quarter gdp. we'll see how that evolves and this isn't part of the story, higher commodity prices wasn't supposed to be happening and an accelerating economy. >> goldman just a few moments ago upping q1 to 2.3. we'll see what happens. the russell is down 2%. let's get to "the half." carl, thanks so much. welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner. front and center this hour, the backup in rates, the sell-off in stocks, a tough day shaping up in the major averages as we welcome in the investment committee today. josh brown, bryn talkington, sarat sethi and jim lebenthal. we check the markets. we have a near 500-point decline for the dow. the s&p off by 1%. you heard carl talk about the russell down about 2%. yields are up. the ten year is. crude is up. dollar index is up as well. bryn, there are nerves that will

be tested here, right? >> sure are, right? i mean, we've been overbought in this market really since early february. i think that really we needed the catalyst. i think between the manufacturing numbers we started with and then on top of that oil and then we have gold prices up and then, you know, we have an economy that is strong. and i think the narrative around how many times the fed is going to cut rates or lack of is really going to cause the market to rethink certain sectors and certain securities that were really banking on rates cutting to make them go higher for the rest of the year. i think we're at a crossroads. >> you know, josh, chris ferrone, the title is raising our guard. he says the push in yields right back to the key 4.5 level is important. the persistence from gold, we're inclined to tactically raise our guard particularly given a play sent sentiment backdrop. do you agree with that? >> i do. you know, last week -- last week

there had been some really classic indicators that the market was in need of a little bit of a cooling off. when you saw that activity happening with the donald trump spac, you just knew there were games being played that we really haven't seen since, like, late 2021. you also saw a whole bunch of meme coins, and i don't mean accidental meme coins like they just became meme oins, but things deliberately created to troll everyone. you saw some of those starts to add billions of dollars in, quote, unquote, market cap. these are the type of things that typically happen toward the end of a really big run. it doesn't mean the final run, but they are topeetoppy in the aggregate when you see them happen all at once. and there's no -- this is pretty informal, and there's no real

data that we can attach to this, but i noticed some of the worst people on social media beating their chests again about bitcoin and this and that. so that was a moment we say, all right, let me look at rsis, look at how overbought the market really is. let me add some data to this conversation. and, sure enough, across the board, you just found this incredible 90% of the s&p 500, you know, in an uptrend and you say, all right, things need to cool off. that's all this is, though, judge. i don't think it's more than that. i could be wrong and things could change, but the way i see it, this is perfectly normal activity to expect in an otherwise raging bull market. >> i mean, sarat, bespoke says the s&p -- perfectly to josh's point -- the s&p 500 has closed an overought territory for 50 consecutive trading days. the last time it's done that was more than 25 years ago in april of '98. we knew the market was

overbought. you knew that there were a few tipping point possibilities, be it the backup in rates, and now you have oil up, gold up, dollar up. and the question is how much on guard do you think we need to be? >> well, i think it's natural, to josh's point, we need to digest this huge run that we've had really in the last six months. but the thing that i like about this rally is it has broadened, and if you had exposure to commodities, you had exposure to materials, you are doing well in this market. you're not just in this narrow four stocks now that are only doing well. and we've had some of the other ones have come off. it's natural for the market to come back and if rates are doing this and the market is strong because of an economy, that means earnings should be good, which is good for the stock market. so these are things happening for the right reasons. i'm not as worried as if they were happening for the other reasons, which is a slowing economy and now we're going down the chute. >> you can say, well, the market has broadened, that's a good

thing. you could probably make the case that cases have broadened because a lot of large-cap tech has hit new record highs or new 52-week highs, so there's a lot of boats that have risen with this tide, and you can maybe point to some and say maybe that was a little much. >> well, i think the run in some of these sectors has been really quick, but those are the ones, at least for us, we want to be in. we can add more money there. i'm not as worried for the pullback. >> to steve liesman. he has breaking news now, the cleveland fed president loretta mester is speaking now. >> loretta mester, as you say, scott, says it's appropriate to cut rates later if the economy evolves as she expects. she says there has been substantial progress on inflation, and she expects that progress to continue. in fact, adding, the inflation picture in her mind hasn't changed much despite the firmer

