we'll be watching this tomorrow close lip. as well as, jon, we've got services ism, which will be one to watch, too, because that's been a strong, solid part of the economy ahead of jobs report. it's one more data input for investors who are trying to digest a resilient economy and higher yields. >> yep. >> that does it for us here at "fast "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. unmitigated disaster. that is what one of the biggest tesla bulls said about the ev maker's first quarter deliveries. the stock is down close to 35% this year. is the worst still to come? we will debate that. plus, tanked topped. pants and more. shares of pvh falling 20% after the calvin klein and hilfiger parent gave weak guidance for the rest of the year. and later, the battle for the boardroom. we're just hours away from the end of disney's knockdown, dragout fight with nelson peltz.

the winner, the loser, and the impact, straight ahead. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- tim see your, courtney garcia, dan nathan and guy adami. the dow dropping nearly 400 points, the nasdaq down a percent. rates are back on the rise. the yield on the ten-year treasury touching 4.4% for the first time since last november. we're going to get to that in a minute. but butfirst, we turn to tesla. they reported q-1 deliveries that fell far short. the company getting fewer than 390,000 cars to customers, its first year over year delivery decline since the height of the pandemic and the biggest miss in five years. the report promming uber tesla bull dan ives to call it an unmitigated disaster that is hard to explain away. he has a $300 price target,

still, a level that it hasn't seen since september 2022. is this the straw that finally breaks the tesla bulls' backs. are we at an inflection point? guy, what do you think? >> huge lef ivel in the stock. yes is the answer to your question. you have to believe trough margins, that's a bit of a pipe dream. i thought margins were a story. that last, i think three quarters ago, they said, that's it in terms of margin, we're going to start to reaccelerate. the stock went from 185, that was a move up to almost 300 bucks from the 185 level. we're right back there now. critical level. this is where we took off from last april. traded a decent amount of volume, but you have to wait until the earnings release, i think on the 23rd. if margins are disappointing, on the back of what you heard today, that level that we saw, that low that we put in at 113 low, that's in the cards, i think. >> i think it's going to have to deliver on more than just margins at this point. they are also probably going to give the full year guidance and have to rachet that down. nobody expects them to hit that

number at this point. >> seems like there's not going to be a lot of great news until we have some kind of a pickup in models. and the questions are coming off of the first down delivery quarter since, i think, second quarter of 2020, is, what's causing it? is it self-inflicted, is it demand, is it macro? have all the early adopters gone bye-bye? i don't think this is, you know, i don't think this is chinese competitors in the u.s. market, for sure, i think this is certainly -- china has been weak for them, i do think it's margins, i do think that incentives so far in march show they're not even helping here. so, you know, ultimately, it gets back to, if you are an investor, oom not sure -- look, you doubt have to wait for good news and catalyst to go buy a stock, in many cases, they bottom in advance of that. is that what's going on here? the good news has to be three, four quarters out. i just think that, you know, the silver lining is, again, they finished -- they are now ahead

of byd in terms of the bev deliveries, at least on a global basis, but that's just because that's a very volatile series for the chinese. >> we knew from the company itself that it was going to be between two waves of growth, right? and so here we are in this sort of trough, and so, how do we navigate this trough, how bad does it get during this volatile period until the promised second wave of growth that we should see, according to the company? >> think it's going to come down to where it's coming from. what tesla came out and say, issues with some factories, maybe on the production side. my question is, how much that's on the the demand side. they are definitely getting competition. china has been an issue for them. they lost the ev tax credits, it went away for their model threes. you have a lot less demand now that the tax credit is gone. we'll have to see, is that a one-time blip, or is there a lot less demand? and people are going towards

hybrids, less towards full electric vehicle. we don't have the demand picture, but we need to see that. >> that's the missi ing piece, demand. >> this is not going to be popular, but it looks like the most genius ceo of the face of the planet has miscalculated in so many different ways. none more punctuated this gamut with the cyber truck. let's make 300 a week, let's get all the bros excited about this thing, all the stuff it can do, and what did they do? they just dropped the ball on a low end ev that is kicking their butt in china right now, by a lot of local competition. a lot of local competition that nobody wanted to acknowledge for years and years. and we spend a lot of time talking about, well, detroit is going to come for them, korean, and the germans, that didn't matter. half the output comes from giga shanghai. the cars they don't sell there, they ship to europe. there's a lot of competition all over the place, but most importantly, in china. and you think about this, the other thing that the company

