months. you don't have to hit two, but you got to be kind of on the route to two to get those rate cuts. >> okay, we'll be watching. we know you'll be breaking it down for us, steve. good to have you here. >> good to be here. >> all right, well, markets basically finishing off the highs of the session, as we do await a heavy week in terms of all this data. that's going to do it for us here at "overtime." "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. eclipsing nvidia. it's been a dark month for the chip giant, while the sun is now shining on google parent alphabet. what is this reversal of fortunes say about where the tech trade goes from here? plus, the biden administration dolling out billions to a major semiconductor giant that's not an american company. is this a risky move or a smart maneuver to secure our a.i. future. and topping the tape, a new etf that lets you invest in

private tech startups. a bitcoin bounce back. and charting the p in blicep. why one technician is going from bearish to bullish. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, courtney garcia, dan nathan and guy adami. alphabet jumping more than 14% over the past month and outshining the rest of the mag seven. meanwhile, a.i. darling nvidia stalling over that same time period in an unusual place, the red. a nearly 225% gain over the past year. what does alphabet's turnaround tell us about the a.i. and tech state of play? this is the one month anniversary of that key reversal that guy so fondly refers to. >> march 8th. i think people are concerned somewhat about valuation, and they're looking for places in a rising interest rate environment, which we're clearly in, where they can wrap their head around valuation and google's been that stock all along. so, when rates were low, google was sort of left on the side of

the road for the high growth names. now that rates are a bit of a story, i think people are finding google directly, by the way. >> do you feel like this is a change that sticks or does nvidia come back? >> i think you are likely going to continue to see people going away from things like nvidia, which has revenue that is likely going to decelerate going into 2025. when you look at google, the cash flow they get in search puts them in a key position to continue investing in things like a.i. for the future. so i think that trend is likely going to continue. the magnificent seven keeps going down and now, it's now the fab four, you know, and who knows how many we're going down to, but i think things are going to shift away from those names. >> you have to look what people have thrown at you, what the market has thrown at you, what the pundits have thrown at, their inability to deliver on, they should be right outof the gates an a.i. 101 delivering a product, and, yeah, there's been some understandable and

appropriate criticism, but if you look at a stock that's continuing to make fresh highs, we talked about so far, it's combination of valuation. a rising rate environment has shown megacap tech stock to be very defensive. if you look at that peak data, not just for nvidia, but the semiconductor group as a whole, have underperformed the s&p by 5% in the last month. it's been an environment where you put to test, you know, growth at any cost, we don't care, there's an argument for ind nvidia, we'll get into that, but go google, i just look at what meta's been able to do, and yes, they are given correct for having the ability to benefit from a.i. now, whether it's reels, some of their other offerings. you can make an argument that google is now. but meta and google are both part of the cyclicality of the economy, especially in ad spend, and that's really good. we don't talk about their core business, we've been so quick to point out just, where are they tomorrow? i think tomorrow is certainly

going to be fine. >> yeah, to me, it's really about sentiment and expectations. if you think about nvidia, the sentiment is really bullish and the expectations are high. google, the sentiment is really bearish, expectations are actually very low. so, when they talk about a broadening out, different ways to play this, nvidia was the way to play it over the last year and a half. you have that 300% gain. the one thing i'll just say is that expectations for earnings growth this year, current fiscal year for nvidia are about 80% and same for sales growth, and the stock trades 35 times this year's expected earnings. this is not an expensive stock. here's the problem with next year, 2025, you have expectations for 22% earnings and sales growth and trading at 30 times next year's earnings and about 16 or 17 times sales. so, it's really expensive there. so, if you have some deceleration, what courtney is talking about, over the course of this year, you start seeing them hit those numbers, but not being able to guide up. and then you have a situation --