readings in january and february. she does it or had expected inflation progress to slow. so what she saw the last two months was very much in line with what she expected. the most likely scenario inflation continues to decline towards the 2% target over time. now she's not quite ready to cut just yet saying she needs to see more monthly readings on inflation, quote, to raise my confidence. does not expect to have enough by the next meeting, enough confidence, that is, or enough data. she says they are coming back to better balance, but points out the bigger risk right now is cutting too early. if inflation, she says, expectations come down, not cutting would amount to a tightening. so that's a bit on the dovish side. she does see higher inflation this year than the median fed forecast out there which is 2.6%. and she acknowledges that her neutral rate is at 3% compared to the median of 2.5%. i would point out for your edification there that there are now seven members of the fomc

who are at 3% or higher for the neutral rate and that compared to 4 back in december. she said it includes heightened political tensions, slowing growth in the economy, and stronger than expected productivity growth. a real quick look at the probabilities. they had been at 59% for june. i'll just double-check that that remains the case after mester talks. that's just about where it is. you can see that june is a bit in play right now compared to how it was, and then you look, also, at the fed funds for the year end is 4.66. right in line even more hawkish than the fed is tomorrow. talked to raphael bostic, the fed president. >> you feel the bar is increasingly growing higher for june? >> yes. i think that's right. i think it is higher. my real concern right now is whether or not, given what y'all have been talking about, the

higher commodity prices, higher oil prices, whether or not that feeds into two things. one is inflation expectations and the other is the march inflation data that we get in april that will maybe set the count back again. everybody says waller said a couple months, mester says she needs a few more months of data. if you get that constant data that doesn't show the improvement, we have to start counting again. so that's why june would be in play or not necessarily a slam dunk for that rate cut because i don't expect or i'm not confident we're going to get more progress in march. >> steve, i appreciate it, as always. steve liesman, our senior economics reporter. jim, i hear we don't need rate cuts. the economy is great. that trumps rate cuts. jpmorgan says the bull market can continue without them. wolfe research a good chance of zero rate cuts. what about that notion, whether we need them or we don't, the

market talked itself into a dovish and happy place. the economy is great. so what if 7 has gone to 3 and 3 to 2 or 2 to zero. >> we don't need rate cuts. that's my position. i'm not counting on it, and i'm not being blase either this is about a strong economy, profits -- >> you're in the camp i was just talking about. >> that's why i answered the way i did. i expected a little guffaw. i'm hurt. people are employed. when they're employed, they consume. whether it's buying houses, which is showing green chutes, the manufacturing ism that's indicating that inventories are being restocked, whether it's people traveling, airline traffic is still very, very high. people are employed, and for all of the worry that the long and lagged effects of 550, whatever it is, basis points of rate hikes by the fed would knock that down, we're now two years past the initial rate hike. if those long and lagged effects

would happen, they would have started to happen by now. they're just not. what is happening, though, the markets overall are coming to grips with the fact a recession is not likely, could happen, not likely. and if it doesn't happen then all these cyclical and value companies are likely to continue the good profit streaks and continue to catch up to the tech darlings. now, could we have a pullback? of course we could have a pullback. we're due for one. it would be healthy to have one. scott and dear viewers, i would be surprised if you get more than 7%. i think 5% down you're going to see the fear of missing out come in and people are going to start buying because a lot of people have sat on the sidelines as this market has taken off. >> how much of this rally from the october lows has to do with expectations of rate cuts? and now you're going to tell me that we don't need any and if we don't get any that everything is going to be just fine? are you telling me that -- why do you think the small caps are down 2% today? why? because rates are up. trades that were working or theoretically were going to work because of the prospect of rate

