friday we're down another 80 this morning. the nasdaq is up hard to imagine it being up this morning. all we did was talk about regulation here or antitrust here or across the pond. >> those big stocks weren't down by much. >> no. wait and see >> join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" is next ♪ first of all, 100% why now? i've entered my fifth year the end of this year, i'll be close to 68 years old. i've always said to the board and the board has been very prepared, i would give them plenty of notice so that they could understand and plan succession in regular order, and that's what this is about. it's me giving them notice that at the end of this year, i plan

to retire. and then, them taking the actions that they've taken >> boeing's dave calhoun says he's stepping down as ceo. good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer david faber has the morning off. premarkets red on this final q1 and plenty of activity for a holiday-shortened week and at least three firms eyeing higher year-end s&p targets our road map begins with boeing, dave calhoun stepping down at year-end the eu launching a probe into big tech, going after meta, apple and alphabet the dow and the s&p posting their best weeks of the year let's begin, though, with the shake-up at boeing in the wake of that company's safety crisis. jim, we heard calhoun with phil, and you said, as predicted >> i just spoke to david i think this is something that kind of had to be done not forced, necessarily, but the

idea that they have to pick someone new. david's going to stay until the end of the year. it's a long-cycle business, that makes sense. but you get someone new in there, maybe you get a little heat i think that the faa is charging -- every single mistake leads back to boeing, even if it's just someone bumping into a pilot seat it's gotten a little extreme so, maybe a fresh face will do something. internal candidate, ms. pope, which i think is very good malinkov is a tough guy. those of us who know him know he was willing to take on apple when he was at qualcomm. he is not the kind of guy who has any allegiance to anyone other than the company so, when you bring someone in like that, he's basically the most honest actor you could find i remember him just -- i did a corporate governance interview with him, and i was struck by, he just is -- he doesn't play for dinner i mean, he just goes, look, he's very quiet, but he's very tough.

>> the price action this morning is deserved? >> it's indicative of the idea that the problems are now not on boeing, because they have obviously taken the action that i think a lot of people just feel it's just easier to sacrifice someone. now, honestly, if it was real sacrifice, obviously, they would tell calhoun to just hit the road they're not. i think what they're saying is, orderly transition this is a firm, by the way, where it's really hard to -- you don't want to just have someone go this is safety this is the gold standard. it's not like they're not making planes anymore look, i think it's going to work out. now, they don't have a cash problem. i know that dave is going to finish buying spirit he will buy spirit in order to be able to make it so they're in charge of the fuselage, but i also see the pressure's off him. i don't think you're going to read a story every day about ms. pope you're just not. you're not going to say, well, she's -- let's just slag her no one's going to slag her, and dave is like, on the way out, why do we blame him?

he's done everything he can. phil knows more than i do. >> your point about spirit and vertical integration is key, because that was a topic in the chat with our phil lebeau. speaking of which, phil joins us this morning with his reflections on the news and the interview. good morning >> good morning, carl. i think what stands out here is the fact that this is a reset for boeing now, you could make an argument, and i know there will be -- i've already heard from people who have said, why isn't calhoun out right now? well, he's staying to basically run the day-to-day operations as they work their way through an intense crisis right now stephanie pope will now move into the head position at boeing commercial airplanes you don't want to just immediately say, all new management, because that would probably add even more pressure to the current situation and this clears the deck for steve to lead a ceo search the last time that boeing went outside of the company and did an extensive, months after months search for the right person, you have to go back to

when jim mcnerny was brought in from 3m. they had a couple situations, and people were saying, what's the deal here? can't they get their act together they brought in jim, and it was the right choice at the right time that's the task for steve now and the board of directors and by the way, dave calhoun will weigh in, in terms of his thoughts about who should be hired in terms of the skillset, not necessarily the person, but in terms of the skillset, what's required, and i think at the end of the day, when you look at all three of these, this is a reset for the company. doesn't mean they're out of the woods. lord knows they've got a number of issues. they've got investigations they've got the faa oversight. a lot of things are going to be happening here over the next several weeks and months, but in terms of trying to map what's going to happen down the road, this is the reset that they were looking for. >> now, phil, this does get them, i think, out of the regulatory woods i mean, i think there are people who say, why isn't calhoun taking action?

suddenly, you have calhoun staying in order to get an early transition, and he becomes much less of what i regard as a distraction, whether he's good or not it really doesn't matter i think they wanted a head they got their head. molinkov is so untouchable that you got to believe whoever he leans toward is not going to be someone who is same-old, same-old he's too tough in many ways, this is a very positive transition, i think >> and the -- and the choice of steve becoming the chair and then leading the ceo search, that's important, because larry kellner has been on the board since 2010, and if you're going to have a new ceo brought in, you want it to be the board's ceo. is larry going to be on this board? would he have stayed on this board another three years, four years? probably not he's been here since 2010. i think the realization was, let's move into steve mollenkopf being the chair, leading the ceo

search, so we can pick our next ceo. i think that's critical for boeing at this point and jim to, your first point, in terms of being out of the woods and whether or not we will see as many headlines, i think a lot of that depends on how quickly they can make the changes that are needed to be made when it comes to 737 max production. this issue of travel to work, this has long been a problem here this is not a new issue. this didn't just come up in the last couple of years this has been going on for a long time, and that's the issue of, if a particular job is not done on a 737 max or, really, any aircraft, if it's not done when it's at this position on the assembly line, send it down to the next position, we'll tag it, come back and do the work. that has created a slew of problems so, as dave calhoun said today, slow down the production let's get it right make sure we get it right. then, we can talk about increasing production. >> couple other questions, phil. one is the machinist union telling "the ft" they're seek

ago board seat to "save the company from itself. and i'm curious about your thoughts as to how the attention seems to be shifting a bit to ual, which we'll talk about later this morning too >> well, first of all, the machinists looking for a board seat, not surprised. remember, their contract comes up in september, and the negotiations have already begun. that's likely going to be a contentious negotiation for all the reasons that we saw with with the uaw and the automakers, and really, with a lot of organized labor and any company right now. we know that that's coming up. not surprised they want to have a board seat whether they're successful or not remains to be seen in terms of ual and the faa, this is a broader problem within the industry, and i've talked with people at a number of airlines you think back to what happened during the pandemic. remember, at first, there were -- not bailouts, but it was money that was given to the airlines from congress, essentially saying, look, this is to make sure that you can

make payroll while we figure out how big the pandemic is going to be at some point, that money ran out. what did the airlines do prudently, instead of declaring bankruptcy, they said, we got to cut staff. who were the people that left at most airlines? people between 50 or 55 and 60 or 65. you know how much institutional knowledge is gone? it's out the door. and yes, the airlines have hired, and yes, they have refilled these jobs. i am convinced that that institutional knowledge going out the door, whether at a manufacturer or whether at an airline, that is critical. that doesn't mean that, you know, everybody brought in isn't trained. but it's not the same, guys. there's a lot of things that go into the maintenance of an aircraft that, as diligent as the airlines are, making sure that everything is done the right way, you know, they went through a big speed bump coming out of the pandemic, and i think we're starting to see a little bit of that. >> all right, so, phil, how

about the justice department investigation, which is really related to seattle it's a west coast one. does that go away? or is that just still here >> no. it continues jim, i think when you look at that investigation, and i know there have been some headlines the fbi says, well, we want to talk with some of the people who were on the alaska airline flights. you may have been a victim of a crime. and that immediately gets people think, oh, is there something nefarious going on here? did somebody purposely not put the bolts in that door i think more along the lines, the way you should look at this, is the justice department, remember, they had a deferred prosecution agreement with boeing that extends through june, and that agreement calls for boeing to keep its nose clean for three years. clearly, that hasn't happened. so, now, the question becomes, do you extend that deferred prosecution agreement? is there another fine to boeing? is it possible that there will be some truly criminal activity? sure, i'm not going to say it's not a possibility. i think it's highly, highly, highly unlikely.

