but really, come friday, nonfarm payrolls, that's what's going to happen. >> lots of fed speak, too, but i wonder how much that matters when really everybody's awaiting that jobs number. >> yeah. we'll have to see. in the meantime, that's going to do it for us here at "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. powell's predicament. the fed seemingly misses surge inflation on the way up, and are they going to get it wrong on the way down? the market impact of the chair's next move straight ahead. plus, an ugly day for ulta shares, tumbling over 15% as the company warns of demand slowing in the first quarter. is this yet another sign the consumer is nearly tapped out? we'll debate that. and later, tuning in. why spotify is surging. ford's revved up quarter. and what happens at disney now that bob iger won the big proxy battle against nelson peltz?

i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, karen finerman, dan nathan, and guy adami. we start off with the fed chair powell's balancing act. the central bank chief towing the line between spurring economic growth by cutting rates and tamping down on persistently high inflation. earlier today, powell suggested he is not yet ready to say that battle's been won. >> on inflation, it is too soon to say whether the recent readings represent more than just a bump. we do not expect that it will be appropriate to lower our policy rate until we have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2%. >> the fed's key inflation gauge has now been above its target 2% rate for three straight years. it's not exactly as transitory as powell originally said it would be, and that sparks our question tonight, will the fed be as wrong on inflation on the way down as it was on the way up? some other, you know, interesting things that he said today, he thought monetary policy was tight.

i thought that was interesting, because i don't know what -- >> i don't know what it meant. i don't know through what lens he's looking through to come up with that. can they be as wrong -- well, this was a fed that said we're not even thinking about thinking about thinking about cutting rates way back in the day, if you recall, raising rates, excuse me, back in the day. that proved to be completely wrong, so, i don't think it's possible to be that wrong again. with that said, i'll give him credit. i think he's trying to tow the line here, and i think he understands that inflation is a problem. forget about gold for a second, which is its own animal, but through the lens of soft commodity, we brought up the dba, i get it, a lot of it is cocoa. that's been off to the races. fcx. copper's been off to the races. that's making a three-year high. and obviously energy and the refiners continue to grind higher, so, the inflation battle's far from over. >> yeah. tim? what do you think? >> it's interesting, because interest rates an the dollar are struggling with what the fed's got to do, but everything is telling you that the fed has inflation still to deal with and

there's nothing they can do. so, as guy said, look at the commodities. look at the crv, whatever measure of the commodity research bureau indices. there's a number of them you want to read. no matter what you look at, we're somewhere between 50% and 65% above where we were p pre-covid in terms of core commodities. gold, that's all we talk about, but look at all the -- look, the kind of world is coming to an end plays, and all the folks that have been saying it's going to happen, you know, that's the place that at least i think you're seeing a lot of really interesting price action. so you if you look at fed fun futures, dan mentioned this yesterday, it's pretty much priced out. 523 in june, 517 in july. and you're around 507 in august. so, that kind of tells you what the market is saying, in terms of the fed that really can't cut. we've said no cuts, i think guy said yesterday, not a bad thing for the economy if that's truly the state of where we are, but right now, i'm not sure, back to your question, are they going to screw it up on the way down?

i don't think they can. and if we -- >> you don't think they can, they cannot afford to, as opposed to they cannot? >> that's a good point. i think they can probably do it, but they're better off erring on the side of making sure that the inflation genie gets as much stuffed back into that bottle as they can. this is a genie they started way back in 2008, if not probably, you know, somewhere in 2002 or 2003. >> and he talked about how detrimental if inflation -- it wasn't just a bump and it was a more sustainable rise. >> it's become imbedded in wages. we're going to get a read on that friday morning. i think the most important thing that's probably happened in the last, call it four months or so, mid-december, the fed said they were expecting 1.4% gdp growth for 2024 and in mid-march, nay said they are expecting 2.1%, which really kind of signaled to some degree how they've changed their views about the strength of the economy and what they might do with policy to counterbalance what's a weakening economy, because you can say, okay, the inflationary

forces, the higher dollar, a higher er commodities, higher interest rates, are going to weigh on growth or the potential for earnings growth, in the near term, but to me, i don't think there's any rush to do anything on the policy front right now, as long as things seem this stable. and we're going to get earnings, and we're going to get q-2 guidance here, and that might really reinforce all of this sort of stuff, and so, to tim's point about, 5.23, what's being priced in by fed fund futures, that might start ticking up. i mean, you might see cuts go out the window and then you might say, when do they have to start raising? but if gdp growth is accelerating, then that's fine, i guess, because look what's happened with rates over the last, you know, in the stock market over the last, what, year and a half, they've kind of moved together pretty well. >> i agree with all the gentlemen here. i think that -- >> you think she knows our names? >> i went with jgentlemen, okay?