cuts, you can't now tell me, well, they're still going to work even if we don't get any rate cuts. >> well, no thesis is perfect, right, so you point out the small caps, and that's very hard for me to answer, but there's a larger universe above small caps. if you look at the s&p 500, just a general barometer of the stock market, what's it off, 1.5% from its recent high. and, scott, you're pointing out, we started the year expecting -- not me, not sarat, not josh and bryn, expecting six rate cuts and now we're down to two or three. june looks like it's getting pushed out. this market is accepting it. this market understands. it's not about rate cuts, it's about employment, profits, a strong economy, all of which you have. >> bryn? >> yeah, well, i mean, you touched on it, but the market is not this monolith, and you absolutely will have sector rotation. i know there's been this obsession with small caps for the last three or four months, go into small caps and, to me, that's such a narrow band that you have to have so many things work out. and so i think you will continue

to see small caps, value and growth, lag the market as we're going through this are we or are we not going to have the rate cuts because, don't forget, we're going into an election. i don't think the fed wants to be present cutting rates in the few months coming up to the election in november. and so i think their sweet spot if they cut rates will do it this summer. after that, they're going to be more neutral. i think as an investor, if you think we're going to be higher for longer, you absolutely need to understand what your positioning is, because there will be the haves and have-nots. i don't think certain cyclicals and also, scott, on top of this we have a really good economy, but why is that? i mean, this year in the federal budget we're going to have a $1.6 trillion hole, so it's not like we're just zooming along by ourselves. we are being juiced up from the fiscal side. andi think that's also a reason why -- >> it still counts. >> i know but there's unintended

consequences. and so why gold and why yields will continue to make investors nervous because when people start doing the math on interest expense and we can say with the reserve currency it doesn't matter, but at some point it will matter to markets if we keep juicing the economy from that side. >> josh, jim says rates are up and he used the market is accepting it. i would suggest the jury is still out. i mean, we're in the midst of a backup in rates. if you start getting above 4.4, right, we hit that, and then you start moving closer to 4.50 once again, that may be tested. >> you know what's so funny about that, judge, i'm old enough to remember when 3% was the level we couldn't get above in the ten year. that was like a no-go zone for stocks. and then we added 5,000 dow points immediately after crossing through it. yeah, i'm sure there's a trigger somewhere out there where people say, oh, you know what, actually, i'm going to make a

huge allocation shift. i don't know if it's 4.50. so i wouldn't get caught up in that conversation because if we go back and play the tapes, that's really not been incredibly helpful for people trying to make investments. >> okay. i'll grant you that. i guess my point is it's not necessarily a number, the dow down 501 points as i ask you this question. it's the idea that rates are not going to do what we once thought they were going to do. and part of this move in the market was predicated on the fact that rates were going to do what we thought they were going to do, and that's go lower. >> but why? >> what's that? >> but why? so, like, rates are not going to do what people thought they were going to do, but why? if the reason why is because we're seeing, like, re-accelerating inflation and some sort of an emergency where the fed has to pivot, that's really bad.

i don't think that's currently what's being reprised right now. if the reason why we're not getting six rate cuts or four or three this year or that it's not june, it's july, is because the data continues to be strong. i think, to jim's point -- he used the word i wouldn't have chosen. he said the market has accepted it. i would say the market has tolerated it, and that's a really big difference. so i come back to what i said originally. i think we were way overbought, not like in my gut feeling, but the data. rsis have been explosive and the percentage of stocks and up trends have been explosive like statistically. all this is is a cooling off and, again, the reason why is not runapriway inflation. there's no reason to think the fed feels that they're in a rush to do any cuts. and we can tolerate that. so jim said accept it.