i think this is a case of sloppy manufacturing, and the doj is investigating, you know, just to make sure it's not something more significant >> well, justice still but yes, i totally agree with you. obviously, phil knows more >> phil, appreciate it obviously, hugely valuable to have you there this morning on this huge news phil lebeau at boeing this morning. let's move on to the market's record run as we begin this holiday-shortened week. jim, lot of firms out today throwing out hsbc 5400, goldman toying with a 6 handle >> it's almost as if people are saying, you know what? let's just forget that it's being driven by a couple companies and just embrace embrace the fact that we've got a lot of things going on some of this, i think, is an embrace of what happened last week at nvidia there's a change coming. people are going a.i it's accelerating earnings let's get on board let's not be left approximate behind by a change in the megacaps and they really are

accelerating look, after being out there last week, it's hard not to think that everybody's doing better than you thought >> is that true? >> they don't talk about the federal reserve very much. they talk about blackwell. a lot of these guys -- i saw the stock was down nvidia was up. but it's basically -- i want everyone to think of it like this blackwell can read "moby dick" in a second. blackwell can make a drink for you, shaken, not stirred, with a robot. current robots only know to make a drink by giving you a vodka and tonic. the blackwell is so much faster that if you look at claude 3, which is clearly the one that everyone's using, it will become much wiser the other ones -- people think that chatgpt is robotic, and they think that gemini is just bullet points. people are using claude approx 3 out there, and that's amazon, and a

lot of the things that you see are going to benefit amazon, because they are all in. i think amazon and dell are the two companies that i was shocked are so far ahead of dealing with everybody else with jensen they have -- they have embraced it >> amazon and dell >> amazon and dell my travel trust owns amazon. i came back in thinking, wow michael dell in the front row. jensen will tell you, listen, we partner with everybody, but dell seems to be the -- being able to make it so that's who you call if you want to do the factory of the future or siemens, and amazon web services says, you know what? the faster, the better we'll buy everything at one point, i asked jensen about andy jassy, the ceo of amazon would he buy everything? and he said, he'd buy anything he can get his hands on. there are a lot of companies that want these chips. it's kind of insane. >> it is insane. meanwhile, we got some

regulation news out of the eu today. we know the ongoing stuff with doj and ftc here regarding a host of companies. then, you got the chinese reportedly curbing some use of intel and amd chips. >> chinese government taking some action. boy, they're really pummelling amd and intel. nvidia doesn't make that lower end for the pc i don't know look, i think that europe is now eyes glazed over they seem to want to go after everybody. i spent a lot of time on the apple justice department suit, and i'm not going to say it's fatuous, because it's the justice department same way i can't say the justice department is fatuous when it kwo comes to boeing, because the justice department is too frightening to ignore. i think the apple reaction was strange. you're talking about a three to five years before you see anything i think apple will file a motion to dismiss in may. may actually work. i don't think that people -- there were settlement talks, and

the settlement talks involved, from what i can tell, apple basically saying, listen, we have no problem with a lot of this, which makes me feel that it's much more of a show trial against apple. >> huh >> and it was kind of sad. i felt sad that this is what it's come to it's like, well, we haven't gotten apple yet, let's go apple. particularly because apple -- they came in peace in the talks. and i think it was -- i'm not -- again, it's not shameful it's the justice department. but i do think that they're just like, okay, they're big, let's find some things what they found -- anyone who uses apple or knows apple knows that these were not -- there was no smoking gun i kept on going with them. i said, where's the smoking gun? no smoking gun lot of errors. well-documented errors >> yes >> and look, if jonathan kanter wants to go after them, he can go after anybody that's the thing that we

learned. but if it's big and it's powerful, i think this administration feels like it's standard oil or microsoft in 2000, but the share that apple has is much smaller than microsoft. >> meantime, we're watching images of cook and a bunch of other ceos, by the way, in china meeting with president xi. and then, we're going to talk to an analyst later today about the idea that maybe apple knows exactly what it's doing on a.i >> ben is the strongest now. he's distinguished himself i saw ben when i was out there it's hard to miss ben, because ben is the guy who's been most right by a mile. i'm glad we have him on. i think it's he who laughs laughs last because what will happen is you'll end up speaking to this. this will be your a.i. device. people don't seem to understand that i also felt that the idea there could be a tie-up between the vision pro and the industrial portion of nvidia is just a gimme. if tim comes back and wants to embrace jensen like everyone

else, then i think the stock goes much higher >> right speaking of which, there is some speculation today that maybe there's better clarity on timing of a vision pro getting to china, and cook did make some remarks while there over the weekend. take a listen. >> there's an old saying that if you want to go fast, go alone. if you want to go farther, go together >> right >> we would not be able to achieve our objectives, nor would we have been able to achieve our carbon neutrality on the watch without our suppliers. i was visiting with several our suppliers earlier this week with, like, byd and lens and ever win we found people -- partners not only being receptive but being aggressive and loving the challenge. they've not only been receptive to the goal. they've been innovating and figuring out new ways of doing things huge contribution.

>> cook was there to open the shanghai store, second biggest store in the world after fifth avenue >> well, monumental. i do think, by the way, that if you want to talk waste and you want to talk heat, you want to talk emissions, go talk to jensen jensen huang, i think, is probably a visionary about this. it's one of the reasons why everything is about waste, and everything is about heat he just talks about it constantly, to the point where if you don't talk about it at the very beginning, he -- i think questions like, are you listening? he's hard not to listen to, because he's so much fun look, i was -- what can i say? i mean, jensen is the greatest force in technology today, and i think that tim cook and eddy cue have got to sit down with him on the vision pro, because he's got ideas for the vision pro that are better than what the watch companies have with china. >> we'll get to energy as well, with that big piece in "the journal" today about the future of the grid and the demand that we're going to be putting on it in the next five years

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♪ time for cramer's "mad dash" as we count down to the opening bell >> quietly, the banks have been real stars here, obviously overshadowed with everything going on with a.i. there's a piece here this morning by mike mayo mike's got a hot hand. citi he's saying citi goes higher look at this this is citi on its march to its tangible book value, and obviously is much higher he just thinks -- he's saying, price target 80. hard to disagree with this let's not forget this group is a signature group. you need this group going

higher, and they are wells has been terrific. i've seen jpmorgan all overshadowed now, there's a possibility -- morgan stanley, because of the reddit ipo we need some more ipos but you do have a lot of things going with the bank group, and a lot of this has to do with rate cuts not as aggressive as thought they can't deal with aggressive rate cuts, they don't do as well, but i like this call i think citi's -- it's working >> right well, it's been a chart. technicians have been after this, and a lot of the fundamental analysis >> look at this. i mean, come on. >> yes versus a, what, a 10% gain on the s&p year to date >> yeah. >> they're going to lead us into q1 earnings season are they going to -- is it going to be a good tell? was it a good tell for q4? >> i think that they can tell a compelling story a lot of times what happens with the bank stocks is they may do a number, and they may subdued about credit i think that there will be some credit problems, but they have reason to be able to say, look,

we think that there's going to be a normalization in a normalization, we're going to get a lot more ipos, have a lot more bond yields we'llhave more m&a obviously, if they think there's a change in the white house, there will be tons of m&a. it's interesting because all the agencies seem to go after all the businesses they're running out of time. if they lose, some of these cases will continue. the justice department suit against apple will continue. but again, i think the justice department suit is lacking in merit. >> so, but is your point that regardless of the outcome in november, there might be a lighter touch from here on out >> i think so. >> that's good news for everybody. >> yeah, i think that they're -- i think they have been beaten. they can stop the albertson's deal, which i understand does matter look at the stock of kroger. i mean, kroger -- the stock's been red-hot kroger and citi are two very unsung heroes. it's exciting for kroger to do well, because they're a very good company and they have a lot of a.i., which is amazing.

if you don't have a.i., honestly, i mean, we have to get a.i. we have to be able to see around corners. that's when jensen's, like, you need a robot that sees around the corner i'm like, what doesn't that robot do i'm glad david's not here, because david would be saying we have to smash the robots >> sky net's growing self-aware. >> by the way, isn't there a simulation on the ten? >> on the ten? yes, we're going to keep that a surprise >> yes we are, but it's a special simulation coming. meantime, the opening bell is coming up in less than five minutes, and don't forget. you can catch us any time, anywhere just listen to and follow the "squawk on the street: opening bell" podcast. to duckduckgo on all your devie