>> that's a stretch. >> if you weigh the balance of doing one thing or the other, the downside of going too early so -- i mean -- >> outweighs. >> so far outweighs a, maybe we should have done it a quarter or two, i mean, a quarter, three months ago, or so. i don't understand why there's -- i don't know that he feels the need to talk somewhat dovish sometimes. i don't understand why they would need to do this. i think that, to have made the mistake on the way up, why would you, you know, get out potentially not when the job is done? it doesn't make sense to men. >> do you think that -- do you think there is a mind game that the fed is playing with the markets in terms of trotting out all the fed speakers, saying, we should -- >> can i add one thing? >> i don't know what the game plan is. >> this morning, was it bostic that was very, i mean -- >> he said one, basically. >> maybe, right. >> so -- >> can i make one point here? if you look back over the last 25 years, think back to '01, think about '07-08, and think

about 2020, it was actually an unforseen sort of thing. those were the three worst market periods that we've had, and they also corresponded with the fed basically getting about as easy as you can possibly get, and so, i don't have an answer, and i hope that nothing, like, remotely happens, anything similar, but at some point, it's the thick ng that you can't see. we spend a lot of time talking about this number and that number and what this could mean and that, and again, we don't know, but there does seem to be always something lurking out there that causes them to make a big move lower, and obviously they stair-step it higher, so, i think the potential for a mistake, you know what i mean, to me, probably lies exactly what karen just said. why go early? >> if it was as simple as calling markets, too, if you came into '24, what were the biggest, i go back to the bank of america fund managers survey that i participate, one of the questions is, what are the things that you are most worried

about? and they are usually big macro kind of tail risks. geopolitical is the part of this that i think is what a lot of the asset classes are telling us, and it's not just u.s./china, it's not russia/ukraine, it's all of it. it's xenophobia, it's essentially a pull-back, and onshoring, and it's certainly a political cycle, not just in this country, but the one in this country as it is for almost everything else both in terms of the markets and in terms of sectors and in terms of companies. it's going to be a lot bigger and a lot more powerful. and i think that's what a lot of the market dynamic is telling you right now and we're not going to know. >> you mentioned ukraine, you mentioned china, but yes, u.s./u.s. in terms of the election, but also how the elections will then impact geopolitics, so, you have two different things to handicap, and that's even harder to do. >> and you have the political weight or the pressures being put on. we talked about it a couple weeks ago, senator warren and senator sanders writing him an open letter, basically saying, you have to cut rates and you

have to do it in a meaningful way very quickly because people are hurting with rates this high. but that might be politically expedient, it's the worst thing they could do, because the people they're trying to help are the ones that are hurt the most by that, because inflation is what's killing people. and if you think, what are you talking about -- the reason why -- if all the economy was was the stock market, biden's approval rating would be 75%, 8 5%, or higher. it's historically low. it's people paying too much for things and they're feeling the pain. >> for more on the inflation battle, let's bring in cnbc's rick santelli, at the cme in chicago. so, rick, is powell getting inflation wrong or the way down? >> you know, this group, whether it's tim, dan, guy, you guys nailed it in the opening, and karen, i'll answer your question, why? why does he err on sounding like a dove? and everybody knows he does, he's painted himself into the

corner, all by himself. why? to goose stocks. they're playing this game. and i'm not saying it's a bad game. maybe that's exactly what fed guidance should be. to stroke the markets not to get too ugly and keep everything alive as thoo what the fed may may not do. what i heard today finally the chairman is the same thing that you've been discussing. it's not quite soup yet. and if he goes early and ends up with a '70s style resurgence in inflation, all is lost. and i think their credibility is already in question with the $7 trillion plus balance sheet, there's not much room for error. how much could they stimulate if they get it wrong? and i'll go in one direction here, just the state of california alone, what they're mandating with bottom of the food chain, trucking, how they're trying to upend that industry, that's not going to end well. us old people remember beta versus vhs, whether it's fossil fuel or ev, we're going to end