really miscalculated on this whole idea of price elasticity, right? as soon as they started cutting the prices, it just kept on pushing demand further and further. and the thing i said last night and probably said it 50 times over the last year or so, this company hasn't even seen a really bad economy in the u.s. since covid. the last time that they had year over year delivery declines. so, to me, i just think it's kind of interesting. i think at some point, this stock is likely on its way, i don't think it's a great press on the short side. people that watch this show, they don't do puts, but it's probably going to 100. it's probably back to that level that it got to, i think it was january, you know, that period of 2022 when it kind of fell off a cliff from 200 or whatever. look at that chart. this is one of the worst-looking stock charts i've seen in my life. and i mean that. this is a trillion dollar market cap company at the end of 2021. so, i just think that it's not a great story, the sentiment's really bad, it doesn't make for a great press on the short side,

but by the same token, to tim's point, the fundamentals are not likely to get better for a couple quarters here. >> and the analyst community has to follow through. there's going to be a slew of downgrades here, which aren't going to help -- >> after earnings, probably. >> yeah. and i think even -- there reason some folks that are going to make numbers changed based upon this. i also think that if you look at the broader market, investing environment where there has been a lot of momentum, there's been a lot of, let's call it sp speculative activity, the fact that tesla is not participating at all i think is right. the cult nature of this stock, you haven't seen an unwind of that. those are the people that have been holding in. this was an expensive stock that is getting more expensive by the day, and the question is, is this really a growth stock? it's clearly not right now. >> in terms of the miscalculations, i agree with you in terms of the price elas elasticity. what are consumers going to do? but in terms of the turn in demand for evs, i don't know if anybody could have anticipated

such a quick and dramatic turn. >> if anybody should have, i should have been the company that pioneered the ev revolution. i mean, like, let's just be clear, he's been whining about interest rates, the economy. when i see -- hey, this company was ground zero for a.i. what do you think full self-driving is? it's a.i. >> every automaker, though, that had an ev offering miscalculated demand on evs. they all had to rachet back their ev plan. >> and look what happened to gm and ford as soon as they did that. >> i think we're getting at an important question. do we think evs, that demand is shot? that the trend is, at least, we know people are going to continue to buy. we know the internal combustion engine at some point goes the way of the dinosaur, though it does seem like it's going to take some time, but that seems to be the question we're having here. if you're talking about ev, they are still out in front by a lot. and i'm not shhere to defend tesla. i've not liked this stock for a long, long time, and i like it less now, but i think if we are

questioning evs, there's probably a lot of people that could get up here and debate this, and i don't think you can say that demand for ev, as, you know, versus a hybrid, and obviously versus an internal combustion, you can't tell me that ev demand has peaked. it hasn't. >> no, i don't think anybody's saying that here, at least, but i think that is the debate, right? >> but it's not just about evs. i'm sorry, i'll let you guys in. the stock still has a half a trillion dollar market cap. and that's not because of evs, okay? it's because of this belief about full self-driving. about this whole thing. that's what it's about. and so, until they can demonstrate something on that front, i justdon't know how the stock recovers. that being said, when they report, and if they kitchen sink it, the whole year, that talk about the waves, they have to get to that mass market $25,000, that's the thing that's robo-taxis, they can sell all over the world and get the margins at a level that works. that's the story. that's going to take quarters,

all right? so, right here, right now, when the stock breaks, it goes -- it's going to go back to $100. and you just start buying it. then you have the opportunity between there and 100 bucks to get 100% move when they finally get their stuff together. so, to me, there's going to be an opportunity really soon. it's just not there yet. >> the thing about -- interest rates notwithstanding which elon musk mentioned, butt the environment they find themselves in, unemployment's historic lows still, people have jobs, people are clearly spending money, and gasoline, very quietly, has been going higher in a pretty meaningful way, which theoretically should lend itself to demand for these cars. it's not happening. so, that's the environment that it should be happening in, it's not. what happens if that switches, if the switch gifts flipped in terms of unemployment? so, if unemployment rates start to go meaningfully higher, which i happen to believe it will, that's just one more headwind for this story. the road ahead may look rocky for tesla, but our next guest sees today's news as a