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>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. jim was just mentioning a.i. salesforce's marc benioff posing a question on the minds of many investors. in a post on x over the weekend, he asks, how will we know we've hit the top of the a.i. hype cycle? includes a photo of a box of oral b toothbrushes featuring a.i. in the products, jim. >> well, look. marc's having some fun

i think that when i deal with -- i think every company feels like it has to have an a.i. strategy, and a lot of ways, an a.i. strategy is just to say, what's the future look, you could put it through claude i mean, claude 3, say, what do we do? oral b having a genius brush, i mean, i don't know i use this colgate brush it seems like it's genius. maybe it is a.i. a.i. just happens to be what -- do you have any data if you have some data, maybe it shows, let's skew it this way. >> right, right. >> i don't think that there's a top, because i think that there's a lot of companies that really need help and they need -- they need to bring in a dell. they need to bring in -- they have to, like, medtronic is doing a lot of stuff in terms of really great medical equipment that works ge health care j&j. i mean, they're just doing -- it's better. it's a step better than what we have, because it's more

predictive this toothbrush doesn't sound like it's more predictive. marc has oral b. >> you never know. it might catch the spot that you missed >> right, well, i mean, matthew mcconaughey, maybe that's it >> let's get the opening bell at the cnbc realtime exchange at the big board, it's a bond etf. at the nasdaq, it's clean energy company and uranium producer encore energy. energy, actually, jim, just behind info tech and comp services for the year. >> we all recognize a lot of take yoefrz. hasn't been a lot of resistance to takeovers we need to have -- we have to make peace with fossil fuels i think that's what's -- have to be more pragmatic. that is the theme, that we can't just dismiss them. there's tremendous numbers of pipelines coming on. if you look at oneok, they're

transitioning to being oil and gas. when you look at enterprise, they're doing so much to make it so that things are fractured you get a lot of plastic out of it but most important is we're going to be having these very large crew carriers that are going to be able to come out, and i think what's going to happen is we're really going to become an export power now, and i also think that the idea that it's peaking is just false i think that they don't want to overwhelm the market and move oil down they could do that but our companies are -- they're sitting on a lot of oil that they have not drilled. >> yes >> and it's very positive. >> oil today, snapping a three-day loss streak on some of the geopolitical tensions over the weekend, of course, the moscow attack on friday, jim by the way, goldman, this call on raw materials, saying they could return 15% this year as rates decline, manufacturing recovers they're talking copper, gold, aluminum, oil. >> i think that that -- those need china back, and we're still

not getting any sign that china's back actually, i think that china, when you go over the regular business that they would do, say, with a procter, with a 3m, there's -- no. i mean, those companies have no desire to really expand their business to china. they're trying to do business in -- what i kept hearing and mexico and brazil. mexico is so hot, and china is trying to go back-door mexico into the united states, and they will succeed right now >> right well, no surprise, they're reaching out to international business, trying to stem that capital outflow. >> right i thought that, look, you can have copper up without china it's hard, because one-third of copper is china. but actually, it's more. half >> we did get barclay's today cutting nike down to $114 and lulu >> we should talk about nike and lulu i think there's new competitors to lulu. viori is there i think lulu is not alone in its

space. gap is rejuvenated i can't rule out athleta look at gap stores that's been the hot stock, gps lulu has real competitors for the first time in a long time. nike, we're hearing -- i'm not -- my travel trust mis mistakenly owns it it's been a disaster foot locker, we've heard nike is saying, we've got to do more work in the wholesale channel, which is foot locker >> upgrade at evercore >> it's been a very weak stock, but that's about nike being more aggressive, and my problem with that is that nike did not have a good quarter and i think that there's a recognition that maybe their product line needs to be refreshed entirely it was sad i thought nike was sad nike's been a leader a lot of people don't worry. nike comes back. don't worry. i felt worry i felt that if they have to start embracing foot locker more, man, that's the strategy

>> some of the weekend takes were kind of tough >> yes, they were. >> i'm talking about nike as more of a mid market fashion brand now. >> this is happening it's happening very fast in the same way that people didn't see abercrombie, they didn't see -- i mean, new balance is being -- it's a private company. new balance taking a lot of share. i think nike's very worried about new balance. >> although the only dow names doing better at the moment are boeing, which we talked about, and disney today, jim, barclay's going to overweight. >> i think a lot of people feel the more agitation, the better i do think that disney's very focused on making a lot of money, and i think that's correct. they're very focused on keeping nelson peltz off the board i think that they -- i think people feel they're developing some strategies with sports that we don't know about, with jimmy pitaro, who is loved there's a loved guy. everybody loves him. i don't know anybody who says, like, be careful of pitaro no one says that everyone says, sit down and have

a beer with him or have a diet coke with him. he's a very smart guy, and a lot of people, i think, would love to see him be ceo. zblinchts >> interesting barclay's point is that positive earnings revisions are more likely they were at $95 we have a good-looking doc online, alex sherman, where chapek even speaks out >> that was good alex sherman is good i don't mean, like, wow, shocking but yeah, look, i think that there's a sense that disney is a renewed company, and focused on making money by the way, theme parks are back in focus anyone who has a theme park is doing really well. we work for comcast, and comcast has theme park extension, and it's a great business in the absence of having a netflix business >> yeah. >> the new disney -- i've been trying to figure out the espn+, what it gets me, and i'm waiting. >> the skinny bundle >> yeah. i don't know i'd like to know what it gives

me in terms of football. it's not clear >> yes >> well, it may be clear to some, but it's not clear to me how about that >> this is the highest price for disney since august of '22 >> look, you know, is peltz making a difference? i think that any time you have someone saying, you guys better start making more money, the tendency is to think, wow, we got to find ways to make money they got $5 billion in costs to $7.5 billion they have a lot of fat that there's $7.5 billion to find that's a lot of fat. but then i'm reminded that fedex, with its drive business, its drive restructuring, has found just a huge amount of fat. fedex has done very well without any revenue growth >> well, this is mike wilson's big point over the weekend at morgan stanley looking at operational efficiencies >> yes >> trying to offset the tightness of front end rates, which will drive margins higher, which he thinks could lead to higher earnings revisions at the index level.

>> i agree with that we had a lot of companies, you know, opco raised its price target for the s&p they said it could be 22 times earnings versus 21.7, whatever that's just margin expansion >> john goes to 250 s&p. >> i think the margin expansion is uncanny these companies are so good at what they do a lot of companies are laying off. i mean, i'm starting to hear also, there's another tone which says they're weakness in the economy. i think there's weakness in some retail i think the one to follow, by the way, is macy's, and the reason i say that is because i didn't think the macy's bid was a serious bid, and i think that tony spring just came in, and i thought he'd get a chance, and yet the board has said, you know what let's have them -- let's let them in. >> right >> where i felt that macy's had gotten rid of a lot of the fat under jeff i'm following that one that's a big difference between who you get if they -- if the

buyer comes in and gets it i'm also following arm, because arm's doing well, even though amd and intel are being, i would say, punished. so, let's -- not all semis are being punished >> yeah, i think it was barons, two weeks ago, that said arm may be the best growth story outside of nvidia. >> rene haas is incredible i was waiting for the lock-up expiration to buy that stock for the travel trust, did not get a chance i think it's a horse it's doing very well it is this very strong nvidia partner. remember, nvidia tried to buy them the other nvidia partner, just in terms of the food chain, is synopsis so, nvidia makes and designs the chips. synopsis then goes and puts software in and gets it so there's 208 billion transistors, and then they take you to taiwan semi, so you have to have synopsis >> there is this reuters piece that quotes some officials from

qualcomm, intel, google, trying to convince people or clients that they can migrate out of nvidia's software platforms. >> yeah. okay >> do you sense any encroaching competition? >> i don't know. let me make it really clear that jensen, when i asked him, i said, i did chatgpt, and i said, who's your best partner? and h intel came up. they're supposed to be sworn enemies. jensen quickly said, no, they're a partner. everybody is jensen's partner. you can try to get him off his game and say that someone isn't. i questioned him about these companies that are developing competitors, and he goes, yeah, that's good. i like that. i might even help them you can't get jensen off his game that everybody wins you can't. he didn't say that amd is going to win that would be odd, since they're competitors, but he, obviously, has great respect for amd. he doesn't -- he's not a normal executive. he is visionary and does not think about anyone short-term hurting them