it's all-in on the stock. then maybe we're going to have a wave where we have a cyclical downturn, where more supply comes online, companies don't commercialize the products. that's potentially true for google. alphabet. if they are able to come in line or do better than expected this quarter, aftertwo consecutive negative quarters, and really bad guys, and then guide up, the stock's going higher. it will be a catchup trade. i do think there are interesting comparisons despite the fact that companies really have nothing in common. they are in, like, a supply chain, if you will, together, but it is about sentiment and expectations. >> maybe this is part of the search for the other a.i. plays that are not the hard core, the hardware picks and shovels aspect of it. we saw it with meta, we saw it with, well, micron, in the chips sector, and deck, jull, looking the a.i. plays, and maybe this is part of that same sort of thinking, application of a.i., not just product, but to its own business. >> this is a market, people have

front-run stories like that. i would think apple would be the logical place. apple's been trading terribly now for the last six months, if not longer. vis a vis the broader market. i hear what you're saying, but the most obvious candidate to take advantage of that is apple and it's not getting any love. >> are we going to wake up one day and say, oh, look at apple, it's now the a.i. play. who thinks that? >> i do. >> you do? >> you're never going to count apple out, and some of the same reasons i love google. think of the data that google has, the massive user base. these are things you can sate about apple, different type of data, et cetera. i think ultimately, apple's ability and their ability -- i guess really to own the consumer, to have that interface and that operating system be part of their life, and we talked about where google kind of owns the desk top, and owns the mobile side, so, i think -- you can't count apple out, but it's underperformed the s&p by

20%. apple is waiting for a new catalyst. meanwhile, you have really taken a lot of the faster money out of that stock. at some point, it gets interesting. holding $165 to $170 is very important for apple, but we've proven that apple is not critical to this market. >> yeah, i'll just say this, i think you were saying it last year, you thought apple gets to 140ish, i got down there and that was a buy. clearly it was a buy. it made a new all-time high, got to 195 or something like that. on a valuation basis, it doesn't look great relative to growth. we've been talking about that. they haven't had any new products. but if they were to miss and guide lower because of china, because of iphone, people not really that interested in some of their new products, and you have to think out a year or so, let's say they do a deal to license gemini with google, they do a deal with openai, maybe there's something out there, you get into worldwide developers forum, you get people excited, what they're able to build on that 2 billion ios install base, that sort of thing. the next phase, the next things

people get excited about is a.i. on the device, right? if you think about a device maker that is really good at doing this stuff, it's them. a move lower, because of disappointment, because of china, would set up really well into early june and then you want to own it, because i do think the sentiment and expectations there again are low. >> we've said so many times, in terms of apple, if they just said, we have an a.i. product and all you have to do is pay $5 a month and multiple that by their install base, that's a lot of incremental revenue. just because you are in that ecosystem already, why not? you click it and you're done, you're subscribed. >> yeah,and i don't think we can discount them as getting into the a.i. play, they have been on the sidelines, and the fact they are having to utilize potentially gemini with google, i don't think that's necessarily a good sign, but it's not to say something's not in the pipeline. i think they have bigger issues. people are not as interested in upgrading their iphone. they have a lot of competition in china. there's anti-trust issues. i don't think this is just an

a.i. issue with apple, they have a lot of other stuff going on. you need to keep that in mind, as well. >> that's a great point. this -- apple, we're talking about other things, and i would get back to google, too, you know p, know, it's been easy to applaud where google has gone, but there's an argument that c-suite here has not been as aggressive as the other c-suites, and certainly less than microsoft, less than meta. and you have the dynamic with ruth, where supposedly cfo transition, what's going on there? i feel like in google's case, you have other issues that are holding back the company, and really, otherwise, it gets back to advertising's 80% of their gross revenue, search is 60% of that. i think there's a real good tailwind for that right here and now for their core business. that's why i think the stock is going higher. the business is fine. the economy is fine for what they do and they still dominate it and that's why you get it at a reasonable price. >> i don't want to say nvidia's fall, because it is far from a