test of investor patient. gene munster is with us now. you are among those legions of investors whose patience will be tested. so, what are you waiting for? >> indeed. melissa, first, i am bracing, as someone who has been supportive of what tesla's doing and optimistic about where this company can go, i was just stunned today. i think that this caught me offguard, i was expecting it basically to be flat, deliveries are down 9%. the first order of business is how bad is it going to get? the panel has done a great job of articulating there's going to be more negativity, i just want to put that into context. going into today, the street was looking for 15% delivery growth in 2024. if you look at the numbers that just reported and assume they can grow deliveries 10% sequentially for the rest of the year, deliveries will be down 3% for the year, so, this is probably more ugly than it seems, even today, and given that change and look what

happened in the stock, i don't think that's fully priced in, so, dan, you've been clear about that $100, i don't think we're going to see $100, but i do believe that the stock is going to go lower, because this is going to be kind of the kitchen sink. you are going to see analysts -- i had that job for a long time -- throw in the towel and say this is going to be over for a long time, so, i want to point that -- start there. second is, the bigger picture. and i think tim, you were talking about just, you know, this ev and the ev picture. just to frame that, that's a $2.5 trillion market, the auto market on a yearly basis, eventually, it's going toe go . i think it's going to come faster, though this is such an ugly day on the delivery numbers. and the reason i believe one of the biggest factors in this horrible number was that there was so much excitement around evs, people who buy a car every five years probably moved it forward, bought it three years, pulled a lot of demand in. i think eventually that just

starts -- i'm guilty of being too optimistic, but i think they get to the other side. and dan, you talked about fsd, i agree that is an important piece here. if anybody's tried fsd, the beta they just put out last week, it is a step function better than what they've ever done, so i think that is going to come probably in the next year or go two, and i believe that's going to be another catalyst, so, that's where i'm at. >> what can they tell us, if anything, in the next quarter or two, that can sort of -- i don't want to say solve certain issues, but if they come out with a lower cost model, does that solve for some of the weakness that they will see in china and address that next wave of growth that investors are looking for? is there sort of a couple of things they can do that can make the story a little bit better? >> so, you've got two camps. you've got the people who believe, and the reason why the stock is not down more today, because that camp still exists. the reason why it still has the market cap it does, because that camp still exists.

they're not going to be inmrups influenced by another couple of punky quarters. the people that are skeptical, there's nothing that tesla's going to say, when they report their quarter on the 23rd, that's going to get those people more optimistic. but as an investor, i think you need to fast forward to -- i'm already thinking about mid-2025, at that point, we're going to have some really easy comps. this is down 9%, march of 2025 is -- we're going to start to get easier comps. i think that gets reflected in the stock mid to late this year. that's kind of the time frame. it's going to be rocky. i don't think there's much they can say, melissa. >> wow. gene, thank you. >> thank you. >> we should be clear, gene owns it personally, deepwater does not. mid-2025, that's a long time to wait. a lot can happen, i mean, overlay what's going to happen with rates, we don't know, with the economy and unemployment -- >> you're right. the market will get ahead of that, they'll sniff it out. maybe mid '25 -- early '25 story

in terms of the turn, but the market will sniff that out long before. it's a question of, again, i think dan said it, you're not pressing shorts here. i would say you probably are looking for an entry level at some point. and gene just said who has been as much of a bull as out there, he thinks the stock goes lower, so, have your sort of levels in mind and then swoop in when it gets there. of course, the problem is, when it gets there, it's going to look scare rip as can be. that's when you have to close your eyes and stick to your guns. let's turn now to the markets. dow weighed down by oil prices and rising yields. the ten-year treasury marches to its highest level in months. i feel like we've had this discussion many times about higher rates, sticky inflaktinf now, the markets are saying, look at this. >> higher rates have been something that i think the market has digested at different times with different sense of velocity since july 2020. i think rates havebeen going higher for four years or 3 1/2