he doesn't like stories that say that amazon is developing its own chip, and therefore wants to rival him, because they're the best customer, and he would do anything they want he's not a worrier he's just not. everything he does is about trying to make things better in the world. he thinks about them he thinks about what tim cook said he thinks about whether things are wasteful his favorite thing to talk about is waste >> is waste? >> waste he just does not want waste. he doesn't want excess power he doesn't want any sort of climate change being caused by what he is doing >> right at this level, then, jim, given everything we've talked about, 5,220, is this a level at which you are looking to add to equity exposure >> i was -- like many people, i would love a downturn. i'm beginning to believe that the downturns are so shallow, and that there's so many companies that are doing better than we think, large companies

there are -- jon fortt was out there, talked about it, saw him in san francisco i mean, look, intel is doing the right thing, building here, and then i saw that they had this negative story, and it's a shame, because i thought intel was kind of getting some momentum, because i'm trying to find companies that are really being hurt right now, and there's not a lot of them. the large cap retailers are good the large cap banks are good the large cap industrials are good large cap health care is good. it's hard to find somebody who's bad. >> right i mean, you could look at the russell, still, what, 15% off the highs. >> right well, the smaller cap is harder. these big cap companies have -- they have so much flexibility, and they had -- i guess you have to say they have a lot of fat. >> if that's true, what in the world is going to happen if rates start coming down? >> well, that's why i think that the idea that they're cutting rates at all seems -- >> really? >> look, i thought that powell should have said, we'll have

your back if things cool off there are some pockets of weakness that are hard to find the pockets of weakness tend to be related to younger people not being able to spend the way that older people are, because of student loans, because they're the ones that are being most hurt by inflation. but when you take housing, which should be something that should be hurt, they're still being very prudent about how many homes they build, which keeps the price of homes higher. there's a lot of good out there, carl lot of good. >> yeah. we are going to get some new homes data at the top of the hour by the way, red fin, interesting, almost 6% of listings, rolling four-week average, had a price drop, which is better than we have had the last few years >> yeah. i mean, look, when you raise rates, you get a little bit of a price drop, but i do think that in the end, we're still nowhere near where we were before the pandemic 2019 prices were, you know, 40% higher than they are that is a problem. >> you saw dwac, up about 13%.

10% this morning >> david was saying it's a political story. hard to value on an earnings story since it has very little i wish i could contribute more on that one. i think that that's an ungamable situation. because it doesn't make sense, economically but if you like president trump, and you try to get him out of his jam with money, it's an interesting way to fund-raise. >> yeah. >> it's a fund-raiser. >> it will be a busy day for the former president, not just the payment due but also the possible court date getting set on the stormy daniels hush money case there's a lot going on on the political front there. >> i want to go back to something about the grid that you talked about and how taxed the grid is. >> "the journal" piece >> saudi arabia said, "it's time to abandon the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas," and i think when you have the grid growing at 5% after having no growth, it does require all systems go, and it requires every single kind of fuel. i do think that solar is going

to be 25% of the fuel by 2030, but the intermittent nature of solar and wind is going to make it so that you better start thinking more nat gas, and nat gas is so inexpensive, and the pipes are so good. we're stuck with it or we're going to use it, but we're very plentiful. we have a lot of nat gas >> this is a story that came out last week, but basically, demand for electricity's been pretty stagnant for years >> for years >> and now, the five-year projection of demand growth has doubled in one year. >> yeah, and i do disagree with the story that says it can't be found. there are a lot of companies that are pretty forward-looking and they're not going to extra a problem. obviously, it would be better if we had nuclear power, because nuke is -- it's pretty fungible. you can really make a lot of power out of it. but there are a lot of companies that i think are ready, and you just have to put the datacenters where they are and i know this because i had prologis on. they built 500 million in --

they did 500 million datacenter last quarter, and hamid -- this is the biggest by far of the companies that do -- they're a reet that does warehouses. they're not word about this. not worried at all >> that's reassuring >> it is >> a new datacenter every three days >> we need a lot of datacenters. if you're this blackwell, if you buy the blackwell, which is so much faster -- that's the new nvidia -- it's not a chip. it's a super computer. it can do a lot of thinking. it has common sense, which is great. jensen does not say -- i mean, he's become jensen at this point. >> like the oracle >> yeah. he does not say that they're going to take over the world, because he said, look, they listen to us there was a question that i got about whether, like, if it reads a book and takes in a lot of people, does it -- people's view, does it develop its own view and we don't know. we don't know if it does but this is not a robot that is

lifting pieces of jell-o this is a smarter robot than jensen thought >> there's a look. that's good. i'm glad we got that >> i still think the vision pro was the -- that robot turned out to be a stupid robot doesn't have any real -- that's all a funny thing. that's not a good robot. there. that robot, okay, that robot -- >> shaken, not stirred >> that's a mocktail, because if i had come back after 5:00, they were ready with the tito's, but this was a very sweet drink, not what i expected. the guy -- that guy is -- he's so smart by the way, just you know, when you're with the nvidia people, they don't -- do not lord over how smart they are just the opposite. they're really, really helpful, which makes you like them more and more and more, which is why when i was in the vision pro and i thought i was in a car, when i stepped out of the car, i lifted my leg, because i thought for

sure i was in a car. i opened the hood. this thing must be paired with either -- carvana -- garcia loves the show garcia, listen you buy this have people look at the cars before they just come. when i bought a car, i got it and said, no, i don't want that. take it back it would have been better if i had looked at it in the vision pro. there it is. yeah i'm about to get in the car, and i'm afraid of falling. but then i sit down, and it turns -- there it is i've got the -- at one point, i say, can i get a coffee? but that was ill advised right there. i'm looking for the coffee and i asked whether it was a stick. i can't drive a stick. they all kind of laughed because i guess they all can drive a stick. i don't know >> that's a real good look at our future >> i'm begging i'm begging eddy cue to call jensen and say, let's get together thi this is the biggest b-to-b story in years he's got to make that call i can't make the call for him.

i'm a journalist >> yes we'll take a break here. dow is down 100 on a busy monday as you can tell. watch bonds as well. we'll get the housing data in about 15 minutes bostic and lisa cook on the tape today. although later in the week, we will get waller on wednesday, powell on friday, along with pce. should be interesting. right now, ten-year, 4.24%-ish back in a minute

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watching bitcoin a get a little bit back. stick with us for the top of the hour an old friend returns to post nine in a moment

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>> inyou should look at the semis because micron being up this much tells you that group is still strong. there is a belief of course, that china is going to hurt amd and intel, but i do point out that this has now become the leader in ai because it's not controversial.

up, you know, look i've got to tell you, supermicro is the leader. >> got another initiation today. >> it will be positive don't throw away amd it doesn't make any sense. they are the other company people to turn to if they had the software themselves, which very few have because there's a big stranglehold nvidia is 100% of the market right now because they bite into the fact they created the software and the hardware and they're well ahead i think the idea of having 100% is odd, but i think they have the best product, but people will graf svitate to amd and they're not sure everything is allocation. >> how about tonight >> i've been going after housing, you know, and i had fortune grants it's just cabinets i don't know i'm very convinced that the housing cycle is still alive and

well when you lower the prices they're really alive and well. that's why these guys, when they raise the price targets, they should be thinking, one cut. just one cut there's no cut that's needed, but i don't want to go against it. >> sounding a lot like bostic this morning. >> bostic is really on target. >> we'll see you tonight "mad money. we'll get housing data at the top of the hour. don't go anywhere. th grit. british announcer: rose is really struggling. it's something you build over time. american announcer: that's 21 missed cuts in a row. [car trunk slammed shut] for 88 years, morgan stanley has offered clients determination and forward thinking to create the future... crowd: stop it! ...only you can see. american announcer: rose, back in the winner's circle. [crowd cheers] [music out] rylee! from rylee's realty!

