it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. i'm dominic chu in for frank holland. here is your "five@5." the dow coming off the worst day in a year. looking to get movement to the upside. and fed officials are throwing cold water on the interest rate cuts. the number we could see this year. and key to the rate cut path and market action today is the monthly jobs report. we walk you through the data and

what it could mean for the economic picture. plus, investors rattled by rising oil prices on fresh tensions in the middle east. we'll dig into crude's price action and how much further it could climb. despite the tough start to q2, we are looking for opportunity as we close out the week-long look at the best ideas for the quarter and beyond. it's friday, april 5th, 2024. you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc. good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange." thanks for being with us. we kickoff the hour with the check of the u.s. equity futures after the selloff yesterday. the dow coming off the worst day in a year. right now, we are seeing green on the screen. it will take a lot more green to get back the losses. dow implied higher by 55.

s&p by 14 and nasdaq up 61. it is modest compared to thursday's losses. intensifying the start to the second quarter. the dow and s&p and nasdaq all down between 2% and 3% for the week so far as you can see here. again, great first quarter and tough second quarter start. the drops in the market coming as minneapolis fed president neel kashkari warned that rate cuts are not completely off the table, they could be if needed. >> in march, i jotted down two rate cuts this year. if inflation continues to fall back toward our 2% target. if we continue to see inflation moving sideways, that would make me question whether we need to do the rate cuts at all. there's a lot of momentum in the economy right now. >> i'll show you an intraday chart of the s&p 500 yesterday. you see the moments when the comments from kashkari turned

the markets south. you see that decline right in the closing bell. the dow is off as well as the s&p. down 1.25%. it happened around the 2:00 p.m. eastern hour. investors are turning to the monthly jobs report due out in three hours from now. the expectations are that report will show 200,000 jobs added last muonth. that is down from february of 275,000. if you look at the bond market ahead of the data, yields have been moving higher and drifting higher again. ten-year note at 4.33%. off of where it was yesterday, but taking off from yesterday as well. the two-year note is 4.65%. the 30-year long bond at 4.84%. we are watching oil and

prices for wti breaking above the $86 a barrel yesterday. reports surfacing that israeli embassies are on high alert after retaliation of the missile strike on the consulate in syria earlier in the week. u.s. benchmark wti oil price is $86.54. let's see how thursday's selloff here is carrying in asia and europe with silvia amaro. silvia. >> good morning, dom. let's look at how the asian equity session fared. it is worth remembering that the mainland china is closed today. we saw fewer trading volumes in the asian session. i want to take you to the moves in japan where the nikkei 225 closed down by almost 2%.

here, a lot of speculation if we will see the authorities intervening in the currency market as they monitor closely the yen against the u.s. dollar. back bei back to the action in europe. looking at the major boards with a few pockets of green in the uk and germany yesterday. at this stage, clearly it is negative across the board today. a lot on the minds of investors. it is geopolitics and hawkish comments from the fed officials. that is clear when you look at the sector divide. at this stage, we are looking at travel and leisure stocks at the bottom. down 1.7%. investors are worried about the higher oil prices. for now, back to you, dom. >> silvia with the latest market

updates with the catch up in d with joanna garcia. there is concern that the interest rates and the possibility that they don't go down as quickly as they thought will drive the rest of the market narrative in 2024. what's the take? are interest rates the key to whether or not markets can sustain the path they have been on would say the base case is there is a lot of resilience in the economy. we will have to see more of the economic data and more on the jobs report and more on the cpi in a couple of weeks to understand if this is a trend as you mentioned. what it will continue is if rates don't come down as fast as investors were expecting in 2024, that means there is opportunity for investors in bonds in particular. if those rates stayed higher and

higher for longer, that can mean investors have an opportunity to be taking advantage of that as they have in 2023. that is something we're pointing investors to as not focused on the volatility. >> where are the opportunities? the idea here is that equity markets, despite the selloff, still remain near record highs and the same time folks can collect 4% and 5% from money market funds and u.s. treasuries. are there better places to focus on to get the income generation besides treasuries and money market funds? >> we think of two steps. when you think of bonds against equities, bonds have income and coupons. they support as rates are rising, they support the volatility and prices going down. there is a smoother ride in bonds. to move out from the