years, and i think they're going to continue to trickle higher. a lot of interesting, at least conversation being had on the deficit what's sustainable, what can be refinanced? the numbers don't really add up, and if you add in the dynamics of washington and dysfunction and credit downgrades and you add in refunding schedule, tra, things that we never really, you know, work the room on, it's not good for equities, and make no mistake, on friday, if we get a really weak payroll number, yields are going to go lower. they're going to go lower before they go higher. that's ultimately what's going to happen. the u.s. economy is kind of like a stock. if gdp shrinks, you're going to have a dynamic where they're not making as much money in u.s. uusa corp. i think for equities, it ease easy to be critical about where all the eps growth has come from and where it's going to be. we know this in q-4, it was 68% growth by the top handful of stocks we all know and the rest grew by 0.9.

the street is expecting 12.9%. right now, i also don't think you can necessarily throw away the fact that the big stocks are the ones that could carry us through a rising rate environment. these are the stocks that are very defensive during that time. >> at the same time, we're getting fed speak that indicate three is still a good baseline, which is what we were sort of debating in the past couple of sessions. >> i think that's what you're seeing, every time the fed comes out, the markets are going to get ahead of themselves. they really kind of showed their cards early. they were really indicative they are going to do so, now markets got excited and they're pulling back. we've seen this push and pull several times. i don't think it's necessarily anything to be concerned about. the big question is, when are rates going to come down? we are still at a peak, maybe they don't cut at all this year, i know people are talking about that more. but i don't think they're going higher, but i don't think you need to be overly concerned. >> if courtney's right -- with what she said, in terms of no

cuts, that might be the most bullish scenario for stocks that is out there. somewhat counterintuitive, but it would be that things are going fine, no reason to cut. three cuts, if they start cutting rates, the inflationary pressures, which are problematic, are only going to continue. this gold move and bond move basically took place on that seemingly interpreted at dovish commentary a couple weeks ago. so, they have to combat that now and it's not just happening. it's not just energy, it's the soft commodities we talked about last week. >> you have crude oil where it is right now, you have the dollar where it is right now, wages where they are right now, you know, that's going to be hard to come by. we might have gotten to peak margins for s&p 500 companies, when you start getting peak margins, that's when you tweak your valuation margins. the s&p trading about 21 times, that's a few turns over the average over the last ten years or so. this is the most uncertain environment that we've had in our lifetimes about inflation,

and i have never seen -- you can say that there's a lot of clarity about what the fed is saying and how they're kind of signaling what they might do, i've never seen -- i don't know, confusion on their part. if you think about what at least the markets were interpreting three months ago, i don't think they have a clue. and i think that we're going to see june cut priced out pretty quickly here, and, you know, i don't know, i don't know if a one-off, you know, employment report on friday is going to do the thing. the way rates just rallied, like, moved over the last two trading days with that sort of thing, that was something that i think people really should pay attention to, because we still have not seen a lot of equity volatility. we had a vix that was trading at 12 1/2, what, two days ago? >> yeah, the vix is maybe the story of the day, and i think that's a function of rates. guy's talking about gold. i think gold goes a lot higher. the traditional correlations for gold have kind of broken down. gold is doing with this a higher dollar. oil is doing this with a higher dollar. commodities are doing this with a higher dollar. people want to be in terra f

firma. i would go to a toll brothers, some of these names, i just feel like a little interest rate shock -- there has been a trade going on here, and if you look at it, actually, the strength in rates, so, rates moving higher in the fall, and then getting weaker, actually took these things to new highs, as if suddenly they were at the beginning of a cycle again. i don't think we are. coming up, all the intel out of intel. the chip maker updating investors on the newfoundry business. plus, calvin decline. pvh plummeting despite an earnings beat. how it is leading the whole space lower. don't go anywhere. more "fast money" in two. this is "fast money" with melissa lee right here on cnbc.