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well, this is exciting good monday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla, and wilfred frost nothing's changed. >> thank you for having me, guys. >> we've got more here in just a moment we're live from the new york

stock exchange david has the morning off. we upgraded. take a look. we're coming off our best week of stocks of the year. giving a little back not much still groups that are green like energy, materials, health care, they're all up today, but technology is dragging us down communication services, information technology, and your worst performing sectors take a look at the dow it's about 90 points as we kick off the week welcome wilfred frost, our very good friend who is in town he's a sky news anchor now, but also part of the cnbc family. >> part of the cnbc family, comcast of course, bought sky. i'll be back 48 weeks a year it's honestly such a joy to be back it feels like yesterday. it was literally two weeks ago. >> when we were doing "closing bell" together how long since exchange together >> how is the gig? how do you like it over there?

>> i love it it's great to be back. why would you go back to the uk? obviously that stuff's in my blood, and, you know, we've got an election year and it's fascinating times as well.cud oe markets and business-centric and it's not new york. to keep my foot in the door over here is great fun. >> you also have an amazing family there. >> that's the main reason, exactly. moving back, we have had a little boy, and my brother's had a little girl at the same time so the timing is fantastic. >> lucky us that we get to have this >> all week long on the 1:00 p.m., right? >> all week long and we'll be back a couple of weeks later in the year, and also back, you know, covering a little bit of u.s. stuff for the uk, and yeah. >> that's good >> you have many fans. this is an exciting week for all of us. >> do you know what's happened since that it's kind of been the story thu.s. markets have taken off and we're doing this flatlining in europe >> you never make the right

currency trade either when it comes to your earnings. >> we'll talk about that. >> we are 30 minutes here into the trading session. here are some movers we're watching this morning, shares of boeing are actually rallying following news that the ceo dave calhoun is stepping down at the end of the year. there are also a number of top leadership changes at the company. we'll talk more on the fallout in just a moment. amd and intel both taking a hit on reports that new guidelines in china will phase out u.s. processors in government computers and servers, blocking chips from both of those companies. and then watching apple, meta, and alphabet today officially facing an eu probe under the sweeping log, and we'll break down the news on what comes next. let's get to rick san ttoll. >> that is pretty strong start in february. they were up 126,000, and if you looked at the departments, they were up 35,000 existing home sales are up 9.5%, but new home sales disappointed

just a bit we're expecting seasonally, just analyzed the pace of 677,000 we ended up with 662,000 from a slightly revised 664,000 it is a smidge lower the good mood in february for those other metrics didn't really hit new home sales, but it certainly does seem as though the public is a little bit more excited in this space, and for more information on that, we'll go to diana. >> i'll tell you why i think we got a miss here, and that's because this reading in february is based on signed contracts people are out shopping during the month making that decision, and in february, that's when the rate on the 30-year fixed went over 7% and stayed there for the vast majority of the month so you had buyers in january who were looking at a 6% rate, february at a 7% rate, and that may have been the cause of the pullback we do hear from the builders that they're buying down mortgage rates into the 5.5%

range, but that rate could have dissuaded some buyers and some may not have qualified at that rate there was also a drop, 7.5%, that's year of year. the builders are lowering prices as well as buying down rates and we saw supply tick up to an 8.4-month supply to an 8.3 if you look at this number which i love which is the number of homes that have been sold, but not yet started, that's also dropping as well so we are beginning to see a little bit of weakness after the new home market had been doing much better obviously thacn existing because there were so few homes for sale on the market again, the builders are not immune to higher interest rates. v >> okay, diana olick we have busy economic data the headliners will come on friday when ewitwe get the pce h happens when the markets closed

because of good friday there's a lot to look forward. we have fun earnings including gamestop and carnival, and we'll get the last read on gdp as we wonder what on earth the first quarter will look like here in the u.s., and i wanted to highlight the regional manufacturing numbers because there's a global theme here. we've seen manufacturing as one of the weak spots in the economy. we're going to get news from dallas, kansas city, all these regional places. there are signs that manufacturing is on the upswing. it's starting to rebound pantheon put out a great chart over the weekend showing philly and s&p global these are the two we've gotten so far showing that we're coming off the loads and ticking back up. >> yeah. obviously the data continues to be fantastic over here relatively speaking compared to the rest of the world. of course, it was a theme coming off last week with these central banks pointing to the fact they're willing to cut even though the data is improving a little bit the only snapshot is there's a

slight difference in the europe and uk versus here, on the inflation side of things is you did the hard work first, got down to those 3% handles and now the delay to cuts is more whether it's ticking up. in places like the uk and europe, the hard work hasn't been finished yet and we're about to get the best prints yet. the next couple of months, you might start seeing two-handers on the inflation data, and we're getting closer to that moment of cuts and the market is celebrating. >> it's a big reason why goldman has a recall on materials today arguing for bullish action on copper and aluminum and even oil, and base rates coming down, and even on the manufacturing comeback cramer said you need china to play along to make that playbook work. >> that's kind of tbd as they transition their economy from the high growth days people wonder in the stock market, we rallied and it's been the german dax even with weaker data compared to the u.s it's a good cocktail to have

central banks all over the world moving toward easing at a time where growth at least in the united states and others is not in recession >> last week, the nikkei was up 5.6% it's down a percent or so. continental europe was decent, but footsy was up 2% one day alone. >> they turned dovish, right >> 4% away from its high, which is the perspective we're looking at, and the difference between the two countries. the one thing i turn back to which i find striking that we're celebrating here in the u.s. of everything we do, but the fact we're now expecting maybe three cuts during the course of the year, but we're up 10% when we're expecting five or six cuts so it really is a market that wants to celebrate even the slightest hint of good news. obviously we'll see from here how many cuts we get, and if the market gets disappointed, if they don't materialize the bank of england's rhetoric

last week was far more dovish than the restrained andrew bailey he doesn't like to comment >> if the fed is giving the green line on this, i'll highlight the bostic quote because atlanta fed president saying this. it continues to be more resilient and more energized than i had forecast or projected, and so as the consequence, i've sort of rekal crate cr -- re-kcalibrated when i think it's appropriate to move he's kind of redirected the fed thinking, and in the face of that to your point, wilfred, the market rallies because the assumption is there's still an easing bias. fed chair powell didn't do anything to talk back the three cuts that the market is expecting this year, and then you also have these powerful structural forces like ai, like

glp-1s that are keeping investors excited about the equity market in the face of treasury yields. >> and we have margins and s&p a earnings for the year. a lot of discussion about how corporates are getting more efficient on the back of technology like ai. >> love having you back. big shakeup we have to talk about this morning at the c suite in boeing. let's get to phil labow who just spoke with the joutgoing ceo dav calhoun. >> you have executive moves here that will play out, some immediately, some through the rest of this year. let's as you take a look at shares, let's talk about the big moves. let's start with the ceo position dave calhoun announcing today he will be stepping down at the end of this year that means there will be the beginning of a ceo search. here's dave talking with us earlier today about whether or not this was entirely his

decision >> first of all, 100%. why now? i've entered by fifth year at the end of this year, i'll be close to 68 years old. identif i've always said to the board and they have known, that i would give them plenty of notice so they can plan succession in regular order. that's what this is about. it's me giving them notice that at the end of this year, i plan to retire, and then them taking the action that is they've taken. >> them being the board of directors, and there is a change at the top of the board. the new chairman is going to be steve mallonkov. he stays on the board through the annual meeting in may and then steve mollen kopf will be

the chairman he will lead the new ceo search, but dave calhoun says he will also weigh in with his thoughts on type of person who should be picked to run this company >> i want somebody who knows how to handle a big, long, long cycle business like ours it's not just the production of the airplane it's the development of the next airplane our next leader is going to develop and call out the next airplane for the boeing company. it will be a $50 billion investment that will all happening on that next leader's watch. i would like somebody who clearly has the experience inside our industry. >> so those are two of the big changes, and stan diehl is out as the president and ceo of boeing commercial airplanes, basically the manufacturing division of boeing stephanie pope who was coo used to run boeing global services