short-duration products of six-month products and one-year pr products. we recommend that space because although there may be volatility coming up, the bumps in the road will be smoother in that space against all the way out to the ten-year bond or 20-year bond. there is a lot in the trade. corporations are issuing and their bonds have high income right now. we are recommending credit. we think that something like a bbb credit which is investment grade is the place to be. >> joanna, bbb seems good. they seem to make payments on time. there are folks who want to go out more on the risk spectrum. they want to look at high field. they want to look at junk rated debt. is it still safe to go into those parts of the market that

yield more than 6% or 7% given the credit markets and the economy is doing okay? >> we are positive on high yield because of the resilience in the economy and the strength of the fundamentals every quarter. it is hard to look away from the 12% yield in high yield in the ccc space. it has done really well. it is the best performing category in 2023. it continues to pay the coupon. because the coupon rate is so high in high yield, it cushions the price volatility on the way down. let's remember the case for 2024 is that inflation will meet its fed target at some point and rates will start to soften and come down. we are think we're at peak rates. that means that rates will come down and now you will be benefitting in fixed income from the tailwind of total return.

>> the bond plays from joanna. thank you. now to the other top story of the day that sparked a market selloff. oil prices are extending gains with brent topping $86 a barrel. crude is on track for more than 4% gain this week after iran vows revenge against israel after the two military commanders being killed on the attack of the embassy. it is on high alert after the cia warned iran could retaliate. let's bring in amrita sen to talk about the oil trade. amrita, is this a situation where this could be the catalyst that gets folks above the range of $70 to $90 a barrel they have been talking about for some time

with benchmark crude prices? >> look, i would say the rally has come a little bit too early. we have been calling for $90 plus in the summer based on fundamentals. you highlighted this is is geopolitical risk premium. we actually don't think we are going to get supply losses. both sides see a lot of rhetoric right now and there will be retaliation, but i don't think either side will cross the red line which leads to sustained attacks or that would actually lead to anything in terms of supply losses for oil. it is a little bit of geopolitical risk premium priced in. we think that should start to fade in the coming weeks. we have seen similar situations during the initial gaza conflict

starting. they do tend to fade unless there is an actual supply loss. >> amrita, for the last 10 or 15 years and beyond that, geopolitical risks have seemed to be very short term for the oil markets overall. i think back to the hamas and israel attack that happened back in october. we thought oil prices would spike. they stabilized since then. i think of the top general being killed and what it could have done. things don't seem to boil over as much anymore. is that a concern for oil bulls? >> i don't think so in the sense that the market and bulls have recalibrated the trading strategies. this is not 2011 with the production prices surged and stayed there. during the iranian sanctions in 2013, we had four years above $100 oil prices.

we have had u.s. shale which is a part of the geopolitical risks which fade quickly and now opec plus has a lot of spare capacity as well. having said that, u.s. production growth is slowing and opec plus wants to maintain balance in the market. they are not in the rush to bring barrels back. we are not expecting prices to rally or sustain above $100 which is what some people are calling for. there are mechanisms to get additional supplies to the market. >> amrita, quickly, what is your target price for oil for wti and brent? >> we have been calling for $$8 brent from the start of the year a ands $82 for wti. i have been maintaining that view. i don't see a reason to change that. fundamentals are strong.

like i said, we we could pull b a bit. >> amrita sen, thank you. we have more to come here on "worldwide exchange," including the one word that investors have to know today. plus, appreciate on the heels of the disney proxy fight, blackrock's shake up for larry fink. and janet yellen kicking off the meetings with leaders this morning. the changes she is calling for in beijing. and fresh fears to markets here and abroad. thankfully our steve sedgwick is along the waters of beautiful lake como in italy talking to the brightest minds out there and if the fears are warranted. i'm jealous, steve. >> you should be, dom. it is the plum assignment in the

cnbc organization. i have been doing work and speak tog speakinging to the chief economist at wells fargo and we have been talking about the issues coming up here on "worldwide exchange." at ameriprise financial our advice is personalized based on your goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work.