up with both standards being more expensive, because nobody's ready, and just look to europe. they were in for a pence, in for a pound, they're trying to extricate themselves from all of these ev mandates. that alone will make sure inflation isn't going to be slain. it's going to bounce up again. i just don't see how it can't. >> i think that's interesting, you're talking about policy-induced inflation, and we've talked about it with nearshoring, but obviously what we saw in terms of -- you mentioned california, the wage increases, that's going to hurt, and we're going to start hearing about that in the next quarter, but i wanted to discuss friday's jobs report. everybody is looking to that, but you see those numbers are complicated because of the immigration factor. >> yes. you know, oh, my goodness, just consider this. you know, powell today was talking about climate change. why? because he sees he's getting painted into another corner, to be an active person entity with

regard in what happens with climate change. but he's going to be even more in the corner with things like immigration, because if you consider the fact that the demographics of the country, that good immigration is highly needed. and all of a sudden, in an election year, in the last three, four weeks, when i see the two biggest planks going into november, the economy, which is really inflation, and the other one that keeps showing up is immigration. but the problem, saying immigration is good is a great thing, but there's two types of immigration. there's the good immigration, where we have good records, and we have some quality skills coming in, then there's the type of immigration on the southern border, that's a huge dynamic in the election. draw your own conclusions, but when i see leisure and hospitality and i see those jobs moving up and i see the immigration story, i get it. but what, maybe 10% of immigration is going to go into that mode, the one on the southern border now? but the other 80%, 90%, what's

the cost-benefit to society? how much is it costing to do what we're doing on the border? how much is it kogsing when we look at the drugs coming in? how much is it costing for the social services and the entitlements, which, by the way, are fueling the very gdp that the fed chairman has to contend with when he's decide what to do with rates. very complicated. immigration is going to be a real hot button if the fed keeps talking about it in terms of jobs when it's such a big platform going into november. >> hey, rick, love the passion, and agree, and, in fact, immigration and the border is now, i think, a bipartisan issue and something, you know, we all think about, and i'll tell you, i go right back to you who are the guru of bonds, the guy that stands in the pits every day. where are rates going? ultimately, the two-year trend on the long end is higher. everything that people want to believe in terms of what the fed and what they have to cut for tells you they should go lower,

and is it a little bit of both and sequencing on that, please? if you can. >> i think a little bit of both is the answer. hence, it's a steepening yield curve trade in my opinion. i think the short end is going to be massaged ultimately -- ultimately lower. it was the one maturity yesterday that didn't close above its high yield closes for 2024, but i think the long end is going to have to contend with so much. i mean, just on the deficit side alone. some of these numbers are so underestimated, what's coming down the pipe with regard to deficits and issuance that i ultimately think the long end, we could call it, you know, that anecdotal vigilantes, but in the end, it is unsustainable. einhorn said it today. all the big institutional traders recognize what's going on, and i think it's going to be the unraveling of the longer maturities and the steepening of the yield curve and the presence of stagflation that's all going to be grouped together.

>> rick, always great to get your take. appreciate the time. rick santelli. >> thank you. >> karen, what's your trade on tlt these days? >> well, i covered some. it's moved a lot. though, you know, listening to rick, i was just thinking about it as he was talking, all right, well, do i want to be completely out? no. but you know, we could get a little bit of cool data, it would move a lot. i don't think -- i think more likely to see hot data, so, that would -- that would vote for staying in it, but now i have a half position, so, i don't know what i wish for. >> when karen is talking about staying in it, she's saying short it. >> yes, yes. >> it's important for people to understand that. >> correct. i think -- that trade says yields will go higher. >> yeah. >> which i happen to agree with, i know tim's been in that camp for awhile. but that's not what the market is prepared for, i don't believe. yields, ten-year was 4.35, what does that mean for the broader market? i don't think it's particularly encouraging. >> look at yesterday and the s&p