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get real deal speed, reliability and power with xfinity. she shoots from here? that's kinda my thing. welcome back to "fast money." intel providing an update for its foundry business in the last hour. a call with investors happening right now. the stock down 4% afterhours to

close the day down more than 1%. kristina partsinevelos has the very latest. >> intel looking to convince customers of better profitability as it separates its foundry business and intel products, to better highlights the metrics of intel's businesses, starting in q-1 2024 with the hopes it would improve its valuation. its latest 8-k said intel expects foundry operating losses to peak in 2024 and then hit break even operating margins at some point, they are using the term midway between the end of now and 2030, when it targets nongap gross margins of 40% and 30% nongap operating margins. but again, those operating margins that i just provided you are six years away. the stock, to your point, reacting negatively, because intel confirmed that the foundry business did operate at a loss of $6.9 billion last year. you can see that on your screen, compared to, let's say, its

product business that brought in $11.3 billion, and that includes networking, data centers, et cetera. investors aren't convinced about the profitability, the margins, they are getting asked a lot of questions right now. the company, though, blaming the lack of profitability for its foundry business on, quote, the weight of past decisions and significant front-loaded investments like building the fabs. they are promising to spend $100 billion on american soil just over the next little while as they build out the fabs and have five new chip nodes in four years. with this breakout of the foundry business, they can -- they believe they can be better compared with taiwan semi conductor, the largest foundry in the world, so, that's the main point of it. you can compare now the product business with nvidia and the foundry business with tsmc. and. >> kristina, thank you. tim, you feel better about the intel story after this call? >> look, it's pretty clear every

time they open their mouth, stock goes lower. and when they close their mouth, they get pulled up by the sector. that's what it feels like. $7 billion in terms of operating loss, you know, for that unit and then the services side of it, i mean, it's disappointing. there's clearly tailwind for the space. there's clearly tailwind for this company in our country, and -- but there's no question. also, if you think about where we're going to be in 2027 for their foundry business -- who knows. that's absurd to be talking about 2027 -- >> two cycles, for all we know. >> maybe i made up my mind today. kind of exercise some thoughts here. i feel better, guy. it was a tough weekend for my mets, okay? do i need to get it out here? it was a tough weekend. >> you can't let that cloud your feelings about intel. >> not supposed to be emotional. >> you've been sticking by intel for a long time, and the notion of the foundry business is one key reason why, and now it's going to take much longer.

>> i've traded it around, and there's no question there's been different investment theses with in intel. and data center was really bread and butter, but we knew about ani, and that deterioration gave you a chance to trade it into this inflection point. now, it seems to be the theme of the night, how long are we going to wait for profitability? >> 15 years, we didn't move our feet. the sector, the whole world passed us by without us even realizing it. we know those mistakes were made. we're moving on from them. we're a homeland security play, investing in the united states, you can believe in us. that's the message. they just tell a really poor one. by the way, you know what was a similar story? ibm, everybody loved ibm. they got lost along the way. the world passed them by. >> look at them now. >> they figured it out. intel has to figure it out. i actually think you can actually own intel here. >> all right, there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. apparel in peril.

vin investors in retail names checking out in a big way today. the headlines leading the group lower, and where the waengeakne lies, next. u.s. china relations in focus, as the presidents of the two countries speak. what came out of that call? and how tiktok factors into the conversation. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. at ameriprise financial our advice

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welcome back to "fast money." looks like red may be the new black. retail stocks down big today, led by tommy hilfiger and calvin klein owner pvh. that stock down more than 22%, its worst day since 1987. while the company did beat estimates for itsmost recent quarter's forecast, revenue will decrease by as much as 7% in 2024 and 11% just in the first quarter. other apparel companies falling today, too, among them, levi's, vf corp, guess, and ralph lauren. all of them depend on other retail outlets to sell their goods. maybe that's the common theme

here. >> you're seeing this with a lot of different companies reporting, and i'm still firmly of the belief, it's not really a problem with the consumer. they are showing that expectations are way lower than anybody expected. i tonigdon't now how much that them just lowering the bar even further, but you want to see the brands that companies are loyal to. this might not be one of those, that could clearly be a problem over the next couple of quarters here, but i don't think it's a problem with the consumer. >> iu.s. wasn't that bad, but te final countdown was in europe. it was a lot -- >> you see what he said that -- >> the song that annoyed me -- >> listened to that song on the break. tweet us if you know the name of the band. that is the band. >> you just gave it away. >> if you look at the move in the apparel names over the last three to six months, i mean, it's been extraordinary, so, i --courtney's right to say, we know the consumer hasn't fallen