and she now steps into the role of ceo of boeing commercial airplanes. she's got a lot on her plate that is where the both of the problems are at boeing it has to do with the manufacturing problems, quality control, safety guarantees, in terms of their customers, but big moves, guys, that will play out. you know, some immediately, but others will play out over the months to come >> there's no doubt about that great to see you, by the way i'm interested overall on what your take is of calhoun's legacy, out of ten, how his tenure has been. if i think back a couple of years, he was trying to restore trust in the safety of the brand, and you kind of look at things now, and you ask the question, has his tenure been a failure? >> i don't know if i would call it a failure i would say it has been rocky and turbulent, and look. people will look at this latest incident with alaska air and say, yeah. that guy was a failure he couldn't fix boeing

keep in mind where they were when he took over as ceo for de de dennis mullenberg. it was a disaster in terms of how this company was being operated and they had no manufacturing that was going op, no deliveries that were going on they had to set up shadow factories and and in the midst of all of this, he's trying to get his arms wrapped around improving quality controls at the company. you can make an argument that he did not skeeucceed in terms of driving quality, and the pressure on dave calhoun has been immense, especially within the last several weeks as you've heard airlines complaining about the company needing to get its act together with manufacturing, the inconsistency with delivery process or how many claims would be made this year and in the quarters to come so yes would i say that -- when you look back on this tenure, it was turbulent and rocky, and that there were areas where he did not succeed? you bet, but i'm not sure that i

would call it 100% failure because you've got to look back to where this company was when he took over for dennis. >> and also where it's going to be when he leaves. he's staying on another nine months why is he staying on in this crisis moment? >> his belief -- his belief and i'm sure the board probably agrees with this is, if you replace him right now, along with stan diehl, you've essentially locked off the two most important people when it comes to correcting the problem at commercial boeing airplanes with stan diehl out at that position, stephanie pope moving in, there is perhaps a little bit of continuity. it doesn't mean that things aren't going to continue to be taking place here between boeing and the regulators, specifically the faa, they still have to improve their relationship with the airlines, but now they have some time here with steve mollenkopf, the new chair leading the ceo search, this is their time to say, who do we

want who do we want to lead this company and do a complete reset in that's the challenge. >> no, and it's deja vu. excuse me, deja vu for this company a little bit thank you, phil. as we head to break, here's a road map for the rest of the hour big tech in the crosshairs again. eu regulators launching an investigation into meta, apple and alphabet the fallout ahead. and stocks coming off the best week of the year. should you keep riding this rally? and why apple might have the last laugh when it comes to ai we'll talk to the analysts behind thiinrestg s teinnew call today. "squawk on the street" is back after this break

her uncle's unhappy. i'm sensing an underlying issue. it's t-mobile. it started when we tried to get him under a new plan. but they they unexpectedly unraveled their “price lock” guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the “un-carrier”. you sing about “price lock” on those commercials. “the price lock, the price lock...” so, if you could change the price, change the name! it's not a lock, i know a lock. so how can we undo the damage? we could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. their connection is unreal. and we could all un-experience this whole session. okay, that's uncalled for.

we're analyzing what they have changed weaver looking at their compliance report. it will be available for everybody to see, and we'll have a series of workshops where apple can present to us and to the world what it is that we're doing, and then we will see if it will open noncompliance cases. one of the things we'll look at is of course, if there is a fee structure that prevents developers and their customers to get the most of what the dma has to offer that would be one thing. second is that -- what we call sort of a regulatory dialogue with apple because in a period of time, they considered banning web apps

also you saw that the epics were taken off -- off the app store as well. >> that was two weeks ago and it was a very strong hint there from the european top trust regulator right here on this show, talking about the focus on apple. it was a strong hint of what we got today. the eu launching an official probe into the company alongside alphabet and meta. this is the sweeping new digital markets act. this is to rein in big tech. apple, meta, they were the gatekeepers that needed to provide reports on compliance which just came into being, like, a few weeks ago, wilfred clearly she hinted then and according to the probe today, has problems with apple, meta, alp alphabet, and if they are compliant. >> the law was passed in 2022, but they were given a lag to give the tech companies to fall

into line before they applied it quite quickly after applying it, despite a decent period of time, they're coming out and saying, you're not in line, and today's comment she said, have you been able to resolve that with mere discussion, that would have been solved already she said, we've discussed it with them and they haven't fallen in line the doj case, they'll have a decision within a year, which of all these legal case, but particularly the eu is quite quick. you still get the sense that they want to resolve this sensibly going forward as opposed to bring this forward. the top fine they can give is 10% of global revenues which could be an awful lot of money for just one regional player to kind of hold, but 20% to 30% of revenues, these three companies have from eu so they can't ignore it, but there's a sense

they could work together. >> revenue over what period? last year or -- >> i was there to get that number, and it's broken into 20% or the 30% for each of them. the other context, if you are considering banning tiktok in the u.s., the u.s. has other domestic players that can fill in a gap even if it would annoy some tiktok influencers. there's no option there in europe europe has no other players that could fill this gap. the eu can't take things so far as to want these companies to leave that particular region of the other three company, meta, they're saying can you, and we'll find out what they decide either you let us take all your privacy data or we charge awe fee, and they're investigating whether or not that's okay for meta to do that, and it'll be interesting to see what the conclusion is. >> joining us now is a stanford law professor and he oversaw the

justice department's antitrust department it's great to have you here, doug, and before we get into the doj case against apple, on europe, i mean, it's kind of a pile on, and they're going about it in very different ways. they have this tech legislation. should the u.s. and europe be more coordinated here? >> it is a pile-on, and it would be nice if they were more coordinated, but they have very different philosophies, increasingly so. europe is much more inclined to regulation the u.s. proceeds on a case by case basis it's important to understand that the dma is a kind of regulation the u.s., if there's a dispute about conduct, the plaintiff has to show that the particular conduct was actually bad under the dma, it's a regulatory scheme that prohibits or has certain requirements for categories of conduct and whether or not these comply with the regulations, not whether the

particular conduct they're engaging in is actually anti-competitive, and i think that difference and approach makes it very hard for both the u.s. and europe to fall in line. >> so you sound -- i sense some criticism. you sound -- a hint of criticism there in the regard for how europe is going to about antitrust regulation >> well, my personal bias is to be skeptical about broad regulatory prohibitions of the dma. there's a philosophy, and pros and cons and do you want to go detail by detail or is it more efficient to have broad, categorical rules? that's a big subject of a lot of debate i come out on maybe the u.s. side of that, but it's not an easy argument. >> what do you think the u.s. is trying to accomplish which raises that question at the doj when it comes to apple when you compare the two

approaches, the u.s. had a much broader complaint suit against apple. everything from the hardware to the software to the apps, and it's not clear how it's going to -- what the end result is going to be. we just know it's going to take a long time to litigate. >> the u.s. is clearly under the complete leadership. it's heading this case, and it's very aggressive, and they want to push -- they want to not only deal with perceiving the networks on the platforms, but they want to push the law on some important respects. the complaint is a very sophisticated complaint. it's a serious case and it's largely based on existing laws and it's heavy on the microsoft case that was decided in 2001, but it pushes the boundaries in important ways and gives the ability to control its network to choose the partners that it'll deal with on the network

they're concerned about those kinds of issues and the government is helping they'll put together a set of facts that will motivate the courts to maybe move and push them toward what the legal rules are >> doug, i'm really interested in your take on two things on all this both eu commission and doj combined, but it seems like regulators are fighting yesterday's battle we're at a moment in time when everyone is regulating ai and we're talking about things about the app store and privacy information on social media sites which we were discussing many, many years ago, and it feels like this is yesterday's battle on your view on that, but also whether ultimately the punishments end up being things that fundamentally force the companies to change their businesses models or whether it's a slap on the wrist-type fine that they'll be able to take in their stride >> well, there's a lot in that question the same item that was made of

course, in the microsoft case just by yesterday's battle, and to some extent, that was correct. the importance of cases like the apple case in my view lies more in the legal rules, the legal precedence that might be established than in the particular remedies they might give in the individual case because those remedies might or might not actually change things in the market depending on whether it was yesterday's news or it's still active conduct, but the value is still valid in the microsoft decision i think to ask the government now to get in and regulate ai, it has a different problem which is, yes. it won't be behind the curve, but it might not know what it's doing, because they need to have experience and knowledge and understanding before you try to regulate these important areas in the technology. so i think haste is not

necessarily a good thing in terms of whether the remedy in this case could make a real difference to competition, i think in one really important way it could, there is -- there is an issue lurking in the application, of inoperatability. there's a push by regulators to have these networks to open up to complement other people and other services and products as a way of promoting products. this is a way of competing against the networks and sales and if the government prevails in a make way in this lawsuit, i think it will move the needle in requiring either offerability of platforms like apple's that have decided to be open to outsiders to some extent and try to extend that >> doug, appreciate you weighing in today really valuable to have you. coming up after the break, china kicking into high gear to

