shopping. twice a year, they survey teenagers on all sorts of topics, but retail brand preferences is always key. it

does change analyst ratings and stocks. today's release is no exception. overall teenagers report they are spending 6% less than they were last year, but 1% more from the fall. 65% think the economy is worsening. oh nike is still teenagers favorite brand, it has lost share with them, for the first time in years. piper sandler says the survey gives more confidence in demand trends. on holding, dekkers and birkenstock. nike, and lulu lemon. there are areas of moderation. still piper comes away saying we remain bullish on elf, slightly more cautious on alta, but we still remained buyers, which is interesting after what we heard from the ceo saying that he is starting to see more brought in earlier and potentially more intense than he had anticipated. we met courtney reagan, thank you very much. mike, we had the two-minute warning, 90 seconds o o.

interesting buying in some of the mega cap names. >> it's interesting, because a lot of the dynamic today in the absence of a lot else, the selling of the winners in a migration into perceived flaggers or defenses. you have had apple qualify as a logger. and nvidia, nvidia, there is a sense that maybe they are kind of, their lead might be diminished. you have google going elsewhere, and tell making noise. the stock ran so much, that is the biggest single weight on the s&p 500. i do find the interesting profit-taking in the year to date winners. a dozen of the year-to-date winners earlier in the s&p 500 were almost all down 2%. >> uber, and looking at those specifically. >> supermicro. that tells you in part people are raising tax. maybe we can write that off, or maybe portfolio pruning ahead

of cpi after we had this really nice run, and we want to know if this is a wobble or something more. >> the dow is trying to work its way into the flatline, s and p positive, nasdaq is well. cannot wait for tomorrow. let's go into overtime now. there you have it. a gain for the s&p 500 albeit just barely. 5210, the nasdaq turning higher in the final moments of trading as well, but the dow just below the flatline. well, major averages, the action is just getting started. welcome to "closing bell overtime." investors await a key reading on inflation tomorrow. meanwhile, earnings season is about to kick off.