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welcome back to "worldwide

exchange." we have a market flash on samsung. the company plans to more than double the semiconductor investment in texas to $44 billion. samsung in korean trading was down 1%. we will see how that report shakes out in the coming days. let's check on the other corporate stories are silvana henao. silvana. >> dom, good morning. apple laying off more than 600 employees according to the filing with state officials in california. the impacted workers were located at eight different facilities in santa cla clarita. the move comes weeks after apple canceled a long running project to build an electric self-driving car. shares up are in the pre-market. a small hedge fund is aiming to oust blackrock founder larry

fink as chairman. according to the proxy statement filed with the s.e.c. yesterday, bluebell capital partners has introduced a shareholder resolution that would amend the blackrock to move him to chairman. he had been chairman and ceo since he co-founded it in 1988. the army corps of evening year engineers is looking to reopen a port in baltimore. the army is looking to restore to full capacity by the end of may. >> silvana henao, thank you. the markets are facing hurdles in the form of new rate cut worries and climbing on the middle east tensions.

we have steve sedgwick on the ground in lake como talking to the brightest minds out there at the amborsetti forum. what can you tell us about the macro picture, steve? >> i had a lot of closed door conversations here with the top policymakers from around the world. including the likes of the chief economist at goldman sachs. he he wawas reassuring with the of rate cuts. he thought we would have a cut in march and then five. now he tempered that. he managed those expectations despite the comments from neel kashkari. >> i'm not forecasting. i would be surprised. my baseline is three from the dot plot. none would be surprising under

this forecast. >> really optimistic there from the chief economist from goldman sachs. and lastly, the comments on cnbc.com and i recommend you look at the richard koo comments. he was comparing what volcker had to do compared to what powell has to do. powell has another challenge to kill inflation and not the economy. he says in the u.s. banking system, there are excess reserves 1,700 times larger than pre-lehman. we are talking about $3.2 trillion balance sheet. that is negating the fire power that the fed has had to get inflation down and temper the excess spirits in the market. >> steve, one of the big concerns right now is about whether or not we can see the u.s. economy sustain its path with or without rate cuts.

the expectations have been there and that's what's been driving things to record highs here. how contingent is the global economy right now with the minds in cernobbio? how contingent is the u.s. for the whole story for the global economic growth picture? >> i think that is the question, dom. that is absolutely pivotal. if you asked me that five years ago, iwould not be worried. you had enormous growth from china you had a been growing. now will china grow 5%? 4%? there are concerns about the balance sheet recession that china is having with the real estate crash. they don't want to borrow their way out. the u.s. is the lynch pin.

everyone is watching the federal reserve. the fed is responding as mohamed el-erian said to me earlier that the fed is giving us a play-by-play commentary. we don't want the commentary, but the strategic view. dom, the fed and u.s. economy is pivotal for the global economy now. >> steve sedgwick. thank you. we look forward to your reports throughout the day. st still ahead, we are looking to the tough start to the second quarter. kari firestone is looking at a name at a good price. on monday, "worldwide exchange" is heading to london bringing you the global markets coverage live from the london newsroom there. it starts this monday at 5:00 a.m. eastern time. we'll be right back afteth. r is

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meets bold new thinking. (laughter) at 88 years old, we still see the world with the wonder of new eyes, helping you discover untapped possibilities and relentlessly working with you to make them real. old school grit. new world ideas. morgan stanley. welcome back. turning to janet yellen's trip to china. she was meeting with the vice premier moments ago.

yellen hitting on a key number of topics. megan cassella has more on the story. >> dom, yell een wrapped up the first full day of meetings. she exmphasized the concerns an she called overcapacity a familiar issue wihich intensifid and is it impacting new areas and she is concerned about green technology like ev batteries. she heard from several foreign leaders who share the same view. >> i like to underscore that our concern with overcapacity is not anti-china policy. it is significant for us to mitigate the risks from the inevitable global economic dislocation that will result if

china doesn't adjust its policies. >> yellen told business leaders she recognizes sometimes the co actions by doing business in the cou country. beyond overcapacity and remarks with the vice premier, yellen said it was crucial for the u.s. and china to communicate on areas of concern. a list that includes national security economic measures. dom, the next stop is beijing for two days of meetings with the vice premier. she will be driving home her trade concerns and sharing the issues she heard from the business community. dom. >> megan cassella with the update there. thank you very much. be sure to catch secretary yellen's comments when she sits down with our sara eisen monday

here on "worldwide exchange" to discuss her trip to china. coming up on the show here, a fresh warning from one energy giant. why it is cautioning about the ntueri iy results despite the coind sen oil prices. we're back after this.