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breaking news out of the fed. let's get to steve liesmann. >> lisa cook saying that fully restored price stability might take a cautious approach to easy policy over time i think these remarks are important in context to what bostic from atlanta said on friday she's in harvard where she used to be a professor. she said things are moving into better balance, echoing the chairman's remarks, but she's afraid risking easing might be too much the label market remains strong. the path of this inflation has been uneven and bumpy as well. she said the supply is at ease,

but demand has been dampened by higher interest rates along with waning fiscal spending inflation has not come down as the goods i fnflation has, and some can be slower to adjusting which i guess is probably a positive sign along with her on housing inflation, but she says it should continue to fall because the index lags what's going on in the market there are some signs the market is normalizing the quick rate is falling among other things and she says, whether wage growth is doing this, it's strong as of late, and artificial intelligence is a potential source of growth, and ultimately she joins bostic in being very, very careful here about talking about rate cuts and easing it sounded to me like the market took what powell said as a promise, but it's well to remember these docs they write

down are forecasts >> i'm so interested you're saying everyone is being so careful about talking about rate cuts and guiding towards this. i mean, the conclusion late last week was we're set for three this year from the fed and they stuck to their guns. was that too hasty >> yeah, i think the market was a little bit overexcused in terms of not assessing or internalizing the risk the way the fed is internalizing it. ask yourself a very simple question, will what will folks say if the march numbers for inflation don't show improvement or even take up a little bit i think a march rate, a bad march inflation number, or even a lack of progress in march could take june which is now at a 70% probability and bring that down below 50. so i think that risk is out there, and once you get done with not cutting in june, you have to ask yourself, are three rate cuts possible, or are it most likely to be two? >> it's getting cut, at least

from some of the individual members. steve, thanks. steve with some of the comments out of lisa cook. in the meantime, roughly a hundred ceos meeting with china's leadership this week let's get to what's on that agenda hi, eunice >> as one delegate told me, the americans are not hiding anymore. unlike last year when an alleged spy balloon had spiked u.s./china tensions. this beijing forum was much more upbeat over 30 u.s. ceos took part with american companies making up one of the biggest delegations apple, micron, qualcom, and others tim cook downplayed the economic woes, but he also said that china was carefully studying long health concerns of u.s. companies such as cross-border data flows

delegates told me that companies had been approached to have a meeting with president xi jinping on wednesday the details are still being worked out, but despite this overture, people were telling me that they're still very confused about the messaging to beijing separate to the conference, there have been reports now that the government has promoted its procurement guidance which has been revised, which in effect, would excise intel amd and microsoft from government computers. what was interesting is that the companies that would make this list all head to pass the safety and reliability guidance, and those were only domestic brands and five out of the six cpu companies on that list are also on the u.s. entity list. meanwhile, amd's ceo has been in china for this conference. >> yeah.

so eunice, is the takeaway that as long as you're not in the semiconductor business, you're okay doing business in china if you are an american company? >> i think the takeaway is as long as you're in line with what president xi jinping wants, then you are going to be okay here. of course, the problem is not everybody is going to be in line with what president xi has been pushing, which is this self-reliance campaign, and an import substitution policy. >> eunice yoon, thank you so much. still ahead here on "squawk on the street," a solid rally for stocks as we head to the final trading week of the first quarter. charles schwab's iesngnvti chief is with us we're back in a couple

at pgim, finding opportunity in fixed income today, helps secure tomorrow. our time-tested fixed income suite, backed by over 145 years of risk experience, helps investors meet their goals. pgim investments. shaping tomorrow today. pgim investments. here's why you should switch fo to duckduckgo on all your devie duckduckgo comes with a built-n engine like google, but it's pi and doesn't spy on your searchs and duckduckgo lets you browse like chrome, but it blocks cooi and creepy ads that follow youa from google and other companie. and there's no catch. it's fre.

we make money from ads, but they don't follow you aroud join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today. welcome back now with your cnbc ynews update. donald trump is back in court this morning for a hearing in the new york hush money against

him at the same time he faces a deadline to post a bond to cover the $454 million civil fraud judgment against him now if he doesn't post the bond, the state of new york can start to seize some of his marquee properties in this hear, we are expected to get a trial date in the case, involving alleged payments to adult film star stormy daniels four suspects accused of killing more than 130 people in a terrorist attack at a moscow concert hall appeared heavily beaten as they were charged by a russian court yesterday. photos and videos released by the court this morning show each of them with various levels of injuries all four faced charges of committing a terror attack and could face life in prison. and the united nations security council is set for another vote today on a resolution to demand an immediate ceasefire in gaza. russia and china vetoed a similar measure last week.

wilfred, i'll send it back to you and welcome back. >> thank you so much, silvana, and good to see you. the dow and s&p coming off their best week of the year while the nasdaq sits near fresh highs, but in the red today. can the record continue as we wrap up the first quarter? a look ahead to q2 we have lizanne saunders now great to see you my first big-picture question as we heard before the break, if three rate cuts don't indeed materialize this year, does that derail the equity market i guess we've adapted from the expectation from five or six down to three, and market is up 10% today. >> exactly and i think that's the important question because the market has adapted as we went from not just a march start, but, you know, a peak seven or so rate cuts and the data just wasn't supportive of that and the fed had to push back, but the market has been fairly resilient you see a lot of movement under the surface though, and i think that is a function of changing expectations around fed policy,

movements in bond yields it's really caused some shifts in leadership more toward the cyclical end of the spectrum with sectors like energy and materials, and even financials doing well in terms of shorter term breath measures so i think around those expectations of fed policy, even if they become milder in terms of what cuts are expected, that -- you could continue to see rotation under the surface driven by some of those moves. >> are you worried about election political risk for equity markets or was this sort of last significant hurdle over the weekend? >> i think it has the potential to be a volatility driver. i'm stating the obvious here, but this is going to be an emotional year as it relates to the election, and it's, you know, one uncertainty that sits alongside the uncertainty with regard to fed policy it's probably not a stretch to say volatility could pick up in part because it has been so suppressed when you go through

an extended period of low volatility you're at the mercy of potential catalysts for a pickup in volatility, and i would easily put the election in that mix of course, the real issue though is as we go through campaign season hearing what's proposed on both sides, the likelihood of those proposals actually turning into policy is likely to be limited by divisions in congress and majorities regardless of what happens with both houses that are likely to be fairly narrow >> when you look at where sentiment is at the moment and the main indicators you focus on, is it flashing red or just amber, and right away, would that trigger a 2% or 3% pullback or retrace much more of the 20% to 30% gains we've seen since october last year? >> sentiment is no doubt on the frothier end of the spectrum, but we all know that sentiment at extremes often serves a contrarian indicator the timing associated with that is incredibly variable

even when it's overly frothy or overly dire as sort of moment in time trigger for a contrarian move in the market, it's really just a condition that then establishes maybe a bit more risk on the downside to the extent there's some sort of negative catalyst as opposed to it being a trigger for trimming or selling simply because it's moved into frothy territory. we learned in the late 1990s that sentiment can get frothy and stay there for an extended period of time i think you need that catalyst and not just sentiment itself not acting as a condition for a move down. >> what is the bigger risk is it the economy and earnings and inflation surprise on the upside, and the fed won't be as able to cut as much as the market is hoping for and maybe