i say tolerate. a slightly nuanced take there. that's really all i see that's happening. >> let's see, sarat, earnings, which may be more important in the immediate term than whatever the fed is going to do. here we are debating whether they move for the very first time in june or that gets pushed off. well, you're going to get more earnings results in june starting in the next week or so. >> preannouncement season is starting so that will be very interesting to see what the market does. if the market can bear that earnings are stronger and are actually meeting expectations without beating it, you could have a stronger market. to your point, if rates move too fast too quickly, the market will not like that. it doesn't matter you'll get investors who don't like it. you'll get algorithms and funds. you will get more volatility and i think investors should be prepared. >> the question, jim, where you want to be invested in this new quarter. you have earnings to worry about. now the possibility of rates start to go back up. you have certainly the

possibility of at least commodity inflation becoming more prevalent and more talked about. here we're having a conversation about, you know, president biden and president xi have a phone call. the treasury secretary is making a trip to beijing starting this week, and who knows what developments are going to come out of that at a time we've been nothing but worried about growth out of china. well, maybe things are picking up there, too. that's not inflationary potentially? >> i mean, yes. you see me smiling for the first time on this show. cvs and united health care have me in a bad mood. if you wonder why i'm in a bad mood, that's it. thank you for putting me in a good mood. you brought up china. that survey that came in over the weekend and our wynn resorts is popping on it, and i know that's specific, but josh was just making this point, there are good things that come out of this as well. i understand that the world is looking for job creation not to be as great on friday so that maybe the fed will cut rates. i'm saying it's good if you get

better than expected jobs numbers, and that's also inflationary. i'm saying it's good if commodity demand is going up because china is recovering if possibly there are green chutes in europe, possibly, very possibly. but this is good overall. now of course nothing is perfect. i said that earlier. yes, if inflation gets out of hand, then the fed is going to have to start raising again. i think a question you haven't asked, which i ask myself in the morning, what am i scared of? i'm scared this does get out of hand and the fed raises rates. we're not talking about that. let's hope it stays off the radar screen, because then you have to worry about what happens with the regional banks, and does that become systemic? right now, we don't have to worry about that. >> forget about the fed raising rates. what if the fed does nothing for a while, longer than we thought, again, and rates stay elevated where they are? forget about the idea of hiking rates. >> when josh said a minute ago he remembered -- and i was wondering what he was going to say -- i thought he was going to

say i remember the late '90s when the ten year averaged 5.5% and the fed funds rate was between 4 and 6%. i'll tell you, the late '90s -- >> i was in high school. >> what's that? well, you were an investor in high school. that i'm sure of. but there were five years in a row of gains in s&p 500. the level doesn't -- the level we're at doesn't freak me out. changes in direction like if the fed changed direction, that would freak me out. >> judge -- >> you talk as though we were at zero. >> mm-hmm. >> so we've gone from zero to 5% in a reasonably rapid period of time. you would agree, right? >> and i got beaten to smithereens on that yesterday. >> a lot of people did because the market went down a lot. >> exactly. >> now we're sort of banking on the idea rates will start coming down from those peak levels. they've come down from the peak level, but the idea that they're going to come down further has

fueled this rally in certain stocks and sectors. >> i remember about four months ago saying to you a couple times on the show that i would be scared if the ten year went below 4%. it was on its way down from 5%. i said i would be scared because that would indicate slow growth or declining growth. i did get scared. we went down to 3.9%. i read chris varrone every day. it's not freaking me out. maybe i'm wrong. >> if rates do stay where they are and the economy slows, the stagflation is worse. so that is something that also keeps me up at night, that if we get that, that is bad for the markets and the economy. >> one of the issues, too, i have nothing on my list. i have, i don't know, 20 pages of notes to work into today's show, not one of which is about new buys from anybody on the committee. there are a lot of people who are all in in this market, right? jimmy all in, i used to joke about that. there are a lot of people who

have bought into the bullish story, right? there aren't that many bears left. maybe this, if it develops into some level of a shakeout, is not necessarily a bad thing either. there are a lot of people on one side of the boat suddenly in this market. don't you get this feeling? >> i think people are either invested in equities, have exposure to the market and they're sitting in 5% cash. there will be something on the side that you can put to work if you get a good pullback. >> shares of general motors, which look to me to be about 1% lower as i go to phil lebeau. he has a market flash regarding that company's auto sales. phil? scott, all of the automakers are down right now. when you take a look at general motors, q1 sales fell 1.5%. keep in mind a big part of that decline is because of a big reduction in terms of fleet sales. remember in terms of auto sales retail is better than fleet, so if you're going to see a reduction, you want to see it on the fleet side. days of inventory supply, 63-day supply. what about the ev market?