500. down a little less than 1% today. we didn't get a heck of a lot of that back. and if you look at that uptrend that's been in place from the october lows, maybe they can throw that up here. yesterday's gap lower in the close was below that uptrend that's been in place since late october. that's 28%, 29% off of those lows. and just from a technical perspective, if you think that the ten-year yield, if that number at 4.5 or something is the one that, like, alarm bells go off a little bit, i mean, we are so much higher in the s&p than where we were the last time that we were at 4.5% on the ten-year, if you go back to september or so. so, at some point, somebody's going to care about some of this stuff when it all comes together with a dollar that's pretty stuck here at higher levels, crude oil is in the mid 80s. yields where, you know, it seems that the pressure is higher, based on what's going on whether it be reshoring, china reawakening, just some things going on in the soft commodities. i get it. the only piece of the puzzle

here that doesn't make a lot of sense right now is the s&p 500, 5, 200. paramount soaring 17% today on the news that the board will enter exclusive merger talks with media company skydance. that after apollo global offered $26 billion in cash for the entire company over the weekend. for more, let's bring in rich greenfield. great to have you with us. >> this is wild, melissa. this is really wild. >> yeah, why? why? >> well, because supposedly there is a $26 billion bid, you would presume that would be an all cash bid for the company, yet if it was a cash bid, why was it turned down in favor of essentially a merger of skydance into paramount? it doesn't make a lot of sense. because if you are thinking about this from a paramount shareholder standpoint, remember, what happened to paramount this morning? if you pull up the chart and look at paramount, the stock was down this morning, baurz

shareholders were looking at a transaction that actually was immediately good for sherry redstone and the national owners, because it was going to take them out, but it was going to dilute paramount, by including skydancer, or ammergi skydance into paramount. the stock was down on that transaction, the exclusive negotiating decision they made, the stock was down. then the stock soared on a bid that wasn't accepted, assuming it was real and fully financed. that -- they excluded that bid, so, everyone is just trying to understand -- investors are sort of baffled. how could you say no to a cash bid and pursue this alternative transaction for the next 30 days? something doesn't add up. it just doesn't make sense, to me, or to any of the investors i'm talking to. >> what is your intuition? you've been following the company for a long time. what do you think is going on, you know, behind the scenes, and in particular, with sherry redstone? >> look, there's no doubt that they've made it pretty clear the

redstone family made it clear they want out. they want to monetize their stake, i think they see the challenges facing the media universe, and they're certainly looking for the best option. it's surprising that if this apollo bid was real, it's surprising they didn't take it. i'm literal little -- i can't really give you a good answer of why you would say no, unless it isn't as, you know, again, it wasn't -- we don't have the what were they paying per share, all we have is this sort of $26 billion enterprise that was in "the wall street journal" earlier today. maybe there's more to this than meets the eye. i don't know. obviously, there's regulatory approval. you would need, because apollo, obviously, already owns tv stations. not that i think it's a huge problem, but you would need fcc approval for that transaction. i don't think the skydance merger would have any issues whatsoever from a regulatory standpoint. >> hey, rich, it's tim. help us understand the sum of the parts of this. and because i think it feeds into other plays within media

right now. now, we all know in media, sum of the parts doesn't add up to what the holding company is worth. time warner, one of the great examples of just destroyed value. but apollo started with an $11 billion bid for just tv and studio. so, that gives you some baseline, and yet the stock, in terms of market cap, at the end of that day, even for a week following, traded around $8.5 billion. so, what should this tell investors who are looking at media assets, understand that private equity is looking at media assets and understanding there could be some, you know, some come to value moment here for some of this stuff? >> well, tim, i got to correct you, just to be clear, it was -- when you say $11 billion, that was for the studio, but remember, paramount, while its market cap was $8 billion, its enterprise value was $20 billion. it's got $12, $13 billion of debt. they were only buying a piece of paramount. so, it makes sense why the stock didn't react strongly on that,

just acquisition of the studio, obviousdly, there's taxes to pay. and then you're left with sort of a, you know, very challenged tv business, if you sell off the -- sort of the crown jewel, which is not just the film studio, but selling the tv studio? that is really a valuable asset that was being sold in that transaction, so i can understand, if i'm sitting in their shoes, i can understand why i don't want to sell the studio, first of all, it doesn't get me cash, it just gets the company in better position, but it doesn't cash out national amusements. the shift from buying just a piece of the company, assuming this $26 billion bid is real, that's where you start to -- that's where the real head scratcher comes in, like, how could you say no to that? if that offer came in over the weekend, why would that not be more attractive than pursuing a pretty complicated transaction that's probably going to end up with a lot of litigation, because you're basically only taking out for cash one shareholder. >> rich, good to see you, thank