fall, but stall over the past month, what does this mean for the markets? if you thought nvidia was sucking the oxygen out of the room, so to speak, and that oxygen is released, where does it go? and if we're seeing it go to a place like alphabet, does that mean it's going to more value-oriented names, in general? >> well, if the question is -- i think it is -- nvidia continues to break down, and it has not traded particularly well since that march 8th day, what does it mean for the broader market? now, i would say the broader market is going to suffer on the back of that, but i would have said the same thing about apple, and that hasn't happened. though i do think right now, nvidia in terms of market sentiment might be a little bit more important. so, if you see this continued deterioration, and that's what it is, i think the broader market has problems, and it's going to drag down, i believe, the smh. i thought for awhile the smh is destined to trade back to 163. i think that's the level you're looking for. >> there's other names out there, adobe, i mean, this stock has -- literally making new six,

seven-month lows. this is supposed to be a beneficiary of a.i. i mean, there's a whole host of other software names that are not really participating right now, so, the question about nvidia is just the scone trags there, the concentration, them owning this cycle, right, and so, you mentioned earlier, you know, micron. a couple weeks ago, they announced earnings, and they're going to tell us, all of the servers, the super competers, the data centers, they need memory, right? so, like, okay, so, they join the party. dell joined the party, because they make the servers. so, we're seeing this again and again. the concentration of this enthusiasm and the pushing of valuation limits and the like here, sooner or later, we're going to get above what you can actually kind of see commercialized across all of these different companies or so. and i think companies like adobe are kind of telling you that. they are riding the wave last summer about the enthusiasm about, if there was ever a company that's going to use generative a.i., the productivity suite and whatever, they're not doing it. so, i think there's going to

come a moment this year where a company like microsoft disappoints on how they're integrating this openai software, and i think the whole thing is going to take a breather. i don't think it's going crash. but we're going to start talking about valuation against. >> 165 on the smh, you're talking about 25%, my friend. >> that is -- just did a little quick math. i don't know if you could hear the brains turning. >> i thought i heard something. >> little creaky. >> does that mean the more value part of the market is starting to move? the more value part of the market has been moving. i agree with dan's call even on software companies. i would argue that when you saw some of the big -- palo alto's big donut they dropped. even if those are more exposed either to security, but there's certainly an a.i. component of this. they were rallying along and they fell at the same time. meanwhile, the rest of the market, i get back to, what's going on with banks,

industrials. every day, new all-time highs. a bit of a pull-back last week. let's see where the charts look. to me, the more value-oriented part of the market, the part of the market selling off for two years is the part that's been the most interesting part of the last two months. >> does nvidia stall make you more confident in that move by the value stocks? >> it's -- it's reassuring in some way that the market isn't just, you know, all over the smh hype, but i will tell you, i think if the semis are getting to guy's level, this market is going to be through a lot of pain, so, i still believe that the semis have led the market for the last 2 1/2 years and if you really see massive deterioration, i don't think the overall market can withstand that. for more, eric hirsch joins us now. great to have you with us. >> happy to be here. >> i know you are a private credit guy, but just your general take on the markets and the conversation that we have been having. what is your view of nvidia,

sort of stalling out and leaving some oxygen for the rest of the markets to breathe even more? >> well, i think that's really the issue, melissa. you've had the public market so dominated by such a small number of stocks that frankly causing -- we see investors moving away from the public markets and more towards the private markets, where they are picking up a balanced, div diversified portfolio. >> wondering, for your part of the world, private credit, you know, what -- what the rate environment, what you see the rate environment being, and also, if jamie dimon is right and says, you know, as high as 8% in the next couple of years because of various inflationary dynamics, what does that do? >> i think we should break private credit into a couple of buckets. you're seeing the surge of private credit. really because of the demise of the regional bank. think about being a classic entrepreneur and think about where you're going to get access to capital. for a lot of them, it was the regionalen banks. and so, that market has really