so much is being made of gm's pivot to electric vehicles as they ramp up battery cell production. in the first quarter, gm's ev sales fell compared to last year. last year they sold more than 20,000 evs. this year 16,425. not a huge decline but, again, they're doing a pivot now to ramping up production of the battery sales both in tennessee as well as in ohio and, quickly, take a look at shares of general motors versus toyota. why are we showing you this? toyota was out with its q1 sales today. no surprise, hybrids are hot and toyota is cashing in. overall sales up more than 20% in the first quarter. that says it all, scott, in terms of the consumer out there. if they have a chance to buy a hybrid right now, that's what they're going for as opposed to an ev in this market if they're looking to start moving to electric vehicles. >> phil, i appreciate it. that's our phil lebeau reporting

those latest sales numbers from gm, a stock sarat and farmer jim both own. the stock is up 25% year to date. >> it got way too cheap after the uaw. >> that stock giving you the business. >> this could pull back. the whole market could pull back, right, sarat? it's trading at five times earnings. to get to six to seven times earnings is not incon skconceiat all. while they're not selling evs, they're selling internal combustion engines with high margins. >> it was one of the favorite stocks to sell fortax loss selling. the investors have come back and if you look at kind of, to jim's point, where are the earnings going to come from, from regular cars that they make and the transition will take longer. >> let's take a quick break. when we come back, more committee stocks on the move today. tesla is one of them. delivery is falling short. that stock is getting hammered

and it's already had a terrible start to this year. we have health insurers under pressure today. we have the latest on the big boardroom battle at disney. more on this sell-off as well a couple minutes back. trading at schwab is now powered by ameritrade, unlocking the power of thinkorswim, the award-winning trading platforms. bring your trades into focus on thinkorswim desktop with robust charting and analysis tools, including over 400 technical studies. tailor the platforms to your unique needs with nearly endless customization. and track market trends with up-to-the-minute news and insights. trade brilliantly with schwab.

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this after deliveries fell short of expectations. all right, bryn, dan ives was explicit today. he called it a train wreck among other things. how would you assess this? >> yeah, i mean, they sell expensive products. i think even the bears weren't thinking they were going to come out at 387,000 vehicles. the way i look at it is this. in 2020 when they started the factory in shanghai that was a watershed moment. they were able to manufacture in the biggest ev market in the world and that has helped grow earnings. what's happened though? the chinese competitors have caught up. it's not existential but how are they going to compete now in the very competitive market. there's nothing to be excited about over the next two quarters because this company is way too big as a market cap and way too mature for new investors to add

to the position when we know the earnings come out april 17th. i think they're going to have a bad q2. we're going to have to settle in. i think this is a good reminder don't follow in love with stocks. they will break your heart. >> it's down more than 30%. >> i like calls, it went much higher than that. that's my discipline. i'm going to see if it settles in at 160. let the analysts bring their numbers down. i use the full self-driving. you can drive a truck through that. i think it will be a rough year for tesla. i would wait a couple quarters before i look to add to the position. >> you want to talk cvs, you are

attached at the hip on these stocks. >> now i'm in a bad move. >> you should be. it is the biggest drag for the dow. i think that alone has a couple hundred points peeled off of the average. what do you want to do with this? this is related to medicare and medicaid services and their rates. >> the companies haven't come out to say how much it's going to affect them. but the overall sentiment is so negative on the stocks. so as a long-term value investor it's hard to sell at this point but it's in the re-assessment camp. >> for just united health, what about cvs? >> cvs is an operational in the sense it was a turnaround story they would get better margins. how much is this going to affect their earnings going forward. >> are you telling me you're