out of bed. i think discretionary is not a place to be. and i expect it not to be a place to be in 2024 and it's been okay. i think we're starting to get some signs. some of these apparel folks, aber com bee, american eagle, and if you look, even ralph lauren was down big today, i think that's the message. >> these are thebrands that are kind of in the middle, like, they're not high end, they're not low end. >> 100%. they are smack in the middle, which is where you don't want to be. the stocks have had great runs, but put up the pvh chart. this move today was three months in the making. this was from december until now, gave it back in a day, i mean, that's problematic when you see moves like this. this is not a small cheap, it's not huge, $6 billion company, but that speaks to a market, that speaks to david einhorn who said a lot of the functions are broken. coming up, that dream house is looking more and more like just that, a dream. how much housing payments have skyrocketed over the past year, and whether there's any relief in sight for would be home

buyers. but first, president biden holding a phone call with china's president xi jinping. the headlines out of that conversation, and what to expect in secretary yellen's trip to the mainland. when "fast money" returns. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money." stocks dropping for another day as markets get off to a rough start to q-2. the dow falling nearly 400 points, the s&p down 0.7% and the nasdaq down nearly 1%. all three having their worst daily performances in nearly a month. some stocks managing to continue hot winning streaks. newmont mining. rtx. and kraft heinz up 122 in a row. managed care stocks down sharply today. investors were hoping for a larger increase in rates. the whole sector under pressure. president biden and chinese president xi jinping holding a phone call today, tackling issues ranging from tiktok ownership to economic relations.

the white house saying the almost two-hour call was a way for the leaders to check in and manage their strained relationship. it comes two days before treasury secretatariretary jan yellen travels to china. stephen, what should we expect, if anything, out of secretary yellen's visit to why that. >> well, it comes at an important time, melissa, as all these visits do. first of all, when you're talking about the xi/biden call, you have to cut the time in half because of consecutive translation, so, they each got maybe, i don't know, 45 minutes of air time, but secretary yellen has got to deal with this imbalance between supply and demand, which is putting too many chinese goods into the market right night and a source of concern for the u.s.

i was in beijing last week, and there's a lot of talk about manufacturing and upgrading the production on the supply side, but a lot of hand wringing over the lack of demand, so, that imbalance is a big deal. >> and at the same time, we had many u.s. ceos over there in beijing meeting with president xi and this sort of ere kes traited meeting, so, there is this acknowledgement on the part of beijing that they need american business, and yet there's this strained relationship that runs underneath, stephen, i'm wondering what you think of this relationship and how it will be as we approach the elections, particularly when we're looking at a potential trump presidency, he's already, you know, threatened very steep tariffs on chinese goods. >> he has. orchestrated is a good way to describe last week's meet ing. certainly china has demonstrated a willingness and continued to tell american businessmen that

china is open for business and american businessmen have been more than delighted to echo that same sentiment, but they remain cautious. i was part of the group that was in china last week, sentiment is weak. the chinese policymakers are still giving mixed signals on their receptiveness to u.s. business, so, you know, it's -- pretty much the jury's out on where this is headed. >> hey, stephen, it's tim. there's a lot of codependence that these countries have together, and, you know, so, whether it is international dynamics, but the diplomacy is welcomed. do you think yellen heading to china has -- is there anything related to just what's going on in treasury markets or the biggest buyer of our treasuries, you know, are you at all concerned about this dynamic, it's clear that chinese central bank buying of gold and other

diversifiers away from buying the stuff that historically china couldn't get enough of. >> well, tim, i hear you on codependence, i wrote a book on that several years ago myself, but i don't think that secretary yellen's visit is to talk much about china's role in buying gold or buying u.s. treasuries i think it has much more to do with just ongoing dialogue, part of the continued communication on strategic economic issues, especially now this supply/demand imbalance. >> stephen, we got some manufacturing data out of china over the weekend, and it was better than expected. signaling that their economy is out of contraction. did you get any reads on the ground there that would maybe just kind of say, okay, there's some bottoming process going on here, frome of the contacts you have away from the government?