been sort of superceded by the private credit managers. we've seen a huge rise of private credit managers, a lot of expertise, a lot of talent, and a lot of capital sort of sitting there. i think to jamie dimon's point, i think there's a today issue and a tomorrow issue. i think today, i don't think we're seeing any indication that rates are going to be soaring to 8%. but i think he lays out a very cogent argument in his letter to say, if we see a bunch of factors line up, inflation, major geopolitical disruption, continued overspending by governments, then, yes, that's absolutely a possibility, if we see that, i think we will likely not, but if we do, you're going to see a real cooloff of people wanting to borrow capital at that point. >> hey, eric, it's tim, thank you for joining us. and first of all, private credit, no question, has exploded higher in terms of not only the size of the market, but also the availability of private correct for what have not been traditional buyers of that credit, but using the same

today/tomorrow dynamic in private credit, today, we know credit spreads are at all-time tights, effectively as high going all the way back to kind of pre-global financial crisis dynamics. tomorrow, do you think they're going to be tighter than this? that's really the dynamic. i understand there can always be problems, we're always waiting for something to happen in commercial real estate, but i guess, from a credit spread perspective, allocating a dollar tomorrow versus the market we have today, what's your outlook for credit spreads? >> i think investors need to be careful. what you've seen is the rise of the private credit manager has happened so rapidly, and frankly, a lot of that capital is coming from the retail investor, not the institutional investor. so, as we've seen a real rise of these evergreen funds, people need to recognize it, as those dollars come in, they need to immediately be deployed. what we see is a real gapping beginning to occur among the quality of credit being done by different managers, depending on how quick they are to deploy.

so, our view is, you're going to continue to see capital flow in, i think that's going to continue to tighten up the spreads, but again, ithink we're going to start to see more gapping around performance of the private credit space. >> so, given your 30,000-foot view, what should the fed be doing this year? people are wishing for three rate cuts, i think be careful what you wish for. what is your sense as the path forward? >> i think they're in a really tricky spot. i think you've seen some irrational behavior by the consumer and that is beginning to ebb off, as we've seen really strong spending. i think one of the things we kind of all underestimated is that rising rates have benefited the big spenders. people are early retirees or higher income earnings largely living in a world where they've got fixed rate debt, if any debt at all and they are ben sne fitting from their investment portfolio. so, i think our view is, we might see rates coming -- cuts coming later in the year. i think theed 0s of odds of us

seeing three of those is low. >> eric, great to speak with you. >> pleasure, thank you. >> eric hirsch, hamilton lane. so, what did you think of jamie dimon's 8% warning? >> yeah, i mean, i think sometimes some of this stuff that jamie dimon says will come out of context. he said a hurricane was coming, i you this that was taken out of context. but there are definitely some forces here that could push inflation up higher. that doesn't necessarily mean in the short-term. i think the con vervveconversat regardless, we're on good footing. we have low unemployment, gdp is still coming in strong. at some point, the question is, does the fed have to cut interest rates? and i think that's different than eventual ly going to 8% isa separate issue. but i think people are starting to realize, the rate cuts may not come as soon as people thought they would. >> 8%, whatever it is it is, but the general gist is, we're in an inflationary world, inflationary

forces will continue to push inflation higher as much as the fed wants to bring it down to 2%. and these are things that have structural, things that are instigated by policy, that would need to be reversed by, you know, legislation, but right now, that is a world we live in. inflationary world, no matter what the fed does. >> yeah, i thought he was talking about structural things. the green economy, or, you know, essentially, you know -- >> nearshoring. >> budget spending. there's deficit spending, there's different dynamics, and i agree with courtney. also, jamie is a guy that is going to give you a full range of scenarios, because i think he's probably right. he is using that same spectrum of 2% to 8%, which is what i heard the range, and so, you know, if you are in the middle around 5%, you're not terribly far from where we are. so, this is a bank that is incredibly diversified. so, jpmorgan, you nome, part of that setup is to point out that jp ppmorgan is an all weather . i think banks still do look really interesting relative to the broader market, at least in terms of where they trade.