re-assessing? >> i'm not going to sell and it's not me being stubborn. the health insurance business, i will focus on that. one-third of operating income. within that 30% is medicare. we're talking 12, 15% of operating income is medicare. payments will be 1%. let me say that again, that does not merit -- when you do the math that does not merit a 9% decline. that is not the sort of thing i will sell into. the company will report earnings. i will look to see what they say then. they're going to cut costs and deny a lot of claims. >> you're not tired of cvs? >> my dentist is tired of it because i'm gritting my teeth so much. >> i'm tired of asking you about it. >> i'm sorry.

look, i mean, i could do this analysis like i did all day long and it's a buy and the stock market doesn't agree with me. it's frustrating. >> sometimes the stock market wins. >> anything else? >> no. pippa stevens? north korea fired a suspected ballistic missile into the sea tuesday followed up on a north korean test in march of a solid fuel engine built for a hypersonic mis. experts say if the country succeeds the weapons could reach the military hub of guam and beyond. arizona could be the next state to vote on a measure to protect abortion rights. reproductive rights groups say they have secured the needed signatures to put the constitutional amendment on arizona's november ballot. ohio passed a similar measure and new york, florida and maryland voters will decide on

proposals to expand or protection abortion rights. a tugboat pulling a fuel charge bypassing the key bridge wreckage in baltimore came just under a week after the bridge collapsed shutting down marine traffic in the port of baltimore. officials say a second channel that can support deeper vessels is currently under construction. scott, back to you. up next, the hot streak for commodities, gold hitting another record. we told you about oil prices at a five-month high. we'll find out how the committee is playing in the space next. >> announcer: are you following "the halftime report" podcast? what are you waingti for? follow "the halftime" podcast now. [sfx: wind, rain and rolling thunder] nobody's born with grit. british announcer: rose is really struggling.

it's something you build over time. american announcer: that's 21 missed cuts in a row. [car trunk slammed shut] for 88 years, morgan stanley has offered clients determination and forward thinking to create the future... crowd: stop it! ...only you can see. american announcer: rose, back in the winner's circle. [crowd cheers] [music out]

(grandpa vo) i'm the richest guy in the world. [crhi baby!rs] (woman 1 vo) i have inherited the best traditions.

(woman 2 vo) i have a great boss... it's me. (man 1 vo) i have people, people i can count on. (man 2 vo) i have time to give (grandma vo) and a million stories to share. (grandpa vo) if that's not rich, i don't know what is. (vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts. welcome back. we do have some breaking news regarding a deal and a very interesting one at that, one that david faber has been reporting on this whole time. now we have some fineality, i think, david.

>> endeavor, the multifaceted firm, the combination of ufc, you know well, scott, and world wrestling, is going to be going private. this is not a surprise except in the timing because, frankly, many investors in endeavor had anticipated that the company would, in fact, be taking private by silver lake, the large private equity firm which said it was looking at doing a deal many months ago in the intervening time. the stock has traded in a range, let's call it in the 20s or so. an expectation had been and hope a go private price 30 or more. that is not the case. 27.50 a share in cash. that still says, they say, represents a 55% premium to the unaffected price of 17.72. that was back in late october when there was frustration on the part of endeavor's

management bed by emanuel and shapiro at the share price that then was soon followed by at least the talk of a potential take private buy. we've been waiting for quite some time for the actual deal. there was a question about the financing taking longer. it's a large equity check given the $13 billion plus equity value we're talking about here. silver lake seemingly took its time to line up the appropriate investors to back the equity side of the transaction, including, of course, the debt side. you will be seeing the rolling in of ownership stakes of mr. emanuel and mr. shapiro as well. i'm checking some of the language to maybe sure that is still the case, but i'm fairly certain it is. we'll have to wait and see how happy or not shareholders are. >> it's halted right now. a quick look when it opens. >> in terms of performance of