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there is more ahead here on "worldwide exchange." stocks looking to shake off the worst day in a year for the dow. top of the agenda for investors today is the monthly jobs report. we walk you out with the critical number and how it could impact the rate path plans. we wrap up the best ideas for the second quarter with kari firestone. > it is friday, april 5th, 2024. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. welcome back. i'm dom chu in for frank holland. let's pick up the check on the stock futures after the selloff yesterday. right now, the futures indicate a bid for the opening bell, but

not by much. dow implied higher 61. s&p higher by 14. the nasdaq implied higher by 57 points. thursday's losses intensifying the tough start to the second quarter. dow and s&p and nasdaq down 2% to 3% on the week so far. we will see what today's gains or drops add to that. the drop by the markets coming as minneapolis fed president neel kashkari that rate cuts on not completely off the table, but could be off the table if necessary. >> in march, i jotted down two rate cuts this year if inflation continues to fall back to the 2% target. if we see inflation moving sideways, that would make me question if we need to do the rate cuts at all. there is a lot of momentum in the economy right now. >> let's check on the bond market on the back of the comments from kashkari and ahead of the monthly jobs report

today. the two-year note yield at 4.66%. the 30-year long bond at 4.49%. we are watching what is happening with oil. wti prices break ago aing abo $86 mark yesterday after iran vowed retaliation over the missile strike on the consulate in syria this week. oil prices are mixed, but stable. wti is $86.54. ice brent crude is $90.78. that is up .10%. we are now three hours away from the march u.s. jobs report. the numbers are expected to show hiring growth slowed last month, but solid. the forecast right now is a call for non-farm payrolls to risen by 200,000 jobs in march which is down from 275,000 jobs in

february. and the last year monthly average increase is 251,000 jobs per month. a modest decrease could reassure the fed that the economy is not running too hot, particularly if a driver of inflation, wage growth, is showing signs of slowing down. let's talk more about this with julia pollak at ziprecruiter he. julia, how much is this jobs report going to shape the story around rates? we are already seeing the rate cut story pushed off further and further into the new year. >> with such uncertainty about which way the world is headed, one report can move markets substantially. that is why all eyes will be on this report for signs of wage growth and inflation. i'm expecting to see a good read. 4.1% or so decline in wage

growth. to see what is happening with job growth. i expect we can get another big blockbuster number. the risk is very much to the upside on this one. >> what is leading you to think there could be upside risk to the number? what are you expecting with the number with the consensus being 200,000 right snow? >> i think it is more like 250,000. the online job postings at z ziprecruiter ticked up. the manufacturing pmi has been strong for two months following 17 months of weakness. the indicators to the economy are turning up after two years of being in the red. there are lots of signs we may be on the cusp of a labor market reheat. >> this is interesting as well. we have been highlighting a lot and even today as well about many of the job cuts happening in places like technology and media and telecom. is it in your opinion fair to

say those particular cuts that we have been reporting on for the better part of the last six-to-nine months are not indicative of the broader economy and the broader economy is doing better than the tech headlines would suggest? >> absolutely. layoffs are low right now, actually. overall in the aggregate, the layoff rate is 1% of workers or fired each month. that is below 2016 and 2017 and 2018 and 2019 of 1.2%. when it comes to the tech fields in particular, there are six industries and bureau of labor stats show that being tech closely. those have stabilized in recent months and starting to look like they're trending upwards. >> i wonder at ziprecruiter is seeing signs that the jobs market is getting stronger or staying still or getting weaker.