you. rich greenfield. >> thanks for having me. >> don't miss cnbc's interview with bob iger tomorrow morning at 9:00 a.m. he will sit down with david faber. didn't even talk to rich about that, but of course, disney is also on the docket here for discussion. >> 100%. we talked about this, i think you stay long into earnings on the eighth or may or so. but just going back to paramount real quick. the price action was interesting. rich mentioned it, $11.40 at open, and then obviously at the end of the day, it was off to the races. it traded north of 60 million shares, so, this might be one of those days where, you know, if you are looking to trade from the long side, you might have gotten capitulation today. >> so, this -- it's such an odd situation that we're in. i wouldn't be surprised if it winds up in delaware court, because how can that one shareholder, but they are -- there is control -- >> right. >> so this can't be the first time this has happened but if i were powell, i would put a lot

of pressure on them. coming up, beauty buzz kill. ulta's ugliest day since 2020, after the company warned of slower growth this year. what it might take for this stock to make up the numbers, next. don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two. this is "fast money" with melissa lee right here on cnbc. were you worried the wedding would be too much? nahhhh... (inner monologue) another destination wedding?? why can't they use my backyard!!

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welcome back to "fast money." ugly day for ulta beauty, as the stock sees its worst session since the start of the pandemic. the company's ceo warning that g demand would cool off in 2024, and it would be bigger and earlier than expected. so, what will it take for ulta to glow up after today's drop? the way they talked about the slowdown, it was like every category, every price point, across all segments, they saw softness. >> well, some more than others. and they had some explanation. it started off perfectly great. thanks for having us here at the conference, and a little bit of chitchat and then, oh, yeah, we're seeing this big slowdown, and that sort of when, yeah, things just threw up, and a lot

of that throwup got ons that lauder, i'm sorry. this things they called out, prestige was weak. they talked about needing to go up against sephora and do a little better there. they talked about hair care comps last year, dyson was huge and that was a big thing, and people don't buy another one, because they're so expensive, although they had to know that was coming. the interesting thing is that they said, we're going to be at the low end of our first quarter guidance. this stock was reacting like it was a failed phase three tlrial. i didn't less to my three-day rule, and it was down, like, 13%, oim like, this is crazy. >> you bought more? >> i bought more. and it was down another 2% i'm like, all right, i got to wait a little bit more. because now they -- they have a little bit of a credibility problem. i think. and so, they had -- the multiple has come down already,

considerably, but it's -- that's not great. it really was not great. and some of the explanations about, all right, if you have some revenue growth in the second half which they talked about, how come you're not going to get to a higher margin? i don't know if this was being conservative after really sort of laying an egg here -- they didn't have a great reason why they wouldn't get to -- maybe promotional, so, that could be it, so -- it was -- >> the contrast, though, with se forma, how lvmh talked about the sephora business -- sephora was great. >> it was great. >> for lvmh. so, are they losing out to sephora at this point? >> well, i think the competitive landscape is brutal, right? and it's getting to a place where the distribution channels are part of the exciting -- there's different tailwinds going on here, and i think it's innovation in beauty, which, you know, i'm sure you ladies can talk about, it's obvious. but i think you get to a place where you look at the sector and you look at the places where you've had extraordinary growth

and ulta, you know, three weeks ago, kind of told you that. then, this data point, which, i think, is since that quarter. part of what scary for the sector is, it sounds like this is since they last reported. >> february and march. >> fresh data point. >> for a quarter that's two-thirds of the way over. they end in april, yeah. >> huh. >> that's a good point. >> so, it isn't good. now, the e in blicep, which is estee lauder, i think they have this priced in two years, you know, a year and a half ago. this is part of the story there. that's the difference between ulta and estee lauder to me. it's great that the blicep comes up every day. >> i think the e in blicep that has a china problem that ulta doesn't have. >> yes. >> right. ulta is much more u.s.-centric. >> travel retail. you don't think ulta's exposed to that? >> estee lauder, it is. >> yeah, for sure. a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. turn up the volume. spotify hitting its highest

levels in more than two years today. the headlines that have investors singing along with the stock, next. plus, ford keeps on trucking. the automaker posting a monster increase in ev sales. the eye-popping numbers that just might put the charge back in the electric auto trade. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. ies. (vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts. personalized financial advice from ameriprise can do more than help you reach your goals. i can make this work. it can help you reach them with confidence. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. ameriprise financial. advice worth talking about.