the special committee here which negotiated and their behalf, a tricky situation where when you're negotiating, when your ceo and president are rolling in to a deal and so potentially want a low price because that's where they get marked and at the same time obviously the only one that can make an offer for you. it's not like there could have been other offers made here if silver lake was unwilling to sell its own stake. >> can i pivot you to disney since that's coming to a head? >> sure. >> there are reports, including your own, that suggest there's a reasonably high level of disney confidence, should i say, in the outcome, though that could obviously change. what do we know now? >> we're still waiting for obviously the final tally. we should know something perhaps as soon as tomorrow morning even though the annual meeting won't start until 1:00 eastern time. scott, from what i'm hearing right now and, again, i want to caveat that, it does appear disney is in a very good position to prevail here. are they going to do so on some

sort of crazy ratio? if nelson peltz is joining the board, that already made it much closer, perhaps, than might have been anticipated. will they get something into the high 50s in terms of an overall percentage of votes in their favor? i think that is the possibility right now from what i'm hearing. again, we are still waiting to hear officially from some of the larger firms, but, again, scott, from what i'm hearing right now it does appear disney is likely to prevail and mr. peltz will not be joining the company's board. that said, votes can change right up until the last minute. we want to make sure that is part of anything we're sharing. >> does the closeness of the vote in the end matter at all to what transpires next in terms of the way that bob iger leads this company forward? if it's much closer than we thought, if it's just a hair when, does that matter? >> if it's just a hair, it might

matter in the sense they would have to think, well, we had an awful lot of shareholders who were unhappy in certain areas. that said, i'm not sure that's going to be the case. and given the emotion on both sides here, i don't really think that disney regardless, as long as it prevails, would do anything differently than it is. they've said they are focused on succession, which has been the key point mr. peltz has been making, something the disney board, he says, and many agree with him, failed that the last time around. on execution, they say we're doing it. on cost cuts, we're doing it. everything you say you want us to do, we're doing. why do we need you? and it would appear at least at this point that disney is in a position of prevailing in that point of view. >> i have a couple of shareholders here. jim, you've said you're on team peltz, but even if he loses, you're not selling. >> yeah, i think that's the clearest point i want to make.

i'm definitely not selling if peltz doesn't get on. my feeling is he can't hurt. to what you were saying, if it turns out disney prevails, i don't think there will be an olive branch extended by mr. iger to mr. peltz. too much blood has been spilt. you go to the operations, and i keep saying this, if we're six months away or less from profitability in disney+, this is where the future of the business lies. this is what replaces linear television which is obviously going away. once you reach profitability, then you're having discussions like you're having about netflix, how profitable. and that's a very positive place to be in with high gross margins. that's where i want to get to and why i wouldn't sell if mr. peltz doesn't prevail. >> to add to that, if you look at the economy is stronger than we expected, well, that means it's good for disney, for theme parks, for businesses. that's why you want to own the stock. things are going in their favor. the economy is staying stronger.

the parts are greater than the whole. the operating leverage from streaming, you get a real multiple. >> and, david, as you know, one of the greatest assets, so to speak, iger has in his pocket is a stock price that's gone steadily higher over the course of the last many months. >> the last quarter in particular and given the stock's reaction so positive to that last quarter when they had far less in terms of losses on streaming than was anticipated. talked about it becoming profitable by perhaps the september quarter or so of this year, scott, that helped them a lot. mr. peltz says, yeah, because we've been pressuring them. and of course disney says, no, that's not the case. we're following the plan we outlined a year ago. >> dave thanks. david faber, i appreciate you reporting on the endeavor deal and insight and disney.