at all, or maybe the opposite? >> that scenario i'm not sure is a huge risk. i think that's part of the reason why the market has been resilient in the face of the move down in expectations in terms of the number of rate cuts and moving out in terms of the start point. i think the biggest risk for the market would be economic growth slowing without attendant rolling over and inflation, and kind of the reverse goldilocks scenario that certainly would be i think one of those catalysts >> stagflation. >> what we just talked about well, yeah what we used to call stagflation, but that's generally first of a longer period of time, so it's more of a near-term deceleration in economic growth, but without a deceleration in inflation. i don't think that should be represented as the base case here, but when you talk about risks for the market, i think that's the larger one. >> although, liz ann, you have noted the dual mandates and the fed chair talked about the lash

ma -- labor market, and then the cpi numbers after that i wonder which of the metrics for march are going to be more important? >> yes both i think very important because, you know, two months ago we had the much out of the expected jobs report, and the combo cpi, and ppi report then you've got a mixed jobs report last month which question ed -- quelled some of to those concerns, and the combination of the two is important, but i think with the jobs report, it's not just the headlines that i should say in the unemployment rate, but increasingly what's important is the innards of the report it's the prior months, and the division survey and the household survey it's labor force participation it's hours worked. it's wage growth so i think you can no longer, you know, turn cnbc off after

you see those first two payroll and unemployment headlines and get the real story you have got to stay, you know, stay tuned and, you know, use the fine-toothed comb. >> you should never have done that. >> you can never turn cnbc off or you can have both on. liz ann, my question again, big-picture one is what you make of seeing some insider selling and that kind of picking out the ratio to insider buying as this stretch to levels it hasn't been since 2021 i guess some of these big tech ceos are so wealthy that $100 million sales isn't really big. >> exactly. >> did you take note of that or not really >> i take more note of extremes on the spectrum versus the selling. there are so many reasons why insiders might be selling. it could be simply because profits have been -- they've become significant, they might have some other in some cases personal reasons i don't tend to put as much weight when it's on the selling

end of the spectrum versus the buying end. >> great to see you. thanks so much. >> you too. still to come, apple shares deep in correction territory now. who will have the last laugh when it comes to ai? we'll discuss with one analyst who thinks so. that's after the break (luke) this will be a gold mine of local intel. just you wait. (marci) right. so, tell us about this corn festival? (stylist 1) oooh you got your corn pudding... you got your corn chowder... (marci) so... is it safe around here? (stylist 2) sometimes. (luke) if a family of eight were to need a cold plunge, where would they find it? (stylist 1) ...and then they dip it in butter, then bam, it goes right in. (stylist 2) ...really cute vampire bar. (stylist 1) the reverend does like a blessing on the corn. (luke) donut shops. how far from here? (marci) no eyebrows? (luke) think of how light it'll feel in the summer. we've got to run. eleven thousand more neighborhoods to go! (vo) ding dong! homes-dot-com.

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we're get . reports out last week suggesting apple is looking to partner with google in a bid to get its gemini a.i. model on new iphones. dismissing that saying, quote, do you really think apple is running around the world talking to a.i. leaders because they have nothing google is the one who needs them joining us this morning is the

analyst behind that note, ben. we talked about your note today with cramer in the 9:00 a.m. fascinating. you're suggesting anybody who thinks they're behind is not an adept long-term student of apple culture. >> that's right, carl. well, i think you have to go back in time and realize, this company has a history of convincing a lot of leaders to make apps or do something with them while they perfect the ecosystem for which it's consumed go back to itunes. steve ran around, talking to a bunch of the music companies saying, look, we got this vision for $1 a song. lo and behold, itunes saved the music industry his convincing skills helped change the world then. he did it again with the iphone where they didn'tnecessarily make all the apps are for the iphone they made some but they made everybody else's apps better and made it so you could enjoy them i think they're doing the same thing in a.i

yes, they're talking to google but they're talking about having google be one of the many models you have access to so this new kind of app store can take advantage of a.i and i think they're probably doing it again and tim knows how to do this >> so, when do you think we begin to get clarity on the endgame? y think prices of the stock adjust, over what time period, do you think >> well, i think in june we should start to see them lay the groundwork for this new app store, for how it's going to work with a.i. how you can buy a.i. apps through the app store. i'm sure apple will have their own apps, as usual, an a.i. assistant. hopefully they upgrade siri, which is probably in need of that and then we'll start to see how this could flow through to the services line. if there starts to be a narrative that services can accelerate growth, that will be really helpful and then we think there's a huge upgrade cycle coming for iphones, probably in 2025, where

the silicon and the software is really optimized for processing a.i. at the edge, on your iphone so you have a new latency excellent experience in terms of the stock price, look, most people know it's a really tough quarter because of china. but then the stock may be able to find its legs afterwards when we go into this conference in june, and then out of it, if they can do a good job saying what their services will be. >> ben, i want to ask with the latest eu antitrust probe and obviously hitting quite a few tech companies, not just apple, but adding to the doj case, whether you think that, you know, conclusions of those cases aside and which way they go, but could that distract tim cook and management from other things like the a.i. initiative or is that not a significant risk? >> oh, it is a risk. i think tim's got to really show that he doesn't get distracted

here and i think he will. i think when you look back at microsoft and the big analogy over the weekend that everybody wrote about in the news is that bill gates said that he took his eye off the ball from mobile, he took his eye off the ball for music, by the way. and, obviously, that allowed the ascension and apple and others to happen. tim, look, they're going to be fighting this. it's going to take years it's not an area where i would have a particular edge i do happen to think there's a little less teeth in this than other things the government has done, but that's tough to proclaim i think that as long as they have an a.i. story that comes out with services, seeing increased revenue and bringing more to the platform, we're going to be okay and that's what they need to do. i think they're already making changes within the app store, within the way that they're going to do text messages, et cetera, that are already

remedying a lot of the stuff the government said. but we think that as long as they come out with a good a.i. strategy, we'll probably be in the right place when we come out at the end. >> we talked regulation and a.i. then there's china, which as you mentioned has been a headwind for business lately. that's where tim cook is we just had a report from beijing where he's with president xi and a lot of other business leaders is china an opportunity? does it make you more bullish or more bearish about apple's prospects? >> well, i think there's a few more quarters of tough china sales just given the momentum there and given what the checks are showing. but i think that what i really liked is that, if it's true they're talking to baidu, that is a really smart move it's probably not different than what they'll do with the other models in other countries. but if they're able to get on the right side of a.i. in china with a state-backed strategy, you know, that will be a good

thing. that could help turn the tide. i think there are a few more tough quarters in china. we start to anniversary the big declines and we'll see where we turn out but the iphone at itself is getting very old if you look at where they're echoing the covid bump, where a lot of people bought new iphones to sit in their homes, actually, in 2021 those are all going to be potentially obsolete to enjoy a.i. that could be the big catalyst, more than china next year. >> ben, appreciate it. alwa gd cckn th u.ysootohe iwi wilf, we'll see you at 1:00 and all week long. "money movers" after this. e, or buzzer beater he won't wax poetic on. ad nauseam. but oh how he can nail a software solution like the best high screen pick and roll you've ever seen. you need ron. ron needs a retirement plan.

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backed by over 145 years of risk experience, helps investors meet their goals. pgim investments. shaping tomorrow today. you know doug, ever since switching to workday you've been a real rock star. rock star? what do you know about rock stars? billy idol? i mean where's the skin-tight leather? my shoes are leather. where's the unnecessary zippers? that thing! billy, rock star is just how doug feels when he uses workday. thanks, rory. i'll show you rock star! be a finance and hr rock star. workday. for a changing world. billy idol just stole your golf cart! investment opportunities are everywhere you turn. do you charge forward? freeze in your tracks? or, let curiosity light the way. at t. rowe price, we ask smart questions about opportunities

like advances in healthcare and how these innovations will create a healthier world tomorrow. better questions. better outcomes. good monday morning. welcome to "money movers." i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen. today, how healthy is this bull market wells fargo warning of some downside risk in stocks. their senior strategist joins us next. management changes at boeing stock higher on news o