>> we are seeing things pretty much stabilize and flat line. there are some signs of life even in industries that were struggling previously. in retail, transportation and warehousing is seeing a comeback. >> to be clear, if you look at the way the job postings are sorting out right now, is there a place where you are seeing more of that activity pick up from your larger clients? >> the big strength is still in those basic fields of healthcare and education. especially in fields that are in-person work. workers are flocking to remote jobs. employers seeking in-person workers are working that much harder. >> julia pollak, thank you very much. see you later on. let's get a check of the top corporate stories with silvana henao.

silvana. >> good morning. meta is pushing back on the attempt by the ftc to amend a 2020 privacy settlement. the agency said meta repeatedly violated the privacy promises and opened an internal motion to modify the settlement that banned from profiting from minors' data. it disclosed two flaws in the kids chat app to the agency and received no complaints from parents. and energy giant shell expects significantly lower results from the liquified natural gas trading business in the first quarter after a strong fourth quarter. it also says the oil trading results are expected to be significantly higher than the final quarter of 2023. the s.e.c. says it will pause the implementation of the new climate disclosure rule while it fights over the

measures legality in court. appeals court last month ordered a temporary stay blocking the rules enforcement. the s.e.c. still believes the law is lawful and within the power to carry out. >> thank you, silvana. coming up, the second quarter may be off to a rough start, but kari firestone has one utility play which is her best under the radar pick. th ne enatamwh "worldwide exchange" returns after this commercial break. (christina) with verizon business unlimited, i get 5g, truly unlimited data, and unlimited hotspot data. so, no matter what, i'm running this kitchen. (vo) make the switch. it's your business. it's your verizon.

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welcome back. the second quarter is off to a rough start with the indices falling 2% to 3%. we have been tapping into the brightest minds to find the best stock picks and some under the radar ones as well. we had victoria greene this week animal and malcolm ethridge as

well as stephanie link and jeff kilburg on as well. we get to cap off the week with kari firestone. the executive chair of aureaus asset management. all kinds of things we can talk about on your resume. >> thank you for having me. >> let's talk about the q2 picture. it has gotten a little dicey the last few days. you are finding opportunities amid the wreckage. >> first of all, thank you so much for having me here. this was not unexpected. when you have a market that goes up 27% from the middle of october to the end of the first quarter, you have to expect there could be some correction.

particularly in names that have just been hyperbolic. we took money off the table in a number of names. not that we don't like them, but they got too big for the portfolio or somewhat overpriced. >> where have you been trimming? >> for example, home depot, sherman williams, hamilton, o'reilly auto. these are great companies, but these stories are predicated on the rates going down. the market has believed interest rates would come down several times this year. the market has a tendency to overreact on macro news that they feel must be embedded in the future. now we're having doubts about that related to whether inflation is coming down fast enough and if stocks have been reacting to that news, you have to take some action. we thought we needed it. >> you trimmed some of the positions. >> we did.

>> you put them into a top pick like what? what's your call for q2? >> nextera energy. in this market, it has upside because the stock got hit hard. there were concerns there were not going to be able to build projects where they had to raise money. it is a utility. it is a sustainable growth component. they own florida power and light. 3.5% yield. very attractive pricing relative to the market. the stock came down and they solved the problems on the debt side. they had a couple of court rulings possiitive for the company. we bought the stock. we bought more of the stock. we think that is very attractive here. >> some people are calling that not just an alternative energy, but a power play as well. what is the under the radar pick out there for the second

quarter? >> charles schwab. it had a tough last year. part of that is related to interest rates. when interest rates are going up, that is good for the firms which have a lot of cash deposited with them. they were asked by their clients to give us that return. you are not giving us enough. cash sorting is what it is called when the depositors say i need more for me, not just you. that has been accomplished. they have gone through cash sorting. td ameritrade has been pushed into schwab. it is one of the dominant players and now interest rates stabilized and they are probly not going down soon. they are adding alternative investments to the platform. if you look at the stock chart, it looks like it is breaking out

on the upside. >> nextera energy. thank you, kari. good to have you here. >> thank you. still head, what one word every investor needs to know and why you need to come to terms with high are for longer. and beginning on monday, "worldwide exchange" is heading across the pond to london to bring you the top stories from our newsroom over there. it all starts this monday at 5:00 a.m. eastern time. we'll be right back after this. trading at schwab is now powered by ameritrade, giving traders even more ways to sharpen their skills with tailored education. get an expanding library filled with new online videos, webcasts, articles, courses, and more - all crafted just for traders. and with guided learning paths stacked with content curated to fit your unique goals, you can spend less time searching and more time learning.