>> well, there's hope that the worst is over . the premier did address the china development forum in the opening session and spoke hopefully about trends in the first two months of the year, but you know, these are tentative reads, at best, given the shortfall in chinese growth last year. and i think there's still a lot of nervousness in beijing as to where the economy is headed in the months ahead. >> stephen, we have to leave it there. always a pleasure speaking with you. thank you for your time. >> like wise, thanks. >> stephen roach. where are you on china? there are lot of people that want to believe that maybe we are at this juncture of improvement. >> yeah, we really remain constructive on emerging markets, including china, and i think you are seeing negative sentiment there. people are getting board on with emerging markets, i want to be in it, except for china, which

is probably a good sign that people are still underinvested there. i think you want to have a piece of this in your portfolio. >> that january 22nd low in the fxi is holding up. we pointed out a number of times. and now at 2460, i think you can own the fxi, and alibaba holding in there, it hasn't traded particularly well, but i think china is going to surprise people to the upside. coming up, housing market havoc. home prices in february more than 5% higher than last year. we'll explore the lock-in effect of high mortgage rates and low supply hitting buyers and sellers hard. plus, disney's board room battle coming to a head before a major vote tomorrow. what's at stake for bob iger and nelson peltz and the rest of the magic kingdom, right after this.

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maria and julio thought their life would never slow down. then one day, it finally did. you were made to find inner peace. we were made to track flight prices to paradise. welcome back to "fast money." trouble for the housing market, as high mortgage rates and low supply are combining to keep the cost of home ownership high. diana olick has a deep dive on the numbers. >> melissa, home prices in february were 5.5% higher than february of last year, and the price gained from january to february was actually nearly

twice what it was historically p prepandemic, suggesting that this spring's market started out very strong, despite another rebound in mortgage rates. the trouble, of course, continues to be lack of supply, which is 40% below where it usually is, because of that lock-in effect of current homeowners who won't sell because the cost of moving up is so high. how high? well, in the 22 years before the fed started raising rates, for the average homeowner, moving to a similar house, say across the street, wouldn't change their monthly payment at all. upgrading to a 25% more expensive home would increase their monthly payment of principle and interest by 40%, or about $400. now, fast forward to today, and for home owners who have rates near record lows, buying ing o home in the current market would increase their monthly payment by 60% and trading up to a 25% more expensive home would result in a 132% increase in that monthly payment, or about $1,800 more.

now, this is an average for the nation, so, it will vary market to market, and in the higher cost markets, it's even more than that, melissa, so, it's kind of crazy. >> are there still all cash buyers out there, diana? because mortgage rates wouldn't pertain to them. >> yeah, in fact, there's a much larger share of all cash buyers now than there have been in the past, and that's because they're trying to get out of this mortgage rate effect where they would have to pay so much more. some people are using cash to be more competitive. the trouble is, that first-time buyer is having trouble saving just for the down payment, so, for them to get all cash is going to be very hard. we're hearing about housing hacks, where people are buying homes together with family members or friends. but really, all cash is the way to do it if you want to keep these costs down. >> group buying sounds like a terrible idea, but that's just me personally. dia diana, thank you. so, what does this tell us? people are really entrenched, and if they do move, they have

less money in their pockets, because their payment is so much more. what do you do here? >> it's a real problem that's happening. and millennials, there's more of them than baby boomers who are creating families. there's not enough houses to go around. and people are still under the 4% rate, so, even if interest rates come down, people are not going to be selling their homes any time in the near future. that's where the home builders come in. the way to get more housing is to build at a cheaper entry point. i think dr horton is going to continue to benefit from that. >> the only thingi think that derails it is the unemployment rate. if people start losing -- that will force the hands of people, more supply will come. not hoping for that. that's sort of the wild card out there. with that said, the xhb, 111 and change. 4.5%, williams sonoma, look at that chart. these things have been parabolic, so -- you're sticking with it here, understanding if unemployment starts ticking higher, that is going to come