so i think 8% would be devastating. let's be clear. and i think if you look at where rates are going and maybe back to our earlier conversation on nvidia and semiconductors, we've had a 50% move in the long end since the end of the year and a lot of that, i think, equities are starting to get queasy. another 30 and the equity market is going to have trouble. >> you just used the term devastated, if we get to jamie's target. let's use a fred that's been used a lot, the long lags of monetary policy. if jamie dimon is being patient, saying 8%, you remember last year at this time, jamie dimon came out with some sort of commentary, during the lows in pandemic, when a lot of his, you know, peers, bank of america and some others were, like, buying treasuries at those yields and he said, we were not doing that. so, you think of the problems that a lot of them had in their held to maturity books, and the like here. who knows how they're doing right now. because rates are higher. when we had regional banks go

under. when we were talking the losses -- the mark to market losses, mind you. so, if we get an environment where, you know, fed funds is going to 6%, 7%, possibly 8%, you think about, okay, all these companies that need to re-fi at some point, all the tighter lending regulations. we spend a lot of time talking about private credit and the like here. there will be some devastation here,okay? it just has to happen. like, i just don't know how you could push off all the negative effects of the pandemic and all the stuff that went into it and then just push it out, right? there's been no -- there's been no, like, other than the handful of banks that went under, that's it? so, i guess my point is, is, like, if jamie dimon, this is kind of his last act, he's readying his bank to be the bank of the world, for all intents and purposes. that's what it would appear to me. >> little games man ship, a little maybe positioning himself for treasury secretary, but it doesn't mean that he's wrong in terms of the things -- oh -- >> you think so? >> come on, mel.

>> really? >> melissa. >> she's in trouble. >> came across -- i feel like i'm in hot water. >> not at all. but i mean, i believe -- i t think -- listen, again, this is not the topic d-- >> under what administration? >> would have to be a biden administration, though a couple months ago, he said some interestingly nice things about president trump and the trump administration, so, i think more so for biden, probably not trump, but he's definitely positioning for the next act. coming up, elon musk has his mind on the moon and mars. the tesla chief talked space instead of evs. what's behind today's pivot? next, the world's top chip maker getting billions from the chips act, but should the biden administration be giving a taiwanese company all this american money? we'll debate that when "fast money" rolls on. this is "fast money" with melissa lee right here on cnbc.

my name is oluseyi and some of my favorite moments throughout my life are watching sports with my dad. now, i work at comcast as part of the team that created our ai highlights technology, which uses ai to detect the major plays in a sports game. giving millions of fans, like my dad and me, new ways of catching up on their favorite sport. welcome back to "fast money." we've got a news alert on some ratings coming out of the ncaa women's basketball final. julia boorstin has the details. >> melissa, the women's championship delivered 18.7

million viewers on abc and espn. peaking at 24 million viewers based on the nielsen fast nationals. that makes the iowa/south carolina game the second-most watched women's sporting event on u.s. tv behind the 2015 women's world cup final. these ratings surging from iowa's last game in thefinal four, which had an average of 14.2 million viewers. now, to put these numbers in context, sunday's telecast was the most watched basketball game, college or pro, men's or women's, since the 2019 ncaa men's championship game, which averaged 19.6 million viewers. and to put it in further context, last year's mlb world series averaged just over 9 million viewers. so, melissa, this may be a tipping point for women's sports. my family was watching. >> what does this change in terms of advertisers and what women's sports are worth from that perspective? >> well, i think it definitely raises awareness of how much people, men and women, of all

ages, are willing -- eager to tune in for women's sports. we've obviously seen some big deals in terms of distribution for major league soccer. i think this really puts a highlight and what's going to happen for women's basketball, with that season and draft coming up. and i think people are going to want to watch these female athletes as they enter the wnba. so, it's going to be certainly a big season for the wnba. >> going to be a lot of little girls out there who have new idols. julia, thank you. julia boorstin. i know you guys watched it. >> absolutely did. i know you're saying that somewhat in jest. >> i know you were. >> if you told me you can only watch one game over the weekend, tonight's men's final or yesterday -- it's the women's game. >> the rakers hockey? >> that's a different thing. >> we don't have enough of a show to do the business of sports here, but part of the problem with collegiate athletics, it's fantastic these