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it's advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for the "wex wrap-up." janet yellen kicking off the trip to china meeting the vice premier early this morning. yellen and the vice premier as you see there. apple laying off 600 employees according to filings in california. the filing did not specify where jobs were cut, but the move comes after apple canceled the project to build a self-driving electric car. blackrock revealing that bluerock is revealing a shareholder amendment to require that the chairman be an independent director. larry fink has been ceo and chairman since he founded

blackrock in 1988. u.s. army corps of engineers is looking to restore full access to the port by the end of may. the channel has been blocked by the cargo ship collapsing the francis scott key bridge. and the gamestop coo exits the company. his position will be absorbed by other key positions. the big event of the day is the jobs report out at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. it is another busy day of fed official speeches. we hear from susan collins and tom barkin and michelle bowman today. we are checking our futures

today with the dow implied higher by 63 points and s&p by 15. for more, let's bring in jason katz at ubs. jason, this is very much a day about the jobs number. do you feel the economic narrative in america can change significantly with what happens today at 8:30 a.m.? >> the porridge his to be just right, dom. if we have an extreme number on either ide, you will have a binary reaction. that is not our expectation whatsoever. i think good news will be construed as it should be as good news. >> if good news is good news and bad news is bad news, what do we make of the recent market action? does it give you some pause? the volatility? >> the higher for longer regime is because the economy is on solid footing.

sometimes we overcomplicate things. in the last few days, the market has been able to withstand higher rates. to me, it is counterintuitive to be spooked by economic resiliency. this sticky inflation is a result of a strong economy. what does this portend? a q1 earnings period that beats expectation. >> what is your word of the day? what is it and why? >> coiled. small and mid-cap stocks are coil ed springs. they have been volatile, but they have the most upside. the rotation has had fits and starts, but the cohort is largely left out in the cold. you are looking at smid of 35%. emerging markets up 30%. when you get the first rate cut, you will see a visceral rea

reaction. they borrowed the most short-term money. >> sector wise, small and mid-cap. coiled springs to the upside. is it cyclical or technology and media and telecom stocks? >> the latter of what you said. the technology trade is not dead. these are secular trends that are here to stay. those shares are fully and fairly valued. you look at areas like industrials or healthcare. think about industrials for a moment. a renaissance is happening. it is a national security issue. politicians came around to the fact we can't be dependent on the enemies for semis. what about relying on our enemies for food? the global supply chain is creating an immense urgency for

self sufficiency. it is the perfect setup for st industrials. >> jason katz, thank you very much. we appreciate it. have a nice weekend. >> thank you, dom. let's check on the futures right now ahead of the jobs number. dow implied higher by 50 points at this stage. s&p higher by 16. the nasdaq up by 65 or 66 points. interest rates. ten-year note at 4.34.33% right now. keep it right here. we have more market coverage coming up next. "squawk box" is coming up. have a great weekend. "worldwide exchange" is coming up on monday from london.

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good morning. stock futures pointing to a slight rebound. this is after yesterday's selloff. we will show you what's moving. the fed's neel kashkari spooking the markets yesterday. his zero cut comments should not come as a surprise of those who have listened to roger ferguson. and disney winning the proxy battle against nelson peltz. we talk to michael froman coming up. it is jobs friday.

it is april 5th, 2024. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin. joe is out today. as andrew was talking about, yesterday was a big selloff. the dow with the worst day since march last year. more than a year ago. this morning, you are seeing some green arrows. at least at this point. the dow futures indicated up 63. s&p futures up 15. nasdaq indicated up 65 points. right now, we're on pace for our worst week since march 2023 for the dow. the s&p is on pace for its worst week since october of last year. a lot of this coming, andrew,

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