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welcome back to "fast money." spotify surging more than 8% after bloomberg reported the company plans to hike subscription prices this year. prices in five countries, including the u.s., will go up by one to two bucks by the end of april. the one in the u.s. will come later this year. spotify also reportedly planning to roll out a basic subscription that excludes audio books for current premium plan prices of 11 bucks a month. this is the second price increase in the past year. >> yeah, remember we used to spend a lot of time with netflix on their price increases and the stock would go down and we would get nervous about churn andthe like and the stock goes up 5% when they announce this. the second one, like you said. again, if you look at netflix and their gross margins, you look at a spotify, kind of

similar sort of businesses below 30%, you look at price increases and you say, well, that's good margin stuff there. if you can continue to do that, add other products, so, to me, it makes sense why the stock's going up, especially when you look at expectations for revenue growth and earnings growth. if it becomes a story where you can start pricing in higher margins, i think it will kind of grow into that valuation. >> didn't you say that netflix should buy spotify? >> 100%. >> still think that? >> it's too big of a deal now. it would be 20% right here of just their market cap, of netflix, but it makes sense for them to go vertical. they would bring the margins up for spotify. >> let's talk about what we all use on the desk. guy's a big -- i'm apple music. >> sure are you. >> and the question i pose to the desk, we never give apple credit for apple music and what it might mean in terms of a revenue source, but we're rewarding spotify, a xi that for a long time wasn't profitable

and now that has a market cap of $60 billion. >> it's not lumped into services? >> i don't know. it is, but i mean, it's growing and i think -- >> is it? >> well, maybe it's just because i think it's a much easier service to use, especially with my sonos, that's another story. but i feel as if there are two emerging players in this game. and it reminds me a little bit of the streaming world, as dan is pointing out. guy's spotify list is a daily conversation on this desk. >> it's ridiculous. >> it's open to the public. >> it's ridiculous. what kind of person puts a list together of 100 songs? >> let's chair if i a few things, we have time. it's 860 songs. >> even more ridiculous. >> why is that ridiculous? >> eight times more ridiculous. >> what's the playing time? >> over 60 hours, i believe. >> do you have to -- >> why bother putting together a list if you're going to have 800 songs? >> marshall tucker -- >> what's not on the list?

that's a much shorter list. >> this is a whole other show that nobody will watch. >> let's put the list on the show. coming up, green light capital giving the green light to a couple of inve vestments a this year's sohn's conference. plus, ford motoring higher today as it seems to be gaining ground in the ev race. the eye-popping numbers and where this game is headed next, right after this. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this. to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real.

welcome back to "fast money." stocks ending the day just about flat. the dow on a three-day losing streak, but down just one tenth of a percent today. the s&p gaining five points and the nasdaq up one quarter percent. intel dropping more than 7% after revealing a $7 billion operating loss for its foundry business in 2023. taiwan semi recovering from early losses after the chip maker said it suffered no critical damage from a 7.4 magnitude earthquake that hit the region. shares of levi strauss higher after hours. the company saying it is seeing strength in loose-fitting jeans

for men and women. guy, they're back. >> stop it. >> do not miss the cnbc exclusive interview with president and ceo michelle gass, tonight, 7:00 p.m. eastern time on "last call." meantime, first quarter sales numbers for ford driving the stock higher today. shares up nearly 3%. let's go to phil lell bebeau wil the details. >> melissa, this is validation for some of the moves ford made when it comes to hybrids and evs. take a look at shares of ford, as you mentioned, up 3% today after the company reported q-1 sales increasing 6.8%. that's q-1 sales here in the united states. in terms of the breakdown, i.c.e. vehicles up 2.6%. look at the growth in hybrids and in evs. up 42% and 86% respectively, and when you look at the ev market, ford is now into the third position after tesla, which still dominates with more than 50% market share. there you see hyundai/kia.