kids are getting paid, especially those who are ringing the register for schools. the women's game has been so great to follow the pathway. interesting to see where they go in the pros. we've been watching south carolina for years, we've been watching uconn for years, iowa for the last few years. caitlin clark and her teammates. the whole story has been extraordinary. much more interesting. is there even a game tonight? >> yes. but again, i mean, given the choice between -- >> i'm kidding. >> yeah. earlier today, in an interview streamed live on x, elon musk predicting that artificial intelligence will be smarter than the smartest human by 2026. musk also said that in the next five years, he thinks humans will be back on the moon and the first unmanned mission will land on the planet mars. one topic he did not hit, though, tesla's robo-taxi. friday, he announced that the robo-taxi will be unveiled

august 8th. shares of tesla up 5% today. and that bit on robo-taxis came after the reuters report was s -- he said that was a lie. >> obviously, the company is not executing particularly well, they're facing a really difficult cycle as it relates to competition, and he's just all over the place. he's running a very important company in spacex. he seems to spend a lot of time on twitter, you know, doing stuff like this. is this accretive to tesla's brand value doing something like that? he's pledged a lot of his tesla shares for twitter, so, he's got a huge financial thing there. banks lent him a lot of money for twitter and they are seemingly customers, or doing business with him with tesla, spacex. he gets in fights with some folks over here and he's got other issues over there. it just seems like at some point, this is a half a trillion market cap company and they probably could use a full-time

ceo. that's probably my two cents there. >> i also think that if you think about last week, it was -- maybe it was the week before, deliveries. oh, hey, look over here, we have robo-taxis. oh, now we're talking about something else. let's look at mars. he's the master of, you know what, there's an issue here, look over here, i have something to distract you. and that's worked for tesla for a long time. there's wa lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. america's $6 billion bet on taiwan semi. inside the move that could reshape one of the world's biggest industries, next. plus, the technical take on a couple of slumping tech tie on thes over the last month. do the charts say a bounce-back is coming, or is there more pain to come? you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right aft ts.erhio-uo and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders

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horsepower keeps you going, but torque gets you going. what happened to my inner child craving love and acceptance? how about you love and accept this? p-p-p-p-powershot! when can i drive? you already are! the dodge hornet r/t... the totally torqued-out crossover. a.i. runs on 2 nanometer. right now, the u.s. makes 0% of these leading-edge chips in america, and tsmc is saying they're going to start making this in america at scale. so, it's good for our economy, but quite frankly, it's good for

our national security. >> that was secretary of commerce gina raimondo on 'quack "squawk on the street" this morning. the biden administration giving t tsmc $6 billion with an additional possibility for $5 billion in loan. intel holds the biggest grant, with $8.5 billion award last month. where should we be giving a non-u.s. company that could be taken over by the chinese, in theory, all these billions? does it matter that this taiwanese company is manufacturing in the u.s. if it is still a taiwanese company that is, in theory, under the thumb of the communist party? >> all good points. another point is, you know, what does this do to u.s./china relations? how do they interpret this? is this an escalation of already strained relationships? i have no idea, but you made a point in one of our calls today, like, why can't a company like intel take this and run with the ball?