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senior markets commentator mike santoli joining us now with his "midday word," and the discomfort level of some of the bulls is going to be tested a little bit, and maybe that's not such a bad thing here. >> ultimately, yes, it could be a good thing. you don't get the silly stuff we're starting to roll, really get out of hand, and make some instability kind of filter through the rest of the tape. the bond market is kind of, you know, making the bulls move their feet a little bit in the batter's box. i think that is all to the good. i do think we have to see if this thing is bought before we get to a 2% pullback again. that would show you the character of the market has changed the low in the s&p this morning, right at the 20-day average. that's been the trend line, really tight. hasn't been violated all year.

the tolerances are pretty small for this remaining just a nick. i felt like a spoil sport saying, look, it's kind of overbought. just bought the market is broad and the rally more inclusive, it's not some inoculation against a regular pullback. >> i can't remember the exact stat from the number of overbought closes you've had for the s&p, but the most in something like 20-some-odd years. >> and the forward implications of that are not -- they're just kind of like nothing special. >> oh, wow, okay. i didn't realize -- >> and the market barrels higher or the market crashes. you have to sort it out. >> no, but you -- all it takes in these instances is a little thing sometimes of a rate backup to push you over the edge for that moment. >> right. a lot of things have come into the sweet spot of what we wanted in terms of macro data and the rotation in the tape. so it could continue. we'll see. it's a slight test. >> i'll see you on "closing

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welcome back. we kick off a new quarter. we look back at the ones that ended for winners and losers. bryn, we're not going to do nvidia or tesla either, which was the big laggard as we all know. bitcoin, up 71%. talk to me where you think crypto is going now? >> i wish i knew. you know, i could see it going to $100,000, and i could see it going to $20,000. that's how i feel about it. it's a very small position. i think people are interested in it, but my one thing is i still don't understand the use cases

for it. so i'll keep it small and leave it there. what is do you want to do with roblox, down, bhp down 15. >> roblox has been trading, wait till it goes to 30 and tell it at 40. i don't think it will get meaningful until they get bought out or gets earnings positive. i think it's a long-term winner if they go earnings positive. >> a look at your american tower, down about 10% in the quarter. you're adding to that more the >> by loser, you don't go to any of my winners. >> it is actionable. >> i'm adding to it. given where they are, if you look at the secular growth in towers, this is the place you want to be. they are down for the year because of the interest rate trade, but i think the business itself is so strong that even if rates don't come back down you can make money on this stock. >> you want some uber love?

xpo is up 44%. >> uber and meta, i've been taking money off the table. xpo is starting to trim. it's just had such a great run. so deploying it into american tower, raytheon, looking at other areas that we're buying. >> good stuff. we'll do "final trades" next. trading at schwab is now powered by ameritrade, giving traders even more ways to sharpen their skills with tailored education. get an expanding library filled with new online videos, webcasts, articles, courses, and more - all crafted just for traders. and with guided learning paths stacked with content curated to fit your unique goals, you can spend less time searching and more time learning. trade brilliantly with schwab. ♪ ♪

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we have a big show coming your way tomorrow. "halftime" will be live from new york, and before i sit down exclusively with green light capital david einhorn, that comes at 2:15 exclusively. so i hope you'll join me. more immediately, join me on "closing bell" today at 3:00 eastern. excited about that. bryn, find trade. >> yuranium. it's the cleanest energy. china and saudi is all in. after a strong 2023, it's set up to have a strong 2024. >> josh brown? >> ieo, the breakout is real.

all of these stocks are set up for higher highs. >> oil is running again. farmer jim? >> on that note, transocean got that plus $500,000 a day brig contract. >> all right, thank you. sarat? >> same agenda there. slb. love the oil services play. >> all right. i'll see you on "closing bell." "the exchange" is now. ♪ ♪ scott, thank you. and welcome to "the exchange." i'm deidre bosa in for kelly evans. here is what is ahead today. stocks are under pressure, as yields, gold and oil hit highs, with the action, the story and the trades to make against this backdrop. plus, the fed getting ready to speak this hour, as the market is coming to terms with fewer rate cuts. one of our guests says it's about time. here is here. and tesla down more than 5% after deliveries fell below,