genesis would be in there, as well. and then you see ford. and that is a testament to the decision that was made in february to slash prices on the mustang mach-e. we'll find out what the impact is in terms of how much more it weighs on the bottom line. the greater the losses we might expect within the ev division in a couple of weeks when they report their earnings, but the bottom line is this -- consumers responded. and the mustang mach-e, the third or fourth best-selling ev in the quarter for all, for the entire industry. and that's a testament, again, to the demand that is out there, when you slash prices and put it at a price point where people are saying, yeah, i'm interested in this. quickly take a look at shares of ford, hyundai, tesla. you can see what kind of quarter it's been. tesla, not a surprise there. evs, that market share, melissa, really hasn't changed. 7.1%. by the way, hybrids, 10.1% market share. it continues to grow. and the domination there is with

toyota. we'll have more on that to tomorrow, a breakdown on who is leading when it comes to hybrids. >> on that chart, it looked like hyundai was the market share loser where ford was gaining the share? tesla looked kind of stable. >> hyundai gained some market share within evs, they went up slightly, and you see just a little bit of erosion for tesla. really, where ford was gaining it was basically from everybody else, but they jumped from, like, 4.5% market share up to 7.5%. >> wow. big jump. phil, thank you. phil lebeau. >> you bet. >> we asked the question the other night when we were talking about tesla, in the context of making decisions about the ev market, for seeing the drop in demand, or the softening demand for evs and we asked, who got it right? can we say now that ford got it right? >> well, it's still an internal combustion engine story. did they get it right? they're more right than they've been. i think they turned the corner.

buff the question is in terms of the stock, what do you do here? the report on april 24th, the momentum is behind you now. there's a good chance you could sort of lef state up to the level we saw last july of about 15 bucks or so. and then, i think, all bets are off once earnings is released, but i think you ride the wave right now. >> i think there's a ton of momentum. and we've already seen it and we've seen ford underperform m by 30% over the last six months. it's just -- it's fascinating that we can be having a conversation, did ford get it right, when, in fact, we've -- we've brought them up over and over own the wlast, you know, many years, but even over the last six, nine months, where the company has come forward, said, we have some work to do, we're going to make adjustments in terms of our efficiencies. but there's no question in terms of the appeal of the f-150 and where that appeal exists in ev land, so, i'm long ford, i'm long gm, i'm longer gm, but i think ford can outperform. coming up, a check on some recent ipos, all of which posted losses today. what the options market is

saying about where these big movers could be headed next. plus, david einhorn saying value investing is dead. where he's putting his money, and why, right after this. man, we really need to upgrade your trash talk. ♪♪ nice shot... shot... taker. who programmed you?! i'll see you tomorrow. the future isn't scary, not investing in it is. 100 innovative companies, one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com. it's payback time. all these years, you've worked hard. you fixed it. you looked after it. maybe it's time for your home to start taking care of you? investment objectives, risks, charges expenses if you're 62 or older and own your home, a reverse mortgage can put more money in your pocket by eliminating your monthly mortgage payments,

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we own a lot more gold than just the gld, we own physical bars, as well. gold is a very large position for us. >> why have you made it so large? >> well, because i think there's a problem with the overall monetary and fiscal policies of the country. and both policies are systemically too loose. i think the deficits are ultimately a real problem, and i think that this is a way to hedge the risk of something, you know, not so good happening. >> that was david einhorn speaking on "power lunch." he's doubling down on his gold position against a potential market downturn. gold a record high in today's session, settling above $2,300. wow. >> so, when you hear people like him say it and stan druc

druckenmiller say it, it's not just hacks like me, tim is not a hack -- >> well. >> they're all saying the same thing. >> you have never liked gold. >> no, i've never liked gold. it's been interesting, though, to see, you know, some of the sort of gold luster was taken away by bitcoin, which actually, in this last little run, has had, you know, in the last, i don't know, just week, a terrible run. i would have thought it would have done better in this scenario. we'll see if digital gold ultimately has a place. >> right. >> well, i'd say whatever the percentage is, but i bet it's north of 25 and less than 50 percentage of fwit coin interest is for all the same reasons people want to own gold. what's interesting about the gold move is that it's come without really any real institutional support outside of the smart guys like mr. einhorn and folks. and i think that's part of the story now. you can look at gold flows, by the way. you can see where they go -- where they are coming from and going to, and i just feel like this trade, i understand