is it about indictment on u.s. companies? >> of course it is. you just heard, what we have in the chips. zero. so, i mean, it tells you what they've not been doing. it also, you know, frankly, this project in arizona hasn't gone so well so far, and taiwan semi delayed a lot of it and jumped over to japan and worked on projects over there. taiwan semi is the outsource of the world, so, if we think that, you know, we're getting ex exclusivity here, we're hardly now. this fdi, they are going to invest $65 billion here, and it's a massive, has zych, cer massive commitment by everybody. there's complex dynamics here with china that certainly would make us almost have to respond in a world where china started to make an aggressive act in taiwan. >> here's a simple dynamic. they make 90% ofthe advanced chups and we need those chips. so, if there's any geopolitical dustup with china and taiwan, we would much rather invest the money here, let them train our

workers, gain that know-how, because intel has not been able to do it here. we have not had a successful foundry. so, to me, this seems like an easy $10 billion to kind of journal over to taiwan semi and see what they can do in the desert in arizona. >> i think on top of all the political contentions, there's -- physically, where it needs to be. supply chains shut down, you wouldn't get things from across the world. hopefully that doesn't happen again, but the whole idea of creating things here in the u.s., regardless of the company that owns it, i think does need to happen, regardless of what's happening gio politically. coming up, why our next guest thinks one of this year's biggest winners is looking tired. he has some good news for a key name in tim's blicep acronym. which one? plus, a huge call on crypto. why one insider says the market could double by the end of the year. right after this. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money." stocks little change to kick off the week. the dow and s&p 500 ever so slightly lower, the nasdaq up five points, the second positive

close in a row. apartment income reit corp surging on news that blackstone will take the company private in a $10 billion deal. it's blackstone's largest deal in the multifamily market. generac up. and another down day for djt. shares of trump media falling 8%. it is now down more than 25% since it began trading after the spac merger. we talked about the big changes in big tech's performance, but let's get a technical take. time to go off the charts with chris verrone. chris, we were talking about nvidia and google and the change of fortunes over the past month. what do you make of it? >> i don't think it's putting in a big top, and it's certainly fatigued. made no progress for the better part of the last 30, 40 trading days. watch the 20-day moving average on that. that was basically support all

year. it's now resistance on top of it. $850 is a big lef. if you are under $850, you are talking about a big pull back. there's a big pull back on the chart. and names like apple, this is a stock that has topped. and it's been topping for six, seven, eight months, it is probably oversold. it could certainly bounce from here, but the relative deterioration in apple is two or three quarters under way here. i think any bounce in the short-term, let's call it, maybe it can rally at a 175, you want to be a seller. but i think what's notable is that on the other side, you have these names that haven't participated, starting to now get involved. paypal is a great example here. stock's been in a bear market for three years. it's finally started to turn up. so, it's -- maybe a split tape, i think there's pockets of momentum, and there's areas of fatigue. watch out for the big top formations. >> those two names, nvidia and apple, we know what the market cap is. if you are right, which you probably are, what does that

mean for the broader market? >> you had apple heavy, new low, nvidia heavy. this is a rotational market. where the leadership comes from today in the real estate names, that could be great, despite what rates give. the regional banks, look at pyc breaking out, goldman trades well, morgan stanley. this is a rotational market. i think as the big weights maybe run in place or consolidate. >> p, paypal is the p in blicep. tim is happy with that call. >> look, chris is coming at it from -- he probably refers to funny-mentals. i love the call on paypal, and it's been a stock, if you owned it, it's been a terrible run. terrible underperformance. paypal, first of all, new management team. i think they've expressed urgency around, you know, innovation and some of the checkout stuff, making this platform look, i think, as kind of all-in for -- or one-stop

shop for merchants. i think the cost savings, that whole year of efficiency dynamic is something else for the stock that's very important. the valuation is certainly not demanding, in fact, it's quite cheap, but that's been a problem for two years. i like the story. i like the fact that the charts have been building this base and it doesn't turn overnight. >> it takes time. and what's exciting is, the news hasn't been particularly good there. yet the stock has stopped making new lows. and that's the first thing we look for. names resilience to bad news. watch the 68 level. above 68, this could really get explosive. >> you mentioned regional banks acting well. down 10% from their highs. they are kind of stuck in the mud. we've been talking about rates. we know it kind of foiled the whole bank trade last year. to you like them, just looking at the structurally from the kre in particular? >> i think if anything, they're diagnostic here. there's value in evaluate what the consensus appears to be the weakest part of the market.