cascading higher. >> toll brothers has gone from 45 to 124 since october of '22. the moves here have been staggering. now, the moves that have been also around when we've had those periods of higher rates and then we've had a pull-back in that dynamic, you've seen a lot of stocks completely outperform. look, i've been wrong on housing, you know, my view halfway through last year is that we'd seen the peak in the housing cycling. what's fascinating to me is that home depot and lowe's have great charts, and they have been the beneficiaries of people sitting tight and doing what they have to do where they live. coming up, the battle for disney's board room ends tomorrow. will this be a big one for disney or could activists stage a big comeback? more on the fate of the magic kingdom next. and here's a sneak peek at the cramer cam. jim is chatting with the ceo of payc paychex. that's coming up on on "mad money." more "fast money" in two.

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business. it's not a nine-to-five proposition. it's all day and into the night. it's all the things that keep this world turning. the go-tos that keep us going. the places we cheer. and check in. they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. see why comcast business powers more small businesses than anyone else. get started for $49.99 a month plus ask how to get up to an $800 prepaid card. don't wait- call today. welcome back to "fast money." less than 24 hours until the house of mouse's pivotal shareholder meeting and disney is clinching early victories. bloomberg reporting that disney's biggest institutional investor is voting in favor of

the company's proposed board slate, that adds to its reported lead among the votes counted so far. so, how should investors digest the likely outcome for the magic kingdom? and does it matter at this point? because a lot of people have been finally recognizing disney as a value here. >> yeah, i think, as we pointed out, julia boorstin's pointed this out, some of the agenda are similar on both sides. there's no question, this is really about profitability and cutting some costs. there are some dynamics, i think, around the streaming business that are really -- it's as if we're having this theme tonight, companies that were not making money that at some point need to show they can be profitable in a core part of their business and the guidance we've gotten from the company is really amazing. it's been a significant turn. the valuation still makes a lot of sense, even after a massive move in the stock. guy's marked this many times. where was the bottom? >> 77ish, yeah. >> amazing. >> i think the environment is still for the stock to go

higher. >> given that run and the selloff, it had every opportunity to sell off, take profits. it was higher on the day. i'm with tim on this. may report in early may, i think you stay with it into earnings. >> you like disney? >> i do. you want to kind of put the proxy battle aside. this is a company, they're increasing cash flow, their streaming business is close to profitability. really strong parks business. and i think depending on where you see things going, if it is going to go disney's way, that's supportive, they like the way things are going. i think you absolutely want to pay this here. >> do you think we'll hear about bob iger's succession? >> no. >> i don't. >> maybe dan -- imagine dan running disney. >> no. >> what -- >> you hear that? that was nancy laughing in the back. >> well, i mean, it's like a magical kind of place. >> right. >> maybe they need a nonmagical person. >> and very realistic person -- >> i see. >> yeah, not my jam. i'll go do something in the real world. >> magic and -- >> i love iger, bob iger is going to go down, no matter -- >> one of the greatest ceos.

>> when you think of the asset that he bought, the lucas, the pixar, the marvel. what they've been able to create in and around that, and think about how difficult the streaming last ten years have been -- >> for everybody. >> for everybody, and what it might look like for the next 10 to 12, whatever it is, and it will be on those assets they bought. >> up next, final trades.

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our neighbors, the garcía's, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized, -hey, john reese, jr. -how's your father doing? to help reach your goals with confidence. my sister's told me so much about you. that's why it's more than advice worth listening to. it's advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. final trade time. tim? >> look at that move in energy, xle, but break it down, one of the key names, and also one of the key names in blicep, of course, is chevron. that's right, cvx. >> courtney? >> disney. we talked about this earlier. i think this is a company that's undervalued. a good play for the long run.

still good to own. >> dan? >> the b in blicep is baba. play it through the kweb. >> also the b in zebra. >> oh, yeah. >> the iowa women's basketball team, huge fans of "fast money." >> they deserve it. >> rtx. >> thank you for watching my mission is simple. to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now . >> hey, i am jim cramer. welcome to "mad money." >> trying to help you save some money. my job is not just entertainment. >> what can i say about this market? the inputs today, they are plain bad. creeping up every day, you cannot have mortgage rates about the climb and you