historically, this is the wrong time to buy gold, except for the fact i think this time is different. >> central banks buying at the expense of treasuries, instead of -- >> central bank's diversifying, for sure, and there's no question, some of the biggest central banks in the world, and some of the smallest, as well. i just feel like this is a few that people are expecting some kind of change, butthat political upheaval is something that people are fearful. >> you guys have spent a lot of time over the last year or two talking about central banks buying gold. and then you see this move that we've seen in bitcoin, you know, it nearly doubled from its lows just a few months ago, and you say to yourself, you look at the market cap of that, and you think about what tim just said, for most of the reasons that people are buying bitcoin are not too different than gold, you say to yourself, okay, you'd love to see a technical pull back in bitcoin, maybe back towards $50,000. there seems to be an air pocket

at 60,000. and then you can diversify away from your calamity trade. that's really what you're doing, in a way. bitcoin is interesting, but at much lower levels below 60,000. coming up, some recent debuts helping defrost the ipo market. how the names have been holding up, including the big swings out of trump's media stock. how options traders are handling all the action. refa meyisext. power e*trade's easy to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley.

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welcome back. the recent freeze on the ipo market seems to be thawing out. a.i. place astera labs nearly doubling since hitting the market. reddit, another big name making a splash since its debut. the social media stock up nearly 40% since going public. trump's media company continuing its wild swings, down 5% today, now in the red since despacking. mike khouw has the action. mike? >> so, djt is pretty remarkable, when you look at the options activity. it traded 20% above its average, already very elevated options volume. remarkable for a company that isn't really a company yet. calls outpaced puts, and oftentimes, that means there's

bullish sentiment, but that isn't actually the case here, because almost all of the calls that traded, and the five most active calls were all very deeply in the money. the most active of those were the january 25 15-strike calls, very deep in the money. what is going on here? and what is actually happening is this is mostly institutional flow. this stock is very hard to borrow. so, if you want to be short this stock, it is difficult to short it. so, people are using options instead, and that's what a lot of this institutional flow is about. this is efforts to take short bets on djt going out in time. >> surprised institutions would even bother playing the options market in this name, mike. is that surprising to you at all? >> well, i mean, consider the size, i mean, you know, if you wanted to make a bearish bet on something, and some of these bets are pretty big, i mean, 8,600 of those calls traded. 86,000 shares worth. that's not an inconsequential amount. the 30-strike calls, let's see,

for june, those traded 4,200 times. the 20-strike calls going out to 2025, that was also about 4,000 contracts, so these aren't small bets. and, you have know, if you're going to try to make a bearish bet on something like this, options is the way to do it. but you have to find a way to short it. and that's hard to do. >> mike, thank you. mike khouw. karen? >> yeah. >> tempted you yet? >> well, i was curious, i said, yesterday. how much is it to short? 300%. >> it's gone down -- >> it was 130% the other day and i was like, wait, so, if i shorted for a full year, i lose money no matter where it trades? they said yes, so, this is even worse, but obviously people only borrow it for a short amount of time, i think they're hoping for a lockup to be waved, and so, supply to come on the market. >> right. but we mentioned reddit, are you surprised that reddit is trading higher? >> i'm surprised. it's not trading particularly well, and i think in the last hour, they had the klaviyo ceo,

this is a tech stock, it was hotly anticipated, people wanted to see how this one was going to do, $6.5 billion market cap or so. it spent most of its time as a publicly traded company below its ipo price. i think that's interesting. still losing money on a gap basis. there's growing sales, maybe 28%, 29% for the next couple of years. i'm sure it's a very good company. doesn't say a lot nor demand for these issues right now. >> up next, final trades. at ameriprise financial our advice

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citigroup. >> dan? >> you want to protect your citigroup, xlf puts. >> guy? >> we do have time. >> yeah, we do. >> ranger game with his daughter, that's beautiful. >> we're going to have fun. >> all dressed up. >> alcoa, aa. >> thank you for my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to cramerica. my job is not just to educate but to teach. call me, 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me. everybody wants to play the silly game of trying to figure