and the consensus still believes office real estate and regional banks are where the next shoe will drop again. those are last year's risks. at worst, these things are market performers here. they're not really breaking down in price terms. so, from a diagnostic p persp perspective, as long as they're okay, the market is probably okay, as well. >> chris, we want to ask you about your new etf, based on technical? >> exciting stuff. technical etf. what we really seek to do is what we do in our research, we seek out momentum and strong technicals and relative strength wherever and whenever it's found. a lot of copper stocks in there right now, given the strength we've seen. industrials. financials play a big role right now, as well. so, momentum-oriented and super excited about. >> thank you, chris. >> awesome, congrats. coming up, a way to get in on some private action. a new fund giving investors access to private companies and the huge serge it's seen in just two weeks. more on that next.

plus, could bitcoin double by the end ofthe year? the confident grip crypto call and how gold is doing s itown glis glistening. more "fast money" in two. even space age technology can't prevent accidents at work. so talk to your

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welcome back to "fast money." the destiny tech 100 etf surging 800% since its debut two weeks ago. the new fund ticker dxyz giving investors an opportunity to get into private, high growth tech companies which are usually on accessible to feaventure capita companies. its biggest company right now is spacex, a lot of other companies that you would be interested, but can't have access to. >> access to private companies in an etf. performance speaks for itself. but i'm not saying this is something we've seen before, but things like this historically sort of -- you know, looking at a topping formation when you start to see etfs like this, the levered etfs. great thing, i think it's a totally late cycle type of instrument, in my opinion. >> i kind of felt like you guys

would have that take is that your take, too? >> yeah, i mean, listen. i think -- look how people push themselves out of the risk curve. they are buying ing ing rolexes. why not get exposure to spacex if you can get it? >> it shows how much the risk appetite is out there. people have so much money in cash and they're on the sidelines on the market, but the people that are, they're reaching for things like bi bitcoin, they want nvidia, and i think at some point, you want to see the middle ground here. but it's not ending. >> everyone here is -- is absolutely right in terms of historically when you start to see these products. in terms of the retail investor, if that's who we're targeting, their ability to access private credit, private equity, the dynamics here, during drawdowns in periods where, again, these are generalizations, if the retail trader is quick to kind of trade through emotionally through a bad time and i don't think that's true, but the point is that private credit, private equity, sometimes you're

protected from yourself. you're not going to have liquidity. in an etf, you do. i don't understand how they can have the kind of mismatch in the portfolio to names that don't trade. having said that protecting yourself from yourself when there's terrible liquidity and there's terrible liquidity and things are going on, you han ♪♪ grace didn't believe in magic. but her daughter was happy to prove her wrong. you were made to dream about it for years. we were made to help you book it in minutes. ♪♪

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welcome back to "fast money." by now, you know all about the big solar eclipse here in new york city. we weren't in the path of totality, but that didn't stop one of our traders from getting all geeked up. mr. blicep looking for extra air time, sending in this nice photo, wearing the glasses. >> it's amazing how many people ask you for a look through your glasses. i mean, it's ridiculous. >> order your own glasses! >> they weren't easy to find. i give my wife all the credit. she ordered them for the whole family. it was fun out there. central park was full. it was a new york moment. it was cool. pretty cool. >> time for the final trade. mr. blicep man -- >> yeah, what's cool is what's going on in commodities. if you want one of the best integrated miners, that's rio

tinto. buy commodities when they're running, not when they're cheap. >> courtney? >> we've been talking a lot about artificial intelligence. copper is actually one of those things that is going to be needed in the scheme, so, free month mcmoran is the way to play that. >> dan. >> smh. >> guy? >>grow. >> thanks for watching "fast." "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain, but to teach you and educate you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc newsom or tweet me @jimcramer. we can't get a strong employment number like we did on friday and just forget about it on monday. it's too important to leave in